Tag Archive for: Doncaster racecourse

Tix Picks, Friday 13/09/24

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Friday's placepots can be played via Tix at Chester, Doncaster, Sandown and Salisbury...

But, what is Tix?

A video explainer can be found here.

You need a tote account to use Tix. Sign up for one here >

A few more pointers can be found in these articles:

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-1/

https://www.geegeez.co.uk/exotic-betting-multi-race-bets-part-2/

Today's pools

Today's meetings, pools and minimum guarantees are as follows...

There’s a bumper pot available at Doncaster, so let’s head there where the going is expected to be good/good to soft and the first of our six races is…

Leg 1 : 1.50 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ handicap over 1m6½f
Shadow Dance has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, Subsequent has won three of his last four and East India Dock is three from six with all three of them winning last time out and I suspect this will be a three horse race here.

The 3yo Subsequent steps up in class here, but his yard have been amongst the winners of late…

…as have the team behind East India Dock, who’ll also benefit from a 10lbs weight allowance as a 3yr old…

Of the three, East India Dock has a better looking Instant Expert profile than the other two, but that’s down to a lack of relevant races….

And when we look at the pace/draw heat map, it’s Shadow Dance that catches the eye in what might end up being a falsely run race.

From this race, I’ll be taking runners 1 & 8, Shadow Dance and East India Dock.

Leg 2 : 2.25 Doncaster, a 7-runner, 2yo Listed race over 7f
Mubaker, Jonquil and God of War all won last time out, but now step up 1, 3 and 4 classes respectively. Symbol of Honour was a decent 6th of 22 in the Coventry at Royal Ascot, beaten by less than a length and a similar run here puts him right in the mix on his first run after being gelded. He did win his penultimate outing, though.The Waco Kid is also interesting despite being unplaced in his two Class 1 runs since winning at Newbury in July. He posted solid efforts at both Goodwood and York, but it was Oisin Murphy who rode him to victory at Newbury and he’s back in the saddle today, hoping to land yet another winner for Hugo Palmer…

Pace/Draw ticks boxes for LTO winner Mubaker and Symbol of Honour...

...and in a race where there's not a great deal to go off and little to choose between several of the runners, I'll take one fancied runner Symbol of Honour and one at a more value-type price in The Waco Kid, so numbers 6 and 7 on your cards.

Leg 3 : 3.00 Doncaster, an 11-runner, 2yo Group 2 contest over 5f
This looks like a really good/competitive renewal of the Flying Childers with plenty coming here in good form, including LTO winners Tropical Storm, Zayer and Coto de Caza who comes here on a hat-trick. That said, none of this field have raced more than five times before today and all have won at least once, as between them they have made the frame 27 times (inc 15 wins) from just 40 starts with Aesterius placing in three of four and Magnum Force in all three runs.

From a trainer form perspective, Tropical Storm’s yard have 31 wins and 31 further places from 155 runners here at Doncaster since the start of 2018, including 10 wins and 8 places from 46 at Class 1 and their recent overall form is good, too.

Aesterius is the one who has produced the best results so far under today's expected conditions...

...so I'm going to take (1) Aesterius on place form and Instant Expert and (8) Tropical Storm on horse/trainer form, whilst it would be rude of me to ignore (4) Big Mojo after the way he landed the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Goodwood recently.

Leg 4 : 3.35 Doncaster, a 6-runner, 3yo+ Group 2 contest over 2m2f

Sweet William is the obvious placer here, having never failed to finish in the first three home in all 13 career starts and when you factor in the fact that his jockey Robert Havlin is not only in decent recent form, but also has a great record for the Gosdens over the last few years (61.7% place strike rate), then Sweet William has to be a solid picks here, but I’m sure the market will reflect that too.

The backup plan for many punters will be stablemate Gregory, but I’ve still got a bit of a soft spot for the oldest horse in the race, Trueshan who won this race last year. He was, admittedly, four lengths behind the afore-mentioned Gosdens pair last time out, but he probably wasn’t suited by ground quicker than he’ll face today and Instant Expert paints him in a really good light…

So, that's runners 4 (Sweet William) and 5 (Trueshan) for leg 4

Leg 5 : 4.10 Doncaster, a 7-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ fillies handicap over 1m4f

Bint Al Daar has two wins and two runner-up finishes from her last four outings and is the only runner in the race not stepping up in class and in a race with no weight allowances, she’d actually be my pick to go on and win the race, but the in-form Cabrera gets 8lbs here as a 3yo and that will make her a hot property in the market in what is is possibly going to be a two-horse race.

A quick look at Instant Expert not only affirms Cabrera’s chances, but also raises questions of most of her rivals…

...whilst the pace/draw heat map seems to favour low drawn runners irrespective of running style

...and with both of these horses drawn inside the first three stalls, the picks have to be (3) Bint Al Daar & (4) Cabrera

Leg 6 : 4.45 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 2, 2yo maiden fillies race over 7f

And we close with probably the toughest race to call, so if we're still in the game at this point, we might need some luck.

Only three of the field have even raced before with Berning Hot and Kebili both finishing seventh on their debuts, whilst Whirl has finished fourth and the fifth, suggesting that it might not take much to beat any of this trio.

Of the newcomers, the one that catches my eye first is Kingsclere, a full sister to 2020’s 2000 Guineas winner Kameko, whilst fellow debutante Gulya is a Night of Thunder filly whose half-sister Maroof was a winner at trips up to a mile.

I suspect that these two will be amongst the main players, but at longer odds, I think the likes of Coma Cluster (Sir Michael Stoute has a 30.8% strike rate with 2yo debutants over the last year) and Like A Vision (the O’Meara/Tudhope axis is strong right now) could well get involved.

As with any of these types of races, the market is often a good indicator of things might pan out, so I’ll take the un-named favourite for the place pot along with runners (3) Coma Cluster, (4) Gulya, (6) Kingsclere & (7) Like A Vision.

So that gives me...

Leg 1: horses 1 & 8

Leg 2: horses 6 & 7

Leg 3: horses 1, 4 & 8

Leg 4: horses 4 & 5

Leg 5: horses 3 & 4

Leg 6: horses 3, 4, 6 & 7 plus the fav!

...and here's how I'd play them...

 

Wish me luck, I think I might need it!
Chris

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/02/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.45 Punchestown
  • 3.05 Doncaster
  • 3.15 Punchestown
  • 5.30 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have yielded just the following pair of qualifiers on 30-day trainer form...

And with the Donny race from the race being a better grade than the three A/W options above, we're off to Town Moor for the 3.05 Doncaster, an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good to soft ground, that is already soft in places with more rain expected...

