Tag Archive for: Leicester Racecourse

Racing Insights, Wednesday 24/07/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.50 Lingfield

  • 3.28 Wexford

  • 6.20 Naas

  • 6.45 Leicester

  • 7.05 Salisbury

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated a reasonable sized stack of runners of interest...

...14-day form...

...30-day form...

...1-year course form...

...and 5-year course form...

It's another low-grade day of racing in the UK,  but we do have two races on our 'free' list that have runners from my TS Report and whilst two runners from the report go in the 2.50 Lingfield race, I think the 6.45 Leicester might be a better race to work with. It's a 7-runner (sadly), Class 5, 3yo+ fillies’ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m4f on good to firm ground and here’s how they’re due to line up…

This looks (on paper, at least) to be a pretty open contest with several having claims, but only Chicago Gal comes here on the back of a win, having scored at Beverley on Monday. She was a runner-up in her previous race, so she’s in good nick. None of her rivals made the places last time out, but Rock N Roll Pinkie won two starts ago and Dance Time was a winner four races back.

Typical Woman, however, is winless in nine and Maritime Lady is a seven-race maiden (placed just once), whilst both Miss Monte Carlo and Edna E Mode have yet to get off the mark after three races..

LTO winner Chicago Gal steps up a class here, but top-weight Rock N Roll Pinkie and handicap debutant Miss Monte Carlo both drop down a level. Fellow handicap debutant and joint bottom weight Edna E Mode makes a yard debut for Stuart Edmunds, having left Harry Charlton after just three starts.

The other joint bottom-weight, Maritime Lady will wear cheekpieces for the first time and aside from Miss Monte Carlo, the field have all had at least one run in the last month or so; Miss Monte Carlo might need the outing, as she’s been off track for 19 weeks since finishing 4th of 7, beaten by some 16 lengths over 1m3f on the A/W at Southwell in mid-March.

Of the four runners with a career win to their name, only Dance Time has won over today’s trip, whilst the whole field is 0 from 4 here at Leicester with just Chicago Gal making the frame, according to Instant Expert…

...which sadly doesn't give me as much help as I'd hoped it might. The Class 5 records are poor across the board, but Chicago Gal has finished 721 in three starts at Class 6 on the Flat and Rock N Roll Pinkie's results are 171 and she was a Class 4 runner-up back in May.

In past similar races, horses drawn more centrally tend to have fared best,

...particularly stalls 3 to 5 for the win and stalls 2 to 6 for the places, which won't be the best news that connections of Edna E Mode and Typical Woman have had.

Furthermore, those 60-odd races above have suited those willing to set the tempo of the race from the front with leaders winning more often than any other running style, whilst the place stats say that the further forward a horse runs, the better its chances of making the frame, which could be good news for Edna E Mode and Dance Time, based on their last few outings...

Summary

The form horse is Chicago Gal, of course and if she runs here just two days after a comfortable win at Beverley, she'd be the one to beat even if that goes against the data above. After all, she was also a course and distance runner-up two starts ago.

As for another to make the frame, then the stats above point towards Dance Time. She has finished 31253 in her last five, so does tend to be there or thereabouts. She's drawn slap bang centre of the stalls, likes to race prominently and is the only runner in the race to have won over today's trip.



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Racing Insights, Saturday 27/04/24

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Saturday's free feature is the Trainer/Jockey Combo (TJC) report, which works by bringing together the form of trainers and jockeys into a single composite report that has produced excellent results for users. Basically, some trainers turn to specific riders when they have one ‘ready to win’ and this report quickly identifies the most profitable of those combinations. Clicking on any row will reveal the entries for that trainer/jockey pairing whilst clicking on the entry will open the race in a new tab.

HINT: Look for a good sample size – ideally five or more – combined with a decent win percentage (30%+), and a positive figure in the profit column and as ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

My own settings for the TJC Report look like this...

...and they have generated the following runners for me to look at...

In addition to those as always, we have a list of fully functional 'free' racecards each day, which for Saturday cover...

