Tag Archive for: Trainer/Jockey Combo

Racing Insights, Saturday 07/09/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

... on 30-day form...

...1-year form...

... and 1-year course form...

 

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.10 Ascot
  • 2.45 Ascot
  • 3.15 Kempton
  • 4.12 Stratford
  • 4.40 Haydock
  • 8.00 Wolverhampton

...and with all three listed Trainer/Jockey combos having a runner in the same race on our free list, I suppose it makes sense to see how Arkhalia Flynn, Red Hat Eagle and Orbaan might get on in the 4.40 Haydock, a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to soft ground...

Arkhalia Flynn won last time out and comes here on a hat-trick, having won three and placed once in his last four outings, whilst bottom weight Mr Swivell also won and he’s now two from his last four. As well as being in good nick, this pair are both 3yr olds, so they like Asteverdi and Rogue Encore get a 5lbs weight allowance here.

Aside from the two winners, Asteverdi is our only LTO placer, having finished third a fortnight ago. Most of the field have, however, won at least one of their last seven outings but Rogue Encore is a five-race maiden and Autumn Festival, Nap Hand and Leadenhall are currently on losing streaks of 10, 9 & 9 races respectively.

The top two in the weights, Orbaan and Red Hat Eagle both drop down a class today and Stockpyle is down two grades, but both Beylerbeyi and bottom-weight Mr Swivell take a step up in class.

All bar Nap Hand and the maiden Rogue Encore have already won at least once over today’s trip with Pearl Eye and Leadenhall both former course and distance winners. Arkhalia Flynn has also scored here at Haydock, landing a 7f handicap too months ago, as shown on Instant Expert, which thankfully has a fair smattering of green about it…

...with Arkhalia Flynn and Pearl Eye the standouts despite not having won (or run in one case) on good to soft ground. Asteverdi is sure to like the going, but I doubt Autumn Festival will and this wouldn't be his preferred trip, a fact which seemingly also applies to Orbaan. Leadenhall has the worst Class 4 record and he's only 1 from 6 at the trip too, so he might struggle here, even if his place stats look solid...

Red Hat Eagle is worryingly 14lbs higher than his last turf win and 8lbs higher than a subsequent A/W success at Chelmsford.

I'm going to use the above data to eliminate Orbaan from my enquiries before moving onto draw and pace, which will hopefull both help me narrow down this field. If truth be told, the draw data is fairly inconclusive, but those drawn more centrally seem to have the worst records for win and place...

...so that might not be the best news for Rogue Encore, Nap Hand, Autumn Festival or Beylerbeyl, whilst the pace stats from the same races suggest a front-runner might b the one to be on...

...and this is backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...with low-drawn front runners the preferred option. We can see how this field have been ridden n their last few races as follows...

There's not much pace in the race, if truth be told and we might well get a falsely run race, which would play into the hands (hooves?) of the lower half of that pace chart, runners who are used to not having to put their effort in until later in the race.

Summary

It normally pays to crack on with thing here at Haydock, but with a field lacking much in the way of early pace, the race could be a falsely run affair and I think the hold-up types might prosper here.

Of those in the lower half of the pace chart, Arkhalia Flynn seems the obvious pick. He's in great form (1311), gets a weight allowance, had a line of green on Instant Expert and is drawn lowest of all. He was the 11/4 favourite with Bet365 on the early (3pm) show, but that might actually be a decent price.

Elsewhere and for similar reasons, I like Pearl Eye and with the bookies paying four places, 10/1 could be an attractive E/W proposition here.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 24/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 3.00 York
  • 3.05 Killarney
  • 3.15 Goodwood
  • 3.20 Newmarket
  • 5.25 Killarney
  • 6.00 Redcar

from which I'm taking a look at the Group 2 City of York Stakes from the free list aka the 3.00 York, an 8-runner affair for horses aged 3 or over and the trip is a left-handed 7f on good ground...

My initial thoughts were that this race might well boil down to a battle between Kinross (who won this race in 2022 and 2023) and Lake Forest (who gets a 5lb allowance as the sole 3yo in the race) for the right to finish second behind Audience, who I suspect will go off as a pretty short favourite, but let's have a proper look.

ART POWER has been useful in the past and ended last season with a Gr1 win on Champions Day at Ascot. Has yet to win in five attempts this season, but was a 4-lengths second to Audience in the Gr2 Lennox Stakes at Goodwood 25 days ago, although he was afforded a soft lead that day.

AUDIENCE ran alone and made all to win the Gr1 Lockinge at Newbury on his seasonal reappearance in May, but was only fifth in the Queen Anne a month later. He soon put that run behind him to land the afore-mentioned Lennox at Goodwood 25 days ago and looks the one to beat here.

FIVETHOUSANDTOONE has only won one of eighteen starts on the Flat and having finished 17th of 18 and 17th of 25 in his last two starts (both Class 2 handicaps), he'd not be high on many shortlists here.

KINROSS was a Gr1 winner on Champions Day to end the 2022 season after winning this race and another Gr2 contest at Doncaster. He also won the Lennox and this race last year and was third behind Audience and Art Power in this year's Lennox after blowing the start. He'll need to get away sharper if he want a third win in this race.

SHOULDVEBEENARING has lost ten on the bounce in the UK since landing a listed race at Newmarket in May 2023 and whilst he has four top three finishes at Class 1 during that run of defeats, you'd have to think there are at least one or two to beat him again today.

VAFORTINO won a Listed race at Redcar back in October and was sixth in this year's Wokingham followed by a near-three length defeat in a Chester Listed contest last time out. A steady performer, but steady cuts little mustard at Group 2!

BREEGE gets a 3lb weight allowance as the only female in the race and she started this season the same way she finished the last one, making the frame but losing by a head in a Listed race (Ascot & Goodwood) but she did last the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth at Epsom in June. Only 7th of 9 last time out and this is a tougher race, so she's likely to be down the pecking order once more.

LAKE FOREST gets that useful 5lb 3yo allowance here and comes here in good nick. He won the Gimcrack here over 6f last August and has been a runner-up at both Gr1 and Gr3 in his two races this term. Tends to run on late, so the step up to 7f might suit and after just seven races, he's not fully exposed.

INSTANT EXPERT almost inevitably points us back towards Audience and Kinross...

...and highlights Vafortino's lack of success at this trip. Breege is also winless in five attempts at 7f and has a really poor win return in Class 1 contests, losing 10 of 11, although she has made the frame in half of those ten defeats...

...and she is relatively well drawn if past races here are anything to go by...