My immediate thoughts were that this might well be a three-horse race between (in card order) Big Blue Moon, Betterforeveryone and Event of Sivola (not the usual de Sivola). It's worth noting that Big Blue Moon hasn't raced for 11 months and is up in class here, as are Event of Sivola and bottom-weight Roxboro Road, whilst Almazhar Garde drops down a level, having failed to place last out.

In fact, Almazhar Garde hasn't won a race since mid-April 2021 and is on a run of 19 consecutive defeats. All bar Roxboro Road (no win in 11 since April Fools Day 2021) of his rivals have, however, won at least one of their last seven efforts with Horacio Apples winning three of seven and our sole LTO winner Event of Sivola having two wins and a runner-up finish from his last three. Roxboro Road is also one of just two (Big Blue Moon being the other) yet to win over this trip, although the field's 5-year stats over fences aren't great...

...especially when you bear in mind that Roxboro Road's win are all from three years ago or more and Big Blue Moon has yet to tackle a fence! I suppose the fact that he's in my initial top-3 despite not having been chasing yet and he hasn't raced for eleven months sums up the lack of quality here! The place stats do at least give us more to work with...

...and they suggest that Betterforeveryone should relish conditions here, having made the frame in two from three over fences. He fell at the first fence here on the time he failed to place, so we've no idea how he would have ran, but he has tended to run in mid-division like many of this field with only Event of Sivola showing any propensity to get on with things...

...and it looks like Event of Sivola's running style might just pay dividends here for a third win in four...

Summary

I started with Big Blue Moon, Betterforeveryone and Event of Sivola as my three 'most likelies' and whilst not all three have presented an outstanding or compelling case for themselves, I stand by the call, because none of the rivals have made me change my mind. Of the three, Event of Sivola would be the one I'd pick. He comes here in the best form (121), he gets weight from the other two, he's the only one of the three to have won at this grade and could well be given a soft lead to defend over a course and distance that has rewarded front runners.

Of the other pair, I'd take Betterforeveryone over Big Blue Moon, as the former scored better on Instant Expert and will race further forward, whilst the latter makes a chase debut after an 11-month break and has never gone beyond 2m4f. Big Blue Moon is probably the one of the trio that looks most vulnerable/susceptible to one from the pack beating him and the one lost likely to do so looks like Horatio Apple's, as the other four runners look out of their depth.

Unsurprisingly, the bookies have also split the field in two with the first-to show Bet365 offering these odds at 4.30pm Tuesday...



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2024 Great Yorkshire Chase Trends

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Staged at Doncaster racecourse the Great Yorkshire Chase (formerly the Skybet Chase) is a Premier Handicap run over 3m. The race can often throw up some Grand National clues, although no winner in the last 16 runnings has gone onto win the Aintree marathon.

In recent years, the Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Pipe stables have dominated the race with two wins a-piece since 2003, while in the last 18 runnings we’ve seen just two winning favourites.

We look back at recent winners (note, the 2010 and 2011 runnings were abandoned) and gives you the key stats to take into the 2024 renewal – this year being run on Saturday 27th January.

==========================================

Recent Skybet Chase Winners

2023 – COOPER’S CROSS (16/1)
2022 – WINDSOR AVENUE (40/1)
2021 - TAKINGRISKS (40/1)
2020 – OK CORRAL (9/1)
2019 - GO CONQUER
2018 - WAKANDA (8/1)
2017 – ZIGA BOY (10/1)
2016 – ZIGA BOY (8/1)
2015 – IF IN DOUBT (4/1 fav)
2014 – RAINBOW HUNTER (25/1)
2013 – Meeting Abandoned
2012 – CALGARY BAY (12/1)
2009 – BIG FELLA THANKS (9/2)
2008 – AN ACCORDION (11/2 fav)
2007 – SIMON (7/1)
2006 – A GLASS IN THYNE (16/1)
2005 – COLOURFUL LIFE (9/1)
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (7/1)
2003 – BARRYSCOURT LAD (9/2)

Skybet Chase Betting Trends

17/18 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
15/18 – Carried 11-2 or less
14/18 – Officially rated 130 or higher
13/18 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
13/18 – Aged 9 or younger12/18 – Irish bred
11/18 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
10/18 – Carried 10-12 or less
10/18 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Winning favourites
2/18 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 13/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
6 of the last 17 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

 

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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/01/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to check out...

 

...plus as ever, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.15 Fairyhouse
  • 4.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.15 Newcastle
  • 5.45 Newcastle
  • 6.00 Kempton

Messrs Lacey & Iles have a good record over the last year together, whilst the O'Brien/Brennan combo have a 50% strike rate at Doncaster in recent years and both have runners (Luttrell Lad & Punctuation) in the 12.55 Doncaster, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m3½f on good ground...

More runners here than I'm generally comfortable with, but I'm hoping the race will afford me some decent-priced E/W angles.

Geronimo and Rich Spirit both won LTO, whilst Wolf Prince, Luttrell Lad and Call of the Wild were all runners-up. Aside from Sans Bruit (useful French hurdler & chaser now making a handicap debut over hurdles), who has no UK form to call upon, all bar Wolf Prince have won at least one of their last seven but he's winless in twelve and despite finishing 232 in his last three, he's not for me after a 532-day absence.

Rich Spirit also makes a handicap debut here and steps up two classes which will make life tougher than he found it in his 10-length victory at Catterick a week before Christmas. Call of the Wild, In From The Cold and Alien Storm all step one class too, whilst the top two in the weights, No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation both drop in class. Not only is French raider Sans Bruit making both a UK and a handicap debut, he's had wind surgery during a 231-day absence from the track. Of the remainder, Alfie Storm has had a three-month break with everyone else seeing some action in the last ten weeks; In From The Cold ran just a fortnight ago.

The Big Bite, Call of the Wild and Geronimo are all former Doncaster winners, whilst No Ordinary Joe, Punctuation, The Big Bite, Sans Bruit, Geronimo and Rich Spirit have all managed to win over a similar trip to this one...

Instant Expert above doesn't have a great deal of relevant past data, but Geronimo seems pretty well suited by conditions ahead, whilst the biggest concern is probably Wolf Prince's 1 from 10 record at the trip. Mind you, I'm not backing him anyway! As I'm going to be looking for some E/W plays today, let's check the place stats from those races above...

...where No Ordinary Joe, Punctuation, Wolf Prince (!), Call of the Wild, Geronimo and Luttrell Lad are the ones with the mainly green records. Wolf Prince is actually nagging me now because he looks well suited for the task and was running well before his lengthy absence. Something for me to ponder, after I've considered the pace angles around a race that has tended to suit front-runners in the past...

