Tag Archive for: trainer stats

Racing Insights, Wednesday 04/09/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following handful of runners to consider...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Kilbeggan
  • 4.42 Bath
  • 5.03 Southwell
  • 5.30 Kilbeggan
  • 6.45 Hamilton

...giving me a total of eight UK races to choose from, the highest rated of which are a pair of Class 4 handicaps at Bath and Kempton, but Ashariba from the TS report above only faces five rivals, so we're off to the 4.42 Bath from the free list, an 8-runner (fingers crossed for E/W bettors), Class 4, 3yo+ fillies' flat handicap over a right-handed trip of just beyond 1m3½f on good ground that is currently a little softer in places, but the forecast is for dry weather...

None of the eight managed to win last time out, but Ciara Pearl (won two starts ago) and Bas Blue were runners-up, whilst Divine Presence (also a winner two starts ago) and One Glance both finished third. Ciara Pearl has won four of her last eight and five of her last ten, Miss Dolly Rocker won seven races back and Ville Natale won three races ago, but the bottom three runners on the card (One Glance, Bas Blue & Baynoona) are still maidens after 3, 8 and 4 attempts respectively, whilst Spirit of the Bay has lost eight in a row.

The top four of the card (Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence & Ville Natale) are all dropping down from Class 3, as is One Glance who makes both a handicap debut and a turf debut. Spirit Of The Bay and bottom weight Baynoona both step up a class and this will be Baynoona's second run in a handicap but her first run for new handler Susan Gardner.

Five of this field are still three year old, putting four year olds Ciara Pearl and Miss Dolly Rocker alongside the 6yo Spirit Of The Bay as the trio not receiving an 8lbs weight allowance here. Miss Dolly Rocker is also the only runner here to have tackled this trip before (5th of 8, beaten by just over 5L LTO), but four (Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence & Spirit Of The Bay) have raced here at Bath before for a combined 1 win and 4 placed finishes from 8 efforts. Instant Expert shows Ciara Pearl as the one to have scored here, as she landed a Class 5, 1m2f handicap here at the end of April...

Not a great deal to write home about here, which is unsurprising for a field short on wins but Ciara Pearl's Bath win stands out. Spirit Of The Bay's recent poor form has mainly come in this grade and 1 win from 6 isn't great and probably explains why she's now 11lbs below her last win and if truth be told, the place stats don't paint her in much of a better light either...

...but they do look reasonable for Ciara Pearl, Miss Dolly Rocker, Divine Presence and Bas Bleu. One Glance clearly gets the trip, but has yet to run on grass. As for the draw, I expanded the search criteria for distance, going and field size to get a meaningful/workable sample size, but the draw seems inconclusive...

,,,there's not much in it from the win stats, although those drawn highest have fared slightly worse, but it's the lower drawn runners who haven't quite made the frame as often, so I'd not be hanging my hat on the draw data too much here. If we then look at how those 100+ races above were won, a much clearer pattern emerges..

...backed up by the pace/draw heat map...

...which shows that front-runners prevail no matter where they are drawn. We then look back at the field's most recent (or all in One Glance's case) runs to see how they might run here...

...and although we've no out and out front runner here, it wouldn't be a huge leap to suggest that Ciara Pearl (drawn low) might take this on after three prominent runs (or further forward) from her last four.

Summary

Ciara Pearl is the form horse here and drops in class, she's the sole course winner in the field and seemingly most likely from the pace/draw heat map, so she'd be the one for me here.

Bas Blue may well be an 8-race maiden, but has been in the first three home in five of her last six races and came within a neck of landing a 1m4f handicap at Newbury at this grade last time out. A similar run here puts her right in the mix. Divine Presence has been running well of late recently and would be in my thoughts, but for the fact that she's likely to be off the pace and if handling the switch to turf, One Glance is interesting on handicap debut after a pair of third place finishes over 1m4f at Kempton and could be an E/W contender based on these odds at 5pm Tuesday...



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 28/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...and have highlighted just one runner of possible interest...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.15 Catterick
  • 4.05 Musselburgh
  • 5.18 Bellewstown
  • 7.30 Kempton

...and I think I'll have a look at Baraq and the 8.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m3f on standard to slow polytrack...

None of these managed to win their last race, but Baraq did make the frame, when 3rd of 14 over a mile at Southwell at the start of the month. He is however, a 4-race maiden and both South Pole and Liam Swagger have yet to get off the mark too, after three and six attempts respectively. The whole 8-runner field has won just 7 of 46 so far, but have made the frame twenty times (43.5%)

Liam Swagger has only raced in a handicap once before and it's the first crack for South Pole, Niigata and featured runner Baraq. South Pole and Niigata both run for the first time since being gelded and both will sport new equipment; South Pole will be tongue-tied and Niigata will be blinkered.

Niigata also steps up a class here, as does Baraq, but New Chelsea and True Wisdom drop down a level, whilst Into battle drops two classes.

The two who have recently been gelded haven't raced for nine and eleven weeks, but the other half dozen have all had an outing in the last four weeks and both Magico and Into Battle have already won here at Kempton.

Those wins will show below on Instant Expert, but with a field only having seven total wins, we'd better also look at the place stats...

Magico and Into Battle seems the best positioned based on the win stats, albeit off a very small sample size of races. New Chelsea is the most experienced at this level and has made the frame in half of his six defeats, but the concern already is that he always seems to find at least or two runners too good for him and I suppose you can say the same about Liam Swagger at the trip.

Our Draw Analyser says there's little to be gained from being drawn in a particular section of the stalls, although runners in stalls 1 and 2 have relatively poor records, which might not be good news for Into Battle and New Chelsea, but I wouldn't rule any horse out based purely on the draw stats over 1m3f here at Kempton...

Pace, however, is a different story, as hold-up horses have found it really difficult to win from behind here...

Thankfully, we don't seem to have any hold-up types in this race, although Magico was slow away three starts ago...

Summary

So we've an inexperienced field and no real pace or draw bias to help us whittle down the contenders, but New Chelsea has made the frame five times from nine and Baraq has done so three times from four. Into Battle and Magico were the initial standouts from Instant Expert and I think I'd want these four rather than the other four runners in the race.

Into Battle drops two classes here and that might just tip the balance slightly his way, but otherwise I don't think there's that much between the four of them. Perhaps the market as of 5.40pm Tuesday will help...

