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Placepot Pointers – Saturday 25th November

HAYDOCK - NOVEMBER 25

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £459.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Dynamite Dollars) & 4 (Midnight Shadow)

Leg 2 (12.40): 4 (Belmount), 5 (Courtown Oscar) & 7 (Russe Blanc)

Leg 3 (1.15): 1 (Clan Des Obeaux), 5 (Vintage Clouds) & 4 (Born Survivor)

Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Verni), 1 (Clyne) & 3 (El Terremoto)

Leg 5 (2.25): 2 (Zarkandar), 14 (Templeross) & 3 (The Worlds End)

Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 3 (Outlander)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10:  Four-year-olds have won six of the last ten contests, with Paul Nicholls having trained one of them back in 2014. Paul has declared vintage raider DYNAMITE DOLLARS with an undeniable chance to get punters off to a flying start at the meeting, especially as Paul’s hat trick seeker seemed to make light of soft conditions the last day when sauntering to an eleven length victory.  Just how bad the ground will be is unknown in the dead of night but either way, it’s difficult to envisage the late May foal finishing out of the ‘short field’ frame.  MIDNIGHT SHADOW represents Sue Smith who has saddled two of her last eight runners to winning effect and taking into account that three of the beaten horses were returned at prices ranging between 40/1 & 150/1, the ratio is impressive enough to consider Sue’s four-year-old representative.  DELIRE D’ESTRUVAL is the other potential winner in the field according to the gospel of yours truly.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, whilst nine of the gold medallists during the period scored at a top price of 7/2.

 

12.40: I’ve talked before about media coverage and its glib comments before in general terms.  Today we’re told by the trade press that BELMOUNT has “a bit to prove regarding the trip and the ground”.  The trip remark is fair comment, but having finished ‘in the three’ four times via five assignments on heavy ground to date (winner of one of those contests), I suggest you take that comment with more than the proverbial pinch of salt!  Nigel Twiston-Davies has won with three of his last eight runners for good measure, whereby BELMOUNT (eight-year-olds have won four of the six contests) is included in the Placepot mix alongside mud loving types such as fellow vintage representative COURTOWN OSCAR and RUSSE BLANC. who will return as a slight darker shade of grey than he appears in the parade ring I’ll wager!  In contrast to the comments about Belmount, Hainan is 0/9 on soft/heavy ground but there’s not a word questioning his ability to act under today’s conditions!  Win, lose or draw the advice is simple.  Don’t take comments literally unless they are backed up by written/spoken facts, pure and simple.
Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 4/1 market leader was the first to score at the sixth attempt.  Only two of the six market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the second race on the card:

1/4—Emperor’s Choice (soft)

 

1.15:  Paul Nicholls has secured the last five renewals and there is every chance that Paul’s great record will be extended here, the trainer having offered the green light to CLAN DES OBEAUX who has recorded his biggest margin of victory on soft ground thus far via a 4/11 ratio.  The ground should not prove to be a problem for VINTAGE CLOUDS (runner up in this race twelve months ago), especially as his latest victory was gained over an extended three miles, whereby he should be staying on when others have cried enough.  BORN SURVIVOR is another contender who acts on the ground (as well as any thoroughbred can) which sets us up nicely for an interesting ‘Graduation Chase’ to witness.
Favourite factor: All six winners have scored at a top price of 7/2 to date, statistics which include two winning favourites at 11/10 and 11/4.  The other four market leaders all missed out on Placepot positions as the relevant events were of the ‘win only’ variety.

Record of the course winner in the line-up:

1/7—Vintage Clouds (soft)

 

1.50: I note that Skybet are already taking evasive action about the chance of VERNI, albeit Richard Johnson’s mount is held on the book by CLYNE, though mainly because of the five pound claimer in the saddle relating to the mud loving top weight.  Although twelve pounds higher in the weights thanks to an impressive Stratford win the last day, last year’s heavy ground winner EL TERREMOTO cannot be eliminated from my enquiries given his 11/1 quote (Betfair/Paddy Power) at the time of writing.  Certainly not from a value for money Placepot perspective, albeit I concede that this is a deeper race twelve months on.
Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have secured Placepot positions thus far, stats which include two (9/4 & 3/1) winners.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

2/3—Clyne (soft & heavy)

1/2—El Terremoto (heavy)

1/1—Chti Balko (heavy)

 

2.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals, facts which led me to short listing two of the last three (12/1 & 9/1) winners.  Last year’s race was secured by an older contender and I would not rule out a half decent effort from ZARKANDAR here at around the 20/1 mark.  A winner of two of his three races on heavy ground, Zarkandar’s race record of 11/33 stand very close inspection, notwithstanding an additional ten silver/bronze medals.  I’m having an each way bet on the old boy to minimum stakes, whilst adding TEMPLEROSS and THE WORLDS END into the Placepot mix.
Favourite factor: Seven of the twelve market leaders (via eleven renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include three winners.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/2—Silsol (good)

1/1—Zarkandar (good to soft)

1/1—The Worlds End (good to soft)

 

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3.00: Paul Nicholls has saddled six of the last eleven winners and I am a little surprised that Paul has not been tempted into taking on the market leaders here, given that there are question marks about both horses.  CUE CARD has landed up on the floor in two of his last three races, whilst BRISTOL DE MAI looked to be on a regressive route before turning back the tide the last day.  Both horses are class acts on their day, as is OUTLANDER but all three runners at this stage of their respective careers would have struggled to win this event had some of the former winners in their prime been in the field.  That said, it should make into an interesting event and presuming that Cue Card will represent poor value from a Placepot perspective, I’ll opt for the other pair, though if the eleven year-old turns back the years, nobody will be roaring him on more than yours truly, providing (of course) that one of the other pair join him in the Placepot result.
Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven warm favourites (five of them winners of their respective races at 4/6, 4/5, 10/11, 11/10 & 15/8) have reached the frame to date. The other (2/5--4/5--15/8--3/1) market leaders missed out from a Placepot perspective.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/2—Bristol De Mai (soft & heavy)

3/4—Cue Card (2 x soft & heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by 5 year stats at the track + profits/losses accrued:

5 winners—Dan Skelton (6/49 – loss of 18 points)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (14/78 – loss of 9 points)

4—Paul Nicholls (14/66 – loss of 18 points)

4—Sue Smith (10/94 +15)

3—Colin Tizzard (4/18 – loss of 2 points)

2—Peter Bowen (3/19 – loss of 4 points)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/20)

2—Harry Fry (3/13 +5)

2—Philip Hobbs (8/60 – loss of 12 points)

2—Sophie Leech (1/4 +3)

2—Donald McCain (10/77 – loss of 27 points)

2—Dr Richard Newland (2/14 +1)

2—Fergal O’Brien (1/19 – loss of 8 points)

2—Evan Williams (8/59 +42)

2—Nick Williams (3/17 +7)

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

62 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £39.10 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Huntingdon: £182.70 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £288.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £9.30 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 24th November

ASCOT - NOVEMBER 24

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £52.30 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 3 (Sternrubin), 2 (Sizing Tennessee) & 4 (Dolos)

Leg 2 (1.30): 12 (Storm Of Intrigue), 10 (Settie Hill) & 15 (Turtle Wars)

Leg 3 (2.05): 7 (Kayf Grace) & 2 (Mr One More)

Leg 4 (2.40): 3 (Kilcrea) & 5 (Thomas Brown)

Leg 5 (3.15): 1 (Bally Longford), 4 (Brandon Hill) & 2 (Marcilhac)

Leg 6 (3.50): 5 (Don Bersy), 2 (Verdana Blue) & 10 (Eddiemaurice)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: Six-year-olds have secured four of the five available toteplacepot positions thus far, statistics which include all four (5/2-Evens*-8/13-4/7*) winners. Dual course winner STERNRUBIN is very much the pick of the two vintage representatives here, though SIZING TENNESSEE looks sure to produce a decent challenge at some stage up the home straight.  The concession of eight pounds by both horses suggests that DOLOS is not entirely out of the mix either.
Favourite factor: Four of the five market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include three (4/7, 8/13 & Evens) winners.

Record of the course winner in the opening event: 

2/4—Sternrubin (good & good to soft)

 

1.30: Four-year-olds lead the five-years old 3-2 via just the five renewals to date though on the Placepot front, the advantage is reversed with the older horses having edge via stats of 8-7, with the two vintages having totally dominated the fifteen available positions to date.  Nicky Henderson saddles three horses and representing the two dominant vintages, I’m going to retire to the bar in siding with the three relevant raiders, namely STORM OF INTRIGUE, SETTLE HILL and TURTLE WARS.  It’s worth noting that Nicky has saddled seven winning at this corresponding (Friday) meeting during the last five years, three clear of his nearest pursuer (Venetia Williams).

Favourite factor: All five market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include one (5/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the second race: 

1/1—King Of Realms (good to soft)

 

2.05: Five-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, with MR ONE MORE looking to be the pick of the three relevant declarations on this occasion.  Although Harry Fry drew a blank at the two day fixture twelve months ago, the trainer saddled four winners the year before and Harry certainly has a decent prospect in MR ONE MAN. That said, Nicky Henderson has secured three of the last six renewals if this event whereby KAYF GRACE could be the answer from a win perspective.  Before you go ‘lumping on’ however, sobering stats are also in place as Nicky has saddled the beaten favourites on each of the three occasion when failing to lift the prize in recent years.
Favourite factor: Nine favourites have won via eighteen renewals, whilst 17 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions down the years.

