Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?
That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.
IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.
This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...
- 3.35 Newmarket
- 3.50 Cheltenham
- 4.17 Ripon
- 5.10 Clonmel
...from which I'm heading to the 4.17 Ripon, a 13-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on heavy ground...
Last time results aren't great for this baker's dozen, with Illusionist's runner-up finish at Thirsk last week the only placed effort. He was only beaten by a short-head running on over 5f that day and off the same mark should be involved over the extra furlong. Almost half of this field are winless in seven or more races as Remarkable Force, Fools Rush In, Danzan, American Star, Illusionist and Braveheart Boy have beaten in each of their last 14, 19, 8, 10, 17 and 10 races respectively.
May Blossom, Remarkable force and Fools Rush In all make debuts for their new yards today and the latter has had wind surgery since his last outing. Most of these ran at Class 4 last time out, but Danzan drops down a class, whilst Thornaby Pearl steps up a grade.
Braveheart Boy is denoted on the card as being a fast finisher, but he might well need the run today after 244 days off the track, but he's not the only one without a run in the last eight weeks, as Bay Breeze, Danzan, Fools Rush In, May Blossom and American Star all return from breaks ranging from 166 to 201 days.
Most of the field have already won over today's trip, but May Blossom, Remarkable Force and Ey Up It's Maggie are the exceptions. the latter has, however, scored here at Ripon before now, albeit over 5f, whilst Bay Breeze, Fortamour and Thornaby Pearl have all won over course and distance as per feature of the day Instant Expert...
...which actually paints a fairly sorry picture. Bay Breeze and Fortamoour are both 4-time winners here at Ripon and have won five times at the trip, but there's not much to crow about here. A couple look interestingly weighted, as Illusionist and Fools Rush In are now rated at 15/16 pounds lower than their last win and Illusionist came very close last week, but I suspect/hope that the place stats give me more to work with...
...and they suggest that Danzan might be worth looking at from an E/W or place perspective here. Illusionist's case is further bolstered too. Course specialist Bay Breeze is in stall 1 today with the benefit of the rail alongside him, although as you'd expect on a straight run on difficult ground, there's not much advantage from any part of the stalls...
That's not the case from a pace perspective, though, as this is how those 28 races above have been won...
...which based on the field's more recent efforts is probably better news for those above the red line than below it...
Summary
He doesn't seem suited by that pace chart above, but Illusionist is probably the one to beat here, especially if he runs anything like he did last week. This is a pretty modest bunch of truth be told and the race shouldn't take that much winning. Elsewhere Bay Breeze loves this track, has the rail to keep him straight and should be up with the pace, so could be a possible E/W threat, as could Danzan, whose place stats on Instant Expert were probably the pick of the field, but you could probably make a tentative case for many of these, as they all seem much of a muchness.
The 5.00pm market from Bet365 (only book open) looked like this...
...and whilst I'm not surprised that Illusionist is the favourite, I was rather hoping he'd be a bit more attractively priced. That said, it's definitely his race to win/lose. Bay Breeze is too short to back E/W for my liking, but the 14's about Danzan is interesting, as is the same price about Grant Wood.
Not a race to dig too deep in the pocket for, mind.