Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.
As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.
HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!
My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...
...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...
...including the 6yr old mare Sarah's Verse, whose record at Bath over the last 25 months reads 11132220221!
Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...
- 3.00 Goodwood
- 4.50 Curragh
- 7.15 Limerick
- 8.25 Pontefract
- 8.30 Curragh
- 8.40 Worcester
...but I think I'll have a look at H4C horse Sarah's Verse in the 3.25 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 5½f on good to firm ground that is already firm in places and may well quicken up in the sun...
It's a reasonable-looking contest for a lowly Class 5 handicap, featuring two LTO winners in the shape of bottom-weight Redredrobin and Four Adaay. The former has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last five outings, as does top-weight Coup de Force, whilst featured horse Sarah's Verse, Starsong and Vaunted have all won one of their last five.
The latter makes a yard debut for John O'Shea and her 244 day absence since her last run is the longest of the nine runners. Hello Me has been away for 16 weeks and Hersilia for just over six months, but the other half dozen have all raced this month already.
Bottom-weight and LTO winner Redredrobin is up a class here, but escapes a penalty for her win last week (apprentices handicap), hilst both Yard debutant Vaunted and fast finisher Granary Queen both drop a class. Top weight Coup de Force is also noted as a fast finisher and she drops two classes after a defeat by just half a length at Class 3 three weeks ago.
Of Sarah's Verse's excellent Bath record, she is 111322022 over course and distance and none of her rivals have won over today's trip, although Granary Queen has won here at Bath over a mile whilst the returning Vaunted has scored over 5f here, albeit on debut 25 months ago.
Instant Expert then tells us that five of the seven to have raced on good to firm ground have won on it and that half a dozen of this field have won at Class 5 and that a different six have won over 5.5f to 6f...
Hello Me has also won at Class 3, whilst Coup de Force, Granary Queen, Hello Me and Four Adaay have all won at Class 4, but the latter would prefer slower ground or even the A/W although she has placed well on Good to Firm, as you'll see shortly. Granary Queen actually has a better record at Class 4 than Class 5, so I'm not concerned about her not being good enough here. Starsong and Redredrobin, however look like Class 6 horses on past form witht he former only really running well on the A/W.
Overall place form looks like this...
and taking flat races in isolation...
From those flat place settings, these are the ones that would interest me most...
...and strangely they're drawn at the extremes of the stalls in boxes 1, 2 3, 8 & 9, yet despite this not being a straight sprint, the bend doesn't seem to have made a huge draw bias...
...and I'd not be dismissing any of the nine runners purely on draw. What is, however, generally accepted/expected here at Bath is that the quicker you're away from the gates, the better, as those setting the pace tend to do best. This isn't just anecdotal, as expected we have the numbers from those race above to back this up...
...and here's how my shortlist have approached their last four contests...
Summary
I narrowed the field to five and decided that I wasn't too bothered about the draw. This placed more emphasis on pace and from recent efforts, it looks like Hello Me would be the pacemaker, but she can't be my winner here. She has won just 1 of 11 on turf with her best form coming on the A/W. She hasn't been seen for 16 weeks, so might need the run and hasn't won any of her last eleven races anywhere, since scoring at Newcastle in December 2021. She has only made the frame in one of those 11 defeats, so she's even vulnerable from a place perspective here.
Sarah's Verse has raced as a hold-up type of late and that's a concern, as is the fact that she's 5lbs higher than her last win here three starts ago. The hold-up tactics worked that day with the ground being soft, but as quick as it's likely to be here, she may have too much ground to make up. It should also be noted that 9 of her 11 Bath outings all came during April to September 2021 with her other two runs coming a year ago and seven weeks ago.
All of which almost brings me alphabetically to Coup de Force, Four Adaay and Granary Queen and I think they'd be my placers here today. Four Adaay won last time out, Coup de Force was a runner-up two classes higher and Granary Queen is a consistent placer (9 places from her last 11). All three have won at Class 4 and Granary Queen has won at this track before.
The manner of Coup de Force's runner-up finish LTO at Class 3 suggests that she's the one to beat and whilst it could be tight between the other two, I think I marginally prefer Granary Queen's consistency.
No odds available at 4.10pm on Thursday, so I'll need to revisit the market later, but I'd hope to see Coup de Force at around 10/3 or even 7/2. I suspect, the other pair will also be popular, rendering them too short for an E/W pick, but Sarah's Verse might be worth a small punt in case any of the trio flop.
Coup de Force opened at 10/3 with Bet365 at 4.30pm with Four Adaay the 7/2 second favourite. Granary Queen opened at 13/2.