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Stat of the Day, 8th September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

6.00 Musselburgh : Zeshov @ 11/4 BOG WON at 6/4 (Raced wide tracked leaders, led approaching 2f out, ridden and ran on)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG  

In the 11-runner, Class 2 Lavazza Stakes (Heritage Handicap) for 3yo over 1m4f on Good ground, worth £62250 to the winner...

Why?

Going to keep this one relatively simple with this in-form 3 yr old who has 3 wins and 2 places from 6 runs this year, including wins at both 1m4f and 1m6f, ensuring stamina shouldn't be an issue today.

He has also won at this grade (LTO 14 days ago) and he has 2 wins and 2 places from the four occasions that William Buick has been in the saddle.

His trainer Charlie Appleby is bang amongst the winners again with a 4 from 8 record over the last fortnight, from which Mr Buick is 4 from 7, whilst over the last three seasons, the Appleby string are 17 from 100 (17% SR) for 37.6pts (+37.6% ROI) profit here at Ascot, from which...

  • William Buick is 12/62 (19.4%) for 36.7pts (+59.2%)
  • at Class 2 : 5/38 (13.2%) for 40.8pts (+107.3%)
  • over 1m4f course and distance : 4/19 (21.1%) for 26.9pts (+141.8%)

And finally, I think it's worth noting that Charlie Appleby's LTO winners running at Class 1/2 over 8.5 to 13.5 furlongs are 24 from 94 (25.5% SR) for 49.2pts (+52.3% ROI), including...

  • 3 yr olds at 12/45 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+116.2%)
  • under William Buick : 12/43 (27.9%) for 38.1pts (+88.6%)
  • at Class 2 : 12/38 (31.6%) for 19.4pts (+51.1%)
  • in 3 yo only races : 7/32 (21.9%) for 29.1pts (+90.9%)
  • after a break of less than 3 weeks : 10/25 (40%) for 27.7pts (+110.8%)
  • and here at Ascot : 3/12 (25%) for 12.4pts (+103.4%)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Ghostwatch @ 5/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair, BetStars, BetVictor & Paddy Power as of 7.20pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 23

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £163.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,080.30 (8 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 5 unplaced)

2015: £4,385.10 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £38.40 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £844.90 (6 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £508.40 (6 favourites: 4 winners & 2 unplaced)

2011: £262.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,140.44

45 favourites - 12 winners - 12 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 85.5% units went through – 11/8* - 10/1 – 3/1

Race 2: 22.9% of the remaining units when through – 25/1 – 25/1 – 6/1 – 20/1 (3/1)

Race 3: 24.9% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 20/1 – 25/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 74.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 – 7/1 – 2/1*

Race 5: 20.3% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 15/2 – 33/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 60.5% of the units secured the dividend – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

 

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 9 (Beyond Reason) & 7 (San Donato)

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Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Crystal Spirit) & 4 (Idaho)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Mutawaffer), 19 (Sabre) & 6 (Jungle Inthebungle)

Leg 4 (4.20): 7 (Merchant Navy), 9 (Redkirk Warrior) & 4 (Harry Angel)

Leg 5 (5.00): 18 (Gilgamesh), 28 (Ultimate Avenue), 6 (Ice Age) & 7 (Dreamfield)

Leg 6 (5.35): 11 (Thomas Mullins), 12 (Count Octave) & 8 (Pallasator)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Sometimes the truth has to be told and this first race on the card sums up what I consider to be a relatively poor day of racing on Saturday.  Seven meetings have ‘watered down’ the sport on offer and respectfully, one of the old ‘Ascot Heath’ cards on the Saturday of the meetings in times gone by offered more competitive racing than might be on show today.  The ITV media team will try and have yours truly up in court I’ll wager, though I will let you be the judge once today’s racing is over. Upwards and onward by nominating BEYOND REASON and SAN DONATO against Mark Johnston’s warm favourite Natalies Joy in the opening event.  The first named Charlie Appleby raider looks sure to be there or thereabouts as the furlong pole is reached, whilst Roger Varian was waxing lyrical about his Lope De Vega colt well before his Yarmouth debut when he was sent off as favourite to beat what turned out to be an impressive John Gosden runner who will also go on to better things.

Favourite factor: 14 of the last 19 contests have been won by horses starting at odds of 7/1 or less, with eight winning favourites (of one description or another) having scored since the turn of the Millennium.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has saddled six of the last twelve winners of the ‘Hardwick’ and with four-year-olds having won the last ten contests, Michael's raider CRYSTAL SPIRIT is taken to atone for last season’s beaten stable companion Dartmouth.  Michael’s recent ratio stands at 6/17, stats which have produced 23 points of level stake profit, notwithstanding five placed horses during the period, which included those sent off at 14/1 (twice) and 10/1. Last year’s winner IDAHO is taken to offer most resistance to the selection.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have obliged during the last 19 years, whilst 12 of the last 21 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

 

3.40: Last year’s 13/8 favourite finished stone last of the 22 runners, albeit Ryan more put the brakes on when all chance of winning had gone some way from home. Favourite backers will be hoping for a better run for their collective monies this time around (should not prove difficult), though which horse will be sent off as the market leader on this occasion is open to debate.  Whichever way the wind blows in the betting ring this afternoon, my trio against the field from a Placepot angle consists of MUTAWAFFER. SABRE and JUNGLE INTHEBUNGLE, though I wouldn’t have a bet from a win perspective with your money.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last 21 years, whilst ten of the twenty market leaders (favourite was withdrawn shortly before the start in 1999) claimed Placepot positions.

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years:

5 winners—7 placed—34 unplaced

Starting price stats in the last 14 years:

3/1 or less: 3 winners—-2 placed—-4 unplaced

Horses ranging between 7/2 & 15/2: 3 winners--5 placed—36 unplaced

8/1 or more: 9 winners—-22 placed-—220 unplaced

 

4.20: Given that so many of the players meet each other on a regular basis, MERCHANT NAVY and REDKIRK WARRIOR have to be of interest if we are trying to avoid working out with one of the graded race greyhounds is going to deliver today.  We know that HARRY ANGEL has plenty of ability but having as much media coverage as Neymar is the World Cup of late, he is still not a cast iron type that I want to be pinning my hopes on, albeit his Placepot chance is there for all to see.  I’ve yet to get The Tin Man right and I doubt today will be any different. When I back the six-year-old he decides to down tools and vice versa.  Speculative investors might want an each way saver on Sir Dancealot who looks overpriced at 50/1 with three firms at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: 18 of the last 21 favourites have been beaten, whilst 12 of the last 22 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  No matter how ‘media types’ hype this race up, the record of favourites proves it to be a contest to avoid in terms of serious punting.

 

5.00: Four-year-olds represent a vintage that have snared seven victories in this contest in the last twenty years, whilst five-year-olds have won ten times during the last twenty renewals of the ‘Wokingham‘.  Ten of the last eleven winners have carried weights of 9-3 or less, as have 26 of the last 44 horses to have finished in the frame.  Placepot offering via the stats: GILGAMESH, ULTIMATE AVENUE and ICE AGE.  Reserve nominations: DREAMFIELD and SILENT ECHO.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last twenty three market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful favourites.

 

5.35: This remains the longest race on the flat calendar, just ten yards further than a race contested at Pontefract!  The obvious place to start is with THOMAS HOBSON who finished second in this event last year having won the Ascot Stakes earlier in the week. Willie Mullins did not have the resort to running the horse twice this week, having secured four of the first five places in the marathon event on Tuesday this year, including the 9/1 winner.  Andrew Balding usually offers an each way type in the last race of the week and COUNT OCTAVE with attract plenty of win and place interest I’ll wager.  It’s pretty much impossible to ignore Gordon Elliot’s only runner here this week, namely PALLASATOR.

Favourite factor: Five of the last eighteen favourites have prevailed, with another six market leaders finishing in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 22

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £49.40 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £1,251.10 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £139.40 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £84.20 (7 favourites: No winners - 4 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £195.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £257.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £2,568.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £649.28 

45 favourites - 13 winners - 12 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 42.9% units went through – 20/1 – 2/1* - 20/1

Race 2: 62.5% of the remaining units when through – 6/1 -10/1 – 9/4*

Race 3: 96.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/6* - 11/4 – 9/2

Race 4: 83.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/9* & 12/1

Race 5: 24.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (5/1)

Race 6: 27.9% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 13/2 – 14/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 10 (Main Edition), 1 (Angel’s Hideaway) & 8 (Just Wonderful)

Leg 2 (3.05): 3 (Old Persian), 6 (Elector) & 5 (Highbrow)

Leg 3 (3.40): 15 (Sioux Nation), 11 (Invisible Army) & 20 (Heartache)

Leg 4 (4.20): 3 (Alpha Centauri) & 12 (Veracious)

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Leg 5 (5.00): 16 (Desert Diamond), 15 (Ceilidh’s Dream & 17 (Agrotera)

Leg 6 (5.35): 5 (Appeared), 4 (Walton Street) & 15 (Eynhallow)

Suggested stake: 486 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Mark Johnston snared the last race on Thursday and MAIN EDITION is my idea of the likeliest winner of the opening contest today, especially with the trainer having booked James Doyle to ride the Zoffany filly.  The combination boast a 5/15 ratio this season and coming into this event having won both of her races in impressive style to date, MAIN EDITION is the first name on the team sheet.  Others to consider include ANGEL’S HIDEAWAY (looks a tad big at 16/1 with Unibet for a ‘Frankie’ contender) and JUST WONDERFUL who appears to be the pick of the O’Brien pair at the top of the market.

Favourite factor: Twelve favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last sixteen renewals, statistics which include four winners.

 

3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won this race twice in the last five year and there will be worse outsiders on the card today than his Dansili colt ELECTOR I’ll wager.  Zaaki ran well at a big price yesterday (as I anticipated) and ELECTOR could follow suit in what could arguably be called a slight sub-standard renewal of the ‘Edward VII’ this afternoon.  Talking of outsiders, I would not readily dismiss the chance of HIGHBROW at 25’s either, albeit a more logical winner to consider is OLD PERSIAN from my viewpoint. 7/1 about Rostropoich might be worth consideration from a win perspective, but Aidan’s raider will not offer value for money from a Placepot angle according to the gospel of yours truly.  I took that view about Order Of St George yesterday which proved to be the right route to take having landed the forecast in the Gold Cup.

Favourite factor: This is the best race for favourite backers throughout the five days, with nine of the last twenty one market leaders having prevailed, a top priced winner of 12/1 being recorded during the study period.  Five of the other twelve market leaders finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Elector (soft)

 

3.40: Being a self-confessed 'trend anorak', I have come out in a nasty rash with only three contests to work from.  Last year’s ‘Queen Mary’ winner HEARTACHE is the ‘dark horse’ in the field and having rattled home here under fast conditions twelve months ago, I prepared to gamble that she will manage the sixth furlong well enough to potentially secure a Placepot position at around the 20/1 mark. INVISIBLE ARMY strikes me as a more logical winner over this trip however, with connections possibly having most to fear from SIOUX NATION. Conditions look set to suit Aidan O’Brien’s latter named raider which might just tip the scales in his favour.  Main Desire is another win and place option for speculative readers to consider.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 favourite finished nearer last than first before the last two successful (7/4 & 5/6) favourites made amends on behalf of the majority of punters.

