Tag Archive for: TJC report

Racing Insights, Saturday 28/05/22

Saturday's free Geegeez Gold feature, the Trainer Jockey Combo (TJC) stats report brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has already produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following free races of the day...

  • 1.05 Navan
  • 1.55 Punchestown
  • 2.44 Cartmel
  • 3.30 Haydock
  • 4.00 Navan
  • 4.55 Chester

And I think we'll take a look at the Group 3 John of Gaunt Stakes aka the 3.30 Haydock, an 8-runner, 4yo+ contest over a left handed 7f on good ground that is softer in places and they're watering...

Recent results for this field don't exactly scream Group 3 success, which is why a formline shouldn't be the end of your analysis. Happy Power is our only LTO winner, but Spycatcher was a runner-up earlier this month. We've two runners coming back from a break, as Kinross and Laneqash have been absent for 224 and 246 days respectively, but aside from Pogo's 63 day break, the rest of the field have raced inside the last five weeks.

Catch Twentytwo and Spycatcher are the only two yet to win at this trip, whilst Kinross is the only previous Haydock winner, having landed this very race last year and based on OR vs weight, he's technically 2lbs to 7lbs well in here.

CATCH TWENTYTWO
Was in the frame in three Gr 1 races in South Africa before coming to the UK where has raced unsuccessfully on two occasions, finishing last of seven at Gr3 and then last of four in a Listed race and is easy to overlook here.

HAPPY POWER
Has won 8 of 27 on the Flat, but his win in a 3-runner Listed event at Leicester last time out was his first after nine defeats following a hat-trick in Autumn 2020. Has looked sharper this year and seems to get on well with jockey David Probert.

KINROSS
Landed a Listed race on the A/W at Kempton before winning this race and the Gr 2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood last summer. He also ran better than 9th of 230 might suggest in his last outing when beaten by just over 4 lengths on Champions Day at Ascot. he got bumped about a lot, losing ground but still seems full of running at the finish. No doubts about his ability, but might he need a run? That said, he won this last year after 192 days off.

LANEQASH
Only six runs so far, but placed three times including a couple of Class 1's. Sole win was on debut at Class 5 and he might not quite be as good as some of the others and may need a run after a lengthy absence.

MISTY GREY
Probably better on the A/W (4/11) than the Flat (1/11) if truth be told and hasn't won on the Flat since his second career start in a Class 4 Novice race over three years ago. He was third of six beaten by five lengths over this track/trip last time out, but this race is tougher and deeper and I'm not sure he can step up.

POGO
Hasn't raced in the UK since last September, but he's not likely to be rusty having raced three times in the Middle East. Those races didn't quite go to plan and was a well beaten 15th of 16 in the Meydan Mile last time out. That said, he was only beaten by three quarters of a length in a Gr 2 on his last UK run, so might fare better 'back home'

SPYCATCHER
At 2 from 11 on the Flat and 1 from 4 on the A/W, you'd have to say he doesn't win often enough, but having made the frame in 11 of those 15 races, he's often a good place or E/W proposition and was second of nine in a Group 2 at York earlier this month despite being hampered late on, so it's not beyond possibility that he goes well here.

SUNRAY MAJOR
Started out really well, finishing 1411 in his first four outings, but they were at Class 5 (x3) and Class 3. He hasn't fared so well in three runs since at Cl2, Gr2 and Gr1 finishing 14th of 20, 5th of 5 and 6th of 9 last time out and you can't help but feel that he's just a solid Class 2/3 handicapper, but he's from a good yard and has a certain Mr Dettori on board so anything could happen here!

Instant Expert points to Kinross being the one best suited by conditions...

...but Happy Power and Sunray Major both score quite well.

Based on widened parameters to give a better sample size...

The draw would seem to favour the lower drawn runners...

and The Pace seems to suggest up front is the place to be...

...making the high drawn leader the one to be on here, a fact backed up by the Heat Map...

...and by logging how this field normally runs, we can superimpose them onto that heatmap...

Sadly we have no high-drawn leader, but it seems like Pogo & Catch Twentytwo will set the pace. This is likely to make them targets for the pack as I don't fancy either of them to hold on. Kinross raced in mid-division when winning this race last year and from stall 6, they would be excellent tactics once again. Happy Power also looks pretty well suited on the heatmap and if either of Spycatcher and/or Sunray Major were to track Kinross they'd have a chance of being involved late on from a high draw.

Summary

I've split this in half in my head and I'm not keen on Catch Twentytwo, Laneqash, Misty Grey or Pogo if truth be told and I can see last year's winner Kinross taking this again. He improved after winning this last time and this renewal doesn't look as strong as 2021, so I'm with Kinross, as no doubt many will be.

As for the places, I've three aiming for two spots and I'm not got much between Happy Power, Spycatcher & Sunray Major, but I have them in that order, although any combination of the three wouldn't surprise me.

The bookies agree about Kinross, sadly, he's the 3/1 fav right now and my three place hopefuls are 5/1, 6/1 and 7/2, so if we can keep Frankie out of the frame, the tricast/trifecta might be worth winning 😉

Racing Insights, Saturday 07/05/22

Saturady's free GOLD feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report and this has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

But wait, there's more, we also have our usual daily selection of full free racecards and they're going to be for...

  • 2.35 Cork
  • 3.05 Hexham
  • 3.15 Lingfield
  • 4.05 Ascot
  • 4.55 Cork
  • 7.20 Warwick

And I think I'll refer back to the TJC report, where my settings...

...have produced a few qualifiers on the 1-year handicap option...

...from which I'm going to focus on Clive Cox's pair of 3 yr old LTO winners set to run in back to back races at Nottingham. Both will be saddled by Liam Keniry in Class 5 handicaps on good ground on this left-handed track with Murphy's Dream running first over 1m½f followed 35 minutes later by Midnight Train tackling 1m2f.

Four from sixteen is a decent return for a trainer/jockey combination, but the fact that ten made the frame is what caught my eye. You can't win if you don't make the frame and if only 60% of your rides are in the places, then you've always the chance of winning, so let's have a quick look the Cox/Keniry runners and see if they're worth backing, starting with Murphy's Dream...

So, we have a 3yr old colt who won last time out (101 days ago) when scoring at Kempton in a Class 5, 7f maiden. All three career runs have so far been at Class 5 on the A/W and they include two previous unplaced efforts on Tapeta, over 6f at Wolverhampton and over 7f at Southwell before winning on Polytrack debut. he now races on turf for the first and had been allotted an mark of 73 for his handicap debut, whereas the runner-up from Kempton has been well beaten off marks of 64 & 66 recently, so 73 might be a reach.

The yard is in good nick, though, with half of its 20 runners over the last fortnight making the frame with 6 going on to win, whilst here at Nottingham the Cox runners are 6 from 24 (25%) since the start of last season, including four winners from nine at Class 5.

Murphy's Dream is drawn wide in 11 of 12 and raced in mid-division in his two defeats before a more prominent effort saw him break his duck at Kempton ;ast time out. In the past here, a mid-range draw has been more advantageous, but stall 11 has certainly held its own...

As for the pace in those races above, Murphy's Dream would be well advised to race prominently once more, based on these numbers...

So, his running style could be spot on, even if  the draw isn't perfect. That said he has more than a mile to undo any effects of the draw, so who knows?

*

And now to Midnight Train...

...who won on handicap debut just twelve days ago off a mark of 54 and is up 4lbs here for that win at Windsor. He's also up in class, but would naturally be expected to improve upon his last run, as that came after 151 days off the track, yet he was still finding more as the post got nearer, which bears well for a step up in trip.

Like his stablemate above, he's also drawn in the second to end box, running from stall 12 of 13 and although his pace profile is a little more muddled, he'd be expected to be in mid-division, as per his two other turf outings. I've already mentioned the form of the yard, so won't bother you with those details again.

A longer trip and a slightly bigger field puts a different perspective on the draw stats now and Midnight train's high draw looks more beneficial than that of his stablemate earlier...

...but I feel that a return to the prominent run from three starts ago would be his best tactic here, based on previous similar contests...