  • 2.05 Leicester
  • 2.37 Leicester
  • 3.20 Haydock
  • 3.27 Navan
  • 3.35 Sandown
  • 6.10 Doncaster

The three Sandown races above are decent quality, but have too many runners for my liking, but there are still a couple of Class 2 handicaps to choose from and at the risk of not Looking for Lynda in the 5.50 Ripon, I've opted for the 2.05 Leicester, a 9-runner, Class 2, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed mile (plus fifty-three yards) on soft ground that will be heavy in places...

None of the nine managed to win last time out, but Thunder Roar was a half-length runner-up at Doncaster for his fifth successive top-three finish (inc two wins). Bottom weight Big Bear Hug was third for the second race in a row and she has a win and three places from her last five. Dashing Roger is two from four, Look Back Smiling is two from three and Magic Memories was a winner three starts ago.

Big Bear Hug's excellent recent form has all been at Class 5 and she's up three classes here, which will make life much tougher, as will the two-class rise for Selwan who runs for Ian Williams for the first time today. Al Mubhir won this race last year and now steps down in class to defend his crown off a mark 7lbs higher than last year in his first outing since being gelded.

Four of this field raced against each other to varying shades of defeat a week ago and two last raced five weeks ago. Selwan had had a two-month rest, but Al Mubhir hasn't been seen f0r over twenty weeks. Miss Cantik makes a UK debut today some 154 days since finishing 11th of 18 in 1m2f Listed contest at Fontainebleau. Prior to that run she was two from two over a mile and was a Listed class runner-up over 1m1f at Longchamp.

Al Mubhir's not the only course and distance winner in the field though, as Big Bear Hug also acheived the feat almost a year ago, albeit in a Class 6 handicap off a mark some 19lbs lower than today! Raadobarg, Miss Cantik (who wears a hood for the first time today), Look Back Smiling and Magic Memories have all also scored at this trip, whilst Raadobarg and Look Back Smiling have also both won on this track over 7f...

Dashing Roger has struggled to win races over the last couple of years, even if he did win three and four starts ago. Prior to those two wins, he hadn't won any of eleven since August 2021, so whilst he's two from four, he's also two from fifteen! Thunder Roar will be suited by the soft ground and he's also a former heavy ground winner, as is Al Mubhir. Al Mubhir has struggled to win Class 2 races despite winning this one a year ago and Look Back Smiling's win record over today trip is pretty poor at just 1 win from 8 and the place stats show that he only made the frame in 2 of the 7 defeats...

...stats that put Dashing Roger out of my consideration for now. Al Mubhir won this last year, of course, but his number don't really suggest a repeat performance and the takeaway from this place data would be Thunder Roar, who finds himself drawn out in stall eight with only Raadobarg outside him, which is a bit of a worry because last year's race was won from stall 1 and our draw analyser suggests that stalls 1 to 5 are the place to be here...

...with those 91 races being dominated by horses who like to lead...

...so much so that the running style/pace of the race seems more important the draw today, as suggested by our pace/draw heat map...

We can then look at how our field have approached their last few races...

...and from this, I suspect that Al Mubhir and Dashing Roger will be the ones most likely to take the race on.

Summary

Mid to high-drawn front runners are supposedly the ones to back here and last year's winner Al Mubhir fits that bill nicely. He's also a fairly short favourite for such a competitive race, but I just don't get it/him today. I'm sure he'll give a good account of himself, but he's 7lbs higher than year and hasn't won since and with this being a stronger renewal, I just can't back him at these (Friday 5.15pm) odds...

...and I think Thunder Roar offers me more value at 9/2, whilst Look Back Smiling seems like a decent E/W prospect at 8/1.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 27/02/24

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...where we've a couple of "15's" that must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.35 Leicester
  • 2.50 Catterick
  • 3.20 Catterick

And of the two "15's", Cat Tiger's race is the highest-rated so let's look at the 4.35 Leicester, a 7-runner, Class 3, 6yo+ Hunter Chase over almost 2m7f after rail movements. It's a right-handed track and here are the runners set to tackle 18 fences on heavy ground...