Record of the four course winners in the Commonwealth Cup:

1/1—Invincible Army (soft)

1/1—Sioux Nation (good to firm)

1/1—Speak In Colours (soft)

1/1—Heartache (good to firm)

 

4.20: ALPHA CENTUARI was the beaten 2/1 favourite when going under by a neck in last year’s ‘Albany’ here at the royal meeting.  Jessica Harrington’s Mastercraftsman filly is one of three Guineas winners in the line up this time around and I have a sneaking feeling that she will come out on top today.  The other classic heroines of late are passed over in favour of Sir Michael Stoute’s Frankel filly VERACIOUS whose mum Infallible finished second in this event to Lush Lashes ten years ago.  I’m content to let this pair do the talking for me in the most open ‘Coronation’ for quite a while, on paper at least.

Favourite factor: The biggest priced winner during the last sixteen renewals was the 12/1 chance that scored in 2012, during which time nine market leaders have won, albeit those figures include four joint favourites.  Fourteen of the last 26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

 

5.00: High numbers in the draw appear to have the edge this week (as is usually the case in all honesty) up the straight mile course whereby the chance for DESERT DIAMOND (drawn) 19/23 is very much respected.  Connections of AGROTERA (5) have not been so fortunate but Jamie Spencer knows the time of day at this venue and will be plotting his own route at breakfast, if he allowed such a luxury this morning!  Others to consider include Ralph Beckett’s pair from my viewpoint, namely CEILIDH’S DREAM (22) and DE FIDE (3) who are listed in order of preference but once again, mainly because of their relevant stall positions.

Favourite factor:  Five clear, one joint and one co favourite have obliged of late, whilst 16 of the 25 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Sandringham Stakes (Handicap): 

1/1—Dathanna (soft)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last thirteen contests, with five-year-olds claiming the other four renewals.  Indeed, five-year-olds have secured the last two tricast positions and taking all the facts and stats into consideration, the trio of APPEARED, WALTON STREET AND EYNHALLOW is listed in marginal order of preference.  APPEARED has to overcome a break of ten months from the track, though I cannot overlook the fact that Roger Varian’s raider runs off a two pound higher mark than when finishing second in the event twelve months ago behind one of my short listed selections who won at 20/1 before picking up a Listed prize next time out.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Sir Cheuvelin who looks ridiculously priced at 66/1 in a place at the time of writing.  The chance of Count Calabash is not discounted either from the other end of the market.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 22 favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders.

Record of the three course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Appeared (good to firm)

1/4—Manjaam (good to firm)

1/1—Count Calabash (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 21st June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 21

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £447.30 (7 favourites: No winners – 4 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £298.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2015: £122.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £1,376.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £63.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

2012: £1,505.80 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2011: £209.20 (7 favourites: 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £574.63

46 favourites - 12 winners - 14 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 25.3% units went through – 14/1 – 13/2** - 8/1 (13/2**)

Race 2: 66.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2 & 10/3*

Race 3: 50.7% of the remaining units went through – 9/1 – 2/1* - 6/1

Race 4: 79.1% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 5/6* - 33/1

Race 5: 8.8% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 – 25/1 (11/2)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 7/1 – 8/1 – 20/1 – 14/1 (4/1)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 8 (The Paddocks), 10 (Shang Shang Shang) & 7 (Rumble Inthejungle)

Leg 2 (3.05): 15 (Wadilsafa), 5 (Key Victory) & 16 (Zaaki)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Sun Maiden), 6 (Magic Wand) & 4 (Highgarden)

Leg 4 (4.20): 9 (Stradivarius) & 6 (Vazirabad)

Leg 5 (5.00): 8 (James Cook), 16 (Curiosity), 24 (Sam Gold) & 12 (Moqarrar)

Leg 6 (5.35): 4 (Comminique) & 16 (Corgi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Two outsiders grab my attention first and foremost this year, namely THE PADDOCKS (16/1) and RUMBLE INTHEJUGLE (14/1) who both look overpriced in what might prove to be a sub-standard renewal of the Norfolk Stakes.  Richard Hannon was waxing lyrical about his first named raider back in the spring and unlike a lot of his two-year-old stable companions, THE PADDOCKS did not need a ‘prep run’ before scoring at Newbury at the first time of asking.  SHANG SHANG SHANG was reportedly the pick of Wesley Ward’s juvenile representatives before the week began and 4/1 about the projected favourite is now available. I can understand punters latching onto that price, which is in the offing given the disappointing performances of fellow inmates this week.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 23 favourites during the last 20 years claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include just four winners.  However, 11 of the last 18 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science - statistics include four winners and five market leaders which finished second).

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3.05: Sir Michael Stoute has won two of the last seven renewals is which the yard has been represented and with Michael’s last four runners all having won, the 16/1 quotes by Paddy Power, Betfair and BetVictor about stable contender ZAAKI might not last long this morning.  More logical winners include the likes of WADILSAFA and KEY VICTORY from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites has won via eighteen renewals, though the first market leader was withdrawn before a new market was able to be formed back in 2000.  All the other market leaders (bar two--aside from the winners) have finished out with the washing.

Record of the course winner in the ‘Hampton Court’:

1/1—Fahjjaj (good to soft)

 

3.40: Irish trainers have snared five of the last seven renewals of the 'Ribblesdale' and MAGIC WAND would appear to have as a good a chance as any this time around.  SUN MAIDEN looks a typical Sir Michael Soute raider and having won with all three runners on Wednesday (233/1 treble), SUN MAIDEN looks sure to attract support. HIGHGARDEN might reward each way/Placepot investors at 20/1 in a place this morning if that is the way you want to play the race.  Wild Illiusion will be a popular order and though I rarely desert Charlie Appleby runners in this type of event (particularly from a Placepot angle), I’m not at all sure that the projected favourite offers value for money.

Favourite factor: Just three clear winning favourites has been recorded since 1998, ’recent’ scorers having also been recorded at 25/1—22/1—14/1—12/1—10/1--10/1 & 9/1.  That said, 16 of the 23 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

 

4.20: Aidan O’Brien has saddled seven of the last twelve winners of the Gold Cup whilst on two of the other five occasions, an 8/1 chance (Age Of Aquarius) was only beaten by a neck seven years back, before the short head defeat of ORDER OF ST GEORGE twelve months ago.  Aidan’s warrior had won the previous renewals and looks sure to run his race but on this ground, STRADIVARIUS is preferred, even though John Gosden’s young pretender only receives 16 ounces from Ryan Moore’s mount.  Official ratings suggest that the dethroned king will have his day in the sun again, though I’m not so sure.  If softer ground has been in place, VAZIRABAD would have to have been taking very seriously, given that the French raider has won fifteen of his last twenty races.  Even as things stand, layers have got a half decent chance of getting the front two beaten which is all that will be on their minds over breakfast/brunch this morning.

Favourite factor: Thirteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twenty one years, statistics which include nine winning favourites during the study period.

Record of the five course winners in the 'Gold Cup':

2/4—Order Of St George (2 x soft)

1/7—Sheikhzayedroad (good)

1/4—Torcedor (soft)

1/3—Mount Moriah (good)

1/2—Stradivarius (good to firm)

 

5.00: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Britannia’ have carried weights of 8-9 or more, though unfortunately, no horses are eliminated on that count on this occasion.  The draw for this event is not as conclusive compared to the Royal Hunt Cup (which proved valuable again yesterday), whereby I am taking four horses across the width of the stalls against the field on this occasion, namely JAMES COOK (25 – my each way play in the race), CURISOITY (33), SAM GOLD (11) and MOQARRAR (1).  FIRST CONTACT and CORROSIVE are the nominated reserve selections.

Favourite factor: The record of favourites in this event is plenty good enough given the competitive nature of the contest on an annual basis. Four clear market leaders have prevailed in the last 21 years, alongside a joint market leader back in 1999.  That said, ‘only’ nine of the twenty five favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Draw stats – most recent result listed first followed by SP details:

3-1-7-27 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-16/1-14/1-25/1

12-18-23-30 (28 ran-good to soft) – 13/2-20/1-12/1-66/1

11-3-31-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 10/1-14/1-28/1-33/1

26-20-12-30 (30 ran-good to firm) – 14/1-25/1-8/1-7/1*)

15-12-24-30 (27 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-33-1/16-17/2*

6-7-17-3 (29 ran-good to soft) – 6/1*-50/1-20/1-40/1

23-15-18-30 (29 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-20/1-100/1-10/1

6-31-29-23 (27 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-33/1-40/1-33/1

18-20-3-4 (30 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-22/1-16/1-20/1

30-12-4-27 (28 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-20/1-12/1-33/1

2-29-16-11 (30 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-16/1-33/1-4/1*

Horses draw 15 or lower: 7 wins & 14 places – Higher: 4 wins & 19 places

Average price of the winner: 11/1 – Average prices of placed horses: 16/1

Horses drawn higher tend to produce more ‘masses’ in terms of potential forecasts/tricasts as was the case yesterday in the Royal Hunt Cup whereby the same advice applies.

Record of the three course winners in the Brittania Handicap:

1/1—Rufus King (good)

1/1—Curiosity (good)

1/1—Corrosive (good to firm)

 

5.35: Mark Johnston has saddled the winner of four of the last fifteen contests and with fourteen of the last fifteen winners have carried weights of 9-1 or less, stable contender COMMUNIQUE is the first name on my team sheet. Any number of horses could be described as dangers, with CORGI, HE’S AMAZING and DOWNDRAFT being ‘short listed’.

Favourite factor: 13 of the 25 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last 18 years (four winners).

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 21st June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Tropics @ 4/1 BOG 10th at 3/1 (Unruly in stalls, fly leapt start and lost all chance, always in rear)

Next up is Thursday's...

3.40 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOG

A 10-runner, Group 2 Fillies Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £113420 to the winner...

Why?

With the obvious caveat about the ground maybe not suiting her (she'd probably be a fair shorter than 11/4 on softer), it's hard for me to look beyond this likeable, classy filly. She's already a Group 1 winner via last season's Prix Marcel Boussac and with two creditable runs in defeat at that level this season, she brings the best form to the table today.

That form was a decent fourth in the 1,000 Guineas before finishing as runner-up in the recent Oaks beating two of today's rivals in the process. William Buick is in the saddle and he's in great form right now, including winning twice at this festival already this week : one of which was for trainer Charlie Appleby and it's their relationship that I'm going to look at here.

I'm keeping it simple today, but the Appleby / Buick / Class 1 axis stands at 21 winners from 124 (16.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+12.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2016, so they're a fairly safe long-term bet. With respect to today's contest, those 124 runners are...

  • 19/100 (19%) for 31.9pts (+31.9%) after a top 4 finish LTO
  • 15/70 (21.4%) for 3.6pts (+5.1%) at odds of 5/4 to 6/1 (so they win plenty but get overbet)
  • 11/64 (17.2%) for 18.2pts (+28.4%) when tilting for prizes in excess of £40k
  • 10/60 (16.6%) for 12.8pts (+21.3%) when racing 11-30 days since their last run
  • 11/50 (22%) for 31.9pts (+63.8%) at the age of 3
  • 5/29 (17.2%) for 27.9pts (+96.2%) in June
  • 5/23 (21.7%) for 15.4pts (+67.1%) here at Ascot
  • and 6/16 (37.5%) for 17.2pts (+107.4%) after running in a Group 1 race last time out.

And to be honest with you, those numbers allied to her form/ability is enough to convince me to part with my usual stake, but I can add another layer of data for reassurance via the fact that her "daddy" is the mighty Dubawi...