It's almost the opposite way around to the previous race, whereby he does have a good draw, but not quite there on pace profile, but he does have the advantage of a turf win and it's not his first handicap outing. he's entitled to improve from last time out and this might not take a lot of winning.

Summary

Had Murphy's Dream had a previous turf outing to look at or if today's race was on Polytrack, then I'd be interested in having a small wager on him at 10/1 (Bet 365) especially with a bookie paying four places, but he might need the run after 101 days, he's not had a turf run and 73 might just be a tad high for a handicap debut. Don't get me wrong, that 10/1 E/W punt might well pay off, but I've erred on the side of caution and left him alone. The 9/4 fav Aussie Banker should be winning this and at a bigger price Loquace was interesting around the 10/1 mark for an E/W pick.

I do, however, like the chances of Midnight Train, but the bookies aren't exactly being generous at 11/4 (Bet365), although I suspect that might end up being a good price, so I'm taking that whilst I can. Elsewhere, at a bigger price for an E/W interest, Young Winston might fit the bill at 18/1 if you can get 4 places.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 23/04/22

The Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report is our free feature every Saturday and it works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

As ever, we supplement the daily feature with a selection of free, fully functional racecards open to all readers and they're going to be for the following...

  • 2.15 Limerick
  • 2.45 Leicester
  • 3.32 Sandown
  • 4.30 Limerick
  • 5.30 Limerick
  • 7.35 Doncaster

My settings for the TJC report...

...are fairly exacting and don't always throw out many qualifiers, but they have highlighted two possibles for me for Saturday...

So, let's take a look at them, starting with Via Dolorosa who appears on paper to have the harder task, tackling the 3.32 Sandown (incidentally a 'free' race), which is a 15-runner, Grade 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (24 fences) over a right-handed 3m5f on good ground...

I'll lay my cards on the table here and tell you straight away that I don't fancy this horse at all. The yard/rider might well be in great form together right now, but under today's conditions, this horse looks out of his depth...

He was a reasonable enough low level chaser in France before coming over to the UK where he has raced just 8 times, making the frame just twice but he did at least win both of those. They were at Classes 3 & 4 and mirrors the 'heights' he achieved across the Channel. To add some meat to the numbers above, his form under today's conditions reads...

  • UPP beyond 3m1f
  • 4UP0 higher than Class 3
  • 4UP6P0 in fields of 9 or more runners
  • 4UPP0 at odds of 18/1 or higher (where he'll surely be)
  • 4UPP0 when rated at 130 or higher

He comes here on the back of a 71 length defeat as 17th of 29 in a similar standard race (Topham) at Aintree a fortnight ago and based on the stats above and that run LTO, there's no need for me to waste my time or yours doing a full race analysis here, I've already seen enough to tell me keep my money in my pocket with Via Doloroso.

Mille Miglia, however, should have more of a fighting chance in the 4.20 Haydock, a 10-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ Flat Handicap over a left-handed 1m2½f on good ground...

This 4 yr old filly makes a seasonal re-appearance after a break of 239 days since making all to win over 1m2f at Newmarket almost 8 months ago, closing a season where she got better with each run starting with a 5th place finish in a Novice event here at Haydock and ending the season with finishes of 321 in 1m2f handicaps.

We already know from the TJC report that the trainer & jockey have enjoyed some success over the last twelve months, but closer inspection shows the yard have a 40%+ place strike rate over the past month and that Friday's only runner was a winner. Clive Cox also has the C5 icon next to his name, denoting a good record here at Haydock, having won 16 of 70 (22.9% SR) here over the last five years.

This filly has only made six starts to date, so Instant Expert might not tell us too much that we don't already know...

...other than all five runs last season were at this grade and she's now up 4lbs for that win last August. She missed the break at Bath two starts ago, but that run aside , she does like to be up with the pace and when getting off the mark LTO, the race report said...'made all, ridden over 1f out, ran on...' and this is backed up by our pace data...

and based on past races here at Haydock, she'd be advised to adopt similar tactics if she wants to win...

...whilst her draw in stall 7 of 10 might also be a positive...

All of which seems to suggest she has a decent chance here and those pace/draw stats look like this when combined...

...giving even more confidence to those drawn high who like to get on with things.

Summary

I've been pretty clear about how much chance I give Via Dolorosa, but now (5.00pm) is the first time I've looked at the market and the fact that he's currently the 66/1 outsider of a 15-runner field speaks for itself. I'll pass on this one.

As for Mille Miglia, I think she has an excellent chance here, but might very well need the run after such a long absence. She's currently 9/2 and I expected her to be a little shorter, so I'll have a small play there from a perspective of perceived value. Wot's The Wifi Code and Carey Street have both ran well and won already this spring and should run big races here. The latter looks particularly overpriced at 13/2, I had him at 7/2 or 4/1! Time will tell, of course!

Enjoy your weekend, folks.

Racing Insights, Saturday 09/04/2022

Saturday's free feature, the Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report, brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to preferred riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies those most successful at it. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing, whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following free races to choose from...

  • 1.00 Newcastle
  • 2.05 Thirsk
  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Aintree
  • 4.52 Bangor

My own settings for the TJC...

...have only generated one runner for me to consider...

...but you can apply your own (slightly less exacting?) settings to this report to open up more options. The Armed Man hasn't raced for six months and was bang out of form last Autumn, he's up in class and runs in a competitive (for the grade) 15-runner handicap at Thirsk, so I'll swerve that race and focus instead upon the best of the 'free' races, the 3.35 Aintree, the 9-runner, Grade 1, 4yo+ Liverpool Hurdle (13 flights) over a left-handed 3m½f on Good To Soft ground and here are the contenders seeking to go home with a cool £140k...

Four of this field have come here via the Stayers' Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, filling three of the top four places...

Paisley Park has yet to re-appear and Koshari, who runs here, was seventh in that race some 3.5 lengths further behind Champ. Based on that contest 23 days ago, it's little surprise that Flooring Porter, Thyme Hill and Champ head the market, but I want to see if (a) the result/order might be different here or (b) an unfancied runner might defy the odds and gatecrash the party.

Koshari, Sire du Berlais and Thomas Darby look weakest on form, but none of these are mugs or out of their depth. All have raced in the past 24 days, bar Thomas Darby and Molly Olly's Wishes, but even they ran seven weeks ago.

Ashdale Bob and Roi Mage are the only ones without a win at a similar trip to this one, whilst Champ, Koshari and Thyme Hill have all won over course and distance in the past, with the latter winning this very race in 2021.

Flooring Porter (rated 164), Champ (162) and Thyme Hill (161) are best off at the weights, further backing up the suggestion that it's a three-horse race. The last 17 renewals of this race have gone to horses aged 9 or younger, which isn't good news for Champ from that trio, nor is it good for Koshari, Roi Mage or Sire du Berlais.

ASHDALE BOB
Has finished 1132 in four Grade 2 contests so far and was a decent third on the Gr 3 Coral Cup at Cheltenham 24 days ago, but has yet to make the frame at Grade 1 and I doubt that'll change here.

CHAMP
A 4-time (from 7) winner at this level including the RSA Chase at Cheltenham in 2020 and more recently the Long Walk Hurdle (where Thyme Hill was the runner-up by 1.75L) on return. A decent third to Flooring Porter last time out and the extra yardage/better ground should help here.

FLOORING PORTER
Was allowed a soft/easy lead in that Cheltenham race last time out, putting both Thyme Hill & Champ to the sword as he retained the Stayers' Hurdle, gaining revenge over Klassical Dream who had beaten him by two lengths in Leopardstown's Christmas Hurdle. He'd probably prefer it a bit softer here, but the trip is no issue and if allowed to dominate again, would be the one to beat.

KOSHARI
Was a surprise (80/1!) winner of a Class 2 handicap here over course and distance two starts ago back in November, but this is probably too much for him to handle. He was well beaten in that Stayers' Hurdle and although he did land a Grade 2 at Punchestown as recently as last May, he's not really a Class 1 runner in my eyes and he'd do better over a shorter trip going right handed.