A quick click of the pace button on the racecard then tells me that Luttrell Lad, Geronimo and guess who, Wolf Prince are the likely front-runners/pacemakers here...

Summary

The two runners I like most in this field are actually No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation, but possibly/probably not for this race!

No Ordinary Joe was a very useful hurdler last season, but flopped on his chase debut two months ago after having an eight month break. He should strip fitter for having had that run, but shouldn't be suited by the pace here. He hasn't tackled a hurdle since mid-April and might just need another run to get going and as such, a 4.10pm price of 17/2 seems fair.

Punctuation comes from the TJC Report and scored well off a small sample size on Instant Expert. Like No Ordinary Joe, he drops in class here and also seems unsuited by the pace set-up and at 16lbs higher than his last hurdles win and up in trip, he might not have enough in reserve to get home. His 9/1 price offers a little more value than No Ordinary Joe, though.

So where next? Well, we're back to the pace/Instant Expert combo...the previously-discussed No Ordinary Joe and Punctuation were highlighted by Instant Expert for place results along with the nagging itch Wolf Prince, Call of the Wild, Geronimo and Luttrell Lad, whilst Luttrell Lad, Geronimo and Wolf Prince were our pace horses and it's this trio that I'm going to look at next.

Luttrell Lad also comes from the TJC Report and as well as winning three starts ago was a one-length runner-up off today's mark last time out at the same class, trip and going as this race. A similar run puts him right on the shortlist here and could be a decent E/W prospect at 15/2. Wolf Prince is the one I wanted to ignore after such a long break, but he seems to be everywhere I turn. If he's race fit, then he should relish conditions and if allowed to control the race from the front, could easily stay in contention to the end. I suspect the market will be the key to his chances between now and race time, but his current 10/1 ticket would suggest he has chances of making the frame.

And finally, to the horse I like best for the race, Geronimo, he comes here after a great run of form, he won LTO under today's jockey and is only up 2lbs. He was the eyecatcher from instant Expert and is sure to be up with the pace. He's currently also 9/1 and that looks a really good E/W option to me.

To be honest, all five of these could well make the frame and all are at E/W backable prices. The bookies are paying four places, so you could play more than once, but good luck and have a great wekend.

 

 

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 12.20 Doncaster
  • 12.50 Doncaster
  • 2.50 Leicester

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and I think we'll have a look at Tom Lacey's 7 yr old gelding Cruz Control in the 2.00 Doncaster, a 9-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over what is effectively 2m5f after rail movements on good to soft that might be a little softer in places...

My initial thoughts were that this might well be a two-horse race between featured horse Cruz Control and Raffle Ticket, but let's take a closer look at the information available to us starting with recent form, where in the absence of an LTO winner, the runner-up finishes by the horses already mentioned are the best recent results.

Both horses have won two of their last seven, as have Hitching Jacking, Nothin To Ask and Getway Luv, whilst One Fine Man is three from seven and Demachine & Ubetya are both 1 from 7, with only Dreams of Home winless, although he did win 8 and 9 races ago and he was actually 6 from 11 prior to his last seven runs/defeats.

Joint top weight Demachine drops two classes here after three unplaced Class 1 efforts and Nothin To Ask is down one class, whilst it's a first run in new equipment for both Hitching Jacking (cheekpieces) and featured runner, Cruz Control (tongue tie).

Demachine is also the only one without a run on the last nine weeks or so, as he returns from a nine month absence, so it's possible he's going to need the run today but he has at least won a race over a similar trip to this one with only Dreams of Home, One Fine Man and Getaway Luv yet to do so, but only Nothin To Ask has won here at Doncaster before, having landed a Class 3, 2m3f, handicap novice chase here back in November 2022, as shown below on Instant Expert...

...where only Ubetya's record at the trip looks a cause for concern. Dreams of Home's poor run of form is highlighted by him now being 11lbs lower in the ratings than his last win.

In the past, this type of race has suited the front-running types...

...which, based on this field's most recent efforts would appear to be yet more good news for the in-form featured runner Cruz Control...

...but not quite so good for rival Raffle Ticket.

Summary

Short, but hopefully sweet today. I started with the initial thought that this might well be a two-horse race between featured horse Cruz Control and Raffle Ticket and no other horse has really forced themselves into that equation. Both are in good form, of course and both look a better standard than the others, but Cruz Control's front-running could be the difference here.

In which case, I'll take the 3/1 (Hills, as of 3.50pm) Cruz Control to beat the 13/2 (almost E/W territory!) Raffle Ticket.

Demachine might well be the best of the rest dropping in class, but I think 10/3 is pretty short about a horse with no run in nine months, no win since May '22 and just the one win since the end of November 2020! I don't think there's an E/W bet for me here, but current 18/1 outsider One Fine Man could outrun his odds, having finished 21137 in his five starts over fences in 2023.



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Racing Insights, Friday 29/12/23

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Friday is Horses For Courses (H4C) report day at Geegeez and this feature does exactly what you'd expect, as it shows the full course history since 2009 of any horse running that has previously had a run at that track, sorted by number of wins, but this can be changed to any column at your discretion.

As well as today’s race time, course, horse name, jockey and trainer name, there is a breakdown of runs, wins and places, and profit and loss calculations for both win and each way betting. And as with all Geegeez reports, there is a ‘Today’ and a ‘Tomorrow’ (for the next day’s racing) view.

HINT: Layers might like to look towards the lower end of the report, for those with negative performance at the track, but please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My chosen settings for the H4C report...

...have sadly yielded no qualifiers, but your own chosen parameters might give more joy. Thankfully, this free report is, of course, backed up by our daily list of 'free' races...

  • 1.45 Leopardstown
  • 3.10 Limerick
  • 3.25 Leopardstown
  • 6.30 Southwell

That sole UK race above isn't a terrible one, but I think I'll take a look at the day's highest-rated UK race instead. That's the 1.40 Doncaster and it's an 8-runner Listed chase contest for Mares aged 4 and over. There's 16 fences to be jumped over a left-handed 2m4½f on good to soft ground and here's how they'll line up...

Zambella has won this race in each of the last two years and arrives here on the back of a win last time out, as does Pink Legend. Likely favourite Limerick Lace was a Grade 3 runner-up last month and has 3 wins from her last 6 outings, as do Zambella and La Renommee whilst Pink Legend is four from six! Royale Margaux is the only one without a win in six, and as a maiden beaten at Class 3 last time out, she looks set to struggle here.