..and Dubawi offspring racing at Class 1 on the Flat over this 1m4f trip are 19/86 (22.1% SR) for 28.6pts (+33.3% ROI), from which...

  • those with a top 3 finish LTO are 16/58 (27.6%) for 40.9pts (+70.5%)
  • competing for £50k+ : 10/53 (18.9%) for 14.1pts (+26.6%)
  • in June : 6/28 (21.4%) for 11.2pts (+40%)
  • at Ascot : 5/24 (20.8%) for 20.5pts (+85.5%)
  • at Group 2 : 6/18 (33.3%) for 27.3pts (+151.6%)
  • 11-20 days since last run : 5/18 (27.8%) for 20.04pts (+111.3%)
  • and here at Royal Ascot : 2/7 (28.6%) for 17.96pts (+256.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wild Illusion @ 11/4 BOGwhich was widely available at 4.55pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 20th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 20

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £156.90 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £165.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2015: £301.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2014: £86.70 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2013: £5,559.90 (8 favourites: 1 winner & 7 unplaced)

2012: £1,326.50 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £393.10 (7 favourites: No winners - 5 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,141.39

46 favourites - 14 winners - 10 placed - 22 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 39.5% units went through – 2/1* - 66/1 – 20/1

Race 2: 84.2% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 – 10/11* - 14/1

Race 3: 71.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/2* - 40/1 – 11/4

Race 4: 59.6% of the remaining units went through – 9/4 – 10/1 – 9/2 (2/1)

Race 5: 10.2% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1 (13/2)

Race 6: 31.8% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1 – 7/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (6/1)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 17 (Shades Of Blue) & 1 (Chelsea Cloisters)

Leg 2 (3.05): 11 (Stream Of Stars) & 5 (Kew Gardens)

Leg 3 (3.40): 1 (Hydrangea) & 4 (Arabian Moon)

Leg 4 (4.20): 2 (Cracksman) & 6 (Poet’s Word)

Leg 5 (5.00): 32 (Seniority), 21 (Settle For Bay), 18 (Cape Byron), 24 (Medahim) & 26 (Mukalal)

Leg 6 (5.35): 15 (Society Power), 17 (Symbolization) 14 (Purser) & 18 (Tabdeed)

Suggested stake: 320 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30: Clive Cox denied Wesley Ward securing a hat trick in this event twelve months ago and the two trainers could be locked in a dual up front via their respective individuals this year, namely SHADES OF BLUE and CHELSEA CLOISTERS.  The exchanges are offering 10/1 bar the two at the time of writing, though punters with burned fingers are still queuing up at the casualty department of the nearest hospital yesterday after the demise of the leading contenders in the opening race of the meeting.  I doubt that this pair will finish out of the frame however, offering up KURIOUS as the each way call whose sire won group races in Australia over sprint trips from the phenomenal Exceed And Excel line of thoroughbreds.

Favourite factor:  Seven clear favourites and two joint market leaders have won during the last 21 renewals, whilst 16 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions during the period.

 

3.05: Although both trainers have other runners in the race, John Gosden (STREAM OF STARS) and Aidan O’Brien (KEW GARDENS) look set to lock horns at the business end of the contest with their respective raiders.  John won with this year’s Gold Cup hope Stradivarius twelve months ago and I’m just siding with his inmate this time around, albeit Aidan is looking for his fifth victory in the race during the last nine years.  LYNWOOD GOLD could give each way investors a decent run for their collective monies, with Mark Johnston also boasting a good record in the contest down the years.  Only Sir Henry Cecil can beat Mark’s tally of seven winners in the Queen’s Vase, with maestro having gone one better during his wonderful career.

Favourite factor: 12 of the last 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions of late, statistics which include seven winners.  19 of the last 21 winners of the Queens Vase were returned at odds of 7/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the 'Queen’s Vase': 

1/1—Stream Of Stars (good to firm)

 

3.40: Four-year-olds have a good record in this event, boasting 29 horses that have claimed Placepot positions from the 42 available places to date, statistics which includes twelve of the fourteen winners. Indeed, four-year-olds have won the last nine renewals of this contest and I fully expect the likes of HYDRANGEA and ARABIAN HOPE to represent the vintage to good effect for their famous connections.  Third spot could go to Urban Fox at around the 10/1 mark from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Ten of the sixteen market leaders have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the two course winners in the 'Duke of Cambridge': 

1/2—Hydrangea (soft)

1/3—Urban Fox (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four and five-year-olds have won 16 of the 17 renewals of this Group 1 Prince Of Wales’s Stakes event since the turn of the Millennium and the trend will be extended this year as Desert Encounter (the only other runner outside of the relevant horses) surely has little chance of prevailing. John Gosden enjoyed a sparkling day yesterday but he will be looking for compensation for the defeat of inmate Jack Hobbs in this event twelve months ago.  The 2/1 favourite folded like the proverbial pack of cards that day, though stable representative Cracksman will be more like a 4/7 chance today with ‘Frankie’ boasting definite claims of extending his lead as top jockey at the meeting after his treble yesterday.  Dettori has now ridden 59 Royal Ascot winners, scoring at least once in 23 years of his glittering career.  Surely only POET’S WORD can be given a chance against the Gosden/Dettori bandwagon.

Favourite factor:  Seven of the last 21 favourites have won, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders have reached the frame.

Record of the three course winners in the feature race on the card: 

1/1—Cracksman (soft)

13—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

1/1—Hawkbill (soft)

 

5.00: 15 of the last 20 winners of the Royal Hunt Cup have carried weights of 9-1 or less whilst four-year-olds have won seven of the last eleven contests.  Five-year-olds have won three of the other five renewals since 2005.  Six of the first eight horses home four years were drawn 22 or higher in a 28 strong field on fast ground, whilst the other two places were filled by runners emerging from stall numbers 14 & 16.  Last year’s 25/1 winner Zhui Feng was the second horse mentioned in despatches but Amanada Perrett’s raider runs from trap two this time around. Pat Dobbs is sure to take them along at a decent clip on the far side, though preference is for the draw/vintage/weight trends to pay dividends again via the likes of SENIORITY (drawn 30), SETTLE FOR BAY (22), CAPE BYRON (25) and MEDAHIM (28).  The reserve nominations are MUKALAL (32) and KYNREN (11).

Favourite factor:  Only five of the last 24 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner--nine years ago).

Record of the four course winners in the Royal Hunt Cup: 

1/5—Zhul Feng (good to firm)

1/1—Cape Byron (soft)

2/5—Raising Sand (good & Good to soft)

1/1—Bless Him (good to firm)

Draw statistics for the last eleven renewals of the race (most recent result listed first) + SP details:

26-22-18-11 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1 – 16/1 – 66/1 – 20/1

4-26-20-10 (28 ran-soft) – 10/1-8/1-14/1-20/1

11-19-10-21 (30 ran-good to soft) – 8/1-9/1-16/1-25/1

33-14-23-29 (28 ran-good to firm) – 20/1-14/1-33/1-14/1

6-2-10-7 (28 ran-good to firm) – 33/1-40/1-50/1-25/1

33-18-21-13 (30 ran-good) – 16/1-33/1-50/1-66/1

24-30-25-14 (28 ran-good) – 12/1-7/1*-20/1-33/1

11-12-2-5 (29 ran-good to firm) – 28/1-12/1-12/1-12/1

33-29-30-13 (25 ran-good to firm) – 4/1*-25/1-9/1-16/1

27-30-26-25 (29 ran-good to firm) – 25/1-10/1-25/1-33/1

17-12-27-1 (26 ran-good to firm) – 9/1-16/1-50/1-17/2

The average priced winner during this study period: 13/1

Average priced placed horse: 18/1

Draw conclusions:

Horses drawn 1-15: 4 winners – 15 placed

Horses drawn 16+: 7 winners – 19 placed

If you fancy playing the forecast/Tricast wagers, it might prove best to perm high numbered horses looking at recent results, irrespective of the form lines!

On good to firm ground in 2009 & 2008 respectively, these odds were realised:

Exacta forecasts: 159/1 & 303/1.  In 2009, the Tricast paid 366/1 despite the favourite winning, whilst the Trifecta in 2008 paid 6,119/1.  Those were the figures I offered last year before the Exacta forecast paid £559.90 on fast ground twelve months ago, the first two horses home having emerged from stalls 16 & 22.

 

5.35: 28 of the last 42 available Placepot positions (67%) have been claimed by horses in single odds figures, despite the fact that favourites had a poor recent record in the contest before the 2013 market leader prevailed.  11 of the last 15 winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-1, though three of the last four results have bucked that trend. Upwards and onward in positive mode as much as is humanly possible in another daunting renewal of the Jersey Stakes.  Surprisingly perhaps, I looked at this race first, which suggests just how difficult the contest could be, even from a Placepot perspective with just three places up for grabs. My pin has fallen on the quartet of SOCIETY POWER, SYMBOLIZATION, PURSER and TABDEED.

Favourite factor:  The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten before the 9/2 market leader obliged in 2013.  Things seemed to have taken a turn for the better as the two 9/2 joint favourites four years ago filled the forecast positions before results returned to negative type in each of the following two years before the 2/1 marker leader prevailed twelve months ago. Ten of the relevant market leaders claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale (Jersey Stakes): 

1/1—Mukalal (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 19th June

ROYAL ASCOT – JUNE 19

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends for the last seven years on Day One:

2017: £585.60 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

2016: £1,219.40 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2015: £174.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2014: £200.20 (7 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £564.20 (6 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £872.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

2011: £40.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £522.47

45 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed 20 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 78.0% units went through – 11/10* - 5/1 – 12/1

Race 2: 20.9% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 33/1 – 8/1 (4/1)

Race 3: 59.5% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 14/1 – 11/4*

Race 4: 25.7% of the remaining units went through – 5/2 – 12/1 – 6/1 (1/2*)

Race 5: 51.9% of the remaining units went through – 4/1* - 10/1 – 5/1 – 12/1

Race 6: 9.6% of the units secured the dividend – 16/1 – 12/1 – 25/1 (13/8)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Royal Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.30): 15 (Rhododendron) & 3 (Benbati)

Leg 2 (3.05): 20 (Swergai Prokofiev), 7 (Calyx) & 23 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 3 (3.40): 10 (Lady Aurelia) & 2 (Blue Point)

Leg 4 (4.20): 8 (U S Navy Flag), 9 (Without Parole) & 10 (Wooton)

Leg 5 (5.00): 7 (Chelkar), 20 (Coeur De Lion), 1 (Whiskey Sour) & 11 (Look My Way)

