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Racing Insights, 13th January 2021

We were right to swerve the shortlist runners today. The Fairyhouse race ended up a 3-runner affair and Sizing Pottsie was sent off as 4/9 fav! In fairness, he had the race won with an eight length lead approaching the last, but sadly fell and the race eventually went to the one I highlighted as the danger.

At Wetherby 10 minutes later, Domaine de L'Isle also failed to win but did complete, finishing fourth beaten by some 33 lengths with two of the three I liked more finishing in front of him. So, we'd no bets but breaking even was better than losing two points on this occasion.

Maybe, I'll have a bet on Wednesday after consulting the free-to-all Trainer Stats report or via the free racecards for...

  • 1.30 Plumpton
  • 2.10 Leicester
  • 3.10 Leicester
  • 3.40 Leicester

And it's to the Trainer Stats report that I'm turning today. As usual, I have fairly demanding criteria to narrow down a list of possible selections...

Which gives us two to look at, starting in the 2.40 Leicester...

This horse returned to action on 5th December after 266 days off the track to finish third of six at Wetherby in a Class 3, soft ground handicap hurdle over 2 miles. He was beaten by nine lengths after a mistake at the last slowed him down and the winner has since finished third in a similar contest despite being raised 10lbs for the win. Our runner has been eased a pound for that run/defeat and has had a wind operation for weeks ago.

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He's a fairly useful if not brilliant hurdler, having made the frame three times from seven efforts, but winning just once. Based on the conditions faced today, he has the following records...

  • 0 wins and 2 places from 6 under jockey Brendan Powell
  • 2 wins from 3 in 8-11 runner fields
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 on heavy
  • 0/1 at this trip, but has won at 2 miles
  • 0/3 at Class 3

He'll be hoping, however, to continue trainer Michael Scudamore's excellent recent record at this venue, despite sending hardly any runners here. Since the start of 2018, he has had just six runners here, but three wins and a place represents an excellent return, including of relevance today...

  • 3/5 in handicaps
  • 3/5 at odds of 10/1 and shorter
  • 2/3 with 6-8 yr olds
  • 1/3 from LTO placers
  • 0/3 at Class 3
  • 2/2 with males
  • 1/1 for Brendan Powell
  • 1/1 on heavy
  • 1/1 at 31-45 days rest
  • 1/1 in January
  • 0/1 over course and distance
  • 0/1 over hurdles

So, a bit of a mixed bag based on form and the stats of the horse/trainer, so I wouldn't completely discount his chances just yet. In similar contests to this one, it has paid to sit in mid-division during the race...

...and whilst his averaging positioning is slightly ahead of that point, he does sit in the middle trio of the overall pace map with four runners ahead of his group and four runners behind, so if they run to plan, he should end up mid-div after all...

That said, when he did win five starts ago on heavy ground, he set off quickly, made all and ended up 8 lengths clear. A revert to those tactics might not be a bad call here either.

*

And now to the 3.30 Plumpton...

This 7 yr old gelding failed to make the frame in three bumpers and six hurdles contests but was third on his chasing debut two starts ago, when beaten by just three lengths on this over 2 miles on soft ground at Hereford in late November. He clearly relished the larger obstacles in the mud and backed that run up with a good 5.5 lengths success just over a month ago when landing a 2m1.5f Class 5 race at Bangor. He still looked full of running at the finish and although we've only two runs to go on, a 6lb rise in weights might not inconvenience him too much.

Like Michael Scudamore's record at Leicester above, Eurkash's trainer, Paul Webber, is a successful if infrequent visitor to Plumpton and like Michael at Leicester, Paul has 3 winners and a place from 6 runners at this track since the start of 2018, including...

  • 3/5 in hcps, 2/5 with males, 2/4 in chases, 3/3 in fields of 7-11 runners
  • 2/3 after less than 5 weeks rest, 2/3 at 7/1 or shorter, 2/2 at Class 5
  • 1/2 on soft, 1/2 from LTO placers, 1/2 in January, 1/1 over C&D
  • 1/1 using jockey Gavin Sheehan and 1/1 with 7 yr olds

Quick note re: jockey Gavin Sheehan, he's another who doesn't come here too often, but is 7 from 20 (35% SR, A/E 1.87) over fences here since 2014, including 2 wins from 4 over course and distance. Plenty of promise from the above and whilst we don't have a great deal of pace data to hand for this type of contest...

...I'd say that a mid-division "pozzy" might well be the right approach here.