ROI MAGE
Won 7 of 33 over fences in France, but his career hurdling record stands at just one win from twelve and could only manage to finish 5th of 7, beaten by 27 lengths at Grade 3 in his last effort over hurdles. Probably better off in stayers' chases.

SIRE DU BERLAIS
Was a 3.5 length runner-up behind Flooring Porter in last year's Stayers' hurdle but bypassed the race this year for a crack at the Pertemps, but never really recovered from being badly hampered early on and ended up just 11th of 22, some 11 lengths behind the winner. He's better than that, even if recent results say other wise and I can see him running a big race here, but it'd have to be his best for some time to get close.

THOMAS DARBY
Won the three-mile Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury 3 starts ago, back in November but could only manage 4th of 8 in the Long Walk at Ascot 22 days later, as Chap beat Thyme Hill in the 1-2. He didn't enjoy Haydock's traditional heavy ground when pulled up in February and looks up against it here. He's a decent sort, a solid Grade 2/3 runner, but I don't fancy his chances today

THYME HILL
Has finished 2122 in four Grade 1 starts since winning the Grade 2 Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury in 2020, including landing this race last year. Trip and ground conditions are ideal for him, but if he wants to reverse the placings from LTO, he can't let Flooring Porter have it all his own way.

MOLLY OLLYS WISHES
This 8 yr old mare has progressed really nicely over last 18 months, winning at Class 3, Class 2, 2 x Listed and then a grade 2 at Ascot in January. last seen seven weeks ago at Haydock in the same race as Thomas Darby, she suffered the same fate as her rival and struggled with the heavy ground late on, having ran pretty well for much of the race. An unlikely winner here, but a 7lbs allowance and further progression could see her feature closer to the front than the back.

These are good horses and I expect to see plenty of green on Instant Expert...

The likes of Ashdale Bob (Class), Roi Mage (experience), Sire du Berlais (Class/Distance) and Thomas Darby (generally) look the weakest when we consider overall career stats, but so that we're not leaning/relying on old data, let's look at how they've performed more recently...

...and that has merely reinforced my view that I want to be focusing on the the Stayers' Hurdle runners plus bottom weight Molly Olly's Wishes, but the more I look at it, the more it's the three-horse race we thought it might be.

We know that Flooring Porter was afforded a soft/easy lead at Cheltenham, but that's the way he likes to run his races, whilst both Champ and Thyme Hill prefer to sit much further back...

Molly Olly's Wishes, however, also likes to get on with things and she might cause the likely fav some discomfort if she decides to press him early. If FP responds by setting a stronger gallop, this could well play into the hands of his rivals, based on past 3m hurdles contests here on good to soft ground...

So, essentially, Molly's best chances of making the frame are to put some distance between here and the others making herself hard to catch, but Flooring Porter might ruin his own chances by going with her.

Summary

The 1-2-4 from the Stayers' Hurdle should be the 1-2-3 here and whilst there's very little between Thyme Hill and Champ, I expect the former to just about retain his hold over the latter. Much will depend on how hard Flooring Porter has to work to assert himself at the head of affairs and if Molly Olly's Wishes takes him on, it could well cost him the race.

So, with the above in mind and my feeling that he'd prefer softer ground, I can't back him at 15/8 or shorter, even if I do think he's the most likely winner. Neither Thyme Hill (3/1) nor Champ (4/1) are long enough to back E/W, so I'll do some reverse forecast/tricasts etc and also back Molly Olly's Wishes at 22/2 E/W with Sporting Index, who are paying 5 places. (Sky are paying 4 at 20/1 too)

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 02/04/22

Saturday's free feature is the excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo stats (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations and clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. Clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

We also have a selection of full free racecards on offer, too and Saturday's free list includes...

  • 1.08 Chepstow
  • 2.25 Ayr
  • 2.45 Newbury
  • 4.20 Leopardstown
  • 5.50 Lingfield
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...and that list contains a couple of Grade 2 contests, so it'd be almost rude not to look at one of them. Now, 16 are set to run at Newbury, which is beyond my usual comfort zone, so I'm going to tackle the 2.25 Ayr, the Grade 2 Scottish Champion Hurdle, which is a Grade 2 Limited Handicap for horses aged 4 and over. They'll tackle nine hurdles over a left-handed two miles on good to soft ground and one of these is going to "earn" £34,170 for their connections...

As you'd expect for a race at this level, plenty of past recent wins for our runners with only the solitary mare, Anna Bunina, winless in the last six outings. Socialist Agenda and Barrichello both won last time out and the latter, along with Alqamar, has won four of his last five.

Only West Cork, Onemorefortheroad and bottom weight Kihavah raced in Class 1 (all at Gr 3) action last time out, as both Anna Bunina and Socialist Agenda ran at Class 3, whilst last year's winner Milkwood, Voix du Reve, Barrichello and Alqamar are all stepping up from Class 3.

The latter at 171 days and Milkwood at 181 days have been off the track the longest, whilst Anna Bunina and Socialist Agenda ran eight weeks ago and the other five have all been out in the last two to five weeks.

All nine have at a similar if not identical trip to this one and by virtue of winning this race last year, top weight Milkwood is one of just two (Alqamar) former course and distance winners. As well as stepping up in class, this is only a second crack at handicaps for Barrichello and Socialist Agenda.

Voix du Reve, at 10, is at least 2yrs old than the pack an bottom weight Kihavah is 'the baby'. As for the form of the yards and riders, West Cork (Skelton) and Barrichello (McCain) look like the ones to watch.

That's an overview of the racecard info you see in front of you, let's now take a quick look at the runners...

MILKWOOD
Was third in a Grade 3 at last year's Cheltenham Festival, before winning this race a month later. He then took 15 weeks off before an excellent runner-up finish in a Galway Grade 1 before calling it quits for the season. Had a pipe-opener over fences at Uttoxeter in October, but having bypassed Cheltenham this year, you'd be excused for assuming this is his target race.

WEST CORK
Finished 22112 over hurdles in the 19/20 winter season before defying a 90-week absence to land the Grade 3 Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham back in November. Didn't fare too well at Ascot a month later, but had a great run in this year's County Hurdle at Cheltenham a fortnight ago, finishing fourth and now raised just 1lb, has to be a contender here.

ONEMOREFORTHEROAD
Won five of six between last March and November, culminating in a career best effort to win a Listed race at Newbury from the front. He backed that run up three weeks later when a Grade 3 runner-up at Ascot and was a respectable 4th of 22 in the Imperial Cup at Sandown three weeks ago. Has to be respected.

VOIX DU REVE
Hardly prolific and although he won last time out, that came after a run of 18 defeats over almost three years, taking his mark from 156 all the way down to 132. Truth is that he won a poor, 4-runner, Class 3 contest by three lengths LTO and now up 3lbs and two classes, this is probably beyond him.

BARRICHELLO
Finished fourth of seven at Bangor three starts ago on the only occasion in ten starts over hurdles that he hasn't been to the first pair home. That rare failure came 20 days after he's won a Listed race at Haydock and his two runs since Bangor have seen him win a pair of Class 3 contests by fairly small margins. 7lbs worse off and up from Class 3, this is probably too much for him, as on his day, he's a solid Class 3 handicapper. I'll wait to see him run at that level again before backing him.

ALQAMAR
Only made his hurdles debut in February 2021 when a runner-up (beaten by 18L) of 12 at Carlisle despite having been off track for 27 months. He then rattled off four wins on the bounce in less than four months, but made a mistake and unseated his rider at Wetherby in October and hasn't been seen since. He might need the run, something might not be right with him and all his form is at Classes 3 & 4. Too many what-ifs for my liking.

ANNA BUNINA
Won back to back hurdle races in Ireland in the summer of 2020 and was then a good second of 16 in a grade 2 event at Listowel in the September. Since then, however, she has made the frame in just one of ten starts and was beaten by 20L and 24L in two January runs his year before getting closer at Musselburgh (3rd of 7, 6L) last time out. This is much tougher, though, even if she is down another 3lbs.

