Tag Archive for: TJC combo

Racing Insights, Saturday 19/02/22

Our Geegeez Gold service at £36/month is worth far more than that, but we appreciate that not all our readers are in a position to subscribe, so we offer them a selection of full free racecards and a Gold feature each day and on Saturdays that feature is the brilliant Trainer Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, which brings together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations.

Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Alongside this excellent report, we also have these 'free' races of the day...

  • 2.40 Haydock
  • 2.48 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Gowran Park
  • 3.45 Lingfield
  • 4.55 Lingfield

My settings for the TJC Report...

...have drawn a blank across the board, bar one qualifier from the 14-day hcp form...

...but with such a good recent record and a runner in a Class 1 contest, I just have to take a look at Hold That Taught's chances at Ascot.

The 2.25 race there is the Swinley Chase, a a 10-runner, Listed limited handicap chase for horses aged 5 or older, taking in a total of twenty fences over a left-handed three mile trip on soft ground. The trainer/jockey combo will be aiming for the £48,405 first prize with their 7 yr old gelding whose racecard entry looks like this...

...backed by an impressive set of stats! The yard is in form, the jockey is in form, the team are doing well together and the jockey rides Ascot well, especially for this trainer. IV numbers North of 2.00 are a really good indicator of how successful they've been.

I won't patronise/bore you by going through those stats, but I'd like to add to them by saying that the combo are 46 from 172 (26.7% SR) in handicap chases alone since the start of 2021 and that includes, of relevance today...

  • 30/103 (29.1%) on soft ground or 'worse'
  • 20/70 (28.6%) on soft
  • 15/63 (23.8%) over trips of 3m to 3m2.5f
  • 3/8 (37.5%) here at Ascot
  • and 2/7 (28.6%) in Listed handicaps

So, the numbers are very much in favour of them here, but horses win races, not stats! We'd better look at the horse himself...

He ended last season with some decent results (2323) over fences and returned from 247 days off track to win first up on Halloween at Carlisle, getting home by 3½ lengths over 3m2½f on soft ground (Class 3) off a mark of 128, but was disappointingly pulled up in the Gr 3 Welsh National at Chepstow just after Christmas and then could only finish a well-beaten (33 lengths) third of six in a novice event at Lingfield four weeks ago.

His recent poor form is compounded by him running from 3lbs out the handicap, making him effectively half a stone worse off than his last win. With regards tro course conditions here, he has run at the track before, but was unplaced, seven of his ten career starts have been on soft ground (other 3 on heavy), seven have been at 2m7½f or further and Charlie Deutsch has been in the saddle for all ten.

His three best efforts have come when fresh (won on debut, won after 247 days and a runner-up beaten by a neck after 248 days) at the start of each season, so that's a bit of a negative to go with his form and Instant Expert doesn't paint a great picture on him on all runs...

...whilst over fences...

...it is at least marginally better. The Ascot pace stats are largely inconclusive...

...other than to suggest that mid-division runners fare really badly. We can look back at how this horse raced in the past, of course and we get mixed messages from his last four runs...

...which I suppose suggests he probably won't sit in mid-div. I've looked back over all ten career runs and I'd put his average pace score at around the 2.9 mark, so I'd expect him to race quite prominently in a race that doesn't have too many wanting to force the issue. Five wins from six, second favourite, Ask Me Early is the I'd expect to set the tempo here and Hold Me Taught will probably track him along with Truckers Lodge.

Summary

Yard/rider stats in isolation and combined are excellent, but I can't see Hold That Taught even making the frame here. he looks out of sorts, he's out of the handicap and doesn't tend to go well with a recent run behind him.

It could be a really good race, but not from a betting perspective for the featured report. I think the bookies have it right with Fiddlerontheroof heading the market ahead of Ask Me Early. I expected the fav to be around the5/2 mark, so 3/1 actually represents really good value. If you wanted a longer-priced E/W punt, then you can get 9's about Caribean Boy and 12's about Fortescue and I fancy both to be involved. Hills are paying four places for those that way inclined.

Not liking the featured horse doesn't make this a worthless exercise, though. If anything, I hope it reinforces the message that the reports are just a way in to a race, not the end point.

 

Racing Insights, Saturday 12/02/22

Saturday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the rather splendid Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) Report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing and clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My own settings for the TJC Report are fairly demanding and have only generated one horse for me to consider...

...which I'll obviously take a look at, but thankfully we've also got the daily 'free' races for everyone, too and they are...