 

2.40: KILCREA VALE was one of the beaten (Nicky Henderson trained) favourites which I referred to in the previous race though to be entirely fair to the Beneficial gelding, KILCREA VALE was coasting in front when coming down at the second last in the relevant contest.  Providing he avoids the same mistake here, Nico’s mount should go close to winning, though connections of THOMAS BROWN will justifiably be confident of a decent effort, albeit a little more juice in the ground would have been classed as a bonus. If you want to take on the market leaders in this contest, FORTUNATE GEORGE represents the in form of yard of Emma Lavelle, with the booking of Richard Johnson particularly catching the eye.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader obliged, though both of last year’s 5/2 joint favourites finished out of the frame.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/3—Thomas Brown (soft)

 

3.20: Nine of the ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 10-10, three of which were returned as favourites.  Six of the gold medallists carried 11-5 or more and I subscribe to the view that the number will be increased here, with either BALLY LONGFORD or BRANDON HILL obliging,   Eight-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals (and five of the last ten) which also brings MARCILHAC into the equation, especially as Daryl Jacob’s mount is the only Venetia Williams entry on the card, given that she has saddled four winners at the meeting during the last five years.  More juice in the ground would have made yours truly more confident from a win perspective.  Antony looks sure to run his race but with Gary Moore only having saddled one of his last 25 runners to winning effect, I’m happy to swerve the projected favourite.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have finished out of the money thus far but that said, 20 of the 27 horses to secure toteplacepot positions (including eight of the ten winners) were returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

1/3—Antony (good)

3.50: The lone course winner in the field looks like having the same (winning) conditions here whereby the chance of EDDIEMAURICE is respected, especially from a Placepot perspective.  A little money is creeping into the market relating to the Tom Symonds entry DON BERSY (take a look at the trainer stats below), whilst VERDANA BLUE completes my trio against the remaining nine contenders.
Favourite factor: Six of the last 14 clear favourites have obliged, whilst six of the last eight market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Eddiemaurice (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by five year Ascot stats + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Nicky Henderson (24/120 – loss of 33 points)

4—Philip Hobbs (14/85 – loss of 4 points)

4—Gary Moore (2/33 – loss of 18 points)

4—Colin Tizzard (8/53 +6)

3—Paul Nicholls (28/139 – loss of 13 points)

3—Harry Fry (12/44 +5)

3—Dai Williams (0/1)

2—Alan King (10/67 – loss of 14 points)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (4/54 – loss of 12 points)

2—Tom Symonds (2/8 +18)

+ 20 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

54 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Castterick: This is a new meeting on the racing calendar

Ffos Las: £36.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle A/W: £140.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 4th November

WETHERBY – NOVEMBER 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,022.60 (6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Wetherby: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 3 (Dalgany Demon), 4 (Krackatoa King) & 9 (Purcell’s Bridge)

Leg 2 (12.55): 2 (Al Shahir) & 1 (Kalashnikov)

Leg 3 (1.30): 4 (The Nipper) & 1 (Born Survivor)

Leg 4 (2.05): 1 (La Bague Au Roi) & 6 (Lady Buttons)

Leg 5 (2.40): 2 (Wholestone), 6 (Ptit Zig) & 7 (Colin’s Sister)

Leg 6 (3.15): 7 (Coneygree), 3 (Definitly Red) & 6 (Blacklion)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.20: Seven of the ten renewals in recent times have been won by horses carrying a minimum burden of 11 stones, statistics which point me in the general direction of the likes of DALGANY DEMON, KRACKATOA KING and PURCELL’S BRIDGE.  The latter named Rose Dobbin representative will have benefitted from any overnight rain (looks to have been the case via a radar reading during the dead of night), whilst noting that Rose’s ten-year-old raider has attracted some support on the exchanges.  The claiming pilot could take the weight into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap but then again, what is 16 ounces between friends?  Daklondike receives the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor:  Only four of the twelve favourites have finished in the frame during the last twelve years (via ten renewals).  The statistics include three (11/4, 7/4 & 11/8) winners, whilst the last nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2.

Record of the course winners in the opening race:

1/4--Tickenwolf (good)

1/6—Purcell’s Bridge (good soft)

1/6—Basford Ben (good to soft)

 

12.55: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen renewals (including seven of the last thirteen) whilst five-year-olds have notched eight victories in 'recent' times, with vintage representatives coming here on a five timer on this occasion.  Five-year-old AL SHAHIR is marginally preferred to four-year-old KALASHNIKOV this time around.  Overnight support is beginning to take shape for this pair over Ballymoy at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Eight favourites have won during the last 19 years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was returned at 11/1 (seven years ago).  14 of the 19 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the extended study period.

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1--Kalashnikov (god to soft)

 

1.35: It would be oh so easy for yours truly to insult your permutation limits by simply including all four runners here, enabling us to get through to the second half of the wager, had we been successful in the earlier races.  That would be wrong, whereby I am opting for the two principles in the betting market, without wishing to disregard the other pair if your bank balance is in a healthy state this morning.  For the record, THE NIPPER is marginally preferred to BORN SURVIVOR.  My main concern is how do I just justify (to myself) to include the other two talented horse in the perm?  If I did so, I would cheering them on because they will attract less units that the ‘principles’ which would be wrong because I’m firmly our camp (not just my own) in trying to win dividends for all concerned. The justification implores yours truly to offer just two selections accordingly.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Wetherby card

Record of the course winner in the third event:

1/1—Born Survivor (soft)

 

2.05: It looks as though that LADY BUTTONS might have conditions to suit her over Miss Night Owl, though whether either of them will cope with soft ground course winner LA BAGUE AU ROI is another matter entirely.  Miss Night Owl has (winning) seasonal advantage over the other pair and if Wetherby has swerved the worst of the rain I would definitely include the Tom George raider in the Placepot equation, which you should take into account when looking at ground conditions later this morning.  If the wet stuff has got into the ground however, I would prefer the ‘selected’ pair accordingly.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven favourites have secured Placepot positions (four winners) via ten renewals to date.  The last nine winners have scored at a top price of 8/1, eight of which were sent off at odds of 7/2 or less.

Record of the course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/1—La Bague Au Roi (soft)

2/4—Lady Buttons (good to soft & heavy)

 

2.40: Although I obviously offer respect to Lil Rockerfeller here, Neil King’s raider looks vulnerable at the quoted odds of 5/4 from my viewpoint.  I would imagine we might have to dip into the Doomsday Book to find the last time that Paul Nicholls only saddled one runner on this (Charlie Hall) card but that is the scenario this time around, with PTIT ZIG carrying the hopes of the Ditcheat team at Wetherby today.  It’s worth noting that Paul has won this event on the last three occasions when the yard has been represented.  WHOLESTONE is looking to make amends for the Twiston-Davies team which saddled the fallen favourite Ballyoptic in the race last year and they have found an ideal contender for such a task.  Then there is the mare COLIN’S SISTER to take into account at around the 16/1 mark, with Fergal O’Brien’s six-year-old very much in the mix from my viewpoint despite what the trade media commentator suggests this morning.  16/1 on easy ground would attract my win and place cash, should that going scenario be confirmed later this morning.

Favourite factor: Four of the last eleven renewals have been secured by favourites, whilst fifteen of the last sixteen gold medallists were returned at odds of 9/1 or less.

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3.15: CUE CARD and CONEYGREE offer fascinating rivalry here, a ‘match’ which people expected to witness last year, though the clash loses nothing for the twelve months that have passed.  That said, both horses ultimately will not have to serve their very best form up until March (possibly next month as well I guess if they take in Kempton on Boxing Day), whereas this will be the main event all season in all probability for the likes of DEFINITLY RED and the Twiston-Davies pair BLACKLION (fourth here last year) and BRISTOL DE MAI.  This trio would have to offer personal best efforts just to become involved in the finish however, whilst I can’t fancy any of the other contenders (Vieux De Lion the pick perhaps) in the field at this level. CUE CARD won this event two years ago before finding Irish Cavalier and Menorah too fit for him to handle when snaring the bronze prize twelve months ago.  If more rain than is forecast falls, the ‘courage’ of BLACKLION would have to be taken into account.  If not, CONEYGREE is arguably the call in a truly fascinating renewal of the first major prize of the season.  From a value for money perspective, I am leaving Cue Card out of the mix!  Sheer madness or a perceptive call?

Favourite factor:  Five clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last seventeen years.  Twelve of the eighteen favourites have finished in the frame during the study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Charlie Hall’ (surely one of the best Placepot finales of all time!):

1/2—Cue Card (soft)

1/2—Definitly Red (good to soft)

1/3—Blacklion (heavy)

1/1—Village Vic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Wetherby card (two or more) on Saturday with their number of winners (where relevant) at this corresponding (Charlie Hall) fixture during the last five years:

5 runners—Brian Ellison

4—Phil Kirby

4—Dan Skelton (1 winner)

4—Nigel Twiston-Davies

3—Rose Dobbin

3—Tom George (1)

3—Warren Greatrex (2)

3—Neil King (1)

3—David Pipe

3—Colin Tizzard (2)

2—Declan Carroll

2—Micky Hammond

2—Philip Hobbs (2)

2—Richard Hobson

2—Fergal O’Brien

2—Sue Smith

2—Tim Vaughan

1—Paul Nicholls (6)

+ 20 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

70 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £143.00 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Ascot: £1,230.10 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Ayr: £145.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 21st October

ASCOT - OCTOBER 21

 

It’s worth noting that on better ground twelve months ago compared to this year’s projected going, only 23.5% of the original Placepot investments were still live going into race two.  By the half way stage, just 1.2% of investors still retained a Placepot interest. Those facts should keep your feet firmly on the (soggy) ground in terms of investment!

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £230.90 (7 favourites - 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.25): 7 (Order Of St George) & 5 (Duretto)

Leg 2 (2.00): 9 (Caraggio) & 10 (Harry Angel)

Leg 3 (2.40): 2 (Bateel) & 3 (Journey)

Leg 4 (3.15): 8 (Beat The Bank), 2 (Here Comes When) & 12 (Persuasive)

Leg 5 (3.50): 9 (Cracksman), 7 (Brametot) & 2 (Highland Reel)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Firmament), 14 (Eddystone Rock), 12 (Zabeel Prince), 11 (Dark Red & 13 (White Lake)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.25: It is hardly surprising that Irish trainers have declared runners for this opening event, given that raiders from across the Irish Sea have secured four of the last six events.  That said, last year’s 4/6 market leader ORDER OF ST GEORGE finished out of the frame back in fourth place, though today’s softer ground should (I repeat should) enable Ryan More’s mount to claim a Placepot position at the very least.  We have to take the staying ability of DURETTO on trust but in a race in which too many horses meet each other on a regular basis, Andrew Balding’s raider could be the one to shake up the favourite, albeit Andrew’s 0/28 record here at Ascot this term in a sobering stat to digest. STRADIVARIUS is the clear third choice from my viewpoint.  Out of interest, 26 course winners contest the six races at Ascot today. Just to make the art of picking winners a tad more difficult!

Favourite factor: Six of the last twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via four gold medals and two of the silver variety.

Record of course winners in the opening contest:

2/4—Big Orange (good & good to firm)

2/6—Dartmouth (good to firm & good to soft)

2/5—Duretto (good to soft & soft)

1/3—Order Of St George (soft)

1/6—Skeikhzayedroad (good)

1/2—Mount Moriah (good)

1/1—Stradivarious (good to firm)

 

2.00: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals, with

HARRY ANGEL and CARAVAGGIO heading the chances of four vintage representative by a country mile this time around.  Both horses have won on this type of ground, a factor which also brings LIBRISA BREEZE into the Placepot equation, especially with Dean Ivory have saddled four of his last twelve runners to winning effect, statistics which have brought about 59 points of level stake profit.  That said, the first named pair should take plenty of kicking out of the frame from what we have witnessed thus far, though don’t be at all surprised of Dean’s five-year-old representative leads the older horses home, possibly just ahead of The Tin Man.