SOCIALIST AGENDA
Caught the eye when landing a heat-trick of bumpers in his first three outings and has since finished 2411 over hurdles. He stayed on well to win readily by more than 4 lengths in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh in early February off a mark of 118 and although officially up 6lbs to 124 (which would have tested him), he has to run off 130 here and I'm not sure he's got 12lbs more in him, even if he is in good form.

KIHAVAH
Actually ran here at Ayr in the 2.55 race on Friday, so probably won't run in this one. He would also have been 6lbs out of the handicap and I'd say he would have struggled and the fact that he was only 5th of 7 off his proper mark on Friday, beaten by 13 lengths at Class 3 does back up my theory somewhat.

So, from the nine originally declared, Kihavah doesn't run and I'm most keen on the first three or four on the card, but past relevant form documented by Instant Expert might change my mind...

Here, Voix du Reve's 0/10 at class 1 is a standout for the wrong reasons, as is his 1 from 13 at the trip and having not made the frame in many of those either, he's not going to be for me. Anna Bunina is another worry at the grade/distance at at 0 from 9 and 1 from 9 respectively with out troubling the places much either. Barrichello is 1 from 1 at Class 1 in fairness, but he's really just a solid Class 3 'capper and I'm not that keen on his chances here.

The beauty of the racecards tools is that you can clock the little X to the left of the runner to quickly remove those you don't fancy, so my Instant Expert now looks like this...

...and when you focus on handicap hurdle races, you see that they almost pick themselves. Alqamar and Socialist Agenda lack relevant past experience and are probably the weaker pair of my five, especially the latter at 6lbs higher than his last win, but let's see if he might be suited by how the race is likely to be run.

This is how the entire field have approached their last four outings...

...and I expect Alqamar to set the fractions here, whilst West Cork looks like being held-up for a run, so my final five are spread through the field, but who will be best suited? Well, in past similar contests...

It has paid to sit just off the pace or to be held up for a run and this seems to re-affirm my thoughts that the top three on the card are the ones to be with here.

Summary

I think our winner (if not our first three home) sits in the top third of the card ie last year's winner Milkwood, West Cork and Onefortheroad. I think the latter is the least likely of the three to win here based on everything above and the other two have achieved more to date. He's currently (5.30pm) 4/1, so no E/W play here, I'm afraid.

I don't have much between Milkwood and West Cork if truth be told, but again the latter has achieved more and has run well very recently, so for me (and the bookies, sadly), I'll say the 3/1 West Cork beats the 5/1 Milkwood here.

Racing Insights, Saturday 26/03/22

Saturday's free GOLD feature is the very popular Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Basically, many trainers turn to preferred riders when they have one ‘ready to win and this report quickly identifies those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

These are the settings that I apply for my TJC report searches...

...as I'm far more interested in quality over quantity, but sadly I have neither today because I've no qualifiers at all! Now, if I wasn't a Gold subscriber, it might seem as I've been stymied, but fear not! There's always the daily free races to tilt at and they are...

  • 1.25 Curragh
  • 3.20 Kempton
  • 3.28 Stratford
  • 3.46 Kelso
  • 4.16 Curragh
  • 4.55 Wolverhampton

And of those, I'm going to tackle the one from the Scottish Borders. It might only have a handful of runners, but it's a competitive-looking stayers handicap, but the best (on paper) of our free races is the 3.46 Kelso, a 5-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle (13 flights) over a left-handed 3m2f on good ground. It's worth a cool £18k to one of these...

All five have displayed some type of decent form in their latest races, all have won at least once in their last six outings with the top two on the card (Sultan's Pride & Wakool) looking the best with four wins from six with the former winning seven of his last ten!

Sultan's Pride is one of two (Kaizer) former course and distance winners, but only Wakool is without a win at a similar trip as Teescomponents Lad and Small Present have both won over 3m1½f at Catterick.

We should have no rustiness here with all five having raced in the last three to seven weeks, but none are turned out very quickly. Sultan's Pride is out only LTO winner, having beaten Teescomponents Lad by 2.5 lengths.

SULTAN'S PRIDE
Has shown almost continuous improvement since returning to action in October 2020 after a 7.5 month break, winning by 20 lengths at Hexham on that comeback run. He's 6 from 9 since then and 3 from 3 since Christmas, all at Doncaster. He's up 5lbs for his latest win taking his mark to some 39lbs higher than his October 2020 comeback run, but still looks the one to beat under an in-form jockey, Theo Gillard...

WAKOOL
Another progressive type who has made the first three home in each of ten starts over the last seventeen months, winning four times and has scored at classes 4, then 3, then 2 so far this season. Had to settle for second LTO denying him a four-timer as he was unlucky to run into The Big Galloper at Musselburgh. He's bang in form, as are both yard and rider together and individually and as a 'son' of Motivator is expected to be a decent hurdler (his 3-6 yr old hurdlers are 21 from 105 since 2018)...

TEESCOMPONENTS LAD
Ran consistently well during the last third of 2021, finishing as runner-up three times before winning over 3m at Market Rasen in November before a third of ten at Carlisle in December, despite a 6lb rise. Not the same in his first two runs this year as 6th of 8 (17L) and 3rd of 5 (13L), but did show signs of recovery back down in weight when a 2.5 length runner-up to Sultan's Pride LTO.

SMALL PRESENT
Came alive around this time last year, winning at Catterick, Doncaster and Haydock at four-week intervals before a seven month and an ill-fated (10th of 11, 61L) solitary attempt over fences. Won over hurdles on his return to Haydock two months ago, but will ned a bounce back here after a poor run there a month ago, when 6th of 9, beaten by 16 lengths.

KAIZER
The first three months of 2022 have been the best spell of form for this 7yr old since back to back wins inside a week in Sept/Oct 2019! Only beaten by a length and a quarter at Class 4 over 3m½f at Newcastle in mid-January, he hen stepped up in class/trip/weight to win a Class 3 here over course and distance by a comfortable 15 lengths that really could have been any margin. That didn't fool the assessor and he was raised 9lbs for the win for next/last run, which saw him finish second of ten also here at Kelso three weeks ago, where it was the sharpness of a 2m5f trip that was more to blame than his mark of 115. Now back up in trip.

At this point, I'd have to say that likely favourite Sultan's Pride is the one to beat, but if you're undecided or disagree, then Instant Expert might sway you...

Yes, he's another 5lbs higher than his latest win, but that isn't much more than the rises for Small Present, who was poor LTO and Teescomponents Lad, who he beat LTO. Kaizer & Wakool, on the other hand are much higher than they've previously won at. Elsewhere, not too much red around, thankfully, but Kaizer's 0/8 at Class 2, 1/7 at Kelso and his 1/13 in smaller fields makes him the worst on that graphic. Wakool is 0/3 on good ground, but that doesn't tell you that he made the frame in all three.

It might well be that tactics decide this competitive event and based on their most recent efforts, I'd expect the likes of Kaizer and Teescomponents Lad to set the tempo, whilst the two form horses, Sultan's Pride & Wakool are the ones who'll be waited with...

Sadly, we don't have enough data about the pace in small field stayers hurdles at Kelso, but I do know from my own visits that those trying to win the race from the front have often failed, but you'll have to trust me on that one 😉 If my memory serves me correctly, then that's a further blow to the chances of Kaizer and Teescomponents Lad.

Summary

From the start Sultan's Pride and Wakool were the two that stood out. I have them in that order on form, overall record and Instant Expert. They're closely matched on pace and I expect/hope they'll be the first two home with Sultan's Pride leading the way.

So, they're my 1-2 and I've got them at 2/1 and 3/1 respectively, so I'm pleasantly surprised to see Bet365 offering 5/2 about the fav, so that's where my money is going (plus the reverse forecast, of course!) today. Wakool is a solid 3's in most places.

 

 

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 19/03/22

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, whilst the day's free races are...

  • 3.15 Kempton
  • 4.10 Uttoxeter
  • 4.50 Newcastle
  • 5.18 Uttoxeter
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

My fairly stringent TJC Report settings...

...have yielded no qualifiers for Saturday, so I'm going to take a look at the first of the free list, the 3.15 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 2, 5yo+ Handicap Chase, taking in 16 fences over a right handed 2m4½f on Good ground. it's definitely worth winning at £31,218 and here are the contenders...

