Tag Archive for: Ascot racecourse

Racing Insights, Friday 06/09/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My fairly restrictive chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have generated just one qualifier for Friday...

but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 2.35 Haydock
  • 2.45 Bangor
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 7.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton
  • 9.00 Kempton

And if I'm honest, none of those races above really float my boat, so I'll switch my attention to the day's highest-rated race, the 4.45 Ascot, a 10-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

It looks like a pretty open contest between ten runners who failed to even make the frame last time out, but Dear My Friend has won three of his last eight, Hafeet Alain is two from four, Bennetot and Theoryofeverything both won their penultimate race, Navagio is two from seven, Son of Man won on debut six starts ago and Inspiritus has two wins and fur runner-up finishes from his last eight.

Conversely Awaal, Tempus and Classic are winless in their most recent 7, 14 and 7 races respectively.

All ten ran in this grade last time out and Son of Man makes a yard debut for Jim Boyle, whilst receiving a 5lb weight allowance as the sole 3yo in the race, but he's one of four runners (along with Theoryofeverything, Classic and Inspiritus) who have yet to win over today's trip, whilst only Tempus has scored here at Ascot previously, landing a pair of course and distance handicaps in 2020 and 2022, but sadly they don't show up on the two-year overview on Instant Expert, which says he's 0 from 6 here in that period...

He's also 0/5 at Class 2 and 0/10 over a mile, which probably explains why he's 13lbs below his last win. Hafeet Alain is probably the best asuited by these conditions, but there are questions to be asked about Bennetot (class/trip), Theoryofeverything (class), Classic (class/trip) and Awaal (class), if I apply 'my red after 5+ runs' criteria/rule. With so much red around, we're going to ned to look at the place data to see if any have come close to winning...

...and this launches Awaal right into contention too. He's going to race from widest of all in stall 10 and whilst there's a marginal win bias for those drawn more centrally, he's in the right place to make the frame as the PB3 scores suggest stalls 4 and higher are the ideal starting points if we use a figure of 0.50 as our benchmark...

From a pace perspective, leaders and hold-up horses tend to fare best with those caught in the middle not doing as well...

...and if recent efforts are anything to go by, the pace is likley to be set by Hafeet Alain and Inspiritus...

...with Bennetot and Navagio the likely back markers.

Summary

There's no real standout pick for me here today having done my usual checks. I've got it in my head that the likes of Awaal and Bennetot would be the ones to beat today based on past endeavours, but if I'm putting horses forward based on the racecard/tools provided, then there's nothing there to back up my thoughts and we're not relying on gut feeling here.

What the above analysis does tell us is that Hafeet Alain has won two of his last four and was the pick on Instant Expert. he's also likely to set the tempo of the race which gives him a great chance of making the frame, so my tentative suggestion today is Hafeet Alain as an E/W option. He was a 10/1 shot at 3.50pm with Hills, but will probably find at least one rival too good for him.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 10/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

for 14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 3.05 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.00 Kilbeggan
  • 6.52 Lingfield

The TJC report has a couple of Class 1 (1 x Gr3 and 1 x Lst) races from nearby (to me, anyway) Haydock park, but the most valuable UK race on Saturday is on our list of free racecards, the 4.30 Ascot, aka the Shergar Cup Mile, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good ground...

Top-weight Carrytheone was the only one to win last time out, but New Image was a runner-up and like Carrytheone, has won two of his last five starts and three of his last seven. Yantarni has actually won three of his last four (admittedly at lower grades than this), whilst Talis Evolvere, Tacarib Bay, Spirit Catcher and the reserve Orbaan have all won once in the last seven.

Conversely, Silent Film, Tempus, Bless Him, Bopedro and the reserve Urban Sprawl are currently winless in their last 11, 13, 14, 11 and 17 races respectively.

Spirit Catcher makes a yard debut for Philp Kirby today, whilst Yantarni steps up in class for the second race in a row, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

Tacarib Bay, New Image and Urban Sprawl have yet to win over a mile, but in their defence the first pair have yet to tackle the trip, whilst the latter is 0 from 10! Urban Sprawl has however won here at Ascot before, albeit over 7f, as has Orbaan whilst Tempus and Bless Him have both won over course and distance.

Our two-year form overview via Instant Expert makes for some difficult reading if truth be told and I even included the Class 3 stats in a bid to make the data more palatable, but that failed too!

There's certainly more negative than positive there, especially if the reserve Urban Sprawl looks best suited! My main concerns about these win stats revolve around Carrytheone (going), Silent Film (class), Tacarib Bay (class), Tempus (trip), Bless Him (going, class and track), Bopedro (going, class and trip), Spirit Catcher (class and trip), Yantarni (trip) and Orbaan (going, class, track and trip).

So with so many negative stats, I think we're going to need some help from the place data from the above races...

Doubts/concerns remain about several of these, but I think I'm going to move forward with Carrytheone, Talis Evolvere, Bopedro, Spirit Catcher, New Image and the reserve Urban Sprawl as possible placers based purely on the data above. These are set to run from stalls 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 and 12 (reserve), so of there's any draw bias here, I'm hoping that the lower stalls are the ones to benefit.

Let's check...

...and it looks like stalls 4 to 7 might be the optimal area to run from, so my 2 to 8 range might not be too badly drawn. As for race tactics/pace, those races above seem to have favoured those held up for a late run. it's not a huge advantage, but hold-up horses have won 47.9% of those races and provided 41.7% of the placers, despite only making up 37.8% of the runners...

Therefore, in an ideal world, one or more of my runners drawn in stalls 2 to 8 will be hold-up types. To work out whether that will be the case, we can look at their last few races...

...and of those five, Carrytheone is the confirmed hold-up runner. New Image, Bopedro and Talis Evolvere will also nearer the back than the front too.