Leg 6 (5.35): 9 (Laaraib), 13 (Sharja Bridge) & 15 (Yucatan)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.30:  Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of this opening Queen Anne Stakes, stats which support the chances of RHODODRENDON and BENBATI, horses that possess other firm trends in their favour.  Newbury’s Lockinge Stakes in very much the best stepping stone for this event and RHODODENDRON won the event this year with Aiden O’Brien’s raider returning to the type of form he showed of old.  It’s worth noting that Aidan’s two winners during the last decade ran in the ‘Lockinge’ in their previous races, albeit without winning their respective contests.  No trainer has saddled more ‘Queen Anne’ winners that Saeed Bin Suroor (seven in total) whereby we know that BENBATI has been laid out for the contest for some considerable time.  With Saeed having saddled his last winner in the race back in 2007, few people would deny the original ‘blue trainer’ another victory.  A far as jockeys are concerned, we have to focus on Ryan Moore (RHODODENDRON) whose record since 2013 stands at 45% in terms of his mounts finishing in the first three, 21% of which were winners! Indeed, Ryan set a post war record in 2015 by riding nine winners at the meeting. Recoletros is the nomination for the overnight reserve, whilst the pick of the big outsiders could prove to be Beat The Bank who although trounced by Aidan’s projected favourite in the Lockinge has, at least, got race fitness back on his side this time around.  That said, the last ten winners have all emerged from the front three in the market.  Frankie Dettori would have been trying to take the outright lead in the ‘jockey stakes’ in the race but for missing out on a ride, having the same number of winners (six in total) as Sir Gordon Richards.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored in the last twenty one years, whilst eleven market leaders claimed Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the five course winners in the Queen Anne Stakes:

1/4—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

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1/2—Benbati (good to firm)

1/3—Century Dream (soft)

1/3—Limato (goot to firm)

1/2—Lord Glitters (soft)

 

3.05: Aidan O’Brien has won eight of the last 22 renewals of the Coventry Stakes and Aidan saddles two runners this time around, the pick of which looks to be his Scat Daddy colt SERGAI PORKOFIEV. That said, THE IRISH ROVER won at the Lockinge meeting at Newbury is taking style suggesting that Aidan’s ‘second string’ is no forlorn hope, especially from a Placepot perspective.  No trainer has even equalled Aiden’s record in the race, let alone beaten his record.  A victory for John Gosden’s Kingman raider CALYX would put a smile on the trainer’s face, the sire having only been beaten (half a length) in the 2014 renewal of the 2000 Guineas in eight races during his wonderful career.  Speculative investors could do worse than have a small each way nibble with Advertise.  That said, eight of the last ten winners have emerged from the front three in the market.

Favourite factor: Seven clear favourites and three joint market leaders have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the 24 market leaders claimed toteplacepot positions in the process.  

Record of the two course winners in the Coventry Stakes:

1/1—Blown By Wind (good to firm)

1/1—Getchagetchagetcha (good to soft)

'First three in the betting’ in the last 15 years: 

11 winners—9 placed—25 unplaced.

'Starting prices stats in the last 15 years: 

7/1 or less: 12 winners—-10 placed—-31 unplaced

15/2 or more: 3 winners—-20 placed-—181 unplaced

28/1 or more: No winners-—6 placed—-87 unplaced

Foaling stats in the last 15 years:

January: 1 winner & 7 places

February: 6 winners & 7 places

March: 5 winners & 9 places

April: 3 winners & 5 places

May: No winners & 2 places

 

3.40: Nine of the last fifteen renewals have been won by ‘overseas’ raiders and I find it difficult to pretend that I have enthused over foreign victories at Ascot over these last few years as John McCririck and others have done.  I find Royal Ascot a difficult enough place to back winners without unknown form lines to sift through.  Each to his own of course but from a punter’s perspective, I expected better of ‘Big Mac’ who has so often boasted of being the punter‘s best pal.  Then again, the man is all about selling himself on the bigger stage, so it works for him I guess.  We have been assured by media commentators this this event has long since looked to be a match between LADY AURELIA and BATTAASH, though sprint races in particular have long since had a habit of producing ‘pear shaped’ results.  Both horses have obvious claims via the form book but tell me something; if the form book is the be all and end all of racing, why are there so many bookmakers rubbing their hands with glee this morning?  Indeed, this is the perfect type of race for layers, with punters anxious to get their cash on two horses which ‘couple’ at odds of around 1/2, with twelve other half decent rivals trying to lower their colours!  On the face of things bookmakers can’t lose because if the market leaders fight out the finish, layers have an even money chance of the right one winning for them, with only one placed horse in their books costing them money!  LADY AURELIA (been there and obtained the t-shirt) is my pick of the duo, though hopefully BLUE POINT will make the pair pull out all of the stops close home.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eleven favourites have won, whilst 12 of the last 27 market leaders have secured Placepot positions going back further in time

Record of the five course winners in the Kings Stand Stakes:

2/3—Blue Point (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Gifted Master (good to soft)

1/5—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Lady Aurelia (Good to firm & soft)

1/1—Different League (good to firm)

 

4.20: Let’s get one thing straight to start with.  Media commentators will be waxing lyrical about this event but it takes facts to back up big races and this renewal does not ‘cut the mustard’ I’m afraid.  The last five winners have averaged an official rating of 122, compared to the mark of 109 for Tuesday’s projected market leader.  There is no doubting the potential of John Gosden’s raider WITHOUT PAROLE but that said, his last win was in a Listed event at Sandown whereas last year’s winner was coming off the back off a second placed effort in the Group 1 2000 Guineas. Aidan O’Brien has won seven of the last seventeen renewals of the feature race on day one of the royal meeting (no trainer has saddled more gold medallists in this Group 1 event), whilst it should not be forgotten that his 20/1 representative Zoffany gave Frankel a fright seven years ago.  Aidan saddles US NAVY FLAG who is a dual Group 1 winner, albeit as a juvenile.  There was plenty to like about his second placed effort in the Irish 2000 Guineas the last day, whilst my trio against the remaining seven contenders is completed by WOOTON who will represent decent Placepot value, as is the case for most overseas raiders.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won 12 of the last 19 contests, whilst the biggest priced winner during the last 19 years was an 8/1 chance.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

5.00: Four and five-year-olds towards the top of the weights fit positive trends in this marathon event these days (though the trends have not worked out well these last three years in all honesty), statistics which bring in the likes of four of the five Willie Mullins raiders into the equation, the pick of which arguably include CHELKAR and WHISKEY SOUR. Ten of the last twelve winners have been trained by ‘dual purpose handlers’ whereby COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY additionally enter the overnight mix. Eight of the last ten winners emerged from the top four horses in the betting, whilst last nine of the last 14 winners carried weights ranging between 8-12 and 9-3, burdens which are carried by my two English contenders COEUR DE LION and LOOK MY WAY.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 favourites have claimed Placepot positions during the last nineteen years (three winners).  Although 10 winners during the study period were returned in double figures only two extreme outsiders (given the nature of the contest--25/1 or more) have prevailed.  I suggested in 2007 that the 20/1 winner Full House had a live each way chance, but did not consider the horse as an ‘outsider’ as such given that twenty runners went to post.  I can never agree with pundits who rate 7/1 and 8/1 chance as outsiders, unless they are contesting a three runner race perhaps.  My rule of thumb suggests that outsiders can never be labelled as such unless their odds vastly outnumber the number of runners in a race.  With 20 runners set to face the starter on this occasion, only runners at 22/1 or more are ‘realistic’ outsiders from my perspective. 

Record of course winners on the Ascot Stakes:  

1/6—Hassle (good)

1/1—Sam Missile (good to firm)

 

5.35: Four-year-olds have won 14 of the last 18 renewals of this Class 1 handicap contest (previous contested on the Saturday of the five day meeting) whilst seventeen of those winners carried weights of 9-5 or less during the study period. Putting the stats and facts together, I expect the trends to continue via the likes of LARAAIB, SHARJA BRIDGE and YUCATAN.  That said, Sir Michael Stoute’s raider MIRAGE DANCER only carries 16 ounces over the ‘superior barrier’ whereby Michael might finally take the trainer record from Sir Henry Cecil, the pair each having saddled a staggering 75 winners at the royal meeting.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful clear market leaders and one joint favourite.

Course record of the course winner in the Listed Wolferton Handicap:

1/1—Laraaib (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th May

ASCOT – MAY 12

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years:

2017: £294.10 (7 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

2016: £227.50 (8 favourites: 2 winners & 6 unplaced)

2015: £997.50 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2014: £268.30 (8 favourites: 1 winner-- 3 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2013: £504.70 (6 favourites: 1 winner-- 1 placed-- 4 unplaced)

2012: £99.70 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed-- 3 unplaced)

2011: £453.00 (6 favourites: 2 winners-- 1 placed--3 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £406.40 - 47 favourites - 13 winners - 8 placed - 26 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.15): 4 (Master Singer), 9 (Humble Hero) & 7 (Count Calabash)

Leg 2 (2.50): 3 (Mirage Dancer) & 6 (God Given)

Leg 3 (3.25): 1 (Urban Fox), 7 (Dynamic) & 2 (Queen Of Time)

Leg 4 (4.00): 23 (Pouvoir Magique), 10 (Escobar), 14 (Sabador) & 15 (Kynren)

Leg 5 (4.35): 2 (Dave Dexter) & 4 (Dark Shadow)

Leg 6 (5.10): 5 (Madame Bounty), 10 (Moonraker) & 4 (Red Tycoon)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.15: Four-year-olds have secured 16 of the 20 available Placepot positions via 52% of the total number of runners, statistics which include five of the seven winners at 13/2-5/1-9/2-13/8-6/4. The nine vintage representatives this time around are 4/6 to extend the fine record before the form book is consulted. My preferred short listed trio in order of preference is MASTER SINGER, HUMBLE HERO and COUNT CALABASH.  Speedo Boy is offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Favourites have snared four Placepot positions via seven renewals, statistics which include two (9/4 & 13/8) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/3—Manjaam (good to firm)

 

2.50: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared ten of the twelve contests to date, whilst ten of the last eleven gold medallists have been sent off at a top price of 9/2. Five-year-olds are only conspicuous by their absence on this occasion, whereby four-year-olds MIRAGE DANCER and GOD GIVEN are taken to get us safely through to the third leg of our favourite wager.  MIRAGE DANCER was the subject of overnight support, whilst GOD GIVEN is trained by Luca Cumani who got back on the winning trail on Friday.

Favourite factor: Seven of the fifteen favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include six winning market leaders.

 

3.25: Four-year-olds have claimed 24 of the 35 available Placepot positions (stats include eight of the eleven winners) and the pick of the five vintage representatives will hopefully prove to be URBAN FOX, DYNAMIIC and QUEEN OF TIME, the trio being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

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Favourite factor: Only four of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

 

4.00: Four and five-year-olds have won 15 of the last 18 renewals of the Victoria Cup between them (15 have scored carrying 9-1 or less) and putting the facts and stats together, a 'short list' of POUVOIR MAGIQUE (drawn 4/29), ESCOBAR (26), SABADOR (14) and KYNREN (2) emerges.  The reserve nomination is awarded to SHADY MCCOY (21).  It’s worth noting that although four-year-olds made up one third of the total number of runners last year (8/24), vintage representatives snared the Tricast between them which was declared at £1,732.80.  Out of interest, four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion, with all four of my Placepot entries representing the vintage.

Favourite factor: Nine of the 21 market leaders have reached the frame since 1999, statistics which include four winners.