She's up two classes today and looks the weakest in this field; Walk In Clover (who ran in a race we covered a fortnight ago) is also up two classes after failing to make the frame and is also probably one to discount early. Top-weight Fantastic Lady also steps up in class despite labouring somewhat at Aintree in a Class 2 handicap.

She is however (as you'll see below shortly) just one of two previous course winners having landed a Class 4 Novice Hurdle over 2m3½f way back in March 2021. Our other course winner is Zambella, of course, who has won this race in each of the last two years. The trip, however, is a familiar one to this field, as all bar Carole's Pass and Royale Margaux have already won at simlar distances, as shown here on Instant Expert, where no horse ticks all the boxes...

Zambella is the standout for me here, despite only making the frame twice in six efforts without winning on good to soft ground. If truth be told, she'd like it softer than it currently is, but she knows the lie of the land here. Pink Legend is a winner of five Class 1 chases and that's not to be sniffed at. Her record on good to soft is decent enough, but she's also 4 from 6 on good ground, so her chances might improve in this drier weather, especially if the winds help to dry out the track.

Zambella's approach to winning this race the last two years has been to ping the tapes and make all and this would certainly seem to be generally right the approach over this course and distance on good to soft ground...

...with those racing in mid-division or further back struggling to land a blow. 60% of leaders manage to hold on for a place with 40% of those placers going on to win, which is another vote of confidence for Pink Legend as well as Zambella...

...as they look the likely pace makers here.

Summary

Zambella won a Listed event at Aintree by seventeen lengths last time out but would prefer it softer here. That said, she's well versed at track and trip and scores really well on Instant Expert. She'll be up with the pace and she'd be the one for me here.

Pink Legend also scored well on Instant Expert and has won five Class 1 chases including last time out and two of her last three. She's also got a good pace profile for this race and is a very likely placer here today. Limerick Lace will be well fancied by the market, but has come up short on her last few Class 1 outings and would also prefer softer ground.

I think she's the best of the rest and may well in time emerge as the best in this race, but I prefer Zambella today.

Sadly, the early (3.30pm) market also likes the three I've highlighted...

...but it's Zambella for me and no E/W pick unless Pink Legend drifts somewhat!



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Racing Insights, Saturday 16/09/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

14-day form...

1-year form...

course 5-year form...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.50 Doncaster
  • 1.58 Lingfield
  • 2.10 Navan
  • 4.40 Gowran Park
  • 5.20 Doncaster
  • 7.10 Musselburgh

The last two of the 'free' races each have a runner from my TJC Report and although it has more runners than I'm usually comfortable with, the better rated of the two is the 5.20 Doncaster, a 15-runner, Class 2, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground...

Only The Gatekeeper comes here off the back of a win, but Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher (won two starts back) and Freedom Day (won three races ago) were all in the frame on their last outings.

All have raced in the last two (Spioradalta) to eight (Liberty Lane) wee and most of these ran in this grade last time out, but Pisanello steps up a class and it's a two-step rise for Titian, Freedom Day and Look Back Smiling.

That latter pair are both 3 yr olds and they receive a 4lb weight allowance here, as does Spioradalta, who once again wears cheekpieces, as does Look Back Smiling. Elsewhere Spirit Catcher wears a hood, Blue For You has a visor and both Sonny Liston & Empirestateofmind are blinkered. La Trinidad, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling will all be ridden by claiming jockeys, but the latter pair run from 3lbs and 7lbs out of the handicap here.

All bar Sonny Liston, Liberty Lane, Spioradalta and Look Back Smiling have already won over a similar trip, but onlt La Trinidad has won over course and distance. That said, Titian's win here over 1m2f almost two years ago is the only other course success, as Instant Expert says that the field are 3 from 15 here at Doncaster...

We do have some past soft ground form, but the field have generally disappointed at Class 2. We've touched on the course/distance wins, of course and the above doesn't really inspire. It does. however, suggest that some have tried and failed several times under expected conditions with Brunch, Empirestateofmind, La Trinidad and Dutch Decoy having struggled to win at this grade, whilst Brunch and Spirit Catcher's percentages over this trip leave work to do at 3 from 24. There is, of course, the possibility that they've been unlucky or have been 'there or thereabouts' in defeat, so let's check the place stats...

...where the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta have performed best.

We have fifteen runners strung across the track for a straight mile and I wasn't expecting to see much of a draw bias and the stats haven't let me down in that respect...

Sadly, this doesn't get me any closer to finding a winner or an E/W bet, but I suppose those drawn lowest might have a small advantage based on the above, but I suspect it will be a case of 'pace wins the race', by which I mean the horses that has the best tactics. Those races above for the draw stats have best suited those setting the tempo from the front...

...which based on recent efforts opens the door for the likes of Spirit Catcher, Titian and The Gatekeeper....

I also suppose that if we ignore his last outing, Liberty Lane will also be keen to apply early pressure.

Summary

This looks a wide open race and I can see why Sonny Liston is the early favourite after some creditable runs in defeat. I can't back him at 9/2 or 11/2 in a 15-runner race, though. Not when he's only 1 from 12 on turf and 0 from 5 at this trip. I know he has contested better races than this, but his sole win was at Class 4 in a 7f Novice event on debut more than 26 months ago. I'm not saying he can't win, but his current odds offer me no comfort.

So, where do I stand? Well, I want to reconsider form, Instant Expert and pace...

The Gatekeeper, Brunch, Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher and Freedom Day appeared to be bringing the best recent form to the table, whilst the likes of Empirestateofmind, Titian, Pisanello and Spioradalta had the best place scores on Instant Expert. The pace angle pointed to Spirit Catcher, Titian, The Gatekeeper and Liberty Lane.

It's not exactly scientific, but in those three areas I've just revisited, the names of Empirestateofmind, Spirit Catcher, The Gatekeeper and Titian all appear twice, so this quartet are going to be my E/W possibles. And as of 4.15pm on Friday, my quartet were priced at 8/1, 10/1, 11/1 and 16/1 and I'd be happy to back any/all of them to make the frame. I'm not necessarily saying any are good enough to win, but who knows in such an open race?

The bookies are paying four places (5 at Sky, of course), so you can take your pick. As for the one I like best of the four; probably The Gatekeeper.

He won a similar soft ground, 1m, Class 2 handicap last time out when ridden by today's jockey Rossa Ryan for the first time and was a decent second in the 20-runner Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood last month, when beaten by just half a length. He was first home of those drawn low and had Dutch Decoy a length and a place behind him with Sonny Liston a further two mplaces and 1.5 lengths further back.