...or maybe not! Sod's Law seems to have prevailed here; there's no E/W route out for me to hedge my bets and I'd probably agree with the bookies that Baraq might be marginally better than New Chelsea and Magico, but I wouldn't invest too much of your time nor money on this one!



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 21/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 York
  • 6.10 Sligo
  • 7.00 Worcester
  • 7.25 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

...from which I'm going to take a look at James Tate's Endless Power and the 6.50 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

Eleftheria is our only LTO winner and she has two wins and a place from her last four outings. Amphius and Jayyash have both made the first three home in each of their last two runs, although the former is still a maiden after three attempts. Bluelight Bay and Francesi are the only ones without a win in at least seven races (nine and twenty-three to be precise!)

Featured runner and top-weight Endless Power takes a drop in class today, as do Rocking Tree and Quatre Bras, but handicap debutant Amphius and Tiger Beetle are both up a level, whilst Bravo Zulu and Jayyash both run for the first time after recent gelding operations.

I say recent ops, because they both last ran less than eight weeks ago, but only Rocking Tree and Eleftheria have been rested for longer at 61 and 77 days with the others all having had at least one outing in the last 7 (Francesi) to 37 (Amphius) days.

More than half of the field (Amphius, Rocking Tree, Eleftheria, Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras and Jayyash) are still just three years old and they'll get a useful 6lbs weight allowance today.

Amphius is still a maiden, so obviously has no course or distance wins and the other s yet to win at this trip are Rocking Tree, Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras and Tiger Beetle, but Bravo Zulu, Quatre Bras have at least already won here at Kempton over 7f, whilst both Eleftheria and Jayyash are former course and distance winners (LTO for the former and four starts ago for the latter) and this info is contained within Instant Expert below...

...which suggests that Francesi won't like the underfoot conditions and that he and Tiger Beetle might well be out of their depths at Class 4. Francesi also has a poor win record over a mile, as does Bluelight Bay and these win stats point to the winner coming from stalls 2, 4, 7, 8, 9 or 11, but I just want to check the place stats to see if any of those with poor win records have just been unlucky...

...but this graphic says that's not really the case although Francesi has made the frame quite a few times at Class 4 and/or over a mile. If I was being harsh, I'd probably that only five of them standout from those place stats...

Previous similar races here at Kempton have tended to favour those drawn in the lower half (stalls 1-6) of the field...

...which is good news for Eleftheria and Quatre Bras from the Instant Expert quintet above, but will also offer encouragement for Rocking Tree, Francesi, Amphius and Bluelight Bay. That said, I think that race positioning/tactics aka pace might well be a major factor here, for when we look back at those races above, there's a definitive pattern that has formed...

...and it's front runners or prominent racers that we're really looking for, which based on the field's most recent efforts...

...puts Rocking Tree, Bravo Zulu and Quatre Bras in the spotlight. Endless Power shouldn't be too far off the pace either and Eleftheria is interesting. She had two prominent run followed by two hold-up efforts, but did win here over course and distance last time out, despite being held up from a high draw!

Summary

If we consider recent form, weight allowances, course/distance records, Instant Expert and pace/draw, then I think I like Eleftheria and Jayyash slightly more than the rest in what looks like being a tight/tricky contest to call. I doubt either will trade at 8/1 or higher (no odds showing at 4.30pm Tuesday), so I can't go E/W on them and I'd take the filly Eleftheria as my marginal pick, whilst A/W debutant Azahara Palace might be the E/W punt for small change if prices dictate, of course.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 14/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 4.50 Beverley
  • 6.05 Ffos Las
  • 6.50 Gowran Park
  • 7.00 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have sadly only highlighted one runner for Wednesday and even that one isn't going to run...

...so I'll refer back to our free races above, the highest rated of which is the 7.00 Kempton, a 12-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack...

None of the dozen runners here managed to win last time out, but the fast-finisher Atlantic Gamble and bottom weight Ring of Light both made the frame in third place. Atlantic Gamble had actually won his previous four races on the bounce and of his rivals, only Monte Linas, Ernies Valentine, Dutch Kingdom and Achillea have won any of their last five races.

Sennockian, Get the Music On and Ring Of Light all won seven races ago and the latter also scored six races ago, but Al Rufaa, City of York, Ivasecret and Dream Pirate are on losing runs of 9, 7, 8 and 10 races respectively.

The hopes that Dream Pirate and Ivasecret might get back to winning ways aren't helped by the fact that they're up one and two classes respectively here, whilst LTO placers Atlantic Gamble and Ring of Light also step up a level, but Achillea is down a class.

Ivesecret wears a visor for the first time today and it will be Ring Of Light's first outing since recent wind operation, which must have been fairly recent as he, like nine of his eleven opponents, has raced inside the last five weeks. Ernie's Valentine has had just over seven weeks off, which shouldn't be too much of an issue, but it's almost ten months since we last saw Monte Linas finish seventh of eleven runners at Wolverhampton.

Only Al Rufaa and Get The Music On have yet to win over today's trip, but both have won here at Kempton over 7f in the past, whilst the other half dozen previous track winners (Ernie's Valentine, City of York, Dutch Kingdom, Atlantic Gamble, Ivasecret and Ring Of Light) have all won over course and distance, meaning that Instant Expert has a fair smattering of green, particularly on the lower half of the card...

...where Dream Pirate looks most vulnerable, especially over the trip. Ring of Light is interesting here, receiving weight all round and posting some good numbers, but runs off a mark 6lbs lower than his last win, which came over course and distance, albeit back in November 2022 after which he took 17 months off!

The place stats from those races above confirms that Dream pirate is likely to struggle and also adds Ernie's Valentine to my 'also-ran' pile...

...but aside from that pair, I'm not ruling any of these out of contention for making the frame just yet. Perhaps the draw might help do that, as runners in stalls 1-7 seem to have had the upper hand in previous similar contests...

..that have tended to go the way of the order in which the horses run with front-runners faring best and hold-up horses faring worst...

...thereby generating this pace/draw heat map.

If we then look back at this field's most recent outings, we can reproduce those heat maps as follows...

...suggesting that Dutch Kingdom has the best pace/draw make-up for this race.

