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Placepot Pointers – Sunday 25th March

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DONCASTER – MARCH 25

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £160.00 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 54.0% units went through – 28/1, 10/1, 7/2* & 8/1

Race 2: 59.9% of the remaining units when through – 15/8*, 25/1 & 11/4

Race 3: 75.5% of the remaining units went through – 4/7*, 9/2 & 25/1

Race 4: 19.9% of the remaining units went through – 33/1, 13/2**, 16/1 & 20/1 (13/2**)

Race 5: 34.8% of the remaining units went through – 15/8* & 50/1

Race 6: 27.0% of the units secured the dividend – 20/1, 14/1, 8/1 & 9/1 (9/2)

 

Sunday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (2.25): 8 (Right Action), 11 (Know Your Limit), 9 (Colonel Frank) & 7 (Lost At Sea)

Leg 2 (3.00): 2 (First Contact) & 12 (Stealth)

Leg 3 (3.35): 7 (Explain), 9 (Dark Defender), 11 (Private Matter) & 8 (Mobsta)

Leg 4 (4.10): 5 (Royal Line) & 1 (Great Hall)

Leg 5 (4.45): 8 (Archippos), 10 (Music Seeker) & 3 (Tuff Rock)

Leg 6 (5.20): 3 (Broderie) & 7 (Dr Richard Kimble)

Suggested stake: 384 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Sunday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.25: Richard Fahey has saddled five of the last 13 winners of this opening event (was also responsible for the runner up last year at 10/1) and the quintet were all four-year-olds which makes for interesting reading.  Richard has declared four horses on this occasion, with his lone four-year-old raider RIGHT ACTION taken to lead his stablemates home, as was the case twelve months ago. Four-year-olds have won five of the last six contests for good measure, whereby my short listed trio to accompany Right Action comprises of KNOW YOUR LIMIT, COLONEL FRANK and LOST AT SEA.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 15 favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include two winners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/5—Right Touch (good to soft)

1/5—Twin Appeal (good to soft)

1/9—Boots And Spurs (good)

1/2—Lost At Sea (good to soft)

1/13—Khelman (heavy)

2/2—Act Echo (good to firm & good to soft)

 

3.00: We can only suppose that PREVENT will turn out to be an above average type, especially in the excellent care of Ralph Beckett and his team.  As for now, I expect the experience already gained by the likes of STEALTH and (particularly) FIRST CONTACT might prove too much for the Poet’s Voice gelding at the first time of asking.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

3.35: Four and five-year-olds have won 14 of the last 17 renewals between them, including twelve of the last thirteen contests. Richard Fahey has secured three of the last eight renewals, whilst the last ten winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-3.  Putting the stats into the deep far fryer produces names such as EXPLAIN, DARK DEFENDER and PRIVATE MATTER.  MOBSTA is a regular at this opening weekend of the season and Mick Channon’s raider should be there or thereabouts at the business end of the contest.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last thirteen winners have scored at 66/1--40/1--33/1—33/1--16/1--16/1--14/1--14/1, whilst four of the other six gold medallists were returned at 25/1--12/1--7/1--7/1 during the study period. Eleven of the twenty favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winners.

Effect of the draw (latest renewal shown first):

8-15-13-14 (22 ran –good)

21-1-5-18 (20 ran-soft)

3-16-6-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

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1-7-2-16 (18 ran-soft)

6-4-8-10 (18 ran-soft)

15-11-4-3 (22 ran-good)

4-17-8-14 (20 ran-good)

2-16-8-13 (18 ran-good to soft)

2-10-22-21 (20 ran-good to firm)

1-6-4-3 (17 ran-soft)

15-11-6 (15 ran-good)

3-7-2-5 (22 ran-good)

9-10-22-14 (22 ran-good)

22-12-20-15 (21 ran-good to soft)

Record of course winners in the fourth race:

1/2—Justanotherbottle (good to soft)

2/4—Naadirr (2 x good)

1/4—Captain Colby (good)

2/7—Mobsta (2 x soft)

 

4.10: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals and vintage representatives are 6/4 against extending their good recent run before the form book is consulted. John Gosden has declared vintage representative ROYAL LINE who might have GREAT HALL to beat here, with Mick Quinn’s eight-year-old always seemingly that bit better with some juice in the ground.

Favourite factor: Five of the last ten favourites have prevailed, though only two of the other nine market leaders (in total) additionally secured toteplacepot positions via ten renewals during the last fourteen years.

 

4.45: Last year’s winner ARCHIPPOS returns to defend his crown and with Phil Kirby’s team in fine form just now (five of his last thirteen runners have won), the five-year-old is the first name on the team sheet.  Joining him there are MUSIC SEEKER and TUFF ROCK, especially as four-year-olds have won four of the last six renewals of this event.  MUSIC SEEKER won at the first time of asking last year on soft ground, whereby Declan Carroll’s representative could be the value for money call in the contest.

Favourite factor: Two of the last eight favourites have secured toteplacepot positions to date, statistics which include one (4/1**) winner.

Record of the two course winners in the field:

1/3—Archippos (good)

1/3—Mutarakez (good to soft)

 

5.20: Mark Johnston has won two of the last three renewals in which his stable was represented whereby the chance of DR RICHARD KIMBLE is greatly respected.  That said, Mark’s Lawman gelding might need every pound of the ten he receives from BRODERIE with Charlie Appleby sending out winners for fun of late.  Talking of in-form trainers, Phil Kirby has to be mentioned in dispatches whereby Rayna’s World could outrun his odds.

Favourite factor:  Market leaders have won two of the seven renewals to date, with five gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Three of the seven favourites have secured Placepot positions, though four renewals have slipped by since a market leader scored.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

ASCOT ON SUNDAY – IF YOU’RE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING: 

Last year’s dividend: 132.00 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 4 unplaced)

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 35.9% units went through – 3/1*, 33/1 & 13/2

Race 2: 42.1% of the remaining units when through – 9/1, 7/2 & 7/2 (3/1)

Race 3: 35.6% of the remaining units went through – 15/8 (win only – 5/4*)

Race 4: 71.0% of the remaining units went through – 11/4 & 2/1*

Race 5: 32.6% of the remaining units went through – 12/1, 5/1 & 10/1 (9/2)

Race 6: 44.3% of the units secured the dividend – 11/1, 7/2** & 8/1 (7/2**)

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 24th March

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DONCASTER – MARCH 24

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £2,231.20 (6 favourites – No winners – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

 

Race 1: 16.6% units went through – 7/1, 11/1 & 33/1 (9/2)

Race 2: 19.6% of the remaining units when through – 8/1, 12/1, 25/1 & 20/1 (9/2)

Race 3: 41.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1, 10/3 & 10/1 (3/1)

Race 4: 33.3% of the remaining units went through – 20/1, 7/2*, 7/1 & 16/1

Race 5: 26.3% of the remaining units went through – 4/1, 13/2 & 50/1 (2/1)

Race 6: 27.6% of the units secured the dividend – 6/1, 9/2 & 14/1 (11/4)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 5 (Mjjack), 6 (Mr Lupton) & 4 (Lancelot Du Lac)

Leg 2 (2.25): 6 (Kynren), 8 (What’s The Story) & 14 (Titus)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Another Touch) & 6 (Zabeel Prince)

Leg 4 (3.35): 17 (Fire Brigade), 14 (Addeybb), 13 (Grey Britain) & 10 (Not So Sleepy)

Leg 5 (4.10): 9 (Langholm), 10 (Lihou) & 4 (Carey Street)

Leg 6 (4.45): 9 (Proschema) & 2 (Argentello)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Scroll down for Doncaster stats and Newbury Placepot information

 

1.50: The last twelve winners have carried weights of 9-2 or more, whilst only two favourites have prevailed via the last 14 contests.  Unfortunately, only the bottom weight is eliminated from my enquiries via the relevant weight stats this time around though in MJJACK, we have a half decent chance of securing a Placepot position at the very least in the opening race of the season.  There is money this morning for Karl Burke’s raider who looks an interesting each way bet for starters on a busy day.  Others of interest include course winner MR LUPTON and LANCELOT DU LAC who doesn’t mind some juice in the ground, though the general 3/1 quote would frighten yours truly away from a win perspective.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst nine of the last twenty two market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

4-12-1 (13 ran-good to soft)

14-12-2 (13 ran-soft)

10-11-5 (10 ran-good)

6-8-5 (9 ran-soft)

9-1-4 (8 ran-soft)

11-10-12 (14 ran-good)

5-7-14 (14 ran-good)

14-10-13 (13 ran-soft)

6-2-4 (13 ran-good to firm)

16-9-17 (15 ran-good to soft)

2-7-10 (11 ran-good)

16-17-12 (17 ran--good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Mjjack (heavy)

1/2—Mr Lupton (good)

1/4—Perfect Pasture (good to soft)

 

2.25: Four-year-olds have won 16 renewals during the last 20 years (including 13 of the last 16), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-1.  Eleven vintage representatives have been declared compared to just six twelve months ago which makes this renewal a little tougher to assess.  I have opted for KYNREN, WHAT’S THE STORY and TITUS.  The reserve nomination is awarded to ORIGINAL CHOICE.

Favourite factor: The last 16 favourites that failed to win their respective events also missed out on Placepot positions.  Just one clear market leader and one joint favourite have scored during the last 14 years.

Draw details for the last twelve renewals:

6-3-1-9 (21 ran-good to soft)

4-19-20-18 (21 ran-soft)

8-1-18-21 (21 ran-good)

15-16-14-18 (22 ran-soft)

16-8-20-13 (18 ran-soft)

2-7-8-12 (22 ran-good)

16-19-22-10 (22-good)

19-10-12-18 (19 ran-soft)

9-11-2-20 (21 ran-good to soft)

17-1-2-21 (21 ran-good to soft)

12-8-7-20 (22 ran-good)

19-20-21-15 (24-good)

Doncaster record of course winners in the second race:

1/4—Lord Of The Rock (soft)

1/1—What’s The Stoory (soft)

 

3.00: ANOTHER TOUCH is the each way call in the contest, albeit ZABEEL PRINCE should take the beating on this ground which has produced some of his best form.  Richard Hannon secured a treble on the corresponding card last year and TABARRAK appears to be his best chance of a winner today.  That said, ground conditions are a worry and in ANOTHER TOUCH, we have a young horse which offers decent value for money at 11/1 (in places) this morning.

Favourite factor: The terms and conditions of this Doncaster Mile event have changed around in recent years whereby the official stance now is that there are just five renewals to take into consideration with three of the six market leaders having secured Placepot positions (two winners).

