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Sat TV Trends: 9th Nov 2019

This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster (ABANDONED) for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also at Aintree to take in one of their contests as always we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/15 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/15 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

2.05 – Bombardier Golden Beer Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/16 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
14/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Won from stall 12 or lower
13/16 – Rated 99 or higher
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
11/16 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/16 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

3.15 – November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

13/16 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
13/16 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
13/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
12/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 5 times in all)
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Aged 7 or younger
9/12 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/12 – Rated between 119-129
8/12 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
8/12 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
7/12 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
7/12 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
6/12 – Had run at the track before
6/12 – Irish bred
6/12 – Aged 6 years-old
5/12 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 8)
2/12 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 6)
2/12 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

2.25 – John Romans Park ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

12/12 – Had won no more than twice over fences
11/12 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Favourites placed
10/12 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
9/12 – Irish (5) or French (4) bred
8/12 – Aged 6 or younger
8/12 – Won last time out
7/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
9 of the last 10 winners were aged between 5-7
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/2

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
13/15 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Came from the top three in the betting
10/15 – Unplaced last time out
10/15 – Rated 150 or lower
10/15 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/15 – Having first run of the season
5/15 – Ran at Aintree last time out
5/15 – Carried 10-6 or less
5/15 – Won with 11-10 in weight
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by John Quinn
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/2

3.35 - Badger Beers Silver Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

16/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
14/16 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
14/16 – Won at least two chase races previously
14/16 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
13/16 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
13/16 –  Raced at the course previously ( won over fences)
13/16 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
13/16  – Placed in the top four in their last race
11/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Raced already that season
10/16 – Irish-bred horse
9/16 – Raced at either Sandown (3), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
9/16 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/16 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/16 – 6Priced at double-figures
7/16 – Won their latest race
6/16 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Won by the Pipe stable
5/16 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 5 of the last 9 years)
Present Man won the race in 2017 and 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 8/1

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

2.05 – Virgin Bet Handicap Chase Cl2 2m4f ITV

14/14 – Aged 9 or younger
14/14 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/14 – Had won 2 or less times over fences before
11/14 – Last raced over 6 months ago
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Unplaced favourites
10/14 – Carried 10-13 or more
9/14 - Had won over 2m4f (or further) over fences before
7/14 – Rated between 119 and 130
6/14 – Had raced at Aintree before
5/14 – Won last time out
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Venetia Williams
1/14 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1

 

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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Stat of the Day, 13th September 2019

Thursday's pick was...

6.20 Chelmsford : Invincible Larne @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 5/1 (Led, headed 2f out, ridden over 1f out, no extra)

Friday's pick runs in the...

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 3,  Classified Stakes for 3yo+ over 1m2f on Good To Firm worth £9,338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last four outings, starting with a course and distance win here on Town Moor back in July and culminating in a win under today's jockey, Dan Tudhope, in Class 3 handicap over this trip at Ripon 17 days ago.

This recent run of form boosts his career record to include the following of relevance today...

  • 4 wins and 3 places from 9 in fields of 6-8 runners
  • 2 wins and 3 places from 6 over 1m2f/1m2.5f
  • 1 win and 1 place from 3 visits to Doncaster
  • and a 1/1 return under today's jockey, Dan Tudhope...

...who has won 13 of 81 (16.1% SR) races at Classes 2 to 4 here at Doncaster over the past four seasons generating profits of 59.6pts at an ROI of 73.6%.

Dan is definitely more active and more well known on the racing scene than trainer Chris Fairhurst, but from a small string of horses he has done well when travelling the 90 minutes south from his Middleham base with 6 winners from 27 (22.2% SR) producing profits of 57.6pts (+213.4% RO) here at Doncaster over the past five seasons, from which...