Favourite factor:  Eight of the sixteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the study period, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/5—Danzeno (good)

2/5—Librisa Breeze (good to firm & soft)

3/5—The Tin Man (2 x good & good to firm)

1/4—Washington DC (good to firm)

2/2—Caravaggio (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Quiet Reflection (good to soft)

 

2.40: Three-year-olds have secured five of the nine renewals thus far, with CORONET and HORSEPLAY expected to lead the juniors home on this occasion.  Proven soft ground winner BATEEL (winner of five of her eight races to date) has been saved for this race for some time by the look of things, with connections of the French raider only having to worry about last year’s highly impressive winner JOURNEY at the business end of proceedings from a win perspective, according to the gospel of yours truly at least.

Favourite factor: Five of the fourteen favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include two winners.

Record of course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Alyssa (good)

1/2—Journey (good)

1/1—Coronet (good to firm)

 

3.15: Three-year-olds have won eight of the last eleven renewals with junior representatives a shade of odds on to extend the advantage still further before the form book is consulted.  BEAT THE BANK is the (highly) progressive runner in the race given that his last three victories have been gained in Listed, Group 3 and Group 2 company hence the million dollar Question has to be asked this time around; can the Paco Boy gelding extend that sequence to snare a Group 1 event?  We will soon find out whilst not ignoring the each way chance of Andrew Balding’s stable companion HERE COMES WHEN who landed the Sussex Stakes, providing yours truly with one his best results of the year.  Connection and media types suggested that the muddling pace of that race brought about the downfall of favourite RIBCHESTER, though I believe that was only part of the reason for the defeat of the market leader that day.  Indeed, Andrew’s Danehill Dancer gelding held a fine chance as I pointed out on the day and his success has been largely overlooked in terms of the odds available for this event.  This is particularly pleasing from my viewpoint, given the differential of 2/1 and 22/1 according to recent quotes!  The ground will once again be in favour of HERE COMES WHEN who was gobbled up at 33/1 (from an each way perspective) when the original odds were offered to your columnist.  As a winner of her only race at Ascot on soft ground to date, the 28/1 quote this morning about PERSUASIVE is something of an insult to John Gosden’s Dark Angel filly.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 16 favourites have finished in the frame (seven winners), though I should remind you of the defeat of Hawk Wing back in 2002 at odds of 1/2.

Record of the course winners in the ‘Queen Elizabeth’:

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1/3—Breton Rock (soft)

2/3—Ribchester (good to firm & soft)

1/2—Churchill (good to soft)

1/1—Persuasive (soft)

 

3.50: Five-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals, with four-year-olds having secured three of the other four contests.  No four-year-olds have made the final line up this time around, though five-year-old HIGHLAND REEL is something of a ‘forgotten horse’ here, albeit I admit that faster ground would have been ideal.  That said, Aidan has hinted on more than one occasion that this Galileo representative continues to be underrated and it would not surprise me in the least if it is only the ground which beats Ryan Moore’s mount on this occasion.  John Gosden has no such worries with CRACKSMAN relating to conditions, though his hike back in trip adds interest to proceedings, whilst BRAMETOT will probably prove to be the value for money call from a Placepot perspective, given that British punters tend to ignore such individuals, certainly in terms against their actual win odds.

Favourite factor: Only three favourites have prevailed in the last fifteen years, whilst eight market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period. That all said, the two successful market leaders were New Approach and Frankel before last year’s French raider obliged.

Record of the course winners in the Champion Stakes:

1/2—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

2/4—High land Reel (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Barney Roy (good to firm)

 

4.30: Five-year-olds have won all three contests and the quartet of relevant representatives are around the 11/2 mark to land the four-timer before the form book is consulted.  The quartet are listed in order of preference as FIRMAMENT (third in this event twelve months ago), EDDYSTONE ROCK, DARK RED and WHITE LAKE.  The latter named raider represents Roger Varian, whose other runner ZABEEL PRINCE is the obvious danger to the five-year-old contingent.  It’s worth noting that Roger’s pair are his only runners on the card.

Favourite factor: All four favourites have finished out with the washing via three renewals.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Speculative Bid (good to firm)

1/2—Accidental Agent (good to soft)

2/7—Gm Hopkins (good to firm & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

12 runners—Aidan O’Brien (6/38 – loss of 8 points)

10—John Gosden (5/58 – loss of 18 points)

5—Andrew Balding (0/28)

5—Richard Hannon (5/52 +1)

4—Richard Fahey (2/38 +15)

4—David Simcock (2/24 +11)

3—David Elsworth (1/17 – loss of 5 points)

2—Ralph Beckett (2/24 – loss of 15 points)

2—Clive Cox (1/25 – loss of 19 points)

2—William Haggas (8/45 +6)

2—C Laffron-Parias (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/32 – loss of 6 points)

2—Sir Michael Stoute (3/24 – loss of 9 points)

2—Roger Varian (4/35 – loss of 20 points)

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

81 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £230.50 – 7 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 5 unplaced

Ffos Las: £32.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Market Rasen: £3,750.10 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Stratford: £383.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhmapton: £11.00 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2017

Friday's Result :

4.55 Redcar : Restive @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 : Towards rear, headway 3f out, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, stayed on to challenge when carried right inside final furlong, led towards finish, scoring by a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

1.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 2, 3yo+ contest over 2m on soft ground...

...and a 3 yr old Colt who is a former Group 1 winner and has won three times and been placed twice from 5 runs this year.

His suitability for today's task can be shown by the following achievements...

  • 3/3 going left handed, 2/2 after a short 25-45 day break
  • 2/2 at odds of 5/1 and bigger, 2/2 in fields of 12 or more
  • 1/1 at Group 2, 1/1 here at Ascot and 1/1 over 2 miles

He's trained by John Gosden, whose runners are 19/99 (19.2% SR) for 2.94pts (+2.96% ROI) over the last 30 days, of which Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners from 20 (25%) for profits of 17.03pts (+85.15%).

More long term, this trainer/jockey partnership is 44/170 (25.9% SR) for 21.7pts (+12.8% ROI) in Class 1 contests over the last four seasons, including...

  • those priced at 5/4 to 12/1 : 32/132 (24.2%) for 38.9pts (+29.5%)
  • 3 yr olds @ 27/91 (29.7%) for 28.3pts (+31.1%)
  • here at Ascot : 7/30 (23.3%) for 2.4pts (+8%)
  • and at Group 2 : 7/25 (28%) for 18.4pts (+73.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 7th October

ASCOT - OCTOBER 7

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £110.10 (6 favourites - 4 winners - 1 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Waady) & 3 (Kyllang Rock)

Leg 2 (2.25): 9 (Waldgeist) & 5 (Great Hall)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Blue Point), 6 (Second Thought) & 1 (Magical Memory)

Leg 4 (3.35): 14 (Straight Right), 17 (Mikjack), 18 (Raising Sand), 16 (Amazour) & 9 (Makzeem)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Eternally) & 10 (One Master)

Leg 6 (4.45): 5 (Shamshon), 2 (Lincoln) & 1 (Equimou)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: It’s difficult to look beyond WAADY for openers with John Gosden sending out consistent winners, having dominated this meeting in recent times.  As a trainer who absolutely loves snaring winners at top venues, John will be anxious to make up for one lost in the Steward’s room yesterday and aside from KYLLANG ROCK and (possibly) Sir Robert Cheval (the only course winner in the line up), WAADY looks to have been found an ideal opportunity by the popular trainer.  That said, money for KYLLANG ROCK would add interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: 15 of the last 16 winners have been returned at prices ranging between 9/2 and 33/1, with just one winning favourite recorded during the study period.  Six of the last 13 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions which in a competitive races such as this, is a half decent record.

Record of course winner in the opening event:

1/7—Sir Robert Cheval (good)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won seven renewals of the 'Cumberland Lodge' during the last 12 years, though this year’s main hope MIDTERM is a tough cookie to call given his inconsistency, a word you don’t often associate with runners from the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Andre Fabre has successfully raided these shores far too consistently for my liking down the years and the trainer appears to have studied the form book well enough for WALDGEIST to represent the yard to winning effect. GREAT HALL who would be such a popular winner for Mick Quinn.  Having won on both of his starts at this venue, the ground will be ideal, providing it does not dry out too much in the lead up to flag fall.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders have won during the last 12 years alongside two joint favourites, whilst all 13 gold medallists have won at a top price of 5/1.  12 of the 16 favourites secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Record of course winners in the ‘Cumberland Lodge’:

1/2—Secret Number (good to soft)

1/3—Danehill Kodiac (good to firm)

1/3—Arthenus (good to soft)

2/2—Great Hall (good to soft & soft)

 

3.00: Only a handful of three-year-olds have contested this event during the last seven years having secured four victories at 13/2, 6/1, 9/4 and 7/4, figures which are backed up by 20/1 and 8/1 silver medallists in two of the years when the vintage missed out from a win perspective.  The two relevant vintage raiders least year snared gold and bronze medals when returned at 7/4* and 10/1.  BLUE POINT is the obvious vintage representative to home in on given Charlie Appleby’s consistent form (recent ratio of 9/22) and bookmakers could be reeling by the time this race is finished if Waady and Waldgeist have ‘gone in’ before William Buick returns to the saddle to winning effect aboard the selection. Readers who like to be a little more speculative about their selections might home in on SECOND THOUGHT from an each way perspective at around the 10/1 mark this morning.  MAGICAL MEMORY is the other potential winner of the race from my viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (two winner at 9/4 & 7/4) thus far.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/2—Blue Point (good to firm)

1/4—Danzeno (good)

 

3.35: 12 of the 17 winners to date carried weights of 9-1 or less, whilst four-year-olds have secured five of the last 11 contests.  No horse in the field possesses ticks in both of the trend boxes this time around unfortunately, with MIJACK and RAISING SAND standing out from the crowd via their respective marks.  That said, there is money for STRAIGHT RIGHT at the time of writing and with 12/1 quotes in places at the time of writing, I doubt those odds will be available by the time that shops open their doors later this morning.  MAKZEEM is the only four-year-old in the field that makes any appeal. Any money for the outsider Amazour would be worth heeding from an each way perspective and there are certainly a lot worse 25/1 chances on the Ascot card today.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 20 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four successful market leaders with favourites having won the last two contests at 11/2 & 9/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card:

1/2—Speculative Bid (good to firm)

2/3—Raising Sand (good & good to soft)

 

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4.10: Three-year-olds have won 14/15 renewals of this race to date, and with 7/13 runners represented by vintage raiders this time around, the odds are around 5/6 for another three-year-old winner to score before the form book comes into play.  However, that form book suggests that the declaration of last year’s winner ETERNALLY will make life tough for the juniors this time around.  ONE MASTER is a speculative call given the nature of her Yarmouth victory, though William Haggas does not ‘tilt at windmills’ with representatives that have little to offer whereby his Fastnet Rock filly is taken to lead home the three-year-olds ahead of Irish raider XENOBIA.  Plenty of support in the ring would bring James Tate’s Urban Fox into the equation.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have obliged to date, whilst nine market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/1—Eternally (good to soft)