Please Note : I'm away all weekend moving my youngest into university at Exeter (just 270 miles from home!), so I won't be around on Sunday to preview Monday's action, sorry.

 



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Racing Insights, Thursday 14/09/23

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Did you know that the Instant Expert tab is by far the most popular tab on the geegeez racecards?

That's because it has the ability to condense the entire form profile of every runner in the race into a single, easily digestible, view. The report covers the form in terms of wins (or places), runs, and win (or place) percentage for each of going, class, course, distance, and field size. It also compares today’s official rating with the horse’s last winning official rating. The display is colour coded: green for a higher percentage rate, amber for a middling percentage, and red for a low percentage. Horses with no form under a certain condition have grey figures.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Where a horse has no UK/Irish form – i.e. it is having its first run in Britain or Ireland under Rules – it will not show up on Instant Expert at all.

This GOLD feature is so important that we make freely available to ALL readers EVERY Thursday alongside our usual selection of FREE races which, for this Thursday are...

  • 3.25 Epsom
  • 3.35 Doncaster
  • 4.50 Naas
  • 5.00 Ffos Las
  • 5.35 Ffos Las

...and with an £82k, Class 1 contest on the free list, it would be remiss of me not to cover the Betfred Park Hill Fillies Stakes aka the 3.35 Doncaster. It's a 10-runner, Group 2 flat contest for fillies and mares aged 3 or over and they'll tackle a left-handed 1m6½f on good to soft/soft ground. Here's the card...

On results alone, Night Sparkle brings the best set of recent figures to the table, having won her last three on the Flat (last four overall), but she's the only class mover here, as she steps up from Class 3 for her debut for Andrew Balding's yard. Elsewhere, Sumo Sam made all to land the Gr2 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood over 1m6f on heavy ground, whilst Ching Shih, Divine Jewel and One Evening were all Class 1 runners-up with Crack of Light also making the frame on her last run. Those four ran at G3, Listed, Listed & Listed class respectively.

We've mentioned that Night Sparkle is up in class for her yard debut already, but I should add that Shamwari wears cheekpieces for the first time and she receives a useful 10lb weight allowance as one of five three year olds in the race, along with Boogie Woogie, Crack of Light, Lmay and Sumo Sam, although the latter bears a 3lb penalty for that excellent win six weeks ago, but still gets 7lbs from most of the field.

That win was 40 days ago and whilst some of the others appear to have been off track longer, those days since last run don't include overseas contests. If we include them, then Sumo Sam's 40-day rest is the longest of the ten runners, whilst Divine Jewel is the quickest back out, 12 days after a runner-up finish at Chester and her record over similar trips to this one is the best on offer today, according to Instant Expert...

In fairness, many of these are untried/untested at this longer trip, but both Night Sparkle and Sumo Sam have picked up wins under similar circumstances, whilst the place data looks like this...

...where only Lmay and possibly Golden Lyra look a little out of their depth/comfort zones. Lmay will be drawn widest of all ten runners, but I'm not convinced that the draw should play too big a role in a race of around a mile and three quarters, but we should always check the data, just in case...

...which is interesting. I'd not expected such a disparity from those drawn lowest, but the above is backed up by the PRB3 figures, which would appear to favour those drawn 4 or higher...

...although the places stats are less conclusive in that direction...

...whilst if we home in on the actual trip of this race, we're then told that front-runners haven't fared too well either...

...which doesn't bode well for the likes of Night Sparkle and/or Boogie Woogie if their recent outings are anything to go by...

...but if truth be told, not many of this field come out well on the pace/draw combo...

Those in the centre do seem to have the best of it, but only Golden Lyra, Boogie Woogie and Nighy Sparkle look out of it.

Summary

For a race of this 'quality' (although I suspect this is a poor renewal), we've not had much help from the data and it may well revert back to form and that unquantifable element : 'gut feeling' and my gut feeling here is that Sumo Sam, One Evening and Ching Shih would be the ones most likely to succeed.

The bookies agree to an extent, as that trio are 4/1, 7/1 and 15/2 respectively and with some firms paying four places, I'd also be interested in Crack of Light at 12/1, but it's not a race that I'll investing much time or money in/on.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 22/07/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.30 Curragh
  • 2.00 Curragh
  • 3.20 Ripon
  • 3.35 Newbury
  • 4.35 Cartmel
  • 7.15 Doncaster

If I'm totally honest, I don't really fancy of Saturday's racing at all, including the ten races above, but the show must go on! To that end, I'm going to head to Town Moor and have a quick look at a very open looking 7.45 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to soft ground. The track is soft in places and more rain is expected, but here's the line-up...

Game Set won last time out and the sole three year old in the field has on both his previous runs to date and gets a useful 7lbs weight allowance on his handicap debut, but he is up two classes here.

Sir Thomas Gresham, Hickory, Brazen Bolt, Mudamer and Maywake were all runners-up LTO and most of the field have been in decent form of late.

The top two on the card, Gweedore and Atrium both take a drop in class, but Brazen Bolt, Danzan, Mudamer, Maywake and Tribal Wisdom are all up one grade.

Only Sir Thomas Gresham, Mudamer and bottom weight Tribal Wisdom have yet to win over this trip and Game Set is a course and distance winner. Atrium and Woven have also won here at Doncaster before, over a mile and 6f respectively.

Sir Thomas Gresham returns from a nine week break, but the remainder have all raced in the past month with top weight Gweedore having a run last Friday in a good race at York and Instant Expert suggests that he'll relish the underfoot conditions expected here...

The field is short on Class 3 wins with Gweedore, Woven and Danzan sharing a rather mediocre 4 from 33 record. Danzan does look rather out of his depth here across the board and Maywake has a poor record at the trip.

To be fair, there isn't much green on that chart generally, so let's check the place stats...

...which look a lot better and also show why I think this is a fairly open-looking contest. Unsurprisingly, when broken down into sectors/thirds, there appears to be little if any draw bias...

...but the PRB3 stats do imply that those drawn lowest have fared better than average...

Pace, however, is another matter, as there's a definite pattern formed...

...whereby those setting the early pace have invariably been swallowed up by the pack. Leaders make the frame most often, but have a terrible record of turning places in to wins at just 12.5%, whilst those not setting the pace have 36 wins from just 97 placed finishes at a 37.1% conversion rate. All of which doesn't look like good news for Gweedore, Danzan and Maywake...