None of these seven managed to win last time out under Rules, although Espoir de Tellee does come here off the back of a win in a 3m point to point on soft ground 23 days ago, whilst Benny's King was a runner-up (albeit 15L behind the winner) at Wetherby a day earlier. Shang Tang has made the frame in each of his last two, but neither Percussion nor Hardline have won any of their last seven (9 & 23 repectively to be precise)

The top three on the card all ran at Class 5 on their last course outing, so are up two classes, but Percussion drops down two after finishing 5th of 14 at Class 1, having made the frame at both Classes 1 & 2 in his two previous runs. The last horse on the card, Shang Tang moves up one class here and Gallyhill makes a debut under Rules for his new trainer, although he did run in a PTP five weeks ago for this handler.

Espoir de Tellee won this race off today's mark last year and Cat Tiger landed it in 2021, so they're both former course and distance winners, but none of their rivals have won here before (mind you, only Percussion has been here) and only Benny's King has won over a similar trip, landing a 2m6½f chase at Newbury.

Instant Expert doesn't have much relevant data for this one...

...but it does highlight the two former winners' suitability and poses questions about Gallyhill's record at Class 3 and that of Percussion over 2m6f to 3m, although a deeper dig suggests that his place form is rock solid...

The last three renewals of this race have been won by horses racing prominently or setting the pace and more generally speaking here at Leicester that has proven to be the case in 5-9 runner, 2m5f-3m chases on soft/heavy ground...

...which based on the field's most recent efforts would put the likes of Hardline and Shang Tang at a severe disadvantage...

Summary

Hardline and Shang Tang don't look well suited by the pace stats here and the former has forgotten how to win, whilst the latter would prefer a shorter trip. I'll add Gallyhill to this list of discards based on both his more recent racecourse form and the heavy PTP defeat he suffered last time out.

That leaves me with four (Benny's King, Cat Tiger, Espoir de Tellee and Percussion) to choose from and the truth is that any of the four could win or make the frame, so I'd be wanting a bit of value if I'm putting money down on a fairly tight contest. With that in mind, it's time to look at the 5.30pm market, which looks like this...

I can understand why Percussion is favourite after some decent efforts at a higher grade of late, but I'm not keen on backing 5/2 favourites who have managed to find at least one too good for thm in each of their last nine outings. he might well be the best in the race, but I'm not on at 5/2. Cat Tiger is the next in the market from my list and similarly, he also lacks value at 7/2. Yes, he loves it here and won the race three years ago, but hasn't won a race for 25 months and hasn't competed a race for 15 months, so I'll pass on him too, leaving me with last year's winner Espoir de Tellee at 11/2 and Benny's King at 13/2.

I'm tempted to back Espoir to retain the race and to go E/W on Benny's King. Sure, I'd prefer 8/1 (my normal E/W threshold) about the latter, but it's only a 7-runner race.

Please Note : No column tomorrow (Tuesday), as I'm away at my father in law's funeral, but I'll be back Wednesday for a Thursday race preview.

 



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Racing Insights, Wednesday 31/01/24

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Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.10 Exeter
  • 2.35 Dundalk
  • 2.45 Exeter
  • 4.45 Exeter

30-day form...

course 1-year form...

...and I think we'll see how in-form Tom Lacey might get on with Nocte Volatus in the 3.55 Leicester, a 7-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase over a right handed 2m4f on soft ground...

Only Sheldon managed to win last time out, but both Grandad's Cottage and Nocte Volatus made the frame, but the latter is the only runner in the race without a win in his last four starts, having been beaten in each of his last ten since winning at Huntingdon almost eleven months ago.

LTO winner Sheldon is our only class mover, stepping up a level from his Boxing Day Wincanton triumph, whilst top-weight Grandad's Cottage wears a tongue-tie for the first and it'll be bottom-weight Will Sting's first outing since recent wind surgery.

Jet Plane, Another Crick, Oxygen and Will Sting have all had one unsuccessful run at this track, but all of the field bar Jet Plane have won over today's trip, according to the racecard and this is confirmed by Instant Expert who highlights Grandad's Cottage as being the one best suited by conditions...