 

4.50:  Racing off a five pound lower mark than when returned as the successful favourite last year, the Placepot chance (at the very least) for SHAMSHON is there for all to see, especially as the Stuart Williams raider won in July, albeit four subsequent efforts have failed to live up to that standard; hence the lower mark. LINCOLN and EQUIMOU are feared most though at 9/1 in a place, SHAMSHON would be the call from a win perspective.  The reserve nomination is awarded to JUSTICE LADY.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have snared two gold medals and one of the bronze variety alongside Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/5--Shamshon (soft)

1/1—Escalating (soft)

1/5--Pettochside (soft)

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday (their number of winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years are in brackets where applicable): 

3 runners—Michael Appleby (1)

3—Andrew Balding (2)

3—Roger Charlton (1)

3—Robert Cowell

3—John Gosden (3)

3—Wlliam Haggas

3—David O’Meara (1)

3—James Tate

2—Karl Burke

2—David Elsworth (1)

2—Richard Fahey (2)

2—W T Farrell

2—Ron Harris

2—Charlie Hills

2—Ismail Mohammed

2—William Muir

2—Kevin Ryan (1)

+ 29 trainers with one entry

71 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Newmarket: £75.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Redcar: £53.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Fontwell: £59.30 – 6 favourites & 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £48.30 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot pointers – Friday 6th October

ASCOT – OCTOBER 6

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £7,215.20 (6 favourites - No winners - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (2.10): 11 (Alaadel), 4 (Shady McCoy), 10 (Esprit De Corps) & 12 (Cricklewood Green)

Leg 2 (2.35): 8 (Golden Goal), 2 (Heaven’s Guest) & 7 (Zwayyan)

Leg 3 (3.10): 5 (Nobly Born), 2 (Ekhtiyaar) & 6 (Merlin)

Leg 4 (3.45): 1 (Raheen House) & 3 (Mount Moriah)

Leg 5 (4.20): 1 (Graphite Storm) & 2 (Mukalal)

Leg 6 (4.55): 4 (Master Singer), 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (Dominating)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Four renewals to date hardly means that a trend has emerged thus far though that said, thirteen of the sixteen horses to claim toteplacepot positions to date have carried a minimum burden of nine stones. Four-year-olds come to the gig on a four-timer in the contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of ALAADEL, SHADY MCCOY and ESPRIT DE CORPS.  This trio hail from towards the top end of the market, though adding the 2015 winner CRICKLEWOOD GREEN into the Placepot mix offers us a potential outlet if ‘outsiders’ are set to rule the roost in the opening contest.  The lowest stall number to house the four winners to date is the nine box which favours the latter named trio.  Indeed, stall nine has housed three of the four winners, including CRICKLEWOOD GREEN who scored from the same stall position two years ago.

Favourite factor: Two of the five market leaders have secured Placepot positions (one 9/2 winner) via four renewals.

Record of course winners in the first race:

2/5—Scottish Glen (2 x good to firm)

1/1—Gothic Empire (good)

2/7—Moonraker (good to firm & good to soft)

2/6--Cricklewood Green (2 x good)

 

2.35: Three-year-olds landed the first three of the six events, having also posted a 1-2-3 in the race five years ago.  GOLDEN GOAL appears to be the best (relevant) entry on this occasion, especially with trainer Saeed Bin Suroor back in the habit of saddling consistent winners at what is usually his time of the year.  HEAVEN’S GUEST is rated a danger with the ground coming right for Richard Haey’s northern raider, whilst ZWAYYAN completes my trio against the other nine contenders.

Favourite factor: The six market leaders to date have snared one silver and one bronze medal (alongside toteplacepot positions) between them.

Record of course winners in the second contest on the card:

2/17—Heaven’s Guest (good to soft & soft)

1/14—Pastoral Player (good)

2/5—Taurean Star (good to firm & good to soft)

 

3.10: 14 of the 15 winners have carried weights of 9-4 or less whilst eight winners during the last decade have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  The first horse mentioned last year won the race at 8/1 for us and NOBLY BORN (John Gosden’s first runner of four on the card) could go well from a Placepot perspective at least at around the 11/1 mark this morning, not that I believe that price will last long by the time the shops open later this morning. EKHTIYAAR is on the 9-2 mark and looks set to go close, whilst Ryan Moore has been booked to ride MERLIN for the first time in the royal colours for Michael Bell.

Favourite factor: 11 of the 14 favourites have reached the frame to date, which includes six of the last eleven winners of the contest.

Record of course winners in the third event:

1/2--Kadrizzi (good to firm)

 

3.45: Eleven of the thirteen horses to secure toteplacepot positions via six renewals to date have started at a top price of 5/1 whilst the other pair were only sent off at 6/1 and 8/1.  I think the trade press comment of “failed to cut any ice” about RAHEEN HOUSE is unfair to the horse who contested what might prove to be one of the best renewals of the St Leger in many a year.  Brian Meehan’s raider made stealthy headway three furlongs from home and it was only towards the business end of the contest that he fell away, with the jockey accepting defeat at the furlong marker, allowing his mount to come home in his own time.  There is an issue over the distance I’ll agree but if this slightly shorter trip does not find out the three-year-old Sea The Stars colt, I expect Jamie Spencer’s mount to go close, even with a five pound penalty having secured the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy prize at Newmarket back in July.  MOUNT MORIAH is rated as the main threat, though any money for Zenon could prove interesting with Ryan Moore booked aboard what is seemingly John Gosden’s ‘second string’ in the contest.

Favourite factor: This Listed event (commemorating the great name of Noel Murless) was dominated by the front pair in the market in the inaugural running, albeit the two horses finished the wrong way around from a ‘favourite perspective‘.  The following 3/1 favourite evened the score against the old enemy before the 2013 marker leader was sunk without trace.  The next 7/4 favourite secured the silver medal alongside a Placepot position before the next 6/4 market leader followed suit.  That said, last year’s 6/4 jolly missed out by finishing third in a seven runner contest.  The late BBC Broadcaster Julian Wilson once asked Noel Murless if he had told Lester Piggott how to ride the horse just after the pair had teamed up to win the Royal Hunt Cup at this venue to which Noel replied in Noel Coward fashion, “My dear fellow, one does not tell Mr Piggott how to ride a horse”!  A classic retort from one of the best trainers surely ever to grace the turf.

Record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Mount Mariah (good)

 

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4.20: Five of the seven winners have carried 9-1 or more, as have 13 of the last 18 horses to have secured toteplacepot positions. Taking jockey claims into account, only two horses emerge from the ‘superior’ sector of the weights, namely GRAPHITE STORM and MUKALAL.  Andrew Balding raider BERSKHIRE BOY sits just 16 ounces adrift of the mark and is nominated as the reserve nomination accordingly.

Favourite factor: The eight favourites have secured five Placepot positions, three of which have won at 9/2-3/1-15/8.

 

4.55: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals though vintage representatives were only conspicuous by their absence twelve months ago!

Fortunately, trainers have come to their senses this time around, with MASTER SINGER, MISTER MANDURO and DOMINATING have been declared.

Favourite factor: Two winning favourites have been recorded via the last 15 renewals though on the positive side, 14 gold medallists were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less during the period.  Seven of the last eight market leaders have finished in the frame for good measure.

 

All my stats are bases on an exact science in terms of placed horses – 3rd placed horses in 5/6/7 runner events are deemed as ‘unplaced’ accordingly etc., etc.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Friday, followed by their ratios this season + level stake profit/loss figures:

4 runners—John Gosden (4/51 – loss of 21 points)

4—Ian Williams (0/18)

3—Ralph Beckett (2/20 – loss of 11 points)

3—Roger Charlton (2/17 – loss of 6 points)

3—Clive Cox (1/21 – loss of 15 points)

3—Mark Johnston (4/45 – loss of 20 points)

3—Brian Meehan (0/15)

2—Michael Bell (2/15 – loss of 3 points)

2—Karl Burke (2/7 +7)

2—Mick Channon (0/19)

2—Richard Fahey (2/34 +19)

2—James Fanshawe (1/9 – loss of 3 points)

2—John Flint (No previous runners this season)

2—William Haggas (6/40 – loss of 13 points)

2—Richard Hannon (4/49 – loss of 5 points)

2—Amanda Perrett (2/5 +38)

2—Marcus Tregoning (0/4)

2—Roger Varian (4/33 – loss of 18 points)

+21 trainers who saddle just one runner on the card

66 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Fontwell: £12.20 – 5 favourites (1 void race) – 4 winners & 1 placed

Hexham: £ 45.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 9th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £2,739.60 (7 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 5 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.20): 7 (Time Chaser) & 2 (Empress Ali)

Leg 2 (1.50): 5 (Learn By Heart), 3 (Dex Ex Bee) & 2 (Dark Acclaim)

Leg 3 (2.25): 7 (Tasleet), 1 (Brando) & 11 (Spirit Of Valour)

Leg 4 (3.00): 10 (Soie D’Leau), 12 (Mayleaf Shine) & 6 (Aleef)

Leg 5 (3.35): 6 (Morando) & 2 (Victory Bond)

Leg 6 (4.10): 3 (Jaameh),10 (Sepal) & 11 (Compton Mill)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.20: The main advice today is simply to bet for fun, with yours truly not expecting potential investors to stake much more that their minimum risks on ground today which will probably look appalling by the end of play.  The Placepot advice above is ONLY offered because of my success yesterday, never wishing to ask readers to invest more that they can afford.  For this reason I would urge you where possibly to team with a friend or two and stake accordingly on a day when fun should far outweigh risk.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that TIME CHASER and EMPRESS ALI should get us safely through to the second leg between them, with Company Asset offered up as the reserve nomination.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 5/2 favourite finished nearer last than first when missing out on a Placepot position. Horses filled the frame at 12/1-14/1-12/1, setting up a great (£2,739.60) Placepot dividend straight away!

Draw factor (ten and a half furlongs):

7-3-9 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the first race:

1/2—Reach For The Stars (soft)

2/6—Intense Tango (good to soft)

 

1.50: The main protagonists have all won on soft ground whilst the going will be even worse form what we have read overnight.  Ladbrokes have had to trim back LEARN BY HEART, the ‘magic sign’ having been out of line with the other main layers overnight.  4/1 still looks a reasonable price but that said on this ground, I’m just content to give the Haggas representative his Placepot chance alongside DEX EX BEE and DARK ACCLAIM in a race that should provide a lot of clues for next season.