Summary

Carrytheone is our only LTO winner, he was one of my chosen half from Instant Expert and has the ideal draw and pace makeup to go well here. He has two wins and a place from his last five and I think he might just have enough to get home ahead of the clearly in-form New Image.

New Image is probably the best horse in the race, but has only won 1 from 6 on Turf and has yet to tackle a mile. His pace profile doesn't quite stack up as well as Carrytheone, but he's going to be thereabouts; it could be tight!

As of 4.35pm on Friday, the market sadly agreed with me about who the best two runners might be...

If I wanted a longer-priced runner for the frame or as an E/W option, then Bopedro is borderline on price, but the 14/1 Talis Evolvere might be the one to outrun his odds.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated no UK combos for me to check out but thankfully, as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 2.05 York
  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Ascot
  • 6.30 Salisbury
  • 6.45 Lingfield

...and I've got reasons for not wanting to look at any of those like maidens, jump jockeys on the Flat and field sizes, so I'm going to randomly select the day's highest rated/most valuable race that has at least 6 runners and that happens to be the 2.25 Ascot, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Group 3 Flat contest over a right-handed mile on good/good to firm ground that is being watered to stop it getting any quicker...

I strongly suspect that this will be a race of two halves with the three three year olds (Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano) using their 8lbs weight allowance to battle with Sirona for positions in the first four home.

One of those 3yo's Devoted Queen is our only LTO winner and she defends a 3 from 3 record here today. Elsewhere Doom won three starts ago and has seven top-3 finishes on the bounce, whilst Naomi Lapaglia has won two of her six starts but might need a run after a 10 month break.

Sirona won four starts ago and then made the frame in a pair of Group 3 races before a 4 length Group 1 defeat last time out. Friendly Soul has won two of her three starts, but was well beaten in the Musidora and Soprano won here over course and distance five weeks ago and was third in a Listed race last time out.

On the cold list, though, are Julia Augusta and Thornbrook after ten and seven successive defeats respectively, but both have won over today's trip unlike Doom and Sirona, whilst our sole course win was that by the fast-finisher Soprano over this track and trip five weeks ago. Instant Expert looks like this...

...with the three year olds taking centre stage, although Doom and Sirona have good place records. Sirona and Thornbrook's Class 1 stats aren't great, though and Sirona has also been found wanting at this trip, so I'm less keen on her right now even if the draw might help her more than Thornbrook in stall 1...

...there's not actually much in it to be fair, especially from a place perspective and I suspect it'll be race tactics aka pace that sorts the wheat from the chaff here.

That said, there's not a great deal there either, but those in mid-division have fared slightly better than the others, which could be good news for Devoted Queen and Friendly Soul based on past efforts...

Summary

The three 3yo's are the best off at the weights with the 4yo Sirona having the joint highest OR and it's these four that I think are the ones to focus on.

Sirona obviously doesn't have the 8lbs weight allowance and wasn't as impressive on Instant Expert as the other three, plus her late run hold-up style could go against her here, so she's going to be the odd one out of my quartet, leaving me with Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano.

I don't think there's much between them, but on form you'd have to put Soprano third and then make a decision on the other two. Devoted Queen is drawn higher, but Friendly Soul has pace either side of her, but she did run poorly last time out, so its Devoted Queen - Friendly Soul - Soprano for me.



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Racing Insights, Friday 26/07/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 3.10 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Ascot
  • 6.30 Sandown
  • 6.50 Chepstow

...the highest-rated of which is the 3.35 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good/good to firm ground...

Chasing Aphrodite, Insanity and Mutaawid all won last time out, whilst Burdett Road, Hosaamm, Wonder Kid and Mount Atlas all had top-three finishes.

All nine runners have won at least one of their last three outings, but whilst Burdett Road and Tabletalk drop down in class today, Chasing Aphrodite and Wonder Kid are up from Class 3, Insanity is up from Class 4 and Hosaamm steps up from Class 5 for his handicap debut.

It's also handicap debut day for Mutaaid, Tabletalk and Mount Atlas, whilst Alfred Boucher runs for the first time since being pulled up at Chester 22 months ago. He's entitled to need the run, but might be worth keeping an eye out for in future as he finished 2212 at Class 2 in the four runs before he was pulled up LTO.

Top weight Burdett Road might also need the run as he comes back from a six month break since a Grade 2 runner-up run at Cheltenham over hurdles and now runs on the Flat for the first time in eleven months. Insanity has been off the track for three months, but the others have all had at least one run in the last 13 (Wonder Kid) to 55 (Tabletalk) days.

Only four of this field (Alfred Boucher, Insanity, Mutaawid & Wonder Kid) have scored over today's trip with Alfred Boucher winning over course and distance three years ago; Burdett Road (1m2f) and Chasing Aphrodite (1m) have also tasted success on this track in the past as shown below in the 2-year stats on Instant Expert...

As you can see, the going shouldn't be an issue to most of this field, but they are shy on Class 2 runs/wins although Chasing Aphrodite is also 2 from 3 at Class 3. Insanity and Wonder Kid are the pick of the pack over this trip, but the latter is now rated some 11lbs higher than his last win, as is top-weight Burdett Road. The place stats from those races tell a similar story and neither help nor hinder us...

With regards to the draw, past races here over this going, track and trip have favoured runners in stalls 5, 6 and 7 from a win perspective, with those berthed in stall 5 or higher having the best chance of making the frame, although the margins are a little tighter for the places...

...whilst the pace data from those races suggests that horses can win from anywhere in the pack, even if those in mid-division haven't quite done as well as others...

...creating this resultant draw/pace heat map...

