Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.
HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.
My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...
...and they have generated the following runners...
14-day form...
1-year form...
course 5-year form...
...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...
- 1.50 Doncaster
- 1.58 Lingfield
- 2.10 Navan
- 4.40 Gowran Park
- 5.20 Doncaster
- 7.10 Musselburgh
The last two of the 'free' races each have a runner from my TJC Report and although it has more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, the better rated of the two is the 5.20 Doncaster, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground...
Only The Gatekeeper comes here off the back of a win, but Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher (won two starts back) and Freedom Day (won three races ago) were all in the frame on their last outings.
All have raced in the last two (Spioradalta) to eight (Liberty Lane) wee and most of these ran in this grade last time out, but Pisanello steps up a class and it's a two-step rise for Titian, Freedom Day and Look Back Smiling.
That latter pair are both 3 yr olds and they receive a 4lb weight allowance here, as does Spioradalta, who once again wears cheekpieces, as does Look Back Smiling. Elsewhere Spirit Catcher wears a hood, Blue For You has a visor and both Sonny Liston & Empirestateofmind are blinkered. La Trinidad, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling will all be ridden by claiming jockeys, but the latter pair run from 3lbs and 7lbs out of the handicap here.
All bar Sonny Liston, Liberty Lane, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling have already won over a similar trip, but onlt La Trinidad has won over course and distance. That said, Titian's win here over 1m2f almost two years ago is the only other course success, as Instant Expert says that the field are 3 from 15 here at Doncaster...
We do have some past soft ground form, but the field have generally disappointed at Class 2. We've touched on the course/distance wins, of course and the above doesn't really inspire. It does. however, suggest that some have tried and failed several times under expected conditions with Brunch, Empirestateofmind, La Trinidad and Dutch Decoy having struggled to win at this grade, whilst Brunch and Spirit Catcher's percentages over this trip leave work to do at 3 from 24. There is, of course, the possibility that they've been unlucky or have been 'there or thereabouts' in defeat, so let's check the place stats...
...where the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta have performed best.
We have fifteen runners strung across the track for a straight mile and I wasn't expecting to see much of a draw bias and the stats haven't let me down in that respect...
Sadly, this doesn't get me any closer to finding a winner or an E/W bet, but I suppose those drawn lowest might have a small advantage based on the above, but I suspect it will be a case of 'pace wins the race', by which I mean the horses that has the best tactics. Those races above for the draw stats have best suited those setting the tempo from the front...
...which based on recent efforts opens the door for the likes of Spirit Catcher, Titian and The Gatekeeper....
I also suppose that if we ignore his last outing, Liberty Lane will also be keen to apply early pressure.
Summary
This looks a wide open race and I can see why Sonny Liston is the early favourite after some creditable runs in defeat. I can't back him at 9/2 or 11/2 in a 15-runner race, though. Not when he's only 1 from 12 on turf and 0 from 5 at this trip. I know he has contested better races than this, but his sole win was at Class 4 in a 7f Novice event on debut more than 26 months ago. I'm not saying he can't win, but his current odds offer me no comfort.
So, where do I stand? Well, I want to reconsider form, Instant Expert and pace...
The Gatekeeper, Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher and Freedom Day appeared to be bringing the best recent form to the table, whilst the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta had the best place scores on Instant Expert. The pace angle pointed to Spirit Catcher, Titian, The Gatekeeper and Liberty Lane.
It's not exactly scientific, but in those three areas I've just revisited, the names of Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher, The Gatekeeper and Titian all appear twice, so this quartet are going to be my E/W possibles. And as of 4.15pm on Friday, my quartet were priced at 8/1, 10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 and I'd be happy to back any/all of them to make the frame. I'm not necessarily saying any are good enough to win, but who knows in such an open race?
The bookies are paying four places (5 at Sky, of course), so you can take your pick. As for the one I like best of the four; probably The Gatekeeper.
He won a similar soft ground, 1m, Class 2 handicap last time out when ridden by today's jockey Rossa Ryan for the first time and was a decent second in the 20-runner Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last month, when beaten by just half a length. He was first home of those drawn low and had Dutch Decoy a length and a place behind him with Sonny Liston a further two mplaces and 1.5 lengths further back.
Please Note : I'm away all weekend moving my youngest into university at Exeter (just 270 miles from home!), so I won't be around on Sunday to preview Monday's action, sorry.