That said, the draw influence isn't huge as the bend here on the 7f track is quite gentle and it's often race positioning aka pace that settles the contests here...

...with front-runners having most joy, which could be good news for the likes of Art Power, Audience and Breege based on their most recent efforts...

Summary

I still think Audience is the best in the race and will win here, but we're not getting rich at odds ranging from 5/4 to 6/4. Kinross and Lake Forest are still what I consider to be next bests, but at 11/4 to 4/1 probably offer little value/point to a bet, so it might well be the likes of Art Power as an E/W option at 12's today. He split Audience and Kinross last time out, so could he do it again?



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Racing Insights, Saturday 17/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 2.45 Ripon
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 5.40 Bath
  • 5.45 Curragh
  • 6.20 Market Rasen

Both the TJC report and the free list have a Class 2 handicap, but 18-runner sprints aren't my bag and I've not covered an NH race for some while, so let's head to Scotland for the 6.35 Perth, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap hurdle over what will be near enough 2m½f after a 57 yard rail adjustment. They'll go right-handed and tackle eight flights of hurdles in a bid to land the £13k first prize...

Enthused, Castel Gandolfo and Kinbara Firstdraft all won their last hurdle races, whilst King's Castle has won four on the bounce and the entire field have all won at least one of their last seven efforts.

Only Castel Gandolfo raced at Class 2 last time out, landing a 17-runner handicap at Market Rasen but Cuban Cigar and Here Comes Georgie both step up one level from Class 3, whilst the remainder of the field all raced at Class 4 last time out.

Today will be just the second time in a handicap for Kinbara Firstdraft, Here Comes Georgie and Annie Agnew with the first of that trio one of four (Cirque Royal, Scots Poet and Well Planted being the others) past course and distance winners, although the entire field have all won at least once over a similar trip to this one, but it's Enthused who stands out on Instant Expert's 2-year form overview...

King's Castle should love the good ground here, but Castel Gandolfo and Well Planted have several defeats on this going and in general! They have both also struggled over the trip, as has Cuban Cigar, whilst Well Planted also has a poor record at this venue and I think I've probably now written enough about him from a win perspective, although when you see his place form, you'd think I was talking about a different horse!

...and in a race where the bookies will pay four (some go five) places, it might be foolish to discount him and also Cuban Cigar entirely as E/W possibles. so, based purely, on the above graphic, the ones who appeal to me from an E/W or placed finish perspective are...

We have no draw stats to contend with here, of course, so let's see what kind of tactics might best be employed to win or make the frame here...

Past similar races have suggested that leaders an prominent runners are best suited to this contest, so in an ideal world, a fair few of the seven runners above will have regularly raced in more advanced positions. We can quickly check their last four (or all three in Annie Agnew's case) outings and they look like this...

...and from this, I think I'm going to set Well Planted and Cuban Cigar aside, although Sod's Law will now dictate that they both run excellent races here. Oslo is also borderline on pace and I think I best be best off concentrating on the quartet who'll chase and hopefully catch Chaos Control.

Summary

So, I've ended up with (in racecard order) Enthused, King's Castle, Kinbara Firstdraft and Annie Agnew and I'd be more than happy to place a small E/W wager on any/all of the four if I can get 8/1 or bigger about them. From a win perspective, it's Instant Expert standout Enthused and the form horse King's Castle who interest me the most and I'd probably take the former to edge out the latter here, but I'd no odds to quote at the time I published my piece.

Have a great weekend and I'll be back on Sunday for a preview for Monday's racing.

Chris



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Racing Insights, Saturday 10/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to consider...

for 14-day form...

...and 30-day form...

...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.45 Curragh
  • 3.05 Newmarket
  • 3.40 Newmarket
  • 4.30 Ascot
  • 5.00 Kilbeggan
  • 6.52 Lingfield

The TJC report has a couple of Class 1 (1 x Gr3 and 1 x Lst) races from nearby (to me, anyway) Haydock park, but the most valuable UK race on Saturday is on our list of free racecards, the 4.30 Ascot, aka the Shergar Cup Mile, a 10-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile on good ground...

Top-weight Carrytheone was the only one to win last time out, but New Image was a runner-up and like Carrytheone, has won two of his last five starts and three of his last seven. Yantarni has actually won three of his last four (admittedly at lower grades than this), whilst Talis Evolvere, Tacarib Bay, Spirit Catcher and the reserve Orbaan have all won once in the last seven.

Conversely, Silent Film, Tempus, Bless Him, Bopedro and the reserve Urban Sprawl are currently winless in their last 11, 13, 14, 11 and 17 races respectively.

Spirit Catcher makes a yard debut for Philp Kirby today, whilst Yantarni steps up in class for the second race in a row, despite failing to make the frame last time out.

Tacarib Bay, New Image and Urban Sprawl have yet to win over a mile, but in their defence the first pair have yet to tackle the trip, whilst the latter is 0 from 10! Urban Sprawl has however won here at Ascot before, albeit over 7f, as has Orbaan whilst Tempus and Bless Him have both won over course and distance.

Our two-year form overview via Instant Expert makes for some difficult reading if truth be told and I even included the Class 3 stats in a bid to make the data more palatable, but that failed too!

There's certainly more negative than positive there, especially if the reserve Urban Sprawl looks best suited! My main concerns about these win stats revolve around Carrytheone (going), Silent Film (class), Tacarib Bay (class), Tempus (trip), Bless Him (going, class and track), Bopedro (going, class and trip), Spirit Catcher (class and trip), Yantarni (trip) and Orbaan (going, class, track and trip).

So with so many negative stats, I think we're going to need some help from the place data from the above races...

Doubts/concerns remain about several of these, but I think I'm going to move forward with Carrytheone, Talis Evolvere, Bopedro, Spirit Catcher, New Image and the reserve Urban Sprawl as possible placers based purely on the data above. These are set to run from stalls 2, 3, 5, 6, 8 and 12 (reserve), so of there's any draw bias here, I'm hoping that the lower stalls are the ones to benefit.

Let's check...

...and it looks like stalls 4 to 7 might be the optimal area to run from, so my 2 to 8 range might not be too badly drawn. As for race tactics/pace, those races above seem to have favoured those held up for a late run. it's not a huge advantage, but hold-up horses have won 47.9% of those races and provided 41.7% of the placers, despite only making up 37.8% of the runners...

Therefore, in an ideal world, one or more of my runners drawn in stalls 2 to 8 will be hold-up types. To work out whether that will be the case, we can look at their last few races...

...and of those five, Carrytheone is the confirmed hold-up runner. New Image, Bopedro and Talis Evolvere will also nearer the back than the front too.

