SANDOWN – APRIL 28
Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:
2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)
Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:
Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1
Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*
Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)
Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)
Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)
Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1
Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown:
Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)
Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)
Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)
Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)
Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)
Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)
Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes
1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up. It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day. Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.
Record of the course winner in the opening event:
1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)
2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event. Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George. One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.
Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.
Record of the course winners in the second contest:
1/1—Top Notch (soft)
1/2—O O Seven (soft)
3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared. It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far. Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.
Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.
Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:
2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)
2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)
1/4—Special Tiara (good)
3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times. If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years. 31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2. Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER. The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.
Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.
Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:
1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)
1/4—Benbens (good to soft)
1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)
3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)
1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016
4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years. WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.
Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).
Record of the course winners in the fifth race:
2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)
2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)
4.40: Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).
Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford. Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season! The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now! Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.
Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:
2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)
Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:
1/1-- Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year
1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)
1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)
1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)
All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.