Posts

Racing Insights, 3rd May 2021

No joy for us on Saturday as the outsider of the field overturned the formbook to win, but we've dusted ourselves to go again for Monday, where we offer the PACE tab freely to all readers for all races including, of course, our free 'races of the day', which are set to be...

  • 1.00 Bath
  • 2.11 Bath
  • 2.50 Down Royal
  • 3.10 Curragh
  • 4.06 Beverley
  • 4.16 Windsor

And the second race on that list is another of those small-field competitive-looking handicaps I like to look at, so my focus here is upon the 2.11 Bath, a 6-runner, Class 4 Flat handicap for 4yo over 5f on Good To Firm ground, that might well be a little firmer in places. It's not a particularly valuable race, but £4,213 will be winging its way to the owners of one of this sextet...

The competitive nature of the race is highlighted the first four in the Geegeez ratings being separated by just two points. Four of the field have at least one win from their last three starts. Four have won here before, five have won at the trip and two have won over course and distance. We've two class droppers and one stepping up, half the field have raced in the last three weeks, whilst the other half have been off track for 5 months, 6 months and 9 months respectively. The official handicapper also sees it as a close affair with just an 8lb weight spread through the field.

Bay Watch only ran four times last season and kicked off with a hat-trick of Class 5 wins over 5f, the first two of which were here at Bath. He ended his campaign with a four length defeat at this grade off a mark of 81. He's now back from a 268 day absence off the same mark and it's the weight I'm more concerned about. He has won his seasonal reappearance in both 2019 and 2020, both here at Bath and both after 260+ layoffs, but he was beaten off today's mark last time out won't have a 7lb claim this time around either, so we're now asking for a career best at the ages of seven.

Union Rose is 4 from 9 over course and distance, but with an 8 from 67 overall record on the Flat, it's fair to say he doesn't win often enough. He ended last season with back to back wins over 5f, but has been disappointing with two unplaced finishes so far this term and was last home of five at Windsor a fortnight ago.

Newyorkstateofmind came back from a four month break to go within a length of winning a Class 3 contest at Lingfield 23 days ago and was unlucky in running getting squeezed for room as the pace picked up last time out. He's actually a pound lower and a class lower than that Lingfield runner-up finish two starts ago and a similar effort puts him right in the mix here, as he bids to win on turf for the first time.

Michaels Choice is 3 from 5 here at Bath and 4 from 5 over 5.5f, but hasn't won any of 10 efforts at today's trip. He has won one of his eight starts on good to firm, but does prefer it softer (2 from 6 on Gd to Soft/Soft). He was last of eight in his final run of 2020, beaten by the thick end of nine lengths over this trip and now steps up in class for his first run in six months. This looks a tall order here.

Second Collection has four wins to her name so far, but hasn't landed the honours in any of her last sixteen outings in a run stretching back to June 2019. She has finished 8th of 9, 5th of 6 and 6th of 9 in her last three starts and although down in class and down 2lbs in the weights, she's clearly not on her game right now, which is unfortunate, as her last win was off a mark 6lbs higher than this, so she clearly has scope.

Secretfact, however, had been bang in form prior to a five month break since early December. He made the frame in six of seven starts to end the year and he's won five times here over course and distance. He was only beaten by a head and a neck at Wolverhampton in his last race and he goes off the same mark here, which is a pound lower than his last C&D success and he won't mind the quick ground as he has 3 wins and 2 places from 8 firm ground runs.

This small field has plenty of past runs to refer back to, including several wins here at Bath also over this trip, on this going, at this class etc etc. The easiest way of comparing their past record is via Instant Expert, of course and here's how this set of runners have fared...

In such a competitive contest, it's hard not to be impressed by Bay Watch's numbers, whilst Secretfact has been pretty useful too, despite not showing any green. We shouldn't ignore the stats for Union Rose or Michaels Choice either, as they've both done fantastically well at this quirky venue, where pace and draw can often be the difference between winning and losing.