Espoir de Guye and Native Robin are our two LTO winners with the latter seeking a fourth success on the bounce and his fifth in six starts, making himn the obvious form horse. Elsewhere Debece is the only one winless in six, having been ulled up in three of them.

Only four of the field ran at Class 2 last time out. Three (Pistol Whipped, Manofthemountain & Kalooki) drop down from Class 1 action, having raced at Grade 2, grade 3 and grade 3 respectively, whilst three others (Native Robin, Debece and Paddy's Poem) all step up from making the frame at Class 3.

Diego du Charmil is the only one yet to win at a similar trip to today, having only gone beyond 2m1f on one previous occasion, whilst both Debece (2m hrds) and Up the Straight (2m5f hrds) are former course winners with Killer Clown the only one to have won here over fences at this trip.

Pistol Whipped and Manofthemountain might need the run after breaks of 119 & 126 days respectively, but half of the field (Espoir de Guye, Kalooki, Native Robin, Debece & Paddy's Poem) have been out on the last four weeks, so should be ready.

PISTOL WHIPPED
Won back to back Class 2 2m4f chases last April and was unlucky when headed in the final strides over today's trip at Uttoxeter at the end of May. He wasn't seen again for almost six months when pulled up quite early in Ascot's Grade 2 1965 chase and has been off the track since. On the basis of that run, he's a no, but on last spring's form, definitely. Just a case of which horse turns up. Trainer and jockey are in decent nick...

ESPOIR DE GUYE
Returned from virtually a year off the track after being the runner-up in 2021's Budbrooke Handicap at Warwick to go back and win it this year, helped by a 2lb drop in weight and a wind op no doubt. Only three ran, mind you and his jumping wasn't the best, but he should come on for the run and is only up 4lbs.

DIEGO DU CHARMIL
Won over hurdles at Plumpton last April and that was followed by two lacklustre efforts either side of a 6-month summer break. Switched back to fences at Ascot in November and was only 5th of 7 over 2m1f, but did manage to be runner-up next/last time out over 2m3f at the same venue. That said, he was beaten by the thick end of ten lengths after fading. Up in trip after three months off isn't a positive for me.

MANOFTHEMOUNTAIN
Only 6lbs higher than when landing a Grade 2 handicap over this trip at Cheltenham last April and ran better than 8th of 19 might suggest at the same venue for the Grade 3 Paddy Power Gold Cup over this trip in November, as he was beaten by less than six lengths off a mark a pound higher than today. Hasn't raced for four months but has previously won after breaks of 218 and 274 days.

KALOOKI
All his form has come over further than this and his last win, just after Christmas was over 3m on soft ground, suggesting this might be too quick/short for him. His form hasn't been great since, either, being pulled up at Haydock last month sandwiched by defeats of 24 and 27 lengths.

KILLER CLOWN
Won over course and distance on Boxing Day 2020 and has only raced six times since, finishing second then third off increasing marks to end the 20/21 season. He looked like coming back to his best when winning by almost 10 lengths at Wincanton in January, but was tailed off/pulled up at Ascot next/last time out. He's had eight weeks to pull it round and could well be involved.

NATIVE ROBIN
Making surprising progress at the age of 12, a winner six times in eleven races over the last two years, landing four of five this season and each of his last three. That's the good news, the bad is that all this form has been at Class 3 & 4 and he's up in grade here as well as another 7lb rise. He now runs off 132, some 19lbs higher than his season opener, but you can't deny the mood/form he's in.

DEBECE
Won back to back Class 4 chases around the 3m distance in early, but didn't run at all from April of that year until November 2020 and has failed to complete three of his runs since that long absence. He has however, made the frame in the two completions, albeit at Class 3 and whilst he's probably good enough to get involved here, he's not one I'd trust.

PADDY'S POEM
Made the frame in eleven consecutive starts from May 2018 to march of last year, winning four times, but was only 17th of 21, beaten by 34 lengths in the Grade 3 Paddy Power plate at lats year's Cheltenham Festival. he then took ten months off and was pulled up after several poor jumps at Sandown upon his return in January and although the formline says he was third LTO, only six ran and he was almost 20 lengths behind the winner in a Class 3 handicap.

UP THE STRAIGHT
One win in a Novice event from ten efforts over fences isn't good enough for this level and in his three outings since that win at Plumpton (Class 3, 2m4f, 3 ran), he was 14th of 19 (20L) at Cheltenham in November, third of five (27L) at Ascot and was pulled up LTO at Ascot in the race Paddy's Poem finished third above.

At this point, I think I want to be with one (or more, depending on odds) of Espoir de Guye, Native Robin, Pistol Whipped and Manofthemountain in alphabetical order, so let's see how the past form in similar contests stacks up, courtesy of Instant Expert...

...where Pistol Whipped is 0/3 here, but has good numbers otherwise and Espoir is proven at class/trip, Manofthemountain will like the going, but hasn't really raced much at class/track/trip but Native Robin just loves the trip with 9 wins and 6 further places from 26 efforts. Elsewhere, Paddy's Poem will like the ground and the bottom three on the card are carrying considerably less weight than their last win, but that's probably due to a run of poor form!

Pace could very well be the deciding factor here, because I've got in my head that controlling the race from upfront is the way forward, but let's check the stats, shall we?

Ah, yes, good to see I remembered something this week! Mid-division runners do better than average, but upfront is where you want to be for winners and based on this field's last four outings...

...my preferred quartet look very well positioned.

Summary

From quite early on, I liked Espoir de Guye, Native Robin, Pistol Whipped and Manofthemountain in alphabetical order and nothing has put me off. Sentiment wants the 12 yr old Native Robin to carry on winning, but up in class and weight again, I think the run stops here, but at a solid 8/1 (even with those paying 4 places), he owes me nothing and a small E/W bet is due. I'm also having an equally sized E/W punt on Manofthemountain who is as big as 10/1 in places.

This of course leaves Espoir de Guye at 4/1 (Bet365 & Hills) and Pistol Whipped (13/2 Hills) and as much as I'd love Pistol to hold on and win this, Espoir might just "do" him.

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/03/22

Our final free offering of the week is the Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, which  brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also have the following free races of the day...

  • 1.40 Navan
  • 1.50 Sandown
  • 2.21 Lingfield
  • 3.00 Sandown
  • 4.16 Hereford
  • 5.25 Gowran Park

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy profiling any of the six free races for different reasons (quality/field size mainly), but thankfully my settings for the TJC Report...

...have yielded me two horses to consider :  one from course one-year form...

...and one from the course five year stats...

So, let's start at the 1.46 Lingfield, a 12-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left handed mile and a half on standard polytrack, where top weight He's A Latchico looks like this on the card...

As you can see, he comes here on a hat-trick having raced and won ten days ago. He's a winner at 1m4f and has also scored here at Lingfield, but steps up in class today. The stats below his entry are self explanatory and are very encouraging and his geegeez SR figure of 83 is the best in the race.

He won a Class 6, 1m2f handicap here two starts/five weeks ago, running on well late on from a prominent position to win by a length and three quarters off a mark of 61, a figure raised 5lbs to 66 for his next/last run, another Class 6 A/W handicap, but this time at Kempton over today's 1m4f trip. Another prominent run saw him take the lead inside the final 2f and he ran on well again to score by 2.5 lengths and the manner of those two wins suggests that another 7lb rise still might not anchor him.

He was well down the field (10th of 12, 4.75 lengths) on his only previous crack at Class 5 racing, but that was here on the 3rd Jan over an inadequately short mile and coming off the back of a 14-month absence, so he probably needed the run, as shown by his figures of 411 since. That Class 5 race is the only blemish on a decent showing on Instant Expert...

As you can see, he's been drawn in stall 1, but without disputing the importance of the draw in A/W or Flat racing, I do believe it has less of an influence over longer trips, when horses have plenty of time to undo the draw. I'm ore concerned about them missing the break from whichever stall they're in. However, for full disclosure/clarity, here's how the draw stats look...