So, we can see where we'd like each runner to be in the field as they run. Those drawn centrally can run their own race, but those drawn lowest will probably need to lead, whilst the higher drawn trio would be advised to sit in. We now need to check how they 'normally' run, now some of these only have three runs to their name, so looking at the entire field's last three outings...

...we see that Burdett Road might well fulfil the role of high drawn hold-up horse, whilst from the lowest drawn trio, Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid may well be the ones setting the tempo of the race.

Summary

I think I'm going to go with the three who aren't drawn centrally, but do tick the pace/draw heat map boxes ie Chasing Aphrodite, Mutaawid and Burdett Road.

I know Burdett Road might need the run, but his last two races were a win and a runner-up finish in Grade 2 company, albeit over hurdles and his last flat handicap run saw him win here at Ascot at this grade last year. he'd be an unlikely winner, but a 'live' E/W prospect if the price is/was right.

Chasing Aphrodite and Mutaawid both won last time out, one has won here and one has won over this trip, but the handicap debutant Mutaawid gets an 11lbs weight for age allowance and that should swing things his way .

The bookies, however, take a slightly different view on things and at 5.30pm Thursday they went...

...they do agree that Mutaawid is the likeliest winner here, but are less keen on Burdett Road and very cold about Chasing Aphrodite's prospects, but I think he might be a decent 14/1 E/W bet.



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Racing Insights, Friday 12/07/24

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have yielded just one qualifier...

...for me to consider along with our daily list of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.15 Ascot
  • 2.25 Newmarket
  • 4.15 Dundalk
  • 4.45 Newmarket
  • 5.10 Ascot
  • 5.50 Chepstow

The highest-rated of all those races above is obviously the Group 2 Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes, aka the 2.25 Newmarket, but 2 yr old fillies really aren't my thing. Next 'best' on the list is the 5.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 6f on good to soft ground...

...where surprisingly not one of them managed to win last time out and only Rhythm n Hooves had a top three finish as a three-length runner-up at Newmarket, but half a doxen of the field have won at least once in their last seven starts (Glenfinnan, Executive Decision and Bishops Crown all doing so twice), whilst Mums Tipple, Fresh and The Big Board's current cold spells stand at 12. 14 and 8 consecutive defeats respectively.

Fresh and Mums Tipple's hopes of a return to winning ways are boosted by them dropping down a class, as do the other two runners, Glenfinnan and Rizg, in the top four of the weights. Executive Decision also drops in class, but The Big Board steps up a class despite losing each of his eight outings. Rizg and Jarraaf both run in handicaps for just the second time and top weight Glenfinnan makes a debut in cheekpieces.

All of them have already tasted victory over today's trip and both Rhythm n Hooves and The Big Board have already won on this track, albeit over 5f, but Glenfinnan, Mums Tipple and Fresh are all former course and distance winners with Glenfinnan's win two months and three starts ago the most recent and he was only beaten by less than two lengths here over track and trip last time out, when a gallant 5th of 25 in the Wokingham. That said, he still has to play second fiddle to Executive Decision when it comes to looking at the two-year win records documented by Instant Expert...

...where the red flags for me are with Mums Tipple and Fresh over today's trip, although the latter's recent poor form sees him some 11lbs below his last winning mark, so he could be dangerously weighted if finally finding his feet again. And I suppose you could say the same about The Big Board, who is 8lbs lower than his own last win and has no red on the graphic above. He could be a contender for the frame, if the following place stats are kind...

Sadly, I'd say they weren't kind enough for him to be in my immediate eye-line, but he can stay under consideration for now, but I'm going to put Rizg, Fresh and Jarraaf on the 'doubtful' list prior to checking the draw and pace stats.

The afore-mentioned Rizg is actually drawn in stall 1, which has done extremely well here in the past which I presume is down to having the rail as a guide. From a place perspective, I'd say those drawn in 5 or higher have fared best of all...

...in 50-odd races that have slightly favoured those willing to get on with things...

...which could be good news for the relatively in-form Rhythm n Hooves if the field's last few runs are anything to go by...

...and although doubtful after Instant Expert, Jarraaf looks well poised from a pace perspective and he's just about on the 'right' side of the draw stats, so he could be interesting.

Summary

Glenfinnan was the one that I thought might come out of this the best, a course and distance winner just two months and three starts ago and arriving here off the back of a really good effort in the Wokingham. Sadly the pace/draw stats don't back up his claims entirely, but I think he's dangerous here. Jarraaf is unexposed under these conditions, is just about in the right part of the draw and may well be the pace-setter today, which puts him in contention alongside fellow front runner Rhythm n Hooves.

Rhythm n Hooves is in decent nick with a win three starts ago and a runner-up finish last time out, he'll be up with the pace and is drawn even better than Jarraaf. He doesn't have a great record at Class 3, but did win a 26-runner Class 2 handicap here last summer beating subsequent Group 2 and Listed class runners in the process.

So, that's my three against the field in what looks a pretty open contest.



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Statistical Guide to Royal Ascot 2024 Mile Handicaps

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By the time you read this, Royal Ascot will be just days away, writes David Renham. It is one of my favourite meetings of the year, and I am guessing that will be the same for many readers. In this article, I will delve into Royal Ascot data going back 15 years (2009-2023) in preparation for the upcoming festival. Any profit/loss has been calculated to Industry SP, but I will quote Betfair SP where appropriate. My focus will be exclusively on Royal Ascot's mile handicap races.

There are four one mile handicaps scheduled for this year’s meeting: the Royal Hunt Cup, Britannia, Sandringham, and the relatively new Kensington Palace. The first three are run on the straight course; the Kensington Palace transpires on the round course. These races tend to have big fields, especially the straight-track ones. Going back to 2009, 41 of the 49 mile handicaps at the Royal meeting have seen at least twenty runners go to post. Only one of these took place on the round course.