Summary (as of 4pm)

Not an easy race to call and the soft option would be for me to say "back Game Set" and the reasoning would be obvious, he's in form, gets a weight allowance, will race prominently and has won over course and distance. If I can get 7/2 or bigger, then I could well be tempted into a bet. Sadly I reckon he'll be quite a bit shorter and I'd be wary at sub-3/1 odds about a horse we know little about.

Sir Thomas Gresham interests me, though. He's lightly raced for an 8 yr old, has a low draw, will race prominently and is invariably on the premises. The oddschecker tissue suggests 8/1 and I'd certainly have some of that as an E/W bet if available and you could make a case for Hickory, who too is lightly raced, but has won three of six. He wasn't beaten by far last time out and should be involved again here. His OC tissue price is only 6/1, though, so no E/W bet there.

It's a very open race, but these would be the three I'd want to focus on.

4.45pm odds update : My three are priced at 5/2, 9/2 and 7/2 on bet365's opening show, so the oddschecker forecast wasn't great and I'm not going to get involved at those odds. Should any drift, then I could well have a bet later.



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Spring Mile / Lincoln Video Preview

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To mark the return of flat turf racing to Britain, I've recorded some thoughts on the two big field mile handicaps being run at Doncaster tomorrow. The Spring Mile and the Lincoln are both Class 2 straight mile handicaps and both have 22 runners as I write. The ground is currently soft, heavy in places, with the sky taps still turned on - so heavy might be what we get.

With all that in mind, I share my thoughts in the video below. In it, I share:

- Common features between the races
- Draw / run style biases
- Instant Expert overviews
- Some picks!

[*As ever, if I speak too slowly for you, use the little cog icon bottom right on the video to choose a faster playback speed]

Good luck!

Matt

 



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Racing Insights, Saturday 28/01/23

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated qualifiers solely on the 1 year form filter for both track and generally, as follows...

...for me to consider in addition to our selection of daily 'free' races...

  • 1.57 Uttoxeter
  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.32 Uttoxeter
  • 3.15 Doncaster
  • 5.30 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

And as it's quite rare for me to get a top level stayers' handicap on the 'free' list, I think I need to look at the second of our Town Moor offerings, the 3.15 Doncaster, a 12-runner, Class 1, 5yo+ handicap chase over a left-handed three miles on good ground...

Quite a few of these come here in decent form; Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley and Coopers Cross were all runners-up in their last race, whilst top-weight GA Law was a winner and Tea For Free has won four on the bounce.

Conversely Windsor Avenue has been pulled up in four of five runs since winnig this race last year and at the age of 11 isn't getting any younger/better. He is, however, the only course and distance winner in the field, courtesy of his run 12 months ago and both Undersupervision & Shanty Alley have Doncaster victories to their names via 3m2f chase wins. Elsewhere only GA Law, Elvis Mail, Mister Coffey, Undersupervision and Coopers Cross have yet to win at this trip.

Four of the top six in the weights raced at this grade last time out, but the rest of the field are either up 1 class (Elvis Mail, Java Point, Cooper's Cross, Cap du Nord) or stepping up from Class 3 action (Mister Coffey, Tea for Free, Undersupervision, Shanty Alley).

GA Law has been off the track the longest at eleven weeks, but within a day the rest of the field have had at least four weeks rest, but have raced in the last eight. GA Law comes back 8lbs higher than his LTO win meaning he'll now carry some 25lbs more than bottom-rated Cap du Nord.

We know that some have these have won over track and trip separately or together in Windsor Avenue's case, but Instant Expert tells me that we have six good ground chase winners and four Class 1 chase winners and although he has never tackled track nor trip, GA Law seems the best suited by conditions...

...but at 8lbs higher than LTO and 3½ furlongs further than he's ever raced before, this won't be a walk in the park with four of his rivals all having won at 3m2f. Windsor Avenue won this race last year, but his record at this class/trip are poor, as is Shanty Alley at the trip, whilst Cap du Nord just looks generally weak.

The corresponding place stats are interesting, though...

Windsor Avenue still looks like being outclassed and Cap du Nord looks like he'll struggle, but Shanty Alley would actually appear to get this trip well, he just doesn't win often enough (he has 8 places and 4 incompletes from his last 12!), but if he gets round he could go well, especially if he's allowed to dictate the tempo of the contest, as according to our pace stats over the field's last four outings, he looks like a candidate to lead them around...

...with Cooper's Cross and Undersupervision the ones biding their time at the back, a tactic that might enable them to pick tiring runners off late on and maybe make the frame, but those 'up top' seems to fare best of all...

Summary

On form you've got to be looking at Mister Coffey, Java Point, Shanty Alley, Coopers Cross, GA Law and Tea For Free as the stronger half of the field. Of these six, GA Law caught the eye on Instant Expert with the others scoring well on place form.

Coopers Cross runs the risk of having too much to do late on from a hold-up position and that's a negative for me. GA Law is probably the one to beat here, but I don't think 5/2 or 3/1 offers great value at 8lbs higher and quite a step up in trip. A similar story for Tea For Free regarding the weight going up by 7lbs, but he'll go well again, I'd guess. That said 11/2 isn't enough to tempt me into an E/W bet.

One who might be worth considering as a long shot E/W punt is front-running Shanty Alley. Instant Expert shows he makes the frame regularly and has done so in 8 of his last 12 and 8 of the last 8 he has completed! He's currently as big as 20/1 and some firms will pay five places instead of four, so who knows?

No column on Sunday for Monday's racing, I'm away for the weekend (Mrs Chris' birthday), but I'll be back with a preview for Tuesday, so have a great weekend.



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Monday Musings: Doncaster Pays its Respects

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They stood in the owners’ lunchroom at Doncaster yesterday on Mike Cattermole’s cue and perfectly observed the requested two minutes’ silence, writes Tony Stafford. Then, on the big screen behind the excellent cold and hot buffet, was the unforgettable image of Her Late Majesty’s greatest moment as a racehorse owner – never mind winning the Gold Cup with Estimate – the grainy St Leger victory of her home-bred filly Dunfermline in 1977, her Silver Jubilee.

Alone now of the principals of that moment, the indefatigable Willie Carson is still very much with us. With that distinctive head looking down style, along with the rhythmic punching action, he kept Dunfermline in touch with the super horse that was the previously unbeaten and never again vanquished dual Arc winner, Alleged, and Lester Piggott.

Unbelievably, the filly can be seen closing the gap that Lester began to extend once taking the lead at the four-furlong pole. In the last furlong, the filly joined her rival and inexorably gained the advantage. You can see Lester pointedly easing Alleged in the last few strides – no sign of a rat-tat-tat response once he knew the Vincent O’Brien colt was beaten.