Draw details for the last twelve years (most recent renewal listed first):

18-23-11-26 (24 ran-good to firm – 5/1*-8/1-25/1-33/1)

29-6-2-21 (26 ran-good to firm – 20/1-25/1-10/1-33/1)

23-25-16-1 (26 ran - good to firm - 10/1-33/1-25/1-16/1)

25-29-21-23 (25 ran - good to soft - 12/1-16/1-25/1-9/1**)

13-27-16-21 (26 ran - good to firm - 25/1-12/1-16/1-25/1)

2-1-5-8 (24 ran - soft - 9/1-11/1-14/1-20/1)

7-3-4-15 (28 ran - good to firm - 15/2-25/1-20/1-9/1)

21-14-9-5 (29 ran - good - 16/1-4/1*-40/1-33/1)

1-24-3-14 (27 ran - good to firm - 25/1-50/1-33/1-28/1)

13-14-17-18 (22 ran - good to firm - 5/1**-5/1**-8/1-7/1)

16-27-3-2 (28 ran - good to soft - 14/1-16/1-10/1-14/1)

9-16-14-6 (20 ran - good to firm - 8/1-25/1-33/1-12/1)

Record of the course winners in the Victoria Cup:

1/4—Zhui Feng (good to firm)

1/5—Shady McCoy (good to soft)

2/4—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

1/1—Louie De Palma (good to firm)

 

4.35: In some reports, this was listed as a new race last year which I could not fathom, given that the juvenile event is run over the same trip, in the same class with the same prefix.  It was (as far as I can detect) only classed as a new event because of the prefix ‘novice’ which was attached to the contest. Upwards and onward in positive mode or at least, as confident as one can be given that seven newcomers have been declared, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be DARK SHADOW.  Either way, DAVE DEXTER (winner on debut at Newbury - entered up for a big race at the back end of the season) looks a fairly safe conveyance to get us through to the finale.

Favourite factor: Eight of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five (11/4—9/4**-11/8-11/8-4/5) winners.

 

5.10: 18 of the 26 horses to finish in the frame thus far carried a maximum burden of 9-5, statistics which include four winners at odds of 20/1-20/1-14/1-8/1.  Four and five-year-old have just about monopolised the results (the younger set lead 4-3 from a win perspective via just the seven renewals).  MADAME BOUNTY is the win and place call, whilst older horses such as MOONRAKER (see stats below) and RED TYCOON (runs off a three pound lower mark despite finishing second in the race last year) can bustle up the younger set this time around.

Favourite factor: All six previous market leaders finished out with the washing before last year’s successful 7/2 favourite sent some of the punters home in a happy frame of mind.

Draw details:

22-21-8-16 (20 ran-good to firm – 7/2*-20/1-7/1-8/1)

2-22-20-13 (21 ran-good to firm – 4/1-14/1-10/1-12/1)

1-3-9-21 (21 ran - good to firm - 20/1-16/1-8/1-16/1)

4-20-14-15 (18 ran - good to soft - 10/1-7/1-10/1-16/1)

3-2-6-1 (25 ran - good to firm - 14/1-33/1-40/1-8/1)

9-6-7-10 (21 ran - good to soft - 20/1-17/2-9/1-15/2)

7-4-13-3 (12 ran - soft - 8/1-14/1-8/1-6/1)

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Moonraker (good to soft & good to firm) – Ascot is the only venue where Moonraker has won via 32 assignments to date.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 11th May

CHESTER – MAY 11

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends during the last seven years:

2017: £11.30 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced)

2016: £22.70 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 4 placed - 1 unplaced)

2015: £900.10 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £545.20 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2013: £129.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

2012: £5,565.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

2011: £64.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £1,034.10 - 43 favourites - 13 winners - 11 placed - 19 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.5% units went through – 13/8* & 4/1

Race 2: 84.6% of the remaining units when through – 4/5* - 5/1 – 25/1

Race 3: 29.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 7/2 – 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 70.3% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 2/1* - 15/2

Race 5: 58.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 7/2

Race 6: 80.3% of the units secured the dividend – 6/4* - 11/4 – 12/1

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Chester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Arcanada), 2 (South Seas), 15 (Mickey) & 12 (Penwortham)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Eminent) & 1 (Convey)

Leg 3 (3.00): 12 (Pivoine), 2 (Dark Red) & 1 (Titi Makfi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 6 (Magic Circle), 9 (Who Dares Wins), 8 (My Reward) & 7 (Fun Mac)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Kachy) & 5 (Growl)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Kazawi) & 7 (Jabbaar)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last 17 renewals (clean sweep 1-2-3 in two of the last ten years - forecast landed three years ago), whilst 13 of the last 15 winners have carried weights of 8-10 or more.  If we bring the stats right up to date however, five-year-olds have secured five of the last eight renewals, with the two vintages having dominated the event down the years.  Despite his stall position out wide, money has come in for ARCANADA overnight and with Tom Dascombe’s raider possessing ticks in both of the (age/weight) trend boxes, I’ll join in by including the Arcano gelding in my Placepot mix.  Similar comments apply to SOUTH SEAS who being slight better drawn in stall nine would be my idea of the each way play in the opening contest.  From the vintage stats, I’m also offering win and place chances to MICKEY and PENWORTHAM.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have scored during the last 20 years, whilst nine of the fifteen favourites have claimed Placepot positions via the last thirteen renewals.

Draw factor (seven and a half furlongs – most recent renewal listed first):

8-2-4 11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (11 ran-good)

5-14-8 (8 ran-soft)

1-13-8 (10 ran-soft)

2-1-13 (10 ran-good to soft)

3-1-6 (9 ran-soft)

12-5-15 (14 ran-good to firm)

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7-12-13 (11 ran-good to soft)

6-16-10 (14 ran--good to firm)

6-4-1 (11 ran-good)

5-6-3 (12 ran-good)

10-4-8 (9 ran-good to soft)

13-5-9-10 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-4-3-7 (18 ran-good to soft)

4-3-2-10 (16 ran-good to firm)

2-14-3-17 (17 ran-good to firm)

16-6-5-7 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-13-9 (17 ran-good)

7-5-4-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

11-10-4-14 (18 ran-good to firm)

 

2.25 (Huxley Stakes): Four-year-olds have won nine of the last sixteen contests whereby EMINENT is the first name on the team sheet, albeit Martyn Meade’s Frankel colt is too short for me at around the 8/11 mark to become involved with from a win perspective.  Sir Michael Stoute attempts to win his seventh Huxley Stakes winner having declared CONVEY though that said, only one vintage representative has scored in the last nineteen years.  I wonder if it’s purely coincidental that the winner Maraahel hailed from Michael’s stable?

Favourite factor: 17 of the last 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions (11 winners).  13 of the last 19 gold medallists scored at odds of 100/30 or less.

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, with vintage raiders coming to this year’s gig on a four-timer.  POVOINE and TITI MAKFI are the only relevant raiders this time around, with the pair listed in marginal order of preference on account of the draw (three over ten).  Ed Dunlop’s Tadleel was a poor flop for us yesterday having crawled out of the stalls from a wide draw which made it impossible to become involved at the business end of proceedings.  Ryan Moore takes the rdde about stable companion DARK RED here with obvious Placepot credentials at the very least.

Favourite factor: Ten of the fourteen favourites have reached the frame via thirteen renewals, statistics which include three (11/2, 9/4 & 10/11) winners.

 

3.35 (Chester Cup): This is one of the few ‘staying’ races on the entire racing calendar that is dependent upon the draw (to a fashion) and we ignore the stall positions at our potential peril.  Low numbers invariably rule the roost as eight of the last eleven results (see below) confirm.  Six-year-olds have won this event five times during the last decade, whilst ten of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2.  Putting the stats and facts together offers a ‘short list’ of MAGIC CIRCLE, WHO DARES WINS AND MY REWARD.  WHO DARES WINS would seemingly have plenty to do from stall fifteen but Ryan Moore’s 44% record when riding for Alan King via seven winners convinces yours truly that it would be foolish to leave him out of the equation. The reserve nomination is awarded to FUN MAC who runs here from a better mark than when finishing third last year from an inferior draw.

Favourite factor: Three of the last nineteen favourites have won the Chester Cup, whilst eight of the twenty three market leaders have reached the frame during the study period.

Draw factor: (eighteen and a half furlongs):

2-3-13-7 (17 ran-good)

4-15-9-12 (17 ran-good)

11-9-7-3 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-11-2-5 (17 ran-good)

2-7-11-14 (17-good to firm)

13-8-19-4 (16 ran-soft)

1-3-16-19 (17 ran-good to firm)

5-16-6-1 (17 ran--good)

4-8-7-6 (16 ran--good to firm)

13-11-8 (17 ran-good to firm)

1-2-11-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

15-8-11-2 (17 ran-good to soft)

4-18-11-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

2-3-15-4 (16 ran-good to firm)

7-8-6-15 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-4-16-13 (17 ran-good to firm)

4-3-17-5 (18 ran-good)

13-16-9-8 (16 ran-good to firm)

9-10-3-17 (18 ran-good)

 

4.05: Five-year-olds have won four of the five renewals to date, with a 25/1 chance being responsible for preventing total domination in the contest thus far.  KACHY is the lone (but worthy) representative on this occasion, with Tom Dascombe’s raider as short as 5/4 in places at the time of writing.  Such cramped odds overnight made it possible to obtain an each way play on GROWL, though those odds are disappearing as I near the end of Thursday’s offering.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include two (9/4 & 6/4) winners.

Draw factor (seven furlongs):

3-2-1 (9 ran-good)

5-1-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

3-4-6 (9 ran-good)

3-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (7 ran-soft)

 

4.35: Four and five-year-olds have equally shared the four renewals to date, with KAZAWI and JABBAR expected to land out third Chester Placepot this week, albeit slight losses were incurred via the permutation yesterday.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (10/3) favourite.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot positions – Wednesday 2nd May

ASCOT – MAY 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £70.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 4 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 68.0% units went through – 12/1 & 5/6*

Race 2: 71.5% of the remaining units when through – 5/1 & Evens*

Race 3: 8.4% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 & 10/1 (2 x 7/2**)

Race 4: 75.9% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 7/2 – 10/1

Race 5: 52.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 & 2/1*

Race 6: 59.9% of the units secured the dividend – 9/1 – 12/1 – 11/4*

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 2 (2.35): 1 (Dathanna)

Leg 3 (3.10): 4 (Torcedor), 5 (Raheen House) & 6 (Time To Study)

Leg 4 (3.45): 7 (Sound And Silence), 6 (Laugh A Minute) & 4 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Accidental Agent) & 3 (Century Dream)

Leg 6 (4.55): 10 (Balmoral Castle), 5 (Mountain Angel), 2 (Berkshire Boy), 7 (Sayem) & 9 (Saluti)

Suggested stake: 90 bets to 10p stakes

 

  • Much depends on the state of the ground at Ascot because if some of the heavy rain we have endured here at Bristol overnight gets into the ground, you can forget the official going – “good, good to soft in places” quote overnight. That goes for the ground at Bath (I live ten minutes away from the racecourse) – and then some!

 

2.00: If ‘whispers’ are to be believed, THE IRISH ROVER is home and hosed following a half decent debut effort at Dundalk.  That last comment does offers warning signals however because we don’t know how Ryan Moore’s mount will go on turf, especially with rain forecast to reach Ascot well before lunchtime.  There was only a light shower overnight but the wet stuff it set to intensify sooner rather than later this morning.  The trade press price of 8/13 looks wide of the mark via the exchanges this morning, with 4/9 being more likely to be returned.  If that does not sound like a great deal of difference, the differential is similar to a horse being back from 9/1 into 5/1.  You will be in a better position to judge the way the market is swinging later in the morning, whereby I am going to bank on Ryan’s mount in a smaller permutation today than is usually the case because of the uncertainty of conditions.

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Favourite factor: Fifteen of the sixteen winners have scored at 6/1 or less, whilst six favourites have prevailed to date.  Twelve of the eighteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions. This meeting was transferred to Kempton five years ago but I have included the (high profile) results nonetheless.  

