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Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 14th Sept 2018

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The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Friday 14th September 2018

 

1.50 - Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f ITV4

13/15 – Never raced at Doncaster before
12/15 – Won between 1-3 times before
11/15 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Had won over 7f before
10/15 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
7/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Won by the Hills stable
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/15 – Irish-trained winners
0/15 – Winners from stall 1 or 2
Music Box (8/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10.5/1

2.25 – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

14/15 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/15 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
12/15 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
11/15 – Won 1-2 times before
11/15 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
11/15 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
10/15 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
8/15 – Placed favourites
7/15 – Winning favourites
6/15 – Foaled in April
6/15 – Ran at York last time
5/15 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
4/15 – Won last time out
1/15 – Irish-trained winners
1/15 – Winners from stall 1
Heartache (6/4) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/2

 

3:00 – William Hill Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

15/15 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
14/15 – Aged 5 or younger
14/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
11/15 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
11/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance 1 length or more
10/15 – Carried 8-10 or more
8/15 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/15 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
6/15 – Ran at York last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
5/15 – Returned a double-figure price
5/15 – Won last time out
4/15 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/15 – Trained by Michael Bell
Time To Study (11/8 fav) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

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3:35 – Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

15/17 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
15/17 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
12/17 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
12/17 – Placed last time out
11/17 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
10/17 – Ran at York last time out
10/17 – Previous Group race winners
10/17 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
6/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained in Ireland
Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/3

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 26th July 2018

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Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Lingfield : Full Suit @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leaders in 3rd, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muatadel @ 11/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding is winless in almost a year, but is now back on a mark 3lbs lower than his last win 2lbs lower than when beaten by just a length over this course (at 5f, staying on) a week ago. The 5th placed horse, that day, Bondi Beach Boy has since gone on to win at Beverley three days ago, so that's a positive, as is the extra furlong for our pick today.

By virtue of winning this race last year Muatadel is the only previous C&D winner in today's field and that 1/1 C&D record has contributed to him having 2 wins and 2 places from 4 visits to this venue, whilst 2 of his 3 career wins are under today's jockey Tony Hamilton.

Trainer Roger Fell has got his horses running well right now, as demonstrated by a 12 from 48 925% SR) for 28pts (+58.3% ROI) return over the last 30 days, whilst here at Doncaster, his career record reads 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 67pts (+209.4% ROI), from which...

  • over 6/7f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 75.83pts (+421.3%)
  • at C5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.4%)
  • Tony Hamilton : 3/10 (30%) for 21.85pts (+218.5%)
  • C5  @6/7f : 3/7 942.9%) for 24.85pts (+355%)
  • Tony Hamilton @ 6/7f : 3/6 950%) for 25.85pts (+430.9%)
  • Tony Hamilton @ C5 @ 6/7f : 3/4 (75%) for 27.85pts (696.3%)

And those trainer/jockey stats are unsurprising, as overall...Fell + Hamilton + Class 4/5 Flat Handicaps = 21/121 (17.4% SR) for 55.6pts (+45.9% ROI), including...

  • 3-6 yr olds : 20/112 (17.9%) for 61pts (+54.5%)
  • males : 19/106 (17.9%) for 52.7pts (+49.7%)
  • 2-15 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 65.2pts (+100.4%)
  • 3-7 previous runs that season : 18/61 (29.5%) for 102.4pts (+167.8%)
  • June to August : 16/61 (26.2%) for 91.5pts (+150%)
  • on Good to Firm : 12/55 (21.8%) for 15.5pts (+28.2%)
  • rated (OR) 2lbs lower than LTO : 5/30 (16.6%) for 37.43pts (+124.8%)
  • and over 6f : 5/25 (20%) for 22.25pts (+89%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Muatadel @ 11/2 BOG, a price available from Bet365 and SkyBet at 5.35pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 30th June

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NEWCASTLE – JUNE 30

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £79.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions now offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.8% units went through – 13/2 – 8/1 – 10/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 37.4% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/1 – 7/2 (5/2)

Race 3: 60.9% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/1 – 9/1

Race 4: 65.2% of the remaining units went through – 11/2 – 7/1 – 11/4** - 17/2)

Race 5: 44.9% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 – 7/2* - 13/2

Race 6: 50.9% of the units secured the dividend – 7/2** - 5/1 – 6/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newcastle: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 4 (Shanghai Glory), 6 (Raucous) & 1 (Ekhtiyaar)

Leg 2 (12.55): 3 (Dream Of Dreams), 7 (Top Score) & 10 (Never Back Down)

Leg 3 (1.30): 1 (Financial Conduct), 6 (The Grand Visir) & 2 (Dannyday)

Leg 4 (2.05): 15 (Withhold), 6 (On To Victory), 14 (Island Brave) & 12 (Natural Scenery)

Leg 5 (2.40): 3 (Belisa) & 5 (Medalla De Ore)

Leg 6 (3.15): 4 (Florencio) & 8 (Line House)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

12.20: One of the few references I will make to this now being an A/W track, is that course winners have a habit of returning here and running well.  In today’s Placepot races as an example, I should point out that the aggregate course record of the relevant horses stands at 23/68, which equates to 34%%.  Upwards and onward by informing that although five-year-olds have yet to win the race, vintage representatives have secured three of the six available Placepot positions via 42% of the total number of runners.  It’s surprising to find that just two five-year-olds have been entered this time around and both SHAGHAI GLORY and RAUCOUS come here with leading chances from my viewpoint.  The two course winners (see below) are 33/1 chances, quotes which are not unreasonable whereby I’m offering EKHTIYAAR as the main threat to my pair against the field.

Favourite factor: One of the two inaugural 11/4 joint favourites secured a Placepot position when finishing behind horses returned at 6/1 & 14/1. The subsequent 9/2 market leader finished out of the frame.

Record of the two course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Hyperfocus

1/3--Outrage

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12.55: With ten of the last thirteen gold medallists of the ‘Chipchase’ having been sent off at a top price of 7/1, investors can bet with a little bit of confidence I'll wager, though some of the each way horses hail from in-form stables here, whilst four-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals.  Quite why there was only one vintage representative last year still baffles yours truly, though at least we have a trio of relevant raiders to consider this time around.  The ten remaining runners (after one defection already) are priced between 9/2 and 11/1 at the time of writing, whereby the ‘Chipchase’ looks as difficult to call as ever was the case.  DREAM OF DREAMS and TOP SCORE are taken to lead the four-year-olds home, albeit I have not entirely put a line through the chance of Classical Times as yet.  That said, Hugo Palmer’s three-year-old inmate NEVER BACK DOWN poses a definite threat on this occasion.

Favourite factor: Eight market leaders have snared gold in the last twenty one years, whilst thirteen favourites have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

 

1.30: Punters successfully latched onto the two previous winning favourites who had missed out on a run in the ‘Plate’ and THE GRAND VISIR and course winner DANNYDAY could be vying for favouritism as the horses are loaded into the stalls.  Both horses boast undeniable claims, though no more than FINANCIAL CONDUCT whose connections suffered the second most painful ‘cut’ known to man and horse in racing terms!  FINANCIAL CONDUCT was particularly unlucky to miss out on the main event from my viewpoint, having only raced on all weather surfaces to date where he boasts a 6/7 record of finishing ‘in the three’, securing three gold medals for good measure.

Favourite factor: Both of the 7/2 & 7/4 favourites have prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the third race:

1/1—Dannyday

 

2.05: Four-year-olds have secured 11/28 contests in recent times, though just three vintage representatives have been declared this time around.  Eve John Houghton upset many a punter in the opening race at Royal Ascot this year and Eve could prove to be the party-pooper here with ON TO VICTORY holding each way claims at the very least, arguably alongside ISLAND BRAVE who is preferred to Time To Study of the other relevant pair of vintage representatives.  That all said, WITHHOLD could prove to be the proverbial blot on the handicap. Roger Charlton won with another five-year-old three years ago (Quest For More) and Roger could well have been planning this raid all winter.  NATURAL SCENERY was beaten half a length by HIGHER POWER in this event twelve months ago and the pair meet on identical terms.  The only difference being that Saeed Bin Suroor’s five-year-old is nearly twice the price of Higher Power which makes Paul Hanagan’s mount stand out from the crowd in terms of value.

Favourite factor: Six of the last 13 winners scored at 33/1-33/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-14/1-14/1, whilst 11 of the last 20 gold medallists have been recorded in double figures. Four favourites have scored during the study period, whilst 13 of the 24 market leaders have secured Placepot positions in the process.

Record of the four course winners in the Northumberland Plate:

1/1—Higher Power

2/3—Natural Scenery

1/1—Island Brave

1/3—Sir Chauevelin

 

2.40: Horses towards the top of the handicap have held sway though to be entirely honest, just two renewals have been contested to date.  This self-confessed ‘anorak’ clings to any sort of edge he can find however, whereby my trio against the remaining eleven contenders consists of BELISA, MEDALLA DE ORE and LOPES DANCER.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference, with the overnight reserve nomination being awarded to HEDIDDODINTHE.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have secured silver medals alongside Placepot positions thus far.