In terms of the actual draw stats , the suggestion is that in 29 previous 6-runner contests here on Good to Firm/Firm ground that a mid to high draw is better than being draw in stalls 1 or 2 from both a win and place perspective. Stalls 4 and 6 have performed best for winners, with 3 and 4 being the place to be to make the frame from. All of which is good news for C&D specialist Bay Watch who finds himself in box four here.

According to our racecourse guide for Bath...GeeGeez says: “Bath is the UK’s only racecourse that doesn’t have watering facilities and as a consequence the going is often very fast and can be too much for some horses. The track favours front-runners that can gain a prominent early position in the race. The uncompromising uphill finish can catch out many runners and riders, as can the gusty headwinds that whip around the top of Lansdown Hill"...

This is borne out by the pace stats where leaders and prominent runners are by far the most successful.

It should therefore, be of little surprise to see that the pace/draw heat map is heavily weighted to right hand half of the graphic where the front-runners reside, but as ever, it's not entirely clear cut...

...mid-drawn leaders and non-mid drawn prominent runners don't actually score too highly, whilst there's a good deal of success in highly-drawn hold up horses. This actually makes a lot of sense if you think about it. If you're drawn high and you know you've not got early pace, it would then be better to sit back and conserve energy for a charge up the hill late on whilst those who've gone off quickly start to tire.

We already know how these horses tend to run and we can overlay the last four outings (which will include at least one win for most of the field) onto that pace draw heat map above. I like to do this in draw order as opposed to card order, as it can almost give us a bird's eye view of the stalls and first furlong, as follows...

...where we think that Michaels Choice, Secretfact and Union Rose might attempt to set the pace with the first two of those three holding the best of the draw.  Well drawn Bay Watch might need to step forward a little, as might Newyorkstateofmind with only Second Collection being really disadvantaged if the above goes to plan.

Summary

At the onset, I though this would be a tricky one to call and nothing has changed my mind. You could make a case for all six to win or for any of them to be last home, so at this point, I like to read back what I've put together.

Bay Watch needs a career best here and is 7yrs old coming off a 268 day break and isn't that well off with the pace/draw combo, but goes well fresh and loves it here.
Union Rose also does well here but has run poorly recently. He isn't particularly well drawn and at 9 isn't getting any younger.
Newyorkstateofmind has been running well recently, isn't drawn badly and isn't too far on pace/draw, but hasn't won any of a dozen turf starts.
Michaels Choice has good numbers here at Bath, but all his success has been over a slightly longer trip and he'd prefer softer/slower ground. The fear is he goes off too quickly and burns out.
Second Collection is bang out of form, didn't score that well on Instant Expert and doesn't look good from a pace/draw perspective. She's the easiest to discard here.
Secretfact was in really good form prior to his break, has a good draw and pace/draw make-up and scored reasonably well on IE. Lots of boxes ticked and had a good C&D record, but has never won after a break of more than a month.

There are pros and cons to all six, but based on what I've seen, I'm going to side with Secretfact and just hope he can break that lay-off duck. Aside from not always going well frsh, he has everything else going for him and at 5/1, I think he's worth a quid or two.

As for the runner-up, I'm torn between Bay Watch and Union Rose. Newyorkstateofmind is possibly better than both, but o/12 on the Flat doesn't appeal to me, so of the two I favour more for runner-up, I think bBay Watch's absence is less of an issue to me than Union Rose's recent form, so it's Secretfact and  the 7/2 Bay Watch as my top two today.

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

4.10 Newmarket : New Mandate @ 11/4 BOG WON at 9/4 (Keen close up in rear, switched right and headway over 2f out, quickened to lead when edged left approaching final furlong, pushed out, won readily by three quarters of a length)

Monday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5½f on Good ground worth £5,208 to the winner... 

Why?...

We start with the racecard...

...which primarily tells us that we've an in-form (won his last two) former course and distance winner who likes to run here at Bath as shown in the horses for courses report.

This 8 yr old gelding had back to wins earlier in the month (11 & 14th) at Sandown and then here at Bath, both under today's jockey, 3lb claimer Joshua Bryan, who was riding him for the first time.