Favourite factor: Nine market leaders to date (via eight renewals) in which five gold medals have been secured alongside two of the silver variety.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

1-3 (6 ran-soft)

1-3 (5 ran-good to soft)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

6-4 (5 ran-good to soft)

1-5 (6 ran-good to firm)

5-1 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-8 (5 ran-good)

1-2 (6 ran-soft)

Haydock record of runners in the second event:

1/2—Veejay (good)

 

2.25: Nine of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures in this Group 1 event, which certainly confirms my feelings that sprinting at the top level has left a lot to be desired for a number of years.  Three-year-olds have held the call during the last twelve years having claimed six gold medals, which offers all of us a semblance of hope in terms of potential stars of the future emerging in races at the ‘top level’.  Three-year-old SPIRIT OF VALUE is the each way value for money call at 25/1 with three leading firms this morning (Bet365, Hills & Paddy Power) whilst of the more likely winners of the contest, BRANDO and TASLEET make most appeal.  If Blue Point handles the ground, Charlie Appleby’s raider could also be expected to outrun his 14/1 quote, though conditions are entirely an unknown factor as far as the Shamardal colt is concerned.  I have not been right once about The Tin Man as yet because I have missed out on all his victories, whilst he has run below his best when I have supported the five-year-old.  For the record I’m against him today, so you know what to do accordingly!

Favourite factor: Six of the last 19 favourites have prevailed, though just two of the other 13 market leaders have claimed additional toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-6-7 (14 ran-soft)

5-16-6 (15 ran-good to soft)

10-18-13 (17 ran-good)

2-14-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

3-12-1 (13 ran-firm)

9-15-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

14-7-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-12-8 (14 ran-good to soft)

Race was contested at Doncaster in 2008--draw stats do not apply

6-1-7 (14 ran-good to firm)

10-3-4 (11 ran-heavy)

4-17-7 (17 ran-good)

14-5-4 (19 ran-good)

7-5-9 (10 ran-good to soft)

10-7-11 (14 ran-good to firm)

9-6-10 (12 ran-heavy)

7-12-3 (13 ran-heavy)

16-10-5 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-4-9 (13 ran-good)

9-3-6 (9 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the third contest on the card:

1/2—Brando (soft)

1/3—Magical Memory (good to firm)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good to firm)

1/1—Harry Angel (firm)

 

3.00: Three of the last seven renewals have been won by three-year-olds, whilst horses drawn high have done well under slow conditions.  Last year’s winner SOIE D’LEAU looks sure to be a popular horse having won the race twelve months ago on ground, whilst Silvestre De Sousa has been booked to ride.  7/1 is available almost right across the board, though the 11/2 quote by Bet Stars looks more realistic from my viewpoint. Stall 10/13 should be fine given the conditions (check the stats below), whereas the trio of three-year-olds have all been drawn low, the pick of which will hopefully prove to be MAYLEAF SHINE (trap six).  ALEEF looks a tad too big at 14/1 having been beaten as a market leader earlier in the week when needing the run.  Jim Crowley takes the ride and David O’Meara’s raider completes my trio against the field from stall eleven.

Favourite factor: Just three of the last nineteen renewals have been won by favourites, whilst 12 of the 2 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.  Eight of the last fifteen winners have been returned in double figures.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

12-16-10 (12 ran-soft)

5-10-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

4-6-5 (11 ran- good)

8-10-11 (10 ran-good to soft)

13-15-9 (14 ran--firm)

1-8-12 (13 ran-good to firm)

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7-2-16 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7-3 (16 ran-good to soft)

11-10-5-13 (16 ran-good to firm)

5-7-2 (10 ran-heavy)

6-8-12 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12-6 (16 ran-good)

6-16-8 (15 ran-good to soft)

5-21-10-3 (23 ran-good to firm)

6-8-7-10 (21 ran-heavy)

8-9-5-7 (16 ran-heavy)

10-8-9 (13 ran-good to firm)

13-8-9 (12 ran-good)

Haydock record of runners in the fourth race:

1/3—Soie D’Leau (soft)

2/14—Confessional (good to firm & good to soft)

1/3—Midnight Malibu (good)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals, statistics which include the lone vintage representative in 2012 (Thistle Bird) which won at 3/1.  Vintage representatives are around the 9/4 mark to extend the good run before form is taken into account, with MORANDO marginally preferred to VICTORY BOND at the time of writing.  Benbati steps down in trip but least we know he will see out the mile which is more than we know about others in the contest.

Favourite factor: Nine of the sixteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (3/1-3/1-11/4-15/8-15/8-11/10) winners during the study period. That said, search parties are still to looking for the unplaced (Richard Hannon trained) 10/11 market leader who let punters down in 2013.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-7-2 (8 ran-soft)

4-2 (7 ran-soft)

6-1 (6 ran-good)

4-10-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (7 ran-firm)

1-9-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-6-7 (8 ran-good)

1-3-4 (10 ran-soft)

9-1-8 (9 ran-good to firm)

6-3 (5 ran-heavy)

3-2-4 (11 ran-good)

5-9-1 (8 ran-good)

5-6 (5 ran-good to soft)

Haydock record of runners in the fifth event:

1/4—Mitchum Swagger (soft)

2/3—You’re Fired (good & good to soft)

1/1—Rusumaat (firm)

 

4.10: Horses carrying a minimum burden of nine stones have secured seven of the last twelve contests, whilst four-year-olds have claimed four of the last eight renewals. The ground might be pretty desperate by the time the flag falls on the last leg of our favourite wager whereby the weight trends might have to be viewed with a little more caution than usual.  Mark Johnston’s JAAMEH looks sure to give Jim Crowley another good ride this afternoon, the heavy ground course winner looking to stay on when others have cried enough.  Mark’s four-year-old has the steadier of 9-6 but with recent winners all having carried plenty of weight, JAAMEH is one of the more interesting wagers on the card at around the 15/2 mark.  Certainly, I don’t expect the 9/1 quotes by Bet365 and BetVictor to last long this morning.  Fellow four-year-old SEPAL must go close too, possibly alongside COMPTON MILL and MY REWARD.

Favourite factor: Six favourites have won to date via 16 renewals, whilst 13 of the 18 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions thus far.

Haydock record of runners in the Placepot finale:

1/2—My Reward (good to soft)

1/4—Tawdeea (soft)

1/2—Jaameh (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Haydock card (two or more) on Saturday – followed by their ratios and profit/loss figures over the first two days of the meeting:

7 runners—Mark Johnston (0/2)

6—Tim Easterby (0/5)

4—Richard Fahey (1/8 – loss of 3 points)

4—Kevin Ryan (0/3)

3—John Gosden

3—William Haggas (0/2)

3—David O’Meara (0/4)

2—Charlie Appleby (0/1)

2—Andrew Balding (1/1 +4)

2—Michael Bell

2—Karl Burke (0/5)

2—Robert Cowell

2—Michael Dods

2—Iain Jardine (0/2)

2—Aidan O’Brien

+ 27 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £373.30 – 6 favourites – No winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Thirsk: £79.90 – 6 favourites – No winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Stratford: £134.30 – 6 favourites – 2 winners & 4 unplaced

Kempton: £53.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £73.50 – 7 favourites – 4 winners & 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 8th September

HAYDOCK - SEPTEMBER 8

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £289.00 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 3 (Cavatina) & 1 (Amazing Michele)

Leg 2 (2.25): 14 (Pulitzer) & 6 (Forever In Love)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Manshood), 3 (Hyperfocus) & 4 (Russian Realm)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Musharrif), 8 (Elysian Flyer) & 1 (Rasheeq)

Leg 5 (4.10): 3 (Calder Prince), 6 (Noble Peace) & 7 (My Amigo)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Always Resolute), 2 (High On Light) & 1 (Intense Tango)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: AMAZING MICHELE has been the one for some money overnight given the (seemingly inevitable) withdrawal from what was a ‘dead eight’ event.  Alan Bailey is not particularly noted for his two-year-old winners, though with four of his last nine runners having won, the chance for FLEETING FREEDOM is also respected.  That said, CAVATINA ran well at the first time of asking at Kempton and any amount of usual progress (whatever that is in the juvenile sector) should enable the William Haggas raider to at least snare one of the two available Placepot positions.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the Haydock card are novice events, whereby no history to the contests is in place.

 

2.25: The 11/4 trade press about the chance of Sir Michael Stoute’s Dutch Art filly FOREVER IN LOVE looks fanciful with 15/8 likely to be nearer the returned starting price from my viewpoint.  The dual beaten favourite (from as many assignments thus far) will be expected to score here in the Cheveley Park colours and if the difference between the two prices mentioned in the open sentence don’t look too far removed from each other, the differential is roughly the same as a horse being back in from 9/1 to 9/2.  Hugo Palmer scored with both runners at the track yesterday and stable representative PULITZER appears to be a live threat to Richard Kingscote’s mount.

Favourite factor: The first two races on the Haydock card are novice events, whereby no history to the contests is in place.

 

3.00: Nine of the ten winners have carried 9-2 or more to victory thus far, whilst four-year-olds have claimed five of the last eight contests.  Vintage representatives have also secured 13 of the last 20 available toteplacepot positions whereby MANSHOOD (the only runner with ticks in both of the trend boxes) is the first name on the team sheet.  Paul Midgley was (unusually) not represented at Haydock yesterday but comes to the races with three chances today and MANSHOOD should reach the frame for ‘Potters’.  Definite threats lurk in the murky waters however, the pick of which should prove to be stable companion RUSSIAN REALM (especially if the ground softens up) and Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old raider HYPERFOCUS.

Favourite factor: Five of the twelve favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners) though rogue gold medallists have reared their ugly (25/1-14/1-9/1) heads along the way.

Course winners in the third race:

1/2—Russian Realm (soft)

1/3—Englishman (soft)

1/3—Cosmic Chatter (good to firm)

 

3.35: All eight winners have carried a maximum weight of 9-3, whilst four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the last four renewals. No four-year-old figures in the ‘superior’ weight sector this time, whilst the pair of the three relevant five-year-old raiders appear to be MUSHARRIF and ELYSIAN FLYER.  Rachel Richardson aids and abets the chance of the top weight RASHEEQ given that Tim Easterby’s four-year-old representative now (potentially) carries just 16 ounces over the weight barrier thanks to Rachel’s claim, the pilot continuing to represent great value for her three pound allowance.

Favourite factor: Four of the nine favourites (via eight renewals) have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include two successful market leaders.

Course winners in the fourth contest on the card:

1/3—Major Pusey (good to firm)

1/1—Four Dragons (good)

 

4.10: Four and five-year-olds have (equally) shared the six renewals to date, with five of the six gold medallists have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Tom Dascombe snared a 22/1 double at the course yesterday whilst one of his other two runners on the card was only two lengths adrift of adding another 95 points to that return.  Tom has five chances to enhance his good record at Haydock this afternoon, the best of which could prove to be CALDER PRINCE with the ground seemingly coming right for the four-year-old Dark Angel gelding.  That said, Henry Candy also continues to send out regular winners just now, whereby NOBLE PEACE representative a definite threat.  Providing not too much more falls up the M6 corridor today, MY AMIGO could outrun his 8/1 quote (right across the board) if looking race fit in the parade ring following a five month break from the racecourse.

Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (including winners at 7/2, 7/2 & 2/1), though search parties are still out looking for the other 5/1 market leader.

Course winners in the fifth event:

2/5—Calder Prince (good & soft)

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4.45: Four-year-olds have won three of the last four renewals of the Placepot finale and HIGH ON LIGHT has the best chance of the quartet of relevant declarations this time around.  David Barron has retained the services of Rachel Richardson to negate the majority of the four pound hike in the weights and the bandwagon looks set to go close again on this grade/company.  Fellow course and distance winners INTENSE TANGO and ALWAYS RESOLUTE boast similar claims according to the gospel of yours truly and but for having been away yesterday, I think I would have latched on to Brian Ellison’s 11/2 winner on Thursday.  Brian saddles ALWAYS RESOLUTE here having gone on the (rare) missing list at Haydock yesterday when his only runner of the day scored under the NH code at Sedgefield.  I guess it’s worth noting that Brian’s only other runner on the card runs off bottom weight in this event, namely Nordic Combined.  A (minimum stake) saver might be worth considering on Josephine Gordon’s mount, especially as the only victory gained to date by the Haafhd gelding was recorded under soft conditions.

Favourite factor: Four of the six market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include two (7/2 & 3/1) winners.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/5—Intense Tango (good & soft)

1/1—High On Light (good to soft)

2/4—Always Resolute (good & good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Haydock card on Friday, followed by their ratios at the track on Thursday + level stakes profits where applicable:

5 runners—Karl Burke (No runners at Haydock yesterday)

5—Tom Dascombe (2/4 + 18)

5—Richard Fahey (0/3)

3—David Barron (No runners)

3—Ruth Carr (No runners)

3—Tim Easterby (0/2)

3—Paul Midgley (No runners)

2—Robyn Brisland (No runners)

2—Brian Ellison (No runners)

2—James Fanshawe (No runners)

2—Roger Fell (0/2)

2—Charlie Fellowes (0/1)

2—William Haggas (No runners)

2—Michael Mullineaux (0/1)

2—Hugo Palmer (2/2 +6)

2—Derek Shaw (No runners)

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £250.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Musselburgh: £46.50 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £26.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £3,712.50 – Only one (6/4*) in the frame (No winners)

 

 

Stat of the Day, 8th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

4.35 Haydock : Azari @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 : Dwelt, in rear, headway 3f out on inner, soon chased winner, kept on and always well held, beaten by Steve's Race of the Day selection by two lengths...

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.15 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

Here we have an in-form horse with some relevant positive race stats representing a yard also in good touch who do well at this track.

Need numbers?

OK, let's go!

We've a 3 yr old gelding with three wins in his last six outings, including a win over this 1m trip last time out, on soft ground 27 days ago. He has won 4 of his 13 starts to date, which is a decent return for mid-grade horses, but the following suggest this is his kind of race, as his record includes...

  • 3 wins and a place from 6 over the 1m trip
  • 4 wins and a place when sent off at 4/1 and shorter
  • 3 wins from 5 after a break of 2 to 4 weeks
  • a win and a place from 2 runs on good to soft ground
  • he won his only previous race in this grade
  • he won his only previous race under Silvestre de Sousa
  • and he made the frame on his only other visit to this track, which was at a higher grade than today

And the trainer?

Michael Bell has saddled up 5 winners from 21 runners over the last fortnight, so things are going pretty well there, whilst since 2008 his record here at Ascot stands at 20 from 174 (11.5% SR) for profits of 60pts at an ROI of 34.5% : these are decent numbers, of course, but in the context of this particular challenge...

  • his male runners are 16/137 (11.7%) for 63.7pts (+46.5%)
  • in non-handicaps : 8/66 (12.1%) for 56.7pts (+85.9%)
  • over the last four seasons : 8/51 (15.7%) for 70.2pts (+137.7%)
  • LTO winners are 10/48 (20.8%) for 22.9pts (+47.7%)
  • and those coming off a break of 21-30 days are 9/46 (19.6%) for 26.4pts (+57.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fire Brigade @ 11/4 BOG, which was available from over half a dozen firms at 5.55pm on Thursday, so the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.15 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 12th August

HAYDOCK - AUGUST 12

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £383.90 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Haydock: 

Leg 1 (1.55): 7 (Zubayr), 6 (William Hunter), 10 (Capanova) & 12 (Shamrokh)

Leg 2 (2.30): 12 (Laraaib), 11 (Frankuus) & 10 (Euginio)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Just Hiss), 8 (Briyouni) & 3 (Calder Prince)

Leg 4 (3.35): 9 (Sea Of Grace) & 7 (Mittens)

Leg 5 (4.05): 1 (Fire Brigade) & 2 (Glorious Forever)

Leg 6 (4.35): 7 (Lathom), 6 (Russian Realm) & 2 (Toofi)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.55: The three horses for overnight money are ZUBAYR, WILLIAM HUNTER and SHAMROKH which will do for yours truly in a race which cuts me to the quick for reasons stated below.  That said, I have just completed the course stats (see below)whereby I am adding CAPANOVOA into the mix.  As stated before, if tracks will entertain races like this (I am not against amateur rider events), why don’t they leave them until the last race when friends and family of the connections have all evening to talk about their experiences without having to be rushed away because of the next race on the card.  That would also take the race out of the Placepot equation which would surely please one and all!

Favourite factor: The inaugural 3/1 favourite finished out of the frame last year.  This looks another of the nonsensical 'Shergar Cup' style of race which I have evaded for so many years now.  As stated before, I cannot hold with the hypocracy of the BHA who hold so dear to them the finer points of the rules of the sport and then entertain 'team games' at Ascot!  Out of interest, you might note that every favourite at Ascot in 2015 finished out of the frame in the Placepot events.  Only seven favourites have won at the Ascot meeting via 30 races in the last five years during which time, 25 different trainers have saddled winners.  What chance of punters got?  I’m willing to bet if other tracks sought to promote ‘team games’ at their meetings, the BHA would not allow them to do so.  That is not the case at Ascot of course, where the ‘bowler hat’ brigade have an entirely different set of rules.  Thanks for letting me get that off my chest!

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

2/4—Intense Tango (good & good to soft)

1/2—Tapis Libre (good to firm)

4/6—Capanova (2 x good to firm & 2 x good to soft)

1/6—Lord Franklin (good)

 

2.30: Three-year-olds have won eleven of the last eighteen renewals (one of only two relevant raiders won at 10/1 last year), yet junior raiders were conspicuous by their absence six years ago and only the runner up represented the vintage four years back.  Four relevant entries have been made this time around thankfully, the pick of which appear to be LARAAIB, FRANKUUS and EUGINIO.  Unbeaten LARAAIB could yet be anything as the Owen Burrows representative seeks a fourth straight success.   Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to back the other junior raider, namely Larchmont Lad!

Favourite factor:  Six clear market leaders and two joint favourites have scored via nineteen renewals.  15 of the 21 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the second contest: 

1/5--Gabrial (firm)

2/2--Frankuus (good to firm & soft)

1/1—Laraaib (good to firm)

 

3.00: Four-year-olds have won the last six (and seven of the last eight) renewals. It defied belief accordingly that just two relevant raiders lined up in 2015 though it made little difference as another 4/1 was added to the tally, followed by a 15/2 gold medallist which was short listed by yours truly.  44% of this year's field (4/9) is made up of four-year-olds though several others are ahead of the relevant quartet in the market.  Listed in marginal order of preference, JUST HISS, BRIYOUNI and CALDER PRINCE should get us through to second half of our favourite bet, if we had made it through this tough card to race three.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fifteen favourites during the last twelve years have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include five successful markets leaders, whilst a rogue 66/1 chance came to the aid of bookmakers back in 2009.

Record of course winners in the third race on the card:

2/4—Calder Prince (Good to firm & soft)

 

3.35: Three-year-olds have held the edge in this race to date, maintaining the tradition of successful junior raiders on this card down the years in general terms. Vintage representatives are 4/5 to extend the trend before the form book is consulted this time around, with SEA OF GRACE and MITTENS being the pick of the five relevant entries from my viewpoint.  SEA OF GRACE would have to be the choice at the time of writing, though you might care to take a look at the record of Sir Michael Stoute (Mittens) at the foot of the column.

Favourite factor:  We still await the first successful favourite, the six winners being returned at 12/1-12/1-11/1--10/1--13/2--9/2 thus far.  Two of the seven market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Lincoln Rocks (good to firm)

 

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4.05: You can ignore the 11/4 quote in the trade press regarding the chance of FIRE BRIGADE in this event, whereby potential investors might be fortunate to obtain 13/8 this morning.  The difference in odds might not sound that great, though the differential in terms of percentages is the same as a horse being back down from 8/1 to 7/2.   Michael Bell’s course and distance winner looks to have a second to none opportunity in this grade/company. GLORIOUS FOREVER is given another chance with the headgear put back on after some slight disappointing efforts of late.

Favourite factor:  Both (2/1 & 4/6) market leaders have obliged to date.

Record of course winners in the penultimate leg of our favourite wager:

1/2—Fire Brigade (good to firm)

2/6--Sidewinder (2 x good to firm)

1/4—Wigan Warrior (good)

 

4.35: The last ten winners of the toteplacepot finale have carried a minimum weight of 9-1, statistics which eliminate the bottom pair in the handicap.  David O’Meara is finally piecing his season together after an appalling run of results by David’s high standards.  The popular handler had reached a negative 1/74 ratio earlier in the week before saddling a pair of winners from five runners at one stage, whereby the chance of LATHOM is respected alongside other each way types such as RUSSIAN REALM and TOOFI.