 

3.35: Four-year-olds have claimed 23 of the last 60 available Placepot positions, statistics which include eight of the last fifteen winners, whilst the last 13 winners have carried 9-4 or less.  Putting all those stats and facts in the deep fat fryer produces a short list of FIERE BRIGADE, ADDEYBB, GREY BRITAIN and NOT SO SLEEPY.  I had to include the latter named raider who is a 66/1 chance in some books this morning which appears to be a more than generous quote given his 2/4 record on the prevailing ground. That said as a winner (similarly) of two of his four races on soft going, FIRE BRIGADE is a worthy favourite from my viewpoint, though value for money is only conspicuous by its absence.

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Favourite factor: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won the Lincoln Handicap in the last 19 years which is a thoroughly decent return in such a competitive event, though just three of the other 15 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

Effect of the draw during the last fourteen years:

20-2-21-4 (22 ran-good to soft)

22-2-18-21 (22 ran-soft)

15-6-19-12 (22 ran-good)

3-22-20-18 (17 ran-soft)

3-1-19-10 (22 ran-soft)

12-21-9-2 (22 ran-good)

16-19-6-15 (21 ran-good)

1-5-10-14 (21 ran-soft)

9-3-2-20 (20 ran-good to firm)

12-3-16-5 (21 ran-good to soft)

13-21-2-1 (22 ran-good)

23-16-12-24 (24 ran-good)

6-7-1-12 (24 ran-good)

7-6-13-12 (23 ran-good to soft)

Doncaster record of course winners in the Lincoln Handicap:

2/3—Gabrial (2 x good)

1/1—Stamp Hill (good to soft)

2/6—Withernsea (soft & heavy)

1/2—Bravery (good to soft)

 

4.10: LIHOU and CAREY STREET are alternative each way types to consider though at the time of writing, LANGHOLM is a warm favourite to put in mildly given that this is the infamous ‘Brocklesby’ contest which has sent many an investor to an early grave!  Wasntexpectingthat is the other juvenile to consider according to the gospel of yours truly.

Favourite factor: Just nine of the 27 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions during the last 19 years (three winners).

Draw details for the last fourteen renewals:

2-8-5 (11 ran-good to soft)

10-8-6 (11 ran-good to soft)

3-8-4 (10 ran-soft)

2-6-4 (9 ran-good)

2-6-8 (17 ran-soft)

13-4-15 (12 ran-soft)

10-1-9 (12 ran-good)

5-2-9 (12 ran-good)

10-2-16 (14 ran-soft)

14-11-21 (19 ran-good to firm)

19-14-13 (19 ran-good to soft)

10-2-18 (18 ran-good)

5-12-4 (15 ran-good)

16-13-12 (18 ran-good)

15-5-14 (17 ran-soft)

 

4.40: Tom Dacombe’s Declaration Of War colt PROSCHEMA ran well under these conditions on his second start as a juvenile and in terms of ‘laying off’ from a Placepot perspective, Richard Kingscote’s mount is the horse to play in the finale of our favourite wager.  That said, ARGENTELLO could be anything out of the Gosden yard if you are ‘chasing money’ (never recommended) towards the end of the meeting.

Favourite factor: Horses returned between 2/1* and 5/1 have won six of the last ten renewals, whilst runners sent off at 14/1 or more have claimed the other four contests.  It seems that each way bets between 11/2 and 12/1 in recent years have gone up in any amount of smoke, certainly from a win perspective at least.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Specific stat for Doncaster on Saturday:

Richard Hannon secured a 703/1 treble at the corresponding (Lincoln Handicap) meeting last year – 3 runners today: Tabarrak (3.00), Moneyoryourlife (5.20) & Boycie (5.50)

 

NEWBURY ON SATURDAY – IF YOU ARE PLAYING THE PLACEPOT AT THE MEETING:

Last year’s dividend £200.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 19.9% units went through – 7/1, 9/1 & 10/1 (4/1)

Race 2: 40.2% of the remaining units when through – 9/2*, 7/1 & 8/1

Race 3: 43.7% of the remaining units went through – 7/1**, 7/1**, 25/1 & 9/1

Race 4: 50.2% of the remaining units went through – 9/1, 14/1 & 2/1*

Race 5: 93.3% of the remaining units went through – 8/11* & 9/4

Race 6: 22.2% of the units secured the dividend – 11/2, 12/1 & 8/1 (9/2)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 21st February

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LUDLOW – FEBRUARY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £845.80 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed 3 unplaced

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Ludlow: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Awake At Midnight), 16 (Pearl Of The West) & 6 (Lord Napier)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Town Parks), 2 (Coastal Tiep), 3 (Rayvin Black) & 4 (Seymour Star)

Leg 3 (3.00): 2 (Otter Moon) & 3 (Royal Irish Hussar)

Leg 4 (3.30): 5 (Horatio Hornblower) & 3 (Captain Buck’s)

Leg 5 (4.05): 7 (Spider’s Bite) & 8 (The Devils Drop)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Master Of Finance), 2 (Vocaliser) & 7 (Road To Rome)

Suggested stake: 288 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.50: Five and six-year-olds have generally dominated this opening event and with the combined represented vintage being 1/3 to extend the good run between them before form in taken into consideration, the edge should be enhanced this time around.  AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT and LORD NAPIER head my overnight ratings.  For the record, six-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer though that said, money is piling up for PEARL OF THE WEST in the (realistic) positive queue on the exchanges at the time of writing.  Perhaps that scenario is unfolding with the uncertainty of the Philip Hobbs runners just now regarding AWAKE AT MIDNIGHT.  Philip is not running many horses just now which is understandable given his 1/23 ratio this month though on the flip side, market leaders have a fabulous record in this event if Richard Johnson’s mount can cling on to favouritism.

Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine favourites have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include six (11/4, 7/4, 11/8, 6/5, 5/6 & 4/6) winners.

 

2.25: This new race comes under the ‘find me at the bar’ heading because as a ‘win only’ contest with little to choose between the quartet at first glance, the move is to include all four runners, hoping that the horse with the least Placepot units prevails.  For the record, Kerry Lee’s hat trick seeker Town Parks would be the call if I was forced to make a nomination.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Ludlow card.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Town Parks (soft)

1/1—Rayvin Black (good)

2/4—Seymour Star (2 x soft)

 

3.00: Five of the last six winners have carried 11-3 or more to victory but with jockey claims forcing a few runners under the ‘superior burden barrier’, ROYAL IRISH HUSSAR makes some appeal which might not have been the case if FIXED RATE had not been ridden by a ten pound ‘conditional’ on this occasion.  OTTER MOON just manages to keep in the right half of the handicap and the Tom George raider represents the main threat to Nicky’s 9/1 chance at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Five of the ten market leaders have finished in the frame thus far (exact science), statistics which include one (6/4) winner.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/3—Excellent Team (good to firm)

 

3.30: It will be interest to see If Ghoohar is supported at a top price of 11/1 later this morning as there is plenty of speculative money in the positive queue on the exchanges this morning in and around ‘15’ which makes for interesting reading regarding Henry Daly’s raider, especially with the trainer having his horses in blinding form just now.  That said, HORATIO HORNBLOWER and CAPTAIN BUCK’S are more logical choices, especially if you are looking to have a bet from a win perspective whilst organising your Placepot wager.

Favourite factor: This is another new race on the Ludlow programme.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event:

1/1—Kap Jazz (soft)

 

4.05: Six-year-olds have won four of the last eight renewals and course winner SPIDERS BITE makes plenty of appeal here for Henry Daly and his in form team. Richard Johnson will be keen to ride another winner given that the champion jockey has ‘only’ ridden one of his last eleven mounts to winning effect, another example of how much ‘Dickie’ has also suffered with the Philip Hobbs runners generally running below par this month as stated in the analysis in the opening contest.  THE DEVILS DROP deserves the favourite tag here however, and Alan King’s representative will pose a real threat to the marginal selection if producing his best form this afternoon. CEAREAL KILLER also enters the mix, albeit as definite third choice.

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Favourite factor: Seven of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include four (13/8-11/10-5/6-4/6) winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/5—Spiders Bite (good)

 

4.40: There has to be a chance that the official assessor has caught up with Lake field by now and I am offering the speculative trio of MASTER OF FINANCE, VOCALISER and ROAD TO ROME against the projected favourite in our finale.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 9/4 market leader trailed in last of the five finishers behind horses which filled the ‘short field’ frame at odds of 7/2 & 8/1.  New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from each way and Placepot perspectives.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Ludlow card on Wednesday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) & then their five year ratios + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

5 runners—Robin Dickin (1/78 – loss of 3 points) – 3/57 – loss of 18

5—Venetia Williams (0/13) – 12/129 – loss of 75

3—Kim Bailey (8/24 +12) – 18/101 +3

3—Paul Nicholls (2/7 +2) – 7/33 – loss of 13

2—Henry Daly (4/19 – loss of 2) – 21/107 – loss of 19

2—Claire Dyson (First runners at Ludlow this season) – 0/11

2—Steve Flook (0/2) – 2/35 – loss of 2

2—Nicky Henderson (4/19 –loss of 2) – 29/99 – loss of 17

2—Kerry Lee (2/6 +1) – 8/34 – slight loss

2—Donald McCain (0/6) – 3/65 – loss of 38

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 0/8

2—Alistair Ralph (1/8 – loss of 2) – 3/19 +18

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/7) – 5/39 – loss of 16

2—Dan Skelton (4/21 – loss of 2) – 22/99 – loss of 12

2—Pam Sly (1/1 +3) – 3/7 +10

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £4.90 – 6 favourites – 6 favourites – 3 winners & 3 placed

Newcastle: £55.20 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 2 unplaced

Kempton: £1,035.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 8th February

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HUNTINGDON – FEBRUARY 8 

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £10.90 (6 favourites – 4 winners + 2 placed)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Huntingdon: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 6 (Marmont), 7 (Kaddys Dream) & 3 (Now Listen Here)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Abbreviate), 3 (Nobuttaboy) & 5 (Free Range)

Leg 3 (2.15): 5 (Vinndication) & 4 (Theclockisticking)

Leg 4 (2.50): 5 (Wild Blue Yonder) & 6 (Zipple Back)

Leg 5 (3.20): 7 (Minella For Me), 2 (Bally GIlbert) & 3 (Glenforde)

Leg 6 (3.55): 1 (Hoke Colburn), 4 (Braw Angus) & 6 (Boss Mans Ladder)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: At 7/2 and 8/1 in a place or two at the time of writing, MARMONT and NOW LISTEN HERE are a couple of potential movers (respectively) in the markets this morning, though not enough to get involved with aside from our favourite wager.  There is also quite a bit of realistic money in the positive queue on the exchanges for KADDYS DREAM from Robin Dickin’s in form yard, the trainer having saddled six of his last eleven runners to winning effect.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Huntingdon with which to open proceedings

 

1.45: Seven-year-olds have secured five of the last six renewals of this contest, with ABBREVIATE and NOBUTTABOY in place to extend the advantage still further between them if they are up to the task.  FREE RANGE appears to be the potential joker in the pack to deny the relevant vintage representatives this time around.