So, let's have a quick look at the horses for courses report, which shows 5 wins and 2 further places for this horse here at Bath and they include...

  • 5/12 (41.7%) at odds of 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/16 (25%) in handicaps
  • 4/11 (36.4%) after less than 3 weeks rest
  • 2/8 (25%) at Class 4
  • 2/5 (40%) in a visor
  • and 2/4 (50%) in September/October

As an LTO winner, it's worth noting that since the start of last year, trainer Ronald Harris is 6 from 35 (17.1% SR) for 10.95pts (+31.3% ROI) with LTO winners and these include...

  • 6/23 (26.1%) sent off at 2/1 to 9/1
  • 4/20 (20%) on the Flat
  • 2/6 (33.3%) here at Bath
  • and 2 from 3 (66.6%) in a visor...

...whilst more generally and more long-term (ie since 2016), Ronald has a successful habit of turning runners back out quickly after a good run, as his handicappers rested for a fortnight or less after a top three finish are 30 from 134 (22.4% SR) for 57.6pts (+43% ROI), including of note/relevance today...

  • 29/126 (23%) at trips of 5-7 furlongs
  • 24/99 (24.2%) from male runners
  • 19/91 (20.9%) on the Flat
  • 9/37 (24.3%) at Class 4
  • 5/28 (17.9%) and here at Bath

...with males running over 5-7f on the Flat winning 15 of 64 (23.4% SR) for 29pts (+45.3% ROI), from which they are 7/22 (31.8%) at Class 4, 5/19 (26.3%) at Bath and 3 from 6 (50%) at Class 4 here at Bath...

...pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Union Rose @ 11/2 BOG as was widely available (and bigger in places) at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

Here is today's racecard

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Stat of the Day, 13th August 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.10 Beverley : Rousayan @ 12/1 BOG 5th at 9/1 (Switched right start, held up in rear, kept on final furlong, never going pace to reach leaders) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

4.25 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG

...in an 7-runner, Class 4,  Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1, on Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

As ever, the racecard is a mine of information (ignore the odds, we don't carry enough firms' prices for that to be totally accurate)...

...and the above data is what I'm hanging today's bet on with a 4yr old gelding who won over a mile at Newbury LTO 26 days ago and whose form includes finishes of...

  • 124421 in his last 6 starts
  • 12441 in blinkers
  • 39121 in July/August
  • 1221 over a mile
  • 1242 going left handed
  • 312 in fields of 7 or fewer runners
  • 122 here at Bath
  • 122 over course and distance

The reports above are a great way into analysing the stats available to help you form a bet and they are good enough to carry your selection(s), but I'm going to try and add a little meat to the bare bones of those numbers, as follows...

Jockey Hayley Turner's 5 yr record at Bath of 6/28 is actually 6 from 26 (23.1% SR) for 25.53pts (+98.2% ROI) over the last two seasons, including...

  • 5/16 (31.25%) for 10.24pts (+64%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 5/10 (50%) for 16.24pts (+162.4%) at odds of 7/1 and shorter
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 8.74pts (+67.2%) on Firm ground
  • and 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.19pts (+206.4%) on horses trained by Marcus Tregoning...

...whilst she is 4 from 7 (57.1% SR) for 14.74pts (+210.5% ROI) at 7/1 and shorter in fields of 5-10 runners on Firm ground, including that 2 from 3 as above for Marcus Tregoning...

...who, as indicated by the 30 on the racecard and the corresponding 30-day report, is in decent form of late and it's also worth knowing (IMO) that since racing came out of enforced hibernation, his milers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 11.33pts (+13% ROI) with those sent off shorter than 4/1 winning 4 of 5.

Marcus is, as you've seen above, 12 from 42 at Bath over 5 years, indicated by the C5 and the subsequent report, but it doesn't tell you that more recently, he was 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 15pts (+88.2% ROI) at this venue last season, including 5 from 11 (45.5%) for 14.87pts (+135.2%) in fields of 5-8 runners.