Summary

Carrytheone is our only LTO winner, he was one of my chosen half from Instant Expert and has the ideal draw and pace makeup to go well here. He has two wins and a place from his last five and I think he might just have enough to get home ahead of the clearly in-form New Image.

New Image is probably the best horse in the race, but has only won 1 from 6 on Turf and has yet to tackle a mile. His pace profile doesn't quite stack up as well as Carrytheone, but he's going to be thereabouts; it could be tight!

As of 4.35pm on Friday, the market sadly agreed with me about who the best two runners might be...

If I wanted a longer-priced runner for the frame or as an E/W option, then Bopedro is borderline on price, but the 14/1 Talis Evolvere might be the one to outrun his odds.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 03/08/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...and 1 -year form...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Newmarket
  • 3.20 Thirsk
  • 3.35 Goodwood
  • 4.25 Newmarket
  • 5.00 Newmarket
  • 6.10 Hamilton

And I think we'll take a trip to the birthplace of James Herriot to see how James McHenry from the TJC report might get on in the 4.30 Thirsk, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good ground...

Bottom weight On The River won for the second time in six outings last time out and Thunder Run comes here on a hat-trick after two wins and a runner-up finish from his three career starts. He makes a handicap debut today and although rated joint third highest in the race by the assessor, he has the benefit of a 7lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field.

Of the ten who failed to win, last time out, only featured runner James McHenry made the frame, finishing as a runner-up at Hamilton, but he did win as recently as three starts ago. La Trinidad won his penultimate race, Mudamer won three races ago and Eldrickjones scored five races back, but Awaal, Padishakh, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are on losing runs of 7, 8, 12, 16, 10 and 9 races respectively.

Padishakh runs in a handicap for just the second time today and will be tongue-tied for the first time, whilst Eldrick Jones, Mudamer and Cruyff Turn all step up a level from Class 3. Bottom weight and LTO winner On The River is up two classes, whilst the in-form handicap debutant Thunder Run steps right up from Class 5.

We shouldn't have any fitness issues today, as all twelve have had at least one outing in the last 45 days, but all have also had at least a fortnight's rest. All bar Austrian Theory have won over a similar trip to today's with Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River all having won over course and distance. In fact Empirestateofmind won this very race back in 2022, but he runs off a mark some 6lbs higher here.

The 2-year flat win records of this group are pretty bleak, according to Instant Expert...

...with only the inexperienced/unexposed Thunder Run catching the eye for the right reasons. James McHenry has done well over this trip and On the River has a decent return from his 16 attempts too, but doubts arise about pretty much the entire field at Class 2, whilst the records of La Trinidad, Empirestateofmind, Brunch, Austrian Theory and Cruyff Turn are poor over this trip. However, they do say you've got to be in  it to win it, which I read as you need to be in the frame if you're going to win and some of these do have reasonable place records from those losses above...

...with Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River being the ones I'd be most interested in at this point. They're going to emerge from stalls 4, 8, 9, 11 & 12, so I'm rather hoping that if there's any draw bias here that it favours those drawn higher than halfway!

Fortunately, it does appear that although the bias isn't massive, those runners drawn in stalls 7 or higher do seem to have an advantage, which is good news for four of the five I highlighted from Instant Expert...

This, of course, brings us to race positioning/tactics aka pace and if we refer back to those sixty-odd races above, we find that they have been dominated by runner racing prominently or leading. Leaders have the best place record, but do appear to have been picked off late on by the prominent stalkers who have the better win record...

..so what I really want to see is some of my Instant Expert 'picks' in the top half of the average pace score chart and if we use  a score of 2.25 as our pace cut-off based on this field's last few runs...

... we find that four of the IE five are in that grouping.

Summary

Instant Expert suggested that Awaal, Empirestateofmind, James McHenry, Thunder Run and On The River might be the ones most likely to make the frame with only Thunder Run having a satisfactory win profile. Of these five, all bar James McHenry would appear to be in the 'right' half of the draw and the same four also look like being on the 'right' side of the pace divide, so I'm just going to choose from Awaal, Empirestateofmind, Thunder Run and On The River.

Thunder Run is in the best form and would therefore be of great appeal to those who just look at recent results, but whilst he does indeed have a great chance here, this represents a far stiffer task than he has faced before and he steps up three classes. He'll probably still win, but a Friday 5pm price of 7/4 doesn't excite me.

Awaal is a best-priced 7/2 second favourite with Bet365, but both On the River and Empirestateofmind are at E/W backable odds of 10/1 and 18/1 respectively and with bookies paying four places here, this pair appeal to me more than a 7/4 bet on the fav.

Have a great weekend!
Chris



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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated no UK combos for me to check out but thankfully, as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover...

  • 2.05 York
  • 2.10 Chester
  • 3.00 Ascot
  • 4.15 Ascot
  • 6.30 Salisbury
  • 6.45 Lingfield

...and I've got reasons for not wanting to look at any of those like maidens, jump jockeys on the Flat and field sizes, so I'm going to randomly select the day's highest rated/most valuable race that has at least 6 runners and that happens to be the 2.25 Ascot, an 8-runner, 3yo+ Fillies & Mares Group 3 Flat contest over a right-handed mile on good/good to firm ground that is being watered to stop it getting any quicker...

I strongly suspect that this will be a race of two halves with the three three year olds (Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano) using their 8lbs weight allowance to battle with Sirona for positions in the first four home.

One of those 3yo's Devoted Queen is our only LTO winner and she defends a 3 from 3 record here today. Elsewhere Doom won three starts ago and has seven top-3 finishes on the bounce, whilst Naomi Lapaglia has won two of her six starts but might need a run after a 10 month break.

Sirona won four starts ago and then made the frame in a pair of Group 3 races before a 4 length Group 1 defeat last time out. Friendly Soul has won two of her three starts, but was well beaten in the Musidora and Soprano won here over course and distance five weeks ago and was third in a Listed race last time out.

On the cold list, though, are Julia Augusta and Thornbrook after ten and seven successive defeats respectively, but both have won over today's trip unlike Doom and Sirona, whilst our sole course win was that by the fast-finisher Soprano over this track and trip five weeks ago. Instant Expert looks like this...

...with the three year olds taking centre stage, although Doom and Sirona have good place records. Sirona and Thornbrook's Class 1 stats aren't great, though and Sirona has also been found wanting at this trip, so I'm less keen on her right now even if the draw might help her more than Thornbrook in stall 1...