Seven years earlier, the same peerless pair, O’Brien and Piggott, had arrived at Doncaster with a similarly unbeaten American-bred colt in the shape of Nijinsky. In his case he did indeed win the St Leger but his exertions in becoming the first (and last) Triple Crown winner since Bahram in 1935 prefaced defeats in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe and Champion Stakes.

Alleged, a late developer whose fragile forelegs had persuaded connections to race him in Europe despite his dirt pedigree, did not contest either of the earlier UK Classics. Piggott’s restraint on Town Moor left him fresh enough to win his first Arc three weeks later when Dunfermline did well to finish fourth. He followed up impressively in Europe’s Championship race twelve months later before retiring to stud in Kentucky.

In another uncanny moment, as the Dunfermline race was being shown, and the Royal hearse was making its six-hour roadside-packed way from Balmoral to Edinburgh, trainer Ben Hanbury happened to sit down at the next table to myself. We showed our respective respects without talking and I’m not sure quite how I recognised the former Newmarket trainer, soberly dressed, without the colourful trousers he always wore at Keeneland where Midway Lady was bought.

She won five of her six races and was unbeaten at three in 1986 when she won both the 1,000 Guineas and Oaks. Injury prevented any further active involvement but she bred an Oaks winner in Eswarah, trained by Michael Jarvis, in 2005. You guessed it, Midway Lady was a daughter – the best daughter – of Alleged.

Earlier, on my way to the track, I listened to a Radio 5 Live broadcast where I’m sure I heard that Dunfermline, situated between Perth and Edinburgh, was to be one of the towns where the car could be seen.

I bumped into fellow Arsenal fan and Derby-winning jockey Willie Ryan (Benny The Dip, 1997) in the seats outside the Press Room as they milled around before the start of the big race. He had driven Frankie Dettori to the races, laughing as he related the former champion had cried off riding Emily Dickinson for the Coolmore team to partner another filly, Ralph Beckett’s Haskoy, for whom a £50,000 supplementary entry fee was paid.

“I’ve backed Emily”, said Willie. “Frankie keeps switching off winners”, he laughed. Ryan agreed that to consider the St Leger in any ground as a mile and three-quarters race was mistaken. “It’s a long 14 furlongs anyway, but here with that five-furlong run-in it’s really a two-mile grind”, he said.

Ryan works for Charlie Appleby in his day job – “From the floor, not on top anymore”, but went on to say that the trip on that track would be the worry for New London, the favourite for the race. His stamina appeared to run out in much the way of Alleged all those 45 years ago as he finished third behind the Roger Varian-trained Eldar Eldarov.

Frankie got one thing right, Haskoy going past the post three places ahead of Emily Dickinson in second, but what he didn’t do correctly was to satisfy the stewards that there was nothing wrong with his riding. They found he had caused interference to fourth home Giavellotto, trained by Marco Botti and ridden by Neil Callan.

They demoted Haskoy to fourth, promoting Giavellotto to third and also giving New London a knock-on promotion to second. It’s quite a big deal in prizemoney terms, second and third both doubling up their original earnings while Haskoy, far from gaining a profit on the deal after the £50k supplementary fee, is now in deficit. No wonder Beckett, “under the interference rules”, is planning an appeal.

If the last few days have been a changing of the guard in terms of the Monarch, it was very much a similar situation in the race itself. The previous five winners had all either been sons or grandsons of Galileo. Yesterday he didn’t have a representative and the only second generation runners were sixth-placed 150-1 shot El Habeeb, by Al Rifai, and last home Lizzie Jean (100-1), by Nathaniel. He died last summer, so a maximum of two more crops of three-year-olds can represent him as Classic contenders.

The winner, third-placed over the line New London and fifth home Emily Dickinson were all by Dubawi, Galileo’s sparring partner for the past decade. Now, with a freer field for a few years at least, he can enjoy a King Charles III-like interregnum at the top of the stallion charts until the next King of the Sires comes along.

For Varian it was a second St Leger triumph, following Kingston Hill eight years ago, but a first for David Egan, the highly personable and talented son of weighing room legend and shrewd bloodstock dealer, John.

I had the good fortune to be representing Jonathan Barnett, one of the owners in Varian’s sprinter Dusky Lord, along with part-owner Jennie Allen at her home course. We stood in the paddock together with trainer and rider before the race. Dusky Lord had a near impossible draw but ran well. I was delighted for both trainer and rider, for whom Eldar Eldarov looks a stayer to follow.

Over in Ireland Kyprios kept up the pressure in the staying ranks, the four-year-old seeing off fellow older gentleman Hamish in the Irish St Leger. By then his Goodwood Cup victim Trueshan had failed to deliver odds of 9-2 laid on in the Doncaster Cup, his erratic steering in the last 100 yards viewed low down from right on the winning line as Hollie tried to straighten him for a final flourish. Coltrane, expertly ridden by one of this site’s ambassadors, David Probert, was a deserved beneficiary of what Alan King clearly believes is the memory of Trueshan’s hard race at Goodwood behind Kyprios and Stradivarius on faster than ideal ground.

It was gloom all round for the Trueshan team of owners. Their best-known member, Andrew Gemmell, had taken the 10.30 train from King’s Cross, travel time 90 minutes and arrived via a taxi five minutes before Trueshan’s race – scheduled off time 2.45.

All through what remained of the afternoon, Tony Hunt, Andrew’s “eyes” for the day monitored the denuded Sunday service which promised delays and cancellations, so I thought it appropriate on such a day to offer a lift to Central London.

We had a lovely three hours listening to the Test match, reminiscing about the Queen – yes, I did meet her and shared a few words when she visited the Daily Telegraph and talked about reading the racing page every day! – and learning the latest about Andrew’s great staying hurdler, Paisley Park. What a day!

- TS



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Pace Bias in Non-Handicap Hurdle Races

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With the evenings now sadly drawing in, many punters will soon begin to think about the upcoming National Hunt season, writes Dave Renham. So Matt and I felt it was the right time to revisit pace bias in National Hunt racing. In the past I have written several articles for Geegeez on the topic of pace and for this piece I am going to take an in depth look at non-handicap hurdle races.

I appreciate many of you reading this will have read some or all of my previous articles, but for new readers it is important to explain what pace in a race means and how we measure it. Pace in this context is connected with the running styles of the horses. When I look at pace bias my main focus is the initial pace in a race and the position horses take up early on.

geegeez.co.uk has an excellent pace analyser tool and the stats I am sharing with you in this article are based on that tool’s pace data. The data on Geegeez are split into four styles and accompanying points – Led (4), Prominent (3), Mid Division (2) and Held Up (1). The numbers in brackets are the pace scores assigned to each section.