Record of the six course winners in the fifth contest on the card:

2/5—Lopes Dancer

1/8—Good Time Ahead

1/3—Belisa

2/6—Airton

1/5—Sugarloaf Mountain

1/6—Hediddodinthe

 

3.15: There is something ironic about this being a new race with no stats and facts to lean on.  For 18 years I have been plying my daily trade by searching out ‘edges’ wherever I can find them, a ‘ritual’ which has produced ten published books of which I am proud, given that at school I was told I was something of a ‘useless article’ as was the phrase used in those days.  I can’t pretend I have not got a lump in my throat as I am typing these final words but you don’t want to read that nonsense, you just want me to bow out with a winner!  Hopefully LINE HOUSE will run to each way effect for speculative readers, whilst Roger Fell has found a decent opportunity for his beaten favourite FLORENCIO to make amends.  Sincere thanks for all your loyalty and support and for anyone interested, I am starting up a new (inexpensive) service via my Twitter page from Sunday.  This new service will relate to racing in general from one chosen venue a day, dropping the Placepot emphasis.  My non-existent Bank Manager will not hear of my having a rest and neither will ‘er indoors!  Boyle blessings….

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Newcastle card

Record of course winner in the Placepot finale:

3/12—War Department

1/3—Suzi’s Connoisseur

2/8—Aprovado

1/1—Line House

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th June

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NEWMARKET (JULY COURSE) – JUNE 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £235.80 (6 favourites: 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 63.6% units went through – 5/1 – 2/1* - 9/1

Race 2: 46.5% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 11/2

Race 3: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 13/2 – 7/2 – 10/1 (9/4)

Race 4: 23.0% of the remaining units went through – 9/2 & 7/1 (11/8)

Race 5: 44.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* (Win only)

Race 6: 19.9% of the units secured the dividend – 4/1 & 10/3 (15/8)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (5.35): 1 (Marilyn), 2 (Pour La Victoire) & 7 (Garth Rocket)

Leg 2 (6.10): 4 (Lover’s Knot) & 7 (Rollicking)

Leg 3 (6.45): 6 (Nicklaus), 2 (Rogue) & 4 (Kakhoor)

Leg 4 (7.20): 4 (Midnight Blue), 2 (Pippin) & 3 (Poetic Steps)

Leg 5 (7.55): 4 (Gorgeous Noora) & 1 (Tirania)

Leg 6 (8.30): 7 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Breath Caught) & 2 (Capton)

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Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.35: The twelve winners of the opening race have scored at 10/1-9/1-9/1-8/1-8/1-8/1-7/1-6/1-11/2-5/1-5/1-7/2-9/4** to date, whilst 20 of the 38 horses (53%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at 7/1 or more.  The stats suggest that you should treat this opening race with caution and perhaps only become financially involved via our favourite wager, leaving others to invest from a win perspective.  The last ten winners (and twelve of the thirteen in total) have carried a minimum burden of 8-10 whereby my trio against the other five contenders consists of POUR LA VICTOIRE, MARILYN and GARTH ROCKET.  Out of interest, four-year-olds have won five of the last nine renewals with MARILYN fancied to carry on the good work on behalf of the vintage.  Whatever happens in the race, the trade press quote of the recent course winner POUR LA VICTOIRE was well wide of the mark at 9/2.  5/2 could be nearer the mark if current overnight support is sustained.

Favourite factor: Eight of the fourteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions to date.  Successful favourites from a win perspective had been conspicuous only by their absence until four years ago, when the 9/4 joint favourites filled the 'short field' frame.  That said, three subsequent results have reverted to type. New readers might like to know that the term 'short field' relates to races for 5/6/7 runners in which only the first two horses home qualify for each way/toteplacepot positions, especially if a non-runner rears its ugly head to deny us a ‘dead eight’ event.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Pour La Victoire (good to firm)

 

6.10: There is plenty of (realistic) money in the positive queue for Richard Hannon’s Holy Roman Emperor filly ROLLICKING at the time of writing, despite the fact that LOVER’S KNOT comes to the gig with a good reputation from the guys and gals down on Charlie Appleby’s estate.  The latter named Invincible Spirit filly is a half-sister to Key Victory who won on his only start as a juvenile, whilst Rollocking kept on well for pressure behind New Winds recently.  It’s difficult to envisage both of these horses finishing out of the frame in this grade/company.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have claimed Placepot positions by winning the two renewals to date.

 

6.45: All ten winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-3 which eliminates just the one runner in the list unfortunately. I find it more than a little surprising that the analysis written by the trade press reporter mentions four horses in the race without including NICKLAUS who is the first name on my Placepot team sheet this evening.  William Haggas continues to send out his horses to great effect in all grades of races and this is another inmate which has been supported on the exchanges overnight, which comes as no surprise to yours truly at all.  Connections might have most to fear from ROGUE and FAKHOOR at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (7/2-9/4-11/4**-5/2) winners.

 

7.20: Mt Augustus looks weighted out of the equation from my viewpoint in this win only contest, though the other three runners all have claims on the best of their form, thoughts which suggest that the 4/7 quote about MIDNIGHT BLUE in the trade press looks too skinny.  Indeed, Sir Mark Prescott’s projected favourite is not far off the even money mark at the time of writing which if anything, is a little generous!  Whichever way the (betting) wind blows, MIDNIGHT BLUE will be joined by PIPPIN and POETIC STEPS in my Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: The seven favourites to date have secured three Placepot positions to date, statistics which include two (11/8 & 3/1) winners.

 

7.55: TIRANIA is another Haggas representative on the card which is attracting support, with connections probably having most to fear from Luca Cumani’s Raven’s Pass filly GORGEOUS NOORA who was beaten less that two lengths on her seasonal bow.  Looking at the form figures in the race, Magical Dreams can be expected to attract tens of thousands of units but that could be a good reason to swerve James Fanshawe’s raider on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Newmarket programme.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

2/9—Syrian Pearl (good to firm & good to soft)

 

8.30: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and in a fascinating last leg of our favourite wager and KNOW YOUR LIMIT is a sporting selection to extent the vintage trend.  Four of the last six runners sent out by trainer Ed Walker have secured Placepot positions, stats which include two (13/2 & 9/2) winners for good measure.  My trio against the remaining six contenders is complete by BEREATH CAUGHT and CAPTON.

Favourite factor:  All nine winners of the Placepot finale have scored at a top price of 9/1, with two (9/4 & 5/4) favourites having prevailed down the years.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Brorocco (good to firm)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd June

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EPSOM – JUNE 2 

 

Corresponding Placepot dividends for the last seven years at Epsom on Derby Day:

2017: £503.60 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £1,364.50 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

2015: £4,314.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 4 unplaced)

2014: £18.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 placed)

2013: £1,135.00 (7 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2012: £123.10 (7 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £304.50 (6 favourites: No winners - 2 placed - 4 unplaced)

Average dividend: £1,108.98 - 45 favourites - 12 winners - 13 placed - 20 unplaced

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 3 (Poet’s Prince) & 5 (Ship Of The Fen)

Leg 2 (2.35): 3 (Shenanigans), 5 (Stage Name) & 1 (Diaphora)

Leg 3 (3.10): 3 (Caspian Dream) & 1 (Arod)

Leg 4 (3.45): 2 (Caspian Prince), 13 (Just That Lord), 16 (Tanasoq), 18 (Bahamian Sunset) & 12 (Harry Hurricane)

Leg 5 (4.30): 3 (Hazapour) & 11 (Young Rascal)

Leg 6 (5.15): 9 (Reshoun), 10 (Star Of The East) & 14 (Golden Wolf)

Suggested stake: 360 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: As an additional guide for toteplacepot enthusiasts on Derby Day, I can reveal that the last fourteen Derby cards at Epsom have produced an average Placepot dividend of £831.51.  94 favourites have emerged via the 84 races resulting in the following Placepot favourite stats: 22 winners--28 placed--44 unplaced.  Ten of the last eleven winners of the opening event on the card have carried weights of 9-2 or less, stats which led me to suggest that

Goodwood Zodiac would outrun his price two years ago before William Knight’s raider finished second at 33/1.  Drochaid was short listed last year before winning at 11/2.  POET’S PRINCE and SHIP OF THE FEN have plenty to offer potential investors to kick start the day, whilst offering MACAQUE as an outsider to consider.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won during the study period.  13 of the 23 favourites have claimed Placepot positions in the process. Nine renewals have slipped by since the last favourite obliged.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – most recent result listed first):

3-7-6 (8 ran-good)

14-15-3 (15 ran-food to soft)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

6-3-5 (11 ran-good)

7-6-1 (11 ran-good)

7-13-6 (11 ran-good to firm)

7-6-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-9 (12 ran-good to firm)

1-15-7-12 (17 ran-good)

6-1-5 (12 ran-good)

10-1-2 (14 ran-good)

8-11-10 (15 ran-good to firm)

8-11-9 (11 ran-good)

1-14-16-2 (18 ran-good)

11-13-14-15 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (10 ran-soft)

1-6-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

1-14-7 (12 ran-good to soft)

2-3-9 (15 ran-good to soft)

11-9-5 (11 ran-good)

Epsom record of the course winner in the opening contest:

1/1—Corazon Espinado (good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have won ten of the last eighteen renewals of this contest and with half (4/8) of the declarations representing the vintage, the trend could well be extended. The pick of the quartet from my viewpoint are SHENANIGANS, STAGE NAME and DIAPHORA.  The trio are offered in order of preference whilst I’m not totally writing off the chance of the other vintage representative Soul Silver, despite the overnight quote of 25/1 for David Simcock’s Dragon Pulse filly.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last fifteen favourites have prevailed as have ten of the latest twenty market leaders, during which time the biggest priced gold medallist was returned at just 9/1.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-8-10 (10 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to soft)

1-4-8 (9 ran-good)

6-2-3 (10 ran-good)

1-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-3-1 (8 ran-good)

7-1-8 (8 ran-good)

5-7-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

5-8-7 (8 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-good)

6-4-5 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-2-3 (10 ran-good)

4 (3 ran-good)

10-1-5 (8 ran-good)

4-5-1 (8 ran-good)

6-5 (6 ran-soft)

2-5-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

3-4-7 (10 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (6 ran-good to soft)

3-5-6 (8 ran-good)

 

3.10: I rarely mention the ‘sister’ bet of the toteplacepot but on this occasion I have some interesting stats to offer, with this race starting the ‘insurance’ (Quadpot) bet if that is the way you view the wager.  The average totequadpot dividend on Oaks day at Epsom during the last 14 years paid £100.58.  Fifty eight favourites emerged, resulting in 18 winners, 14 were placed and 26 unplaced.  It would help a great deal if this ‘dead eight’ field remained intact as I have left the race to last to see how many options I have relating to my permutation.  Just two runners are available to yours truly and the pin has somehow fallen on the pair CENTURY DREAM and course winner AROD.  The overnight reserve is listed as last year’s winner Sovereign Debt.