Favourite factor: Six of the eleven market leaders have claimed Placepot positions during the last twelve years.  Four favourites won at 7/2-5/2-9/4- 13/8 via nine renewals during the period.

 

2.15: Five and six-year-olds have shared ten of the last eleven contests (six-year-olds lead 6-4), though I have only left the stat in for those of you that keep records, as all six contenders represent the two vintages this time around.  This is an interesting puzzle to solve despite the lack of numbers, with VINNDICATION and THECLOCKISTICKING marginally preferred to their four rivals. Even the outsider (Dell Oro) is being backed on the exchanges at the time of writing which adds mystery to the potential drama in the making.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won four renewals during the last twelve years, only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the ‘Sidney Banks’:

1/1—Equus Secretus (good)

1/1—Theclockisticking (good)

 

2.50: Eight of the last nine winners in total carried a minimum burden of 10-12 which eliminates seven of the nine strong field, if you take jockey claims into account.  RED INDIAN and DELL A’RCA are left but even then, Ben Pauling’s first named raider has (seemingly) a preferred option at Towcester this afternoon.  It all makes a messy affair and no mistake, whereby a chance is taken that WILD BLUE YONDER can make up for lost time having has just two races in the thick end of four years.  If the ‘bounce factor’ has not kicked in since an encouraging effort at Newbury in December, Alan King’s raider can at least gain a Placepot position en route to better things in the spring.  With Red Indian and probably Brillaire Momento being re-routed to Towcester, we’re left with ZIPPLE BACK and (arguably) DELL’ ARCA to consider as the main dangers.

Favourite factor: Three (11/10, 15/8 & 2/1) favourites have won during the study period, though five of the last eight market leaders have failed to secure toteplacepot positions.

 

3.20: Eight-year-olds have won three of the last seven contests (and four of the last ten), with MINELLA FOR ME being the lone vintage representative on this occasion.  Tom George is another trainer who has his team in decent order whereby the eight-year-old is the first name on the team sheet, followed by BALLY GILBERT and GLENFORDE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the eleven market leaders finished in the frame, statistics which include three winners.

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Record of the course winner in the fifth race on the card:

1/3—Ratify (soft)

 

3.55: Six of the last nine winners have carried a minimum weight of 11-5 and the trio that catch the eye are HOKE COLBURN, BRAW ANGUS and BOSS MANS LADDER, the three horses being listed in order of preference. The overnight reserve nomination is offered to Amberjam who would have been included in the Placepot mix but for the claimer in the saddle which has enabled Lucy Wadham’s raider to slip into the ‘inferior’ sector of the handicap.
Favourite factor: Six of the last thirteen market leaders have secured Placepot positions, statistics which include five successful market leaders, two of which were returned as joint favourites.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Braw Angus (soft)

1/1—Amberjam (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Huntingdon card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season (in brackets) followed by the last five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

5 runners—Kim Bailey (2/8 – loss of 3 points) – 19/83 +40 points

5—Ben Pauling (2/8 – loss of 3) – 10/42 +85

3—Warren Greatrex (0/4) – 6/38 loss of 19

3—Alan King (1/15 – loss of 12) – 22/107 – loss of 28

3—Gary Moore (2/17 – loss of 2) – 16/97 +8

2—Robin Dickin (0/4) – 1/12 +7

2—Stuart Edmunds (2/6 +4) – 4/16 +2

2—John Groucott (First runners this season at the track) – 0/1

2—Harry Fry (0/2) – 4/16 – loss of 2 points

2—Donald McCain (0/4) – 2/28 – loss of 15

2—Dan Skelton (2/19 – loss of 9

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

61 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £58.20 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £49.00 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Newcastle: £20.20 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 27th January

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CHELTENHAM – JANUARY 27

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £33.60 (7 favourites: 2 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.40): 6 (Apple’s Shakira) & 3 (Erick Le Rouge)

Leg 2 (1.15): 2 (Ballyandy), 3 (Full Irish) & 1 (Sizing Tennessee)

Leg 3 (1.50): 3 (O O Seven), 9 (Coo Star Siviola) & 1 (Frodon)

Leg 4 (2.25): 6 (American), 1 (Bristol De Mai) & 8 (The Last Samurai)

Leg 5 (3.00): 8 (Pacific De Baune) & 9 (Santini)

Leg 6 (3.35): 6 (Finian’s Oscar), 3 (Wholestone) & 2 (Beer Goggles)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.40:  I was in the Gold Cup restaurant at Cheltenham at this meeting eight years ago and you could have heard the proverbial pin drop when the 100/1 winner Baccalaureate scooted clear up the run-in.  That said, seven of the last eleven renewals have been won by favourites of one description or another and with APPLE’S SHIKARI having been declared (from two options) by Nicky Henderson, the recent trend looks set to continue.  ERICK LE ROUGE offers an alternative forecast/each way play if you are betting with the bookmaker’s money after a successful day on Friday.
Favourite factor: Only four of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame, though six of the last 15 winners have scored at 100/1--50/1--25/1—25/1--11/1--11/2.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

2/2—Apple’s Shikari (2 x soft)


1.15: Two of the last 13 winners of this event went on to win the discarded Cathcart Chase at the Cheltenham Festival, whilst the 2005 winner (Lacdoudal) finished second in the inaugural running of the ‘Jewson’.  The winner eight years ago was Ping Pong Sivola who went on to finish second best to stable companion Something Wells in the ‘Freddie Williams’ whilst the 2009 winner (Hey Big Spender) was still going really well in the ‘Jewson‘ when exiting the contest.  The 2012 winner Bless The Wings ran tenth in Hunt Ball’s contest, before the 2013 gold medallist Vino Griego ran second in the Byrne Group Plate at the Festival at odds of 11/1.   The 2014 winner was made 7/2 favourite for the 'Kim Muir' but finished down the field.  The next winner (Generous Ransom) was placed at 8/1 in the Listed Novice Handicap Chase at the Festival.  Last year’s gold medallist was pulled up in the ‘RSA’.  Upwards and onwards in positive mode by informing that seven-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests, with vintage representatives coming to the gig on a four-timer on this occasion. BALLYANDY and FULL IRISH are the relevant raiders this time around, whilst SIZING TENNESSEE demands respect, given that Colin Tizzard held two options at the top of the weight in midweek when looking to land his third win in the race in the last nine years.
Favourite factor: Just one favourite has prevailed thus far, whilst 14 of the last 16 favourites have finished out of the frame!

Record of the course winner in the second race:

1/8—Sizing Tennessee (soft)

2/5—Ballyandy (good & good to soft)

2/7—Solstice Star (soft & heavy)

 

1.50: Four recent winners of this race went on to contest what was then the ‘Mildmay Of Flete’ (now the Racing Post Plate) without any of the scorers finishing in the frame at the Festival.  13 of the 14 horses that contested races at the Festival after winning this event finished out with the washing.  I cannot remember the last time that Paul Nicholls would have saddled just one runner at one of the main Cheltenham meetings but that is the scenario today, whereby the chance of FRODON has to be respected.  Anyone who doubted Paul’s word earlier in the season that he was going to ‘downsize’ his number of runners this season have been proved wrong.  O O SEVEN has been the subject of some support overnight, whilst the Placepot chance for COO STAR SIVOLA is there for all to see, especially with Nicky Williams having saddled four of his last ten runners to winning effect.
Favourite factor: Six of the 20 favourites have won to date, offering punters a profit of £762.50 to one hundred pound level stakes.  10 of the 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the third contest on the card:

1/4—Frodon (soft)

2/5—Shantou Flyer (good & soft)

1/4—O O Seven (good)

1/4—King’s Odyssey (heavy)

1/4—Ballyhill (heavy)

1/7—Coo Star Sivola (good to soft)

 

2.25: No matter which way this event pans out, we have to suggest that this is a poor renewal given that it is meant to be a realistic Gold Cup trial which in all honesty, the race has rarely proved to be.  BRISTOL DE MAI still has plenty of doubters but surely if there is to be a subsequent ‘Blue Riband’ winner in the field, it is the Nigel Twiston-Davies representative.  AMERICAN could yet be anything I guess, whilst ground conditions have worked out well for supporters of THE LAST SAMURAI.  If I had to opt for an outsider to outrun his odds, the nomination would be Singlefarmpayment.
Favourite factor: The last 19 favourites have all been beaten, whilst nine of the last 18 market leaders have failed to claim toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Cotswold Chase:

1/4—Definitely Red (soft)

3/12—Perfect Candidate (good – soft – heavy)

1/8—Theatre Guide (good)

2/5—Singlefarmpayment (good & heavy)

 

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3.00: With Alan King not represented this year (Alan has secured three of the last six renewals), the race looks best left to Nicky Henderson’s pair, namely PACIFIC DE BAUNE and SANTINI, not that I would be interested in having a bet in the race aside form or favourite wager.  It’s difficult to tell how much BLACK OP will have improved for his facile success the other week but if there is a ‘dark horse’ lurking in the wings, it’s the Tom George raider I’ll wager.
Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last decade with market leaders coming to the gig on a hat trick this time around.  Although 16/1 and 12/1 winners have emerged during the last six years, the other gold medallists have scored at a top price of 13/2 via the last ten renewals.  The last six favourites have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

2/2—Slate House (good & soft)

1/1—Tikkanbar (heavy)

 

3.35: This meeting was ruined by the passing of Many Clouds after last year’s brave victory in the ‘Cotswold’ and now there will tears shed before this race is even run I’ll wager, when BEER GOGGLES is ‘stripped off’ in the paddock by connections for reasons I won’t dwell on just now.  To say that a victory for the seven-year-old would be ‘emotional’ is the biggest understatement of this year (or arguably any season – save for Aldaniti in 1981) but that scenario is a distinct possibility if Richard Johnson’s mount can build on his success last time out Newbury.  Emotions aside, FINIAN’S OSCAR (winner of six of his nine races to date) and WHOLESTONE (rarely runs a bad race) are marginally preferred to THE WORLDS END if Beer Goggles fails to score, at least leaving some packets of tissues for sale in the kiosks for the next meeting at Prestbury Park.
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won during the last decade, though three of the other four market leaders finished out with the washing when missing out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Agrapart (soft)

4/6—Wholestone (2 x soft – good – heavy)

2/9—Court Minstrel (good & good to soft)

3/4—Thomas Campbell (2 x good & soft)

1/1—Finan’s Oscar (good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Saturday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Tom George (1/13 – loss of 6) – 6/97 – loss of 55

