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Sky Bet Chase Trends

Staged at Doncaster racecourse the Skybet Chase (formerly known as the Great Yorkshire Chase) is a Listed Handicap run over 3m. The race can often throw up some Grand National clues, although no winner in the last 15 runnings has gone onto win the Aintree marathon.

In recent years, the Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Pipe stables have dominated the race with two wins a-piece since 2003, while in the last 15 runnings we’ve seen just two winning favourites – the 2020 Skybet Chase was won by the Nicky Henderson-trained Ok Corral at 9/1.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners (note, the 2010 and 2011 runnings were abandoned) and gives you the key stats to take into the 2021 renewal – this year being run on Saturday 30th January.

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Recent Skybet Chase Winners

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2020 – OK CORRAL (9/1)
2019 - GO CONQUER
2018 - WAKANDA (8/1)
2017 – ZIGA BOY (10/1)
2016 – ZIGA BOY (8/1)
2015 – IF IN DOUBT (4/1 fav)
2014 – RAINBOW HUNTER (25/1)
2013 – Meeting Abandoned
2012 – CALGARY BAY (12/1)
2009 – BIG FELLA THANKS (9/2)
2008 – AN ACCORDION (11/2 fav)
2007 – SIMON (7/1)
2006 – A GLASS IN THYNE (16/1)
2005 – COLOURFUL LIFE (9/1)
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (7/1)
2003 – BARRYSCOURT LAD (9/2)

Skybet Chase Betting Trends

14/15 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/15 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
12/15 – Officially rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/1

 

Other Stats:
4 of the last 15 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
5 of the last 15 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

 

 

 

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Racing Insights, 12th December 2020

Wow! The Cross-Country went spectacularly bad for us today, as none of my four in focus even finished in the first four home of a 10-runner field. Thankfully, writing a column like this gives me the opportunity to put things back on an even keel fairly quickly.

And that opportunity presents itself immediately on Saturday, where feature of the day is the Trainer/Jockey combo report and our free races are...

  • 12.55 Doncaster
  • 1.50 Cheltenham
  • 2.05 Doncaster
  • 2.55 Newcastle
  • 3.30 Newcastle
  • 5.00 Newcastle

And I'm going to leave the full race profiling for today and focus on the TJ Combo report, where as you'll see I set fairly demanding criteria...

1. HANDICAPS OVER THE LAST 12 MONTHS

AND 2. 5-YEAR COURSE HANDICAP FORM

Now I'm going to see if I think any of them are worth backing, starting with Arqalina in the 1.22 Hereford...

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Trainer Venetia Williams is 7 from 21 (33.3% SR) in chases here at Hereford over the last three years including 5 from 16 on soft ground or "worse", 3 from 7 over course and distance and 1 from 1 with jockey Robert Dunne and here they team up with Arqalina, an 8 yr old mare who will carry bottom weight 13 days after being comprehensively beaten at Ffos Los last time out.

She may well have been third home of ten starters, but she was some thirty lengths off the pace, despite being sent off 3/1 favourite. She's up three classes today and she'll be wearing cheekpieces for the first time (yard is 2 from 7 with first time cheekpieces this year). She's up in trip to a furlong further than she's ever ran before, she's new to this jockey, 0 from 3 in December and 0 from 5 going left handed.

As per Instant Expert, she has won on soft ground, where she has a win and a place from three efforts over fences and she has won over 3 miles, albeit in a Class 5 hurdle contest. The pace tab suggests you either want to lead or be up with the pace to win such a contest, but she generally races in mid-division and such horses are 0 from 14 in similar races and have grabbed just 5 of the 41 places.

I have Arqalina as a 12/1 shot, the market says 10's, she'll probably finish in mid-field and she's not a betting proposition for me today.

Should that race be a disappointment for the Williams/Dunne partnership, as I expect it will, they get to have another 70 minutes later in the 2.32 Hereford...