Summary

Dutch Kingdom was the one who seemed best suited by the draw, previous pace data and ultimately the pace/draw combo. He featured well on Instant Expert, aside from not winning too often at Class 4, but he did win his last A/W outing. Whether he's good enough to win here in unclear, but I'd definitely be interested in him if a suitable price could be gained for an E/W option.

If he's not going to win, then maybe the in-form Atlantic Gamble and his useful 7lbs weight for age allowance is the one to beat. He is reunited with the 5lb claimer who rode him to victory here over course and distance on his last A/W run two starts ago and the pair are two from three together.

The rest of the field seem pretty much of a muchness and the one that I might be tempted to take a chance with might be bottom weight Ring of Light on his return from wind surgery. He was third behind Dutch Kingdom last time out, five weeks ago but is substantially better off at the weights today, so could go well here.

A quick look at the market at 5pm suggests that both Dutch Kingdom and Ring of Light could be decent E/W propositions, especially if your bookie is paying four places...



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 07/08/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.55 Brighton
  • 3.10 Pontefract
  • 4.45 Wexford
  • 6.00 Sligo
  • 6.15 Wexford

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following UK runners for 14-day form...

...30-day form...

... and 1-year course form...

And although Sir Mark Prescott's Godsend runs in one of our free races, that race only has four runners, so we'll switch our sights to Eve Johnson Houghton and her 6 yr old gelding Uncle Dick, who runs in the 3.55 Brighton, a 9-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed mile on good to firm ground...

...a race featuring no LTO winners, although Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all had top three finishes, whilst Sandy Paradise, Lunatick, Optiva Star, Drink Dry and Uncle Dick have each won one of their last seven. Charming Whisper and Buy the Dip are both two from seven and Blenheim Star has won three of his last five, but Dream of Mischief has lost nine on the bounce.

The bottom three on the card, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all step up a level from Class 5, but Charming Whisper drops two classes after finishing 4th of 13 in a Class 2 handicap at Newmarket which followed back to back Class 4 wins.

Sandy Paradise has rested the longest of this group, but has only been off track for six weeks, so we shouldn't have any rustiness there. Most of the field last raced 20-26 days ago, but Buy The Dip was actually in action as recently as Monday of this week at Lingfield!

Drink Dry is the only one yet to win over this type of trip and five of the field (Lunatick, Optiva Star, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star) have all won over course and distance with Uncle Dick winning half a dozen races here over the last two years, according to Instant Expert...

...which shows quite a few of these in a decent light, especially the three lowest in the weights, Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star. Lunatick and Dream of Mischief have struggled to win at Class 4 and also over this trip, so they're probably the weakest so far. They'll run from stalls 7 and 9, so they won't be helped if there's a low draw bias, which we'll check now...

There's actually not that much of an advantage to be gained from the draw, although those drawn centrally have fared marginally better. Pace, however, is a different matter here at Brighton and the further forward you race, the greater the chance of making the frame and ultimately going on to win..

.

Sadly, there's no real pace in the race and I suspect we'll get a falsely run affair which will play into the hands of those who are normally held up for a run, such as Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief if this field's recent races are anything to go by...

I think it might well be left to the likes of Buy The Dip to set the tempo of the race here.

Summary

Sandy Paradise, Dream of Mischief, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star all finished in the first three home last time out, whilst Charming Whisper, Buy the Dip and Blenheim Star all have multiple 'recent' wins under their belts.

Uncle Dick, Buy The Dip and Blenheim Star were probably the picks from Instant Expert , whilst a lack of pace in the race looks like giving and advantage to Charming Whisper, Blenheim Star and Dream Of Mischief, although Buy The Dip might well try to nick a place or even the win from the front if afforded an easy lead.

Based on this précis of my analysis, the three that pop up most in terms of plus points are Blenheim Star, Buy the Dip and Charming Whisper and as of 5pm Tuesday, the field was priced as follows...

..but I think I marginally prefer Blenheim Star to Charming Whisper for the win.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 5.45 Sandown
  • 6.00 Galway
  • 7.10 Galway
  • 7.55 Sandown

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just four runners of possible interest...

...and with two of the four taking each other on in one of our 'free' races, let's head over for a quick look at the 7.55 Sandown, an 8-runner, Class 5, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good ground...

...where both Organic and Dancingwithmyself come here on the back of a win with the former having won three of her last four and the latter is two from four.

Ciara Pearl has lost her last three, but did win three in a row before those defeats, Xiomara ia a four-race maiden, but has been the runner-up in tow of her three Flat races and Winterfair is one from six, having won on the A/W at Wolverhampton on just her second start.

I Love Paris produced her best effort to date when a runner-up (beaten by a short head) at Newbury recently, but she remans a maiden after nine attempts, whilst Worrals has been in the first three home in each of her last five starts, winning once, but Alvesta is another nine-race maiden.

Ciara Pearl actually drops three classes here and Winterfair is down a level too, but Organic steps up one class and also wears cheekpieces for the first time, as Worrals now has a first-time tongue tie in place. We should have no fitness issues as all eight have raced inside the last six weeks with bottom-weight Alvesta turned back out quickest 11 days after finishing 5th of 9 at Newmarket.

She's one of three maidens in the race and of her five rivals who have managed to win a race, Winterfair and Worrals are both yet to score over today's trip, whilst Winterfair's fifth place of ten runners here over 7f on debut back in September is the only time any of these have raced here at Sandown before.

As I suspected based on the above, we get more guidance/assistance from the the place stats on Instant Expert than we do from the win side of things...

...where despite there not being much data available, we can see who has performed better than the others.

Similar past races have favoured runners drawn highest with runners in stalls 6 and 7 winning most often...

From a tactics perspective, it appears that there's no huge advantage in any particular running style, but hold-up horses have won less often...

...and the pace/draw heat map seems to suggest that the draw has more relevance than the pace...

...but let's see how these runners normally approach their races and how they might fit into our pace/draw heat map, shall we...

Summary

Organic won last time out and has won three of her last four. She's one of just three to have won over today's trip and she sits firmly in the green on pace/draw having been drawn in stall 6, so all things considered, she'd be the one for me here.

Dancingwithmyself also won well last out and has a high draw, so she's probably gong to be the main challenge to Organic, whilst if I was to pick a third horse, I'd probably go with Ciara Pearl who was in great form at this level earlier in the season and now drops back down in class.

Only Bet365 had prices out at 4.45pm on Tuesday and here's how they looked...