 

2.35: Some strange trainer movements are in place today.  All five of John Gosden’s runners turn up at Wolverhampton, whilst only one of Sir Michael’s Stoute’s four representatives are travelling to Ascot.  Upwards and onward in positive mode by suggesting that Charlie Appleby can be the beneficiary here having declared DATHANNA.  I’m banking on the first two hot-pots on the card, albeit I’m mindful that the opening pair of short priced (5/6 & even money) market leaders twelve months ago failed to oblige.

Favourite factor: 16/17 winners have scored at odds of a top price of 8/1.  Seven favourites have won, whilst twelve of the eighteen market leaders have finished in the frame.

 

3.10: Last year’s £70.90 Placepot dividend would have been so much less but for the two 7/2 joint favourites having finished out of the frame twelve months ago.  Although the two horses that finished in the ‘short field’ frame were only sent off at 15/2 and 10/1, 91.6% of the live units perished!  TORCEDOR looks another lively Irish raider on the card and having claimed one gold medal and two of the silver variety from just three assignments on soft ground, Jessica Harrington’s Fastnet Rock gelding can go close in this grade/company.  RAHEEN HOUSE and TIME TO STUDY are preferred to Desert Skyline in the projected ground.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Nineteen of the last twenty one favourites have been beaten in this ‘Sagaro Stakes’, with just six market leaders finishing in the frame in the process. That said, eighteen of the last twenty winners scored at odds of 8/1 or less.

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Raheen House (good to soft)

 

3.45: Although SOUND AND SILENCE won the ‘Windsor Castle’ at last year’s royal meeting on fast ground, Charlie Appleby’s Exceed And Exceed colt had run some decent races under contrasting conditions.  Roger Varian’s runners are beginning to do what they are told now whereby the chance for LAUGH A MINUTE is respected, whilst Sir Michael Stoute’s lone raider EQTIDAAR might prove to be of the liveliest outsiders on the card.  Invincible Army does not light me up at the projected price of 6/4.

Favourite factor: Five of the last thirteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen of the last twenty market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  Twelve of the last fourteen winners have scored at odds ranging between 6/4 and 7/1.

Ascot record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Sound And Silence (good to firm)

 

4.20: Four-year-olds have snared six renewals during the last twelve years and ACCIDENTAL AGENT and CENTURY DREAM can continue the trend on behalf of the vintage. I made a strong case for last year’s 7/2 winner and that would have been the case for CENTURY DREAM but for the fact that ‘headgear’ has been left off, despite the fact that a hood has been worn in each of the last four occasions that Simon Crisford’s Cape Cross colt has won.  This pair should see us safely through to the Placepot finale however.

Favourite factor: Nine of the fifteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions (two winners), though it’s worth noting that the 4/9 favourite in a ’win only’ contest was turned over eight years ago.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/3—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

 

4.55: Horses carrying 8-11 or more have secured nine of the ten available Placepot postitions to date and though we have to take allowances into consideration here (hoping that the relevant pilots claim their full entitlements), the field can be narrowed from twenty down to eleven.  My quintet against the field accordingly consists of the 2016 winner BALMORAL CASTLE, MOUNTAIN ANGEL, BERKSHIRE BOY, SAYEM and proven soft ground winner SALUTI.

Favourite factor: One of the two favourites secured a Placepot position without winning its respective event two years ago.

Draw factor (One mile straight):

9-10-5 (10 ran-good to firm)

9-7-5-10 (17 ran-good to soft)

15-3-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Apex King (good to firm)

1/4—Balmoral Castle (good to soft)

1/1—Fire Tree (good)

1/4—Professor (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 25th March

DONCASTER – MARCH 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £160.00 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 54.0% units went through – 28/1, 10/1, 7/2* & 8/1

Race 2: 59.9% of the remaining units when through – 15/8*, 25/1 & 11/4

Race 3: 75.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7*, 9/2 & 25/1

Race 4: 19.9% of the remaining units went through – 33/1, 13/2**, 16/1 & 20/1 (13/2**)

Race 5: 34.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 50/1

Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1, 14/1, 8/1 & 9/1 (9/2)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 8 (Right Action), 11 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Colonel Frank) & 7 (Lost At Sea)

Leg 2 (3.00): 2 (First Contact) & 12 (Stealth)

Leg 3 (3.35): 7 (Explain), 9 (Dark Defender), 11 (Private Matter) & 8 (Mobsta)

Leg 4 (4.10): 5 (Royal Line) & 1 (Great Hall)

Leg 5 (4.45): 8 (Archippos), 10 (Music Seeker) & 3 (Tuff Rock)

Leg 6 (5.20): 3 (Broderie) & 7 (Dr Richard Kimble)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.25: Richard Fahey has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this opening event (was also responsible for the runner up last year at 10/1) and the quintet were all four-year-olds which makes for interesting reading.  Richard has declared four horses on this occasion, with his lone four-year-old raider RIGHT ACTION taken to lead his stablemates home, as was the case twelve months ago. Four-year-olds have won five of the last six contests for good measure, whereby my short listed trio to accompany Right Action comprises of KNOW YOUR LIMIT, COLONEL FRANK and LOST AT SEA.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 15 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Right Touch (good to soft)

1/5—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/9—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/2—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/13—Khelman (heavy)

2/2—Act Echo (good to firm & good to soft)

 

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3.00: We can only suppose that PREVENT will turn out to be an above average type, especially in the excellent care of Ralph Beckett and his team.  As for now, I expect the experience already gained by the likes of STEALTH and (particularly) FIRST CONTACT might prove too much for the Poet’s Voice gelding at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

3.35: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals between them, including twelve of the last thirteen contests. Richard Fahey has secured three of the last eight renewals, whilst the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Putting the stats into the deep far fryer produces names such as EXPLAIN, DARK DEFENDER and PRIVATE MATTER.  MOBSTA is a regular at this opening weekend of the season and Mick Channon’s raider should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen winners have scored at 66/1--40/1--33/1—33/1--16/1--16/1--14/1--14/1, whilst four of the other six gold medallists were returned at 25/1--12/1--7/1--7/1 during the study period. Eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Effect of the draw (latest renewal shown first):

8-15-13-14 (22 ran –good)

21-1-5-18 (20 ran-soft)

3-16-6-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

1-7-2-16 (18 ran-soft)

6-4-8-10 (18 ran-soft)

15-11-4-3 (22 ran-good)

4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)

2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)

2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)

1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)

15-11-6 (15 ran-good)

3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)

9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)

22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)

2/4—Naadirr (2 x good)

1/4—Captain Colby (good)

2/7—Mobsta (2 x soft)

 

4.10: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and vintage representatives are 6/4 against extending their good recent run before the form book is consulted. John Gosden has declared vintage representative ROYAL LINE who might have GREAT HALL to beat here, with Mick Quinn’s eight-year-old always seemingly that bit better with some juice in the ground.

Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites have prevailed, though only two of the other nine market leaders (in total) additionally secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals during the last fourteen years.

 

4.45: Last year’s winner ARCHIPPOS returns to defend his crown and with Phil Kirby’s team in fine form just now (five of his last thirteen runners have won), the five-year-old is the first name on the team sheet.  Joining him there are MUSIC SEEKER and TUFF ROCK, especially as four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals of this event.  MUSIC SEEKER won at the first time of asking last year on soft ground, whereby Declan Carroll’s representative could be the value for money call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/1**) winner.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Archippos (good)

1/3—Mutarakez (good to soft)

 

5.20: Mark Johnston has won two of the last three renewals in which his stable was represented whereby the chance of DR RICHARD KIMBLE is greatly respected.  That said, Mark’s Lawman gelding might need every pound of the ten he receives from BRODERIE with Charlie Appleby sending out winners for fun of late.  Talking of in-form trainers, Phil Kirby has to be mentioned in dispatches whereby Rayna’s World could outrun his odds.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders have won two of the seven renewals to date, with five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Three of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, though four renewals have slipped by since a market leader scored.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

ASCOT ON SUNDAY – IF YOU’RE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING: 

Last year’s dividend: 132.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 35.9% units went through – 3/1*, 33/1 & 13/2

Race 2: 42.1% of the remaining units when through – 9/1, 7/2 & 7/2 (3/1)

Race 3: 35.6% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 (win only – 5/4*)

Race 4: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 12/1, 5/1 & 10/1 (9/2)

Race 6: 44.3% of the units secured the dividend – 11/1, 7/2** & 8/1 (7/2**)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 17th February

ASCOT – FEBRUARY 17

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £76.00 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Captain Cattistock) & 5 (Dame De Compagne)

Leg 2 (1.50): 4 (Ms Parfois), 1 (Black Corton) & 3 (Mount News)

Leg 3 (2.25): 2 (Tenor Nivernais), 1 (Gold Present) & 3 (Royal Encore)

Leg 4 (3.00): 4 (Kildisart), 7 (Le Patriote) & 5 (Dieg Man)

Leg 5 (3.35): 1 (Coney Island) & 5 (Top Notch)

Leg 6 (4.10): 7 (Ballyheigue Bay), 11 (Laugharne) & 2 (Templeross)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Five and six-year-old have (equally) shared six of the last seven contests between them. Paul Nicholls held two options for CAPTAIN CATTISTOCK today and it’s interesting to note that the other race was an event at Wincanton which Paul has won for each of the last five years, now leaving the trainer without a runner in that contest.  Such a move is clear indication that Paul was ready to throw his five-year-old Black Sam Bellamy gelding into this tougher assignment following two (soft and heavy ground) victories at Wincanton thus far.  Six-year-old Count Meribel is not easily overlooked, though the Twiston-Davies raider has to overcome a slightly disappointing effort the last day, albeit in decent company.  Accordingly, DAME DE COMPAGNE (receives ten pounds from Captain Cattistock) is offered up as the main threat to the marginal selection in a fascinating opening event.

Favourite factor: Eight of the eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five winners, albeit the 2012 (4/7) favourite could only secure the silver medal, whilst a 4/9 jolly was another Placepot casualty despite finishing second in what was a 'win only' contest.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/1—Count Meribel (good to soft)

 

1.50: Seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 19 renewals of this ‘Reynoldstown’ event and with only a 33/1 chance in opposition to three vintage representatives, the trend looks set to be extended.  This is going to be a big day for Ruth Jefferson, with two highly regarded inmates strutting their stuff down south following Ruth‘s first winner at Kelso on Thursday.  MOUNT NEWS is first up on behalf of the stable and whilst possessing plenty of undoubted ability, Ruth’s Presenting gelding will need to be a little sharper with his fencing to trouble to front two in the market I fancy.  That said, I will add MOUNT NEWS into my Placepot permutation alongside MS PARFOIS and BLACK CORTON who are listed in order of preference, mainly because of the seven pound concession from one to t’other.  There is also the fact that Anthony Honeyball can do little wrong (recent ratio of 9/21) at present, notwithstanding the fact that Ms Parfois was oh so impressive in each of her victories at Cheltenham, Newbury at Warwick of late.  In truth, I am also influenced by the 2/1 quote for MS PARFOIS over and above even money about Black Corton.

Favourite factor: The last 19 winners have produced a top priced winner of 17/2.  10 favourites secured Placepot positions (eight winners) during the study period.