Market Rank

Firstly, let us look at the performance of different positions in the market. Any ‘joints’ have been combined, so when it says ‘favourites’, it includes joint favourites. I have added each way percentages as many punters bet each way in big field handicaps:

 

 

It is interesting to note how well favourites and second favourites have fared, scoring in 17 of the 49 races. This equates to winning 34.7% of the races from just 8.7% of the total runners. If you focused on clear favourites, their results improved to 9 wins from 43 (SR 20.9%) for a profit of £6.75 (ROI +15.7%). Betting to BSP would have slightly improved matters to +£10.02 (ROI +23.3%). From a place perspective, it certainly looks worth considering putting either the favourite or second favourite in any placepot perm.

Horses outside the top ten in the betting have a poor record, as you would expect. Big-priced winners will occasionally pop up, but losses of over 65p in the £ for these outsiders do not inspire me too much to look beyond the more obvious. The biggest-priced winner has been 40/1 (Rising Star in the Kensington Palace in 2022), and she is the only winner from 357 horses that have started 40/1 or bigger.

Race Type Last Time Out (LTO)

Looking at the type of race these runners ran in last time out has uncovered a potential edge as the table below shows:

 

 

Horses that contested a handicap last time have a much better record than those who raced in a non-handicap. Regarding Betfair SP returns, LTO handicap runners lost less than 1p in the £, while LTO non-handicap runners lost a whopping 53p in the £.

Beaten Distance Last Time Out

My next port of call is to look at LTO performance, focusing on how far horses were beaten. The graph below looks first at the win strike rate (LTO winners are grouped with horses that were beaten less than a length):

 

 

Winners/horses beaten less than a length LTO have certainly got the better of the ‘battle’ from a win strike rate perspective. How does that equate to returns to SP? Here are those findings:

 

 

We see a good correlation here with the previous graph—losses of around 13p in the £ for LTO winners/horses beaten less than a length. In fact, at BSP, this 13% loss became a 12.5% profit. In contrast, there have been enormous losses for horses that were beaten one or more lengths in that most recent spin.

Finally, for this section, a look at the A/E indices:

 

 

There is a further positive correlation here, and all the data gathered points to keeping a close eye on any LTO runner that won or ran the winner to less than a length.

Market Rank LTO

Whenever I am interested in backing a horse, I always look back at their last run's price or market position. Indeed, personally, I often look at their previous three or four races in terms of odds/market rank. Hence, I thought seeing what I could find for these Ascot races would be worthwhile. Here are my findings:

 

 

As you can see, the percentage play is to be backing horses in the top five of the betting LTO rather than those 6th or higher on their most recent outing. They are better value; they have more chance of winning and more chance of getting placed. Regarding BSP returns, horses first to fifth in the betting last time would have lost you 13p in the £, and those 6th+ would have stung you for 41p in the £.

Draw Position

The draw in big field straight course races at Royal Ascot has been discussed in past articles, including this one. Arguably, it can be the most important factor, especially if one section of the track seems to be at a significant disadvantage. Here is some draw analysis of the last nine Royal Ascot straight track mile handicap races, covering the years 2021 to 2023:

 

 

Taking all nine races in combination, a draw in the top half (middle to high) has tended to be favoured.

There are other big field handicaps run at the meeting, including the Wokingham over 6f and the Buckingham Palace raced over 7f. Last year, both these races displayed a higher draw bias, so taking these two races in conjunction with the three mile straight track handicaps, you have to conclude that higher draws generally held sway at the 2023 Royal meeting.

What will happen this year? Well, that is the 64-million-dollar question. Only time will tell...

Running Style

Onto an area that is finally starting to get more attention from the racing press, and it is one I have been championing and studying for a long time. For this section, I have focussed on the forty 1-mile handicaps with the most extensive fields (20+) run on the straight course, contested between 2009 and 2023.

21 of the 40 races (52.5%) were won by a horse that was held up early in the race. Hold-up horses account for 36% of all the runners, so they have won around 1.45 times more than they statistically should. It should also be noted that hold-up horses have been twice as likely to get placed compared to prominent runners.

I thought comparing the Percentage of Rivals Beaten (PRB) for all running styles in these 20 runner+ straight course races would be useful. Here are the splits:

 

 

Based on the data shared previously, it is no surprise to see hold-up horses comfortably doing best.

As we have already seen, these races contain plenty of big-priced runners/outsiders, so below I have narrowed down the run style data and homed in on those runners that started at 20/1 or shorter. Did the PRB figures project a similar trend? Here are the splits:

 

 

We see the same pattern as before. Hence, looking at both sets of figures, the ‘ideal’ type will be a horse that comes from off the pace and delivers a challenge late, be it from a position near the back early or from a more midfield sit.

**

Summary

These big field mile handicaps certainly seem to have some general trends that we can apply to all four races. This is even though all four have differences (e.g. sex of runners, age restrictions, etc). In terms of the general trends, favourites and second favourites perform above expectations; last time winners or those beaten less than a length have proved much better value than those beaten LTO by one length or more; horses that ran in a handicap LTO have outperformed those that ran previously in a non-handicap; horses that were in the top five of the betting LTO are better betting propositions than those who were 6th or bigger in the betting.

As regards the big field straight course handicaps, we can add that a higher draw has been preferable recently, but it is important to keep an open mind. In terms of run style, the winners will typically race mid-pack or towards the back early.

-DR



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Racing Insights, Saturday 07/10/2023

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following couple of runners for me to look at...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...plus, as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.50 Ascot
  • 2.55 Curragh
  • 3.35 Ascot
  • 4.00 Fontwell
  • 6.00 Wolverhampton
  • 7.30 Wolverhampton

...the best of which, on paper at least, is the first on the list, the 1.50 Ascot, a 9-runner, 3yo+ Listed Flat race over a straight 5f  on good ground...