No column tomorrow (Wednesday) as I'm away at a family funeral, but I'll be back Thursday for a Friday preview as normal.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Lingfield

  • 3.28 Wexford

  • 6.20 Naas

  • 6.45 Leicester

  • 7.05 Salisbury

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated a reasonable sized stack of runners of interest...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...1-year course form...

...and 5-year course form...

It's another low-grade day of racing in the UK,  but we do have two races on our 'free' list that have runners from my TS Report and whilst two runners from the report go in the 2.50 Lingfield race, I think the 6.45 Leicester might be a better race to work with. It's a 7-runner (sadly), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies’ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here’s how they’re due to line up…

This looks (on paper, at least) to be a pretty open contest with several having claims, but only Chicago Gal comes here on the back of a win, having scored at Beverley on Monday. She was a runner-up in her previous race, so she’s in good nick. None of her rivals made the places last time out, but Rock N Roll Pinkie won two starts ago and Dance Time was a winner four races back.

Typical Woman, however, is winless in nine and Maritime Lady is a seven-race maiden (placed just once), whilst both Miss Monte Carlo and Edna E Mode have yet to get off the mark after three races..

LTO winner Chicago Gal steps up a class here, but top-weight Rock N Roll Pinkie and handicap debutant Miss Monte Carlo both drop down a level. Fellow handicap debutant and joint bottom weight Edna E Mode makes a yard debut for Stuart Edmunds, having left Harry Charlton after just three starts.

The other joint bottom-weight, Maritime Lady will wear cheekpieces for the first time and aside from Miss Monte Carlo, the field have all had at least one run in the last month or so; Miss Monte Carlo might need the outing, as she’s been off track for 19 weeks since finishing 4th of 7, beaten by some 16 lengths over 1m3f on the A/W at Southwell in mid-March.

Of the four runners with a career win to their name, only Dance Time has won over today’s trip, whilst the whole field is 0 from 4 here at Leicester with just Chicago Gal making the frame, according to Instant Expert…

...which sadly doesn't give me as much help as I'd hoped it might. The Class 5 records are poor across the board, but Chicago Gal has finished 721 in three starts at Class 6 on the Flat and Rock N Roll Pinkie's results are 171 and she was a Class 4 runner-up back in May.

In past similar races, horses drawn more centrally tend to have fared best,

...particularly stalls 3 to 5 for the win and stalls 2 to 6 for the places, which won't be the best news that connections of Edna E Mode and Typical Woman have had.

Furthermore, those 60-odd races above have suited those willing to set the tempo of the race from the front with leaders winning more often than any other running style, whilst the place stats say that the further forward a horse runs, the better its chances of making the frame, which could be good news for Edna E Mode and Dance Time, based on their last few outings...

Summary

The form horse is Chicago Gal, of course and if she runs here just two days after a comfortable win at Beverley, she'd be the one to beat even if that goes against the data above. After all, she was also a course and distance runner-up two starts ago.

As for another to make the frame, then the stats above point towards Dance Time. She has finished 31253 in her last five, so does tend to be there or thereabouts. She's drawn slap bang centre of the stalls, likes to race prominently and is the only runner in the race to have won over today's trip.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Uttoxeter
  • 4.55 Thirsk
  • 5.20 Killarney
  • 7.50 Killarney
  • 8.10 Yarmouth

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

I'll be honest with you here, Wednesday looks like being one of the worst days of racing that I've seen for a while, but the show must go on. I know we've a couple of TS report runners in the same race, but 15-runner hurdles aren't my bag, so I'll head for the relative 'comfort' of the flat and a quick look at the 8.10 Yarmouth, an 11-runner, Class 6 (I know!), 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight six furlongs on good to soft ground...

None of these come here on the back of a win, but Moreginplease and Porfin were both runners-up after also being placed on their penultimate outings. Bluebells Boy was third recently and a course and distance winner prior to that and only Dion Baker, Fletchers Flight, Moreginplease and Porfin have also had a win in their last five outings.

Bluebells Boy and Munificent are denoted as fast finishers and top weight Dion Baker is the only class mover, dropping down from Class 5. Six-race maiden Melisende now wears blinkers for the first time and Majorelle Blue makes a yard debut for Simon Pearce in what will be just her fifth start and second in handicap company.

She may well need the run after six months off track, as aside from Munificent (last seen ten weeks ago), all her rivals have had at least one outing in the last five weeks.

As you'd expect from such a lowly race, we don't have much in the way of course/distance wins, but Fletcher's Flight and Moreginplease have both own over this trip before, whilst Dion Baker (7f), Munificent (5f) and Enchanted Night (5f) have all won here at Yarmouth in the past, although I should point out that the latter has an overall career record of 1 win in 45 efforts!

We know that Bluebells Boy won over course and distance two starts and nineteen days ago, but Porfin also achieved that feat five weeks ago for his first ever Yarmouth success, according to Instant Expert...

...which doesn't really give us much to work on. Bluebells Boy, Porfin and Munificent probably lead the way here, but the numbers aren't terribly exciting, so I'm hoping to get more from the place stats...

...which, in fairness, are more helpful and do point to some decent efforts being produced. There's not really much on that graphic that would rule any of them out of contention, but Dion Baker, Bluebells Boy, Moreginplease, Porfin, Munificent and Enchanted Night catch the eye most here from stalls 3, 5, 6, 7, 9 and 11. I'm already fairly dismissive of stall 3 Enchanted Night's chances of a second career win on his 46th start, so if there's any draw bias to be had, I'm hoping it's the higher stalls that benefit...

Sadly, that's not quite the case, as lower drawn runners have come out slightly better, but I'm never too convinced about the draw on a straight sprint being as decisive as the pace/tactics might be and in those races above it has been the prominent stalker who has prevailed and if we look at this field's last few efforts...

...it would appear that Dion Baker will set the pace of the race and thus become the target to be picked off by the likes of Porfin, who seems to have the best pace/draw profile here.

Summary

A poor race full of poor runners, but one of them will win and I hope it's Porfin. He won here over course and distance four starts ago and has been a runner-up at Wolverhampton in each of his last two outings, so he's in good nick. He's only 3lbs higher than his last winning mark and scored well on Instant Expert. Tie that in with his seemingly excellent pace/draw profile and he's the one to beat for me here.