...there's not actually much in it to be fair, especially from a place perspective and I suspect it'll be race tactics aka pace that sorts the wheat from the chaff here.

That said, there's not a great deal there either, but those in mid-division have fared slightly better than the others, which could be good news for Devoted Queen and Friendly Soul based on past efforts...

Summary

The three 3yo's are the best off at the weights with the 4yo Sirona having the joint highest OR and it's these four that I think are the ones to focus on.

Sirona obviously doesn't have the 8lbs weight allowance and wasn't as impressive on Instant Expert as the other three, plus her late run hold-up style could go against her here, so she's going to be the odd one out of my quartet, leaving me with Devoted Queen, Friendly Soul & Soprano.

I don't think there's much between them, but on form you'd have to put Soprano third and then make a decision on the other two. Devoted Queen is drawn higher, but Friendly Soul has pace either side of her, but she did run poorly last time out, so its Devoted Queen - Friendly Soul - Soprano for me.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 20/07/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.50 Curragh
  • 5.20 Newbury
  • 5.45 Doncaster
  • 8.30 Haydock

...and of the ten races above, the one that probably suits me best (although I won't know until I'm in the middle of it!) would initially appear to be the 5.20 Newbury, a 7-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a straight mile on good ground...

Top-weight Zouky hasn't been seen for fifteen weeks since finishing 5th of 10 at Kempton in a Listed race, but she drops two classes here. She has won here over 6f and 7f in the past, but as the sole 4yo in the race she's effectively penalised to the tune of 8lbs.

Bellarchi's last win was in mid-May over this trip at a higher class and she has won two of her last seven. She's the quickest turned out in the field, having been 7th of 11 at Ascot a week ago.

Circe has only raced five times to date (4 on the Flat) finishing third and first in her first two starts, but has failed to place since and now returns from a 12-week break.

Sunfall was third of seven at Chester three weeks ago and has won two of her last four and drops in class here.

Battle Queen also drops in class and also won two starts ago, but finished 6th at Ascot four weeks ago. Mind you, it was a 30-runner handicap, so she wasn't disgraced.

Shemozzle has finished 132 in her three starts to date and was only beaten by a neck at Haydock eight weeks ago on her last outing. She now steps up in class for her handicap debut.

Bottom weight Dramatic Effect is our only LTO winner, having landed a Class 4 Novice event over this trip at Goodwood six weeks ago. Prior to that she was 4th of 9 on handicap debut and she now steps up in class for a second tilt at a handicap.

With so many inexperienced runners here, we've not much to show you on Instant Expert, if truth be told...

...but we can see that most of the field have had at least one decent run on good ground and that a couple of them have made the frame at this level.

A straight run on good ground generally means that there's little to be gained from the draw, aside from the fact that those drawn lowest often have the rail as a guide to keep them straight and this seems to be the case here too...

...whereas with the pace stats from those races, it's a different story and it's the hold-up horses that have fared best of all, especially from a place perspective, although leaders have also won their fair share and it looks like the prominent chaser is the one to avoid here...

...and this is how our field have approached their last few races...

...with Sunfall and Dramatic Effect the more likely back markers.

Summary

There's not a lot to choose between them here, but I think it's Sunfall for me. She's in good form (1013), she's drawn low and will be held up, both of which look ideal for this track/trip.

As for the rest, I think Battle Queen might be the one who creates most problems for my pick, having won at Nottingham in May and was subsequently sixth in the 30-runner Sandringham handicap at Royal Ascot from stall 1. Interestingly the five that beat her came from stalls 18, 33, 28, 4 and 22, so she was second home of her group.

I'm early to press today (now 2.25pm Friday), as I've got to get to the dentist this afternoon, so no prices available just yet.

Have a great weekend,
Chris



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Racing Insights, Saturday 13/07/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following for me to consider...

...in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.40 Wexford
  • 3.10 York
  • 3.32 Ascot
  • 5.25 York
  • 6.05 Chester

The best (on paper) of all those races listed above (report plus free list) looks like being the latest of all, the 6.05 Chester, which is an 8-runner Listed race for horses aged 3 or over. The trip is a left-handed seven furlongs on good to soft ground and here's the line-up...

...a very open-looking race where the fast-finisher Al Shabab Storm is our only LTO winner, having done so here over course and distance a fortnight ago after a pair of runner-up finishes and this three year old now has two wins and four places from his eight starts.

Breege, Vafortino and Evade all won their penultimate UK races and Witch Hunter was less than 2.5 lengths behind the winner in a Group 3 contest a fortnight ago. Those seemingly out of form are Pogo and Streets of Gold who are both currently winless in eight races.

Streets of Gold's hopes of breaking that lean spell seem slim, as he actually steps up a class here, as do Vafortino and Al Shabab Storm, whilst Breege will run in blinkers for the first time in a bid to finally win over this trip after finishing as runner-up in all three previous efforts.

As such, he's the only one in the field without a win at 7f, whilst Al Shabab Storm's course and distance win here a fortnight ago is the only previous Chester win from these nine runners. That said, his two efforts here (runner-up and winner) and two from Witch Hunter (second and third) are the only ones to have taken place!

Instant Expert shows that course win and also highlights how tough Breege, Pogo and Witch Hunter have found it to win at Class 1 with a combined record of just 3 from 31...

Pogo has also struggle to win over today's trip in recent years, as he's clearly not the horse he used to be with a career record of 5 wins and 8 places from 27 Class 1 outings. That near 50% place strike rate at Class 1 hasn't quite been replicated over the last couple of years and as his star wanes at the age of 8, he's now probably the weakest of the field on the place stats...

...where Breege looks quite strong across the board. He, Vafortino and Evade all have three blocks of green above for the place stats and Vafortino has bagged the supposed prize of being drawn in stall 1. I say supposed because there's an old saying that you need to be drawn low to win on Chester's ever left-hand turning track, but lets check the actual data for verification/denial...

...and yes, stall 1 is a great place to run from, but stall 2 is even better, but generally speaking the low draw easily has the best of it, but that's only half of the battle here, because if you're drawn low and you get away slowly, you're susceptible to being blocked off at the first turn because early pace is as important if mot more so than the draw...

...all of which makes the resultant pace/draw heat map fairly predictable...

...and I can't recall see many similar one-sided heat maps. Low drawn leaders have won 9 of 14 on that chart, but what that doesn't tell you is that three of five who failed to win still went on to make the frame, so whilst mid-drawn leaders, low drawn prominent runners and low drawn runners in mid-division all win their fair share of races, we ideally want one of Vafortino, Al Shabab Storm and Breege to be a front-runner, so let's check their recent races...