Glamorous Breeze and Korker both won last time out, but the former steps up from Class 4 to run here, whilst the latter is up one class, as is fellow joint top weight Chipstead, who now wears cheekpieces for the first time. The other joint top weight, Emaraaty Ana is the highest rated and is at least 3lbs 'well-in' with all his rivals, but is one of only two runners (Rage of Bamby being the other) without a win in his recent formline, but he has been second and third in two Listed events in his last two outings.

Zudu Spirit makes a UK debut here and will sport a first-time tongue tie on his opening effort for new trainer George Boughey some two months after his last French run for Mauricio Delcher-Sanchez at Deauville; the rest of the field have all raced in the last month or so with only Rage of Bamby yet to win over today's trip. With regards to previous Ascot runs, only Rage of Bamby and Zudu Spirit have yet to run at Ascot, but Instant Expert says the other half dozen runners are a combined 0 from 15 here!

Zudu Spirit has no previous UK form, hence the blank line of data. Elsewhere Emaraaty Ana looks weak, but does get the trip with only Chipstead having a better strike rate over 5f. For consistency, Nymphadora probably shades it, but there's not much to writhe home about from those win stats, so let's check place form...

...which represents a complete turnaround for Emaraaty Ana, who now looks the one to beat on the above data with Designer now looking the weakest. I often revert to place for if there isn't much 'green' on the win stats!

The draw stats for the small number of previous past similar races suggest that there is very little/no advantage in being drawn in any particular stall from either a win or place basis...

...whilst the pace stats for those races say that leaders do very well at making the frame but are often beaten by those racing prominently just behind...

...as only 10% of the leaders who made the frame managed to hold on to win, whilst 61.5% of the prominent running placers managed to beat the leader home. If we look at the field's recent outings...

...it looks like Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora might well be allowed to dictate terms here with not many of the others looking like they'd want to go with them and based on those pace averages above, our pace/draw heat map looks like this...

Summary

For me, Emaraaty Ana and Nymphadora are the best two runners in the race and they look like they'll control things from the front. The former holds the advantage in terms of ratings to weight carried, but hasn't won for a while, whilst the latter won a Listed race recently and was a runner-up beaten by just a neck in a Group 3 last time out.

On that basis, Nymphadora looks better value at 11/2 than Emaraaty Ana does at 9/4. As for a third horse for the frame, I fancy Rage of Bamby and Korker to go well and I'd probably sway towards the former based on ratings/weight, even though the latter won last time out. This pair are 6/1 and 4/1 respectively so no E/W pick there.

If I was to try and highlight one that might go well at a bigger price, then maybe Designer at 12's might be the one, but she'd need some luck to get ahead of a couple of the others I've mentioned.



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Racing Insights, Friday 06/10/2023

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have yielded just two UK qualifiers...

...but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Downpatrick
  • 4.07 Fontwell
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.10 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Dundalk
  • 6.45 Newcastle

...and of the six UK races above (from the report and the free list), I'm going to look at the 4.30 Ascot, an 8-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed two miles on good ground, that will be softer in places...

No LTO winners here, but Art de Vivre, Brave Knight, El Jasor and Sea Stone all won their penultimate starts and the latter was third last time out, as was Oceanline.

Hy Brasil has been off the track the longest at 151 days but he now returns for a second crack at winning a handicap and is tongue-tied for the first time, whilst all his rivals have raced in the last five weeks or so. He's also stepping up a class from his last run, as are Oceanline and Brave Knight. Educator actually drops down a level, but bottom weight Art de Vivre is up two classes here.

Art de Vivre, is however, one of three 3 yr olds in the field along with El Jasor and Brave Knight and they'll get a useful 9lbs weight allowance for their age. None of this field have won here at Ascot before (mind you, only two have raced here), but three (Sea Stone, Brave Knight & Art de Vivre) have won over a two-mile trip.

Instant Expert looks like this...

...with Alright Sunshine relishing the going and the class of race, but not the track nor trip! Sea Stone probably looks the best, but there's not much to work with here, so let's look at place form...

I think that suggests Alright Sunshine isn't going to enjoy the 2m trip here and indeed, his best Flat form has been over 1m4f. He has, however got a decent record over hurdles at this class/trip, so all might not be lost, as shown below for all codes...

...but it's still Sea Stone from that for me. Alright Sunshine does look capable of a place and although I suspect the draw shouldn't be making or breaking a runner's chance here, he has bagged stall 1. The draw stats for similar past races say...

...that there is no real discernible draw bias at play here and that we'd be better off focusing on the pace of the race, where the key to winning here seems to be a prominent/leading run...

...with hold-up horses struggling most to make the frame. Our field's last few outings have gone as follows...

...with the top four of obvious interest.

Summary

The above analysis doesn't reflect this, but Sea Stone is the one to beat here in my opinion. He's in the best form and still looks ahead of the assessor, but I can't back him at 5/2, as those odds reflect poor value in a competitive race like this, plus he doesn't fit my profiling above 😉

Brave Knight, El Jasor, Hy Brasil & Art de Vivre are prominent/leading types and I want to focus on this quartet. I'm against Hy Brasil due to his layoff, handicap inexperience, class rise and a lack of form, but the other three all won two starts ago and that form allied to their likely running style makes them decent options to make the frame.

Sadly they're all currently priced at 5/1 or shorter, so I own't be having an E/W bet here, but this trio and Sea Stone should be the ones filling the places.

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 09/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

1-year form...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 2.00 Ascot
  • 2.05 Thirsk
  • 2.10 Kempton
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 6.30 Wolverhampton

...and from the free feature and the free races, there's a UK Group 1 contest (too many runners for my liking) and a couple of Class 2 handicaps, so let's tackle one of those to see how Charlie Appleby's likely favourite Victory Dance might fare in the 3.10 Ascot, a 9-runner, Class 2, 3yo flat handicap over a right handed 1m4f on good ground...