6—Colin Tizzard (7/32 +28) – 19/187 – loss of 80

5—Nicky Henderson (7/23 – marginal profit) – 36/332 – loss of 143

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (7/36 +28) – 28/242 – loss of 64

4—Nick Williams (0/7) – 5/50 +19

3—Fergal O’Brien (3/20 – marginal loss) – 14/109 +33

2—Brian Ellison (0/2) – 0/20

2—Harry Fry (1/10 – loss of 6) – 13/76 – loss of 8

2—Warren Greatrex (1/9 – loss of 5) – 4/64 – loss of 34

2—Philip Hobbs (1/14 – loss of 9) – 34/242 – loss of 17

2—Martin Keighley (2/13 +23) – 11/95 +18

2—Emma Lavelle (0/1) – 1/41 – loss of 37

2—Sophie Leech (0/12) – 1/31 – loss of 10 points

2—Evan Williams (0/5) – 7/87 – loss of 3

+ 21 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

60 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £591.50 – 6 favourites – 1 winner & 5 unplaced

Uttoxeter: £163.30 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Lingfield: £82.20 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Kempton: £31.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 26th January

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DONCASTER – JANUARY 26

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £32.30 (7 favourites: 3 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Doncaster: 

Leg 1 (12.50): 2 (Doktor Glaz), 1 (Spiritual Man) & 5 (Glimpse Of Gold)

Leg 2 (1.25): 9 (Perfect Harmony) & 3 (Cracking Destiny)

Leg 3 (1.55): 1 (Mount Mews) & 2 (Wotzizname)

Leg 4 (2.30): 8 (Nube Negra) & 1 (Bambys Boy)

Leg 5 (3.05): 5 (Bako De La Saulaie), 8 (Amber Gambler) & 9 (Baileys Concerto)

Leg 6 (3.40): 12 (Does It In Style), 7 (Peppay Le Pugh) & 10 (Fit For Fifty)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.50:  Every horse in training is allowed an off day once in a while whereby I am offering DOKTOR GLAZ another chance following a slightly disappointing effort here at Town Moor the last day.  The fact that money is emerging for Rose Dobbin’s raider is a positive sign too, particularly from a Placepot perspective.  Others to consider include SPIRITUAL MAN (the first of no less than eight runners on the card for Jonjo O’Neill) and GLIMPSE OF GOLD.
Favourite factor: All three favourites had claimed toteplacepot positions (one (7/2** winner) before the 2016 renewal which witnessed the complete demise of the 7/2 market leader.  Things returned to type twelve months ago however when the 2/1 market leader snared a Placeepot position without winning the relevant contest.

 

1.25: Alan King has enjoyed plenty of success on the corresponding weekend in recent years and his beaten favourite PERFECT HARMONY is given another chance in this grade/company.  Alan’s Definite Article gelding ran halfway down the field in last year’s Championship Bumper event at the Cheltenham Festival in March and even though a 33/1 chance on the day, contesting that event (finished halfway down the pack) bodes well for his chance here.  CRACKING DESTINY is the obvious danger from the form lines we have witnessed to date, especially with Nicky Henderson sending just the one runner up the M1 today despite plenty of entries earlier in the week.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Doncaster card.

 

1.55:  A race which inevitably attracts, Harry Fry is looking to maintain his 100% record in the contest with WOTZIZNAME who appears to have MOUNT MEWS to beat.  Malcolm Jefferson has some really nice horses at home this season and his progressive seven-year-old Presenting gelding looks sure to take the beating this afternoon.  Philip Hobbs continues to enter his horses sparingly (only four runners during the last week) during a rare patch of indifferent form, whereby the jury is very much ‘out’ regarding the chance of Robbib’hannon.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 11/8 favourite missed out on a toteplacepot position behind horses which filled the frame at 6/4 & 25/1.  It was a similar case the following year as the 11/8 market leader finished out with the washing behind horses that did the business from a Placepot perspective at 9/2 & 4/1.  The next 7/4 favourite won before last year’s 10/11 market leader finished last of four in a ‘win only’ contest.

Course winner in the third event on the card:

2/2—Mount Mews (good & soft)

 

2.30: Richard Johnson has won on his only ride for Micky Hammond this season whereby connections will be hoping that BAMBYS BOY can at least get NUBE NEGRA off the bridal at the business end of proceedings.  Although eleven runners are set to face the starter, it would be churlish in the extreme to oppose this pair.  NUBE NEGRA ran Apple’s Shakira to less than four lengths at Cheltenham the last day and a repeat of that effort (without any further improvement) would be good enough to record a facile victory, for all Dickie’s urgings aboard Bambys Boy up the home straight.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites have finished in the frame to date, stats which include one (4/9) winner.

 

3.05:  There are overnight signs that the potential ‘rag’ in the field BAILEYS CONCERTO will outrun his 25/1 trade press quote, a price which is not too conspiuous in the dead of night when writing this column.  Dianne Sayer’s twelve-year-old is offered up as the speculative each way play accordingly, albeit more logical winners in the field include BAKO DE LA SAULAIE and AMBLER GAMBLER.
Favourite factor: A couple of (2/1 & 9/4) favourites missed out on Placepot positions before the next market leader scored at 4/1.  This was followed by last year’s 11/4 joint favourites which filled the forecast positions.

Course winners in the fifth race:

1/3—Steel Summit (good)

1/3—Grandads Horse (soft)

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3.40: DOES IT IN STYLE and PEPPAY LE PUGH look the safest Placepot options in the last leg of our favourite wager, whilst adding FIT FOR FIFTY into the equation, with Donald McCain’s runner going so well just now.  Donald has sent out nine of his last seventeen runners to winning effect, though a Placepot position will simply be appreciated here if we have live units running onto the finale.

Favourite factor: Three of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions via two gold medals and one of the silver variety.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Doncaster card on Friday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

8 runners—Jonjo O’Neill (4/19 +18) – 12/90 – loss of 16 points

7—Nicky Richards (1/4 – slight loss) – 4/18 +11

5—Tim Vaughan (0/1) – 0/27

5—Ian Williams (2/10 – loss of 2) – 8/65 – loss of 9

3—Richard Phillips (0/1) – 2/28 – loss of 8

3—Dan Skelton (3/9 +1) – 5/62 – loss of 46

2—Jennie Candlish (0/1) – 3/22 – loss of 5

2—Ben Case (1/4 +3) – 4/26 – loss of 4

2—David Dennis (1/5 – loss of 2 points) – 3/31 – loss of 22

2—Rose Dobbin (2/6 +7) – 4/18 +11

2—Oliver Greenall (No runners at Doncaster during the last five years)

2—Alan King (0/8) – 22/92 +35

2—Charlie Longsdon (1/13 – loss of 5) – 7/74 – loss of 27

2—Michael Mullineaux (First runners at Doncaster this season) – 1/6 +45

2—Dianne Sayer (0/2) – 2/11 +7

2—Michael Scudamore (0/2) – 1/9 – loss of 4 points

+ 29 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

72 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Huntingdon: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £52.60 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 9th January

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TAUNTON – JANUARY 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £35.30 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation Taunton: 

Leg 1 (12.35): 3 (Kohuma), 1 (Overawed & 4 (Chilli Romance)

Leg 2 (1.05): 4 (Coup De Pinceau) & 1 (As I See It)

Leg 3 (1.35): 6 (King Of Realms) & 1 (Demon D’Aunou)

Leg 4 (2.10): 6 (Orbasa), 1 (Relentless Dreamer) & 5 (Sandy Beach)

Leg 5 (2.45): 7 (Padleyourowncanoe), 2 (Reejah) & 3 (Blairs Cove)

Leg 6 (3.20): 2 (Unioniste) & 3 (Bear’s Affair)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.35: A couple of in form trainers saddle horses here and with previous little else to work with, OVERAWED (Tom George – recent stats of 5/17) and KOHUMA (Robert Walford – 7/28) are the first names on the team sheet.  Although a maiden after twelve assignments to date, the chance for CHILLI ROMANCE to secure another Placepot position is there for all to see.

Favourite factor: This is a new race at Taunton with which to open proceedings.

 

1.05: Pricing up races well before the off is invariably a difficult task, though the lads/lasses in the office of the trade press are (seemingly) well wide of the mark with the 5/4 call about AS I SEE IT.  Harry Fry’s ‘Point’ winner is freely available at 9/4 with four firms at the time of writing and though I cannot eliminate the six-year-old from my Placepot enquiries, the quotes could not prize money out of my possession in the dead of night.  On the flip side of the trade press betting forecast, I doubt there will be much of the projected 4/1 COUP DE PINCEAU available from what I can make of the quiet exchange dealings this morning.

Favourite factor: Although all three favourites have finished of the frame thus far, bookmakers have not had things going all their own way as the top priced winner to date was returned at just 5/1.

 

1.35: Trainer Ian Williams was enjoying a fine last quarter last year before he lost his highly progressive London Prize on an ill-fated day from which the yard has not fully recovered.  Ian will hopefully bounce back here with KING OF REALMS who despite the number of horses involved, seemingly only has one or two to beat.  DEMON D’AUNOU appears to be the pick of the opposition.

Favourite factor: All four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions thus far, albeit we had to wait until last year for the first (1/3) jolly to prevail from a win perspective.  The previous three favourites were beaten at odds of 4/6, 8/11 and 1/2!

 

2.10: The Sandown effort of ORBASA the last day suggests that 10/1 might be a big enough price about the Paul Nicholls representative, albeit consistency would not feature on his curriculum vitae.  Connections will be eyeing RELENTLESS DREAMER and SANDY BEACH as possible dangers, whilst EARTHMOVES is another potential each way play in the contest.

Favourite factor: Last year’s successful 6/4 favourite made up for the complete demise of the inaugural 11/4 market leader the previous season.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Relentless Dreamer (good)

1/5—Earthmoves (soft)

1/5—Sandy Beach (good to soft)

1/1—Timeforwest (good)

 

2.45: Thankfully we look set for a dry (if cloudy) day at Taunton, though it’s a shame that the overnight ground was not in better shape as REEJAH would have been really interesting given his 14/1 odds of offer at the time of writing.  A winner of 6/12 races to date with Nigel Hawke’s yard in blistering form, I’m still going to add the outsider into the Placepot mix and hope for the best.  More logical winners given the projected (soft) conditions include PADLEYOUROWNCANOE and FIDUX.  There has been support for BLAIRS COVE overnight though like REEJAH, better ground would have made the money more interesting.  All in all, this is a really interesting race to watch.