On level terms Bluebells Boy is probably the 'best' in the the race, but he's up 7lbs from his own last course an distance win and seems unsuited by the pace/draw. That said, I fully expect him to be in the mix.

Aside from those two, I've little enthusiasm for the others and without seeing a market for the race (it's only 2.40pm Tuesday as I write this), it's hard to suggest an E/W possible, but maybe Moreginplease or Havana Smoke?



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 10/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have actually highlighted quite a list of qualifiers...


...for me to consider. In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.30 Lingfield
  • 2.40 Yarmouth
  • 4.20 Catterick
  • 4.50 Fairyhouse
  • 5.05 Kempton

...giving me a grand total of ten separate UK races to choose from! Of those, the 5.05 Kempton is the highest-rated at Class 2, but a field of thirteen novices with a combined total of twenty-two career races doesn't give much to work from, so the next 'best' is the 5.00 Lingfield, where Roger Varian will look for another course winner with his in-form 3yo gelding Nazron in a 5-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on soft ground...

As you can see, none of them managed to win last time out, but Nazron and McLoven were runners-up, as they both have been three times recently. McLoven, however, is up in class here and is the only runner without a win in seven starts, turning a career start of 2 wins from 4 into his current 2 wins from 11 and he's 0 from 8 on turf.

All five have raced at least once in the last four weeks and Tsunami Spirit is the only one yet to win over this minimum trip, as his sole success was over 6f on the polytrack at Kempton. The 5yr old mare Mary of Modena is the sole non-3yo in the field and has failed to win any of her last five outings, but her win over 6f on good ground here back in May '22 is this field's only course win, according to a fairly-sorry looking Instant Expert...

...from which the takeaways are that we're bereft of Class 4 wins on the Flat, but Mary of Modena (who seems to like soft ground) & Kiss and Run both have a pair of Class 5 wins on turf. McLoven has struggled over this trip, despite having plenty of practice and on these numbers above, it's Mary of Modena edging it and she also has a really good place record under these conditions...

...where McLoven continues to look vulnerable.

We don't have much in the way of data for small field sprints on soft ground here at Lingfield (it is July after all!), but I wasn't really expecting much of a draw bias over a straight 5f anyway, but here's the data we do have..

...which I suppose backs up my thoughts. And if those nine wins have been equally shared amongst the three draw zones, it's a fairly similar story with regards to pace. None of the eight mid-division runners (too small a sample to trust in my opinion) have won, but otherwise, the wins have been shared equally...
...which brings me to the place stats to provide a little guidance and if runners want to make the frame, they're advised (as is often the case over 5f) to get on with it pretty quickly and if we look at this field's recent efforts...
...it looks like McLoven and Mary of Modena will be setting the tempo and the contest and there's a serious danger of Tsunami Spirit being run out of things.

Summary

In a reversal of how I normally summarise, I'm going to start by showing you the market as it stands at 4.30pm Tuesday*...
*odds taken from Hills, the only book open
I can't back Nazron at 11/10 if I rely on the data above, even if he's probably the best in the race and he's in good nick and his yard do well here, there's just no value there for me, you're welcome to disagree, of course. McLoven also looks too short at 3/1 for a horse that is winless in seven and an overall 0 from 8 on the flat and scored poorly on Instant Expert. He does have an ideal pace profile here, of course, but he's still not for me.
The pace looks like it might well rule Tsunami Spirit out of the equation, which effectively leaves me with the two outsiders in the contest if I wanted to place a bet. The truth is that I don't really want to throw much, if any, cash at this one now that I've looked at it, but if I do, it'll probably be a small E/W bet on Mary of Modena. She'd be an unlikely winner, I suppose, but she has won on this track, she scores well on the place element of Instant Expert and will be right u with the pace.
Stranger things have happened!


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Racing Insights, Wednesday 03/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one.

It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

My own personal settings for the TS report are fairly restrictive...

...but have still highlighted the following pair of runners in the same race...

...14-day form...

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for this Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.15 Thirsk
  • 5.05 Tipperary
  • 5.25 Thirsk
  • 6.10 Tipperary

...and I think I'll have a look at the pair of Robert Cowell-trained sprinters in the 7.00 Bath, a 9-runner, Class 6 Classified Stakes (all carry 9st 9lbs, with 3yos receiving 5lbs) over a left-handed 5f on firm ground...

None of these managed to win last time out, but Katar was a runner-up and both Captain Bentley and Wedgewood made the frame. In fact Wedgewood is the only one in the race with a relatively recent win, having scored at Lingfield two months and three starts ago with all her rivals having failed to win any of their last six (or more) races.

Daley T is denoted as a fast-finisher, but as a 12-race maiden with recent finishes of 576785, one might think he's not a fast starter! Call Me The Breeze will wear cheekpieces for the first time here, as she aims to make the frame for the first time after failing to do so in all eight career starts, whilst it's a debut in a visor for La Verite who has gone one better/worse by failing to place in her eight outings.

All bar Zeno (71 days) and Daley T (135 days) have had the benefit of a recent (9-34 days) run and with the whole field carrying 9-9, bar the trio of 3yo's carrying 9-4, it's La Verite who is supposedly best off at the weights with Captain Bentley and Katar joint worst.

That said only Bernard Spierpoint (6 from 55) and Wedgewood (4 from 24) have actually won a race to date, the other seven are a combined 0 from 82. Of those seven, Katar has managed to make the frame in 11 of 32 defeats, but the other half dozen have made the frame just 3 times in 50 total races.

Three of Bernard Spierpoint's six wins and all of Wedgewood's four wins have been over today's trip, but the field is a combined 0 from 12 here at Bath and wit h a field so bereft of winners (all Wedgewood's win have been on the A/W), we're slightly better off skipping straight to the place stats on Instant Expert...

...where as expected Bernard Spierpoint, Katar and Wedgewood are the only ones of note and they'll emerge from the three lowest stalls, but there's very little to be gained from the draw here...

...with the emphasis purely on speed over this fast 5f, it pays to be up with the pace...

...which looks like being more good news for at least a couple of our trio from above...

Summary

Not a race to dwell on, nor one to chuck too much money at, so I've done neither. There's no shying away from which three horses are the most likely to score here and it's the three lowest drawn runners, Bernard Spierpoint, Katar and Wedgewood.