Gallant Lion has won his last four and overactive comes here on a hat-trick, so they're the ones in the best form, but Victory Dance is 12133 from his five UK starts and Alsakib is 2113 from his four outings, so plenty arrive here in good nick with only Struth struggling to win, having lost seven on the bounce.

Top weight Victory Dance makes a handicap debut here and wears blinkers for the first time, but does drop down a class. Gallant Lion and Dancing In Paris are both up one class and Overactive is up two levels, whilst Benacre wears cheekpieces for the first time.

We should have no fitness issues with all having raced in the last 7-37 days, but we've no previous course winners (mind you, only Struth & Benacre) have been here and only three (Struth, Overactive & True Legend) have won over a similar trip as shown on Instant Expert...

...where Struth looks very weak. Most have won on good ground already, but only Alsakib has won in the grade although I should point out that Victory Dance has won a Listed race. Overactive comes here on a hat-trick after back to backs over this kind of trip, but he is used to slightly quicker ground. That said, it is very dry right now. Let's just have a quick look at the place stats before checking any possible effect of the draw...

Struth remains weak here and after a run of seven defeats, I suspect this now becomes number eight. There's not a lot of data there, but most of it is positive so I'll keep an open mind prior to checking the draw analyser, which suggests that those drawn lowest might struggle...

...whilst our pace analyser says that those races above have suited those runners willing to set the pace or those wanting to hang back for a late run, whilst those caught between the two stools have come off worst...

and the pace/draw combinations look like this...

...suggestiong that thos drawn lowest will need to get a shift on early doors to stand much chance, whilst those drawn highest can sit further back for longest. We know the draw already and we log the pace scores from each horse's run, so we can create a pace/draw heat map for this race...

...where the high drawn mid-division runner would be Victory Dance and possibly True Legend, who would also score well as a hold-up horse. Gallant Lion and Struth play the role of mid-drawn mid-div runners, another successful combination.

Summary

Featured runner Victory Dance ticks boxes on form and ability, his trainer/jockey do really well together and he looks to have the ideal pace/draw profile for this race. He's best priced at 4/1 right now and that's probably as good as I'd hoped for and I don't see many of these beating him. Alsakib would be a possible challenger here, based on form, although the pace/draw is doing him no favours. He's going to be thereabouts, as is Overactive who might well chase Victory Dance in the early stages.

Alsakib is too shot to back E/W at 9/2, but the 7/1 and drifting about Overactive is tempting, despite his step up in class. One at bigger odds who might do better than expected could be widest-drawn hold-up type True Legend. He didn't see 1m6f out last time at York, but was previously in good form over trips like today's and at 10/1 could be an E/W play.

 



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Racing Insights, Friday 08/09/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers for Friday, but I can, of course, always fall back upon our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.25 Down Royal
  • 5.20 Ascot
  • 5.30 Down Royal
  • 5.40 Newcastle
  • 9.00 Kempton

...the best of which looks like being the 5.20 Ascot, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo flat handicap over a straight 7f on good ground...

No recent LTO winners here, although Vermilion did score when last seen some 349 days ago, but the form horse is surely Kimnkate who has finished 1121212 since adopting blinkers in June of this year. Gulmarg, Metahorse and Boy Browning were also placed on their last runs, although both Gulmarg and Metahorse haven't won for a while (both have lost 10 in a row!) with the same applying to Boy Browning (winless in 6), whilst the lightly raced filly, Liberty is a three-race maiden.

She now makes her handicap debut off a mark of 76 and the returning Vermilion also debuts in handicap contests here, but he's rated at 83. He does, however drop a class, whilst Liberty steps up a class. Boy Browning, Starlight Nation and De Bruyne are also up in class with Pastiche, Kimnkate & Zouzanna dropping down.

We know Vermilion has been off for nearly a year, but there shouldn't be any fitmess issues with the others, who aside from Starlight Nation (off 73 days), have all raced in the last two to six weeks. None of the field have won here before, but all bar Havana Pusey, Zouzanna, Boy Browning, Liberty (obviously) and De Bruyne have at least won over today's trip, as shown on Instant Expert...

...where off an admittedly small number of runs, Pastiche is the eye-catcher. Metahorse and Gulmarg seem to have struggled to win at this grade, but quite a few of these have done well at the trip. The place stats are very interesting, though, as Gulmarg and Metahorse are regular Class 4 placers, so maybe they've been unlucky?

...with this quintet the ones with the best overall profile...

These runners are drawn in stalls 3, 4, 5, 7 & 11, but over a straight sprint on good ground there shouldn't be much in the draw and the stats say...

...that there really isn't much in it, so no real advantage to be gained from any of this field, meaning that it might well come down to race tactics aka pace and those races above have gone as follows...

Sadly, we've not got much assistance there either if truth be told. The place stats are very similar across the board and it almost seems strange that hold-up horses do as well as the others. I'll show you how this group have approached their last few races, even if we're not going to use the data...

There should be plenty of early pace with Liberty, Metahorse, Vermilion, Boy Browning and Zouzanna all keen to get on with things here.

Summary

Short and possibly not very sweet today. We've not really got much from pace/draw, but we know which horses are in good form and which horses stood out on Instant Expert and whilst I'm not going to be going in too heavily after not using the pace/draw stats, my money would be for Kimnkate. She has been a revelation since being fitted with blinkers and although up 2lbs here, she looks the one to beat. She's 12121 under today's jockey and 5/1 looks fair enough.

Elsewhere, I'd expect the likes of Metahorse, Gulmarg and Pastiche to be involved, but all are too short to back E/W, whilst those priced at 8's or bigger make little appeal. Sometimes it's best to keep your money in your pocket.