  • those with less than 3 weeks rest since they last ran are 6/12 (50%) for 72.62pts (+605.2%)
  • 3 to 6 yr olds are 5/20 (25%) for 26.58pts (+132.9%)
  • those racing in fields of just 4-7 runners are 4/8 (50%) for 21.81pts (+272.6%)
  • those sent off shorter than 7/1 are 3/5 (60%) for 10.03pts (+200.6%)
  • Class 3 runners are 2/6 (33.3%) for 10.89pts (+181.4%)
  • in 2019, they are 2/5 (40%) for 7.93pts (+158.6%)
  • and those competing for prizes of £8-10k are 2/2 (100%) for 14.89pts (+744.5%)...

...whilst 3-6 yr olds in fields of 4-7 runners after less than 3 weeks rest are 4 from 7 (57.1%) for 22.81pts (+325.9% ROI) and these include 3/3 at sub-7/1 odds, 2/3 this year, 2/2 at Class 3 and 2/2 in races worth £8-10k...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Benadalid @ 11/2 BOG as was quite widely available at 5.55pm on Thursday. If you can't get on, there's plenty of 5/1 knocking about too and to see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Doncaster TV Trends: Friday 13th Sept 2019

The ITV cameras head to Doncaster racecourse this week for the 4-day St Leger Meeting – they will be covering races on Thursday, Friday and Saturday – with races spread across both ITV and ITV4.
As always, we’ve got it all covered with all the TV race trends and stats – these should help narrow down the fields and also highlight the best profiles of horses that have done well in the races in the past.

 

Friday 13th September 2019

 

1.50 - Japan Racing Association Sceptre Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f ITV4

14/16 – Never raced at Doncaster before
12/16 – Won between 1-3 times before
12/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Drawn in stalls 3-7 (inc)
10/16 – Had won over 7f before
8/16 – Placed favourites
8/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
8/16 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Won by the Hills stable
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/16 – Trained by Roger Varian (2 of last 4 runnings)
2/16 – Irish-trained winners
0/16 – Winners from stall 1 or 2

 

2:40 – William Hill Mallard Stakes (Handicap) Cl2 1m6f132y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

16/16 – Drawn in stall 11 or lower
15/16 – Aged 5 or younger
15/16 – Had won at least twice before
13/16 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
12/16 – Had won over 1m4f or further before
12/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
11/16 – Carried 8-10 or more
10/16 – Winning distance 1 length or more
8/16 – Had 5 or more runs that season
7/16 – Had run at Doncaster before (5 won)
6/16 – Ran at York last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Returned a double-figure price
6/16 – Won last time out
4/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/16 – Trained by Michael Bell

3:10 – Magners Rose Doncaster Cup (British Champions Series) (Group 2) Cl1 2m2f ITV4

16/18 – Had won over 1m6f or further before
16/18 – Had 2 or more runs that season
15/18 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/18 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
13/18 – Had run at Doncaster before (6 won)
12/18 – Placed last time out
12/18 – Had won 5 or more times before
11/18 – Aged 6 or younger
10/18 – Ran at York last time out
10/18 – Previous Group race winners
10/18 – Winning distance 1 or more lengths
8/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
6/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Trained in Ireland
Thomas Hobson (2/1 fav) won the race in 2018
Desert Skyline (2/1) won the race in 2017
Sheikhzayedroad won the race in 2016
Pallasator won the race in 2015

3.45 – Wainwrights Flying Childers Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 5f ITV4

15/16 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
13/16 – Placed horses from stall 2 or 3
13/16 – Drawn in stall 7 or lower
12/16 – Had won at Listed or Group class before
11/16 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Won 1-2 times before
11/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
8/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Foaled in April
6/16 – Ran at York last time
5/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
5/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
5/16 – Won last time out
1/16 – Irish-trained winners
1/16 – Winners from stall 1

 

 Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

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Stat of the Day, 25th July 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.20 Lingfield : Fashion Free @ 2/1 BOG 5th at 2/1 (Chased leaders, jumped path and stumbled 5f out, soon switched right, switched left over 2f out, stayed on same pace)

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

7.55 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Waterfront @ 4/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on good to firm ground worth £3429 to the winner...

Why?...