Summary

I had the Leicester runner, Thor de Cerisy as fourth, possibly fifth best in my own rankings and I didn't have him that far behind a top three berth, so he's certainly be of interest from an E/W perspective if we could get a decent enough price on him. He ran well last season and his last effort after a long lay-off was as good as could be expected of him. If the wind op has an immediate effect, then 10/1 seems more than fair for those of you fancying a small E/W flutter, as both When You're Ready and Oscar's Leader have more appeal from a win perspective.

Eurkash is the type I'd be all over at Plumpton, based on his two runs over fences, the stats that I've quoted and a 3/1 price tag, but for the presence of a near odds-on favourite in the shape of hat-trick seeking High Up In The Air. The fav drops in class and trip here and his 7lb hike in weight is offset by the booking of a 7lb claimer.

That's not to say that the fav is a given, he has won back to back races when making all and has done most of his running over longer distances. He'll have competition up top this time, the trip is sharper and his jockey has only won 2 of his last 45 over fences. I have the favourite down as best in the race, but I rate Eurkash a clear second. If you think that there's enough doubt around to swerve an even money (odds-on in places) fav, then the 3/1 Eurkash should be the one to profit.

Racing Insights, 3rd December 2020

No joy at Lingfield on Wednesday, I'm afraid. Arthur's Angel was forced very wide on the final turn effectively taking him out of the race, whilst Battle of Marathon looked like he was with too much to do late on and went down by less than a length. Such are the perils of hold-up horses, I suppose.

Thursday is, of course, a new day so I'll dust myself down and go ahead on a day where our free feature is the Instant Expert tab for all races, including the following full races of the day...

  • 12.22 Market Rasen
  • 2.07 Leicester
  • 6.00 Chelmsford
  • 7.00 Chelmsford

And of the four above, I think I'll take on the 2.07 Leicester : an 8-runner, Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yo+ over 2m4½f on Soft ground worth £3,509 to the winner, who'll hopefully feature in my summary shortly, after we've considered the data available to us, starting with the racecard in saddle cloth/weight order...

Running a little late this evening, so let's go through the card quickly from left to right...

FORM :
Positives : Gortroe Joe, Trans Express & A Distant Place
Negatives : Irish Odyssey, Aliandy & Unblinking : all three might need a run too after 266, 338 and 339 days off the track.

CLASS MOVERS :
Gortroe Joe & Aliandy both drop down from Class 3

COURSE/DISTANCE FORM :
Gortroe Joe, Aliandy, Corri Lindo & Unblinking are all distance winners, whilst Trans Express is a course and distance winner.

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TRAINER FORM :
Positives : A Distant Place, Gortroe Joe, Aliandy, Known & Trans Express
Negatives : Corri Lindo. Also Unblinking starts for a new yard after even Nigel Twiston-Davies couldn't get a tune out of him over the last two years.

JOCKEY FORM :
Positives : Irish Odyssey, Gortroe Joe, Aliandy, Known & Trans Express
Negative : Unblinking

GEEGEEZ RATINGS (SR) :
Positive : Trans Express, Gortroe Joe & Corri Lindo
Negative : Aliandy, Unblinking, Known & Irish Odyssey

And based on that pros and cons list, I'll bid farewell to both Irish Odyssey and more obviously, Unblinking, as we move on to Instant Expert, the feature of the day, where the place results probably tell us a bit more...

...than the win only columns...

We already knew that Trans Express was the only previous course winner and he alongside Gortroe Joe are the ones that have shown some winning form on soft ground (Aliandy has failed to convert any of 5 placed runs into wins), whilst over trips of 2m2f to 2m6f Trans Express and Gortroe Joe once again tick more boxes than the others.

There's lots of red on the win graphic, but most of the runners fare well on the place element, so I'm only removing Corri Lindo at this stage, as he was on the edge after round 1. This leaves us with five ahead of assessing the pace/strategy of the race ahead...

The above data is based upon 27 previous races under the conditions I've selected. I've broadened the categories slightly to give me a bigger sample size to work with and from the look of the above, Trans Express might attempt to win it from the front, as 6 (22.2% of the winners) have done and the others may well let him get on with it in the hope of catching him late on.

Prominent racers tend to fare best, landing almost half of the 27 races and this could work for A Distant Place if he choose to keep in touch with the leader. Aliandy is a hold-up horse and although that tactic has been successful here in the past, he's 1 from 17 running that way, so the law of averages says he'll lose again from the back. Gortroe Joe changed tactics last time out and won from the front, so his position on the chart might be misleading, whilst Known seems to run differently every time, but to little effect so far.

Known didn't score greatly on the pros and cons and has yet to win a race, so he's a no for me, as is Aliandy with that 1/17 record. he was beaten by 37 lengths last time out ans is still only one pound lower in the handicap. His sole win came off a mark of 108 and has failed ever since off marks of 113 to 121 and runs off 119 today, a pound higher than Known.