Favourite factor: Sixteen of the last twenty winners have scored at 8/1 or less, statistics which include six winning favourites.  That said, only four of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

2-6 (7 ran-good)

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1-11 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-1 (7 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good)

7-6 (7 ran-good to soft)

6-4 (6 ran-good)

1-8-6 (8 ran-good to firm)

8-2-9 (9 ran-good)

4-8-7 (8 ran-good)

5-8-4 (8 ran-good)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

2-5-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

1-4 (7 ran-good)

3-1-10 (11 ran-good)

9-11-3 (10 ran-good)

6-8-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

6-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-3 (5 ran-good)

4-2 (6 ran-good)

3-1-2 (10 ran-good)

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/2—Arod (good)

1/2—Sovereign Debt (good)

 

3.45: I tend to offer draw statistics in big races where possible for readers to determine where potential advantages lie, whether or not the powers that be have interfered with stall positions in recent years!  I leave it to readers to work out if there is any advantage to home in on. I have never been a 'sit on the fence' man like some 'media experts' who forever drone on about my type of work being futile given that it all depends on where the 'pace in the race' is coming from.  I think even 'they' will admit that in the Epsom Dash, pace is everywhere to be seen!  Six-year-olds have secured five of the last thirteen renewals, whilst nine of the last twelve gold medallists have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.  Horses emerging from ‘trap one’ have finished in the frame in five of the last nine renewals, winning on two occasions. JUST THAT LORD (1/20) demands to be included accordingly, whilst CASPIAN PRINCE is on a hat trick in the race has not faired too badly in trap two either!  His record of 4/5 at this unique circuit is probably one of the best of all time, particularly given the type of races that Michael Appleby’s grand servant generally contests.  My other trio against the field come from those drawn further wide, namely TANSOQ (16), BAHAMIAN SUNRISE (13) and HARRY HURRICANE (20) who might even have an advantage if plenty of moisture remains in the ground, albeit that is unlikely with the Epsom surface having been built on chalk.

Favourite factor: Only four of the last twenty favourites have finished in the frame.  Just one (5/1) market leader prevailed during the last eleven years during which time, the average price of the winner was 11/1 which is a perfectly respectable return in such a competitive race.

Draw factor (five furlongs):

1-10-12-5 (19 ran-good)

17-19-20-18 (17 ran-good to soft)

1-7-18-5 (20 ran-good to firm)

14-17-12-13 (19 ran-good)

19-1-5-13 (17 ran-good)

2-16-15-3 (20 ran-good to firm)

9-13-10-1 (16 ran-good to firm)

15-14-16-9 (19 ran-good to firm)

18-12-11-1 (18 ran-good)

8-19-12-17 (19 ran-good)

15-16-17-12 (18 ran-good)

17-8-20-5 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-3-5-15 (20 ran—good)

8-10-2-3 (20 ran—good to firm)

10-11-8 (11 ran—good)

1-6-9 (11 ran—good to soft)

12-6-7-17 (17 ran—good to firm)

3-1-12 (12 ran—good)

11-2-9 (11 ran—good)

10-2-4 (15 ran—good)

Course winners in the ‘Dash’:

1/6—Duke Of Firenze (good)

4/5—Caspian Prince (2 x good & 2 x good to soft)

1/4—Desert Law (good to firm)

1/5—Pettochside (good)

1/1—Bahamian Sunrise (good)

 

4.30: Aidan O’Brien has saddled five winners and twelve placed horses in the Derby during the last nineteen years and with six of those placed horses having been returned at 100/1--25/1--25/1--20/1--16/1 and 14/1, so few (if any) of his runners should be ignored.  York's Dante Stakes is far and away the best prep race these days, though it is worth mentioning that as far as I can recall, only Workforce has won this 'Blue Riband' having been beaten on the Knavesmire in that particular trial.  SAXON WARRIOR appears to be the main hope for the O’Brien team this year, though the favourite has been drifting in recent days, mainly because of the recent rain and the seemingly negative draw (1).  There is also the worry that the Deep Impact colt might not stay the trip after showing tremendous speed to win the Newmarket Guineas in such emphatic style.  I am leaving Ryan Moore’s mount out of my Placepot permutation, though mainly because Saxon Warrior will represent poor value for money, especially as if the favourite is beaten, there must be a chance that the defeat was caused because he failed to see out the twelve furlong which suggests that he might finish out of the money entirely. ROARING LION is another who has been friendless in the market these last few days and with Frankie waxing lyrical about his mount HAZAPOUR, the each way money on the day is likely to be for Dermot Weld’s Shamardal colt.  YOUNG RASCAL might have the most improvement in the field with plenty of untapped potential seemingly in place, especially having won at Chester after meeting plenty of trouble in running.  Of the really big priced runners, SEVENNA STAR could sneak the frame at around 25/1 for John Gosden who is seeking his third winner of this ‘Blue Riband’ event.

Favourite factor: Eighteen of the last nineteen winners of the Derby have scored at 7/1 or less, statistics which include seven favourites of one sort or another.  Eleven of the last fifteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions. Camelot was the first odds on favourite to win the Epsom Derby six years ago since Shergar obliged back in 1981.  Only a week ago, Saxon Warrior looked sure to be an odds on chance on Saturday, though that might not be the case now.

Draw factor:

14-13-7 (18 ran-good)

9-15-8 (16 ran-good to soft)

8-10-7 (12 ran-good to firm)

12-2-11 (16 ran-good)

10-5-11 (12 ran-good)

5-3-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

7-12-13 (13 ran-good to firm)

8-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

4-10-2 (12 ran-good)

3-14-10 (16 ran-good)

14-8-2 (17 ran-good)

10-11-18 (18 ran-good to firm)

5-12-4 (13 ran-good)

6-11-3 (14 ran-good)

4-16-8 (20 ran-good)

9-12-4 (12 ran-good to soft)

10-6-11 (12 ran-good to firm)

15-7-10 (15 ran-good)

1-5-17 (16 ran-good)

14-1-11 (15 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the Derby this year:

1/2—Dee Ex Bee (heavy)

 

5.15: Four-year-olds have claimed ten of the last twenty renewals including nine of the last fourteen contests (vintage representatives have finished 1-2-3-4 twice in the last nine years + first, second and fourth four years ago). I am pinning my hopes on RESHOUN (drawn 14/19), STAR OF THE EAST (10) and GOLDEN WOLF (2).  The very best of luck with all your bets on Derby Day, hoping that the weather stays dry (aside from personal bias towards some horses) for those braving the elements on the Downs this year.

Favourite factor: Only one favourite has won the Placepot finale during the past twenty years, whilst just five of the other nineteen market leaders have additionally claimed Placepot positions.

Draw factor (twelve furlongs):

9-12-4 (10 ran-good)

16-14-17-5 (17 ran-good to soft)

13-1-19-17 (19 ran-good to firm)

5-2-8 (15 ran-good)

11-12-10 (12 ran-good)

11-14-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

3-7-6 (15 ran-good to firm)

6-1-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-8-2-9 (16 ran-good)

3-15-9 (15 ran-good)

16-1-9-15 (16 ran-good)

10-12-14 (14 ran-good to firm)

15-4-20-9 (good)

10-12-3 (13 ran-good)

4-6-2 (8 ran-good)

2-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

9-2-8 (11 ran-good to firm)

4-2-1 (12 ran-good)

3-5-7 (11 ran-good)

1-11-13 (15 ran-good)

Course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Great Hall (good)

1/2—Soldier In Action (good)

1/1—Star Of The East (good)

2/6—Lorelina (2 x good)

1/15—Whinging Willie (heavy)

2/8—Barwick (soft & haeavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2018

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Thursday's Runner was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Codicil @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 8/1 (Towards rear, never involved : just awful!)

We now start a new month via Friday's...

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth 3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A fairly short price about a horse that has failed to win any of his 16 starts to date, but just like my own current form, his has to improve soon, surely?

In fairness to this 4yr old gelding he was only beaten by two necks when finishing third last time out, 17 days ago and despite still being a maiden he has made the frame in...

  • 4 runs from 7 attempts at 1 mile
  • 4 of 5 races in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 of 5 on Good to Firm
  • 2 of 4 with today's jockey Sean Levey
  • 2 of 3 this season
  • 2 of 2 at Class 5
  • and 2 of 2 within 16 to 30 days of his last run

Aside from that and more generally, blindly backing all Richard Hannon (Jnr) runners here at Doncaster has been a profitable venture with 34 winners from 250 (13.6% SR) generating profits of 65.3pts at a healthy ROI of 26.1%, even without adding any filters! The most obvious filter here is to focus on handicap contests, where 15 winners from 107 (14%) have made 98pts (+91.6%) profit and that's what we'll stick with.

