Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...
...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
- 1.30 Ascot
- 2.40 Ascot
- 3.05 Nottingham
- 3.30 Navan
- 4.15 Nottingham
- 5.55 Warwick
...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...
Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.
Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.
Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.
We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.
Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.
A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...
...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...
...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.
Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...
...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...
...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...
The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...
...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...
Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.
Summary
We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.
That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.