...and this trio fill three of the first four places on that chart with only out of form Pogo ahead of them. If we translate those racing positions into our pace/draw heat map, we get something like this...

...with none of them firmly taking advantage, although it wouldn't be a surprise to see Al Shabab Storm set the pace here based on his two most recent outings.

Summary

You can make a case for most of these here, but I firmly believe that the pace/draw combination can't be ignored here at Chester and with the in-form (LTO course and distance winner) Al Shabab grabbing that plum second stall, he'd be my pick here with Vafortino and Breege running him close. A quick look at the market from Hills (only book open) as of 4.30pm Friday shows what a competitive race it might be...

...with Breege very interesting from an E/W perspective.

 

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 29/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 3.10 Newcastle
  • 3.40 Newcastle
  • 5.25 Newcastle
  • 5.40 Lingfield
  • 7.30 Doncaster
  • 8.00 Doncaster

The free list starts with a couple of Class 2 contests, but the 3.10 race is a 20-runner affair, which isn't my thing, so we'll move down the list one place and consider the 3.40 Newcastle, a 12-runner, Class 2, 3yo+, A/W handicap over  a straight 7f on standard to slow tapeta...

Bottom weight Local Hero has two wins and a runner-up finish form his four career starts and not only does he receive a 9lb weight allowance as the only 3 yr old in the field, he's also the sole LTO winner with only his oldest rival here, the 11yo Documenting, managing to make the frame.

The old warrior also won two starts back and most of the field have won at least once in their last six outings, apart from Make Me King, Raadobarg and Zip who are on losing runs of 8, 15 and 9 races respectively.

Four of the bottom five in the weights are up in class with Yermanthere and Zip stepping up from Class 3, whilst both Giant and Local Hero are up from Class 4. United Approach is the odd one out on the bottom five of the card, as he was fourth of eleven at Newbury at this grade last month after two wins on the bounce. That last run was his handicap debut and he makes just a second handicap appearance today, as does Local Hero.

Documenting last raced seven weeks ago, Make Me King and Baradar ran as recently as last Thursday (20th June) and the others have all raced at some point in between. United Approach is the only one yet to win over today's trip; all his four starts have been over 6f, whilst only four horses have even raced here at Newcastle. Liamarty Dreams, Eldrickjones and Zip have all won over course and distance, but Documenting could only finish 8th of 9 over track and trip back in December 2022 on his only prior visit.

A few of these are short on recent A/W experience, if truth be told...

...but of the above the positives are clearly Eldrickjones (track/trip) and Local hero (going), but Zip has struggled to win at Class 2 and here at Newcastle, even if he has won over course and distance. Those races above from a place perspective look like this...

...showing Zip in a whole new light. He hasn't won any of nine starts and is up in class, he has struggled to win here of late and has a poor Class 2 record, so I've already written him off as a win bet, but those place stats are impressive enough for him to remain in my thoughts for now as a possible E/W option. His last dozen A/W runs have finished 216132535562 and he was a course and distance runner-up on his last A/W outing. Giant and Edlrickjones also have solid place credentials so far.

We've not much in the way of any draw bias here...

...which is probably to be expected over an A/W straight 7f, so we'll turn immediately to the pace stats from those races to see if there's any help forthcoming. Strangely, there's not much of a pace bias either...

...but those racing furthest forward make the frame most often and if you're not in the frame, you're not winning, so I'll be wanting a horse that races prominently or further advanced if possible. Hold-up horses have, of course, fared the worst as is often the case over a straight 7f, but I don't think that'll be the case here as they might go off at a fair clip with no confirmed hold-up types in the field...

..and if we look at the pace/draw heat map, we've a sort of diagonal 'corridor of success' from low drawn leaders, mid-drawn prominence and high-drawn runners in midfield...

...which, if I'm being harsh, seems to rule Documenting, United Approach, Raadobarg, Baradar, Grey's Monument and Zip out. That said, I'd keep United Approach on recent form and Zip on his ability to make the frame, so I'm still left with eight runners.

Summary

I've decided against Documenting, Raadobarg, Baradar and Grey's Monument already and I'll add Make Me King to that list due to his poor recent form. Liamarty Dreams' last four A/W runs have all been here at Newcastle with finishes of 7689, losing by an average of around 8.5 lengths, so he's not for me either, whilst all Yermanthere's form is on soft-ish ground, leaving me with these five to choose from...

Any of this group is good enough to make the frame here and I really like United Approach, but I just think that 4/1 is a little short for a horse with no A/W experience stepping up to 7f for the first time. Don't get me wrong, he really could win here and win well, but I think there's more value in the 11/1 being offered about Eldrickjones and I'd see that as an E/W option here. He has three wins here at Newcastle, including two over course and distance and all his A/W runs have been on Tapeta, finishing 26121521.

Zip's a three-time C&D winner and was second to Eldrickjones last month and is now 7lbs better off, so could also be an option at 8/1. Local Hero is sure to get involved carrying no weight and in good form, but he's only 5/1 and up two classes, whilst Giant is another who makes E/W appeal at 8/1. He has two wins and five further places from eight starts over 7f on the A/W and whilst also up in class here, should put another decent effort in.

I've left a few in, as the bookies are paying four places here and the odds quoted were correct as of 4.50pm Friday.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 22/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC report look like this...

...and they have generated the following UK runners...

30-day form...

and course 1-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 2.45 Newmarket
  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 4.35 Newmarket
  • 6.25 Ayr
  • 8.oo Lingfield
  • 8.45 Haydock

Again, I'll leave Ascot to the experts on the site, but there is a nice-looking race North of the border on the 'free' list tomorrow evening in the shape of the 6.25 Ayr, a 9-runner, Listed race for fillies and mares aged 3 or over. The trip is a straight 5f on good to firm ground and here’s the card…

Only one of the field, Pepsi Cat, won last time out for a fifth win in her last eight starts, but she’s up from Class 3 here today, so I expect she’ll find this a bit tougher, as will Origintrail who is also up two classes, whilst Conservationist is up one class. Origintrail did make the frame on her last run, but she’s now winless in twelve outings.

Three other runners (Conservationist, Silent Words and So Majestic) have all gone more than four races since their last win and come here on losing streaks of 9, 9 and 10 races respectively, whilst Gaenari is a nine-race maiden and she wears cheekpieces for the first time here; Silent Words will be blinkered for the first time too.

All runners have raced in the last one to five weeks aside from Graceful Thunder who has been off the track for over three months, whilst all bar Azure Blue, Conservationist, Origintrail and Gaenari (obviously) have already won over today’s trip. Only Beautiful Diamond has won here at Ayr, though, landing a similar course and distance Listed race last September.