 

2.25: Anyone who witnessed the thirty length victory of TENOR NIVERNAIS in this event on soft ground last year cannot help but be attracted to the 7/1 odds (generally on offer) about the Venetia Williams raider. Placepot inclusion is taken as read accordingly, whilst 14/1 about the other Anthony Honeyball raider (REGAL ENCORE) on the card also catches the eye. Anthony has already saddled a winner here at Ascot this season with his level stake profit at the track standing at 13 points.  That said, I fully respect the chance of GOLD PRESENT who could yet be anything in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame to date (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the third event on the card:

1/2—Gold Present (good to soft)

2/4—Tenor Niovernais (2 x soft)

1/4—Royal Encore (good to soft)

1/3—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.00: Ten of the last twelve winners (including nine of the last ten gold medallists) have carried weights of 11-2 or less, whilst six-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals. Taking the facts and stats into account, I’m offering KILDISART, LE PATRIOTE and DIG MAN against the other six contenders, the trio having been listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last seventeen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include three (11/2**, 11/4 and 9/4) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/1—Kildisart (good to soft)

 

3.35: It goes without saying that it is difficult to leave Cue Card out of the equation, especially as he has won this event on his only two starts in the contest in 2013 and again last year.  Time moves against us all unfortunately and if there was just one horse barring the way for Colin Tizzard’s grand servant sentiment might have ruled the day, though with four rapidly improving seven-year-olds in the contest, that option is not a variable with Cue Card now showing distinct signs of wear and tear. Speredek was included in the afore mentioned quartet out of sheer admiration for a horse that does not know the meaning of defeat though on this occasion, CONEY ISLAND, TOP NOTCH and WAITING PATENTLY are three mightily impressive types to take on.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference at the time of writing, though much could change by the time that flag fall arrives!  Barry Geraghty is responsible for giving the Irish raider the marginal call, given that the horse looked beaten the last day but Barry insisted that he was merely idling, giving the impression that there was much more to come from the Flemensfirth gelding, though there needs to be in this company!  In terms of potential future champions, this is the most exhilarating renewal of this event since the old king died.

Favourite factor: 14 of the 19 market leaders during the study period claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include thirteen successful market leaders. Ten of the last twelve favourites have won with the other gold medallists during the period scoring at 11/2 & 4/1.

Record of the course winners in the feature race on the card:

1/1—Coney Isalnd (good to soft)

2/2—Cue Card (2 x soft)

3/3—Top Notch (2 x good to soft & soft)

 

4.10: The booking of James Bowen aboard BALLYHEIGUE BAY catches the eye and no mistake, as does the amount of cash waiting in the positive queue, just in case potential layers miss the trainer/jockey combination, given that Chris Gordon landed another decent prize with Tara Bridge at Sandown yesterday.  Others for the mix include TEMPLEROSS, BUCKLE STREET and the potential ‘dark horse’ in the contest LAUGHARNE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have claimed bronze medals when securing Placepot positions to date.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Desert Sensation (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal ratios (in brackets) and five year figures at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners--Nicky Henderson—6/38 (loss of 9 points) – 30/154 (loss of 39)

4—Gary Moore (3/20 – loss of 5) – 8/82 – loss of 25

4—David Pipe (0/1) – 9/59 – loss of 3

3—Kim Bailey (1/5 – loss of 2) – 3/32 – loss of 23)

3—Martin Keighley (First runners at Ascot this season) – 1/12 +2

3—Paul Nicholls (2/11 – loss of 5) – 29/152 – loss of 22)

2—Anthony Honeyball (0/3) – 1/8 +13

2—Ruth Jefferson (First ever runners at Ascot)

2—Suzy Smith (0/5) – 1/14 – loss of 7

2—Colin Tizzard (0/15) – 8/63 – loss of 3

2—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/10 – loss of 5) – 2/46 – loss of 35

2—Tim Vaughan (First runners at Ascot this season) – 0/10)

2—Evan Williams (0/4) – 3/46 – loss of 21

+ 16 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £95.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Wincanton: £66.80 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Lingfield: £55.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £61.30 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 20th January

ASCOT – JANUARY 20

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 1 (Nayati) & 2 (Oistrakh Le Noir)

Leg 2 (1.15): 5 (Red Devil Star), 6 (Uhlan Bute) & 1 (Chef D’Equipe)

Leg 3 (1.50): 1 (Le Bag Au Roi), 5 (Midnight Tune) & 2 (Dusky Legend)

Leg 4 (2.25): 11 (Oxwich Bay), 6 (Night Of Sin) & 8 (Jabulani)

Leg 5 (3.00): 3 (Acting Lass), 6 (Guitar Pete) & 1 (Tenor Nivernais)

Leg 6 (3.35): 5 (Un De Sceaux) & 1 (Brain Power)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.40: Alan King has won the last two renewals when represented whereby the chance of NAYATI is thoroughly respected.  That said, Ben Pauling has a typical (import) type here in OISTRAKH LE NOIR for a set of owners who have enjoyed more than their fair share of success in recent years. Conditions will not pose a problem for either horse from what we have witnessed to date and though I wouldn’t particularly care to choose between the two at the time of writing, both names go into the Placepot mix without hesitation.  There is a level of support on the exchanges for Gary Moore’s newcomer Et Moir Alors, though Gary’s Kap Rock gelding would do amazingly well to give the first mentioned pair experience and a beating, even in receipt of six pounds from the relevant rivals.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine renewals have been won by market leaders whilst two horses returned at 100/30 prevailed in the first two contests.

 

1.15: Philip Hobbs has been enduring a poor run of form by his high standards since Christmas, despite landing a treble at Sandown/Wincanton a fortnight ago.  Just one of his subsequent 13 horses have won and the fact that an average of less than one runner a day during the period tells you all you need to know.  That said, CHEF D’EQUIPE has Placepot credentials for all to see, albeit the likes of (good to soft) course winner RED DEVIL STAR and (to a fashion) UHLAN BUTE are preferred from a win perspective.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 5/2 favourite was one of two runners that failed to complete the course.  Horses filled the Placepot frame at odds of 14/1, 5/1 and 16/1 two years ago in the relevant contest.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/4—Red Devil Star (good to soft)

1.50: Two in form trainers clash here and no mistake, naming Anthony Honeyball (MIDNIGHT TUNE) and Warren Greatrex (LE BAG AU ROI) as the handlers who have rarely had their horses in better form down the years, a statement which certainly applies to Anthony (four of his last six runners have won) for sure.  DUSKY LEGEND completes my trio against the remaining three contenders in this Grade 2 contest which is confined to mares.
Favourite factor: Five of the eight favourites have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective to date, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Graceful Legend (good to soft)

2.25: Five-year-olds came to the gig on a four-timer in the most recent renewal, with representatives claiming silver and bronze medals when both returned at 10/1.  Vintage representatives are 6/1 to get back to winning ways here before the form book is consulted, with both JABULANI and NIGHT OF SIN boasting each way claims from my viewpoint.  Whether either horse can keep tabs on six-year-old OXWICH BAY at the business end of proceedings remains to be seen. Out of interest, six-year-olds have won the other three contests during the last seven years, stats which also bring Crossed My Mind and Jenkins into the equation.
Favourite factor: Just two of the twelve favourites have obliged to date, whilst only three market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race on the card:

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1/3—Air Horse One (soft)

 

3.00: There is evidence of overnight support at a double figure price for TENOR NIVERNAIS which comes as no surprise given the (soft) conditions and any further rain can only enhance his chance.  The weight stats are against the Venetia Williams raider however, the last horse having carried 11-12 to victory back in 2008.  I still fancy his chance from a Placepot perspective however, whilst those on Aidan Coleman’s mount at fancy prices will certainly get a decent run for their win and place investments from my viewpoint.  Six of the last seven winners have carried 11-3 or less, a factor which points yours truly in the direction of ACTING LASS and GUITAR PETE as potential winners of the contest. The latter named Nicky Richards northern raider represents the yard which won both of the 2011/12 renewals with Tatenen.
Favourite factor: Five of the nine favourites during the last decade have claimed Placepot positions, though winning favourites during the period were only conspicuous by their absence.  Indeed, three of the last five winners were returned at 25/1, 22/1 and 12/1.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest:

2/4—Tenor Nivernais (2 x soft)

1/2—Minella Daddy (good to soft)

1/4—Fortunate George (good to soft)

3.35: Paul Nicholls (SAN BENEDETO) has saddled four of the last nine winners of this Grade 1 event (three of which were returned as favourites), though Willie Mullins has ‘interrupted the trainer trend’ these last two years having won with UN DE SCEAUX on both occasions.  Paul suggested a while ago that he was scaling back on his number of runners this season and so it has proved in recent weeks, continuing today with just the one declaration on the Ascot card who is something of a no-hoper according to media types.  At 25/1 (thereabouts), SAN BENEDETO could provide forecast fodder from my viewpoint, especially if BRAIN POWER fails to complete the course again.  Otherwise, UN DE SCEAUX should have too many guns close home for Nicky Henderson’s talented seven-year-old, especially at level weights.
Favourite factor: 15 of the 17 winners since the turn of the Millennium have been returned at 5/1 or less, stats which include nine successful favourites.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Brain Power (good to soft)

1/3—San Benedeto (good)

1/1—Un De Sceaux (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Nicky Henderson (5/22 – loss of 11 points) – 38/182 – loss of 45

5—Harry Fry (1/11 – loss of 7) – 13/53 – marginal profit

3—Charlie Longsdon (0/3) – 7/69 +7

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (1/7 – loss of 2) – 4/55 – loss of 24

3—Venetia Williams (0/6) – 14/93 +31

2—Kim Bailey (0/3) – 4/35 – loss of 3

2—Alan King (1/11 – loss of 4) – 12/90 +12

2—Ben Pauling (2/7 +3) -0 3/21 – loss of 2

2—Lucinda Russell (First runenrs at Ascot this season) – 1/4 +2

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

56 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £243.30 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Taunton: £116.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £70.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 23rd December

ASCOT - DECEMBER 23

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £144.50 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 7 (Christmas In April), 9 (Comely) & 13 (One Of Us)

Leg 2 (1.15): 3 (Adrien Du Pont) & 1 (Coney Island)

Leg 3 (1.50): 11 (Red Devil Star), 4 (Poker School), 3 (Pougne Bobbi) & 7 (Theo’s Charm)

Leg 4 (2.25): 9 (Unowwhatimeanharry) & 6 (The Worlds End)

Leg 5 (3.00): 13 (Fortunate George), 11 (Walk In The Mill), 14 (Icing On The Cake) & 9 (On Tour)

Leg 6 (3.35): 7 (Verdana Blue), 5 (Charli Parcs) & 10 (Caid Du Lin)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40: Just the seven renewals to date though that said, five-year-olds have won six of the seven events (12/1-7/1-6/1-6/1-9/2-3/1*) whilst securing the forecast positions on two occasions (9/2 & 8/1--6/1 & 14/1) and the first and third horses home (3/1 & 16/1) five years ago.  The pick of this year's three vintage representatives could prove to be COMELY, CHRISTMAS IN APRIL (who must be one one very confused horse) and ONE OF US.  The latter named raider is saddled by Nick Williams who has enjoyed this day at Ascot many times via Reve De Sivola (see trainers stats below), whilst the first named Nicky Henderson pair have chances on the form book for all to see.  Ned Curtis rides CHRISTMAS IN APRIL and the jockey will be champing at the bit to ride a winner having been aboard a favourite (Casablanca Mix) who was in cruise control at the last obstacle at Exeter the other day (seven lengths clear) when tumbling over. Forgetthesmalltalk is nominated as the alternative option but not all of Alan King’s runners are going well at present, a stat which is highlighted by the fact only one of Alan’s last five favourites has prevailed.
Favourite factor: Three of the six market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via one gold and two silver medals.