For this article I have only looked at races with eight or more runners – this avoids falsely run races which often occur when there are small fields.

The first set of data contains the overall pace stats from all 8+ runner National Hunt non-handicaps in the UK from 1/1/09 to 31/7/21:

 

It is important to keep in mind that the number of runners in each pace group varies: there are far more runners in the prominent and hold up categories as you can see. 'Leaders' is the smallest group as usually you only get one early leader in this type of race, occasionally two when there is a contested early lead. Hence although raw strike rates have relevance, it is more important to look at Impact Values (IV) and the A/E index (Actual winners/Expected winners).

Leaders clearly have an edge as a whole, with prominent racers the next most successful. Therefore, as a general rule of thumb, in non-handicap hurdle races you want to be focusing on those horses that are the most likely to lead early (or at least race prominently and close to the front end).

When we have looked at draw biases on the flat we became aware that such biases can evolve and change over time. In terms of pace bias, though, I have always hoped (or assumed) that they are less likely to change much, if at all, over time. To check this theory out I decided to split the non-handicap data into two and compare 2009 – 2014 with 2015 onwards. The bar chart below compares the A/E values over these time frames:

 

Excellent correlation across all four pace categories so, because A/E is a measure of market performance, this gives increased confidence that the value in any pace biases is likely to replicated in the foreseeable future. Comparing the strike rates shows a similar level of consistency across the two time periods:

 

So we have a good starting point from which to start narrowing down the stats into different data sets to establish whether front running bias is stronger or weaker under more specific conditions. As the data seems consistent across the years I will analyse these areas over the whole time period (2009 to July 31st 2021).

 

Impact of Run Style by Race Distance, Non-Handicap Hurdles

I always feel distance is the best place to start when drilling down into pace data. A look first at the shorter distances.

2 miles 1 furlong or less

 

These figures are similar to the overall stats for all distances, so let us review by course. The chart below compares A/E values for all courses (min 50 races) – courses with A/E values of 1.00 or bigger are shown:

 

Bangor On Dee has the highest front-running A/E value at 1.48 and when we break the overall course stats down, we can see other metrics which point to that extremely strong front running bias:

 

Not only does the front running edge strengthen, it is clear that hold up horses struggle even more than the norm. For the record, if you had been able to predict the front runner(s) in each race at Bangor you would have made an SP profit to tune of 38 pence in the £. If only it was that easy!

The next chart shows the courses with the lowest A/E values for front runners over this trip:

 

Doncaster racecourse has the poorest figures for front runners and the overall stats for the course are as follows:

 

I think what this shows is that the course and distance stats are definitely worth drilling down on. The difference between Bangor and Doncaster at this distance range is very significant.

Before moving distances I would like to share some stats around performance of "the favourite" based on their running style:

 

Again, this shows clearly the importance of pace and running style. It still bemuses me how certain trainers continue to hold up their runners, when surely it is generally worth pushing them up with or close to the pace.

 

2 miles 2 furlongs to 2 miles 6 furlongs

It is always difficult to group National Hunt distances ‘perfectly’ when analysing large data sets, but for this article I wanted to split the full gamut of race distances into three parts and this seemed like a sensible middle distance grouping.

Here are the pace data for all courses for all non-handicap hurdle races over the 2 mile 2 to 2 mile 6 trip:

 

The figures are similar to the shorter distances though possibly the front running bias hass very slightly diminished. In terms of courses, amazingly Bangor on Dee is top again from a front running bias perspective – there is unquestionably a marked advantage to those horses that lead early at Bangor.

 

I thought for this interim distance group I would investigate some run style trainer data. I wanted to see which trainers had been the most successful when sending their runners out into the early lead in non-handicap hurdle races of 2m 2f to 2m 6f.

To that end, below are two graphs – firstly, trainer performance with front runners in terms of win strike rate; and secondly, looking at their respective A/E values.

 

 

As you might expect there are a high proportion of trainers that appears in both charts. Nicky Henderson tops both lists but this does not mean he sends a huge proportion of his runners to the front early; it shows, however, that when he does they fare extremely well. For the record here is Henderson's breakdown by running / pace style over this distance block:

 

His front runners clearly do best in terms of win strike rate, A/E value and IV. It is interesting though that only 11% - one in nine - of Henderson's horses actually take the early lead. But nearly half of them win!

It does make me wonder if trainers are really aware of pace bias... Below is his 'pace pie chart' in terms of percentage of runners that demonstrate a particular pace or running style.

 

44% of his runners raced off the pace early which is far too large a number in my opinion.

 

2 miles 7 furlong or more

The third and final grouping are the longer distance non-handicap hurdle races, from just shy of three miles upwards.

 

There are far fewer longer races as can be seen, but the same pattern emerges. Front runners perform best with prominent runners next best.

 

Trainers by Run Style (All distances)

I have already touched upon trainers but thought it might be interesting to create some trainer pace figures. To create the trainer pace figures I have simply added up the Geegeez pace points for a particular trainer and divided it by the number of runners. The higher the average the more prominent the trainer tends to race his charges. I have created trainer pace figures which cover all distances in non-handicap hurdles. Here are the trainers with the highest averages:

 

Rebecca Curtis tops the list and clearly favours positioning her runners nearer the front than the back. Her 'pace pie chart' below demonstrates this even more clearly:

 

As you can see 25% of Curtis's runners take the early lead, while another nigh on 50% race prominently and close to the pace. Ms Curtis is a trainer who understands the importance of forward run styles. It should come as no surprise therefore that you would have made a profit backing all of her runners ‘blind’ during this time frame. For the record, 53 of Curtis's runners were held up, and only 4 won (SR 7.55%). Compare this to 23% and 21.83% win strike rates for her early leaders and prominent racers.

Let us now review Alan King’s pace pie chart as a comparison to Curtis.

 

His pace average stands at 1.99 with a measly 2% of his runners sent into an early lead. Overall losses for King have been significant especially with runners that raced mid division or near the back early.

*

I do believe that pace in a race is something which must be factored in to your betting. Pace biases vary from race type to race type, distance to distance, course to course, etc. However, if you are prepared to do some digging that other punters are not, you will give yourself a significant edge over the crowd.

This article has hopefully offered a good chunk of information to digest, but in reality I have barely scratched the surface. If you really want to profit from run style/pace then the Geegeez tools are there for you to test your own ideas and crunch pace data to your heart’s content.

- DR



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