Relevant form via Instant Expert looks like this…

...where Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond look best suited for the rask in hand, but we shouldn't ignore Pepsi Cat's half a dozen wins over this trip, especially as she has been in the frame in six of her eight defeats for a very impressive place record over 5f...

Again Azure Blue and Beautiful Diamond stand out with Pepsi Cat a clear third best on the data above. This trio will be berthed fairly closely together in stalls 4, 5 and 7 over a course and distance where the PRB3 scores suggest that stalls 3 to 7 are the best place to be...

...further increasing the chances of the Instant Expert trio of making the frame.If we then look at what tactics would work best here, then there's no standout running style that has outperformed the others, but leaders have made the frame most often and hold-up horses have really struggled to win, which based on this field's most recent outings...

is clearly better news for Beautiful Diamond than it is for Blue Azure from our Instant Expert trio and better news for Graceful Thunder than it is for Origintrail overall.

Summary

Pepsi Cat is the ‘form’ horse, winning LTO and five of her last eight, whilst only Azure Blue, Beautiful Diamond and Graceful Thunder have won any of their last four races.

Of this quartet, Graceful Thunder was the weaker on Instant Expert and appeared to be the ‘worst’ drawn of the four, so despite being the likely pacemaker, I fear she might just miss out on the places.

Azure Blue’s pace score is a worry here, so that could stop her winning, whilst Pepsi Cat is up two classes here and whilst she’ll undoubtedly give her best again, I think she’ll also come up short and this pair will probably have to scrap it out for minor honours behind Beautiful Diamond who has ticked more boxes than others.

No odds were available at 4pm on Friday, but I'd hope to get an E/W backable price about Pepsi Cat in addition to fair odds about Beautiful Diamond.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 15/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following set of runners...

14-day form...

30-day form...

and 5-year course form...

...which in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Sandown
  • 2.05 Sandown
  • 4.52 Hexham
  • 5.04 Chester
  • 5.20 York
  • 6.18 Leicester

...gives me a grand total of ten races to consider, the highest-rated of which is the 2.05 Sandown, but 16-runner handicaps really aren't my thing, so next best is the race before that one, the 1.30 Sandown, a 9-runner, Class 3, 3yo flat handicap over a right-handed 1m1f on good to firm ground...

Sole female in the race, Crystal Flyer was a winner last time out, as was bottom weight Prince Eric who completed a 53-day hat-trick albeit all over a mile on the A/W. Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer all finished third on their last outing, but the latter is a five-race maiden, whilst the rest of the field have all won at least once in their last six outings or less.

Von Baer has also been gelded during the seven-week break since his last run, whilst Mafnood wears first-time blinkers and both Break The Bank and Jayyash are visored for the first time here.

Only Mafnood, Jayyash and Von Baer raced at Class 3 last time out as Brioni, Crystal Flyer and Into Battle all drop down from Class 2 with Mr Monaco and Break The Bank stepping up from Class 4, whilst Prince Eric’s recent hat-trick was all at Class 5 on the A/W and he may find Class 3 turf action a tad more difficult.

Today will be handicap debut day for Crystal Flyer, whilst Mr Monaco and Into Battle have both only had one previous handicap outing, but the latter is the only runner in this fried to have won over a similar trip to this one and we’ve no previous course winners, according to Instant Expert, which initially doesn't give us much to work with...

...but a slight relaxing of the parameters proves more helpful...

...with most of the field having at lest one win and Prince Eric / Into Battle excelling at the trip, but a lack of wins doesn't always mean a horse has run poorly as the place stats below show...

...where Brioni looks like enjoying the conditions along with Mafnood. They both have three greens from going/class/course and distance, whilst Crystal Flyer and Into Battle have two greens, but I should stress that the sample sizes are so small that I wouldn't lean too heavily on these numbers.

The draw, however, might well have an important role to play and if we spilt the stalls into thirds, it looks like those drawn highest have a distinct advantage...

...although closer inspection of the stall by stall data would suggest that this advantage starts around halfway along the stalls in box 5...

If we then look at how those races above were won, it's a bit of a mixed bag if truth be told with no real clear benefit from any particular running style from a win perspective, although the further forward a horse has raced, the greater the chance of making the frame...

We can now also look at how the draw interacts with the pace and this is interesting and offers confirmation, because we've already said that higher drawn runners fare well and leaders go well from a place perspective, so this graphic shouldn't be a surprise...

...but it also suggests that five of the nine pace/draw combos all have a similar success rate, suggesting that there's no clearcut perfect profile and if we look at how this field has tended to run of late...

...which suggests that Brioni and Into Battle (possibly Von Baer) are the likely pace makers, whilst Mafnood downwards have the pick of the draw. Crystal Flyer had a change of tactic last time out and this proved successful, so she might be ridden the same way again and if so from stall 6, she may just about edge it on pace/draw.

Summary

This looks a pretty open contest and I think I could make a case for most of these, but the one that interests me most right now (5.15pm Friday) is the 13/2 Crystal Flyer. It's a bit of a gamble that she races up with the pace like last time, but that is reflected in the odds. She won quite cosily last time out, but drops in class here and her runner-up has won since won, so 13/2 might be generous here.

As for an E/W option, only Brioni (10/1), Break The Bank (10/1) and Von Baer (14/1) are at what I'd deem E/W odds and if pushed to put one forward, I'd side with Brioni who drops in class after a disappointing run last time ended a sequence of hime having one win and three further places from his first four career outings.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 08/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated all the following runners for me to consider...

for 14-day form...

30-day form...

1-year form...

and 1-year course form...

...to consider in addition to our daily list of 'free' races, which are...

  • 1.40 Bangor
  • 2.10 Catterick
  • 2.20 Navan
  • 2.50 Bangor
  • 3.35 Haydock
  • 4.45 Haydock

The last of those free races features two runners from the TJC report, but 15-runner sprints really aren't my thing, so I'm happy that another runner from the TJC report runs in another of our free races, as Team Skelton's Lunar Sovereign is down to tackle the 2.50 Bangor, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left handed trip of 2m 145yds on good ground...

My initial thoughts are that the ones to focus one here were (alphabetically) Collingham, Feel The Pinch, featured runner Lunar Sovereign and top-weight Sir Tivo, but let’s dig a little deeper…

Sole LTO winner Collingham comes here seeking a hat-trick inside four weeks, whilst Feel The Pinch is the only one of his rivals to make the frame last time out. Elsewhere Lunar Sovereign and Barrichello in eight and ten races respectively, whilst Superbolt is a seven-race maiden. The other runners have all won at least one of their last seven outings.