The yard is 0 from 6 over hurdles here at Hereford this year, but 2020 has been a strange one in many respects, because the Williams' hurdlers were 5 from 20 (25% SR) here during 2016-19. Of those 20, there were 4 winners from 11 on soft ground.

Chambard was last seen failing to finish a 2m4f chase on his return from an 8 month absence and now reverts back to hurdling some 21 months and 5 races since last tackling the smaller obstacles, as he looks to return to the consistent run of form he had from December 2018 to December 2019, when finishing 212223 over hurdles prior to results of 222 over fences.

Sadly he was then fifth of five beaten by 28 lengths in late February of this year, ahead of being pulled up on that return to action six weeks ago. In his defence, he will have needed the run, he does look better over hurdles and his sole win was on good to soft ground. He's new to today's jockey, though and he has tended to fare better over shorter trips.

Prominent racers have won 7 of 11 similar contests with hold-up horses faring worst of all, which doesn't augur well for this boy's chances either.

Like stablemate Arqalina, I don't see Chambard troubling the better runners here and mid-division is probably as good as he'll get.

Which means our search for a meaningful bet now swings North to Town Moor, Doncaster and Charlie Longsdon's 9 yr old chaser, Western Miller, who goes in the 12.20 Doncaster...

Western Miller fell at the second fence last time out so we've no idea what form he was in, but he was second of thirteen at 66/1 behind Rouge Vif at Cheltenham in a Class 2 contest and only really beaten on the run-in by his opponent rated some 17lbs better than him. The third placed horse has finished third again in another Class 2 contest, which would seem to bolster our chances of at least another placed finish now that he drops down in class off the same mark.

Trainer Charlie Longsdon's handicap chasers are 6 from 22 (27.3% SR) here at Doncaster since the start of 2016 when sent off at odds of 7/2 and bigger in Class 2 to 4 contests, including 3 from 5 for jockey Paul O'Brien, 3 from 5 at Class 3 and 1 from 1 over course and distance : achieved when Western Miller won here in January at 16/1 when Paul rode him to success at Class 2.

The horse has won 8 of 37 starts (21.6% SR) over obstacles so far, making the frame on 15 occasions in total and of his 37 outings, he is..

  • 6/32 when not the fav & 6/25 going left handed
  • 5/25 over fences & 5/21 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 4/16 since the start of 2019 and 4/13 in cheekpieces
  • 3/11 under Paul O'Brien & 3/11 on good to soft ground
  • 1/1 here at Doncaster & 1/1 over course and distance

Much of that is backed up on Instant Expert, whilst the pace tab suggests that providing he doesn't go off too quickly, he should be in with a good chance again here.

I can definitely see Western Miller going well and making the frame at least.

Summary

At Hereford, I expect Venetia Williams to draw a blank withe the two runners I've looked at, but all is not lost. She has another runner in the 1.22 Hereford in the shape of the 7yr old mare Kapga de Lily, a 2/1 shot who I'd expect will be the one to beat there with 6/1 Ballybough Nora likely to be next best.

It could be a different story at Doncaster for Western Miller, who I think should make the frame at worst. Whether you back him E/W at 13/2 is your own call, I can't go E/W at that price, but I might well have a couple of quid on the nose. For what it's worth, I also think Duke of Navan might be worth a second look at 7/1 in that contest.

Whatever you decide, I wish you the best of luck and I hope you have a good weekend. Monday's piece will go "Live" a little later than usual, as I've got something on at teatime elsewhere.

 

 

Stat of the Day, 26th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

7.40 Bath : Princess Way @ 6/1 BOG 9th at 9/1 (Keen led after 2f, clear with one other over 5f out, ridden and headed over 2f out, weakened over 1f out) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

12.15 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 5f on Good to Firm ground worth £4,690 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding ran just once as a two year old and once as a three year old for two different trainers to little effect. He never ran last year and moved yards to David Brown in late 2019, sparking him into life.