...and a low draw isn't a bad place to be, but it's a race that will surely lend itself more to quality/race tactics! We know that He's A Latchico has raced prominently in his two recent runs/wins, but according to the pace stats, that's not always the best approach...

Mind you, with an IV of only just shy of 1.00 (at 0.94), it's hardly disastrous. What it does tell us is that it's difficult to win here from off the pace and our pace/draw heatmap says this horse could have had a worse combination and based on the "green is good" mantra, he's not too badly off here...

*

Our second race takes place around 25 miles North West of Lingfield, where King's Knight will tackle the 7.00 Kempton, an 8 runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 7f on Standard To Slow polytrack...

Charles Hills' 5yr old entire was last seen competing in a £30,000 contest at Sakhir, Bahrain a little over three weeks ago when he finished third of sixteen runners, touched off by just a head and a neck behind Godolphin's 99-rated Silent Film who was completing a hat-trick that had started in a Class 3 handicap at Sandown last June, from which the runner-up has also won twice, both at Class 3.

King's Knight runs off just 86 here, so to get that close to a 99-rated was a great effort and when you consider that his best UK run was a runner-up finish beaten by a neck at Chelmsford off 87 in a Class 2, 7f handicap last August, you'd have to say that this was within him. That was only his second effort on the A/W, having previously won over 7f at Lingfield in a Class 4 contest, so we're not going to get too much info from Instant Expert...

...so although there's not much data to work with, we know that he can win at this grade/trip and if going to win, he's going to have to do it from stall 8 of 8, which isn't actually too bad a place to start from...

And from what I gather, whilst he's been over in Bahrain, he has tended to be waited with in mid-division for a run and that's how his second to last UK contest went too when narrowly beaten at Chelmsford, so in terms of pace score, I'd probably/tentatively say he was a "2", which could actually work out very well for him based on...

and

which suggests his pace/draw balance is as good as he's going to get here.

Summary

Two potential selections and I like them both. He's A Latchico seems to have everything going for him, ticks all the boxes and I've got him as clear best in race. Sadly, so do the bookies, but it didn't take a massive leap to get to that point.

I suppose the question here is whether you're comfortable at backing a horse whose best price at 4.15pm was 5/4. He's too short for me to want to get heavily invested, I was rather hoping for 2/1 or thereabouts, so I'll not back him even though I expect him to win. Others of interest here from an E/W perspective are Sea of charm at around 10/1 and Danni California at 12's, especially if your bookie pays four places, although Helian might be the biggest danger to the fav.

Not so clear cut at Kempton later, but I do still have King's Knight as my pick here, narrowly ahead of the likes of Gobi Sunset and Dashing Dick and a price of 4/1 is probably about right, so I'll have a small piece of that.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 05/02/22

Saturday's free GOLD feature is the rather excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report and it works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

But that's all the free stuff for Saturday, oh no! We also have the following full interactive racecards...

  • 1.05 Leopardstown
  • 2.20 Sandown
  • 2.40 Musselburgh
  • 3.00 Wetherby
  • 5.25 Kempton

My settings for the TJC report are as follows...

...pretty restrictive/almost prohibitive, as I'm interested in quality over quantity, but it does mean that sometimes (like Saturday), I have no runners to look at. But not to worry, we've still got our five free races!

Whilst the races at both Leopardstown & Sandown are at a higher class, the race at Musselburgh should give us more to aim at. The 2.40 Musselburgh is a competitive-looking, 8-runner (good for E/W punters), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle on Good (softer in places) ground. The trip is a right-handed 1m7½f over nine flights and here's your card...

Highly Prized hasn't been seen for over nine months, since finishing as a runner-up on his chase debut in a Class 4 beginners contest (only 3 ran) and it's almost 16 months since he last raced over hurdles. I'd probably want him to have a run under his belt to see if he's anything like the horse from 2020 that won 4 races from 7 when on top form. The market might be a better indicator of his chances, but the Trainer/Jockey combo is decent...

Wild Max commands respect because he's a Paul Nicholls horse, but that probably means he goes off shorter than he should, especially for a horse that has failed to complete three of his last four and was 10th of 14, beaten by 45 lengths in the other, admittedly at Listed class. All of which is a shame for a horse who won back to back handicaps immediately before loss of form/ability to jump. He'll have been prepped well and his yard do well here, but I have reservations at this point and stepping up in class won't help...

Anna Bunina is one of three mares (two Irish) in the race and she drops down in class after being well beaten (24 lengths, 4th of 5) in a Grade 2 mares event last Saturday. Prior to that she had been beaten by twenty lengths here over the same class/course/distance as today and I think she'll probably need to be a bit lower in the weights to make her presence felt here, as she's still 10lbs higher than her last win ten races and eighteen months ago.

Pearl Of The West is Anna's stablemate as the other Irish mare in the contest and she's in similar, if not worse, form than Anna above. No win in nine races over 33 months and defeats of 26, 15 , 19 and 33 lengths in her last four runs suggests she's not suddenly winning on her first race in the UK for almost three years. Eighth is her highest finishing position in her last six outings, she might well match that here and only eight run!

Diocletian is relatively unexposed after just four efforts over hurdles, winning once and has made just one handicap run when 6th of 10 (17 lengths) at Kempton almost a year ago. He hasn't raced for ten months since racing over 1m6f on the Flat here last April, but has had a wind op and moved yards during his downtime. I'm thinking he'll need the run, even if he should be better than a 124 rating and he does have the benefit of some helpful stats behind him...

Fiveandtwenty is the last and probably the best of the three mares and she set off like a house on fire when launching her hurdling career in December 2020, winning each of her first three starts in a nine-week period, all here over course and distance. Wins at Class 2, Class 4 and Listed company saddled her with a mark of 132 which became a struggle and she's finished 3774 since, but she's down another 4lbs here to 4lbs lower than her last winning mark and on familiar territory could well be involved again, especially based on the following..

Glory And Honour is better than his season's 02F5 results might suggest. He was 10th in a big-field Grade 3 over 2m4f at Chepstow in October after six months off, only weakening from 2 out and was then a good second down in class/trip at Taunton. He was going well before falling at Ffos Las and gave a good account of himself in a really competitive Class 2 at Cheltenham last Saturday despite a 10-week absence. Should strip fitter here and this doesn't look quite as tough and yard/rider are going well...

Socialist Agenda is the only LTO winner in the pack and has won four of six so far, after going 3 from 3 in bumpers. He was a length and a quarter off the winner as runner-up on his hurdling debut back in November and went down by less than four lengths at Cheltenham three weeks later prior to a first hurdles win on New Year's Day. Still very unexposed and an opening handicap mark of 118 looks pretty lenient to me, especially for runner from a yard with a good record with LTO winners...

Instant Expert gives us an overview of how the field have performed in similar contests over the last couple of years...

...and you can see that bottom weight Socialist Agenda will like the ground and runs off 2lbs lower than he was rated when winning last time out. Fiveandtwenty has little experience of good ground, but ticks all the other boxes and is 4lbs lower than her last win, too. Anna Bunina looks very vulnerable here and could challenge stablemate Pearl of the West for the wooden spoon.

The afore-mentioned Fiveandtwenty is the one I'd expect to lead them out here, as she's a confirmed front-runner as shown here...

...whilst it looks like there could be three or four others wanting to get on with it. And getting on with it looks the best tactic, based on historical pace stats for similar races...

...all of which means I'm now only really interested in the first five on the pace charts.

Summary

Of the five at the head of the pace charts, I'm not wildly keen on the two top weights, Highly Prized and Wild Max. The former is up in class and will probably need the run, whilst the latter is bang out of form and has adopted a habit of not finishing races, so I'm not having either of those.

That, by process of elimination, leaves me with (alphabetically)...

  • Fiveandtwenty, proven at class, course and distance and ow dangerous off a mark of 124, having won a Listed race here off 128.
  • Glory And Honour, who's probably the weakest of the three, but is game/gutsy and that might well be needed here and went well last time out.
  • Socialist Agenda, the form horse and carrying no weight who'll love the going.