Katar is still a maiden after 32 starts and despite a reasonable 34.4% place strike rate, he's hard to recommend as a win bet. Wedgewood is the most recent winner in the field, of course, but has yet to win on turf, making the frame just once in eleven starts, so almost by default, the pick is Bernard Spierpoint and even he's on a 14-race losing streak, but does have a 40% place record on the Flat.

And for those of you wanting to place an early bet, here's how the market looked at 4.45pm Tuesday...



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/06/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.15 Salisbury
  • 3.35 Carlisle
  • 6.00 Naas
  • 8.00 Naas
  • 8.40 Kempton

My personal preferred settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have yielded the following runners for me to consider...

...from which, the highest-rated is the free offering from Cumbria, the Irish Stallion Farms EBF Eternal Stakes shown on your race cards as the 3.35 Carlisle, a 9-runner Listed race for 3yo fillies over a right-handed 7f on good/good to firm ground that they're watering to stop it going bone dry...

Jabaara is 2 from 6 on the Flat and carries a 3lb penalty for winning a similar listed race at Musselburgh at the start of the month, whilst Key To Cotai also won her last start, albeit a 19-runner, Class 4 handicap just over seven weeks ago. Gaiety Musical was a runner-up (also at Class 4) on debut three weeks ago and Navassa Island was also in the frame, finishing third of thirteen in a 5½f Listed race at Cork just over six weeks ago. The inexperienced Gaiety Musical is the only one without a career win or a win inside seven starts.

So, we already know that both Gaiety Musical and Key To Cotai are making the big step up from Class 4 to Listed class and now we see that the fast-finisher Tierney also makes the same step, despite finishing 8th of 9, beaten by 7 lengths over 6f last time out; which makes this tough! Ahlain also steps up in class, having finished third of five at Class 2 in April and she now runs for the first time since undergoing wind surgery.

Star Music was last home of 16 in the 1000 Guineas just over seven weeks ago on her last run for Richard Hughes, she now wears a hood for the first as she makes a yard debut for James Tate, eased in class. None of the field have raced here at Carlisle before but all bar Gaiety Musical (obviously), Heritage House, Navassa Island and Tierney have already won over 7f...

Top-weight Jabaara looks to be the standout on wins on Instant Expert, but there's not actually a great deal of data to work with if truth be told. Most of them have won on similar ground, but Navassa Island is 0 from 6 at Class 1 and has a poor return over this trip, as do Lexington Belle and Heritage House, but Navassa Island might have been unlucky because she's a regular placer...

...having made the frame in five of her eight starts, including two Group 3 places and two Listed places, so she might be there or thereabouts if she handles the step up in trip to 7f. Key To Cotai also has good numbers, but it looks like the game's up today for Heritage House with the worst results in this field.

Top weight Jabaara is drawn widest of all in stall nine and that has been a problem in similar races here at Carlisle in the past, although if truth be told, I don't think that there's a hugely discernible draw bias...

...with stalls one to eight all having pretty similar records and it might well be race tactics aka pace that decides this one. Those 50-odd races featured above have been tough for hold-up horses with the uphill finish making it difficult to peg back those ahead...

...but the other three running styles have all won plenty of races, but the further forward a horse has raced, the greater has been the chance of a win or a place, which based on this field's most recent efforts...

...suggests that there might well be three of them battling for the early lead. The problem here, of course, is that that might all do too much too soon to grab the early lead, making themselves vulnerable to likes of regular placer Navassa Island and LTO Listed winner Jabaara, even if the pace/draw heat map does support those willing to lead...

Summary

Despite some of the above suggesting a contrary view to mine, I'm fairly certain that this ends up a Jabaara/Navassa Island 1-2 with the form horse beating the perennial placer and I'm not surprised that they're the top two in the market at Evens and 9/2 respectively*

Key To Cotai was next in the betting at 6/1, but she might find the step up in class tough to deal with and if I was tempted to look for an E/W bet, the 9/1 Star Music might be the one. She has been last home in both 2024 starts, but in her defence those races were the Gr3 Fred Darling and the Gr1 1000 Guineas! She's had a change of yard/scenery and will be hooded here, so could end up being the best of the rest; she's certainly got that potential.

*odds taken from Hills (only book open) at 3.25pm Tuesday



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/06/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 6.30 Limerick
  • 8.00 Limerick
  • 8.45 Kempton

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following UK runners...

30-day form...

1-year course form...
and 5-year course form...

Our two 'free' UK races are just lowly Class 5/6 affairs, but there are a handful of Class 4 contests dotted around the country and the one that interests me most is the 4.00 Yarmouth, a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight mile on soft ground..

This looks a pretty open contest if truth be told with only Bold Ribb coming here off the back of a win. That is tempered by the fact that this win was way back in October, on the A/W, off a mark 6lbs lower than today and at a class below this one. Otherwise, all great!

Elsewhere Baltimore Boy and Magic Memories made the frame on their last runs, whilst Lough Leane’s fifth of seven at Newmarket ended a run of five straight wins. That defeat was at a higher grade than today and he now drops a class, as does Magic Memories, whilst top-weight Diderot is down two classes. Baltimore Boy is on a losing streak of eight races now and he’s the only runner here not to win any of their last six races.

We know Bold Ribb hasn’t been seen for over seven months, whilst Diderot has had almost eleven weeks to rest and Lady of Arabia’s last run was six weeks ago. Aside from the trio, the other half-dozen runners all raced in the past 20-24 days with Baltimore Boy, Nap Hand and Lakota Brave finishing 3rd, 5th and 9th at this class/trip in the same Kempton race three weeks ago.

None of this field have won here at Yarmouth before, mind you only Bold Ribb (6th of 10 last September) and Lough Leane (3rd of 10, a year ago) have raced on this track, but all bar Nap Hand and Bold Rigg have won over today's trip...

We've not got much in the way of soft ground from/experience aside from Magic Memories 1 win from 6, in fact most of these have done their running on good ground or quicker, so this might be a shock today. Lady of Arabia and Lough Leane are the ones with the best records at this trip, whilst the place stats...

...do give some of the others some hope. In cases like these , I tend to want runners to have at least two of going/class/course/distance in green, so from the above the ones 'better' suited to the conditions might be Lakota Brave, Magic Memories, Bold Ribb, Lady of Arabia and Lough Leane, giving me runners in stalls 1, 3, 4, 6 and 8, so I'm hoping that if there's a draw bias that it favours those drawn lowest!