And now I'm where I want to be : data assessed and a shortlist of three : A Distant Place, Gortroe Joe & Trans Express, all of whom have been ticking boxes as we've gone through the elimination process.

A Distant Place is interesting here on just his third start under Rules and on handicap debut. A respectable fourth on debut over 2m1f was followed by a good runner-up performance over 2m0.5f when just half a length behind the 5/6 fav Benson. Both runs were over short trips on Good to Soft, but I'm not concerned about trip or ground here, as he had one win and one place from three soft ground PTP races over three miles.

He'll have some running speed honed from those two short-distance efforts and if afforded an easy lead here might be hard to peg back and it's worth noting that trainer Jonjo O'Neill's handicap debutants are 8 from 35 (22.2% SR, A/E 1.35) since the start of 2019.

Gortroe Joe is one whose name I feel like I've typed a hundred times already in this piece, he won well last time out at a higher grade on soft ground over a similar trip to this contest and he was the best part of two lengths clear of the 11/8 fav First Lord de Cuet who has since reappeared in a one-length defeat at Class 2 off an unchanged mark of 126. Our runner here is up 4lbs but still only runs off 120 and if running to the same level as last time, would be the one to beat, especially if you consider he has previously won off 128 over both hurdles and fences.

And finally for today, we come to Trans Express, a 10 yr old gelding who had been out of sorts for a while but looked like coming back to form last time when third (beaten by 3.25 lengths) over an inadequately short trip at Exeter. He's a versatile sort who acts on most ground and has won four times at a grade higher than this. He runs off the same mark as LTO and receives plenty of weight from all bar one of his rivals here. Not an obvious winner, but definite place potential if nothing else as he's turned back quickly to avoid an imminent 2lb rise in weight.

Summary

A Distant Place, Gortroe Joe & Trans Express against the field for me. Trans Express might well try to win this from the front, but I suspect that Gortroe Joe might just race prominently again as he did to good effect last time out whilst A Distant Place will look to pick runners off on the way around. If the two do take up the pace, I think I'd want to be on Gortoe Joe and as Trans Express weakens, then A Distant Place would be the one benefit.

So, its GJ / ADP / TE as my 1-2-3 and 4/1 is a bit bigger about Gortroe Joe than I expected, which is pleasing. Sadly none are long enough to advise an E/W bet, but I'd be very surprised if my three don't include the winner.

Racing Insights, 6th October 2020

Monday's piece shortlisted four runners at Wolverhampton, of which one won and one didn't run, which sounds great, doesn't it? Sadly, the other two runners were the ones I expected to fare best and they came home fifth and sixth of ten runners. A moral victory of sorts, I suppose.

Lequinto, who won, qualified by having a satisfactory profile on Instant Expert and was also top of our own ratings, so although I didn't side with him, the clues were still there.

Next up is...

Tuesday 6th October

Feature of the Day is the Shortlist report, which is free on Tuesdays to all registered subscribers. Register here if you need to.

and Tuesday's free Races of the Day are

1.00 Catterick
1.15 Leicester
2.50 Leicester
5.40 Lingfield

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I've decided to go with the third on that list, the...

2.50 Leicester : a 7-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 5f on Soft (Heavy in places with more rain due) ground worth £11,972 to the winner.

As today's free feature is the Shortlist, we should start by seeing of any of our 7 runners are on it...

...so that's a tick in the box for those two and then we look at which (if any) of the seven runners have two or more blocks of green on the Instant Expert tab of the racecard...

None have raced here at Leicester before, but Ainsdale scores 3 out of 3 on the other boxes with Count D'Orsay and Dave Dexter scoring two. However, the ground is already heavy in places with more rain on the way, we should really look at this too...

...where only Ainsdale has run on heavy ground before when winning at Nottingham at this trip almost a year ago, albeit two grades lower than today. The pace/draw profile is very important over short trips, especially when the going is at either extreme of the scale, so let's look at that next.

And assuming Acclaim doesn't drag Ainsdale along too quickly, the latter would get another tick with Blue de Vega and Ishvara also looking of interest and then after I'd considered all of the above, I would then be in a position to refer back to my own personal report angles report to see if anything was of note and when I do that I find the following...

Acclaim The Nation :  Jockey Stats 14 Day/30 Day
Blue De Vega :  Trainer Stats 14 Day
Dave Dexter :  Trainer Stats 14 Day & Trainer Jockey 14 Day / 30 Day / 1 Year
Ishvara :  Trainer Stats 14 Day

So, ticks in the boxes for those four runners for that one.

Summary

Based on the criteria I've used above to analyse the race, Ainsdale and Ishvara dominate the proceedings and are (purely coincidentally) the two runners from the Shortlist report.

