Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 2.05 Bangor
- 2.20 Catterick
- 2.50 Catterick
- 4.25 Navan
- 5.12 Nottingham
...whilst my own personal settings for the TS report...
...have highlighted the following...
14-day form
course 5-year form
Of all those races above, the one featuring Charlie Appleby's Mischief Magic is the highest-rated, so we're going to look at the 6.30 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 2, A/W 3yo + contest over a right-handed 6f on standard to slow polytrack...
None of these won last time out and only Aramis Grey had a top three finish, but all bar Desert Cop, Baldomero and Misty Grey have at least one win in their recent form lines. Brad The Brief and featured runner Mischief Magic have the benefit of dropping down from runs at Listed class and Group 1 respectively and the latter is a former Group 3 winner.
He hasn't raced for almost 15 weeks, but Baldomero has been off for nearly 18 weeks and Never Just A Dream hasn't been seen of eight months and would probably need the run. As well as dropping in class, Brad The Brief wears cheekpieces for the first time and Mischief Magic runs for the first time since being gelded.
All bar Baldomero have won at this trip already, but he has at least won here at Kempton (Class 2, 1m2f, 17 months ago), whilst Desert Cop, Aramis Grey and Mischief Magic are all course and distance winners, as shown on Instant Expert...
...which suggests that Baldomero might well be outclassed based on a 1 in 10 record at C2 and that Aramis Grey (1/7) might also struggle. From the above, Desert Cop, Mischief Magic and Never Just A Dream are the eye-catchers.
The draw stats from similar past races have suggested that a low draw is preferable...
...along with a willingness to get on with things...
...which looks like more good news for Never Just A Dream...
If we combine the pace & draw stats, we get the following pace/draw heat map...
...where Never Just A Dream would sit in the Mid/Led 15.52% sector, which is probably as good as we're getting for this field...
Summary
Never Just A Dream should be my pick here based purely on the above and at 11/1, he'd make a decent E/W bet. He scores well on Instant Expert, has the best pace profile in the race and is drawn close enough to the lower end to not be adrift, but he hasn't raced since appearing at Meydan eight months ago and tackles polytrack for the first time. Those two negatives even outweigh the booking of James Doyle and stops me from backing him to win.
I suspect the winner will be our featured runner, Mischief Magic. Charlie Appleby's horses are flying right now and this horse is the class horses in the race. He's a former Group 3 winner who drops down from Group 1 to run here, he's easily the highest rated and has won over course and distance. His jockey/trainer combined to win this race two years ago and I expect them to land it again this year.
Sadly, we're not getting rich here, though, as Mischief Magic is currently Even money with Hills (only book open right now). I expected him to be short, but not this short, I was rather hoping for around 6/4, but you can't always get what you want!
Brad the Brief also drops in class and should go well, but 7/2 isn't E/W territory for me.