Favourite factor: Two of the three market leaders have finished in the frame, stats which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of the course winners in the fifth event:

1/1—Rejaah (good)

2/7—Here’s Herbie (good & good to soft)

1/1—Padleyourowncanoe (soft)

 

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3.20: This looks the right sort of (Hunter Chase) discipline for UNIONISTE given his advancing years.  A really decent type when at the top of his game a few years back, David Maxwell should get a good tune out of the ten-year-old for the ‘local’ Paul Nicholls team.  There are a few alternative options to consider though from a Placepot perspective, BEAR’S AFFAIR looks to be the value for money call.  As a winner of 4/8 assignments at the venue, there will be worse 100/1 chances on the card than Milosam, though connections will probably just be happy to see him complete the course this time around, something that Milosam has only managed to do once via his last seven outings.

Favourite factor: We still await the first successful favourite, whilst just one of three market leaders has secured a Placepot position to date.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Imperial Circus (good)

4/8—Milosam (3 x good + heavy)

1/3—Princely Player (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Taunton card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) & careers ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

6 runners—Colin Tizzard (3/14 +4) – 34/342 - loss of 131

5—Paul Nicholls (5/22 – loss of 12 points) – 213/818 – loss of 119

4—Harry Fry (0/3) – 23/83 – loss of 12

4—Nigel Hawke (1/4 – level on the season) – 11/237 – loss of 113

4—Nicky Martin (First runners this season) – 0/1

3—Sue Gardner (0/1) – 7/94 – loss of 45

3—Tom George (0/2) – 9/115 – loss of 41

3—Philip Hobbs (0/12) – 148/818 – loss of 80

2—Jack R Barber (0/2) -1/3 – loss of 1

2—Rebecca Curtis (0/5) – 5/35 – loss of 7

2—Mark Gillard (0/1) – 3/104 – loss of 83

2—Ron Hodges (0/1) – 63/738 – loss of 281

2—Martin Keighley (0/2) – 3/45 – loss of 23

2—Alan King (0/6) – 42/250 – loss of 54

2—Richard Mitford-Slade (1/1 +100) – 1/1 +100

2—Jonjo O’Neill (1/5 +10) – 5/110 – loss of 69

2—Richard Price (0/1) – 4/70 – loss of 20

2—Jeremy Scott (1/3 +4) – 12/92 – loss of 20

2—Dan Skelton (0/8) – 10/51 – loss of 13

2—Sam Thomas (First runners this season) – 1/8 +59

2—Evan Williams (0/7) – 36/279 – loss of 40

+ 30 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

88 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £68.60 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Southwell: £25.20 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 1 unplaced

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 29th December

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SOUTHWELL – DECEMBER 29

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £92.50 (7 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 5 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Southwell: 

Leg 1 (12.15): 4 (Mr Carbonator) & 2 (Felisa)

Leg 2 (12.45): 6 (Street Sensation), 7 (Crystal Deauville) & 5 (Magic Pulse)

Leg 3 (1.15): 4 (Beyond Recall) & 3 (The Great Wall)

Leg 4 (1.50): 1 (Vercingetorex), 3 (Katie Gale) & 5 (Wordiness)

Leg 5 (2.25): 3 (Piazon), 2 (Captain Lars) & 7 (Penny Dreadful)

Leg 6 (3.00): 9 (Scotch Myst) & 8 (Satchville Flyer)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.15: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-4 thus far and I fully expect the trend to be extended, especially with MR CARBONATOR and FELISA having been declared.  The first name raider hails from Phil Kirby’s yard which boasts 4/9 stats at the venue this season, figures which have produced 11 points of level stake profit.  The fact that MR CARBONATOR is the only course winner in the line up adds icing on the cake.  FELISA can be expected to be there or thereabouts as is usually the case, with the alternative each way option being awarded to Progressive Jazz.

Favourite factor: Only two of the six favourites (via just four renewals) have secured Placepot positions, stats which include one successful (13/8) market leader from a win perspective.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Mr Carbonator

 

12.45: The problem with Richard Fahey runners at all weather venues is that his runners tend to dominate the market, even if it is only odds compilers pricing up his runner to the exclusion of all other initially, before betting the relevant rivals around Richard’s representative.  On this occasion, Richard’s STREET SENSATION showed little on debut, albeit after a tardy start which complicates matters still further, especially as this is a Street Cry representative and as much as the stock can be truly outstanding individuals, they can also by temperamental to say the least.  CRYSTAL DEAUVILLE and MAGIC PULSE are added into the mix accordingly, especially as this ‘dead eight’ contest would take on a whole new meaning if a non runner reared its ugly head prior to flag fall.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Southwell card.

 

1.15: This is a match event in all but name and with Archie Watson having won with four of the eleven runners he has saddled here at Southwell this year, his only runner on the card BEYOND RECALL demands plenty of respect.  Michael Appleby has built up a strong following of supporters on all weather tracks down the years but as you can see by the figures at the foot of the column, the trainer’s actual strike rate in nothing out of the ordinary and as much as THE GREAT WALL is the only other horse mentioned in despatches, BEYOND RECALL is preferred, especially at the prices on offer.

Favourite factor: The four market leaders have secured a pair of gold and silver medals whilst claiming Placepot positions to date.

 

1.50: All four winners have carried a minimum burden of 9-9 which confirms the chance of VERCINGETORIX who should sit bang on that mark with a five pound claimer in the plate.  I note that there is a fair amount of money waiting on the exchanges in the positive queue at big prices about course winner KATIE GALE, whilst WORDINESS completes my trio against the remaining five contenders.

Favourite factor: Although favourites have won two of the four contest at odds of 2/1** and 11/10, the other three market leaders all missed out on Placepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

3/10—Katie Gale

3/13—Deep Resolve

1/3—Rule Of The Nile

2/14—Serenity Now

 

2.25: CAPTAIN LARS returns to defend his crown and the claimer potentially puts Derek Shaw’s eight-year-old well in here by comparison to last year’s figures.  Life rarely works out as simply as that of course, especially when you have a predator (PIAZON) in the field which boasts a 5/9 record at one of of the toughest tracks in the land to build impressive stats.  Throw the alternative win and place option PENNY DREADFUL into the works and we can deduce that ‘the double’ for the captain is no gimme twelve months on.

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Favourite factor: Three of the six favourites have ‘troubled the judge’ from a Placepot perspective, though only last year’s 4/1** has prevailed thus far.

Record of the course winners in the fifth contest:

3/10—Captain Lars

5/9—Piazon

7/30—Crosse Fire

1/7—Red Stripes

 

3.00: This race should come with a government health warning attached which I have tried to ‘advertise’ by my words in the ‘favourite factor’ details immediately below.  The chance for SCOTCH MYST is this grade/company is there for all to see if you are brave enough to take the race on, whilst I guess a similar comment could apply to SATCHVILLE FLYER on this pick of his form.  The fact that SCOTCH MYST has won here before just about seals the Placepot deal from my viewpoint.  I hope you continue to enjoy the festivities leading into the New Year.  My ‘drug intake’ has hit record levels unfortunately!  Stay warm, stay well.

Favourite factor: Only one of the four market leaders has raised any sort of gallop by claiming a bronze gong to date, the race being perfectly illustrated in bleak fashion last year when the 3/1 favourite finished last of twelve behind a 50/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/3—Scotch Myst

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Southwell card on Friday – followed by their seasonal ratio at the track + profits/losses accrued:

7 runners—Scott Dixon (7/138 +3)

4—Michael Appleby (17/145 – loss of 47 points)

3—John Balding (4/33 +3)

3—Roy Bowring (2/21 – loss of 9 points)

3—David Evans (11/67 +15)

3—Richard Fahey (10/35 +9)

2—David Brown (4/19 – loss of 6 points)

2—John Butler (4/40 – loss of 19 points)

2—Ann Duffield (1/13 – loss of 2 points)

2—Brian Ellison (0/13)

2—David C Griffiths (5/21 +21)

2—Phil Kirby (4/9 +11)

2—Daniel Mark Loughnane (7/37 +21)

2—Sir Mark Prescott (2/6 – loss of 2 points)

+ 25 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

64 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £577.90 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 29th December 2017

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Thursday's Result :

2.55 Lingfield : Corazon Espinado @ 9/4 BOG 2nd at 13/8 Close up, headway over 1f out, switched right inside final furlong, soon chased winner, kept on one pace.

Next up is Friday's...

3.10 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Muthabir @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good to Soft ground worth £5,630 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has won 2 of his last 6 outings and was a winner over this trip when last seen a month ago at Kempton on similarly good to soft ground.

Prior to today, he's already won at this track as well as being...

  • 4/9 in fields of 7-10 runners and 4/8 when priced at 5/1 or shorter
  • 3/7 after a break of 30-45 days and 3/5 on good to soft
  • 2/4 at 3m/3m0.5f and has 2 wins under today's jockey.

In addition to his own stats, he features in one of micro-systems...

...2012-17 / Class 2-5 / male hcp hurdlers / OR 80-125 / carrying 9-13 to 10-12 / won a hcp hurdle LTO less than 5 weeks ago...

The above has produced 127 winners from 578 and the resultant 22% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 77pts at an ROI of 13.3%, from which...

  • those running on good to soft are 30/118 (25.4%) for 52.7pts (+44.6%)
  • those running in December are 16/62 (25.8%) for 24.9pts (+40.1%)
  • and those running in December on good to soft are 5/9 955.6%) for 31.6pts (+351.5%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Muthabir @ 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, Betway, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th December

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CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £119.70 (7 favourites - 3 winners - 2 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 3 (Apple’s Shikari) & 2 (Nube Negra)

Leg 2 (12.45): 4 (Movewiththetimes), 1 (Jameson) & 3 (Coo Star Sivola)

Leg 3 (1.20): 6 (Bentelimar), 2 (Gino Trail) & 4 (Grey Gold)

Leg 4 (1.55): 1 (Clan Des Obeaux), 11 (Guitar Pete) & 8 (King’s Odyssey)

Leg 5 (2.30): 1 (Count Meribel), 3 (Equus Secretus) & 2 (Aye Aye Charlie)

Leg 6 (3.05): 2 (The New One) & 1 (Melon)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10: The last five horses saddled by Paul Nicholls in this opening event have secured two gold medals and two of the silver variety between them, the only problem being the defeat of a 2/7 chance during the period.  Paul secured an 84/1 four timer on the card six years ago, having saddled 38 winners at the two day fixture during the last eight years.  You might imagine than I am particularly frustrated that Paul is not represented this time around, though I have left the stats in for you in terms of next year’s contest!  Upwards and onward by suggesting that old rival Nicky Henderson looks to have found a real star in APPLE’S SHIKARA and the obstacles look more of a threat than any of his rivals here.  NUBE NEGRA should prove to be the pick of the other three entries but if Dan Skelton’s raider gets within 10 lengths of the favourites, the Skelton team will probably be happy enough, especially as Dan’s Market Rasen debut winner is asked to give the filly four pounds!
Favourite factor: 63/65 horses which were sent off at 11/1 or more were beaten during the study period which suggests we should keep fancied horses on the right side, despite a 33/1 chance upsetting the apple-cart four years ago.  14 of the last 17 winners have been returned at 6/1 or less, statistics which includes six successful favourites.  14 of the last 18 market leaders have secured Placepot positions.  That said, ‘only’ five of the nine odds on favourites have won during the last 16 years.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

1/1—Apple’s Shakira (soft)

 

12.45: Six-year-olds have won seven of the last 14 renewals during which time, six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have obliged. The vintage record is especially impressive given that the vintage was not represented five years ago.  Two six-year-olds enter the equation with MOVEWITHTHE TIMES demanding centre stage over Kalondra.  I prefer JAMESON and course winner COO STAR SIVOLA as the main threats to the market leader on this occasion, casting aside the other six-year-old in the field.
Favourite factor: Going back a little further in time, 12 of the 17 favourites have secured toteplacepot positions via 16 renewals, statistics which include nine winners.