But do I think they'll win? One might and one shouldn't. Ishvara has only won at Class 4 and lost her last handicap outing off this mark in a lower grade. This should be too tough for him and she's probably wanting a step up to six furlongs, whereas Ainsdale might well prevail here provided he doesn't go off too quickly.

He was in fine form last October in difficult racing conditions and I'm happy to view his latest outing as a pipe-opener for today. He was beaten by the best part of three lengths at this class and trip ten days but that was his first outing for 332 days and it came on good ground. Having had the run and now back in the mud, Ainsdale would be the one I'd like most here with the obvious pace caveat and a note of caution about the weight.

He won three races in 11 days last October off marks of 75, 81 and 89 and I'm concerned that a further step up to 97 might be a bit much on this ground.

This is then the point where I look at the odds and he's generally a 10/3 or 7/2 shot, as of 7pm Monday and that's just a bit skinny for my liking with my reservations about pace & weight, so whilst I'll be wanting him to be the one to win, he won't be carrying my money.

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

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Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 7th September 2020

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Kempton : Recovery Run @ 5/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 (Tracked leader, close up when ridden 2f out, ran on well to dispute lead close home, not quite match winner)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good To Soft ground worth £7,439 to the winner...

Why?...

We'll start with the racecard...

...which, whilst not as informative as some other days, tell us that we've an in-form horse (2 wins from last three starts) who scores well on the Geegeez Speed ratings and who will be ridden by a jockey with a good recent record here at Leicester with 9 wins from 35 (25.7% SR) since 2016.

Our boy might well be 10 yrs old now, but seems to be enjoying his own personal Indian Summer, having won two of three this year to take his career record on the Flat to a more than acceptable 11 wins from 58 and that 19% strike rate has yielded the following under today's conditions...

  • 9 wins and 11 further places from 51 for trainer Ian Williams
  • 8 wins, 10 places from 38 over a 7f trip
  • 4 wins, 2 places from 11 on Good to Soft
  • 2 wins from 3 in 2020
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 3 under jockey William Buick
  • 1 win plus 1 place from 2 here at Leciester
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 over course and distance

And now to trainer Ian Williams, who has been very good over the years at getting horses to win back to back races on the Flat, especially when not left off the track too long and when the market deems them to have at least a fighting chance. So, basically my Ian Williams LTO winner micro-angle is to look for those sent off at 7/1 and shorter within 45 days of that last run/win and since 2014, such runners are...

...with a win ratio of almost 2 in 5 at an A/E approaching 1.5 generating over 55p in the pound profits at Betfair SP giving us grounds for optimism here today, especially as they contain the following of relevance today...

  • 36/86 (41.9%) for 58.49pts (+68%) in races worth less than £17k
  • 34/91 (37.4%) for 50.5pts (+55.5%) in handicaps
  • 16/27 (59.3%) for 26.42pts (+97.9%) at 1-10 dslr
  • 13/28 (46.4%) for 28.91pts (+103.3%) during September/October
  • 8/15 (53.3%) for 26.7pts (+178%) over 6/7 furlongs
  • 5/10 (50%) for 13.77pts (+137.7%) on Good to Soft ground
  • 2/3 (66.6%) for 6.74pts (+224.8%) under jockey William Buick
  • and 1 from 2 (50%) for 0.97pts (+48.5%) here at Leicester...

...whilst from the above, in sub-£17k handicaps at 1-10 dslr, they are 16 from 23 (69.6% SR) for 30.42pts (+132.3% ROI), including a perfect 6 from 6 at an A/E of 3.77 in September/October generating 19.42pts profit (+326.6% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Shady McCoy @ 9/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Monday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2020

Monday's pick was...

2.20 Windsor : Porto Ferro @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 2/1 (Soon led, went to rail over 4f out, joined and hung badly left from 2f out, headed inside final furlong, no extra and beaten by a length)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chetan @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 13-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good To Firm ground worth £2,782 to the winner...

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Why?...

A quick look at the card shows...

...an 8 yr old course and distance winner who won last time out (also over C&D when making all on his way to a 9.5 length success) and is trained by Tony Carroll, whose form over the last two years includes...

Those LTO winners when sent off at 7/1 and shorter are...

...whilst at 4/1 and shorter, those turned back out quickly are...

And as this horse won over C&D last time out, it's worth noting that Tony Carroll does well with LTO winners with that CD icon on the racecard, especially at the sharp end of the market, as shown by...

...of which those who actually won over C&D LTO are...

And finally for today, I'd like to briefly highlight the fact that horses returning to Leicester after a C&D win last time out also fare very well, as in...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Chetan @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Tuesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!