Oxygen is 2 from 2 on Good to Soft ground, which is good to know in case the track dries out any by race time. Jet Plane would like that to happen too and Nocte Volatus' record at class/trip is typical of his overall form, where he has won just 3 of 24 career starts, but has made the frame in 8 of 15 over fences...

...making him a regular E/W prospect under similar conditions, whilst Jet Plane, Will Sting and Sheldon look vulnerable on the above data. If recent performances are anything to go by, then Grandad's Cottage and Jet Plane might well take a back seat in the early stages whilst the others scrap it out up front...

...although Sheldon and Oxygen don't normally get involved very early despite doing so last time out and sitting back might well be the best option for those with hopes of winning...

...although leaders do often holds on for a place.

Summary

Short and sweet today, hopefully. Nocte Volatus doesn't win often enough and is on a long losing run. Jet Plane, Will Sting and Sheldon look vulnerable on Instant Expert, where Another crick looks more like a placer than a winner, which leaves me with top-weight Grandad's Cottage and Oxygen as the two I probably like best here.

Oxygen is 6lbs higher than his last win and was well beaten off this mark last time out, whilst Grandad's Cottage is effectively 5lbs lower than his last win, thanks to his jockey's claim and whilst only third of six last time around, that looks a better race than the Novice event Oxygen lost by 22 lengths, so I'll take the 7/2 (Bet365 & Hills at 4pm) Grandad's Cottage to beat the 3/1 (Hills) fav Oxygen here.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 10/10/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...

...with all three seeming worth a second glance if nothing else, whilst as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 2.12 Leicester
  • 4.10 Punchestown
  • 4.20 Huntingdon
  • 4.32 Leicester
  • 5.30 Huntingdon

And the highest rated of the UK races above is the 4.32 Leicester, an 11-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a right-handed 1m2f on good to soft ground that will be better in palces...

Top weight Box to Box won last time out and has two wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five outings, whilst Forceful Speed has won three on the bounce and is five from his last eight. Kitsune Power and The City's Phantom are the only ones without a win in their visible formline.

Forceful Speed is up a class here, though, as is fast finishing Fantasy Believer, whilst Beraz, Kitsune Power and James McHenry all drop down a level. Beraz, Chelsea Green, James McHenry and Zirhab have yet to win over today's trip, but the latter has won here over a mile; Kitsune Power is the only other previous course winner, having scored over 7f back in April 2022.

Five of this field (Chelsea Green, Forceful Speed, James McHenry, Intricacy and Ziryab) recieve a 4lb weight allowances as three year olds, whilst the last three of thse five listed are running for the first time since being gelded. That said, Ziryab's 81-day absence is the longest of all eleven runners with six of his opponents having raced in the last four weeks.

Instant Expert says...

...that plenty of these have shown an aptitude/liking for one or more of today's expected conditions without too many alarm belles ringing in my head. On the basis of the above, Box To Box looks well suited, despite a 3lb weight rise and Forceful Speed will certainly get the trip. The place stats from those races above looks like this...

...where again Box To Box looks the one to beat. Intricacy scores well here too, of course. He's drawn right out in stall 11 of 11, but past similar contests suggest that this wouldn't necessarily ruin his chances...

...as it's the lower end of the draw that seems to have come out worst, although that's not totally bad news for Ziryab in stall 1, as the following breakdown shows...

All of which tempts me to say that the draw might well play second fiddle to the pace of the contest in determining who wins here and if we look at those races above, the data says that you don't want to be dawdling early on...

...which would suit up to a half-dozen of these, based on the way they've approached their last four races...

Summary

The obvious starting point for me has to be Box To Box. He's in great form, scored well (the best) on Instant Expert, is drawn high enough not to be classed as a low draw and will set the tempo of the contest. He's currently 8/1 wit Betfair/PP, so that's an E/W bet in my eyes.

Whether he wins or not might well depend on how close Forceful Speed sticks to him. This 3yr old is flying right now, having won his last three and is unpenalised for his last success; a similar run here makes him difficult to beat and the market reflects this with him being the 3/1 fav.