Most of these ran at this grade last time out and all raced in the last 11-44 days, but Lunar Sovereign drops down a class and Sir Tivo is down two. Superbolt makes just a second handicap appearance and it’ll be his first run for his new handler and also his UK debut, whilst Barrichello wears blinkers for the first time.

All these bar Leylak and the obvious Superbolt have already won over a similar trip with Collingham, Feel The Pinch and Simply Red all former course and distance winners. Sir Tivo (2m1.5f chase) and Barrichello (2m3.5f hurdle) have also both won on this track earlier in their careers.

Instant Expert suggests that the top three on the card (and three of my initially favoured quartet) would be the ones to look at based on relevant past performances…

...but Simply Red is three from three over course and distance in the last two years (and 4 from 4 overall) so shouldn't be easily discounted, even if he has struggled since his last visit/win here last August.

Previous past similar races here at Bangor have gone with the pace of the contest with front-runners faring the best and hold-up horses faring the worst from both a win and a place perspective and based on this field's last few runs...

...this appears to hand the initiative to Sir Tivo.

Summary

I started off by suggesting that I was drawn to Collingham, Feel The Pinch, featured runner Lunar Sovereign and top-weight Sir Tivo and it's the latter, Sir Tivo, who is the likely front-runner over a course and distance that favour such tactics.

He drops two classes here and has two wins and two places from his last five outings and also scored well on Instant Expert, albeit off a small number of runs and all of this makes Sir Tivo look too big at his current (10.20pm Friday) 16/1 price tag. I'm not sure he's got the win in the bag, but should be a decent E/W option today.

Lunar Sovereign looks the weakest of my quartet, but still stronger than Simply Red, so I think it'll be hat-trick seeking Collingham and Feel The Pinch who cause Sir Tivo the most problems with 5/2 fav Collingham the most likely winner.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 01/06/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...in addition to our daily list of fully functional 'free' racecards, which for this Saturday cover...

  • 2.00 Epsom
  • 2.20 Worcester
  • 2.25 Listowel
  • 4.45 Musselburgh
  • 6.15 Doncaster
  • 6.28 Stratford

...from which the highlight has to be the nine-runner, Group 3, Princess Elizabeth Stakes for 3yo+ Fillies & Mares, shown on your racecards as the 2.00 Epsom, where they'll go left-handed on good to soft ground over a trip just three yards beyond 1m½f...

Royal Dress and Sea of Thieves both managed to win last time out at Listed class with the former beating the re-opposing Breege (finished third) by just two short heads in a tight contest at Goodwood four weeks ago, whilst Running Lion was a 3.5-length runner-up in the Group 2 Dahlia Stakes a day later at Newmarket. Two of this field are on losing runs with Breege winless in ten since scoring on debut just over two years ago, whilst Julia Augusta has lost seven on the bounce since opening her career with a pair of Class 5 wins over a mile and she's also almost two years without a win.

Julia Augusta was fourth in a Listed race for Roger Varian eight weeks ago and now makes a yard debut for David O'Meara, Sea Of Thieves wears a tongue tie for the first time on her return to UK action. She won a Listed race in France LTO, but is up two classes from her last UK run. Sparks Fly is also up in class after a 3.5 length defeat in a Class 2 handicap at Haydock five weeks ago and the quickest-turned back out (20 days), Chic Columbine is denoted as a fast-finisher. She (along with Glimpsed) gets a 12lb age allowance here as a 3yr old and that effectively makes her best off at the weights, as she's rated just 3lbs lower than Running Lion and Sparks Fly (103 vs 106). The afore mentioned Julia Augusta, however, carries 12lbs more than Chic Columbine despite being rated some 11lbs lower!

Astral Beau was third of six in this race last year and that's the only time any of this field have raced here at Epsom before, but Astral Beau, Julia Augusta, Royal Dress and Sparks Fly have all scored over 1m to 1m1f on the Flat, according to Instant Expert, where Sparks Fly has the best relevant record and Astral Beau the worst...

Admittedly, there's not a great deal of data to work with, but Sparks Fly's 2 from 3 on the going and 6 from 6 at the trip are certainly worth noting, as are Astral Beau's 1 from 7 at Class 1 and her 1 from 9 at the trip sadly. Breege, as we know, hasn't won any of her last ten and most have been Class 1 affairs over similar trips but I wouldn't write her off just yet, as she certainly knows how to make the frame at this level...

...where her Class 1 form line reads 32725423, putting her right into contention for at least a place again today along with Running Lion whose own Class 1 form reads 12382. Chic Columbine has won four of her last five, but they've all been at 6½f/7f, so this is a fairly big step in trip today for her.

Past similar (slightly expanded criteria, of course to get workable data) races show no real draw bias here...

...and there's probably no real pace bias either from those races, even if prominent runners have a much poorer win percentage...

I'm happy to overlook that relatively low 7 from 77 return, because those runners have made the frame as often as the other styles and could have just been a bit unlucky; they're probably only 2 or 3 winners shy of par.

So without a pace and/or draw bias, I'm going to class this as a fair race, where the best horses should prevail all being well and based on form / Instant Expert, I'd lean towards (in card order) Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine as being the four to choose from.

When we talk about the draw and the pace of a race, it's often useful to look at how they interact, because in those races above there is no obvious bias in either pace or draw, but when combined...

...we'd ideally have a high drawn runner in mid-division dropping in for a late run or a runner in stalls 1-6 leading the way, which makes the following quite interesting...

Astral Beau was third in this race last year, Sparks Fly was the standout on Instant Expert and Breege is the perennial placer.

Summary

The analysis above led me to believe that the winner and placers would come from Breege, Running Lion, Sparks Fly and Chic Columbine, whilst the pace/draw heat map threw Astral Beau's name into the ring, making the market as of 4.30pm Friday of little/no surprise to anyone...

...other than perhaps a feeling that Running Lion might be a little on the short side after being overturned as a 6/4 fav last time out. On her day, she's probably the pick here, but I'm not sensing a great deal of value at 15/8 so whilst she might very well go on to win, she won't be burdened with the weight of my money!

Sparks Fly is really interesting, of course but not backable for me at 5/1, but if you do want an E/W punt then any (or all) of the next three in the betting could be the way forward. God, I hate agreeing with the bookies!

Have a great weekend, guys (and girls, of course!)...
Chris



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Racing Insights, Saturday 25/05/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following pair of combos for me to check out...

