Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners...
...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
- 3.10 York
- 3.30 Ascot
- 3.52 Chester
- 4.27 Chester
- 4.45 Navan
- 5.05 Salisbury
And despite the obvious pull of the Appleby/Buick partnership, I want to move away from HQ after two posts from there this week already. So, I'm staying closer to (my) home because there's a Class 1 race on the list of free races, the 4.27 Chester, a 10-runner Listed contest over a left-handed 7f on what is currently good to soft ground that is softer in places. there's quite a lot of rain around in the North West (as always!) and I'd not be surprised to see this go to soft by tea-time Saturday. That said, here's the card...
He's A Monster won last time out and is four from six so far, Brad The brief has won two of his last four, Mount Athos is three from five and although winless in eight since scoring on his debut, Holguin has five runner-up finishes and a third places from those eight efforts, finishing 222 in his three races in Listed company.
Ffion and He's A Monster both step up from good runs at Class 3, whilst Think climate was in Class 2 action a fortnight ago. Witch Hunter is in decent nick right now and is denoted as a fast finisher and he, like Think Climate and three others all raced a fortnight ago.
The rest of the field bar Misty Grey have raced in the last seven weeks, though, with Misty Grey now returning from over six months off. he wasn't in the best of form before his break and that allied to a potential rustiness puts me off him.
He's A Monster, Holguin and Think Climate are all three years old, so they'll carry 3lbs less than the two females (Fast Response & Ffion) and 8lbs less than the top half of the card, which should be very handy here. Speaking of weight, Brad The Brief is the highest rated runner here at 112 and would be best off at the weights, but for the 108-rated Holguin getting that 8lb pull for his age.
The 6yr old mare Ffion is the sole course and distance winner in the field, but Misty Grey, Mount Athos, Witch Hunter, He's A monster and Think Climate have all scored over a similar trip elsewhere.
Instant Expert adds to the above data by telling us that three of the field have won on good to soft ground and that three have scored on soft. We also see that we've three previous Class 1 flat winners...
If it does end up being soft, then brad the brief would be a better bet than if it was a bit drier. The returning Misty Grey hasn't gone well at Class 1 and his sole Flat win was over 6f. Sam Maximus has also struggled at his level. As for their place form...
...both Witch Hunter and Holguin look really comfortable under these conditions. They're drawn at opposite ends of the stalls (in boxes 2 and 8) and the old adage of needing/wanting to be drawn low at Chester is backed up by the stats from similar past races...
...whilst the best place to be in those races above is as close tot he lead as possible...
Our field has raced as follows in their most recent outings...
...and I'd probably want to be with those in the top four of that list.
Summary
Holguin and Brad The Brief are best in at the weights, both scored well on Instant Expert, both are drawn in the inside three stalls and both will be up with the pace, so they're both in my final three. They're also both 4/1 co-favs with Witch Hunter, who I do like, but he's going to have encounter traffic and I think that stops him beating the other two and I'm not going E/W at 4/1 about any horse.
If I'm going for an E/W bet, i'm taking the generous-looking 10/1 from Hills about the in-form He's A Monster. I know he's up in class, but he has won four from six, his draw isn't horrific and he's certainly going to be up with the pace, so he'll do for me. As for the winner, I (marginally) prefer Holguin over Brad The Brief, mainly due to the weight allowance.