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Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.10 Beverley : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Switched right start, held up in rear, kept on final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG

...in an 7-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1, on Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

As ever, the racecard is a mine of information (ignore the odds, we don't carry enough firms' prices for that to be totally accurate)...

...and the above data is what I'm hanging today's bet on with a 4yr old gelding who won over a mile at Newbury LTO 26 days ago and whose form includes finishes of...

  • 124421 in his last 6 starts
  • 12441 in blinkers
  • 39121 in July/August
  • 1221 over a mile
  • 1242 going left handed
  • 312 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 122 here at Bath
  • 122 over course and distance

The reports above are a great way into analysing the stats available to help you form a bet and they are good enough to carry your selection(s), but I'm going to try and add a little meat to the bare bones of those numbers, as follows...

Jockey Hayley Turner's 5 yr record at Bath of 6/28 is actually 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 25.53pts (+98.2% ROI) over the last two seasons, including...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 10.24pts (+64%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 16.24pts (+162.4%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 8.74pts (+67.2%) on Firm ground
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.19pts (+206.4%) on horses trained by Marcus Tregoning...

...whilst she is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 14.74pts (+210.5% ROI) at 7/1 and shorter in fields of 5-10 runners on Firm ground, including that 2 from 3 as above for Marcus Tregoning...

...who, as indicated by the 30 on the racecard and the corresponding 30-day report, is in decent form of late and it's also worth knowing (IMO) that since racing came out of enforced hibernation, his milers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 11.33pts (+13% ROI) with those sent off shorter than 4/1 winning 4 of 5.

Marcus is, as you've seen above, 12 from 42 at Bath over 5 years, indicated by the C5 and the subsequent report, but it doesn't tell you that more recently, he was 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 15pts (+88.2% ROI) at this venue last season, including 5 from 11 (45.5%) for 14.87pts (+135.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

And the last of the reports above is the LTO winner snippet. Closer inspection shows Marcus' LTO winners are 20 from 65 (30.8) for 57.93pts (+89.1% ROI) since the start of 2017 with those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days winning 18 of 45 (40%) for huge profits of 69.07pts (+153.5%).

The final piece of the racecard jigsaw from above is the top ranking of the Geegeez Speed Ratings (speed rating is a bit of a misnomer really, as it's more a neural rating than pure speed) and our runner's position at the head of those ratings is pretty self explanatory.

All the above suggest we should be there or thereabouts today. I had a look at the pace/draw and you want to be drawn low (we're in stall 2) and you preferably need to get on with it. Our runner seems to have two styles, held back (pace score 1) or running prominently (pace 3).

Pace score 3 is what we'd like to see today and the pace tab suggests that one horse might be a lone front runner. If that's the case, that could help us as the pace looks like it's coming from stall 1 and we could get a decent tow from the leader. Should that all pan out for us...

...we'll be well placed with... a 1pt win bet on Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.00am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.40 Ayr : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5 (Went right start, led, headed over 1f out, weakened towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the pointers are on the racecard...

A winner last time out (pretty comfortably too, over 5f at this track 12 days ago), from a yard with a good record at this venue as denoted by C1 and C5, which is put into numbers by the Trainers Course 5 year report. The bottom line is my own saved Query Tool angle, highlighting a handful of trainers to keep an eye on here at Bath.

So, why Michael Attwater at Bath?

Well, since the start of 2017, his overall record is fairly nondescript at...

...but in handicap contests here at Bath over the same period, his runners are...

...and although it's not a huge sample size, there are too many winners/runners for it to be a coincidence when 14% of his winners are coming from 3.4% of his runners. And it's even more striking when you look closer at those 31 runners because they are...

  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) from male runners
  • 9/28 921.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) over 5/5½f
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 21.42pts (+89.3%) aged 3-6 yrs old
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 22.42pts (+97.5%) during June to September
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 16.77pts (+64.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 18.32pts (+140.9%) sent off at 6/4 to 4/1
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 8.46pts (+169.2%) from LTO winners...

...whilst 3-6 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 4/1 over 5/5½f during June to September within 25 days of their last run are...