Of those 107 Donny 'cappers...

    • those last seen 6-75 days ago are 14/91 (15.4%) for 106.1pts (+116.6%)
    • males are 13/88 (14.8%) for 81.9pts (+93%)
    • 3/4 yr olds are 13/77 (16.9%) for 117.1pts (+152.1%)
    • those placed 3rd to 7th LTO are 11/55 (20%) for 91pts (+165.4%)
    • those ridden by Sean Levey are 4/30 (13.3%) for 14.7pts (+49.1%)
    • on Good to Firm, it's 4/26 (15.4%) for 52.7pts (+202.5%)
    • Class 5 runners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 51.8pts (+398.2%)
    • and those competing for a prize worth less than £4,000 are 4/11 (36.4%) for 53.8pts (+488.8%)

...and from the above... 3/4 yr old males at 6-75 days since last run = 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 105pts (+194.5% ROI)

In addition to the above, over the last two years the yard is 35/257 (13.6% SR) for 159.5pts (+62.1% ROI) with their milers in the May to August period with those racing on good to firm winning 15 of 98 (15.3%) for 145.5pts at an ROI of some 148.5%.

And I'll wrap this up with a look at Mr Hannon's record in Class 5 Flat handicaps, as he's one of a handful of trainers that I follow in this fairly specialised type of race. If you'd blindly backed all of the Hannon C5 Flat 'cappers so far, you'd have had 72 winners from 474 with that 15.2% strike rate yielding profits of 81.2pts at an ROI of 17.1% and these are good numbers from blind backing.

In the context of today's race, however, those 474 runners are...

  • 57 from 360 (15.8%) for 101.5pts (+28.2%) as 3-5 yr olds
  • 66 from 347 (19%) for 176.6pts (+50.9%) running after a break of 6-30 days
  • 29 from 160 (18.1%) for 102.8pts (+64.3%) on good to firm ground
  • 16 from 104 (15.4%) for 29.9pts (+28.7%) when ridden by Sean Levey
  • and 14 from 85 (16.5%) for 39.5pts (+46.5%) in June

...3-5 yr olds racing on Good to Firm, 6-30 days after the last run are 41/181 (22.7% SR) for 171.4pts (+94.7% ROI) with those racing in June winning 11 of 52 (21.2%) for 56.4pts (+108.4%) whilst Sean Levey has 9 winners from 25 (36%) for 51.7pts (+143.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG   which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st June

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EPSOM – JUNE 1

 

Epsom Placepot dividends on Oaks day during the last seven years:

2017: 207.00 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 4 unplaced)

2016: £339.40 (7 favourites – 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

2015: £32.90 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 5 placed - 1 unplaced)

2014: £27.10 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

2013: £881.00 (7 favourites: 2 winners & 5 unplaced)

2012: £135.30 (6 favourites: 2 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2011: £46.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

Average Placepot dividend: £238.41 - 46 favourites - 15 winners - 10 placed - 21 unplaced

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 76.1% units went through – 7/4 & 4/1 (13/8)

Race 2: 33.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1** - 20/1 – 14/1 (3/1**)

Race 3: 56.3% of the remaining units went through – 9/4* - 9/1 – 11/2

Race 4: 10.4% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 16/1 – 14/1 (11/4)

Race 5: 83.0% of the remaining units went through – 6/1 – 8/11* - 16/1

Race 6: 28.6% of the units secured the dividend – 8/1 – 5/2 – 3/1 (2/1)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Epsom: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 4 (Marie’s Diamond), 2 (Itstheonlyway) & 8 (True Belief)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Medburn Dream), 2 (King’s Pavillion) & 8 (Masham Star)

Leg 3 (3.10): 1 (Cracksman) & 2 (Hawksbill)

Leg 4 (3.45): 4 (Ajman King) & 5 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.30): 9 (Wild Illusion) & 1 (Bye Bye Baby)

Leg 6 (5.15): 2 (Aurum), 3 (Kings Shield) & 5 (Rufus King)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.00: Mark Johnston has secured five renewals of the Listed ‘Woodcote’ event during the last sixteen years and in MARIE’S DIAMOND, the trainer has a horse which could figure prominently again at the very least.  'Team Hannon' have produced three of the last five winners, notwithstanding the fact that one of the team passed the post in front twelve months ago before losing the race on a technicality.  ITSTHEONLYWAY is the stable representative with a chance this time around with the same comment applying to Charlie Appleby’s Excelebration colt TRUE BELIEF.

Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders, two joint and one co favourite have won of late, while 13 of the last 24 favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor (six furlongs – most recent result listed first):

4-5 (7 ran-good)

3-7 (6 ran-soft)

6-2-3 (9 ran-good to firm)

1-8-9 (8 ran-good)

1-6-4 (11 ran-good)

4-8 (7 ran-good to firm)

8-1-7 (8 ran-good to firm)

5-8-6 (9 ran-good to firm)

11-10-3 (12 ran-good)

3-10-2 (10 ran-good)

11-9-1 (13 ran-good)

1-4 (6 ran-good to firm)

2-5-9 (10 ran-good)

1-7-5 (8 ran-good)

3-8-1 (10 ran-good)

5-4 (6 ran-good to soft)

2-8-7 (11 ran-good to firm)

8-2 (7 ran-good)

2-1-7 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-5 (7 ran-good)

 

2.35: Four-year-olds have called the shots in this race, as eleven vintage representatives have won during the last twenty years (including nine of the last sixteen--vintage raiders finished second and third in 2013 at 16/1 & 10/1).  Four-year-olds were returned at 20/1-10/1-33/1 the previous year when finishing immediately behind the five-year-old winner.  This all said, five-year-olds have fought back of late, having claimed four of the last eight contests.  13 of the last 14 winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4.  Putting the stats and facts together produces a short list of MEDBURN DREAM, KING’S PAVILION and MASHAM STAR.

Favourite factor: Just two favourites have prevailed during the last eleven years though that said, all eleven winners have scored at a top price of 12/1 which in the context of a competitive handicap, is a half decent return for punters.  Seven of the thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Draw factor' (eight and a half furlongs):

6-11-7 (12 ran-good)

7-5-3 (12 ran-good to soft)

11-6-12 (12 ran-good)

2-13-1-15 (16 ran-good)

11-6-13 (14 ran-good to soft)

7-4-12-1 (17 ran-good)

4-12-17-15 (18 ran-good)

10-8-6 (14 ran-good)

12-3-8 (9 ran-good)

11-14-10 (14 ran-good)

4-9-14 (14 ran-good to soft)

15-2-1-12 (16 ran-good)

4-1-6 (11 ran-good)

8-11-7 (13 ran-good)

5-1-3-15 (16 ran-good)

1-10-5 (10 ran-soft)

3-9-2 (11 ran-good to firm)

3-10-16 (14 ran-good to soft)

9-8-5 (14 ran-good to soft)

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15-14-7 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of the two course winners in the second event on the Oaks card:

1/3—King’s Pavilion (good to soft)

1/3—Medburn Dream (soft)

 

3.10: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last nineteen renewals and with CRACKSMAN looking better than ever, John Gosden’s proven soft ground winner looks home and hosed, despite some serious opposition. With Aidan O’Brien having won eight of the last thirteen renewals of the Coronation Cup, the chance of IDAHO is obviously respected, even though ground conditions seem to have gone against the Galileo raider this time around.  HAWKSBILL therefore jumps into the slot reserved as the ‘main threat’, though Charlie Appleby’s representative is silver medal bound at best from my viewpoint, despite his impressive 3/3 record under soft conditions.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nineteen favourites have won, whilst fourteen market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions in during the study period.

Draw factor: (twelve furlongs):

3-4-1 (8 ran-good to soft)

5 (4 ran-good to firm)

7-5 (7 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good to firm)

1-3 (5 ran-good)

8-5-1 (9 ran-good)

8-5-1 (8 ran-good)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

2-3 (7 ran-good to soft)

5-2 (6 ran-good)

9-6 (7 ran-good)

5-1-3 (11 ran-good)

4-8-7 (9 ran-good)

3-4 (6 ran-soft)

1-2 (6 ran-good to firm)

2 (4 ran-good to soft)

3-2 (7 ran-good to soft)

2-1 (7 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the Coronation Cup:

1/2--Cracksman (good)

 

3.45: Four-year-olds have dominated this event as vintage representatives have snared eight of the last twenty renewals, whilst nine of the last eleven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.  Putting the stats and facts together produces an overnight short list of AJMAN KING, last year’s winner NOT SO SLEEPY and DARK RED.  The trio is listed in order of preference to put it mildly, with dual (unbeaten) course winner AJMAN KING at home on the type of conditions we can expect on Friday.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the course of the last twenty years, whilst only seven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions over the period, even though some joint favourites have been involved as you might imagine in such a competitive event.