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday were due to cover..

  • 1.20 Curragh
  • 1.50 Haydock
  • 3.35 Chester
  • 3.45 Goodwood
  • 4.05 Chester
  • 5.35 Windsor

Normally, I'd be covering that Listed race from Goodwood, but up here in the North West we've something even better : the 1.50 Haydock, a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for 3yo+ horses over a straight 5f on soft ground...

Seven Questions and Equality both won last time out, but the latter is our only class mover, having raced in a Class 2 handicap at Musselburgh five weeks ago. Rogue Lightning was fifth in France after winning three on the bounce here in the UK. Makarova and Vadream are both winless in their last five.

No new headgear or equipment being used here, no yard debuts and just Equality moving in class. Quality Aussie sprinter Asfoora makes her UK debut today nine weeks after a ¾-length defeat at Group 1 and it's worth noting that she has won three (inc 1 x Gr2 and 1 x Gr3) of five soft ground races. She has won over this trip before, as have all her rivals, but only Equality (course and distance) and Kerdos (6f on debut) have won at Haydock already with Makarova and Live In The Dream sharing three defeats...

The going doesn't really look like an issue for any of these runners, even if two of them are yet to make the frame : three combined runs isn't a hugely reliable sample size, but Makarova and Vadream have had plenty attempts at Class 1 and haven't really impressed. Kerdos' win record over the trip is poor if truth be told and the ones I'd taske forward from Instant Expert are Live In the Dream, Seven Questions, Vadream (place potential?), Beautiful Diamond and Rogue Lightning along with Asfoora based on her overseas record.

So, I've omitted runners in stalls 1, 2, 4 and 5, so I'm hoping there's no low draw bias here or I'm staring at Live In The Dream from stall 3! Thankfully, runners in stalls 4 to 8 have fared beast in soft ground straight sprints here at Haydock over the years...

...with stalls 3 to 7 faring best for the places, which overall is especially good news for the likes of Seven Questions and Asfoora. They key to winning sprints here at Haydock, though, rests more on race tactics/positioning, as those horses prepared to take the race on early have tended to win most often...

...with leaders winning 21.05% of their races and non-leaders winning just 8.67% of theirs and there's a similar (45.61% vs 28.46%) story with the places, so we need to check how these horses normally run via the pace tab...

...and it looks like Live In The Dream will be the one to catch here.

Summary

Live In The Dream looks like he'll try to make all here, a tactic that served him really well when winning the Gr1 Nunthorpe last autumn. He ran well in the Breeders Cup last year and was third in this race last time around and he'd be the one to beat in my book. He was a 4/1 shot at 5.45pm on Friday and whilst that's not generous, I'd say it was fair.

In opposition, I do like the look of the Aussie raider Asfoora, a dual-Group race winner on soft ground, who comes here as a bit of an unknown quantity, I suppose, whilst Seven Questions is drawn well, is in good form and will be up with the pace, so should be in the mix. Asfoora and Seven Questions currently trade at 5/1 and 16/1 respectively, so a small E/W play on the latter might be the ticket here.

Enjoy the Bank Holiday, I'll be back next week.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 18/05/24

/in /by

Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

...which gives me quite a few races to look at, plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday are due to cover...

  • 1.50 Newbury
  • 2.35 Thirsk
  • 3.40 Navan
  • 4.20 Thirsk
  • 5.05 Bangor
  • 5.35 Doncaster

And of the twelve UK races in total from above, I'm going to look at the highest rated which is the Group 3 Aston Park Stakes aka the 1.50 Newbury, a 9-runner, 4yo+ flat contest over a left-handed 1m4f on good/good to soft ground...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a battle between Middle Earth and Salt bay for the right to finish second behind the King's horse Desert Hero, but things don't always pan out as they first appear, so let's dive into the recent form first...

All nine have won at least one of their last six, including German import So Moonstruck (3rd in the German Derby LTO), who makes a UK debut today. Bolster is three from five and won last time out, as did Middle Earth, who has won three of his last four starts, whilst Maxi King arrives here seeking a fourth win on the bounce.

Maxi King is upped in class here, though, as are Bolster and Cemhaan. Middle Earth might be in need of a run after a 225-day lay-off, whilst it's over 22 months since So Moonstruck was last seen, but the other seven have all raced in the last four weeks.

So far, only three of these have raced here at Newbury for a collective 0 wins from 4, although Salt Bay has made the frame on both attempts. Cemhaan, Desert hero, Maxi King and Middle Earth have already won over today's trip according to Instant Expert...

...where Middle Earth seems to be the one best suited so far, off an admittedly small number of relevant runs. Flying Honours has some decent numbers there, too, but finished last of 11 on his sole 2023 start and was last of seven on his only run this year. Desert Hero is proven at the trip, but would prefer more cut in the ground. That said, his place stats are excellent...

...and on those alone, he appears to steal Middle Earth's thunder and both King of Conquest and Flying Honours look vulnerable. Desert hero is the highest-rated runner in the race at 113, which technically makes him at least 3lbs 'well-in' off equal weights, whilst Maxi King is rated some 17lbs lower than Desert Hero

Somewhat unusually for a trip of 1m4f, there does seem to be an advantage to be had from the draw, as those drawn lowest have fared much better than others...

...which is good news for the likes of Salt Bay, Maxi King and Bolster, but there's no huge pace bias here...

...which is probably just as well, considering there doesn't appear to be much between most of the field in terms of their pace profile...

Bolster might well lead the way here from stall 3 and Cemhaan might well try to track across from stall 8, but the lack of general pace will play into the hands of the better runners who can just set about their own race and with our pace/draw heat map suggesting that high-drawn mid-division runners fare really well here, that could be useful for Desert Hero...

Summary

This has to be Desert Hero's race to win or lose, hasn't it? I think he's the best in the field, he's also the highest-rated and after finishing third in the St Leger (1m6½f) last year and only beaten by a head in a Group 3 over 1m2f at Sandown recently after a 223 day absence, the return to 1m4f should see him back in the winners' enclosure.

Sadly, we're not getting rich off him at a best price of 11/8 and with Middle Earth and Salt Bay next in the market at 9/2 and 6/1 respectively, I agree with the bookies' 1-2-3 today, but I do slightly prefer Salt Bay to Middle Earth. Neither are backable as E/W prospects (but if forecasts/exactas or tricasts/trifectas are you thing, who knows?), so if I was going to pull one from the pack for a small wager, it'd possibly be Bolster at 18/1.

Enjoy your weekend, folks, Wembley beckons for us Bolton boys.



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