  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 3.08 Uttoxeter
  • 3.43 Uttoxeter
  • 4.05 Lingfield
  • 4.45 Newbury

The Lingfield race only has four runners and normally I shy away from them, but (a) it looks a decent, competitive affair and (b) it combines the free feature with the free race list, so let's assess the chances of Messrs Furtado and O'Neill in the 4.05 Lingfield, a 4-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed mile and a half on standard polytrack...

As you can see, I've expanded the stat boxes to show what the red numbers were highlighting and despite the small field, this could well be a decent race. All four come here in good form, Celtic Art and Crimson King both won LTO, Trevolli has won his last three and despite going 17 races over almost 11 months without a win, Protected Guest has seven consecutive top-3 finishes under his belt.

Celtic Art makes just a second start for Jeremy Scott, having been a runner-up at this class/course/distance on New Year's Eve prior to stepping up to Class 2 for a C&D win LTO. He's up 2lbs for that win (beat Protected Guest by half a length), but back down in class. Looks all set for another bold show, likes to be up with the pace and his yard is in good form. Definite player here.

Protected Guest was outpaced late on in that contest but now re-opposes 1lb better off, also down in class, He's running well right now, but not quite good enough to land a race and is now on a run of 17 straight losses since winning here over course and distance almost eleven months ago. Has been a consistent close loser of late and whilst he might not be the worst of the four here, I don't see him breaking that cold spell just yet.

Trevolli represents the in-form Furtado/O'Neill combo from the TJC and this horse has been terrific of late. He'd done OK for a couple of trainers, but since a switch to the Furtado yard in November, he has finished 2312111 including 12111 with Kieran O'Neill on board. He was an even money winner here at class/course/distance a month ago holding off the re-opposing Crimson King by half a length. Although he's up 3lbs for that win, he's actually 3lbs better off than the runner-up today, thanks to jockey allowances, so I'd expect to reaffirm those placings.

Crimson King completes the line-up, getting weight all round and although he was beaten by Trevolli a month ago, he has since won here over course and distance off that same mark effectively franking Trevolli's effort. He's up 2lbs here to a career high Flat/Aw mark and with a 3lb claimer replacing 7lb jockey, this is much tougher, but he loves the track here and has results of 311321 here inc 31321 over course and distance.

So, you really could make a case for all of them. If we split the field in two, I'd say that Celtic Art holds Protected Guest from LTO, as does Trevolli over Crimson King, effectively giving us Celtic Art / Trevolli vs Crimson King / Protected Guest and Instant Expert would appear to back up this assertion...

...although Celtic Art's 0/4 at Class 3 might be an obvious starting point. Closer inspection show 3 places from 4, so his form at this level isn't disastrous. Protected Guest, however, has just 1 win and 1 further place at this level and whilst his place numbers for Course /Distance are batter, he does look like the weak link here. Trevolli is the standout, of course and Crimson King just looks steady. No really big weight differences to ponder here, though.

The trip is a mile and a half and with them only setting off four abreast, the draw really shouldn't be the deciding factor here, but we should check the stats, just in case. I expanded the number of runners to 5 to give us a slightly bigger sample size...

...and whilst stall 2 hasn't won as many as the others, to no rhyme or reason behind it and the place results are almost on a par with the other, so I'm going to call no bias here. Race tactics, however, might tell a different story. Based on their last four outings...

...I'd expect the two I already like best to be setting the pace and if they put it on early, could easy turn it into a two-horse contest and the stats say that's exactly what they should do...

...with Crimson King's hold-up style preferred to Protected Guest's mid-div positioning.

Summary

A tricky little contest on paper that i think I've worked out. I said earlier that..."Celtic Art holds Protected Guest from LTO, as does Trevolli over Crimson King, effectively giving us Celtic Art / Trevolli vs Crimson King / Protected Guest" and I stand by that. I also think that Cromson King beats Protected Guest via form and pace profiling, leaing me with just the tough job of calling the winner.

Trevolli is the form horse for the form yard and the TJC combo, but I've got this nagging doubt that Celtic Art's class 2 win LTO might be the best run any of these have produced so far and that might just tip it here and at 9/4 there might just be a little juice in Celtic Art's price.

Reverse forecast too, of course 😉

Racing Insights, Saturday 29/01/22

The Saturday free Geegeez Gold feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo Stats (TJC) report, bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Quite simply, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’. This report quickly identifies the most profitable combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing. And clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

But wait, there's more free stuff, there's also our daily selection of full free racecards for these races...