Favourite factor:  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have prevailed during the last decade.  Nine of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/7—Signore Piccolo (good)

1/2—Clear Spring (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two of more) on the Haydock card on Saturday – followed by the starting prices of their winners at this corresponding meeting during the last five years:

5 runners—Tom Dascombe (1 winner at 6/1)

5—David O’Meara (1 at 15/2)

4—Richard Fahey (1 at 13/2)

4—Richard Hannon

3—Karl Burke

3—Tom Easterby

3—Sir Michael Stoute (5 at 4/1, 7/2, 7/2, 5/2* & 5/2*)

2—Ruth Carr

2—David C Griffiths

2—Brian Meehan

2—Paul Midgley

2—Patrick Morris

2—Derek Shaw

2—Lisa Williamson

+ 33 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

74 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £81.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Ayr: £361.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £106.80 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced

Newmarket: £129.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 unplaced

Redcar: £577.60 – 6 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 29th July

ASCOT - JULY 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £341.30 (6 favourites - 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Ascot: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Spring Cosmos) & 5 (Nyaleti)

Leg 2 (2.25): 2 (Masham Star), 4 (Naval Warfare), 6 (Pealer) & 5 (Mustarrid)

Leg 3 (3.00): 10 (Fastnet Tempest), 4 (Remarkable) & 5 (Above The Rest)

Leg 4 (3.35): 10 (Enable) & 2 (Highland Reel)

Leg 5 (4.10): 6 (Tigre Du Terre) & 3 (Being There)

Leg 6 (4.45): 8 (Imperial State), 13 (Tommy G), 2 (Supersta) & 5 (Georgian Bay)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: NYALETI looks a tad short around the 7/4 mark at the time of writing, albeit Mark Johnston’s filly will be included in my Placepot mix alongside SPRING COSMOS and (possibly) DANCE DIVA.  If I had to have a bet from a win perspective, SPRING COSMOS would have to be the value for money call at 5/1 even though Indicia let the form down to a fashion at this venue yesterday.  SPRING COSMOS still holds an entry for Wednesday’s Goodwood Group 3 ‘Molecomb’ event, whereby you should keep an eye on the non-runners board in case Charlie Appleby believes the ground is too soft when he arrives at the track today.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won during the last fourteen years alongside two joint favourites.  Ten of the last eleven winners have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

2.25: Five of the six winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-8 which eliminates half the field (6/12) if you believe in trends.  MASHAM STAR appeals as one of the better each way bets on the day, especially as Mark Johnston has won with two 33/1 chance on this card in recent years, albeit not in this particular race.  MASHAM STAR handles the ground and runs off the same mark as when runner up two starts ago in the same grade.  Others to consider include NAVAL WARFARE, PEALER and MUSTARRID who is weighted to beat the favourite for this event (Century Dream) according to my abacus.

Favourite factor: Two of the six favourites have finished in the frame by securing gold and silver medals.

 

3.00: I made a strong case for 33/1 winner Galician four years ago, whilst Heavy Metal was the first horse mentioned in dispatches at the same price twelve months on! Four-year-olds have won 12 of the last 17 renewals, whilst 15 of the last 19 winners have scored at 9/1 or more.  11 of the last 13 gold medallists have carried weights of 8-9 or more and adding all the stats and facts together produces a short list of FASTNET TEMPEST, REMARKABLE and ABOVE THE REST.

Favourite factor: Just one clear market leader and one joint favourites have won via eighteen renewals to date, whilst just five of the twenty three market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third contest:

1/8—Buckstay (good)

1/3—Yuften (good)

1/11—Squats (good to firm)

1/3—Fastnet Tempest (good to firm)

2/15—Heaven’s Guest (soft & good to soft)

2/14—Jack Dexter (good to soft & soft)

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won eleven renewals during the last fourteen years in the ‘King George‘, the other three contests having been secured by three-year-olds.  Six consecutive favourites scored between 2004 and 2009, though there was a gap of six years until the next market leader obliged twelve months ago.  There is no doubting that dual Oaks winner ENABLE (by an aggregate of ten and a half lengths) deserves her place at the head of the betting though once again. HIGHLAND REEL is being offered at a price which defies belief for a horse which has answered so many questions against him positively.  Granted, conditions today might stop Ryan Moore’s mount from actually winning but there will be tens of 5/1 chances today that have less chance of scoring that Aidan O’Brien’s fine servant.  A similar (slightly shorter) price is available about John Gosden’s ‘second string’ JACK HOBBS but by comparison to the Aidan’s raider, the 2015 Irish Derby winner still has much to prove, albeit this surface will suit compared to when ‘Jack’ contested a Royal Ascot assignment five weeks ago.  Any further rain before flag fall (which is entirely possible) might shorten up the current 28/1 price about MY DREAM BOAT.  If the wet stuff does not evolve, BENBATI could outrun his 16/1 price tag.

Favourite factor: Ten of the last sixteen favourites have prevailed, whilst the last eighteen gold medallists have emerged via the front five in the betting.

Record of course winners in the 'King George':

1/1—Desert Encounter (good to firm)

2/3—Highland Reel (2 x good to form)

1/1—Idaho (good to firm)

1/2—My Dream Boat (soft)

1/1—Benbati (good to firm)

 

4.10: ‘Team Hannon‘ have won two of the last five renewals and there is every chance that course and distance winner TIGRE DU TERRE can improve the ratio further still.  A facile winner at the first time of asking on good ground, it could be argued that only soft conditions might stop Richard’s Le Havre colt from following up successfully.  By comparison, the victory of BEING THERE at the second time of asking was hardly convincing though time and again, proven seven furlong winners make a mockery of the form book.

Favourite factor: Six of the twelve favourites have finished nearer last than first to date.  That said, four of the last eight market leaders have obliged.

Record of course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/1—Tigre Du Terre (good)

 

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4.45: Four-year-olds have won 10 of the last 18 contests, whilst you should always look out for pilots which ride winners of these races (for lady riders) on a regular basis. Putting those stats and facts together produces a short list of IMPERIAL STATE, TOMMY G, SUPERSTA and GEORGIAN BAY.  The reserve nomination is awarded to Majestic Moon.  If you are still in trouble after the Placepot races, I can pass on an each way word for Zambeasy in the last race at Ascot today (5.20) at around the 16/1 mark, especially as trainer Philip Hide has won with three of his last five runners.  Zambeasy acts under these conditions for good measure.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last 22 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions to date (one winner), whilst the returned prices of winners include those at 33/1-33/1-20/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-12/1-11/1 during the study period.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/9—Majestic Moon (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ascot card on Saturday – followed by relevant winning prices for trainers who have saddled winners on this corresponding (‘King George’) card during the last five years:

7 runners—Richard Fahey (1 winner at 7/1)

6—John Gosden (1 winner at 7/2)

4—Charlie Appleby

4—William Haggas (2 winners at 10/1 & 15/8*)

4—Mark Johnston (4 winners at 33/1, 33/1, 2/1* & 7/4*)

3—Andrew Balding

3—Karl Burke

3—Jim Goldie

3—David O’Meara

3—Kevin Ryan

3—Ian Williams (1 winner at 14/1)

2—Michael Appleby

2—George Baker

2—David Barron

2—Roger Charlton (1 winner at 4/6*)

2—Richard Hannon (1 winner at 7/4)

2—Gary Moore

2—Aidan O’Brien (1 winner at 13/8*)

2—George Scott

2—Saeed Bin Suroor

Trainers who have 1 runner at the meeting who have saddled winners during the last five years:

1—Sir Michael Stoute (2 winners at 8/1 & 3/1)

1—Clive Cox (2/1*)

1—Simon Crisford (13/8*)

1—Michael Mullineaux (16/1)

+ 29 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

94 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chester: £297.70 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £256.00 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £33.70 – 9 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

York: £265.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Salisbury: £24.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £174.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday July 28th

ASCOT - JULY 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £56.90 (6 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Ascot:

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Expressly), 11 (Stream Song) & 4 (Indicia)

Leg 2 (2.10): 6 (Mythical Magic) & 8 (Strategist)

Leg 3 (2.45): 7 (Mister Manduro) & 8 (UAE King)

Leg 4 (3.20): 6 (Mittens), 3 (Nathra) & 7 (On Her Toes)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Red Galileo), 6 (Tawddea) & 1 (Galapiat)

Leg 6 (4.25): 9 (Soie D’Leau), 3 (Yalta), 10 Shamshon) & 11 (Coofitch)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: INDICIA will be the first name on many lips this morning, though bookmakers have made wonderful profits down the years when punters plunge on juveniles who have finished second on their debuts, only to get turned over as favourites next time out.  With EXPRESSIY and (arguably) JOUSY having also been declared however, it is debatable if INDICIA will be returned as the market leader in a typically warm Ascot two-year-old contest.  STREAM SONG also catches the eye at an each way price at the foot of the list in the familiar George Strawbridge (white with a green hoop) colours.

Favourite factor: This is a new race ion the Ascot card via the ‘novice status’ of races brought in by the BHA around 18 months ago.

 

2.10: Richard Hannon comes to the gig on a hat trick and given the amount of juveniles in his yard to choose from, we can suppose that MAGHWEER is among the top ranked two-year-old at base camp this season.  I’ve had to stop in my tracks as Richard’s raider has been scratched from the contest as I write.  No doubt Maghweer is one to keep an eye on.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that MYTHICAL MAGIC and STRATEGIST are now probably the safest options from a Placepot viewpoint given that we have a ‘short field’ to assess.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way & Placepot perspectives.

Favourite factor: Last year’s wording before the 5/2 favourite obliged; Although winning favourites are conspicuous by their absence during the last 15 years, the relevant winners ranged in odds between 5/2 and 10/1.

 

2.45: Three-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this Class 2 (Brown Jack) handicap, yet no vintage representatives turned up for the gig last year!  Thankfully Roger Varian (UAE KING) and Mark Johnston (MISTER MANDURO) are wise to the stats this time around and this pair are expected to duel all the way to the line from my viewpoint.  Mark Johnston has saddled no less than ten winners at this two day fixture during the last five years whereby from a value for money perspective at least, I’m taking MISTER MANDURO to marginally win the day.

Favourite factor: 13 of the last 14 winners of the ‘Brown Jack’ have been returned at odds of 8/1 or less, statistics which include seven successful favourites.

 

3.20: Three-year-olds have now secured 11 of the last 15 renewals, whilst four-year-olds have secured three of the last six contests. Little wonder then that two of the three-year-olds have attract plenty of each way support overnight, namely the progressive pair MITTENS and ON HER TOES.  Both horses are guaranteed places in my Placepot mix, though the softened ground might have gone against Tisbutadream who would otherwise have been added into the mix.  John Gosden’s NATHRA is elevated into the equation accordingly.  A winner on soft and good to soft ground on both of her previous seasonal debut assignments, Frankie’s mount would take the beating if cherry ripe for the task in hand.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the last 15 years, whilst 12 of the 15 winners were sent off at 11/2 or less.

Course winners in the fourth event:

1/1—Mittens (good)

1/2—Tisbutadream (good to firm)

 

3.55: I can report overnight win and place money for RED GALILEO which does not come as a great surprise with the Saeed Bin Suroor stable having hit top form recently, with nine of their last 21 runners having been saddled to winning effect.  Others for the melting pot include GALAPIAT and TAWDEEA, given that any value in Appeared has long since disappeared, if you’ll pardon the play on words.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/11 market finished last of six runners (beaten 23 lengths), with favourite backers hoping for a distinctly better run for their money on this occasion.

Course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Appeared (good to firm)

1/3—King Bolete (goot to fim)

1/4—Sennockian Star (good)

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4.25:  Five-year-olds secured the first five places in the 2012 contest before vintage representatives claimed a 1-2-4 three years ago at odds of 10/1-7/1**-12/1, five-year-olds having won four of the last six previous renewals before 2015 when the vintage was not represented.  Only two five-year-olds (33/1 & 25/1 chances) lined up on another occasion, before vintage representatives landed a 1-3-4 twelve months ago.  Unbelievably (I don’t believe it!) just one relevant horse has been declared this time around, with SOIE D’LEAU being the first name on the team sheet.  Ryan Moore boasts a 33% strike rate for Mark Johnston this season which can only aid and abet the cause of YALTA.  The recent Newmarket winner SHAMSHON finished fourth last year off a six pound higher mark, whilst COOLFITCH cannot be left out of the equations with conditions to suit.