Record of the course winner in the second event on the card:

1/6—Coo Star Sivola

 

1.20: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last eleven renewals of this handicap steeplechase event over Cheltenham’s minimum trip, whilst favourites have won four of the last seven contests at 5/1-4/1-11/4-11/4**.  BENTELIMAR is the lone vintage representative this time around and having finished ‘in the three’ six times from ten starts on soft ground (winning three of those assignments), Charlie Longsdon’s Beneficial gelding is the each way call.  Kerry Lee will be in confident mode coming into this event because not only does the trainer have the current second favourite in the line up in GINO TRAIL, Kerry has also declared GREY GOLD with live win and place claims off a featherweight.  The twelve-year-old is no back number as yet from my viewpoint and with a five pound claimer booked, GREY GOLD receives over two and a half stones from former champion Sire De Grugy.  PEARLS LEGEND has his ground but despite having finished in the three 22/33 times in and around this trip, he is not quite the force of old.  That said, this race has ‘bookmaker’s result’ written all over it according to the gospel of yours truly.
Favourite factor: The previous 11 winners had been sent off at a top price of 13/2 before last year’s 33/1 winner reared its ugly head. It’s worth noting that only five market leaders (includes four winners of their respective events) have finished in the frame during the recent period, negative figures which include two pairs of joint favourites in two of the last three years.

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

1/5—Sire De Grugy (good)

1/3—Pearls Legend (soft)

 

1.55: Paul Nicholls saddles CLAN DES OBEAUX, LE PREZIEN and ROMAIN DE SENAM in an attempt to win the race for the fifth time in nine years.  Seven-year-old’s lead the six-year-olds 5-4 during the last 14 years, whilst five of the last ten gold medallists carried weights of 11-4 or more to victory.  GUITAR PETE is the lone seven-year-old in the line up, whilst KING’S ODYSSEY was still going plenty well enough in this event last year when capsizing just as the taps were being turned on.  This pair represent each way value, though whether they can master CLAN DES OBEAUX is another matter entirely.  No horse has represented this columnist better than Splash Of Ginge down the years but Twisty’s grand warrior had a tough race when scoring last time out and others look better weighted on this occasion.
Favourite factor: A fancied horse - if not the favourite - usually wins this event, with 35 victors having been returned at single-figure odds, including 15 of the last 20 gold medallists. In 2007, Tamarinbleu became the longest priced winner in the contest’s history when scoring at 22/1.  Just seven market leaders have finished in the frame during the last 15 years.  Indeed, seven renewals have slipped by since the last market leader prevailed.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/4—Le Prezien (soft)

2/6—Foxhill Trail (good & soft)

1/4—Long House Hill (good)

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2/6—Ballyalton (good & good to soft)

1/3—King’s Odyssey (heavy)

3/11—Splash Of Ginge (2 x soft & good to soft)

 

2.30: Five-year-olds lead the six-year-olds 6-3 via the last 11 contests, having secured six of the last eight events, whilst Nigel Twiston-Davies has saddled two of the last three winners.  Nigel has declared COUNT MERIBEL with an obvious chance on behalf of the five-year-olds, albeit fellow vintage representative EQUUS SECRETUS looks a live threat.  All would be done and dusted for the event had Fergal O’Brien not entered two potential jokers in the pack, the pick of which might prove to be the outsider of the pair, namely AYE AYE CHARLIE.
Favourite factor: Market leaders (of one description or another) have secured ten of the 13 renewals thus far, whilst 13 of the last 16 favourites have finished in the frame.

 

3.05: Considering that favourites tend to dominate this toteplacepot finale, it remains interesting that five-year-olds have won three of the last seven (and four of the last ten) contests.  MELON is the lone vintage representative and with Willie Mullins sending over his runners for more than just ‘travel experience’, Willie’s Medicean gelding is the danger in stopping THE NEW ONE bringing the house down at Presbury Park this afternoon.  Nigel’s grand servant goes for a 4/4 record in the contest and if there is one horse at Cheltenham today that is just about guaranteed to give its running, THE NEW ONE is that thoroughbred.  An extremely good judge suggests that John Constable is not one to write off at this level.
Favourite factor: 12 favourites have won during the last 16 years, whilst 13 of the 18 market leaders have finished in the frame.

Record of the course winner in the International Hurdle:

6/13—The New One (4 x good to soft – good – soft)

3/8—Old Guard (good – good to soft – soft)

1/9—Dell ‘Arca (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Cheltenham card on Saturday followed by their total number of winners (in brackets) on the corresponding day at Cheltenham during the last five years

5 runners—Paul Nicholls (5)

5—Nigel Twiston-Davies (6)

4—Dan Skelton

3—Fergal O’Brien

2—Nicky Henderson (2)

2—Kerry Lee

2—David Pipe (3)

2—Evan Williams (1)

2—Nick Williams

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

53 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £1,638.10 – 7 favourites – 2 winners & 5 unplaced

Hereford: This is a new fixture on the racing calendar

Newcastle (A/W): £25.60 – 8 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £106.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

Stat of the Day, 16th December 2017

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Friday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG 4th at 15/8  Tracked leaders on inside, effort to challenge 3 out, ridden before next, kept on and every chance until no extra approaching last

Next up is Saturday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 2, 4yo+ Handicap Chase over 3m on Good ground worth £15,640 to the winner...

And an 8 yr old gelding with 9 top 3 finishes from 13 starts to date, including 6 wins and in those 13 races, he is...

  • 6/11 in fields of 1-11 runners (3/5 in chases)
  • 6/11 going left handed (3/6 in chases)
  • 6/9 at odds of 6/1 & shorter (3/5 in chases)
  • 3/8 over fences
  • 3/7 within 6 weeks of his last run (2/5 in chases)
  • 3/6 on Good ground (2/5 in chases)
  • 4/5 at Class 2 (2/3 in chases)
  • 3/5 in fields of 8 to 11 (1/2 in chases)
  • 3/3 in this grade (1/1 in chases)

And he's trained by Dan Skelton, whose handicap chasers priced at 7/2 to 12/1 over trips of 2m1.5f to 3m1f are 27/176 (15.3% SR) for 21.2pts (+12.1% ROI) including...

  • those last seen 11-60 days ago : 23/131 (17.6%) for 34.5pts (+26.4%)
  • on Good ground : 15/76 (19.7%) for 24.2pts (+31.8%)
  • in the October-December period : 13/76 (17.1%) for 30.8pts (+40.5%)
  • 8 yr olds are 8/41 (19.5%) for 14.4pts (+35.1%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 8.15pm on Friday with plenty of acceptable 9/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Friday 15th December

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CHELTENHAM - DECEMBER 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £1,708.10 (7 favourites – 1 winner & 6 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Cheltenham: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 2 (Western Ryder) & 7 (Summerville Boy)

Leg 2 (12.45): 4 (Tintern Theatre), 3 (Sizing Tennessee) & 2 (Dual At Dawn)

Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (Smaoineamh Alainn), 4 (Okotoks) & 2 (Remiluc)

Leg 4 (1.55): 1 (Song Saa), 6 (Twenty Eight Guns) & 8 (Viking Mistress)

Leg 5 (2.30): 3 (Waytzizname) & 6 (Shanroe Sands)

Leg 6 (3.05): 3 (Josies Orders), 1 (More Than That) & 2 (Tiger Roll)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

Breakdown of the 2015 record Placepot dividend of £91,774.50 to a one pound stake at this corresponding meeting:

First leg: One of the two 3/1 second favourites claimed a Placepot position alongside an 11/2 chance in a six runner contest

Second leg: Although two outsiders filled the forecast positions at 16/1 & 25/1, the sixth horse in the market at 9/1 reached the frame.  All four 6/1 co-favourites finished out with the washing

Third leg: The 11/8 market leader finished out of the money behind horses which secured Placepot positions at 8/1, 14/1 & 9/1

Fourth leg: The first three favourites at 10/3, 4/1 & 4/1 all finished out of the ‘dead eight frame’

Fifth leg: The 11/4 second favourite led home horses at 7/1 & 28/1 with the 5/2 favourite finishing nearer last than first

Sixth leg: Regular readers will know that I have waxed lyrical about the poor performances of favourites in handicap hurdle races over a distance beyond the minimum trip.  Last year’s result (33/1-66/1-16/1) guaranteed that a huge dividend was just waiting to be announced.  The first six horses in the market all finished out with the washing.

Afterthought: Eight of the seventeen win and placed horses were sent off in single figures, proving that you don’t have to ‘go for broke’ to win a great dividend.  Indeed - 13/17 were placed at 16/1 or less – with 16/20 horses starting at 20/1 or more finishing out of the frame

 

Today’s race by race analysis: 

 

12.10:  By Cheltenham standards, this is an extremely ordinary card though it is still better sport than we have to witness on most days.  Six-year-olds have won three of the last five renewals though trainers have not been wise to the ‘edge’ this time around unfortunately, whereby I’m relying on WESTERN RYDE and SUMMERVILLE BOY to carry my Placepot cash in the opening event, the pair being listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  SHOAL BAY would be the call if you are looking for a big priced winner in the first heat and/or if you want to take on the fancied horses from a Placepot perspective.
Favourite factor:  Just one (4/6) favourite has obliged during the last decade, though eight of the relevant gold medallists scored at a top price of 5/1.  Six of the ten market leaders claimed Placepot position though from a win perspective, favourites have been turned over at 4/7 and 8/11 in recent years.

 

12.45: Six-year-olds have won 11 of the last 15 renewals and the trend could well be extended, with TINTERN THEATRE having been given the green light by Nigel Twiston-Davies.  Out of interest, the lone vintage raider is attempting to become the eighth consecutive six-year-old winner of the contest! Paul Nicholls has secured four of the last nine renewals, though the weather this week has seemingly gone against his representative Coastal Dip.  SIZING TENNESSEE and DUAL AT DAWN are preferred accordingly.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have prevailed during the study period, whilst twelve market leaders have finished in the frame.  Just two of the seven odds on favourites have won during the last 17 years.  A total of 39 horses starting at 6/1 or more failed to win during the study period.