This three-year-old son of Cape Cross is making his handicap debut here for a trainer who excels in such circumstances. Simon Crisford, once Godolphin's main media mouthpiece - and pretty hands on behind the scenes, has forged a solid career in the training ranks. His overall annual strike rate is around 20%, but when running a horse first time in a handicap that rose to 27.7% in the last two years (18/65, +11.24, A/E 1.32, IV 2.82).

Crisford has been in excellent recent form, too, his three winners from ten in the past fortnight forming part of a more impressive six from 17 in handicaps in the past 30 days (35.3%, +9.10, A/E 1.84, IV 3.34)

Crisford teams up with veteran French jockey Gerald Mosse, a man enjoying a wonderful renaissance here in Blighty these last couple of seasons, for only the second time - the other being aboard a 33/1 no hoper back in 2017.

Mosse rides Doncaster well and has two wins from eleven spins at the track in the last year (27.3%, +3.00, A/E 1.74, IV 1.6).

It's a tricky race on a very tricky day, but there is enough to justify a crack...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Waterfront @ 4/1 BOG as was available at 5.30pm on Wednesday with Betfair Sports and Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 7.55 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th November 2018

Friday's Pick was...

3.05 Warwick : Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG PU at 7/2 (Prominent, lost place 7th, tailed off after 13th, soon pulled up) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG  

...in a 13-runner, Class 2 Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground worth £12450 to the winner... 

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding was a runner-up in another Class 2, 7 furlong handicap off today's mark 25 days ago, going down by just half a length to Muntadab, who has since run twice : winning again at this class/trip before finishing as a runner-up in a Listed contest at Newmarket last Saturday, beaten only by our SotD selection, Mitchum Swagger.

Our trainer today is Ian Williams, whose runners are 17 from 105 (16.2% SR) for 13.4pts (+12.7% ROI) here at Doncaster since 2009, of which handicappers priced shorter than 10/1 (my preferred odds range for my personal betting) are 14 from 45 (31.1% SR) for 42.75pts (+95% ROI).

It makes sense to focus on these 45 handicappers today and in the context of this race, they are...

  • 13/40 (32.5%) for 40.33pts (+100.8%) when competing for less than £13k prize money
  • 10/24 (41.7%) for 41.1pts (+171.3%) racing within 25 days of their last run
  • 8/19 (42.1%) for 29.45pts (+155%) in 2017/18
  • and 5 from 12 (41.7%) for 26.68pts (+222.3%) after a break of 21-25 days

...AND from the above...2017/18, 7/1 and shorter, 21-25 dslr for less than £13k = 3/5 (60% SR) for 18.36pts (+367.2% ROI), including 1/1 at Class 2 for 6.28pts profit.

I'm also happy to see the Doyler (James Doyle) in the saddle today, as he's in great form, winning 14 of 35 (40% SR) over the last 30 days and 9 of 23 (39.1%) in the past fortnight, whilst his record for Ian Williams in handicaps is an excellent 10/46 (21.7% SR) for 9.3pts (+20.2% ROI) over the last three years...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 5/1 BOG, a price widely available at 5.25pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

4.00 Southwell : Mauricio @ 11/4 BOG WON at 5/1 (Held up, headway 4 out, chased leaders next, every chance when not fluent last, stayed on under pressure to lead closing stages) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

1.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Lola's Theme @ 13/2 BOG  

...in an 8-runner, Class 3, Nursery contest for 2yo over 1m on Good to Soft ground worth £6225 to the winner... 

Why?

I'll have more to say about this one later...

...but first, it's... a 1pt win bet on Lola's Theme @ 13/2 BOG, as offered by SkyBet, Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.15pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th July 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.20 Lingfield : Full Suit @ 5/2 BOG 5th at 11/8 (Tracked leaders in 3rd, ridden over 1f out, soon weakened)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

5.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muatadel 11/2 BOG

In a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Good to Firm ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 5yr old gelding is winless in almost a year, but is now back on a mark 3lbs lower than his last win 2lbs lower than when beaten by just a length over this course (at 5f, staying on) a week ago. The 5th placed horse, that day, Bondi Beach Boy has since gone on to win at Beverley three days ago, so that's a positive, as is the extra furlong for our pick today.