Glory And Honour isn't up to the standard of the other two, so he's my third choice, so to speak, but 6/1 isn't long enough (for me, anyway : it's your call) for an E/W bet. As for the winner, there's arguably little between the two remaining. Fiveandtwenty is proven and has won a Listed race, Socialist Agenda is on the up and looks very well treated off 118. The market has them best priced at 15/4 and 7/1 respectively, so I've a marginal preference for Socialist Agenda at 7's for some value. If he drifts any, he could be a cracking E/W punt.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 15/01/22

We unlock a different Geegeez GOLD feature for all readers every day and for Saturdays, it's the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which is pretty self explanatory and brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

As well as a free daily feature, we also give FREE access to a selection of races each day where all GOLD functionality has been unlocked. That means you'll be able to use the Full Form Filters, Instant Expert, Pace and, for flat races, Draw features for the following...

  • 12.27 Wetherby
  • 1.32 Kempton
  • 3.00 Warwick
  • 5.15 Chelmsford
  • 6.15 Chelmsford

My settings for the TJC report...

...haven't generated many possible bets, so I'm going back to the free races, of which the middle one is the highest rated. There are fifteen scheduled to run in the 3.00 Warwick, which is a few too many for my comfort zone, but we should stretch ourselves occasionally, plus we might find a nicely-priced E/W prospect. It's a Grade 3, 5yo+ handicap chase worth a decent £56,950 and to win, they'll need to tackle 22 fences over a testing left-handed 3m5f on soft ground, which might not suit many!

What I want to do here is quickly eliminate a good chunk of the field, hopefully leaving me with an E/W bet (or two) with most firms paying five places and the first one I'm discarding is Grace a Vous Enki. His form since coming over to the UK hasn't been good, he's up from Class 4 and a Grade 3 isn't the place for a handicap debutant, as far as I'm concerned. Captain Tommy, No Rematch and The Hollow Ginge look the weakest from a recent form perspective, so I'm discounting them too, as I head straight to Instant Expert...

...where Head To The Stars and Eclair Surf both look like they'll struggle on soft ground, Padleyourowncanoe has a poor record at Class 1, but most of those to have tried track or trip seem to have handed them well enough. But I have trying to show you that you can get through a big field quickly, so the three I've just mentioned are gone, as we consider the pace aspect of the race. Our pace analyser doesn't actually have a great deal of data to work with/from for this race...

...but I don't think I want to be backing a hold-up horse here. I'm not deterred about a mid-division runner though, as the sample size isn't big enough to be conclusive. So, based on how they've run of late...

Jerrysback is a confirmed hold-up horse, so that's likely to be an issue, as it might well be for Corach Rambler. I did actually like the latter to get involved here, but coming from the back over 3m5f on soft ground in such a high quality race might be tough when up in class and weight and if I'm being true to the process, then Achille will probably have to go too, which again is a shame.

This leaves me with (in card order) Notachance, Minella Encore, Chirico Vallis, Gericault Roque and Game Line from which I'll make a selection (or two). I'm well aware that such a quick superficial runthrough might have already discarded the winner, but I hope to still a profitable angle.

Summary

I've left myself with five (same number as places paid by the bookies) to consider, I could (but probably won't) say back all five or equally likely say back none, so let's have a quick look.

Notachance has made the frame in half of his ten starts over fences, winning three times including winning this race off the same mark last year. He loves soft ground, gets the trip readily and should have a great chance of making the frame. 10/1 is a little longer than I expected, so I'll have a small E/W bet here.

Minella Encore won by 24 lengths and 18 lengths either side of being pulled up on unsuitably good ground at Cheltenham in November. Has finished 114232 in six soft ground runs, but isn't getting any younger/fitter at 10 yrs old and is up in class here and seems to be carrying too much weight off 137. Could still run to a place, but I'd want a bit more than 14/1.

Chirico Vallis is in a similar boat at the age of ten and his chasing record suggests he either wins (3 of 10), fails to finish (2 x F and 2 x PU) or doesn't make the frame. I don't see him winning here, so something needs to change to make him get placed and I'm not entirely sure that stepping up in class with a 5lb rise for an all-out holding on win over 4.5 furlongs shorter is going to help him, so he's a no from me and it's probably why you can get 25/1 about him.

Gericault Roque is probably the one to beat here, as he's always there or thereabouts and any horse who has beaten him so far has had to make the frame to do so. For me, he definitely makes the frame, but at 9/2, he's no E/W bet for me and although I think he's one of the more likely winners, they're not attractive odds. They're fair odds, nothing more and I certainly wouldn't talk you out of backing him, but I won't be.

Game Line is a strange one, he has the profile for a sfot ground stayer, he's experienced, he's getting weight all round despite winning three of seven last year, yet he's the 40/1 outsider. And that's because he's a Class 3 horse at best, trying Class 1 racing for the first time, he's got a new (short on winners) jockey on board and his best form usually comes a little later in the season. Yet I'm still weirdly drawn to him, he could well make the frame, you know and from a prominent racing position could be handily placed to outrun his odds, so I think I will have a (very) small dabble at 40's.

Good Luck however you play it.

Chris

 

Racing Insights, 18th December 2021

Saturday's free GOLD feature is the rather splendid Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers will tend to turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to opening up this report, we also have our usual daily selection of free races, which consists of...

  • 11.40 Lingfield
  • 12.35 Navan
  • 12.50 Lingfield
  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 3.35 Ascot

As is often the case, my fairly stringent settings for the TJC report mean that I don't have a plethora of qualifiers, but my 5yr course handicap filter has two possibles, one of which runs in one of our free races...

...so it makes perfect sense (to me, anyway) to take a look at the 1.50 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m3f on Good To Soft ground. Our runners will go right handed to tackle 16 fences in a bid to win £13,008...

Of the eleven, only Dolos, Slate House and Guy are winless in their last few races, although the latter has hit the crossbar several times and Slate House looks the weakest on results alone. He's one of seven runners stepping up in class here with only Dolos, Diego du Charmil, Sully D'Oc AA and Guy having raced at this Class 2 level last time out.

The top three on the card (Dolos, Diego du Charmil & Sully D'Oc AA) have all won here before with Diego the only one of the three without a couse and distance win. Four others (Knight In Dubai, Palmers Hill, Slate House & Golden Whisky) however, have won at this trip in the past.

Financier hasn't been seen since winning at Hereford just over nine months ago, but his ten rivals have all had the benefit of a run in the past six weeks and Financier's layoff is a concern for me, as is the form of Dolos, Ornua and Slate House (especially with the latter pair stepping up in class).

In fact I'm going to be quite brutal here and omit those four from the equation right now, as we assess relevant form via Instant Expert...

It's good to see that all seven have some green on display, but the lack of Class 2 chasing success is the eyecatching stat for me, however closer inspection shows that both Diego & Sully have made the frame once at this level, whilst Guy has placed on both of his C2 outings. In fact, it probably makes sense to look at the overall Instant Expert picture from a place perspective...

...where Guy now looks very strong for making the frame, but the 17lb weight hike since his last win might be more than enough to stop him getting home first, whereas both Diego & Knight in Dubai run off marks lower than their own last wins. With regards to class, I should probably add that Diego has 2 wins and a place from 8 Class 1 runs, whilst Sully's C1 record has a win and a place from four efforts, so I'm now less concerned about their ability to run well at this level.

The final piece of the jigsaw from a Geegeez toolkit perspective is to look at how the race might be run and based off their most recent outings...

...I'd expect the pace to be set by the likes of Golden Whisky and Ornua. Palmers Hill is likely to run in mid-division with Dolos & Sully probably separating him from the leaders. Slate House's tactics are unclear, but Diego looks like he'll sit between Palmers Hill and the four (IMO) confirmed hold-up types, Knight In Dubai, Financier, Guy and Zhiguli.

But what's the best approach, Chris?

Well, our pace analyser says...

...which would seem to favour the likes of Sully D'Oc AA, Palmers Hill and Diego du Charmil from the seven I took to Instant Expert.

Summary

Of the seven runners I quickly narrowed the field down to, the ones catching the eye were...