 

1.20: 14 of the last 20 winners carried weights of 11-8 or less, whilst seven scorers were burdened with a maximum of 10-12.  Five-year-olds have won seven of the last 15 renewals.  Putting the stats and facts together, an overnight short list emerges containing the names of SMAOINEAMH ALAINN, OKOTOKS and REMILUC.  The first named runner (don’t ask me to type the name again) is the lone five-year-old in the contest, whilst OKOTOKS represents the underrated yard of Fergal O’Birebn who I have been telling you for some time in the unsung Cheltenham trainer to call on if you don’t know what to back.  Ian Williams saddled last year’s winner and it’s worth noting that the trainer had booked a five pound claimer aboard REMILUC who creeps into the ‘superior’ weight sector accordingly.
Favourite factor: Six clear market leaders have won in recent years, accompanied by two joint favourites.  14 of the last 24 jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.  A word of warning for favourite punters however, as the only odds on favourite was beaten ten years ago at 4/5.

Record of course winners in the third race:

1/5—Qualando (good)

 

1.55: SONG SAA was well beaten in this event last year but has subsequently won two of her eight assignments (one under heavy conditions), notwithstanding the fact that the Midnight Legend mare has finished ‘in the three’ in her last six races.  The seven pound claimer represents the same poundage in terms of her advantage compared to the effort twelve months ago which should enable the six-year-old to become competitive at the business end of the contest, arguably alongside the likes of TWENTY EIGHT GUNS and VIKING MISTRESS who both offer value for money from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: Horses filled the frame at 16/1, 7/1 & 13/23 in last year’s inaugural contest, with the 10/3 market leader missing out on a Placepot position.

 

2.30: The last 11 winners have carried a maximum burden of 11-4 whilst eight-year-olds have secured five of the last 12 renewals. WATZIZNAME and SHANROE SANTOS are the two horses I like in the line up which qualify via the trends.
Favourite factor: Favourites have an excellent record in this event, obliging on 23 occasions since the inaugural contest.  However, the most recent successful leader was Midnight Chase at 11/4 back in 2010.  It’s also worth noting that only two of last seven favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of course winners in the third race:

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1/5—Southfield Theatre (good to soft)

 

2.05: 11 of the last 12 winners have been nine years of age or more, with nine of those gold medallists recorded in double figures.   Enda Bolger has saddled four of the last ten winners and putting the stats and facts together, JOSIES ORDERS, MORE OF THAT and TIGER ROLL are nominated against the remaining six contenders.  The latter named raider fails the vintage trend requirement but like MORE THAN THAT, this new discipline might transform ordinary recent efforts into additional Cheltenham success given their great records at the venue.
Favourite factor: Eight of the last nine market leaders have claimed four gold and four silver medals between them alongside toteplacepot positions.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

4/7—More Than That (3 x good to soft & soft)

3/5—Tiger Roll (2 x good to soft & good)

3/4—Josies Orders (2 x good & good to soft)

1/11—Bless The Wings (good to soft)

1/10—Cantlow (good to firm)

1/3—Kingswell Theatre (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Cheltenham card on Friday – followed by this season’s stats + profits/losses accrued:

4 runners—Warren Greatrex (0/4)

4—Colin Tizzard (4/21 – loss of 11 points)

3—Enda Bolger (0/2)

3—Tom George (0/8)

3—Paul Nicholls (3/16 – loss of 4 points)

3—David Pipe (1/7 +5)

3—Michael Scudamore (1/1 +14)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (4/21 +23)

2—Gordon Elliott (0/6)

2—Chris Gordon (0/1)

2—Martin Keighley (2/9 +27)

2—Fergal O’Brien (3/13 +6)

2—Jonjo O’Neill (0/11)

2—Lucy Wadham (No previous runners this season)

2—Richard Woollacott (0/1)

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

57 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £54.30 – 7 favourites – 5 winners & 2 unplaced

Doncaster: £141.10 – 9 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 4 unplaced

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting

 

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2017

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Thursday's Result :

3.15 Taunton : Workbench @ 11/2 BOG non-runner Reason: Self Cert (Off Colour)

Next up is Friday's...

3.20 Doncaster :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 4, 4yo+ Mares Handicap Hurdle over 3m0.5f on Good ground worth £3,899 to the winner...

And a 5 yr old Mare sired by Midnight Legend, whose female handicap hurdlers racing over 2m3f to 3m1.5f are 86/580 (14.8% SR) for 248pts (+42.8% ROI) since 2009, including...

  • in female only races : 42/221 (19%) for 74.32pts (+33.6%)
  • at class 4 : 37/221 (16.7%) for 131.3pts (+59.4%)
  • 5 yr olds are 23/120 (19.2%) for 40.9pts (+34.1%)
  • and here at Doncaster : 4/13 (30.8%) for 6.1pts (+46.7%)

She's trained by Philip Hobbs and drops down a class today and over the last 4 yrs, runners from the yard dropping down a grade in NH handicaps are 33/190 (17.4% SR) for 82.2pts (+43.2% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 13/71 (18.3%) for 62.5pts (+88.1%)
  • and females are 5/11 (45.5%) for 21.5pts (+195.1%)

She's also Philip's only runner of the day, yet embarks on a 470-mile round trip from the Somerset base and this is relevant, because over the last 6 years, when having just one runner, Mr Hobbs is 70/312 (22.4% SR) for 60.3pts (+19.3% ROI), whilst in NH handicaps during December to February on tracks 200 miles or more away from his yard, the Hobbs runners are 10/55 (18.2% SR) for 33.2pts (+60.4% ROI), from which...

  • hurdlers are 5/25 (20%) for 26.6pts (+106.4%)
  • here at Doncaster : 6/19 (31.6%) for 39.1pts (+205.7%)
  • and Doncaster hurdlers are 4/10 (40%) for 39.12pts (+391.2%)

..pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Midnight Glory @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 at 5.45pm on Thursday whilst both Betfred & Totesport matched that price despite not going BOG until morning and there's plenty of acceptable 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Doncaster

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 2nd December

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NEWBURY – DECEMBER 2

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £461.80 (7 favourites - 3 winners & 4 unplaced)

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.10): 1 (Cap Soleil) & 4 (Banjo Girl)

Leg 2 (12.45): 3 (Fountains Windmill), 1 (Black Corton) & 5 (Wait For Me)

Leg 3 (1.20): 5 (O Maonlai), 4 (On Tour) & 6 (Gold Present)

Leg 4 (1.50): 3 (Air Force One) & 4 (Coeur De Lion)

Leg 5 (2.25): 1 (Charli Parcs), 7 (Cosmeapolitan) & 4 (Amore De Nuit)

Leg 6 (3.00): 14 (Missed Approach), 5 (Label Des Obeaux), 3 (American) & 2 (Whisper)

Suggested stake: 432 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Saturday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.10: Dual course winner CAP SOLEIL has her ground and is being backed off the boards to extend her good Newbury record in this (otherwise) slightly disappointing ‘short field’ event.  Five-year-olds have won three of the five contests to date whereby BANJO GIRL could prove to be the value for money alternative each way (and/or forecast) option. New readers might want to know the term (short field) used by yours truly which refers to a five/six/seven runner race in which only the first and second horses home ‘qualify’ from a toteplacepot/each way perspective.
Favourite factor: Three of the five favourites have secured Placepot positions by winning their respective events.

Record of the course winner in the opening race:

2/2—Cap Soleil (2 x good to soft)

 

12.45: Paul Nicholls has secured three of the last seven contests in which his stable was represented and Paul goes to war with his progressive six-year-old gelding BLACK CORTON who comes to the gig on a six-timer.  I successfully opposed Thistlecrack yesterday and as much as I would like to see Bryony Frost record another victory aboard Paul’s raider, I prefer the chance of FOUNTAINS WINDMILL today. Course winner WAIT FOR ME completes my trio against the other two options.  I apologise for the lack of some additional facts and stats today but I am suffering from a nasty virus/bug I picked up (I’ll wager) in one of my two visits to medical centres this week.
Favourite factor: Only three favourites have obliged during the last eleven years though that said, the biggest priced winner during the period was returned at just 8/1.  Only four of the last eleven market leaders secured Placepot positions in another short field contest.

Record of the course winner in the second event:

1/3—Wait For Me (soft)

1.20: Ten of the last thirteen winners of this event have carried weights of 11-5 or more and we have six ‘qualifiers’ to assess this year. A claiming pilot is responsible for ON TOUR slipping below the ‘superior’ weight barrier, though that has not stopped punters investing their money on the Evan Williams raider on the exchanges overnight.  Last year’s winner O MAONLAI returns to defend his crown under similar conditions carrying just two pounds more than was the case twelve months ago, despite being rated a six pound better horse this time around.  GOLD PRESENT will not represent great value though equally, it’s difficult to leave Nicky Henderson’s local hope out of the Placepot equation.
Favourite factor: Seven of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions, statistics which include three winning favourites.

Record of the course winner in the third contest:

2/5—Warriors Tale (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Different Gravy (soft)

2/6—O Maonlai (2 x good to soft)

2/2—Potters Cross (2 x good to soft)

1/2—No Buts (soft)

1/5—Little Jon (soft)

 

1.50: AIR FORCE ONE (seemingly) does to know how to run a bad race pure and simple, and it will take a brave punter to ignore his Placepot claims on the card.  Harry Fry’s six-year-old has won two of his four races under these projected (soft) conditions which should ensure that Noel Fehily’s mount is bang in contention at the business end of the contest, hopefully alongside COEUR DE LION who is another interesting runner for Alan King who is the joint leading trainer on this corresponding day at Newbury during the last five years on the five winner mark.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 market leader frustratingly missed out on a Placepot position by finishing fourth on behalf of the Skelton team.