By virtue of winning this race last year Muatadel is the only previous C&D winner in today's field and that 1/1 C&D record has contributed to him having 2 wins and 2 places from 4 visits to this venue, whilst 2 of his 3 career wins are under today's jockey Tony Hamilton.

Trainer Roger Fell has got his horses running well right now, as demonstrated by a 12 from 48 925% SR) for 28pts (+58.3% ROI) return over the last 30 days, whilst here at Doncaster, his career record reads 6 from 32 (18.75% SR) for 67pts (+209.4% ROI), from which...

  • over 6/7f : 5/18 (27.8%) for 75.83pts (+421.3%)
  • at C5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 26pts (+236.4%)
  • Tony Hamilton : 3/10 (30%) for 21.85pts (+218.5%)
  • C5  @6/7f : 3/7 942.9%) for 24.85pts (+355%)
  • Tony Hamilton @ 6/7f : 3/6 950%) for 25.85pts (+430.9%)
  • Tony Hamilton @ C5 @ 6/7f : 3/4 (75%) for 27.85pts (696.3%)

And those trainer/jockey stats are unsurprising, as overall...Fell + Hamilton + Class 4/5 Flat Handicaps = 21/121 (17.4% SR) for 55.6pts (+45.9% ROI), including...

  • 3-6 yr olds : 20/112 (17.9%) for 61pts (+54.5%)
  • males : 19/106 (17.9%) for 52.7pts (+49.7%)
  • 2-15 days since last run : 15/65 (23.1%) for 65.2pts (+100.4%)
  • 3-7 previous runs that season : 18/61 (29.5%) for 102.4pts (+167.8%)
  • June to August : 16/61 (26.2%) for 91.5pts (+150%)
  • on Good to Firm : 12/55 (21.8%) for 15.5pts (+28.2%)
  • rated (OR) 2lbs lower than LTO : 5/30 (16.6%) for 37.43pts (+124.8%)
  • and over 6f : 5/25 (20%) for 22.25pts (+89%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Muatadel 11/2 BOGa price available from Bet365 and SkyBet at 5.35pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 1st June 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

7.10 Chelmsford : Codicil @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 8/1 (Towards rear, never involved : just awful!)

We now start a new month via Friday's...

6.00 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG 

An 11-runner, Class 5, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good to Firm ground worth 3752 to the winner... 

Why?

A fairly short price about a horse that has failed to win any of his 16 starts to date, but just like my own current form, his has to improve soon, surely?

In fairness to this 4yr old gelding he was only beaten by two necks when finishing third last time out, 17 days ago and despite still being a maiden he has made the frame in...

  • 4 runs from 7 attempts at 1 mile
  • 4 of 5 races in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 of 5 on Good to Firm
  • 2 of 4 with today's jockey Sean Levey
  • 2 of 3 this season
  • 2 of 2 at Class 5
  • and 2 of 2 within 16 to 30 days of his last run

Aside from that and more generally, blindly backing all Richard Hannon (Jnr) runners here at Doncaster has been a profitable venture with 34 winners from 250 (13.6% SR) generating profits of 65.3pts at a healthy ROI of 26.1%, even without adding any filters! The most obvious filter here is to focus on handicap contests, where 15 winners from 107 (14%) have made 98pts (+91.6%) profit and that's what we'll stick with.

Of those 107 Donny 'cappers...