That said, it's a straigh mile on soft ground, so I'm not expecting the draw to make a huge amount of difference and whilst there is a bit of a drop off in the win percentage for those drawn higher...

...there's not a great deal in it and the place stats look pretty even across the board, suggesting that in a small number of races, those drawn high might have been unlucky. Generally here at Yarmouth, it's all about pace and doing your work early, but the ground is usually good to form or quicker, so we'll need to check the above soft ground races to see what tactics might work best...

...and it's a bit of a mixed bag to be honest, but if pushed I'd want a hold-up horse based on those stats alone and if we consider the field's last few runs, this could be good news for the likes of Magic Memories and Nap Hand...

That, of course is based on taking pace in isolation, but we really should look at ho pace and draw are intertwined and we do this via our unique heat map...

...which suggests that in the absence of any real front-runner, Leuven Power, Nap Hand and Magic Memories might be best positioned.

Summary

From the above analysis, many names have cropped up and there's only three I've doubts about and that's Bold Ribb (lay-off and class/weight rise), Diderot and Lady of Arabia who became non-runners during the write-up process!

Of the remaining six runners, all have a really good shout of making the frame, but the one I like best from a win perspective would be Magic Memories. He has gone well on soft ground and gets the trip, plus he fared well on the pace/draw heat map.

Magic Memories was the 11/4 jt fav with Hills at 2.30pm UK time alongside Leuven Power and from those still in my eye, only Lakota Brave's 17/2 price was what I'd deem backable from an E/W perspective, that would be my place angle here, although it looks that tight that any of them could make the frame.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 05/06/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.40 Newton Abbot
  • 4.10 Newton Abbot
  • 6.10 Kempton
  • 7.00 Curragh

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

And with Francesco Baracca, Muttasil and Marmaduke Lemon from the TS report all taking each other on, I think I'll have a look at their race, the 4.27 Nottingham, a 13-runner, Class 5, 3yo flat handicap over a left-handed trip just 15yds shy of 1m½f after a 20yd rail movement. The going is set to be good and here's the card...

An inexperienced field with an average of under 5 races each (61 total races between the 13 of them), but Double Jump, Phoenix Passion, Francesco Baracca, Ribble Radiant and Roman Secret have all won at least one race with Phoenix Passion having won three of his eight starts and he comes here on a hat-trick, whilst Roman Secret also won last time out; Muttasil and Seamore are the only two yet to make the frame after 4 and 3 efforts respectively.There's plenty of changes according to the card, as we see Double Jump, Marmaduke Lemon and Francesco Baracca dropping down a class, whilst Ribble Radiant is down two steps. It's also handicap debut day for Marmaduke Lemon, Drink Dry, Seamore and Baynoona, who also runs for Harry Charlton for the first time today. Francesco Baracca and Muttasil run in handicap company for just the second time. We've also a couple of runners trying new headgear out with Drink Dry and Ribble Radiant wearing cheekpieces and a tongue tie respectively.

Only three of these, Seamore, Roman Secret, Great Chieftain have raced here before with all three failing to win their sole visit, but Roman Secret and Great Cheiftain did at least make the frame. We also don't have much in the way of wins at this trip, but Roman Secret, Phoenix Passion and Francesco Baracca have all managed to do it...

We don't get much help from the win side of things, but that's hardly surprising from a field that has won just 7 of 61 races so far, especially when Instant Expert eyecatcher Phoenix Passion is 3 from 8! Roman Secrtet looks next best, but it's a low bar and I think we're going to need to check the place stats...

These are more helpful, even if only to consolidate Phoenix Passion's position. Drink Dry, Francesca Barraca and Roman Secret (2nd best so far) also have multiple places in one or more category and after eliminating any of them without any green in either going, class, course or distance from the place graphic, I'm only taking these forward to draw analysis...

...and they're pretty much spread across the track, so I need to see if there's anything to be had from the draw in this type of contest...

I wouldn't say that there was a huge draw bias at play here, but stalls 4-6 have good win records, as does stall 11, so could be more good news for Phoenix Passion, as well as Drink Dry, Great Chieftain and Marmaduke Lemon, whilst there seems to be even less of a bias in the place stats.

It's a totally different story when it comes to pace, though, as horses running in mid-division or further back have struggled to win under these conditions...

...whilst leaders have gone well, but have seemed vulnerable to the prominent stalking types. That said, I'd rather be on an out and out front-runner than a back marker here and based on the field's last three outings (because some only have three to choose from!)...

Roman Secret looks like the pace-setter here with the likes of Show Biz Kid, Phoenix Passion and Ribble Radiant the ones in closes attendance. I'd also expect Seamore and Muttasil to be fairly close to the pace too in what could be a trappy affair.

Summary

The one horse whose name keeps popping up is Phoenix Passion and he has to be my pick here. I'm not surprised to see him installed as the early (3.40pm Tuesday) favourite with Bet365, but I was rather hoping for a little more than 10/3, but beggars can't be choosers.

Elsewhere, Roman Secret also won last time out and was my 2nd best from Instant Expert, he's likely to set the pace here and if she's race-fit after a 201-day layoff, she could be one for the E/W bettors amongst us at a current price of 8/1.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/05/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.00 Yarmouth
  • 4.40 Warwick
  • 8.10 Southwell
  • 8.20 Gowran Park

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated just two possible runners of interest...

...and it's the latter that I'm going to look at today.

Liseo runs in the 8.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (it was 7 but Believe In Stars has been withdrawn), Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on standard to slow polytrack...

DAVIDEO drops in class here for his first run in 222 days, during which time he has been gelded. His last win was four starts and ten months ago over today's trip at Newmarket and he now runs on the A/W for just the second time, having been a four-length runner-up here at Kempton over a mile back in November 2022.

CANNON ROCK also drops in class after a disappointing 10th of 11 (22 lengths down) over 1m6f at Newmarket earlier this month, but did win over today's trip on the A/W at Southwell in March, three starts ago, although he was only 6th of 14 here over 1m3f in April.

LISEO is the only course winner in the race, having won here over 1m3f at the start of April on his last A/W outing. He's far better on the A/W than the Flat, having won two of five in 2024 so far. Up in class today, but did get to within 1.25 lengths of the winner in a Class 2 here over 1m3f in November.