Draw factor' (ten furlongs):

2-5-8 (14 ran-good)

1-4-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

7-13-10 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-10-6 (12 ran-good)

12-4-5 (8 ran-good to soft)

8-2-3 (13 ran-good)

8-1-5 (11 ran-good)

10-5-3 (12 ran-good)

4-11-6 (10 ran-good)

5-2-1 (10 ran-good)

1-4-11 (12 ran-good to soft)

13-12-4-2 (17 ran-good)

10-8-15-14 (17 ran-good)

1-3-7 (11 ran-good)

6-7-2 (14 ran-good)

10-1-9 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-11-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

14-7-6 (14 ran-good)

10-3-8 (15 ran-good)

3-8-10 (14 ran-good)

Epsom record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Dark Red (soft)

1/4—Banditry (good to firm)

2/2—Ajman King (good & heavy)

1/1—Not So Sleepy (good)

1/2—Brorocco (good)

1/5—Emenem (good)

 

4.30: There are contrasting stats relating to outsiders in the 'favourite factor' sector below because although lots of outsiders have won the Epsom Oaks of late, few others have reached the frame via an exact science.  John Gosden was waxing lyrical about the chance of Enable this time last year before the exceptional filly got the better on an Aidan O’Brien odds on chance before going to greater things.  Charlie Appleby is also sweet on his Dubawi filly WILD ILLUSION this time around and having won on soft ground in the past, William Buick’s mount look a certainty for the frame at the very least.  With Aidan O’Brian saddling five of the other eight runners, the trainer will still be hoping that he can claim his seventh victory in the race and I believe that the value for money call from his quintet is BYE BYE BABY.

Favourite factor: Only 18 of the 126 horses sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed toteplacepot positions (five winners) during the last 20 years.  On the other hand, five of the last ten winners have scored at odds ranging between 20/1 & 50/1.  Seven clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Oaks in recent times.  15 of the 22 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions during the study period.

Draw factor' (twelve furlongs):

9-5-7 (9 ran-good)

4-9-5 (9 ran-good to soft)

2-1-11 (11 ran-good)

9-10-17 (17 ran-good)

3-1-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-2 (12 ran-good)

7-12-2 (13 ran-good)

15-4-2 (14 ran-good)

5-2-9 (10 ran-good)

13-10-11 (16 ran-good)

11-9-6 (14 ran-good to soft)

5-3-10 (10 ran-good)

2-4-9 (12 ran-good)

3-6 (7 ran-good)

7-11-9 (15 ran-good)

13-10-3 (14 ran-soft)

10-13-6 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-15-7 (16 ran-good to soft)

5-9-3 (10 ran-good to soft)

5-4-8 (8 ran-good)

 

5.15: Eleven of the last twelve winners of the Placepot finale have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and though that trend is guaranteed to be extended this time around, I have left the stat in for your records.  Whatever happens to Charlie Appleby’s projected favourite in the Oaks, stable companion AURUM has a leading chance in the final leg of our favourite wager, with connections having most to fear from KINGS SHIELD and RUFUS KING.  I’m adding Mark Johnston’ latter named runner because although he has something to find via the form book, Rufus King will be battling all the way to the line which might not be the case of the projected favourite Kings Shield on ground which might prove to be his downfall.

Favourite factor: Seven clear market leaders and two joint favourites have won to date via twenty renewals, taking into account that the favourite ten years ago was withdrawn shortly before the off before a new market could be formed.  12 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Draw factor' (seven furlongs):

3-7 (7 ran-good)

6-2-7 (8 ran-good to soft)

7-2-4 (9 ran-good)

6-2 (5 ran-good)

1-5 (7 ran-good to soft)

7-2 (6 ran-good)

5-1 (6 ran-good)

1-3-6 (8 ran-good)

9-2-5 (9 ran-good)

3-9 (7 ran-good)

2-3-10 (9 ran-good to soft)

5-4 (6 ran-good)

7-2-9 (9 ran-good)

2-9-7 (9 ran-good)

3-5 (5 ran-soft)

6-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

5-9-2 (9 ran-good to soft)

1-4 (6 ran-good)

1-5-9 (9 ran-good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 19th May

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NEWBURY – MAY 19

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £131.40 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 46.4% units went through – 3/1* & 4/1

Race 2: 25.7% of the remaining units when through – 4/1 – 7/1 – 11/1 (5/2)

Race 3: 51.1% of the remaining units went through – 8/1 – 7/2* - 9/1

Race 4: 67.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/4* - 9/2 – 25/1

Race 5: 48.8% of the remaining units went through – 2/1* & 20/1

Race 6: 27.5% of the units secured the dividend – 9/4 & 15/2 (2/1)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 7 (Shababby), 4 (Juliet Capulet) & 3 (Eqtidaar)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Crystal Ocean) & 2 (Raheen House)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Chief Ironside), 7 (He’s Amazing) & 3 (Dukhan)

Leg 4 (3.40): 2 (Addeybb), 4 (Beat The Bank) & 12 (Suedois)

Leg 5 (4.15): 3 (Itstheonlyway) & 6 (The Irish Rover)

Leg 6 (4.50): 7 (Stream Song), 4 (Crystal Hope) & 2 (Arcadian Cat)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50 (Carnarvon Stakes): 'Team Hannon' has secured three of the last eight contests, though it’s a big ask for 33/1 chance All Out to improve the ratio this time around in what I consider to be the best race on the card. That would not be difficult given the line up in the Lockinge this season which media commentators will no doubt describe as a wonderful renewal!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that SHABAABY, JULIET CAPULET and EQTIDAAR should all be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings, the trio having been listed in order of preference.  Owen Burrows (Shabaaby) secured a 13/2 double on the Newmarket card yesterday, his recent ratio now standing at 4/9.  Accordingly, 8/1 looks a tad too big about Owen’s Kyllachy colt, albeit the ground remains an unknown factor given his two soft going successes to date.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have prevailed during the last thirteen years during which time, ten gold medallists have scored at a top price of 4/1.

 

2.25 (Aston Park Stakes):  Four-year-olds have won 11 of the last 20 renewals of this Listed staying event and vintage representatives CRYSTAL OCEAN and RAHEEN HOUSE look sure to go close this time around.  The odds are extremely cramped about the first named Sir Michael Stoute raider, though the 11/2 quote (across the board early doors this morning) fopr RAHEEN HOUSE represents a potential each way play given the 11/8 place price in this ‘short field’ contest.  New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Favourite factor: 12 of the 20 favourites have reached the frame (five winners), whilst the previous 18 winners had scored at odds of 8/1 or less before the 2016 gold medallist reared its ugly head at 14/1.

Record of the course winner in the second race:

2/4—Scarlet Dragon (Good to firm & good to soft)

 

3.00: The last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 whereby CHIEF IRONSIDE (drawn 1/11), HE’S AMAZING (9) and DUKHAN (2) will represent yours truly in my Placepot permutation on Saturday.  Horses drawn in the lowest three stall positions have produced five of the last seven winners, gaining at Placepot position between them on all seven occasions.  Last year’s 8/1 winner was described by yours truly as “the clear pick on this occasion”.  Connect (the complete outsider in the field) would have been considered had there been moisture in the turf.

Favourite factor: Six favourites (of one description or another) have prevailed during the study period, whilst 16 of the last 26 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Draw factor (ten furlongs – the most recent result listed first):

1-7-12 (13 ran-soft)

3-4-5 (15 ran-good)

3-5-8 (13 ran-good)

7-8-1 (8 ran-good to firm)

2-5 (7 ran-good to firm)

14-3-5 (13 ran-good to soft)

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1-6-9 (8 ran-good to firm)

11-1-3 (15 ran-good to firm)

12-9-11 (12 ran-soft)

5-9-12 (12 ran-good)

6-11-13 (13 ran-good to soft)

1-15-8 (15 ran-soft)

6-9-10 (9 ran-firm)

8-1-3 (10 ran-good)

5-9-13 (13 ran-good)

6-5-2 (13 ran-good to firm)

3 (3 ran-soft)

8-2-3 (8 ran-good to firm)

4-6-8 (9 ran-soft)

3-4 (7 ran-good to firm)

 

3.40 (Group 1 Lockinge Stakes): Four-year-olds have won 15 of the last 20 renewals of the ‘Lockinge’ whilst the last eight winners carried official marks of 124-136-127-126-125-121-117-122 into the contest (average ratio of 125).  I suggested two years ago that the contest represented a drop in class which proved to be the case via the ‘117 winner’ and with this year’s runners offering an average figure of 113, much can be said for this latest renewal.  This factor suggests that outsiders should be considered alongside those towards the head of the market, perhaps none more so than a 25/1 chance, namely SUEDOIS, albeit the lack of a recent run tempers enthusiasm to a fashion.  As short as 14/1 in two places this morning, 25/1 is available with Betfair and Paddy Power at the time of writing.  Horses towards the top of the market that grab my attention include the improving four-year-old raiders ADDEYBB and BEAT THE BANK.  This is a Group 1 race in name only.  Only if Limato were to win well could we carried away with the performance of the winner, though investors in Henry Candy’s representative know that seeing out the mile trip is taken on trust.  That said, connections couldn’t have wished for an easier opportunity, especially on ground that will offer the Tagula gelding every chance of lasting home.  From a Placepot perspective however, Harry Bentley’s mount will not offer value for money, that’s for sure.

Favourite factor: The last 20 winners have all scored at 9/1 or less (eleven winning favourites), whilst twelve market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.  Seven of the last eleven market leaders have won (joint favourites were recorded three years ago), as have ten favourites during the last fifteen years.