    • those last seen 6-75 days ago are 14/91 (15.4%) for 106.1pts (+116.6%)
    • males are 13/88 (14.8%) for 81.9pts (+93%)
    • 3/4 yr olds are 13/77 (16.9%) for 117.1pts (+152.1%)
    • those placed 3rd to 7th LTO are 11/55 (20%) for 91pts (+165.4%)
    • those ridden by Sean Levey are 4/30 (13.3%) for 14.7pts (+49.1%)
    • on Good to Firm, it's 4/26 (15.4%) for 52.7pts (+202.5%)
    • Class 5 runners are 4/13 (30.8%) for 51.8pts (+398.2%)
    • and those competing for a prize worth less than £4,000 are 4/11 (36.4%) for 53.8pts (+488.8%)

...and from the above... 3/4 yr old males at 6-75 days since last run = 11/54 (20.4% SR) for 105pts (+194.5% ROI)

In addition to the above, over the last two years the yard is 35/257 (13.6% SR) for 159.5pts (+62.1% ROI) with their milers in the May to August period with those racing on good to firm winning 15 of 98 (15.3%) for 145.5pts at an ROI of some 148.5%.

And I'll wrap this up with a look at Mr Hannon's record in Class 5 Flat handicaps, as he's one of a handful of trainers that I follow in this fairly specialised type of race. If you'd blindly backed all of the Hannon C5 Flat 'cappers so far, you'd have had 72 winners from 474 with that 15.2% strike rate yielding profits of 81.2pts at an ROI of 17.1% and these are good numbers from blind backing.

In the context of today's race, however, those 474 runners are...

  • 57 from 360 (15.8%) for 101.5pts (+28.2%) as 3-5 yr olds
  • 66 from 347 (19%) for 176.6pts (+50.9%) running after a break of 6-30 days
  • 29 from 160 (18.1%) for 102.8pts (+64.3%) on good to firm ground
  • 16 from 104 (15.4%) for 29.9pts (+28.7%) when ridden by Sean Levey
  • and 14 from 85 (16.5%) for 39.5pts (+46.5%) in June

...3-5 yr olds racing on Good to Firm, 6-30 days after the last run are 41/181 (22.7% SR) for 171.4pts (+94.7% ROI) with those racing in June winning 11 of 52 (21.2%) for 56.4pts (+108.4%) whilst Sean Levey has 9 winners from 25 (36%) for 51.7pts (+143.5%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Mr Tyrell @ 7/2 BOG   which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.50pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.00 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 5th May 2018

Friday's Runner was...

7.30 Newcastle : Insurgence @ 13/2 BOG 8th at 5/1 (Led, headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out)

We end what has been a poor week with Saturday's...

6.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 3,  1m Flat Handicap (3yo) on soft ground worth £7763 to the winner... 

Why?

We've got a 3 yr old who has made a good start to his career finishing 511 in his three outings to date and whilst he's never raced on turf before, he has shown versatility by running well on three different A/W tracks (Kempton, Newcastle & Lingfield).

He makes a handicap debut today for trainer Charlie Appleby, who is not only in good form of late, but has an excellent record here on Town Moor, making this venue probably the ideal pick for a turf/hcp debut for a 3 yr old.

Charlie's recent form stacks up like this...

  • 24/48 over the last 60 days
  • 13/28 over the last 30
  • and 2/5 in the past week

In addition/alongside the above, he's already 10/23 (43.5% SR) for 14.9pts (+64.7% ROI) for the "new" Flat (turf) season, including 1 from 2 here at Doncaster, a track where he is 25/122 (20.5% SR) for 20.4pts (+16.7% ROI) overall with his Doncaster handicappers winning 12 of 51 (23.5%) for 35.5pts at an ROI of some 69.5%.

Of these 51 Donny 'cappers...