Favourite factor: The previous 11 favourites had all been beaten (winners at 66/1-50/1-20/1-20/1-16/1-14/1-10/1-9/1-8/1-7/1-13/2) before a successful 4/1 market leader prevailed six years ago.  The race reverted to type in 2012 when a 14/1 chance led home horses sent off at 9/1 and 33/1, whilst the last four winners have scored at 14/1-10/1-8/1-5/1.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have finished out of the frame.

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Shamson (soft)

1/13—Jack Dexter (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Ascot card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Mark Johnston (3/30 – loss of 8 points)

4—David Elsworth (1/8 – Profit of 4 points)

4—William Haggas (4/29 – loss of 12 points)

4—Roger Varian (2/26 – loss of 16 points)

3—John Gosden (2/38 – loss of 21 points)

3—Richard Hannon (4/40 – Profit of 4 points)

3—Sir Michael Stoute (2/17 – loss of 10 points)

2—Charlie Appleby (4/28 – Profit of 15 points)

2—Andrew Balding (0/13)

2—Robert Cowell (0/7)

2—Tim Easterby (1/2 – Profit of 24 points)

2—Gay Kelleway (0/5)

2—William Knight (No previous runners)

2—David O’Meara (1/19 – Profit of 7 points)

2—Hugo Palmer (1/9 – loss of 6 points)

2—Derek Shaw (No Previous runners)

+ 28 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Chepstow: £306.20 – 7 Favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

Newmarket: £39.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Thirsk: £24.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

York: £65.60 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplced

Uttoxeter: £426.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 28th July 2017

Thursday's Result :

7.05 Newbury : Pilgrims Treasure @ 7/2 BOG 6th at 7/2 Pushed along briefly after start, held up in touch on inside, eased out over 3f out, headway chasing leaders soon after, hung left over 2f out, ridden inside final 2f, soon beaten.

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.55 Ascot...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Appeared @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding has 2 wins and 4 places from his last 6 runs and was a winner two starts ago over this course and distance, before finishing second LTO five weeks ago, also over C&D.

There was no disgrace in getting beaten at that Royal Ascot race, as not only did he beat 17 other rivals in that Class 2 race, but the winner has since gone on to land a Listed contest by a wider margin than the defeat suffered by Appeared.

His trainer Roger Varian is in prime form at the moment, having saddled 7 winners from just 19 runners (36.8% SR) in the last 9 days, whilst throughout his career his Flat handicappers priced at 13/2 or shorter are 154/637 (24.2% SR) for 52.8pts (+8.3% ROI).

Now, whilst 8.3% ROI isn't as high as we normally lead with on SotD, it's actually a decent return from blanket betting over 600 runners with no filters other than price. If we do apply some relevant and logical filters, then the numbers become far more attractive, such as...

  • those finishing 2nd to 7th LTO are 99/369 (26.8%) for 72.5pts (+19.6%)
  • those racing after a break of 21-75 days are 80/300 (26.7%) for 62.5pts (+20.8%)
  • those racing over 8.5 to 12.5 furlongs are 77/286 (26.9%) for 91pts (+31.8%)
  • in the months of June/July : 75/277 (27.1%) for 46.8pts (+16.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 25/127 (19.7%) for 7.6pts (+6%)
  • 5 yr olds are 11/40 (27.5%) for 17.6pts (+43.9%)
  • and those ridden by the excellent Silvestre de Sousa are 8/20 (40%) for 5pts (+25%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Appeared @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.45pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ascot...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday July 15

NEWMARKET - JULY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £29.00 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 11 (Sizzling) & 7 (Poetic Charm)

Leg 2 (2.15): 7 (Cheval Blanche), 8 (Tropical Rock) & 3 (Gymnaste)

Leg 3 (2.50): 5 (City Of Joy), 1 (Masham Star) & 7 (Maths Prize)

Leg 4 (3.25): 5 (Bossy Guest), 2 (Buckstay), 3 (Tashweeq), 14 (Sir Dancealot) & 15 (Withernsea)

Leg 5 (4.00): 6 (Gustav Klimt) & 3 (Etefaaq)

Leg 6 (4.35): 8 (Caravaggio) & 7 (The Tin Man)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.45: Aidan O’Brien’s record of 2/4 at the meeting this week is backed up by a 10/1 runner up which points the way to SIZZLING in the opening event, a contest Aidan won two years ago.  Only Charlie Appleby has saddled more winners on the July course this week (3/12 – see all the stats below) whereby his Dubawi filly POETIC CHARM is taken as the principle danger, especially as the filly holds an entry in an Irish Group 1 race later in the year.

Favourite factor: The three favourites to date have secured two gold medals and one of the silver variety whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

2.15: 18 of the last 20 winners of this contest have carried weights of 9-1 or less and the trio to home in on from this sector of the weights (9/10 qualify) from my viewpoint are CHEVAL BLANCHE, TROPICAL ROCK and GYMNASTE.  That said, I’m sure there will be worse outsiders on the card than MARIE OF LYON who looks overpriced at around 18/1 at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won this race during the last 20 years, whilst 14/26 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

2.50: Nine of the last eleven winners have carried 9-1 or more and it's worth noting that just 16 'qualifiers' have run in total via the last four contests to produce decent priced winners at 9/1, 8/1 & 11/2.  There are only five horses to choose from this time around, with the pin coming down on the side of CITY OF JOY, MASHAM STAR and EXECUTIVE FORCE via the relevant quintet.  Of the horses below the ‘superior weight barrier’, MATHS PRIZE appears to be the value for money option.

Favourite factor: Three favourites have prevailed during the last eighteen years, whilst eleven market leaders secured toteplacepot positions during the study period.

 

3.25: The last nine winners carried a minimum weight of nine stones to victory, as have 21 of the last 23 horses to have secured Placepot positions.  Although this scenario ‘only‘ eliminates nine (possibly eleven via claims) of the 20 declarations, all assistance is required in trying to track down the winner of the Bunbury Cup, as ever was the case.  Richard Fahey has saddled three of the last six winners, whilst five-year-olds have 'dominated' of late, snaring four of the last six contests. My quartet against the field take into account the facts and stats are BOSSY GUEST, BUCKSTAY (joint favourite for race last year), TASHWEEQ and WITHERNSEA in the Placepot mix.  That said, I will probably have an each way saver (single) on VON BLUCHER at 33/1 (thereabouts), albeit the ex-John Gosden raider carries sixteen ounces less than what the weight trend recommends.  There is no way that the four-year-old would have been priced up at those odds if John still trained the course winner and I would not be surprised if P J McDonald’s mount figured prominently.  SIR DANCEALOT could outrun his price to reward each way investors too.

Favourite factor: 10 of the last fourteen favourites have been beaten (the race being won by horses returned in double figures on nine occasions), whilst only eight of the twenty one market leaders have reached the frame,

Record of course winners in the ‘Bunbury Cup:

1/4—Buckstay (good to firm)

1/1—Tashweeq (good to soft)

1/5—Bossy Guest (good to firm)

1/1—Boomshackerlacker (soft)

1/2—Von Blucher (good to firm)

1/1—Robero (good)

 

4.00:  'Team Hannon' have saddled five of the last sixteen winners of this race which is named after the 1983 July Stakes winner Superlative.  Richard saddles ETEFAAQ this time around, albeit Aidan’s O’Brien’s Curragh winner GUSTAV KLIMT will probably take the beating.  You can certainly ignore the 7/4 quote in the trade press about the favourite who might get close to even money by the time that flag fall arrives.  Aidan’s juveniles have run well at the meeting thss far and his Galielo colt is expected to go one better than his beaten favourite last year who ran behind a 7/1 winner trainer by Charlie Appleby who saddles AQABAH this time around.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have claimed win and place positions during the study period, statistics which include seven winners.

Record of the course winner in the Superlative Stakes:

1/1—Etefaaq (good to soft)

 

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4.35: In previous years I suggested that without wishing to upset connections, I would compare market leaders in the July Cup to top graders at the White City all those (halcyon) years ago, whilst other supposed ‘top notchers’ were A3/A4 types. Tough talk I know but in yesteryear, horses fancied for this race did not beat each other (like graders at a greyhound stadium) in turn, as was the case for a good while until last year.  I readily admit that the last couple of renewals have now looked like the real deal and in CARRAVAGIO we have a storm trooper who has that rare quality of speed and fortitude/resilience, call it what you like.  Unbeaten thus far following six assignments, it might need an off day to beat him, rather than any of his rivals, albeit they are a decent group of thoroughbreds and no mistake.  LIMATO is good on his day (won this race last year) but the days are becoming increasingly difficult to predict, whereas I am sick and tired of THE TIN MAN proving me wrong on so many occasions!

Favourite factor: Ten of the last 15 favourites have finished out of the frame, whilst five market leaders have won during the last 15 years, offering strength to my argument regarding the calibre of contenders in recent years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Limato (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newmarket card on Saturday followed by their stats at the July meeting this week:

5 runners—Richard Fahey (0/9)

5—Mark Johnston (1/8 – winner at 8/1)

4—Charlie Appleby (3/12 – winners at 9/2, 7/2 & 11.10*)

4—John Gosden (1/11 – winner at 9/4*)

4—Richard Hannon (1/12 – winner at 13/2)

4—Aidan O’Brien (2/5 – winners at 6/4* & 11/8*)

3—Michael Bell (0/3)

3—Mick Channon (0/1)

3—William Haggas (0/2)

2—Karl Burke (No previous runners this week)

2—Ed Dunlop (1/2 – winner at 7/1)

2—Mick Easterby (No previous runners this week)

2—Charlie Hills (0/6)

2—Gary Moore (No previous runners this week)

2—Hugo Palmer (0/5)

2—George Peckham (No previous runners this week)

2—Kevin Ryan (0/2)

Trainers with 1 runner on Saturday who have saddled a winner this week:

1/1—Hughie Morrison (11/4)

1/2—Jeremy Noseda (6/1)

1/5—Roger Varian (13/2)

+ 31 other trainers who each saddle just one runner on Saturday’s card

85 declared runners

For the record, three other trainers have saddled one winner each (all from three opportunities) but are not represented at Newmarket today, namely Andrew Balding (7/1), Brian Meehan (7/2) & Stuart Williams (7/1) = total of 15 winners at Newmarket this week going into today’s final day

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ascot: £41.70 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 4 unplaced

Chester: £22.90 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 5 placed – 1 unplaced

Hamilton: £16.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Salisbury: £122.60 – 6 favourites - 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

York: £448.90 – 10 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 5 unplaced