Draw factor (eight furlongs):

5-4-9 (8 ran-soft)

6-7-2 (12 ran-good)

3-15-6 (16 ran-good)

3-2-5 (8 ran--good to firm)

5-7-6 (12 ran-good to firm)

6-7 (6 ran-good)

4-7 (7 ran-good to firm)

3-1-7 (9 ran-good to firm)

10-6-2 (11 ran-soft)

7-3-10 (11 ran-good)

7-8-2 (8 ran-good to soft)

10-2-3 (9 ran-soft)

5-1-11 (8 ran-firm)

3-8-14 (15 ran-good)

4-6 (6 ran-good)

7-8-4 (10 ran-good to firm)

5-6 (7 ran-soft)

1-2 (7 ran-good to firm)

6-4 (6 ran-soft)

8-4-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

Record of the course winner in the 'Lockinge':

1/2—Limato (good to firm)

 

4.15:  Newbury continues to be the flat (turf) track to target in Placepot wagers.  When I wrote my first Placepot book back in 1994, Newbury was the top venue in terms of average Placepot dividends on the level and not much has changed.  Before I go any further I should report one startling fact from my perspective in that Richard Hannon (the younger) has already saddled well over 400 horses at Newbury, 53% of which were juveniles, stats which have produced 25 relevant gold medallists.  Richard has won this event in each of the last two years and has offered the green light to his dual winner ITSTHEONLYWAY on this occasion.  Bookmakers are likely to take THE IRISH ROVER on I’ll wager, given that Aiden O’Brien’s January foal ‘slept in the stalls’ at Ascot recently before making up the ground when the race had already been as good as lost.  A break on even terms can surely result in a Placepot position today, at the very least.

Favourite factor:

Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, statistics which include one (2/1) favourite from a win perspective.

Draw factor (six furlongs):

4-8 (6 ran-soft)

5-1-6 (8 ran-good)

3-7-4 (8 ran-good)

Record of the course winner in the field:

1/1—Dave Dexter (good to soft)

 

4.50: John Gosden has claimed two of the last seven renewals of this fascinating Placepot finale and the popular trainer saddles STREAM SONG this time around.  It’s worth noting that John was responsible for the beaten (2/1) favourite in the race twelve months ago however, whereby I feel duty bound to include CRYSTAL HOPE and ARCADIAN CAT in the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last thirteen years, whilst eleven market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2018

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Friday's Runner was...

7.30 Newcastle : Insurgence @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We end what has been a poor week with Saturday's...

6.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo) on soft ground worth £7763 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got a 3 yr old who has made a good start to his career finishing 511 in his three outings to date and whilst he's never raced on turf before, he has shown versatility by running well on three different A/W tracks (Kempton, Newcastle & Lingfield).

He makes a handicap debut today for trainer Charlie Appleby, who is not only in good form of late, but has an excellent record here on Town Moor, making this venue probably the ideal pick for a turf/hcp debut for a 3 yr old.

Charlie's recent form stacks up like this...

  • 24/48 over the last 60 days
  • 13/28 over the last 30
  • and 2/5 in the past week

In addition/alongside the above, he's already 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+64.7% ROI) for the "new" Flat (turf) season, including 1 from 2 here at Doncaster, a track where he is 25/122 (20.5% SR) for 20.4pts (+16.7% ROI) overall with his Doncaster handicappers winning 12 of 51 (23.5%) for 35.5pts at an ROI of some 69.5%.

Of these 51 Donny 'cappers...

  • males are 11/42 ( 26.2%) for 41.3pts (+98.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/32 (18.75%) for 9.9pts (+30.9%)
  • over 1m to 1m4f : 9/31 (29%) for 45.8pts (+147.7%)
  • running after a break of 30 days or more : 11/30 (36.7%) for 50.1pts (+167.1%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/23 (21.7%) for 12.6pts (+54.7%)
  • those stepping up in class are 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.5pts (+81.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 9.6pts (+50.4%)
  • handicap debutants are 6/17 (35.3%) for 16pts (+94.2%)
  • over a mile : 3/10 (30%) for 23.74pts (+237.4%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/9 (22.2%) for 15.6pts (+173.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral, Paddy Power & Skybet at 8.20pm on Friday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 5th May

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NEWMARKET – MAY 5

 

Corresponding toteplacepot dividends At Newmarket on 2000 Guineas day from the last seven years:

2017: £98.50 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

2016: £16,246.30 – 7 favourites – No winners – 3 placed – 4 unplaced

2015: £344.50 (6 favourites: 3 winners & 3 unplaced)

2014: £150.00 (7 favourites: 1 winner - 3 placed - 3 unplaced)

2013: £337.10 (8 favourites: 4 winners - 1 placed - 3 unplaced)

2012: £84.80 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 2 placed - 1 unplaced)

2011: £137.60 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

Average dividend: £2,485.54 - 46 favourites in total - 16 winners - 12 placed - 18 unplaced (exact science)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 45.8% units went through – 10/1 – 2/1* - 7/1

Race 2: 40.3% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 10/3* - 12/1

Race 3: 86.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/7* & 7/2

Race 4: 84.5% of the remaining units went through – 6/4* - 7/2 – 11/2

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 25/1 – 8/1 – 7/2 (13/8)

Race 6: 32.1% of the units secured the dividend – 5/2 & 20/1 (11/10)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newmarket: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 4 (Sharja Bridge), 7 (Oasis Charm) & 13 (Another Eclipse)

Leg 2 (2.20): 9 (Havana Grey), 3 (Juducial) & 8 (Mabs Cross)

Leg 3 (2.55): 2 (Defoe) & 3 (Khalidi)

Leg 4 (3.35): 7 (Masar), 13 (Saxon Warrior) & 2 (Elarqam)

Leg 5 (4.10): 5 (Tribal Quest) & 8 (Galloway Hills)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Key Victory), 5 (Old Persian) & 4 (Lynwood Gold)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: Four-year-olds come to the party having won seven of the last eleven contests, whilst securing 19 of the last available 37 Placepot/each way positions.  Eleven of the thirteen winners of the race have carried weights of nine stones of less, whereby my short list comprises of SHARJA BRIDGE, OASIS CHARM and ANOTHER ECLIPSE. It’s worth noting that my trio against the field last year netted the 10/1 winner and a 37/1 Exacta forecast. This year’s threesome is listed in marginal order of preference at the time of writing, whilst the reserve nomination is offered to Dommersen.

Favourite factor: Six of the fourteen favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include one winner.

Record of the course winners in the opening contest:

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1/4—Spark Plug (good to firm)

1/1—Tricorn (good to firm)

1/5—Examiner (good to soft)

1/2—Third Time Lucky (good)

1/2—Breden (good to firm)

 

2.20 (Palace House Stakes): Six-year-olds have won three of the last seven renewals of this event with JUDICIAL being the pick of the pair of vintage representatives from my viewpoint. Four-year-olds boast the same vintage stats and there is little double that the Michael Dods entry MABS CROSS will give investors a decent run for their collective monies.  Whether either of them will cope with HAVANA GREY here remains to be seen, with the terms and conditions of the contest very much favouring Karl Burke’s three-year-old Havana Gold colt on this occasion. Alpha Delphini couldn’t cope with the opposition in this last year with horses rated 110, let alone the Havana Grey mark of 113 this time around.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last eighteen favourites have won, whilst 12/22 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the study period.

 

2.55 (Jockey Club Stakes): Four and five-year-olds had won the last fifteen renewals between them with the ‘younger set’ having claimed eight of the last nine contests with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion.  DEFOE looks nailed on from what we witnessed at Newbury a few weeks back.  KHALIDI might be worth another chance, from a Placepot perspectuive at least, just in case 70% of the Placepot units go up in smoke if Roger Varian’s hot pot fails to live up to live up to expectations.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last fourteen renewals have fallen the way of favourites, though just one other market leader has struck gold during the last twenty years. 12/21 jollies have claimed Placepot positions in recent times.

Record of course winner in the Jockey Club Stakes:

1/2—Khalidi (good to firm)

1/14—Master The World (good)

 

3.35 (2000 Guineas): Aidan O’Brien has won this race eight times in all though it should be noted that his 4/5 chance (Air Force Blue) ran a poor race two years ago, just in case you were jumping in with your ‘size twelves’ this morning.  That said, Aidan looks to have a strong hand this time around, though I prefer his two main contenders in reverse order as far as the betting is concerned.  Aidan said of his Racing Post Trophy SAXON WARRIOR winner shortly after the race; “He's a very special horse, we think. He's done everything we've asked of him and he's only been a baby. I'd say there's no doubt he'll be better on better ground”.  Value for money has always ruled my heart as long as positive trends are in place whereby SAXON WARRIOR is joined by MASAR and ELARQAM in my Placepot mix.  I have not entirely ruled Roaring Lion out of the equation, twenty four hours in advance of the first classic of the season.

Favourite factor: Only five market leaders have won the 2000 Guineas since the turn of the Millennium, albeit 14/18 gold medallists scored at a top priced of 11/1.  That said, over 25% per cent of the Placepot positions during the study period have been gained by horses starting at 25/1 or more!  Four 100/1 chances have finished in the frame since the turn of the Millennium alongside the 150/1 runner up in 2013, notwithstanding the 40/1 winner four years ago.

2000 Guineas draw factor in recent years (2017 result offered first):

3-5-7 (10 ran-good to firm)

1-8-3 (13 ran-good to soft)

16-19-5 (18 ran-good to firm)

3-1-10 (14 ran-good to firm)

6-4-1 (13 ran-good to firm)

12-16-4 (18 ran-good to soft)

1-5-11 (13 ran-good to firm)

5-9-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

17-3-4 (15-good to firm)

6-14-9 (15 ran-good)

10-19-7 (24 ran-good to firm)

9-11-13 (14 ran-good to firm)

3-14-16 (19 ran-good to firm)

11-1-4 (14 ran-good)

Record of the three course winners in the 2000 Guineas:

1/1—Elarqam (good to soft)

1/1—Masar (good)

1/2—Roaring Lion (good to soft)

 

4.10: 20/25 horses to secure Placepot positions via just the eight renewals thus far have carried weights of nine stones or less, stats which include all eight winners, four of which won at 25/1-16/1-16/1-12/1.  Accordingly, my short list against the field consists of TRIBAL QUEST and GALLOWAY HILLS.  Charlie Appleby’s War front gelding TRIBAL QUEST carries sixteen ounces over the ideal burden but that said, Charlie’s outrageous form this spring could outweigh the scales on this occasion.  I’m not certain that I would back GALLOWAY HILLS to win the contest, though his Placepot credentials are first rate.  If the weight trend is to go base over apex, Chagatai could prove to be the joker in the pack.