  • males are 11/42 ( 26.2%) for 41.3pts (+98.4%)
  • 3 yr olds are 6/32 (18.75%) for 9.9pts (+30.9%)
  • over 1m to 1m4f : 9/31 (29%) for 45.8pts (+147.7%)
  • running after a break of 30 days or more : 11/30 (36.7%) for 50.1pts (+167.1%)
  • in 3yo only races : 5/23 (21.7%) for 12.6pts (+54.7%)
  • those stepping up in class are 6/19 (31.6%) for 15.5pts (+81.6%)
  • LTO winners are 5/19 (26.3%) for 9.6pts (+50.4%)
  • handicap debutants are 6/17 (35.3%) for 16pts (+94.2%)
  • over a mile : 3/10 (30%) for 23.74pts (+237.4%)
  • and on soft ground : 2/9 (22.2%) for 15.6pts (+173.1%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Night Castle @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral, Paddy Power & Skybet at 8.20pm on Friday.To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 27th April 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

8.35 Chelmsford : Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Keen tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, stayed on to go 2nd towards finish, no threat to winner)

Our next runner goes in Friday's...

2.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG

A 14-runner, Class 5,  7f Flat Handicap (34yo+) on soft ground worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?

This 69-rated 6 yr old gelding was a runner-up last time out 6 days ago, when heading the "wrong" group in a big field (19 ran!) at relatively nearby Thirsk off the same mark as today.

To date, he's a former Doncaster winner, a winner on both good to soft and heavy (I'm not sure which way the weather will go nowadays!), a winner after just five days rest and has the following of relevance today...

  • 7 wins from 29 with a tongue tie
  • 5 from 20 under jockey Ali Rawlinson
  • 5 from 19 at this trip
  • 5 from 18 in a visor
  • 5 from 16 at Class 5
  • 1 from 2 over course and distance

His trainer Mick Appleby has his horses in decent enough form, with 6 winners from 32 (18.75% SR) generating profits of 17.082pts at an ROI of 55.7% over ther last month, including...

  • Class 5 : 3/12 (25%) for 9.49pts (+79.1%)
  • Ali Rawlinson : 2/6 (33.3%) for 2.76pts (+46.1%)

The Class 5 angle is key here, much of SotD's output is done at or around this level and I have a small group of trainers to keep an eye on at this grade, especially in UK Flat (turf) handicaps and Mr Appleby is one of them, for since 2010, his record in UK Class 5 Flat handicaps stands at 55/440 (12.5% SR) for 423.94pts (+96.35% ROI) and these 440 runners include the following of relevance today...

  • Sub-£4k prize money : 52/416 (12.5%) for 424.7pts (+102.1%)
  • beaten by 0.25 lengths or more LTO : 52/378 (13.8%) for 465.5pts (+123.1%)
  • OR of 61 to 70 : 39/284 (13.7%) for 463.7pts (+163.3%)
  • males : 35/269 (13%) for 387.3pts (+144%)
  • over 6 to 9 furlongs : 27/199 (13.6^) for 389.8pts (+195.9%)
  • in Yorkshire : 21/172 (12.2%) for 279.7pts (+162.6%)
  • 2nd or 3rd LTO : 19/99 (19.2%) for 70.12pts (+70.8%)
  • 6 to 9 yr olds  :15/94 (16%) for 119.5pts (+127.1%)
  • over 7f : 8/50 (16%) for 54.25pts (+108.5%)
  • Doncaster : 5/47 (10.6%) for 11.9pts (+25.3%)
  • and former course and distance winners are 8/27 (29.6%) for 95.4pts (+353.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Call Out Loud @ 4/1 BOG which was available from 10 Bet, Bet365, Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet & SportPesa at 4.55pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.55 Lingfield : Corazon Espinado @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 13/8 Close up, headway over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, soon chased winner, kept on one pace.

Next up is Friday's...

3.10 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muthabir @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £5,630 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won 2 of his last 6 outings and was a winner over this trip when last seen a month ago at Kempton on similarly good to soft ground.

Prior to today, he's already won at this track as well as being...

  • 4/9 in fields of 7-10 runners and 4/8 when priced at 5/1 or shorter
  • 3/7 after a break of 30-45 days and 3/5 on good to soft
  • 2/4 at 3m/3m0.5f and has 2 wins under today's jockey.

In addition to his own stats, he features in one of micro-systems...

...2012-17 / Class 2-5 / male hcp hurdlers / OR 80-125 / carrying 9-13 to 10-12 / won a hcp hurdle LTO less than 5 weeks ago...