And the last of the reports above is the LTO winner snippet. Closer inspection shows Marcus' LTO winners are 20 from 65 (30.8) for 57.93pts (+89.1% ROI) since the start of 2017 with those returning from a break of 11 to 45 days winning 18 of 45 (40%) for huge profits of 69.07pts (+153.5%).

The final piece of the racecard jigsaw from above is the top ranking of the Geegeez Speed Ratings (speed rating is a bit of a misnomer really, as it's more a neural rating than pure speed) and our runner's position at the head of those ratings is pretty self explanatory.

All the above suggest we should be there or thereabouts today. I had a look at the pace/draw and you want to be drawn low (we're in stall 2) and you preferably need to get on with it. Our runner seems to have two styles, held back (pace score 1) or running prominently (pace 3).

Pace score 3 is what we'd like to see today and the pace tab suggests that one horse might be a lone front runner. If that's the case, that could help us as the pace looks like it's coming from stall 1 and we could get a decent tow from the leader. Should that all pan out for us...

...we'll be well placed with... a 1pt win bet on Tell William @ 11/4 or 5/2 BOG as was available at 8.00am Thursday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 4.25 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th July 2020

Monday's pick was...

12.40 Ayr : Dodgy Bob @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 16/5 (Went right start, led, headed over 1f out, weakened towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

1.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 3yo+ over f on Good to Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

Why?...

As is generally the case, the pointers are on the racecard...

A winner last time out (pretty comfortably too, over 5f at this track 12 days ago), from a yard with a good record at this venue as denoted by C1 and C5, which is put into numbers by the Trainers Course 5 year report. The bottom line is my own saved Query Tool angle, highlighting a handful of trainers to keep an eye on here at Bath.

So, why Michael Attwater at Bath?

Well, since the start of 2017, his overall record is fairly nondescript at...

...but in handicap contests here at Bath over the same period, his runners are...

...and although it's not a huge sample size, there are too many winners/runners for it to be a coincidence when 14% of his winners are coming from 3.4% of his runners. And it's even more striking when you look closer at those 31 runners because they are...

  • 9/28 (32.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) from male runners
  • 9/28 921.1%) for 17.42pts (+62.2%) over 5/5½f
  • 9/24 (37.5%) for 21.42pts (+89.3%) aged 3-6 yrs old
  • 9/23 (39.1%) for 22.42pts (+97.5%) during June to September
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 16.77pts (+64.5%) within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/13 (61.5%) for 18.32pts (+140.9%) sent off at 6/4 to 4/1
  • and 4/5 (80%) for 8.46pts (+169.2%) from LTO winners...

...whilst 3-6 yr old males sent off at 2/1 to 4/1 over 5/5½f during June to September within 25 days of their last run are...

...with the two defeated horses finishing as runners-up and LTO winners winning 3 from 3 for 7.81pts (+260.3% ROI) profit, including Cappananty Con's win here LTO 12 days ago...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Cappananty Con @ 4/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 1.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2020

Thursday's pick was...

6.30 Chepstow : Blairlogie @ 11/4 BOG 7th at 15/8 (Towards rear, headway over 4f out, ridden over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.05 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

A pretty simplistic approach today as suggested by the racecard...

We've got a 4 yr old filly who ran really well in defeat LTO when beaten by a length at a higher grade a fortnight ago at Newmarket. Erissimus Maximus was a further length behind her that day and he has since gone on to win at this grade at Haydock a week ago, whilst Chitra, another 4 yr old filly, who was also behind her has since stepped up to Class 4 and was only beaten by half a length last night.

So, with the form of that race seeming to be working out, getting to go off the same mark dropping down in class is another positive for the selection, but let's now got back to the racecard for our supporting data.

As well as showing her form, age, class movement, days since last run and that unaltered mark (OR) of 75, we also see where I'm getting my numbers from. The C1 & C5 icons are repeated in the Trainer Stats report and my saved QT Angle says that Michael Attwater is one of my trainers to look out for here at Bath, but why?