Favourite factor: All eight favourites have secured Placepot positions to date, statistics which include three winners at 9/2-9/2-11/10.

 

4.45 (Newmarket Stakes): There is little point of waffling on about form details here when the plain and simple truth is that a non-runner prior to flag fall will put all of us on the defensive. given that the ‘dead eight’ advantage would be lost.  The Godolphin pair KEY VICTORY and OLD PERSIAN go straight onto the team sheet, joined by Mark Johnston’s LYNWOOD GOLD, especially as the trainer has secured two of the last three renewals when represented.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have obliged during the last sixteen years, whilst 11/20 market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in recent years.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 28th April

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SANDOWN – APRIL 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*

Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)

Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up.  It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day.  Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event.  Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George.  One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.

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Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/1—Top Notch (soft)

1/2—O O Seven (soft)

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared.  It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far.  Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.

Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:

2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)

2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)

1/4—Special Tiara (good)

 

3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER.  The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:

1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/4—Benbens (good to soft)

1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)

3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016

 

4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years.  WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)

2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

4.40:  Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/3—Silverhow (soft)

 

Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:

1/1--  Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year

1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)

1/2—Landin (good)

1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 27th April

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SANDOWN – APRIL 27

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £114.80 (8 favourites – 4 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 59.2% units went through – 6/4* - 12/1 – 11/1

Race 2: 67.2% of the remaining units when through – 3/1 – 9/2 – 11/4*

Race 3: 16.8% of the remaining units went through – 5/1 & 12/1 (5/6)

Race 4: 31.8% of the remaining units went through – 9/2** - 10/1 10/1 (9/2**)

Race 5: 83.4% of the remaining units went through – 11/4** - 11/4** - 8/1

Race 6: 35.9% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1* - 12/1 – 16/1

 

Firday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 2 (Kings Shield), 4 (Dream Warrior) & 6 (Motown Mick)

Leg 2 (2.25): 5 (Morando) & 2 (Crystal Ocean)

Leg 3 (3.00): 6 (Sevenna Star) & 4 (Ispoloni)

Leg 4 (3.35): 1 (Addeybb), 2 (Here Comes When) & 3 (Khafoo Shememi

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Leg 5 (4.05): 8 (Diamond Dougal), 4 (Haddaf) & 2 (Spoof)

Leg 6 (4.35): 2 (Highgarden) & 7 (Must Be Magic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: 'Team Hannon' have landed this prize twice in the last twelve years, one of only two represented stables to have won the contest on two occasions during the study period.  Richard saddles MOTOWN MICK who boasts win and place claims though this looks to be a tough heat, with KINGS SHIELD and DREAM WARRIOR having been declared by the powerful John Gosden and Charlie Appleby stables respectively.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last twenty favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four winners.  Fifteen of the last twenty winners were returned at 17/2 or less.

 

2.25: Four and five-year-olds have won fourteen of the last sixteen renewals of this Group 3 Gordon Richard Stakes with the ‘juniors’ leading 8-6 during the period, though five-year-olds were only conspicuous by their absence three years ago.  With rain on the radar, it would not surprise me to see What About Carlo outrunning his 9/1 quote in places this morning, though CRYSTAL OCEAN and MORANDO make more appeal from a win perspective.  Fabricate is one of those horses that I cannot get right so in passing up Michael Bell’s raider today, you might start forming an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the land to ‘get on’!

Favourite factor: Three of the last ten favourites have obliged whilst the biggest priced winner during the last eleven years was returned at just 8/1.  That said, only eight of the eighteen favourites during the last fourteen years have secured Placepot positions.

 

3.00: This Group 3 Classic Trial invariably produces an intriguing contest and this year's renewal is no exception. I referred to the stables of John Gosden and Charlie Appleby as ‘powerful’ in the opening race which goes without saying, though especially at this moment in time when their aggregate recent ratio stands at 42/96 (44% strike rate), figures which have produced level stake profits of 60 points in recent weeks!  Their respective raiders SEVENNA STAR and ISPOLINI cannot be opposed from my self-confessed ‘anorak’ viewpoint.

Favourite factor: Just four favourites have won via the last eighteen renewals, though bookmakers have not had things going all their own way.  Fourteen gold medallists during the period were returned at prices ranging between 1/2 and 11/2.

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have won nine of the last eighteen contests, with ADDEYBB and KHAFOO SHEMENI representing the vintage this time around.  The pair is listed in order of preference at the time of writing but with relentless rain falling here in the west-country this morning (seemingly on its way through to Sandown later today), HERE COMES WHEN cannot be left out of calculations.  Loyal readers will recall that I napped Andrew Balding’s Danehill Dancer gelding is last year’s Sussex Stakes when scoring at 20/1 and there is every indication that Jim Crowley’s mount can go close again today having won at the first time of asking twelve months ago.  That said, ADDEYBB turned the Lincoln Handicap into a procession on soft ground a few weeks ago which only adds interest to proceedings.

Favourite factor: Nine favourites have scored during the last eighteen years, whilst 11/22 market leaders have secured win and place positions during the study period.  Seventeen of the last twenty gold medallists have scored at odds of 5/1 or less.

 

4.05: Twelve of the fifteen winners to date have carried weights of 9-2 or less though that is of no help now that the top weight has been withdrawn from the contest.  What should have been a fairly simple ‘dead eight’ race to assess now takes on a whole new meaning whereby I am offering three horses against the field, namely DIAMOND DOUGAL, HADDAF and SPOOF.  James Tate’s winners are invariable well fancied and money for HADDAF would ensure that the Dawn Approach gelding would be the call if a gun was pointed to my head to name the winner.

Favourite factor: Twelve of the eighteen market leaders reached the frame during the study period, statistics which include nine winners.

 

4.35:  The lads and lasses in the trade press office must have been ‘on the wallop’ when chalking up HIGHGARDEN as a potential 7/2 chance in this event yesterday.  I have made the point on numerous occasions that as an Odds Compiler myself, pricing up certain races is a difficult task but John Gosden’s Nathaniel filly was so impressive on soft ground at Newbury on her only start last year, that 6/4 would have been as far as I would have dared to ‘promote’ going into the contest.  MUST BE MAGIC is the logical danger, albeit after just one half decent effort thus far.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, with ten gold medallists have been returned at a top price of 8/1 during the study period.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

 

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2018

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Thursday's Runner was...

8.35 Chelmsford : Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Keen tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner)

Our next runner goes in Friday's...

2.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (34yo+) on soft ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 69-rated 6 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out 6 days ago, when heading the "wrong" group in a big field (19 ran!) at relatively nearby Thirsk off the same mark as today.

To date, he's a former Doncaster winner, a winner on both good to soft and heavy (I'm not sure which way the weather will go nowadays!), a winner after just five days rest and has the following of relevance today...

  • 7 wins from 29 with a tongue tie
  • 5 from 20 under jockey Ali Rawlinson
  • 5 from 19 at this trip
  • 5 from 18 in a visor
  • 5 from 16 at Class 5
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

His trainer Mick Appleby has his horses in decent enough form, with 6 winners from 32 (18.75% SR) generating profits of 17.082pts at an ROI of 55.7% over ther last month, including...

  • Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 9.49pts (+79.1%)
  • Ali Rawlinson : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.76pts (+46.1%)

The Class 5 angle is key here, much of SotD's output is done at or around this level and I have a small group of trainers to keep an eye on at this grade, especially in UK Flat (turf) handicaps and Mr Appleby is one of them, for since 2010, his record in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps stands at 55/440 (12.5% SR) for 423.94pts (+96.35% ROI) and these 440 runners include the following of relevance today...

  • Sub-£4k prize money : 52/416 (12.5%) for 424.7pts (+102.1%)
  • beaten by 0.25 lengths or more LTO : 52/378 (13.8%) for 465.5pts (+123.1%)
  • OR of 61 to 70 : 39/284 (13.7%) for 463.7pts (+163.3%)
  • males : 35/269 (13%) for 387.3pts (+144%)
  • over 6 to 9 furlongs : 27/199 (13.6^) for 389.8pts (+195.9%)
  • in Yorkshire : 21/172 (12.2%) for 279.7pts (+162.6%)
  • 2nd or 3rd LTO : 19/99 (19.2%) for 70.12pts (+70.8%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds  :15/94 (16%) for 119.5pts (+127.1%)
  • over 7f : 8/50 (16%) for 54.25pts (+108.5%)
  • Doncaster : 5/47 (10.6%) for 11.9pts (+25.3%)
  • and former course and distance winners are 8/27 (29.6%) for 95.4pts (+353.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet & SportPesa at 4.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Sunday 25th March

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DONCASTER – MARCH 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £160.00 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 54.0% units went through – 28/1, 10/1, 7/2* & 8/1

Race 2: 59.9% of the remaining units when through – 15/8*, 25/1 & 11/4

Race 3: 75.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7*, 9/2 & 25/1

Race 4: 19.9% of the remaining units went through – 33/1, 13/2**, 16/1 & 20/1 (13/2**)

Race 5: 34.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 50/1

Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1, 14/1, 8/1 & 9/1 (9/2)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 8 (Right Action), 11 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Colonel Frank) & 7 (Lost At Sea)