Form : Palmers Hill & Guy
Instant Expert : Palmers Hill, Guy, Diego du Charmil and Sully D'Oc AA
Pace : Sully D'Oc AA, Palmers Hill and Diego du Charmil

Which essentially gives me four candidates with Palmers Hill ticking all the boxes. He's unsurprisingly the early bookies favourite (as of 4.15pm) and his odds of 7/2 are pretty much what I expected and I'll have a piece of that.

Of the other three, there's probably not much between them, but I have a sneaking suspicion that Guy's recent pair of Class 2 runner-up finishes will give him a slight edge, so he'd be my next best. He's available at 11/2, which is probably about right, but not long enough for me to go each way. Many bookies are actually paying four places here and my two remaining runners, Diego du Charmil and Sully D'Oc AA are both priced at playable E/W odds at 9/1 and 8/1 respectively and at four places, I'd be happy to have a wee punt on both.

I find/found it tough to separate the pair though, but with Diego now down in weight and having more Ascot experience, I'd probably side with him for third if pushed, but either could finish in the top three.

Racing Insights, 4th December 2021

Saturday's free feature is the rather excellent Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) Report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

Alongside this free report, we also offer the following half dozen 'free' races of the day...

  • 11.30 Navan
  • 12.27 Wetherby
  • 1.22 Chepstow
  • 2.25 Sandown
  • 2.53 Navan
  • 3.22 Wetherby

I haven't got many qualifiers of note on my TJC report for Saturday, so I'm heading to Wales for the 1.22 Chepstow,  an 11-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap chase over 2m7½f on good to soft ground. It's a Welsh Grand National trial worth just over £13k to the winner who'll have go left handed and tackle 18 fences. Here's how they line up..

Truckers Lodge won a 3m chase here just over two years ago and was very impressive when landing the 2020 Midlands National by 18 lengths. He stays all day long, was only 7.5 lengths off the winner of this year's Midlands National, despite trying to defend His crown some 12lbs higher. Now eased three pounds, could go well again if ready first up at a track where his form reads 1124127.

One For Rosie was a decent bumpers/hurdles runner (3 wins & 2 places from 7) before winning his first two efforts over fences earlier this year. He didn't live up to those standards when pulled up in a Listed contest at Ascot at the end of October, but he was markedly up in class after a layoff of 223 days. This is easier (on paper) now he's down in class, he's got the benefit of having had a run and he's 1lb lighter than his last win thanks to his jockey claiming 3lbs.

Ami Debois is better than his formline might suggest even if he hasn't won a race for almost four years. He has, however, been a runner-up in three of his last five outings and was unlucky to get brought down in this year's Grand National and now makes a yard debut for a trainer with a decent record at this venue. Not an obvious winner, but could well be good enough for a place now dropped in class and will race up with the pace.

Laskalin has won four times over fences in France, but now makes just a second UK start and a handicap debut here after not really shining in a Listed race at Wetherby five weeks ago when he could only manage 6th of 10, some 21 lengths off the winner. His French form says he has ability, but an opening handicap mark of 138 looks tough, even if the yard are in good form and do well in chases here at Chepstow.

Springtown Lake was a very creditable 5th in the Grand Sefton at Aintree this time last year, but hasn't kicked on from there, going down by 32 lengths on Boxing Day and then by 22 lengths two months later. Off track now for just over 40 weeks, he's likely to need a run or two, but if up for it fresh, he's in the hands of an in-form rider...

Run To Milan, after just 13 starts, is pretty lightly raced for a 9yr old and has made the frame in three of his last four over fences even if that run stretches back to New Year's Day 2019! He reappeared at Exeter in early November after an 8 month break, but still ran 3rd of 11, beaten by less than three lengths and would be entitled to improve for that run, even if he has been raised another 5lbs. His jockey has done well for this yard over the last year and will be hopeful of placing once more...

St Barts is even less exposed after a total of just seven races, including finishes of 215 over fences. He's also a winning pointer and much will depend on how he runs first up after not being seen since march. That said, his trainer has historically done pretty well in chases at this track, so he'd be in with a shout.

Eclair Surf was definitely going the right way over fences, finishing 2141 in his first four starts, but he then finished last but one of nine at Uttoxeter in March, beaten by 40 lengths before taking a 235-day break. He returned to action at Bangor just 24 days ago, but was a faller and he's probably best left watched here now with his yard scratching about for winners.

Colorado Doc is another without too many miles on the clock, having raced just twelve times, making the frame in six of them, winning three times. He ran really well to finish second of nine over an inadequate 2m4f at Newbury last week and I'd expect him to improve back up in trip.

Iwilldoit won nicely on his chase debut at Kelso just after Christmas 2019, but then didn't run again for 343 days before re-surfacing at the same venue in a 54 length defeat when not seeing 4m out. He then dropped in trip for three hurdles contests in the spring of this year, but I think results of 273 flatter him (he was beaten by 26 lengths LTO). Now up in class, back over fences and returning from 226 days in the shed, others make far more appeal to me, even if his yard have a good record from a small number of chasers...

Supreme Escape has a hit and miss record over fences, winning two of six by not very much, pulled up in two of the six and beaten by 31 lengths and 30 lengths in the other two. Both wins came at Class 4, so he's two grades higher here and his current mark of 124, whilst not high, is still 8lbs higher than when he won here over 3m7f in March. Add in a 42 length defeat over hurdles at Aintree a month ago and you've one to swerve here, I think, despite the following positives...

At this point, the ones I'm probably leaning towards (alphabetically) are Colorado Doc, One For Rosie, Run To Milan, St Barts and Truckers Lodge, but it looks a decent/competitive affair.

I've written above about how they've ran in recent races, but for overall form, we turn to our trusty colour-coded Instant Expert for a quick overview...

...where truckers Lodge is not only the standout of my five possibles from section 1, but he's the standout in the whole field for me here. He only falls down on class, but they all do. Springtown Lake is the only previous Class 2 winner, but Truckers Lodge has won a Listed race and is the only former Class 1 winner here. None of the field run off a lower mark than their last win and Supreme Escape's greens need the caveat that they're Class 4-based. Good to see so many winners in and around today's trip, that will hopefully mean that we have plenty of finishers, assuming they've not done too much too soon or they've not left themselves too much work to do. The pace stats will help with that...

...where the basic premise is that the further forward you race the better your chances of making the frame (61.1% of leaders get placed!) and ultimately going on to win. Leaders have won 22.2% of their races, which makes them three times more likely than the rest of the field.

So, who will set the pace?

Well, the recent pace scores are very interesting with most of the field liking to get on with things...

Seven of the eleven have an average pace score of 3.00 or higher, including my five from section 1.. If they all go at it from the start, then it could really test the stamina of the leading bunch, which might be right up Truckers Lodge's street, as he has good heavy ground form and has won at 4m2f. In fact he has 4 wins and 2 places from 10 at 3 miles and beyond, whilst both Run To Milan and St Barts have three places from four at 3m+, winning once and twice respectively.

Summary

After I'd had a quick look at the card and the report angles and done a small write-up of each horse, I thought I'd want to be looking at Colorado Doc, One For Rosie, Run To Milan, St Barts and Truckers Lodge. Nothing has really changed my mind and none of the other half dozen have forced their way into my reckoning.

Of my five, I think the final two are the ones I like best. St Barts is probably a marginally better prospect than Truckers Lodge, but at 4/1 or 9/2 on his first non-Novice chase, he doesn't offer much value, especially after a break of 259 days. Truckers Lodge, however, is far more experienced, has stamina to burn and could well be massively overpriced at the 14/1 offered by Hills.

So, the bet for me, is Truckers Lodge at 14/1 E/W even if he might lose to St Barts.

Of the other three, I've very little between them if I'm honest. They'll all be up with the pace, Run To Milan is proven beyond 3m, Colorado Doc will like the conditions and gets weight from most of the field, whilst One For Rosie already has five wins and two places from ten runs, so there's consistency there. Any of the three could make/miss the frame, but at respective odds of 6/1, 11/2 and 17/2, I'd have to side with the latter if I wanted another E/W bet.