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Racing Insights, Friday 28/07/23

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Friday's free feature, the Horses for Courses (H4C) report does exactly what it says on the tin ie it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at the track and is sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting and as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but as ever please refer to our User Guide for further information!

My own settings (you get to choose your own parameters) for the H4C report...

...are quite restrictive but have still produced a couple of qualifiers...

...including Challet, whose record at York over the last couple of years reads 113337.

Our daily feature is always supplemented by a number of 'free' racecards...

  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.00 York
  • 5.22 Cork
  • 5.57 Cork

I'm not too enthused by either H4C race nor the free list, but with the recent poor weather affecting the going across the country, I think I'll look for a race where trip and going are at the end of the spectrum, so let's try the 4.45 Ascot, which is an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground, that should be better in places...

Glamorous Breeze and Cruise both won last time out and both are two from three, although the former fared better than the latter on their penultimate runs and she also drops in class here, as do Lil Guff, Cuban Breeze and Woolhampton, but bottom weight Sarah's Verse is up a level here. Cuban Breeze is winless for almost a year now, losing 17 on the bounce, but has made the frame in 5 of her last six.

There's nothing new/different to report on this field and all of them have had a run in the last month, with Cuban Breeze turned back out just a week after finishing as runner-up at Newmarket. She's the only one of this bunch to have already won here at Ascot, having scored over course and distance just over a year ago off a mark 3lbs lower than today. Only Origintrail, Woolhampton and Holy Fire have yet to win over this minimum distance.

Four of the field have previously tackled soft ground, with two going on to win and four of these runners have won at this grade before, with only Holy Fire yet to run at Class 4 on turf, according to Instant Expert...

Lil Guff and Sarah's Verse don't seem to mind the soft ground, but most of Cuban Breeze's best form has been on Good to Firm ground (as it normally is for this meeting!) or on the tapeta at Wolverhampton. Glamorous Breeze has consistently made the frame at both class (8 from 13) and trip (17 from 27) and she has 11 top 3 finishes from 13 races over 5f at Class 4.

We don't have much data for similar past contests here at Ascot, so I've tweaked the parameters slightly to try to see if the draw might affect Glamorous Breeze's chances out in stall 8 of 8...

...but I don't think the draw will be a deciding factor. Yeah, Cuban Breeze will be grateful to have got stall 1, which has produced a freakishly large number of winners, probably due to having the rail there to keep them straight, but aside from that, there doesn't seem to be a huge bias. Cuban Breeze hasn't won for some time, but makes the frame pretty often and that consistency allied to the 'plum' draw will make her popular and I suspect that, based on her last few outings, she's likely to be up with the pace, whilst Sarah's Verse will have to come flying late on, if she's to win here...

The pace stats here, however, suggest that coming from the back wouldn't be the best move and that those furthest forward would have the best chance...

Summary

On the face of it, Cuban Breeze should be the one to beat. She has been running consistently well of late, seems to have the best of the draw and is likely to be up with the pace. Sadly, as the one to beat, she seems to do just that ie get beat! She's on a 17-race losing streak and is still only 2lbs lower than her last win and runs off the same mark as her last four runs/losses, so I'm now expecting it to be another 'close, but no cigar' run for her.

She's good for the frame and at 13/2 with Hills at 3.15pm, could be one for a place/EW bet, but for the win I prefer Glamorous Breeze for her consistency at this class/trip and she comes here in great form and I think she can land her third win in four starts. She's currently 9/2 which is about right, I'd say and I'd guess the 1-2-3 would be completed by Woolhampton or Lil Guff. Neither are long enough at 11/2 for me to go E/W and if pushed, I prefer the latter of the two.

As for our 4/1 favourite Cruise, her four races on turf have ended 4686 and I'd rather back her the next time she's on the tapeta.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 24/06/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers as follows...

30-day form

1-year form

5-year course form

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.42 Perth
  • 2.17 Perth
  • 3.17 Newmarket
  • 3.34 Ayr
  • 4.20 Ascot
  • 8.00 Limerick

Clearly the best of the TJC report / free races has to be the Hardwicke Stakes, so my last column of the week will focus upon the 4.20 Ascot, an 8-runner, Group 2 flat contest for horses aged 4 and over. It's worth over £140k to the winner, who'll tackle a right handed 1m4 on good to firm ground...

I suspect that Hukum will be fairly short here and that the market will also like Frankie's mount, Free Wind, but that might opn up a nice E/W option for us even if I end up with those two as my first picks from a field in which only Ardakan, Changingoftheguard and Deauville Legend failed to win last time out.

All of them raced at Class 1 last time around and Ardakan wears first-time cheekpieces on his UK debut. He has yet to win over this course or trip, but he's not alone, as West Wind Blows also fits that description. Deauville Legend, Grand Alliance and Free Wind have already won over this trip elsewhere, whilst Changingoftheguard, Hukum and Pyledriver have all won Class 1 races over course and distance with the latter's triumph in last year's King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes the pick.

That said, this race might just be a pipe-opener for Pyledrive to attempt to retain that crown, as he hasn't raced since that win 336 days ago and he might well need the run. Mind you, he was the runner-up in last year's Coronation Cup (behind Hukum) after another long absence. Deauville Legend hasn't raced since last November's Melbourne Cup, so he might be rusty too but the remainder have all raced this season.

Pyledriver is best off at the weights here, as he's rated 2lbs higher than Hukum with Free Wind next best. She's the only female in the race and her 3lbs weight allowance bring her to within 6lbs of Pyledriver. Worst off looks like Grand Alliance, rated some 18lbs worse than Pyledriver.