Well, that 10 from 43 record here over the last five years is solid enough to hang a bet on, when allied to what I've already said the horse. but what interests me of Michael's 10 from 43 here  is that since the start of 2017, his handicappers sent off at odds ranging from 6/4 to 4/1 are...

all of which were over 5/5.5 furlongs and also include...

  • 4 from 6 (66.6%) for 7.73pts (+128.8%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 3 from 4 (75%) for 6.32pts (+158.1%) at Class 5
  • and 2/2 (100%) for 5.54pts (+227%) in June/July

I told you it was a simplistic approach today, but I think there's enough here...

...to support...a 1pt win bet on Pink Flamingo @ 3/1 BOG as was widely available at 8.10am Friday (although a couple of firms were at 7/2!), but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.05 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th June 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

2.40 Haydock : My Valentino @ 10/3 BOG 7th at 9/1 (Slowly away and hampered leaving stalls, held up in rear, ridden over 2f out and made no impression) The less said the better : just poor.

Thursday's pick runs in the...

7.40 Bath :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Firm ground worth £3,493 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 6 yr old mare is probably high enough in the weights right now, but that's why we're getting a decent price. Conditions look in her favour and jockey Rhiain Ingram's 5lb claim will hopefully help, as should the jockey/horse familiarity.

We're talking about a horse who has won 6 of 20 (30% SR) for 42.07pts (+210.4% ROI) profit at an A/E of 2.93 and from those twenty Flat runs, she has the following records under today's conditions...

  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 46.07pts (+287.9%) in races worth less than £3,500
  • 6/15 (40%) for 47.07pts (+313.8%) in handicaps
  • 6/15 (40%) for 47.07pts (+313.8%) in fields of 7-12 runners
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 51.07pts (+464.3%) on Good to Firm
  • 5/11 (45.5%) for 45.54pts (+414%) in a visor
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) for current trainer Paul George
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) in trips longer than 7f
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 48.54pts (+606.7%) over the last two seasons
  • 4/10 (40%) for 35.56pts (+355.6%) going left handed
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 42.84pts (+612%) under jockey Rhiain Ingram
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 29.01pts (+414.5%) here at Bath
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 11.38pts (+568.9%) over course and distance.

As all six wins came from the top four sets of data above, we can combine them to show that she is 6/9 (66.6% SR) for 53.07pts (+589.7%) on Good to Firm ground in 7-12 runner handicaps worth less than £3,500.

And of those 9 runs, she is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 50.54pts (+842.3% ROI) when wearing a visor beyond 7f for Paul George over the last two seasons, including 4/5 under today's jockey, 4/5 going left handed and 2 from 3 here at Bath (runner-up when beaten) with all 3 runs having Rhiain in the saddle.

She's also Paul George's only runner at this track today and of Paul's already decent Flat record of 16 wins from 79 (20.25% SR) for 43.33pts (+54.9% ROI) at odds of 10/1 and shorter (an angle worth noting), when he is represented by a sole handicap runner at a venue he is 7 from 19 (36.8% SR) for 43.9pts (+231% ROI) and these include of relevance/note today...

  • 7/14 (50%) for 48.9pts (+349.3%) in races worth less than £6k
  • 6/15 (40%) for 41.63pts (+277.5%) with female runners
  • 6/11 (54.6%) for 48.52pts (+441.1%) at odds of 5/1 to 10/1
  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 42.84pts (+475.9%) on Good to Firm
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 33.39pts (+556.5%) here at Bath
  • and 3/8 (37.5%) for 30.86pts (+385.8%) for jockey Rhiain Ingram

...whilst females sent off at 5/1 to 10/1 in races worth less than £6k are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 47.25pts (+787.5% ROI) and these include 4 from 5 for today's runner Princess Way, 4 from 4 on Good to Firm ground, 3 from 4 here at Bath and 3 from 4 for today's jockey...

...and when all of the above factors have aligned, Princess Way is 2 from 2 including a win over course and distance...

...leading me to...a 1pt win bet on Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG as was offered by 888Sport at 8.05am Thursday with Bet365 a full point bigger if you're able to get on, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Bath

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!