ARTISAN DANCER is anther better suited to the A/W (5 wins and 10 further places from 21) than the Flat (unplaced in 7) and was a winner at Wolverhampton five starts ago in early February. He's a consistent placer, so I suspect he'll be in the mix once again.

APPIER is four from nine on the A/W, but it's almost a year since his last win (at Lingfield six starts ago). He raced at Ascot 11 days ago after a six-month break and looked like he needed the run in an eight-length defeat.

IMPHAL makes a yard debut for Paddy Butler today and makes a first non-NH appearance since early July 2019 and a first A/W outing since finishing fourth or eight here at Kempton over two miles way back in August 2018. I'm not sure what the plan is here for this 10 yr old, but he's probably best left watched today.

Instant Expert...

...says Liseo on standard to slow and Kempton (one and the same, of course), whilst Appier's A/W record over the trip is excellent. The place stats...

...say pretty much the same thing, but also show Artisan Dancer as another possible for the frame.

There's rarely a draw bias on the A/W in small fields over trips of this length and this is no exception either...

...I suppose stalls 4 & 5 have placed more often, but there's not a great deal to be gleaned from those numbers above. It's a slightly different story when it comes to assessing pace, though, as those willing to set the tempo of the races have seemed to shade it...

...which would be really helpful if we had a runner keen to take it on. Sadly, this looks like being a falsely run race with none of the six seeming keen to lead the way if their more recent efforts are anything to go by...

Summary

Unusually for an A/W contest, we've little/no help from either draw or pace, but we do have some useful data on Instant Expert, we know who is and who isn't in form and we have the info from the TS report.

So based on what we do have, it's the sole course winner, in-form Liseo from the TS report. Horse and yard do well here and Hills' (only book open at 3.15pm Tuesday) 9/2 looks more than fair.

The 3/1 Artisan Dancer is probably my next best, but if you wanted an outsider who could go better than the odds might suggest, then the 15/2 about Appier is interesting.



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/05/2024

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.45 York
  • 5.10 Sligo
  • 6.15 Sligo
  • 6.22 Perth
  • 6.40 Bath

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have highlighted the following runners...

...from which we should really go to York! However, I'll leave the Musidora (3.45 race) to those better qualified elsewhere on the site and the two Jack Channon horses go in fields of 14 and 22. One of those is pushing my comfort zone boundaries and one is way beyond, so taking the lesser of two evils, I'll go with the 2.15 York, a 14-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground...

I actually picked Jack Channon's runner, Flash Bardot as my winner for last Saturday's Racing Insights, but she was withdrawn. She still arrives here as one of just two LTO winners (Crystal Delight being the other) in the field and this sole mare has won three of her last four. Elsewhere Chillingham, Two Brothers and bottom weight Lightening Company were all in the frame, but the latter is winless in nine races and Chillingham has lost eight on the bounce (placed five times, though) since three wins and a place from his first five starts. The rest of the field have all won at least one of their last seven.

Klondike's last run was group 3 race at Newbury, so he's down in class here for his handicap debut, but Flash Bardot, Two brothers and Saratoga Gold all step up from Class 3. Chillingham wears cheekpieces for the first time today and it'll be Percy Shelley's debut in a hood.

Most of the field have had at least one outing since the start of April whilst Track of Time (on handicap debut today) and Oneforthegutter were last seen in January. Marhaba The Champ and top-weight Klondike, however, are returning from respective breaks of 230 days and 270 days, during which they were both gelded and Klondike had wind surgery.

Klondike is one of six yet to win over this trip, along with Track of Time, Westerton, Crystal Delight, Percy Shelley and Lightening Company, whilst of the eight runners to have raced at York before, only Marhaba The Champ, Kihavah and Two Brothers have won here. All three are former course and distance winners and Marhaba The Champ has also scored over 1m2½f here, whilst Kihavah's five efforts over track and trip have finished 16511 and it's two of this trio of CD winners that stand out on Instant Expert...

Track of Time makes a UK debut here and Westerton looks weak (1 from 6) at this grade and is rated some 14lbs higher than his last turf win. Crystal delight has fared better on good ground and standard A/W surfaces. Chillingham's three career wins have been at Classes 3, 4 and 5 and the same applies to Saratoga Gold, whilst Oneforthegutter would prefer it softer and he has struggled in this grade.

The bookies will pay four (some will pay five) places here, so the place stats might be more than useful...

...and if I apply my usual "at least two greens from the first four columns" rule, I'm left with these in draw order...

I've put them in draw order, because I now want to see if past similar races have benefited any particular part of the stalls, so let's check our draw analyser...

...which unsurprisingly (to me, anyway) suggests there's little in it and that's really how it should be. Over a mile and a half, the trip is easily long enough to unwind any potential draw bias and it's more likely to be race tactics and ability that determine the outcome, so with that thought in mind, let's run those 40-odd past races through our pace analyser, which tells us that...

...those who bide their time do best. We log the way horses run in the UK and allocate them 4pts if they led, 3pts for a prominent run, 2pts for those in mid-division and 1pt for a hold-up run, so we're really looking for horses who might run to a score of 2.50 or lower here and based on their last few efforts...

...you could still make a case for all of them. If I then refer back to how the pace has interacted with the draw, there's one combination that stands out...

...directing us to those drawn highest from our shortlisted runners.

Summary

In racecard order, my original thoughts were that I'd be looking at the likes of Klondike, Marhaba The Champ, Crystal Delight and Chillingham and all four remain on my shortlist. With both Klondike and Crystal Delight being drawn high, I'll keep those two for now. Marhaba The Champ and Kihavah were the eyecatchers from the win side of Instant Expert, so the former remains on my list and the latter now joins it, leaving me with Chillingham to consider and whilst I don't see him as a winner here, there's no reason based on his place form why he can't make the frame for the seventh time in nine flat races.

I'm aware that I've ended with five runners that I feel are capable of making the frame and I could easily have added a couple more, but some firms will pay five places, so let's look at the market, as of 4pm Tuesday...

...from here, I'd be inclined to side with Marhaba The Champ as my winner with small E/W plays for Kihavah and Chillingham, as I impose my 8/1 minimum odds rule. That said, Crystal Delight might well drift and become of interest again 😉



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