He returned to the track in early January to make a yard debut some 417 days after his last run and his record this year now stands at 114211 (117 days between the last two runs whilst he was gelded) including the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 from 5 in handicaps
  • 3 from 5 on a straight track
  • 3 from 4 over 5 furlongs
  • 3 from 4 in a straight 5f handicap
  • 1 from 2 at Class 4 (although won at Class 3 LTO)
  • 1 from 1 on the Flat (LTO)
  • 1 from 1 on Good to Firm (also LTO)
  • and 1 from 1 under today's jockey Cam Hardie (yes, also LTO)

He was last seen just four days ago when making all on good to firm up at Ayr in a Class 3, 5f handicap and with a good draw here today, similar tactics could well be the key, as shown on the Geegeez Pace/Draw heat map.

As well as his form this year since a switch of yard, that last run at Ayr piqued my interest, as trainer David Brown is 7 from 22 (31.8% SR) for 18.26pts (+83% ROI) with horses turned back out within 10 days of their last run since the start of 2019. I won't break those 22 down, as it will dilute the dataset too much.

However, we can look at the the other angle that popped up on my notes last night and that is David Brown + LTO winners + 2016-20 = 14/64 (21.9% SR) for 30.07pts (+47% ROI), including of note today...

  • 14/57 (24.6%) for 37.07pts (+65%) in handicaps
  • 12/48 (25%) for 25.83pts (+53.8%) with males
  • 10/27 (37%) for 10.06pts (+37.2%) at odds shorter than 5/1
  • 8/29 (27.6%) for 3.62pts (+115.9%) in races worth £4k-£10k
  • 7/31 (22.6%) for 28.11pts (+90.7%) on the Flat
  • 7/20 (35%) for 49.1pts (+245.5%) with 4-7 yr olds
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 9.79pts (+61.2%) over 5 furlongs
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.01pts (+6.3%) within 10 days of their last run
  • and 3/7 (42.9%) for 21.65pts (+309.3%) on good to firm ground...

...from which, male handicappers sent off shorter than 5/1 are 9 from 20 (45% SR) for 11.12pts (+55.6% ROI)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on National Anthem @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.05am Friday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 12.15 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 12th March 2020

Wednesday's pick was...

1.55 Lingfield : Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along and headway 2f out, ridden to chase winner when edged left inside final furlong, no extra and lost two places close home

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 3m84yds on good ground worth £3,769 to the winner...

Why?...

This 6 yr old gelding comes here on a hat-trick after winning over 2m4f at Punchestown on his last run for Sean Thomas Doyle, ahead of scoring in a Class 4, 3 mile contest on his yard debut for Archie Watson almost 4 weeks ago at Fakenham under today's jockey Brodie Hampson.

This horse now has 2 wins and a place from 3 efforts in handicap hurdle races, including a win and a place at 3 miles.

His trainer, Archie Watson, is probably best known for his exploits on level ground, but his small string of hurdlers are 5 from 11 (45.5% SR) for 16.56pts (+150.6% ROI) over trips of 2m4f to 3m1f, all of which were males ridden by Brodie Hampson and also include of note here...

  • 5/9 (55.6%) for 18.56pts (+206.3%) with 6 yr olds
  • 5/8 (62.5%) for 19.56pts (+244.5%) finished in the first three home LTO
  • 5/6 (83.3%) for 21.56pts (+359.3%) at 70-170 miles from home
  • 4/10 (40%) for 15.33pts (+153.3%) in handicaps
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 6.22pts (+88.9%) at Evens to 4/1
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 17.59pts (+293.2%) at Class 4
  • 3/5 (60%) for 17.7pts (+354%) during February to April
  • 3/5 (60%) for 3.94pts (+78.8%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • and 2/5 (40%) for 11.08pts (+221.6%) with LTO winners...

...whilst 6 yr olds travelling 70-170 miles to run in Class 4 handicaps after a top 3 finish LTO are 3 from 3, including 2 LTO winners, 2 at Evs to 4/1 and 2 in Feb-April...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Premier D'Troice @ 11/4 BOG as was available from BetVictor, Betway, SkyBet & Marathon* at 8.05am Thursday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!