As you'd expect for a race of this magnitude, most of the field have already performed well in similar past contests and we can see this via Instant Expert...

Ardakan has no UK form, of course, but his overseas form doesn't suggest he'd be likely to win here and with Grand Alliance's numbers clearly the worst above, I'm ready to eliminate him from my enquiries too, leaving me with six to consider. Grand Alliance is drawn in stall 2 and our draw stats suggest that his low draw would also have counted against him here...

...with stalls 4 to 7 producing the most winners...

...although the place stats for stalls 8 & 9 will give hope to widest drawn Free Wind, who likes to race quite prominently tracking the leaders, but she's unlikely to lead here, as the likes of Changingoftheguard, Pyledriver and West Wind Blows are likely to battle it out early on if recent outings are anything to go by...

What is apparent here is that aside from mid-division runners faring really badly, horses van win from any draw and with any running style, as reflected in the pace/draw heatmap...

...which applied to our field looks like this...

It's always dangerous to rule out an A P O'Brien horse ridden by Ryan Moore, but I fear that Changingofthe guard might well do too much early if he has company/competition for the lead and on that basis, I'm ruling him out here and he did fade away last time out. I've already decided against Grand Alliance and Ardakan, of course and I think Deauville Legend might struggle too, especially based on the pace/draw stats.

Summary

I've eliminated four of the eight runners so far, leaving myself with Hukum, Pyledriver, West Wind Blows and Free Wind. West Wind Blows is arguably the weakest of the four, having not won higher than Listed company, but if one of the other trio fails to fire, you could have yourself a nice E/W bet at 20/1.

Of that trio, I don't think there's that much between them, but this is probably a warm-up event for Pyledriver and at current odds of 15/2, it'd just be a small E/W bet, leaving me to pick between the 2/1 fav Hukum and Frankie's 5/2 Free Wind. There's surely very little between them and they're both in good nick, but the way Frankie is riding right now, I'd have to just about side with Free Wind.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 13/05/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated just two runners under each of the 1-year overall and 1-year course form filters...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Ascot
  • 2.40 Ascot
  • 3.05 Nottingham
  • 3.30 Navan
  • 4.15 Nottingham
  • 5.55 Warwick

...and of those ten (free list plus report qualifiers), there's a Class 2 race at Ascot in both sectors. The 23-runner Victoria Cup (2.40 Ascot) is too far out of my comfort zone, so I'm going to assess the chances of Belhaven in the 2.05 Ascot, an 11-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground, that is already heavy in places...

Featured horse Belhaven was a winner last time out, as were Timeless Melody and Mountain Song, who finally got off the mark after three runner-up finishes. Only Perfect Thunder, Farhh To Shy and Beccara Rose are without a win in their recent form line.

Belhaven does however step up a class after her recent win, as do Sly Madam and Farhh To Shy. One Morning is up two classes, along with Mountain Song and Beccara Rose, whilst Timeless Melody's recent win was at Class 5! On the other hand, both Don't Tell Claire and Mottisfont are both down from recent Class 1 runs after racing in Listed / Group 3 company respectively.

Don't Tell Claire now wears cheekpieces for just the second time, Perfect Thunder makes a yard debut for Patrick Owens, whilst it's handicap debut day for One Morning, Timeless Melody, Mottisfont and Beccara Rose (who runs from 2lbs out of the handicap). It's also only the second handicap outing for top weight Julia Augusta as well as Mountain Song.

We have two 3 yr olds in the field, Mountain Song and Beccara Rose and they'll benefit from a very healthy 13lb weight (for age) allowance in this open handicap and the former has already scored over today's trip, as have Julia Augusta, Don't Tell Claire, featured runner Belhaven and Sly Madam. Don't Tell Claire is our only previous Ascot winner, courtesy of a class, course and distance victory twenty months ago.

Most of the field have an outing this season already, but Perfect Thunder, One Morning and Julia Augusta might well need this run, as they come off breaks of 202, 234 and 302 days respectively.

A look at Instant Expert then adds to the stats above by highlighting that feature horse Belhaven is one of just three to have won on soft or heavy ground and that she and the afore-mentioned Don't Tell Claire are our only Class 2 winners on display...

...whilst many of their rivals lack previous experience under these prevailing conditions, but a quick look at the place stats does at least add a bit more colour...

...with Don't Tell Claire Belhaven and Perfect Thunder probably of most interest.

Over a straight mile, you'd be forgiven for thinking that the draw wouldn't have much effect and although the following is based on a fairly small sample size...

...the lower half of the draw has really struggled in similar past contests, as shown here in the stall-by-stall data...

...and this gives some advantage to those drawn 7 or higher here. This draw bias is probably stronger than any perceived pace bias, but the small number of leaders have won more than their fair share of races...

The effect of the draw is probably better highlighted by the pace/draw heat map...

...so as long as One Morning, Perfect Thunder, Mottisfont, Belhaven and Sly Madam aren't hold-up horses, their chances of success should be enhanced by the draw. So, let's look at how they've approached their most recent races...

Belhaven may have a average pace score of 2.25, but she did lead last time out and a similar approach puts her right in the mix here. Don't tell Claire is hampered by both draw and running style and the pace here is likely to be down the centre wit the in-form Mountain Song.

Summary

We started with Belhaven and we're going to finish with her. I think she's good enough to win this race, but probably won't. She's 2 from 3 and 4 from 7, but a 7lb rise for her LTO win takes her mark to a career high 87, some 20lbs higher than her win seven races ago last May. She's also up in class here, so I think this might be just too much for her.

That said, most firms are paying four places and I think that she's good for a place. 13/2 is a bit short for me as an E/W bet, but it might work for you. As for the winner, I think I fancy Mountain Song to defy class and weight rises because she might well be afforded a soft lead and 4/1 seems a fair price.



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