Leg 2 (3.00): 2 (First Contact) & 12 (Stealth)

Leg 3 (3.35): 7 (Explain), 9 (Dark Defender), 11 (Private Matter) & 8 (Mobsta)

Leg 4 (4.10): 5 (Royal Line) & 1 (Great Hall)

Leg 5 (4.45): 8 (Archippos), 10 (Music Seeker) & 3 (Tuff Rock)

Leg 6 (5.20): 3 (Broderie) & 7 (Dr Richard Kimble)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.25: Richard Fahey has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this opening event (was also responsible for the runner up last year at 10/1) and the quintet were all four-year-olds which makes for interesting reading.  Richard has declared four horses on this occasion, with his lone four-year-old raider RIGHT ACTION taken to lead his stablemates home, as was the case twelve months ago. Four-year-olds have won five of the last six contests for good measure, whereby my short listed trio to accompany Right Action comprises of KNOW YOUR LIMIT, COLONEL FRANK and LOST AT SEA.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 15 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Right Touch (good to soft)

1/5—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/9—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/2—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/13—Khelman (heavy)

2/2—Act Echo (good to firm & good to soft)

 

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3.00: We can only suppose that PREVENT will turn out to be an above average type, especially in the excellent care of Ralph Beckett and his team.  As for now, I expect the experience already gained by the likes of STEALTH and (particularly) FIRST CONTACT might prove too much for the Poet’s Voice gelding at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

3.35: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals between them, including twelve of the last thirteen contests. Richard Fahey has secured three of the last eight renewals, whilst the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Putting the stats into the deep far fryer produces names such as EXPLAIN, DARK DEFENDER and PRIVATE MATTER.  MOBSTA is a regular at this opening weekend of the season and Mick Channon’s raider should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen winners have scored at 66/1--40/1--33/1—33/1--16/1--16/1--14/1--14/1, whilst four of the other six gold medallists were returned at 25/1--12/1--7/1--7/1 during the study period. Eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Effect of the draw (latest renewal shown first):

8-15-13-14 (22 ran –good)

21-1-5-18 (20 ran-soft)

3-16-6-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

1-7-2-16 (18 ran-soft)

6-4-8-10 (18 ran-soft)

15-11-4-3 (22 ran-good)

4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)

2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)

2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)

1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)

15-11-6 (15 ran-good)

3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)

9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)

22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)

2/4—Naadirr (2 x good)

1/4—Captain Colby (good)

2/7—Mobsta (2 x soft)

 

4.10: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and vintage representatives are 6/4 against extending their good recent run before the form book is consulted. John Gosden has declared vintage representative ROYAL LINE who might have GREAT HALL to beat here, with Mick Quinn’s eight-year-old always seemingly that bit better with some juice in the ground.

Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites have prevailed, though only two of the other nine market leaders (in total) additionally secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals during the last fourteen years.

 

4.45: Last year’s winner ARCHIPPOS returns to defend his crown and with Phil Kirby’s team in fine form just now (five of his last thirteen runners have won), the five-year-old is the first name on the team sheet.  Joining him there are MUSIC SEEKER and TUFF ROCK, especially as four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals of this event.  MUSIC SEEKER won at the first time of asking last year on soft ground, whereby Declan Carroll’s representative could be the value for money call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/1**) winner.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Archippos (good)

1/3—Mutarakez (good to soft)

 

5.20: Mark Johnston has won two of the last three renewals in which his stable was represented whereby the chance of DR RICHARD KIMBLE is greatly respected.  That said, Mark’s Lawman gelding might need every pound of the ten he receives from BRODERIE with Charlie Appleby sending out winners for fun of late.  Talking of in-form trainers, Phil Kirby has to be mentioned in dispatches whereby Rayna’s World could outrun his odds.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders have won two of the seven renewals to date, with five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Three of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, though four renewals have slipped by since a market leader scored.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

ASCOT ON SUNDAY – IF YOU’RE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING: 

Last year’s dividend: 132.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 35.9% units went through – 3/1*, 33/1 & 13/2

Race 2: 42.1% of the remaining units when through – 9/1, 7/2 & 7/2 (3/1)

Race 3: 35.6% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 (win only – 5/4*)

Race 4: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 12/1, 5/1 & 10/1 (9/2)

Race 6: 44.3% of the units secured the dividend – 11/1, 7/2** & 8/1 (7/2**)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 24th March

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DONCASTER – MARCH 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,231.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 16.6% units went through – 7/1, 11/1 & 33/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 19.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 20/1 (9/2)

Race 3: 41.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1, 10/3 & 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 20/1, 7/2*, 7/1 & 16/1

Race 5: 26.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 13/2 & 50/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1, 9/2 & 14/1 (11/4)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mjjack), 6 (Mr Lupton) & 4 (Lancelot Du Lac)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Kynren), 8 (What’s The Story) & 14 (Titus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Another Touch) & 6 (Zabeel Prince)

Leg 4 (3.35): 17 (Fire Brigade), 14 (Addeybb), 13 (Grey Britain) & 10 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Langholm), 10 (Lihou) & 4 (Carey Street)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Proschema) & 2 (Argentello)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Scroll down for Doncaster stats and Newbury Placepot information

 

1.50: The last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst only two favourites have prevailed via the last 14 contests.  Unfortunately, only the bottom weight is eliminated from my enquiries via the relevant weight stats this time around though in MJJACK, we have a half decent chance of securing a Placepot position at the very least in the opening race of the season.  There is money this morning for Karl Burke’s raider who looks an interesting each way bet for starters on a busy day.  Others of interest include course winner MR LUPTON and LANCELOT DU LAC who doesn’t mind some juice in the ground, though the general 3/1 quote would frighten yours truly away from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

4-12-1 (13 ran-good to soft)

14-12-2 (13 ran-soft)

10-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)

9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)

11-10-12 (14 ran-good)

5-7-14 (14 ran-good)

14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)

6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)

2-7-10 (11 ran-good)

16-17-12 (17 ran--good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Mjjack (heavy)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good)

1/4—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won 16 renewals during the last 20 years (including 13 of the last 16), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Eleven vintage representatives have been declared compared to just six twelve months ago which makes this renewal a little tougher to assess.  I have opted for KYNREN, WHAT’S THE STORY and TITUS.  The reserve nomination is awarded to ORIGINAL CHOICE.

Favourite factor: The last 16 favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.  Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 14 years.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

6-3-1-9 (21 ran-good to soft)

4-19-20-18 (21 ran-soft)

8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)

15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)

16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)

2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)

16-19-22-10 (22-good)

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19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)

9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)

17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)

12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)

19-20-21-15 (24-good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the second race:

1/4—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/1—What’s The Stoory (soft)

 

3.00: ANOTHER TOUCH is the each way call in the contest, albeit ZABEEL PRINCE should take the beating on this ground which has produced some of his best form.  Richard Hannon secured a treble on the corresponding card last year and TABARRAK appears to be his best chance of a winner today.  That said, ground conditions are a worry and in ANOTHER TOUCH, we have a young horse which offers decent value for money at 11/1 (in places) this morning.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just five renewals to take into consideration with three of the six market leaders having secured Placepot positions (two winners).

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have claimed 23 of the last 60 available Placepot positions, statistics which include eight of the last fifteen winners, whilst the last 13 winners have carried 9-4 or less.  Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of FIERE BRIGADE, ADDEYBB, GREY BRITAIN and NOT SO SLEEPY.  I had to include the latter named raider who is a 66/1 chance in some books this morning which appears to be a more than generous quote given his 2/4 record on the prevailing ground. That said as a winner (similarly) of two of his four races on soft going, FIRE BRIGADE is a worthy favourite from my viewpoint, though value for money is only conspicuous by its absence.

Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 19 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just three of the other 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

Effect of the draw during the last fourteen years:

20-2-21-4 (22 ran-good to soft)

22-2-18-21 (22 ran-soft)

15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)

3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)

3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)

12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:

2/3—Gabrial (2 x good)

1/1—Stamp Hill (good to soft)

2/6—Withernsea (soft & heavy)

1/2—Bravery (good to soft)

 

4.10: LIHOU and CAREY STREET are alternative each way types to consider though at the time of writing, LANGHOLM is a warm favourite to put in mildly given that this is the infamous ‘Brocklesby’ contest which has sent many an investor to an early grave!  Wasntexpectingthat is the other juvenile to consider according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 27 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last fourteen renewals:

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

4.40: Tom Dacombe’s Declaration Of War colt PROSCHEMA ran well under these conditions on his second start as a juvenile and in terms of ‘laying off’ from a Placepot perspective, Richard Kingscote’s mount is the horse to play in the finale of our favourite wager.  That said, ARGENTELLO could be anything out of the Gosden yard if you are ‘chasing money’ (never recommended) towards the end of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Horses returned between 2/1* and 5/1 have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst runners sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed the other four contests.  It seems that each way bets between 11/2 and 12/1 in recent years have gone up in any amount of smoke, certainly from a win perspective at least.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stat for Doncaster on Saturday:

Richard Hannon secured a 703/1 treble at the corresponding (Lincoln Handicap) meeting last year – 3 runners today: Tabarrak (3.00), Moneyoryourlife (5.20) & Boycie (5.50)

 

NEWBURY ON SATURDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend £200.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.9% units went through – 7/1, 9/1 & 10/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 40.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1**, 7/1**, 25/1 & 9/1

Race 4: 50.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 14/1 & 2/1*

Race 5: 93.3% of the remaining units went through – 8/11* & 9/4

Race 6: 22.2% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 12/1 & 8/1 (9/2)