These are the two that interest me the most and I don't see there being too much between them. As for another runner for the frame, I'd probably side with the 5/1 Intricacy. He's in good nick, has the eight allowance and Instant Expert says he's a regular placer. He's too short for an E/W bet in my eyes, but I expect him to be in the mix.



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Racing Insights, Tuesday 06/06/23

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The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here is Tuesday's Shortlist...

...but none of those really stand out, aside from two taking each other on at Leicester.. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...

  • 3.30 Leicester
  • 5.20 Southwell
  • 6.45 Wetherby
  • 7.35 Lingfield

...and as luck would have it, The Shortlist race from Leicester is on our 'free' list, so it'd be rude not to look at the 3.30 Leicester after all! It's a 9-runner (poss E/W options?), Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a straight 7f on good to firm ground...

Thapa VC is the only LTO winner here, but Maxi Boy, Ernie's Valentine, Makeen, Touchwood and Royal Musketeer all recorded top=three finishes. Thapa VC is 2 from 3 and the only one in the field with a win from their last five outings and is denoted as a fast finisher, but he's also our only class riser.

The top five on the card are all down in class by at least one grade with Golden Spice and Above both dropping down two levels and the former runs for the first time since a wind op, whilst the other Shortlist horse, Amber Island wears first-time cheekpieces and these two from the Shortlist are the only females in the race.

All bar two of the field have raced in the past three weeks, but Golden Spice has had a three month break, whilst Maxi Boy hasn't been seen since mid-September 2021 and may well need the run. Above, Makeen, Thapa VC and Royal Musketeer have all won over 7f elsewhere, but our shortlist horses, Golden Spice & Amber Island are both course and distance winners; Ernie's Valentine has also won here, landing a 5f novice event on debut two years ago.

In addition to the above, Instant Expert tells us that all bar Golden Spice and Above have won on good to firm and that we've five previous Class 4 turf winners...

Maxi Boy who might need the run has yet to win at this trip and Above would prefer to be running on the All-Weather. Makeen's Class 4 form probably looks better from a place perspective, but Royal Musketeer just really looks up against it today. Let's check those place stats, because they suggest that the majority of these would be entitled to at least challenge for a place in the frame...

...Royal Musketeer aside, that is! A slight nagging doubt re: Golden Spice on good to firm ground, but there are some pretty solid place stats here for a race that has previously suited those draw lowest...

...which is another tick for 'form horse' Thapa VC. Those races highlighted above have not only favoured those drawn lowest, but also those racing most prominently...

Unfortunately for Thapa VC, his last four runs suggest that he's likely to be waited with...

...and his last two wins have both been from the back over 7f. He is, however, noted as a fast finisher and closed in quickly enough to win on good to fork last time out, so although his pace profile isn't ideal, he could still win. Conversely Golden Spice looks to have the 'best' pace makeup here, but runs from the widest stall, so she's in a similar dilemma to Thapa VC.

The best pace/draw combination here over 7f at Leicester on good to form ground has actually been a low drawn, mid-divisional runner...

so that's not a million miles from where we've got Thapa VC...

...but Amber Island scores well here in a race where the pace/draw hasn't really benefited any of them.

Summary

There's a lack of pace here and this could lead to a falsely run race with runners waiting for others to make a move and if this happens, it will play right into the hands of the fast finishing Thapa VC. He's won two of his last three, he's won each of his last two over 7f and won both from the back, so connections must be satisfied with his turn of pace late on. He's the only one of the field with any recent winning form and I think he's the one for me here.

He's currently priced at 11/2 with both Hills & Bet365, which seems fair to me. As for the placers, I don't really fancy the shortlist horses Golden Spice and Amber Island nor Maxi Boy, but any of the others could mount a realistic challenge to make the frame. If I was to pick any, I'd want a decent price so I could go E/W and that probably brings me to the 9/1 Touchwood. His pace/draw profile doesn't look good, but he's essentially only one stall away from having the ideal combo and he has ran well enough to finish third twice in the last three weeks.



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Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

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Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning). To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!



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