The above has produced 127 winners from 578 and the resultant 22% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 77pts at an ROI of 13.3%, from which...

  • those running on good to soft are 30/118 (25.4%) for 52.7pts (+44.6%)
  • those running in December are 16/62 (25.8%) for 24.9pts (+40.1%)
  • and those running in December on good to soft are 5/9 955.6%) for 31.6pts (+351.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Muthabir @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Betway, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2017

Friday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 15/8  Tracked leaders on inside, effort to challenge 3 out, ridden before next, kept on and every chance until no extra approaching last

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m on Good ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding with 9 top 3 finishes from 13 starts to date, including 6 wins and in those 13 races, he is...

  • 6/11 in fields of 1-11 runners (3/5 in chases)
  • 6/11 going left handed (3/6 in chases)
  • 6/9 at odds of 6/1 & shorter (3/5 in chases)
  • 3/8 over fences
  • 3/7 within 6 weeks of his last run (2/5 in chases)
  • 3/6 on Good ground (2/5 in chases)
  • 4/5 at Class 2 (2/3 in chases)
  • 3/5 in fields of 8 to 11 (1/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 in this grade (1/1 in chases)

And he's trained by Dan Skelton, whose handicap chasers priced at 7/2 to 12/1 over trips of 2m1.5f to 3m1f are 27/176 (15.3% SR) for 21.2pts (+12.1% ROI) including...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 23/131 (17.6%) for 34.5pts (+26.4%)
  • on Good ground : 15/76 (19.7%) for 24.2pts (+31.8%)
  • in the October-December period : 13/76 (17.1%) for 30.8pts (+40.5%)
  • 8 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 14.4pts (+35.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.15pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 9/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2017

Thursday's Result :

3.15 Taunton : Workbench @ 11/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Self Cert (Off Colour)

Next up is Friday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old Mare sired by Midnight Legend, whose female handicap hurdlers racing over 2m3f to 3m1.5f are 86/580 (14.8% SR) for 248pts (+42.8% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • in female only races : 42/221 (19%) for 74.32pts (+33.6%)
  • at class 4 : 37/221 (16.7%) for 131.3pts (+59.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 23/120 (19.2%) for 40.9pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.1pts (+46.7%)

She's trained by Philip Hobbs and drops down a class today and over the last 4 yrs, runners from the yard dropping down a grade in NH handicaps are 33/190 (17.4% SR) for 82.2pts (+43.2% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 13/71 (18.3%) for 62.5pts (+88.1%)
  • and females are 5/11 (45.5%) for 21.5pts (+195.1%)

She's also Philip's only runner of the day, yet embarks on a 470-mile round trip from the Somerset base and this is relevant, because over the last 6 years, when having just one runner, Mr Hobbs is 70/312 (22.4% SR) for 60.3pts (+19.3% ROI), whilst in NH handicaps during December to February on tracks 200 miles or more away from his yard, the Hobbs runners are 10/55 (18.2% SR) for 33.2pts (+60.4% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 26.6pts (+106.4%)
  • here at Doncaster : 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.1pts (+205.7%)
  • and Doncaster hurdlers are 4/10 (40%) for 39.12pts (+391.2%)

..pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 at 5.45pm on Thursday whilst both Betfred & Totesport matched that price despite not going BOG until morning and there's plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 15th September 2017

Thursday's Result :

2.25 Doncaster : Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG 3rd at 4/1 : Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by 2 x head...

Friday's pick goes in the...

1.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

Trainer Charlie Appleby is in fine form of late, clocking up 7 winners from 18 (38.9% SR) over the last fortnight, with another 5 of the losers making the frame for a place strike rate of 66.6%.

Jockey James Doyle is also in decent nick, with a 10 from 42 (23.8% SR) record during the same time and when the two have combined recently, they are 5 from 12 (41.7% SR).