  • 12.08 Uttoxeter
  • 2.45 Doncaster
  • 3.20 Doncaster
  • 3.25 Fairyhouse
  • 6.30 Kempton
  • 7.35 Kempton

You can filter the TJC report to show all races or handicaps only and you can then break them down into 14 day, 30 day, 1 year, course 1 year and course 5 year records. I'm only really interested in handicaps and my settings are fairly strict, so that I'm not ploughing through reams of qualifiers each day and Saturday is no exception, as the only possibles I have both feature on my course 5 year handicap report...

And I'm going to try to quickly ascertain whether Irish Millions and/or Sophosc might be worth backing, starting with the 3.48 Lingfield, where the Haggas/Marquand combination has been red hot. An IV of 4.15 and a PRB of 0.80 is exceptional and they team up with Irish Millions for this 3yo, Class 5 handicap over 7f.

Irish Millions is a seven-race maiden, finishing 4446 over 6f/7f on turf prior to three runs on the A/W, where he was second of eight beaten by a neck at Wolverhampton over 7f and then 7th of 8 over the same class/track/trip a fortnight later before taking a two month break. He returned to action a fortnight ago, finish second over today's class, track and trip, just half a length behind Essencial who he meets again here, but on 2lb better terms, which should give him a good chance of overturning the deficit.

We know he's lightly raced and yet to win, so let's look at his places stats to see if today's conditions will suit him...

...and we see that on the Flat, he has done better since moving into handicap company with all three A/W runs also in hcps. and with a largely green profile, albeit off small sample sizes, Instant Expert would appear to suggest he has a good chance of making the frame.

He's drawn in stall 4, which doesn't appear to be a terrible place to be drawn...

...although higher would also have been good. He led last time out, but has also raced in mid-division of late and both of those approaches do better than par over 7f here at Lingfield

...and were he to run as he did here over C&D last time out, leading from his mid-draw would be the ideal tactic, based on...

*

Then we're off to the 7.05 Kempton, where the Williams/Kingscote combination send Sophosc out for a Class 5, 4yo+ handicap over a mile and a half...

As you can see, he he was in pretty decent form (13121) before finishing fourth last time out. In his defence, that was a Class 3 race where he didn't get the best of runs and had to go quite wide and his seven career wins have all been at Class 4 or lower. He has two wins and two places from seven over today's trip, 3 wins and 3 places from 7 under today's jockey and has been a runner-up here over course and distance. The stat box shows his yard is in good health and the Trainer/Jockey stats are even better lately than the five-year figures, which is encouraging.

Stat-wise in races similar today, aside from being 8lbs higher than his last win (which was at this class/trip by 6.5 lengths, so 8lbs isn't massively punitive), he looks like he'll relish conditions here...

...giving him an excellent opportunity making the frame. He's drawn out in 7 of 9 for this one and whilst 7 of 9 hasn't particularly been a happy hunting ground, higher draws have done best here, so being towards the highest end is another positive...

The question, I suppose, is what he makes of that decent draw. Over his last four runs, his average pace score is 2.00, which is firmly mid-division, he has raced prominently in a couple of races, but throughout his career he has tended to be a mid-division horse, which would be the ideal tactic here...

...and a highly drawn, mid-division/prominent runner has had quite a bit of success here over this track and trip...

...bettered only by the low drawn mid-div horse.

Summary

Everything points to good runs from both featured horses and I'd say that my personal feelings/thoughts allied to the details above have put me on the verge of backing both, but I do need to see what prices I can get about them. We should never be interested in backing winners just to improve our strike rate, we have to back horses at the right price to pay for the losers. If you've a 25% strike rate (well done there, by the way!), you need to be backing winners at average price of 7/2 just to make an ROI of 12.5%. If most of your betting is around 3/1 or shorter, you can't make a profit.

So, let's start with Irish Millions at Lingfield : I've got him as a firm placer and would have expected him to run at 4/1 or maybe 9/2, so to see Hills offering 5/1 is great news. He's going to have to see off the likes of LTO winner Small Print to win, though, whilst another LTO winner Golden Spice looks a big price at 7's (shame he's not 8's for an E/W punt).

It's a similar story at Kempton later on, where I see Sophosc as a definite placer with the main danger to success being Charlie Arthur. So much so, that the bookies have the pair locked with another runner, Red Flyer as 4/1 co-favourites. I'm not hugely into Red Flyer here, as he might need the run on yard debut, but I do agree with the other two co-favs. The other one of interest here would be the in-form Eagle One. None of the three are long enough to play the E/W market, but Sophosc's 4/1 is probably a little shorter than I'd hoped for : I thought he'd be 9/2 or even 5/1.

So, I've two possibles that I thought would be an average price of 9/2, so I'll back both Irish Millions at 5's and Sophosc at 4's to get that average price and keep my fingers crossed that they drift for those of you on BOG prices.