The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where Island Bandit would of the the most obvious immediate interest. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...
- 2.15 Ripon
- 3.40 Newbury
- 6.20 Worcester
- 7.15 Bellewstown
The sharper eyed amongst you will have noticed that Island Bandit from The Shortlist runs in one of the free races above, so it would be a little remiss of me not to take a look at the the 3.40 Newbury, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good/good to firm ground...
Featured runner Island Bandit has won two of his last three outings and along with Cabinet of Clowns, he comes here on the back of a win last time out. Bodorgan and Remarkable Force were in the frame on their last runs, but the latter is one of a pair (Intervention being the other) who are winless in five or more ( 9 & 21 respectively) races. In fact, although Intervention is denoted as a fast finisher here, a Flat record of 1 from 21, a run of 21 consecutive defeats and a two-step rise in class is enough for me to rule him out of contention straight away.
Cabiney of Clowns, Monte Linas and the out of form Remarkable Force all step up a class (and that should put paid to the latter's chances too), but two of the field (top-weight Classic and Crack Shot) are dropping down from Class 2 with the latter having a second run in handicap company, just under four weeks after his handicap debut and all ten runners here have raced inside the last four weeks.
As you'd expect from his position on The Shortlist, Island Bandit is a former course and distance winner and is in fact, the only previous Newbury winner in the field. Mind you, only half of the field have been here before! He has also won over a mile away from Newbury, as have Metabolt, Cabinet of Clowns, Sea Eagle and Monte Linas, as documented below on Instant Expert...
...where Island Bandit's numbers really do stand out and Intervention looks weak again. There are plenty of red blocks above, but most of them are from sample sizes of five races or fewer, so I think the place data might prove helpful here...
Well, that wasn't entirely helpful, but it does suggest that many of these should run well enough under the expected conditions. Classic has, however, failed to make the frame in four attempts here at Newbury and Bodorgan looks weak on going/distance. Island Bandit's record on the going is also interesting, with all 6 places (from 13 runs) being wins. Boom or bust, perhaps?
If he's going to land another course success, he's going to have to do it from stall 9 of 10, though, and our draw analyser does suggest he'd have been better off drawn lower...
This doesn't of course, mean that he can't win, but to overcome the draw, our pace analyser suggests that his best tactic would be to get out quickly and stay out for as long as he possibly can...
...especially as our pace/draw heat map says that high drawn front-runners have the best of it over a mile here at Newbury...
...which is great news for Island Bandit, based on his most recent efforts...
...and those average pace scores aligned with today's draw generate the following pace/draw heat map...
Summary
The market seems to favour Classic here as the early 9/4 fav, but I'm not entirely convinced. He has failed to shine here at Newbury, hasn't really tackled this trip and would prefer the ground to be softer. There's no disputing his ability, Team Hannon don't throw runners straight into Group 3 action after a seven break if they don't think they're any good, but I'm not sure 9/4 represents any value. He does, of course, has a good draw and a 6lbs weight allowance and I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself unburdened by the weight of my money! 😉
Instead, I feel more drawn to Instant Expert and the pace/draw heat map, where from low to high, Cabinet of Clowns, Island Bandit and Crack Shot catch my eye and whilst featured runner Island Bandit is carrying a 5lb penalty for a recent two-length success, he has conditions to suit and has two wins and a runner-up finish under today's jockey. He might not quite get there today, but at 11/1, Island Bandit has to be my E/W pick, whilst Cabinet of Clowns wouldn't be a bad call at 10's either after winning two of his last four.
As for Crack Shot, much might depend on how Island Bandit runs and if he tows him into the race. If he gets the break he needs and builds on a promising handicap debut last time out in a higher grade at Glorious Goodwood, he could well be the winner here at 9/2, but I'm playing if relatively safe with my E/W picks.