More long-term than just the past two weeks, Charlie's runners here at Doncaster are 23/112 (20.5% SR) for 26.5pts (+23.7% ROI) profit and those numbers include...

  • males at 20/79 (25.3%) for 48.4pts (+61.3%)
  • over the last two seasons : 10/38 (26.3%) for 36.5pts (+96.1%)
  • males over the last two seasons are 9/32 (28.1%) for 40.2pts (+125.7%)
  • on soft ground : 3/16 (18.8%) for 10.8pts (+67.6%)
  • ridden by James Doyle : 4/9 (44.4%) for 11.7pts (+130.3%)
  • on soft ground over the last two seasons : 3/4 975%) for 22.8pts (+570%)
  • under James Doyle over the last two seasons : 2/2 (100%) for 6.8pts (+340%)

I wouldn't be too surprised if Aqabah shortens overnight and eventually goes off as favourite and that wouldn't entirely be a bad thing, for although it's a reckless policy to blindly back favourites, profit can be made from backing the right ones. This brings us back to jockey James Doyle, who is 51/110 (46.4% SR) for 22.5pts (+20.5% ROI) on favourites this year, including...

  • on 2yr olds : 20/38 (52.6%) for 5.37pts (+14.1%)
  • over the 7f trip : 18/31 (58.1%) for 12.4pts (+40%)
  • for Charlie Appleby : 11/23 (47.8%) for 4.44pts (+19.3%)
  • on soft ground : 6/8 (75%) for 5.4pts (+67.5%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 2/3 (66.6%) for 1.34pts (+44.6%)

...which gives us... a 1pt win bet on Aqabah @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by Bet365 & BetVictor at 5.30pm on Thursday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG offered elsewhere! For what it's worth, I'm on with Bet365, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th September 2017

Wednesday's Result :

4.20 Doncaster : Lahore @ 4/1 BOG WON at 7/2 : Held up behind, headway 2f out, led over 1f out, clear inside final furlong, winning by four lengths...

Thursday's pick goes in the...

2.25 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Incidentally, Roger Varian's only other runner on the Doncaster card was also a winner, also in a Class 2 handicap!

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG

Why?

A valuable Group 2 contest here for 2 yr old fillies, but perhaps somewhat surprisingly no big blockbuster list of facts and figures!

I'd several angles in with this one and in the end there was too much going on for it all to be purely coincidental, so let's just take a quick look at some of the positive lines of enquiry I discovered...

  1. She's 2 from 4 so far in the UK and won a group 3 race when last seen
  2. Trainer Mark Johnston (admittedly not always the easiest to call right stat-wise) is 4 from 11 (36.4% SR) for 6.07pts (+55.2% ROI) on this track this year with 5 of the 7 losers making the first three home, whilst those priced at 9/2 or shorter are 4/5 (80%) for 12.07pts (+241.4%)
  3. James Doyle rides today, refreshed from a rare day off on Wednesday, yet despite missing out on potential winners by resting is still 12/45 (26.7% SR) over the last fortnight
  4. She's by Arch, whose 2 yr olds are 16/82 (19.5% SR) for 78.6pts (+95.8% ROI) over the last six seasons, including...
    ...over 6f to 1m : 16/76 (21.1%) for 84.6pts (+111.3%)
    ...in non-handicaps : 13/67 (19.4%) for 81.4pts (+121.4%)
    ...females are 8/36 (22.2%) for 36.6pts (+101.6%)
    ...and at Class 1 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 22.3pts (+247.9%)
  5. And a quick look at the pace tab of the Geegeez racecard suggests possible lone speed in this race and we're also told that horses who lead do best over 1m here. So, with an average pace score of 3.75, a whole point clear of her nearest rival, she could well nick a soft early lead and control the race from the front.

...prompting me into... a 1pt win bet on Nyaleti @ 10/3 BOG, which was offered by ten different firms at 5.40pm on Wednesday, so, as ever, the choice is yours! For what it's worth, I'm on with Hills, because if she wins by 2 lengths or more I get a 15% bonus! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.25 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!