Tag Archive for: Bath racecourse

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/09/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following handful of runners to consider...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Kilbeggan
  • 4.42 Bath
  • 5.03 Southwell
  • 5.30 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Hamilton

...giving me a total of eight UK races to choose from, the highest rated of which are a pair of Class 4 handicaps at Bath and Kempton, but Ashariba from the TS report above only faces five rivals, so we're off to the 4.42 Bath from the free list, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a right-handed trip of just beyond 1m3½f on good ground that is currently a little softer in places, but the forecast is for dry weather...

None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ciara Pearl (won two starts ago) and Bas Blue were runners-up, whilst Divine Presence (also a winner two starts ago) and One Glance both finished third. Ciara Pearl has won four of her last eight and five of her last ten, Miss Dolly Rocker won seven races back and Ville Natale won three races ago, but the bottom three runners on the card (One Glance, Bas Blue & Baynoona) are still maidens after 3, 8 and 4 attempts respectively, whilst Spirit of the Bay has lost eight in a row.

The top four of the card (Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence & Ville Natale) are all dropping down from Class 3, as is One Glance who makes both a handicap debut and a turf debut. Spirit Of The Bay and bottom weight Baynoona both step up a class and this will be Baynoona's second run in a handicap but her first run for new handler Susan Gardner.

Five of this field are still three year old, putting four year olds Ciara Pearl and Miss Dolly Rocker alongside the 6yo Spirit Of The Bay as the trio not receiving an 8lbs weight allowance here. Miss Dolly Rocker is also the only runner here to have tackled this trip before (5th of 8, beaten by just over 5L LTO), but four (Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence & Spirit Of The Bay) have raced here at Bath before for a combined 1 win and 4 placed finishes from 8 efforts. Instant Expert shows Ciara Pearl as the one to have scored here, as she landed a Class 5, 1m2f handicap here at the end of April...

Not a great deal to write home about here, which is unsurprising for a field short on wins but Ciara Pearl's Bath win stands out. Spirit Of The Bay's recent poor form has mainly come in this grade and 1 win from 6 isn't great and probably explains why she's now 11lbs below her last win and if truth be told, the place stats don't paint her in much of a better light either...

...but they do look reasonable for Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence and Bas Bleu. One Glance clearly gets the trip, but has yet to run on grass. As for the draw, I expanded the search criteria for distance, going and field size to get a meaningful/workable sample size, but the draw seems inconclusive...

,,,there's not much in it from the win stats, although those drawn highest have fared slightly worse, but it's the lower drawn runners who haven't quite made the frame as often, so I'd not be hanging my hat on the draw data too much here. If we then look at how those 100+ races above were won, a much clearer pattern emerges..

...backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...which shows that front-runners prevail no matter where they are drawn. We then look back at the field's most recent (or all in One Glance's case) runs to see how they might run here...

...and although we've no out and out front runner here, it wouldn't be a huge leap to suggest that Ciara Pearl (drawn low) might take this on after three prominent runs (or further forward) from her last four.

Summary

Ciara Pearl is the form horse here and drops in class, she's the sole course winner in the field and seemingly most likely from the pace/draw heat map, so she'd be the one for me here.

Bas Blue may well be an 8-race maiden, but has been in the first three home in five of her last six races and came within a neck of landing a 1m4f handicap at Newbury at this grade last time out. A similar run here puts her right in the mix. Divine Presence has been running well of late recently and would be in my thoughts, but for the fact that she's likely to be off the pace and if handling the switch to turf, One Glance is interesting on handicap debut after a pair of third place finishes over 1m4f at Kempton and could be an E/W contender based on these odds at 5pm Tuesday...



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/07/24

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following pair of runners in the same race...

...14-day form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 5.05 Tipperary
  • 5.25 Thirsk
  • 6.10 Tipperary

...and I think I'll have a look at the pair of Robert Cowell-trained sprinters in the 7.00 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 6 Classified Stakes (all carry 9st 9lbs, with 3yos receiving 5lbs) over a left-handed 5f on firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Katar was a runner-up and both Captain Bentley and Wedgewood made the frame. In fact Wedgewood is the only one in the race with a relatively recent win, having scored at Lingfield two months and three starts ago with all her rivals having failed to win any of their last six (or more) races.

Daley T is denoted as a fast-finisher, but as a 12-race maiden with recent finishes of 576785, one might think he's not a fast starter! Call Me The Breeze will wear cheekpieces for the first time here, as she aims to make the frame for the first time after failing to do so in all eight career starts, whilst it's a debut in a visor for La Verite who has gone one better/worse by failing to place in her eight outings.

All bar Zeno (71 days) and Daley T (135 days) have had the benefit of a recent (9-34 days) run and with the whole field carrying 9-9, bar the trio of 3yo's carrying 9-4, it's La Verite who is supposedly best off at the weights with Captain Bentley and Katar joint worst.

That said only Bernard Spierpoint (6 from 55) and Wedgewood (4 from 24) have actually won a race to date, the other seven are a combined 0 from 82. Of those seven, Katar has managed to make the frame in 11 of 32 defeats, but the other half dozen have made the frame just 3 times in 50 total races.

Three of Bernard Spierpoint's six wins and all of Wedgewood's four wins have been over today's trip, but the field is a combined 0 from 12 here at Bath and wit h a field so bereft of winners (all Wedgewood's win have been on the A/W), we're slightly better off skipping straight to the place stats on Instant Expert...

