Saturday's pick was...
3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)
Monday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG
...in a 13-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...
Why?...
We'll start with the racecard...
...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.
Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...
- 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
- 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
- 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
- 2 wins from 3 in 2020
- 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
- 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
- and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance
And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...
...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...
- 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
- 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
- 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
- 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
- 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
- 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
- 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
- and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...
...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...
...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...
...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!