Record of the course winner in the fourth event on the card:

1/1—Old Guard (soft)

1/4—Remiluc (soft)

1/2—Maestro Royal (good to soft)

 

2.40: Four-year-olds have won six renewals during the last eleven years and the two relevant entries (from top stables – they know stats matter) both hold decent chances, namely CHARLI PARCS (Nicky Henderson) and COSMEAPOLITAN (Alan King).  I spoke of Alan being the joint leading trainer earlier in the analysis and it is Paul Nicholls who has also landed five victories in recent times.  Paul saddles AMORE DE NUIT here, edging out High Bridge relating to my Placepot permutation.
Favourite factor: Although only two favourites have won during the study period, eight of the last eleven winners have scored at a top price of 9/2, whilst each way investors might have backed the other trio who were sent off at 8/1, 11/1 & 16/1.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race:

2/2—High Bridge (good to soft & soft)

1/1—Poppy Kay (good to soft)

1/2—Cosmeapolitan (good to soft)

3.00: Six and seven-year-olds have won 11 of the last 14 renewals of the ‘Hennessy’, with the seven-year-olds leading 6-5 in recent times.  Indeed, seven-year-olds have secured six of the last 12 contests. The average official mark of the winners during the study period was 153.  Taking the stats and facts into consideration, I have limited the field down to five runners, plenty of which offer value for money.  Alan King saddled the winner two years ago and his six-year-old raider LABEL DES OBEAUX is a six-year-old running off an official mark of 153.  Warren Greatrex has saddled a couple of winners on the corresponding card in recent years and the booking of Richard Johnson for his seven-year-old representative MISSED APPROACH catches the eye in no uncertain terms.  These horses are available at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively at the time of writing and can give investors a decent run for their collective monies according to the gospel of yours truly.  The other short listed runners consist of AMERICAN, WHISPER and COGRY.  Best of luck!
Favourite factor: Six favourites have won this event during the last 20 years, though just two of the other 14 market leaders have additionally secured toteplacepot positions.  12 of the last 14 winners have been returned at odds of 10/1 or less.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

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2/3—Coneygree (2 x soft)

1/2—Whisper (heavy)

1/1—Missed Approach (soft)

2/4—Bigbadjohn (good % good to soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Newbury card – followed by their five year total of winners at the corresponding Saturday meeting during the last five years:

8 runners—Paul Nicholls (5)

6—Nicky Henderson (2)

6—Nigel Twiston-Davies

4—Harry Fry

4—Alan King

3—Tom George (1)

3—Neil Mulholland

3—Colin Tizzard (4)

2—Rebecca Curtis (1)

2—Chris Gordon

2—Philip Hobbs (4)

2—Anthony Honeyball

2—Willie Mullins

2—Jonjo O’Neill

2—Ben Pauling

2—Lucy Wadham

2—Evan Williams (1)

+ I runner for Warren Greatrex who has saddled two winners down the years

+ 17 other different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

73 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Bangor: £79.60 – 7 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Doncaster: £37.90 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 1 unplaced

Newcastle (NH): £101.40 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Wolverhampton: £125.40 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 1 placed – 4 unplaced

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 1st December

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NEWBURY – DECEMBER 1

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £229.40 (6 favourites - 1 winner - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Newbury: 

Leg 1 (12.20): 13 (World Premier), 3 (Black Op) & 11 (Simply The Betts)

Leg 2 (12.50): 2 (Hell’s Kitchen), 6 (Bigmarte) & 1 (Crievehill)

Leg 3 (1.20): 8 (Santini) & 5 (Chef Des Obeaux)

Leg 4 (1.50): 4 (Willoughby Court) & 5 (Yanworth)

Leg 5 (2.25): 1 (O O Seven), 8 (Icing On The Cake) & 5 (Space Oddity)

Leg 6 (3.00): 1 (Unowwhatimeanharry) & 6 (Colin’s Sister)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

12.20: Four-year-olds have won the last seven renewals (and nine of the last eleven), stats which go against Lostintranslation, however promising Colin Tizzard’s Flemenfirth gelding appears to be.  I will adhere to my self-confessed ‘anorak’ tendency to stick with the figures by suggesting that the likes of WORLD PREMIER, BLACK OP and SIMPLY THE BETTS offer better value accordingly, win, lose or draw.  The trio is listed in order of preference in the dead of night, especially with Ben Pauling offering such a decent ratio at this venue as you can confirm towards the bottom of this analysis. Whatever the outcome, this is a fine event with which to open a truly fabulous card, especially for a Friday!  There is no ‘stand out price’ at the time of writing.  If you like the thought of having ‘stand out’ prices added to the service on a daily basis, perhaps you would be kind enough to let Matt know at your earliest convenience.  If I don’t receive a report that the service is popular, I will drop the additional information after the weekend.  Al prices offered were available at the time of writing today, whereby you might want to set your alarm clock a little earlier than usual this weekend!
Favourite factor: All eleven winners recently have scored at a top price of 8/1, statistics which include five successful market leaders. Eight of the last nine favourites have secured Placepot positions.

 

12.50: Six-year-olds have won five of the six renewals thus far and with HELL’S KITCHEN and BIGMARTE representing the vintage this time around, the ‘edge’ might be extended still further. That said, there is plenty of money creeping in for CREIEVHILL as I pen the Friday column which makes for interesting reading, especially with Nigel Twiston-Davies having won with six of his last 26 runners.  The ratio is hardly “red hot” as implied in the trade press, though 20 points of level stake profit during the period would have kept Nigel’s supporters happy.  Stand out price at the time of writing; 10/1 Crievehill (Bet365).
Favourite factor: Three of the seven market leaders having finished in the frame with two of their number winning their respective events at 5/2 and 11/4**.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/2—Dusky Legend (good)

1/2—Hell’s Kitchen (soft)

 

1.20: Nicky Henderson has saddled two of the three winners of this event thus far, having snared the silver medal via an 8/1 chance on the other occasion.  For the record, Nicky has enjoyed a glittering career and Newbury ranks second in terms of the number of winners (216) he has secured at his local course, with Kempton edging out the stats via ten more gold winners compared to this venue.  Nicky has opted to send two inmates with which to go to war here, namely SANTINI and CHEF DES OBEAUX and it would be churlish to ignore their claims given his record in the race to date.  There is little to report in a market dominated by the front four in the betting at the time writing.

Favourite factor: Only one of the three favourites have secured a Placepot position to date, when winning the relevant event at odds of 2/1.

 

1.50: Two of the last six winners (Coneygree and Bobs Worth) have gone on to win the Cheltenham Gold Cup, notwithstanding the victory of Denman in the race back in 2006.  Paul Nicholls has secured four of these races during the last twelve years, with the trainer swerving the 2017 Cheltenham Festival in March with last year’s winner Clan Des Obeaux.  You might put that name in your notebook (Paul is not rushing his inmate), given that the trainer has offered his five-year-old an entry in a Cheltenham race at their next meeting.  Back to today, with Paul having offered the green light to his recent debut chase winner ADRIEN DU PONT.  This is a tough ask however with WILLOUGHBY COURT and YANWORTH in the field (offered in order of preference) whereby the ‘trainer trend’ is under pressure this time around.  WILLOUGHBY COURT has untapped potential still to be realised I’ll wager which makes for a fascinating clash between the front two in the market. For the record, 28/1 might be as big as Western Miller gets (available at Bet365 & Betfair) this morning, though the real money has appeared in the positive queue on the exchanges for Yanworth which makes 5/6 look a tad big with Ladbrokes/Coral.
Favourite factor: Seven favourites have won during the last twenty years, whilst the last nineteen winners have scored at 10/1 or less.  18 of the 22 market leaders have secured Placepot positions during the study period.

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/1—Yanworth (soft)

 

2.25: Seven-year-olds boast the best recent record in this event having secured five of the last thirteen renewals and I could offer definite Placepot chances to this year’s pair of vintage representatives, namely O O SEVEN and course winner ICING ON THE CAKE.  Nicky Henderson’s first named raider has long since been a favourite of mine and his record after a break is worth noting (3/3 for three months of more), whilst ground conditions pose no problems for connections.  9/1 for ICING ON THE CAKE (bet365/Sportingbet/Stan James) might be big enough about Oliver Sherwood’s raider, whilst SPACE ODDITY completes my trio against the other five contenders is an absorbing ‘dead eight’ contest.
Favourite factor: Only one (joint) favourite has prevailed via the last fourteen contests during which time, seven of the fifteen market leaders finished in the frame.

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

1/1—Willie Boy (good to soft)

1/3—Icing On The Cake (good to soft)

 

3.00: Big Bucks has been largely responsible for the positive favourite trends listed below, whilst adding the names of Inglis Drever and Baracouda before the Ditcheat based champion took hold of the event, whereby bookmakers have been knocked around the ring as though they faced Cassius Clay/Mohammed Ali in his prime.  UNOWHATIMEANHARRY has won 10/11 since Harry Fry took charge of his Sir Harry Lewis gelding, winning this race in facile fashion twelve months ago.  I tend to side with horses who contest hurdle races rather than the likes of THISTLECRACK who return to timber following some excellent chasing efforts.  The debate about whether chasing dents the speed of hurdlers will rage on for years after this showdown though either way, experience tells me that hurdlers sticking to the smaller obstacles often offers value for money against ‘superstars’ who have returned to the discipline.  ‘Superstar’ is the right description of THISTLECRACK and no mistake but with Harry’s raider also having fitness on his side, I’ll oppose the favourite on this occasion.  This is anything but a two horse event however, especially with the improving mare COLIN’S SISTER having been declared. 12/1 about Fergal O’Brien’s raider (available with Betfair/Paddy Power/Betvictor) looks fractionally over the top to yours truly, especially with Ladbrokes as short as 8/1, notwithstanding the fact that Fergal’s recent ratio stands at 7/16.  If you fancy the favourite in receipt of six pounds from ‘Harry’, Skybet offer even money about Colin Tizzard’s champion which is barely available on the exchanges at the time of writing. Whatever the result – enjoy!
Favourite factor: 11 of the last 18 favourites have won this World Hurdle ‘trial’, whilst 17 of the last 20 winners were returned at 6/1 or less.  15 of the last 20 market leaders have claimed toteplacepot positions.

Record of the course winners in the Pleacepot finale:

2/2—Unowhatimeanharry (2 x soft)

1/1—Beer Goggles (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/2—Taquin Du Seuil (heavy)

2/2—Thistlecrack (good to soft & soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners on the Newbury card on Friday – followed by five year stats at the track – level stake profits/losses accrued:

5 runners—Paul Nicholls (24/146 – loss of 21 points)

4—Harry Fry (10/49 – loss of 9 points)

4—Alan King (18/142 – loss of 50 points)

4—Ben Pauling (7/26 +2)

4—Dan Skelton (6/50 – loss of 18 points)

3—Nicky Henderson (38/152 – loss of 17 points)

3—Jonjo O’Neill (7/84 – loss of 1 point)

3—Nigel Twiston-Davies (38/152 – loss of 17 points)

3—Oliver Sherwood (5/38 +2)

2—Tom George (5/61 – loss of 28 points)

2—Fergal O’Brien (5/32 – loss of 9 points)

2—Colin Tizzard (10/71 – loss of 19 points)

2—Harry Whittington (3/18 +8)

+ 17 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Doncaster: £63.70 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 4 unplaced

Southwell: This is a new meeting

Chelmsford: This is a new meeting