...with the two defeated horses finishing as runners-up and LTO winners winning 3 from 3 for 7.81pts (+260.3% ROI) profit, including Cappananty Con's win here LTO 12 days ago...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Chepstow : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8 (Towards rear, headway over 4f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

A pretty simplistic approach today as suggested by the racecard...

We've got a 4 yr old filly who ran really well in defeat LTO when beaten by a length at a higher grade a fortnight ago at Newmarket. Erissimus Maximus was a further length behind her that day and he has since gone on to win at this grade at Haydock a week ago, whilst Chitra, another 4 yr old filly, who was also behind her has since stepped up to Class 4 and was only beaten by half a length last night.

So, with the form of that race seeming to be working out, getting to go off the same mark dropping down in class is another positive for the selection, but let's now got back to the racecard for our supporting data.

As well as showing her form, age, class movement, days since last run and that unaltered mark (OR) of 75, we also see where I'm getting my numbers from. The C1 & C5 icons are repeated in the Trainer Stats report and my saved QT Angle says that Michael Attwater is one of my trainers to look out for here at Bath, but why?

Well, that 10 from 43 record here over the last five years is solid enough to hang a bet on, when allied to what I've already said the horse. but what interests me of Michael's 10 from 43 here  is that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 4/1 are...

all of which were over 5/5.5 furlongs and also include...

  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 7.73pts (+128.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3 from 4 (75%) for 6.32pts (+158.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.54pts (+227%) in June/July

I told you it was a simplistic approach today, but I think there's enough here...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (although a couple of firms were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.40 Haydock : My Valentino @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Slowly away and hampered leaving stalls, held up in rear, ridden over 2f out and made no impression) The less said the better : just poor.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is probably high enough in the weights right now, but that's why we're getting a decent price. Conditions look in her favour and jockey Rhiain Ingram's 5lb claim will hopefully help, as should the jockey/horse familiarity.

We're talking about a horse who has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for 42.07pts (+210.4% ROI) profit at an A/E of 2.93 and from those twenty Flat runs, she has the following records under today's conditions...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 46.07pts (+287.9%) in races worth less than £3,500
  • 6/15 (40%) for 47.07pts (+313.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/15 (40%) for 47.07pts (+313.8%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 51.07pts (+464.3%) on Good to Firm
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 45.54pts (+414%) in a visor
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) for current trainer Paul George
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) in trips longer than 7f
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) over the last two seasons
  • 4/10 (40%) for 35.56pts (+355.6%) going left handed
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 42.84pts (+612%) under jockey Rhiain Ingram
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 29.01pts (+414.5%) here at Bath
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 11.38pts (+568.9%) over course and distance.

As all six wins came from the top four sets of data above, we can combine them to show that she is 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 53.07pts (+589.7%) on Good to Firm ground in 7-12 runner handicaps worth less than £3,500.

And of those 9 runs, she is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 50.54pts (+842.3% ROI) when wearing a visor beyond 7f for Paul George over the last two seasons, including 4/5 under today's jockey, 4/5 going left handed and 2 from 3 here at Bath (runner-up when beaten) with all 3 runs having Rhiain in the saddle.

She's also Paul George's only runner at this track today and of Paul's already decent Flat record of 16 wins from 79 (20.25% SR) for 43.33pts (+54.9% ROI) at odds of 10/1 and shorter (an angle worth noting), when he is represented by a sole handicap runner at a venue he is 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+231% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 7/14 (50%) for 48.9pts (+349.3%) in races worth less than £6k
  • 6/15 (40%) for 41.63pts (+277.5%) with female runners
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 48.52pts (+441.1%) at odds of 5/1 to 10/1
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 42.84pts (+475.9%) on Good to Firm
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 33.39pts (+556.5%) here at Bath
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.8%) for jockey Rhiain Ingram

...whilst females sent off at 5/1 to 10/1 in races worth less than £6k are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 47.25pts (+787.5% ROI) and these include 4 from 5 for today's runner Princess Way, 4 from 4 on Good to Firm ground, 3 from 4 here at Bath and 3 from 4 for today's jockey...

...and when all of the above factors have aligned, Princess Way is 2 from 2 including a win over course and distance...

...leading me to...a 1pt win bet on Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by 888Sport at 8.05am Thursday with Bet365 a full point bigger if you're able to get on, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!