...where as expected Bernard Spierpoint, Katar and Wedgewood are the only ones of note and they'll emerge from the three lowest stalls, but there's very little to be gained from the draw here...

...with the emphasis purely on speed over this fast 5f, it pays to be up with the pace...

...which looks like being more good news for at least a couple of our trio from above...

Summary

Not a race to dwell on, nor one to chuck too much money at, so I've done neither. There's no shying away from which three horses are the most likely to score here and it's the three lowest drawn runners, Bernard Spierpoint, Katar and Wedgewood.

Katar is still a maiden after 32 starts and despite a reasonable 34.4% place strike rate, he's hard to recommend as a win bet. Wedgewood is the most recent winner in the field, of course, but has yet to win on turf, making the frame just once in eleven starts, so almost by default, the pick is Bernard Spierpoint and even he's on a 14-race losing streak, but does have a 40% place record on the Flat.

And for those of you wanting to place an early bet, here's how the market looked at 4.45pm Tuesday...



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Racing Insights, Friday 26/05/23

Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including the 6yr old mare Sarah's Verse, whose record at Bath over the last 25 months reads 11132220221!

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 3.00 Goodwood
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 7.15 Limerick
  • 8.25 Pontefract
  • 8.30 Curragh
  • 8.40 Worcester

...but I think I'll have a look at H4C horse Sarah's Verse in the 3.25 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 5½f on good to firm ground that is already firm in places and may well quicken up in the sun...

It's a reasonable-looking contest for a lowly Class 5 handicap, featuring two LTO winners in the shape of bottom-weight Redredrobin and Four Adaay. The former has two wins and a runner-up finish from her last five outings, as does top-weight Coup de Force, whilst featured horse Sarah's Verse, Starsong and Vaunted have all won one of their last five.

The latter makes a yard debut for John O'Shea and her 244 day absence since her last run is the longest of the nine runners. Hello Me has been away for 16 weeks and Hersilia for just over six months, but the other half dozen have all raced this month already.

Bottom-weight and LTO winner Redredrobin is up a class here, but escapes a penalty for her win last week (apprentices handicap), hilst both Yard debutant Vaunted and fast finisher Granary Queen both drop a class. Top weight Coup de Force is also noted as a fast finisher and she drops two classes after a defeat by just half a length at Class 3 three weeks ago.

Of Sarah's Verse's excellent Bath record, she is 111322022 over course and distance and none of her rivals have won over today's trip, although Granary Queen has won here at Bath over a mile whilst the returning Vaunted has scored over 5f here, albeit on debut 25 months ago.

Instant Expert then tells us that five of the seven to have raced on good to firm ground have won on it and that half a dozen of this field have won at Class 5 and that a different six have won over 5.5f to 6f...

Hello Me has also won at Class 3, whilst Coup de Force, Granary Queen, Hello Me and Four Adaay have all won at Class 4, but the latter would prefer slower ground or even the A/W although she has placed well on Good to Firm, as you'll see shortly. Granary Queen actually has a better record at Class 4 than Class 5, so I'm not concerned about her not being good enough here. Starsong and Redredrobin, however look like Class 6 horses on past form witht he former only really running well on the A/W.

Overall place form looks like this...

and taking flat races in isolation...

From those flat place settings, these are the ones that would interest me most...

...and strangely they're drawn at the extremes of the stalls in boxes 1, 2 3, 8 & 9, yet despite this not being a straight sprint, the bend doesn't seem to have made a huge draw bias...

...and I'd not be dismissing any of the nine runners purely on draw. What is, however, generally accepted/expected here at Bath is that the quicker you're away from the gates, the better, as those setting the pace tend to do best. This isn't just anecdotal, as expected we have the numbers from those race above to back this up...

...and here's how my shortlist have approached their last four contests...

Summary

I narrowed the field to five and decided that I wasn't too bothered about the draw. This placed more emphasis on pace and from recent efforts, it looks like Hello Me would be the pacemaker, but she can't be my winner here. She has won just 1 of 11 on turf with her best form coming on the A/W. She hasn't been seen for 16 weeks, so might need the run and hasn't won any of her last eleven races anywhere, since scoring at Newcastle in December 2021. She has only made the frame in one of those 11 defeats, so she's even vulnerable from a place perspective here.

Sarah's Verse has raced as a hold-up type of late and that's a concern, as is the fact that she's 5lbs higher than her last win here three starts ago. The hold-up tactics worked that day with the ground being soft, but as quick as it's likely to be here, she may have too much ground to make up. It should also be noted that 9 of her 11 Bath outings all came during April to September 2021 with her other two runs coming a year ago and seven weeks ago.

All of which almost brings me alphabetically to Coup de Force, Four Adaay and Granary Queen and I think they'd be my placers here today. Four Adaay won last time out, Coup de Force was a runner-up two classes higher and Granary Queen is a consistent placer (9 places from her last 11). All three have won at Class 4 and Granary Queen has won at this track before.

The manner of Coup de Force's runner-up finish LTO at Class 3 suggests that she's the one to beat and whilst it could be tight between the other two, I think I marginally prefer Granary Queen's consistency.

No odds available at 4.10pm on Thursday, so I'll need to revisit the market later, but I'd hope to see Coup de Force at around 10/3 or even 7/2. I suspect, the other pair will also be popular, rendering them too short for an E/W pick, but Sarah's Verse might be worth a small punt in case any of the trio flop.

Coup de Force opened at 10/3 with Bet365 at 4.30pm with Four Adaay the 7/2 second favourite. Granary Queen opened at 13/2.



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Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS



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