1.15: Five-year-olds have won six of the last seven renewals and always one for keeping tabs on this type of information, Paul Nicholls saddles his good to soft course winner ADRIEN DU PONT with a live chance this afternoon. Yes, Paul’s Fontwell winner is upped in class again on only his third start over the bigger obstacles, but the trainer knows more about the game than I ever will and if it’s good enough for Paul who would have held any number of options for the contest, then it is good enough for me.  I’ve grown tired (at last) of giving MORE THAN THAT another chance though to put the record straight (when other media commentators just spout out words with using facts to back them up), outsiders of three since the end of October have won three of the eighteen races they have contested, stats which show only a fractional loss to level stakes, the winners having scored at 8/1, 4/1 & 9/4.  A certain ‘betting ring’ conveyor of opinions needs to add facts to statements, rather than just spouting out words that can offer punters a ‘bum steer’.  That leaves us with the projected favourite (market leaders have a good record as you can see below) who rightly heads the betting, as CONEY ISLAND has less questions to answer than his two rivals in terms of experience/current form/conditions of the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven of the ten favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five (10/11—4/5--5/4**--6/5--Evens) winners.

Record of the course winners in the second event:

1/1—Adrien Du Pont (good to soft)

 

1.50: There will be worse outsiders on the Ascot card today than course winner RED DEVIL STAR from my viewpoint, especially with Suzy Smith having lowered the colours of leading trainers on many occasions down the years.  Last year’s winner POKER SCHOOL will encounter similar conditions today and with a decent five pound claimer in the plate, Ian’s Gold Well representative is effectively four pounds better in twelve months on.  Others to consider in a competitive event include POUGNE BOBBI and THEO’S CHARM.
Favourite factor: One of the two favourite has secured a Placepot position thus far without winning the relevant contest.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Poker School (good to soft)

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1/3—Red Devil Star (good to soft)

2.25: For all that plenty of horses deserve their respective places in the line up, last year’s winner UNOWHATIMEANHARRY will take plenty of kicking out of the frame here having scored under the same (good to soft conditions) as when successful twelve months ago.  Having won four of his seven races over timber to date, THE WORLDS END is offered as the alternative each way option for those of you that want to take on the favourite who is 15/8 in most books at the time of writing.  On the other hand, 10/1 is a fair price about Tom George’s Stowaway gelding given his Grade 1 victory at Aintree nine months ago.  When the trainer ‘tilts at the windmill’ on the odd occasion, Tom’s runners are not usually too far away when the taps are turned on close home.
Favourite factor: Favourites have secured nine of the last 14 contests, whilst 13 of the 15 market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—L’Ami Serge

2/5—Lil Rockerfella (2 x good to soft)

1/2—Thomas Campbell (good to soft)

1/1—Unowhatimeanharry (good to soft)

3.00: Nine of the last 11 winners have carried 11-1 or less with FORTUNATE GEORGE (Emma Lavelle knows how to win these big handicaps), WALK IN THE MILL (trainer Robert Walford has won with three of his last seven runners) and ON TOUR (running off the same attractive mark as when falling at Newbury last time out) all holding realistic claims at each way prices today. The ground might have dried out to much for Yala Enki, whereby the phones could be busy this morning in the Betfair and Paddy Power office with punters attempting to take each way advantage of the relevant 40/1 quotes about ICING ON THE CAKE.
Favourite factor: All manner of results have ensued in recent years but from a toteplacepot perspective, five of the last seven favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/5—Ptit Zig (soft)

1/4—Go Conquer (good)

1/3—Regal Encore (good to soft)

1/1—Yala Enki (soft)

1/1—Bigbadjohn (soft)

1/1—Walk In The Mill (good to soft)

1/3—Fortunate Gorge (good to soft)

3.35: Five-year-olds have secured seven of the 13 renewals of ‘The Ladbroke‘ (albeit the race now carried another title) and last year’s relevant 12/1 winner Brain Power was the first horse mentioned in despatches twelve months ago.  That ‘honour’ is awarded to VERDANA BLUE from the same Nicky Henderson stable.  Form lines relating to ELGIN have worked out well, whilst the speculative call in the contest is classed as CAID LU LIN whose seven pound claimer allows Dr Richard Newland’s 20/1 chance into the Placepot equation.  It’s a tough call to potentially leave Elgin out of the mix but with Alan King’s runners still running a little hot and cold, CHARLI PARCS is preferred having run an absolute stormer in Newbury’s ‘Gerry Feilden’ event last month. All that remains for me is to wish you a wonderful Christmas though for a heads up relating to Kempton's Boxing Day card, I will be back with you tomorrow (Sunday)!
Favourite factor: 
Six of the last 18 favourites have finished in the frame, though only one (7/1) joint favourite has prevailed in the last eight years from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Elgin (good)

1/3—Air Horse One (soft)

1/2—Verdana Blue (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers who have saddled two or more winners at this corresponding (Saturday) during the last five years - who have runners at Ascot today:

5 winners—Paul Nicholls – 4 runners today

3 winners—Nick Williams – 2 runners today

2 winners—Nicky Henderson – 9 runners today

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Haydock: £87.80 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Newcastle (NH): £9,267.40 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £10.50 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 22nd December

ASCOT - DECEMBER 22

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,267.40 (6 favourites - 2 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (12.45): 11 (Whisky In The Jar), 9 (Settie Hill) & 1 (Clondaw Warrior)

Leg 2 (1.20): 2 (Divine Spear) & 1 (Exitas)

Leg 3 (1.55): 5 (Mr One More), 2 (Claimantakinforgan) & 1 (Slate Hill)

Leg 4 (2.30): 3 (Dolos), 1 (Finan’s Oscar) & 2 (Benatar)

Leg 5 (3.05): 3 (Eaton Hill) & 1 (The Mighty Don)

Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Bullionaire), 14 (Posh Trish) & 5 (Hidden Glen)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.45: Nicky Henderson has saddled four winners at this corresponding (Friday) fixture during the last five years (three winning favourites – other gold medallist was returned at 11/4) and SETTIE HILL looks to be the stable pick ahead of Darius Des Bois on this occasion.  Whether either of Nicky’s raiders will cope with the likes of WHISKY IN THE JAR and CLONDAW NATIVE remains to be seen.  This pair hail from the respective in form yards Olly Murphy and Stuart Edmunds though either way, this preferred trio will represent yours truly in the opening event on Friday.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five winners.

1.20: Six-year-old olds lead the five-year-olds 5-4 via the last 13 renewals and DIVINE SPEAR and DAREBIN should lead the relevant horses home this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference with Nicky Henderson’s Oscar gelding DIVINE SPEAR expected to build on his successful Catterick debut effort over fences at Catterick the last day.  It’s difficult to leave Phil Middleton’s progressive nine-year-old raider EXITAS out of the equation however, especially as Phil continues to send his runners out to good effect.  Phil’s ‘recent’ figures stand at 8/29, a ratio which has produced 39 points of level stake profit.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last 13 favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the field in the second event:

1/1—Exitas (good)

1.55: Four-year-olds have won eight of the last 12 renewals whereby it beggars belief that the vintage is not represented on this occasion.  Upwards and onward however by suggesting that MR ONE MORE might prove to be the value for money call given the 5/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor at the time of writing.  Harry Fry’s Asian Heights gelding has won all three assignments to date, though softer ground here might prove to be more of a problem that the calibre of his rivals, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be CLAIMANTAKINFORGAN and SLATE HILL.  That said, it’s worth noting that Nicky Henderson’s first named raider was a beaten favourite in the last race on last year’s corresponding card.
Favourite factor: Eight of the 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions (five winners) though that said, back to back 33/1 chances scored in 2002/3.

Record of the course winners in the field in the third race:

1/1—Coeur Blimey (soft)

1/1—Mr One More (good to soft)

2.30: Paul Nicholls (DOLOS) comes to the gig on a four-timer and though the four-year-old takes on two more established types in FINIAN’S OSCAR and BENATAR here, I’m obliged to enter all three horses into my Placepot permutation, as is usually the case.  Since the start of November the outsider of three has won three of seventeen races with representatives showing a very slight level stake profit, the winners having been returned at 8/1, 4/1 & 9/4.  Races in which two outsiders shared the share price are null and void according to my ruling.  DOLOS is a ‘worthy outsider’ to include in the mix accordingly. I opposed FINIAN’S OSCAR last time out because I stated that he would be “run off his feet” over the minimum trip at Sandown and that is exactly what happened.  An additional five furlongs will help here but even then, another quarter of a mile or so would have been ideal from my viewpoint.  Course winner BENATAR has far too much ability to be ruled out of the contest.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed via the last 13 renewals during which time, the biggest priced winner was returned at 13/2 during the study period.  11 market leaders have finished in the frame to date.

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Record of the course winner in the field in the fourth event:

1/1—Benatar (good

1/3—Dolos (good to soft)

3.05: Two renewals cannot constitute a ‘trend’ I know, though I am still aware that horses carrying a minimum weight of 10-13 stones have secured all six available Placepot positions to date, whilst five-year-olds have won both contests. Four horses boast ticks in both of the ‘trend boxes’, with EATON HILL and THE MIGHTY DON preferred to GOLAN FORTUNE who has had trouble in the jumping department of late.  With a clear round he would be entitled to plenty of respect but the fences at Ascot take quite a bit of negotiating.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite snared a toteplacepot position by finishing third behind horses sent off at 16/1 & 5/1, before last year’s 7/4 market leader departed the race at last flight when held.

3.40: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eleven contests and with vintage representatives responsible for 11/14 of the declarations, I am taking the trio of BULLIONAIRE, POSH TRISH and HIDDEN GLEN to land the dividend between them in a competitive finale.  Enough to say that I would not contemplate a bet from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful market leader following 11 renewals of the toteplacepot finale, albeit seven favourites have finished in the frame.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday (two or more) – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Nicky Henderson (2/19 – loss of 11 points) – 126/654 – loss of 147

3—Nick Gifford (1/3 +14) – 6/92 – loss of 3 points

3—Gary Moore (2/14 – loss of 2 points) – 23/227 – loss of 65

2—Stuart Edmunds (0/1) – 0/10

2—Harry Fry (1/7 – loss of 3 points) – 13/49 +4

2—Sue Gardner (0/1) – 1/13 +4

2—Paul Henderson (0/1) – 0/12

2—Phil Middleton (1/1 +5) – 1/4 +2

2—Neil Mullholland (0/3) – 3/27 – loss of 12

2—Seamus Mullins (0/5) – 4/76 – loss of 5

2—Paul Nicholls (1/12 – loss of 8 points) – 76/420 – loss of 130

2—Fergal O’Brien (0/1) – 5/24 – loss of 1

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 +3) – 23/195 – loss of 42

2—Ben Pauling (2/5 +5) – 3/19 – slight loss

2—Dan Skelton (0/2) – 4/45 – loss of 12

2—Colin Tizzard (0/12) – 11/115 – loss of 43

+ 10 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

47 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Uttoxeter: £552.60 - 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £82.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced