Posts

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 16th June

SANDOWN – JUNE 16

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £378.20 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.2% units went through – 5/2* - 20/1 – 16/1

Race 2: 32.3% of the remaining units when through – 11/1 – 25/1 – 7/2*

Race 3: 17.6% of the remaining units went through – 20/1 & 10/3 (5/4)

Race 4: 64.2% of the remaining units went through – 13/8* - 4/1 – 33/1

Race 5: 17.1% of the remaining units went through – 15/2 – 13/2 7/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 76.9% of the units secured the dividend – Evens* - 8/1 – 11/2

 

  • Speculative subscribers might have hoped for a bigger dividend last year, given that the ‘Pot was worth £291.88 after five legs. Unfortunately for those that opposed the even money favourite (Bristol Missile) in the Placepot finale, the market leader accounted for 61.9% of the remaining units which in Placepot terms meant that the jolly was an 8/13 chance to finish in the frame - before going on to score.

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.05): 4 (Mokaatil), 1 (Sound Of Silence) & 3 (Koditime)

Leg 2 (2.35): 5 (Shamshon), 3 (Rio Ronaldo) & 11 (Island Of Life)

Leg 3 (3.15): 7 (Chiefofchiefs), 1 (Silver Line) & 6 (Graphite Storm)

Leg 4 (3.50): 2 (Flavius Titus) & 6 (Zalshah)

Leg 5 (4.25): 3 (Ibraz), 1 (Deyaarna) & 9 (Simply Breathless)

Leg 6 (5.00): 6 (Marechal Ney) & 5 (Jamih)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

2.05: The ‘Scurry Stakes’ has the look of a race which is designed to relieve punters of as much cash as possible before they have a chance of biting back at Royal Ascot. That argument has lost momentum in recent times however as the biggest priced winner was returned at just 11/1 during the last thirteen years.  Nine of the last thirteen winners have scored at odds of 4/1 or less for good measure.  The terms and conditions of this Listed event appears to favour MOKAATIL and SOUND AND SILENCE, whilst the chance of KODITIME is also respected. There are bits and pieces of support for Rock On Baileys at the time of around at around 14/1 which makes for interesting reading

Favourite factor: Seven market leaders have been successful via thirteen renewals, though three of the other six market leaders finished out of the frame.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the two course winners in the opening race:

1/2—Haddaf (good)

1/3—Spoof (good)

 

2.35: This was known as ‘Timeform Day’ down the years though I have long since regarded it as a bookmaker’s extravaganza, designed to get as much money into the hod before Royal Ascot as the layers can muster.  The trio that should give us a decent shout for our respective monies are SHAMSHON, RIO RONALDO and ISLAND OF LIFE.

Favourite factor: Seven of the last twelve favourites have finished in the frame, including two successful market leaders which were both returned at 5/2.

Record of the five course winners in the second event:

1/1—Rio Ronaldo (good to firm)

1/4—Shamshon (good to firm)

1/2—Babyfact (good to firm)

1/3—Desert Ace (good to soft)

1/1—Jashma (good)

 

3.15: Four-year-olds have secured nine of the eighteen available Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include four of the six winners at 11/1-5/1-9/2*-11/4*. Four-year-old raiders SILVER LINE and GRAPHITE STORM are not discounted from each way and Placepot perspective, though it is five-year-old CHIEFOFCHIEFS which might upset the vintage trends on this occasion.  As a self-confessed stats anorak, I can’t dismiss the fact that James Doyle is only having his third ride for trainer Charlie Fellowes (50% strike rate thus far), whilst Charlie won with his only other runner at the Esher circuit this season.

Favourite factor: All three market leaders had missed out on Placepot positions, before the subsequent trio of favourites evened up the score by winning their respective events.

Record of the three course winners in the field: 

1/4—Manson (good to firm)

1/1—Chiefofchiefs (good)

1/4—Almoreb (good to soft)

 

3.50: Seven of the last twelve winners during the last decade have carried a minimum burden of 9-2, stats which bring FLAVIUS TITUS strongly into the equation.  Roger Varian’s colt looks something of a Placepot banker, whilst there are couple of ‘mistakes’ in the trade press this morning that need reporting, especially with a £2.90 price tag relating to the printed word!  The lads/lasses in the office have ‘priced up’ ZALSHAH at 16/1 which looks well wide of the mark, whilst the reporter on the race offered the following words to round up their comment by literally finishing a sentence about one of the contenders “he was earlier promising”!  Now I can’t talk about ‘typos’ by other people without the term stones/glasshouses being thrown in my direction, but this is printed matter for goodness sake; at £2.90 a copy!  My subscription page today will carry umpteen thousands of words/numerals but I’m hoping not to have many errors thrown in like that one!

Favourite factor: Twelve of the thirteen favourites have been beaten, with favourites claiming only five Placepot position between them to date. The biggest priced winner was returned at 25/1 two years ago before a 20/1 chance reared its ugly head twelve months later.  Twenty of the 37 horses (54%) to have claimed Placepot positions have started at odds of 13/2 or less.

Record of the course winner in the fourth contest on the card: 

1/1—Rum Runner (good to soft)

 

4.25: Ten of the last fourteen winners carried a minimum burden of 8-13, whilst top trainers tend to secure this prize in no uncertain terms. The weight stats dilute interest in SIMPLY BREATHLESS to a fashion, though I still cannot bring myself to discard Clive Cox’s raider from a Placepot perspective.  There are no ‘trend worries’ (apart from favourite issues reported below) relating to IBRAZ and DEYAARNA fortunately.

Favourite factor: Just one favourite has won during the last eighteen years, whilst just eight of the twenty one market leaders have claimed Placepot positions.

Record of the course winner in the fifth race: 

1/3—Bathsheba Bay (good to soft)

 

5.00: There was money overnight for MARECHAL NEY and the 11/4 on offer by three firms at the time of writing might not last too long this morning regarding John Gosden’s Frankel colt.  Indeed, connections of Robert Havlin’s mount might have most to fear from stable companion JAMIH.  I cannot entertain the possibility of both inmates finishing out of the frame.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Stat of the Day, 16th June 2018

Friday's Pick was...

7.55 Aintree : Indian Temple @ 5/2 BOG 6th at 15/8 (Disputed lead, led before 4th, headed 5 out, lost place after 3 out, weakened before last)

We continue with Saturday's...

8.40 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOG

A 7-runner, Class 5 Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 2m on Good To Firm ground worth £4787 to the winner... 

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding struggled over the longer flat distances before a decision was made to drop him back to a mile and a half nine months ago.

That switch seems to have put some fire in our lad's belly as his record over that period now stands at 6 wins and a runner-up finish (beaten by just a neck) from seven runs, all over 12/12.5 furlongs.

His last outing was 39 days ago when he won by four lengths over today's trip in this grade under today's jockey Darragh Keenan who 2 from 2 on him.

His trainer Alan Bailey seems to have the knack of getting his horses to win at this type of trip with 22 winners from 129 (17.1% SR) over trips of 11.5 to 12.5 furlongs generating profits of 58.6pts (+45.4% ROI) since the start of 2011.

And with today's contest firmly in mind, those 129 runners are...

  • 21/119 (17.7%) for 50.6pts (+42.5%) in handicaps
  • 18/82 (22%) for 85.2pts (+103.9%) 11 to 45 days after their last run
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 58.1pts (+123.6%) on the Flat
  • 11/38 (28.9%) for 56pts (+147.5%) as 5/6 yr olds
  • 8/38 (21.1%) for 52.5pts (+138%) at Class 5
  • 6/25 (24%) for 40.75pts (+163%) on good to firm ground
  • and 6 /19 (31.6%) for 20.4pts (+107.5%) as LTO winners.

That LTO winners stat is particularly relevant here, as since the start of 2014, Alan Bailey's KTO winners are 16 from 72 (22.2% SR) for 54.3pts (+75.4% ROI), including the following of relevance today...

  • males are 12/48 (25%) for 57.5pts (+119.8%)
  • at 11 to 45 days since their last run : 12/40 (30%) for 59.75pts (+149.4%)
  • on the Flat : 7/28 (25%) for 25.3pts (+90.5%)
  • at Class 5 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 18pts (+94.5%)
  • 5 yr olds are 5/17 (29.4%) for 26.9pts (+158.5%)
  • and over 12/12.5 furlongs : 5/8 (62.5%) for 20.3pts (+254.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Esspeegee @ 10/3 BOGwhich was widely available at 7.10pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Monday 4th June

WINDSOR – JUNE 4

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £45.00 (6 favourites: 3 winners - 1 placed - 2 unplaced)

 

There is no breakdown for the race by race Placepot details for Monday – Tote glitch on the day last year by the look of things – back to normal (whatever that is!) for Fontwell tomorrow….

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (5.45): 1 (Nine Below Zero), 7 (Rock Of Estonia) & 2 (Formidable Kit)

Leg 2 (6.15): 1 (Queen Of Bermuda) & 6 (Leading Spirit)

Leg 3 (6.45): 2 (Buridan) & 1 (Buffer Zone)

Leg 4 (7.15): 7 (Son Of Africa), 6 (Louis De Palma) & 3 (Holmeswood)

Leg 5 (7.45): 2 (What A Welcome) & 3 (Chance To Dream)

Leg 6 (8.15): 5 (Cassini) & 12 (Staplegrove)

Suggested stake: 144 bets to 10p stakes

 

5.45: NINE BELOW ZERO won the juvenile event on the card last year and with Ralph Beckett’s Showcasing gelding meeting trouble in running at the first time of asking this season, I’m willing to give him another chance at around the 8/1 mark this evening.  ROCK OF EASTONIA is feared most, albeit FORMIDABLE KIT also looks sure to take a hand in the finish.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite duly obliged when this race was run as the Placepot finale.

Record of the three course winners in the opening event:

1/1—Nine Below Zero (good to firm)

1/1—Rock Of Estonia (good)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/3—Iconic Knight (soft)

 

6.15: QUEEN OF BERMUDA ultimately ran out an impressive winner at Thirsk on her second start having also been favourite to land a warm event at Ascot on debut.  Her Thirsk victory wasn’t always on the cards in the race as the Exceed And Excel filly had to be shake up a few times before reaching the business end of the contest by which time, she was impressing with each stride.  Well placed here by William Haggas, the March foal should take the beating.  The two Godolphin runners LEADING SPIRIT (second colours) and FLY THE NEST should offer most resistance close home, the pair being listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: The two gold medallists to date have secured gold and silver medals at 6/4 and 7/4 respectively whilst securing Placepot positions.

 

6.45: There should not be a great deal of daylight by the time that the jamstick has been reached between BURIDAN and BUFFER ZONE, though I’m sticking with Richard Hannon’s first named raider given his course victory under fast conditions at the first time of asking last year.  Only SWIFT CHILL is offering any type of resistance on the exchanges as far as their rivals are concerned, whereby the first two horses mentioned in dispatches will do for me against the field.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Windsor card.

Record of the course winner in the third race:

1/1—Buridan (good to firm)

 

7.15: Eight of the last nine winners have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, which unfortunately only eliminates the bottom three horses from my viewpoint.  The pick of the remaining eight contenders will hopefully prove to be SON OF AFRICA, LOUIS DE PALMA and HOLMESWOOD, the trio representing some value against Silent Echo at the top of the handicap.  I readily admit that Peter Hedger’s potential favourite (Silent Echo) deserves to be a popular order but from a Placepot perspective, my trio should offer us decent efforts for our collective monies.  SON OF AFRICA is listed first on account of his other victories at top tracks such as Sandown, Newmarket and Goodwood, aside from posting his success here at Windsor on fast ground back in 2014.

Favourite factor: Just one (3/1) favourite has prevailed during the last eleven years, whilst only three of the last ten market leaders have finished in the frame.  I wonder if it was a bookmaker which dreamed up this series of events which seemingly haunts Windsor cards on a weekly basis?

Record of the four course winners in the fifth event on the card:

1/2—Silent Echo (good)

1/1—Louis De Palma (good to firm)

1/1—Son Of Africa (good to firm)

1/2—Mullionheir (good)

 

7.45: Patrick Chamings (WHAT A WELCOME) and John Best (CHANCE TO DREAM) have a chance to lord it over some big named trainers here with their representatives both looking to have first rate chances of claiming Placepot positions at the very least.  I’m finding it difficult to split the pair to be honest whereby my Placepot cash is the only stake involved in this contest.  Zamperini is taken the follow the pair home to secure the bronze medal.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural market leader prevailed at odds of 5/2.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

2/3—Chance To Dream (good & good to soft)

1/9—Ravenous (good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden boasts a 2/3 record at the venue this season but unless a dead heat occurs here via his two representatives CASSINI and STAPLEGROVE, John’s ratio will be reduced even if one of his inmates wins! Out of interest, LOTHARIO is attracting support on the exchanges in the dead of night, though three-year-olds invariably win these mixed maiden/novice events, especially at this time of the year.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race on the Windsor programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 29th May

LEICESTER – MAY 29

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £20.50 (7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 90.2% units went through – 8/15* - 6/1 – 9/2

Race 2: 24.5% of the remaining units when through – 8/1 – 4/1 – 14/1 (2 x 5/2**)

Race 3: 48.0% of the remaining units went through – 10/1 – 5/2* - 7/1

Race 4: 79.5% of the remaining units went through – 33/1 – 8/1 – Evens*

Race 5: 51.7% of the remaining units went through – 11/8* & 14/1

Race 6: 81.4% of the units secured the dividend – 4/5* - 15/2 – 11/2

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 1 (Ballistic), 6 (Secret Venture) & 2 (Blyton)

Leg 2 (2.20): 2 (Flight Of Fantasy), 7 (Infanta Isabella) & 9 (Peace And Plenty)

Leg 3 (2.50): 6 (Shovel It On), 4 (Star Of Zaam) & 5 (Straight Ash)

Leg 4 (3.20): 3 (Angel’s Glory) & 2 (Cavatina)

Leg 5 (3.50): 4 (Fanaar) & 5 (Glorious Dane)

Leg 6 (4.20): 16 (Delph Crescent), 5 (I’m A Star) & 1 (Nibras Galaxy)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: BALLISTIC is a general 6/1 chance across the board at the time of writing and given that he finished ‘only’ four lengths adrift of an Aidan O’Brien favourite (finished third) at Newmarket recently, Jim Crowley’s mount represents an each way (potential) bet to nothing investment, albeit to small stakes.  Murqaab looks too skinny from my viewpoint at the third time of asking, whereby I’ll add newcomers SECRET VENURE and BYLTON into the Placepot mix for openers.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/5 market leader duly obliged.

 

2.20: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Harry Dunlop’s runners (alongside brother Ed’s for that matter) but FLIGHT OF FANTASY should give us a reasonable run for our collective monies in a race which should not prove difficult to win.  It might be worth taking into account that Harry has only saddled more winners at Salisbury than he has managed at this venue down the years and with the ‘Dunlop’ name en masse strongly associated with the Wiltshire racecourse, Harry’s Leicester record is decent enough.  Others to consider from a win and place perspective include INFANTA ISABELLA and PEACE AND PLENTY.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite prevailed.

Leicester record of the two course winners in the second event: 

1/2—Flight Of Fantasy (good to soft)

1/1—Bakht A Rowan (heavy)

 

2.50: All nine winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1 which eliminates the top three horses in the handicap, two of which are well fancied according to the trade press. The trio which make most appeal from the other five options in this potential ‘dead eight’ contest are course winner SHOVEL IT ON, STAR OF ZAAM and STRAIGHT ASH.

Favourite factor: Two (6/4 & 5/2) favourites have prevailed via nine renewals to date, whilst seven of the nine gold medallists have scored at a top price of 6/1.  Six of the nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

Leicester record of the course winner in the field: 

1/3—Shovel It On (soft)

 

3.20: The trio of winners thus far have scored at 33/1, 10/1 & 9/2 with the prices getting bigger year on year!  Hoping those stats will not have put you off having a bet in the race, I’m offering up ANGEL’S GLORY to go very close in this grade/company.  It took a subsequent ‘Listed’ winner to stop the Invincible Spirit filly scoring at the first time of asking this term and it’s doubtful that there is a rival of that class in this field.  Andrea Atzeni will have (presumably) had the option of riding stable companion Elation, which leads yours truly to thinking that CAVATINA is the biggest threat to the selection this afternoon.  Lady Willpower receives the reserve nomination call.

Favourite factor: Both of the (11/4 & 9/4) favourites had missed out on Placepot positions before last year’s even money market scrambled home in third place to reduce the deficit.

 

3.50: The Hannon team think a great deal of GLORIOUS DANE, that much I know to be true but there might be a doubt about him beating FANAAR over six furlongs, with Fran Berry’s mount being an Olympic Glory colt.  Either way, I suggest you set the video up for this event to determine just how good Glorious Dane might be later in the the season.  FANNAR did little wrong at the first time of asking and looks something of a Placepot banker, whichever of the pair wins, unless Sir Michael Stoute’s Kingman colt ALNASHERAT proves to be something out of the ordinary.  I urge you to take note of that last sentence, given that Michael has saddled more juvenile winners at Leicester than anywhere else in this green and (blessedly still) pleasant land.

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders and three joint favourites have won via twelve renewals, whilst the relevant winners to date scored at a top price of 8/1.  Nine of the fourteen favourites have snared Placepot positions to date.

 

4.20: DELPH CRESCENT appeals at odds of 20/1 in a place this morning, fully expecting Richard Fahey’s raider to contract to around the 14/1 mark before too long as business gets fully under way.  Richard took his ratio to 3/4 at the track yesterday with a winner from the other end of the market, though Paul Hanagan’s mount is still expected to give a decent account at the odds on offer.  Others for the mix include I’M A STAR, NIBRAS GALAXY and IMMORTAL ROMANCE.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 18th May

LEICESTER – MAY 28

 

Last year's corresponding Placepot dividend:

2017: £21.90 (6 favourites - 2 winners - 3 placed - 1 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions are offered in brackets:

Race 1: 41.6% units went through – 15/8* - 20/1 – 14/1

Race 2: 78.3% of the remaining units when through – 13/8* & 5/2

Race 3: 60.0% of the remaining units went through – 16/1 – 6/1 – 10/3*

Race 4: 87.8% of the remaining units went through – 7/1 – 9/2 – 4/6*

Race 5: 62.8% of the remaining units went through – 12/1 – 3/1 – 9/4*

Race 6: 30.8% of the units secured the dividend – 2/1 (Win only – 6/4)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.45): 6 (Strongarm Chaser), 8 (Racehorse) & 5 (Full Suit)

Leg 2 (2.20): 4 (Miss Mumtaz), 2 (Katie Lee) & 6 (Downtown Mombasa)

Leg 3 (2.55): 3 (Barton Mills), 1 (Etefaaq) & 6 (Prince Ahwanee)

Leg 4 (3.30): 2 (Raa Atoll) & 1 (Photographer)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Leg 5 (4.05): 2 (Burgonet) & 3 (Sailing Home)

Leg 6 (4.40): 5 (Jumira Bridge), 1 (Aclimatise) & 7 (Najashee)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.45: Nine of the last twelve winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-2, which rules out the top four horses in the handicap, leaving the likes of STRONGARM CHASER, RACEHORSE and FULL SUIT to assess.  The trio are just about listed in order of preference before we get some clues from the exchanges.

Favourite factor: Favourites of one description or another have won six of the last ten renewals during which time, eight winners scored at a top price of 7/2.  Eight of the last nine market leaders have secured Placepot positions.

 

2.20: Ian Williams can do little wrong just now and the popular handler has declared MISS MUMTAZ with definite claims in a race which will not take a great deal of winning.  Talented rivals are only conspicuous by their absence in the main, possible excluding the likes of KATIE LEE and DOWNTOWN MOMBASA.

Favourite factor: This is a new race (for fillies – always encouraged) on the Leicester card

 

2.55: Twelve winners in as many years have carried a minimum burden of 8-13, statistics which eliminate Airshow at the bottom of the handicap.  BARTON MILLS and ETEFAAQ both sport headgear for the first time and I anticipate the aids to have the desired effect, particularly from a Placepot perspective in a half decent contest.  PRINCE AHWANEE completes my trio against the remaining six entries.

Favourite factor: Four favourites have won during the last twelve years, whilst eight of the last eleven market leaders snared Placepot positions.  Nine of the twelve winners during the study period scored at a top price of 9/1.

 

3.30: RAA ATOLL and PHOTOGRAPHER jumped off the page in a flash (apologies offered!) with John Gosden’s pair fully expected to claim Placepot positions.  Readers looking for an alternative option could do worse than consider the merits of Rashdan.

Favourite factor: This is another new (novice) contest on the Leicester programme.

 

4.05: Regular readers will know that I struggle with Ed Dunlop’s runners.  When I include his representatives in the mix they disappoint and vice versa.  Please form an orderly queue outside betting shops the length and breadth of the country as I am passing up the chance of Ed’s recent Chepstow winner Qaswarah.  I prefer BURGONET and SAILING HOME, from a value for money perspective if little else.

Favourite factor: This is becoming a little repetitive being the third new race at the meeting.

 

4.40: Four-year-olds have won both renewals thus far and whilst that fact does not pass as a trend just yet, I’ll opt for the scenario to be extended by vintage representatives, JUMIRA BRIDGE, ACLIMATISE and NAJASHEE.

Favourite factor: Only one of the two favourites thus far secured a Placepot position via a bronze medal effort twelve months ago.

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/2—Jay Kay (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Placepot Pointers – Monday 21st May

WINDSOR – MAY 21

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £8.70 (6 favourites: 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced)

 

Monday's Placepot permutation at Windsor: 

Leg 1 (6.15): 2 (Come On Leicester) & 7 (Kadiz)

Leg 2 (6.45): 5 (Oona), 4 (Main Edition) & 7 (Satisfying)

Leg 3 (7.15): 3 (Di Alta), 2 (Alwaysandforever) & 1 (Colonial Classic)

Leg 4 (7.45): 2 (D’bai) & 5 (Projection)

Leg 5 (8.15): 9 (Margie’s Choice), 2 (Agrotera) & 12 (Solar Gold)

Leg 6 (8.45): 6 (Kirkland Forever) & 5 (Biotic)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

6.15: Richard Hannon’s has claimed two of the three renewals in which the stable was represented and COME ON LEICESTER appears to have been well placed to improve upon a good effort at Ascot at the first time of asking. One of the few worries is that the Kodiac juvenile was not one of the two-year-olds discussed on a recent stable tour.  KADIZ looks the only threat but following a half decent debut effort at Newmarket (good going), the Richard Hughes raider let supporters down at Salisbury, albeit that event was contested on heavy ground.  The other negative at the time of writing is that Shane Kelly’s mount is particularly weak on the exchanges.

Favourite factor: All four markets have secured Placepot positions thus far, statistics which include a trio of odds on winners.  That said, favourite backers should not consider this event as a ‘gimme’ as a 1/5 favourite was turned over recently from a win perspective.

 

6.45: Richard Hannon has a chance of landing the first two races on the card, having declared his Kodiac newcomer OONA. Richard stated a while ago that he would wait for the six furlong races for this juvenile and has wasted little time in entering his February foal.  Not over big in size, Tom Marquand’s mount will appreciate this fast ground I’ll wager, though with Ryan Moore riding MAIN EDITION for Mark Johnston here, nothing is taken for granted.  SATISFYING is the other potential winner in the field having only been beaten two lengths on debut at Ascot.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural contest was won by the 9/4 favourite, leading home horses at 7/1 and 66/1 in a ‘dead eight’ event.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

7.15: Although only three runners face the starter, this is an intriguing contest, especially as the outsider DI ALTA was the subject of overnight support, despite his course victory having been gained with some moisture in the ground.  That said, Ed Walker’s filly has a silver medal effort to boast under these faster conditions and there is no way that I am leaving the High Chaparral representative out of the (win only) Placepot mix.  ALWAYSANDFOREVER and COLONIAL CLASSIC make up the trio in what should prove to be a fascinating race.  If you fancy the favourite to oblige but are fearful of another result ensuing, you can always add another bet into the equation, banking on the favourite which will give you additional revenue should your main permutation be successful.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 2/1 favourite finished out of the ‘short field’ frame behind horses returned at 4/1 and 3/1. New readers might like to know that the term ‘short field’ relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.

Windsor record of the course winner in the third race on the card:

1/1—Di Alta (good to soft)

 

7.45: Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight renewals and this year’s lone vintage contender can go close, namely D’BAI representing Charlie Appleby, whose horses invariably seem to be at the top of their game.  I don’t think I have called THE TIN MAN right on any of his recent assignments.  When I fancy the Equiano gelding, James Fanshawe’s raider disappoints – and vice versa!  At the prices, I’m inclined to pass him by on this occasion (please form an orderly queue at betting shops the length and breadth of the country), opting for GIFTED MASTER and PROJECTION (especially) as bigger threats tonight.  At 33/1, three time course winner Tropics will have his supporters but only receiving weight here from Gifted Master, the ten-year-old will (no doubt) have better opportunities to strike again later in the season.

Favourite factor: Four successive favourites won between 2008 and 2011, though we had to wait until 2016 for another winning market leader to come along.  The race reverted to ‘recent type’ twelve months ago with the 9/4 market leader finishing only third, albeit a Placepot position was gained.

Windsor record of course winners in the fourth event:

1/2—Makzeem (good to firm)

1/2—Projection (good to firm)

1/1—The Tin Man (good)

3/5—Tropics (2 x good & good to firm)

 

8.15: John Gosden has won with both of his runners here at Windsor this season, albeit at much shorter prices than the quote of 9/2 which is on offer for stable raider MARGIE’S CHOICE this evening.  Indeed, Nicky Mackay’s mount is weak on the exchanges at the time of writing, though that should not deny her securing a second Placepot position from as many opportunities thus far.  That said, SOLAR GOLD and AGROTERA are serious rivals on this occasion and no mistake.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won nine of the last fourteen renewals during which time, twelve gold medallists were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

 

8.45: Ten of the last fourteen winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-4 and KIRKLAND FOREVER and BIOTIC are the value for money calls to land the Placepot dividend for us, without taking it for granted that we will have reached this event ‘intact’.  The 15/8 trade press quote about Dangerous Ends makes no appeal whatsoever, whilst Essenaitch would probably prefer a less lively surface.

Favourite factor: Ten favourites have won this event during the study period, whilst 14 of the last 22 market leaders reached the frame, which is a half decent ratio in this type of (handicap) event.

Windsor record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/13—Essenaitch (2 x good to soft)

1/9—Biotic (good)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Saturday 28th April

SANDOWN – APRIL 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £248.00 (6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced)

 

Breakdown of the percentage of successful units in each Placepot race last year and the prices of the horses which finished in the frame – favourites which finished out of the Placepot positions offered in brackets:

Race 1: 40.1% units went through – 5/1* - 11/2 – 16/1

Race 2: 30.7% of the remaining units when through – 9/4 & 15/8*

Race 3: 78.9% of the remaining units went through – 3/10* (Win only)

Race 4: 11.3% of the remaining units went through – 40/1 – 6/1 20/1 (9/2)

Race 5: 27.4% of the remaining units went through – 7/2 – 8/1 – 16/1 (5/2)

Race 6: 39.1% of the units secured the dividend – 3/1* - 7/1 – 14/1

 

Saturday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (1.50): 16 (Notre Ami), 13 (Going Gold), 2 (Highway One O One) & 10 (Show On The Road)

Leg 2 (2.25): 1 (Top Notch) & 6 (O O Seven)

Leg 3 (3.00): 1 (Altior) & 2 (Ar Mad)

Leg 4 (3.35): 11 (Carole’s Destrier), 17 (Rathlin Rose), 6 (Missed Approach), 13 (Minella Daddy) & 19 (The Young Master)

Leg 5 (4.05): 5 (Call Me Lord) & 3 (Wholestone)

Leg 6 (4.40): 11 (Silverhow), 10 (Ramonex) & 1 (Geordie Des Champs)

Suggested stake: 480 bets to 10p stakes

 

1.50: On a day in which his father’s name is remembered on one of the later races on the card, Nick Gifford would obviously like to secure a prize at this final meeting of the season and it’s worth noting that his representative NOTRE AMI is the only course winner in the line up.  It is raining as dawn breaks here in Bristol and yes, that message will give connections more confidence if the wet stuff moves onto Sandown not too late in the day.  Others of interest here include HIGHWAY ONE O ONE, SHOW ON THE ROAD and GOING GOLD.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Record of the course winner in the opening event:

1/2—Notre Ami (heavy)

 

2.25: It’s shame that Philip Hobbs could not find a decent representative in this event, the trainer (via Menorah) having won all four renewals of this event.  Upwards and onward by noting that three top trainers have all saddled a brace of representatives to complete the field of six starters, namely Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Tom George.  One way or the other, champion trainer Nicky Henderson is taken to snare the contest with TOP NOTCH and O O SEVEN who looks a little too big at 18/1 with BetBright this morning.

Favourite factor: Three of the four favourites thus far have gained Placepot positions (one winner), commemorating the great name of John Lawrence, or Lord Oaksey as he was better known in ‘recent’ years.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winners in the second contest:

1/1—Top Notch (soft)

1/2—O O Seven (soft)

 

3.00: Eight-year-olds have won five of the last ten renewals and shall we take it for granted that by 3.40 this afternoon, that ratio will have improved to 6/11 with last year’s winner ALTIOR having been declared.  It is (literally) impossible to oppose Nico De Boinville’s mount who has won all 13 races over obstacles this far.  Only a serious mistake can blemish that record I’ll wager in which case, AR MAD (if back to his best) might best take advantage if Altior fails to complete the course.

Favourite factor: All 16 winners have scored at 9/1 or less to date, whilst eleven market leaders have reached the frame, statistics which include five winners.

Record of the course winners in the Grade 1 Celebration Chase:

2/2—Altior (good & good to soft)

2/4—Ar Mad (2 x good to soft)

1/4—Special Tiara (good)

 

3.35: I was at Sandown in 1970 to watch Richard Pitman boot home Royal Toss in what was known as the 'Whitbread' for many years and the main reason for offering you that insight into my ‘dodgy upbringing’ was that Royal Toss was the first of 14 eight-year-old winners in ‘recent’ times.  If we add the 13 victories from nine-year-olds, we can quickly deduce that these vintages have accounted for 27/48 victories or if you prefer, 56.3% of the contests down the (relevant) years.  31 of the last 36 winners (86.1%) have carried a maximum burden of 11-2.  Eight-year-olds have won five of the last fourteen contests and putting the stats and facts together produces a speculative ‘short list’ of CAROLE’S DESTRIER, RATHLIN ROSE, MISSED APPROACH, MINELLA DADDY and THE YOUNG MASTER.  The quintet is listed in order of preference at the time of writing.

Favourite factor: Nine of the last 27 market leaders have claimed Placepot positions (one winner) during the more recent study period, whilst ten of the last nineteen winners scored at odds of 14/1 or more.

Record of the course winners in the big handicap on the card:

1/5—Houblon Des Obeaux (good to soft)

1/4—Benbens (good to soft)

1/1—Carole’s Destrier (good to soft)

3/5—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/2—The Young Master (good) – winner of this event in 2016

 

4.05: CALL ME LORD is asked to step up in trip but facing opponents that are struggling to find their best form of late, Nicky Henderson can saddle his third winner of this event in the last four years.  WHOLESTONE can be relied upon to give his usual gallant offering (probably without winning), whilst a victory for Lil Rockerfeller would be an apt winner on what usually turns out to be an emotional day.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have obliged to date at 9/4 (Nicky Henderson) and 15/8 & 7/4 (Paul Nicholls).

Record of the course winners in the fifth race:

2/3—Lil Rockerfella (good to soft & soft)

2/3—Call Me Lord (good & heavy)

 

4.40:  Seven-year-olds have won the last three (of just four) contests thus far, and I am expecting trend to be extended by the likes of SILVERHOW (offers plenty of value at 9/1 in places this morning), RAMONEX (can outrun his double figure price on the best of his form) and GEORDIE DES CHAMPS (Rebecca Curtis finally ending a wretched year in winning form of late).

Favourite factor: The toteplacepot finale rightly remembers the name of Josh Gifford.  Goodness knows what he and Terry Biddlecombe are up to as we wrap up the 2017/2018 NH season!  The entire racing world is that much poorer for the passing of two great names from the past, notwithstanding John Lawrence (in Lord Oaksey's previous guise) who is probably trying to bring the pair to order right now!  Only one of the four contests has produced a favourite to finish in the frame, which was last year’s 3/1 winner.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/8—Rayvin Black (soft & heavy)

1/3—Silverhow (soft)

 

Record of the course winners in the 7th (non Placepot) event at 5.15:

1/1--  Wait For Me (good) – won this race last year

1/1—Dashing Oscar (good to soft)

1/1—Soul Emotion )soft)

1/2—Landin (good)

1/1—Wolf Of Wendlesham (soft)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Friday 9th March

SANDOWN – MARCH 9

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £52.30 (6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Friday's Placepot permutation at Sandown: 

Leg 1 (2.00): 2 (Brianstorm) & 1 (Ar Mest)

Leg 2 (2.30): 8 (Kastani Beach), 2 (No Hiding Place) & 6 (Ratify)

Leg 3 (3.05): 1 (Westend Story) & 3 (Soul Emotion)

Leg 4 (3.40): 11 (Winter Lion), 1 (More Buck’s) & 4 (Baden)

Leg 5 (4.10): 1 (Tara Bridge), 3 (Darebin) & 2 (Big Jim)

Leg 6 (4.45): 3 (Lip Service), 7 (Lex Talionis) & 4 (Jet Set)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Friday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

2.00: Thanks for your patience yesterday and you were rewarded with a slight profit via the Placepot permutation, if you followed my permutation.  Nicky Henderson has saddled five of the last thirteen winners, a stat I have left in for those of you who retain records, with Nicky not being represented for the second successive season.  We are still left with two interesting horses to consider, with BRIANSTORM marginally preferred to AR MEST in what should amount to a ‘match’ a long way from home.

Favourite factor: Five favourites have won via the last thirteen renewals.  The thirteen gold medallists have scored at a top price of 7/1, whilst eleven recent market leaders secured toteplacepot positions.

 

2.30: I have a feeling that somebody in the office at William Hill is going to have their knuckles rapped this morning because win, lose or draw, 8/1 should not have been the price chalked up about KASTANI BEACH given his record in the race. Attracting potential ‘bet to nothing’ each way investments is invariably the wrong fork in the road to take, especially when the horse in question has finished in the frame in each of the last five renewals of a particular contest!  That is the record of KASTANI BEACH in this event and given that he won the race on one occasion (whilst the yard has won with two of their last five runners), you might expect there will be a red face hiding behind a newspaper this morning, whatever transpires.  Dangers include NO HIDING PLACE and RATIFY.  The ground has come right for Briac who might just save the blushes of the said individual though as a former Odds Complier myself I am all too aware that is not the point whatsoever, whereby the dreaded call into the Head Teacher’s study is inevitable!  Unlike in my day of course, corporal punishment is no longer politically (or lawfully) correct!

Favourite factor: Three clear market leaders have scored alongside two joint favourites via 19 renewals.  Fourteen of the twenty one jollies have reached the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winners in the field:

1/3—Briac (heavy)

1/5—Kastani Beach (good to soft)

 

3.05: WESTEND STORY would not have been entertained a week or three ago when Philip Hobbs was still trying to rediscover winning form but with the yard (hopefully) having turned the tide and his liking for soft/heavy ground in place, Philip’s Wetherby winner can take this event en route to better things.  SOUL EMOTION is likely to offer some sort of challenge if completing the course, something that Nicky Henderson’s new import has failed to so on his last two assignments. Perhaps a recent wind operation will bring about better timber topping on this occasion.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Sandown card.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.40: Paul Nicholls has won four of the last eleven renewals of the Grand Military Gold Cup having secured a hat trick between 2005 and 2007 (all favourites), with Paul saddling seven losers in the interim period.  Paul saddled his 'second string' to snare the silver medal three ago at odds of 11/2, his 5/4 favourite having finished well down the field.  Paul has decalred MORE BUCK’S this time around, though it is a little surprising that the Presenting representative is failing to attract any money early doors this morning.  I guess that last year’s winner RATHLIN ROSE is the main reason for horses on the slide, though merits of others such as BADEN and WINTER LION should be considered in a fascinating renewal.

Favourite factor: Favourites have won eight of the last fifteen renewals, though just five of the other thirteen favourites have additionally secured toteplacepot positions during the last nineteen years.

Record of the course winner in the fourth race:

1/2—More Buck’s (good)

3/3—Rathlin Rose (2 x soft & good to soft)

1/5—Arbeo (heavy)

 

4.10: On all known form, TARA BRIDGE should complete a hat trick here with just two rivals to beat.  Chris Gordon has his team in fine form as is usually the case at this time of the year, though the ground could be quite bad by the time that this event is contested.  For that reason,  the other runners are also included in the Placepot mix in this ‘win only’ contest.

Favourite factor: Only five of the seventeen favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date, statistics which include four winners.

Record of the course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/2—Tara Bridge (soft)

1/5—Darebin (soft)

 

4.45: LIP SERVICE, LEX TALIONIS and JET SET will hopefully land the dividend between them if we are live going into the final leg of our favourite wager.  This trio will offer better value for money that Three Star General likely as not.

Favourite factor: The Placepot finale is another new race ion the Sandown programme.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Sandown card on Friday – followed by their ratios at the track this season and then by their five year figures + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

3 runners—Fergal O’Brien (1/3 +5) – 8/20 +30

3—David Pipe (1/2 +1) – 7/53 – loss of 23 points

2—Ben Pauling (1/6 – loss of 3) – 1/20 – loss of 11

2—Nicky Henderson (6/16 – loss of 3) – 37/135 +13

2—Philip Hobbs (2/8 +3) – 16/78 +8

2—Charlie Mann (0/3) – 2/28 – loss of 2

2—Gary Moore (1/22 – loss of 16) – 22/113 +71

2—Neil Mulholland (0/6) – 5/25 +6

2—Seamus Mullins (1/4 +4) – 3/25 +4

+ 24 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

44 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £86.90 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Leicester: £27.20 – 6 favourites – 5 winners & 1 unplaced

Newcastle: £375.50 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 15th February

LEICESTER – FEBRUARY 15

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £110.50 (7 favourites: 2 winners--2 placed--3 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.40): 1 (Skipping On) & 4 (Glance Back)

Leg 2 (2.15): 6 (Grow Nasa Grow), 3 (Dylanseoghan) & 2 (Clondaw Westie)

Leg 3 (2.45): 5 (Colin’s Brother) & 3 (Crosspark)

Leg 4 (3.20): 2 (Chirico Vallis) & 1 (Tree Of Liberty)

Leg 5 (3.55): 4 (Timon’s Tara), 3 (Tara Mist) & 1 (Two Smokin Barrels)

Leg 6 (4.30): 1 (Hazel Hill), 5 (Trafalgar Rock) & 2 (Path To Freedom)

Suggested stake: 216 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.40: It’s a shame that we could not secure more than ten pence worth of yesterday’s £430.50 Musselburgh Placepot dividend but that said, we doubled our stake which I guess I would settle for on a daily basis!  SKIPPING ON and GLANCE BACK appear to hold their rivals on all known form in the opening race and the pair are very much listed in order of preference at the time of writing.  Laura Mongan (SKIPPING ON) has won with three of her last seven runners and the trainer can improve her recent strike rate ratio to 50% before another inmate takes its chance at Chelmsford this evening.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 10/3 favourite secured a Placepot position without winning the relevant race in a ‘short field’ contest. New readers might like to know that the term short field relates to 5/6/7 runner races in which only the first two horses home qualify from Placepot and each way perspectives.  Today’s opening race in one such event as are four others on the card, subject to non runners.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

1/7—Bally Lagan (good)

1/8—Lost In Newyork (good to soft)

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

2.15:  I tend to do better when supporting Zoe Davison’s outsiders than when Zoe saddles well fancied horses but that said, DYLANSEOGHAN has a second to none chance on the form book, albeit I will be adding GROW NASA GROW and CLONDAW WESTIE into the Placepot mix because of the initial comment I made. It’s sad to have to offer half of the field in the hope of progressing further in our favourite wager but in a poor race, I feel I have little option.

Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

2.45: All four winners to date have carried a maximum burden of 11-6 whereby Bright New Dawn is passed over, despite the positive ground factor for another of the Venetia Williams horses that tend to prefer wet conditions.  Upwards and onward by suggesting that COLIN’S BROTHER and last year’s winner CROSSPARK should take most advantage of the weight concession on this occasion. Creep Desbois is offered the reserve nomination, just in case the non runner board starts to heave under considerable pressure by mid-morning.

Favourite factor: Two of the four market leaders have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (7/4) winner.

Record of the course winners in the third event:

1/2—Crosspark (heavy)

 

3.20: Given the favourite stats below (albeit after only two renewals), it might take a brave investor to pile into TREE OF LIBERTY at around the 1/3 mark this morning, whereas 9/4 about CHIRICO VALLIS is a perfectly reasonable price in what amounts to a ‘match’, given that St Merryn would have to start about now to beat the other pair, barring accidents.

Favourite factor: Both favourites have been beaten in ‘win only’ races thus far.

 

3.55: TIMON’S TARA does not have to try and overcome a horse of Song Saa’s class, as was the case in this event last year and though Robin Dickin’s raider is one paced in the extreme, today could be the time to latch onto Jack Quinlan’s mount, especially with Robin boasting seasonal stats of 4/6 here at Fontwell, figures which have produced 21 points of level stake profit.  That said, TARA MIST and TWO SMOKIN BARRELS have to be added into the Placepot equation for fear of a withdrawal reducing this contest to a ‘win only’ event.

Favourite factor: Last year’s inaugural 4/6 market leader duly obliged.

 

4.30: For the same reason as in the previous contest (in terms of the projected numbers), HAZEL HILL, TRAFALGAR ROCK and PATH TO FREEDOM are all going to represent yours truly in the Placepot finale.  For the record, the trio are listed in order of preference.

Favourite factor: The inaugural 8/11 market leader prevailed before last year’s 9/4 favourite let the side down by being one of two runners which failed to complete the course.

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Thursday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3 runners—Dan Skelton (2/6 – slight loss) – 6/29 – loss of 1 point

2—Zoe Davison (1/9 – loss of 5) – 3/18 +12

2—Robin Dickin (4/6 +21) – 7/25 +14

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

33 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Kelso: £50.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 2 unplaced

Fontwell: £165.40 – 6 favourites – 4 winners & 2 unplaced

Chelmsford: £543.70 – 6 favourites – 2 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 15th February 2018

Wednesday's Result :

2.40 Towcester : Grand Introduction @ 5/2 BOG PU at 7/4 Prominent on outside, lost place before 5th, closed next, blundered and dropped to rear 7th, mistake next, blundered 12th, pulled up before 13th...

Next up is Thursday's...

2.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 3, 2m4.5f handicap chase on soft ground worth £8,837 to the winner...

Why?

This 8 yr old gelding won this race last year off a mark (132) just 2lbs lower than today, but that was on heavy ground and today's going is expected to be a little easier underfoot. To date, he has 2 wins and 3 places from 7 on soft ground, 3 wins and a place from 5 in fields of 5 to 8 runners and 2 wins from 3 at this trip, so conditions look ideal for him.

His win in this race last year makes him 1 from 1 over course and distance and none of his rivals have won over track nor trip, never mind both!

His trainer Caroline Bailey is 21/97 (21.65% SR) for 30.98pts (+31.9% ROI) here at Leicester since 2009 and these include...

  • handicappers : 17/68 (25%) for 27.74pts (+40.8%)
  • chasers : 16/66 (24.2%) for 40.76pts (+61.8%)
  • at trips of 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f : 14/59 (23.7%) for 40.4pts (+68.5%)
  • at odds of 5/1 and shorter : 17/40 (42.5%) for 33.69pts (+84.2%)
  • and 2017/18  :6/13 (46.2%) for 12.2pts (+93.8%)

Caroline Bailey / 2009-18 / Leicester / handicap chasers / priced at 5-1 and shorter over 2m4.5f to 2m7.5f = 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 17.27pts (+101.6% ROI), with 2017/18 showing 2 winners from 3 966.6%) for 8.33pts (+277.6%)

This horse is also a son of the mighty Midnight Legend and longer-term readers of my stuff will know of my fondness of this sire, mainly because his offspring win races and generate profit! One of my more generalised Midnight Legend micro-systems is at play here today and goes as follows...

UK NH jumps / 1m7f to 3m1f / good ground or softer / Class 2 to 4 / September to March / 5 to 8 yr olds / ran in past 8 months, but has had at least 3 weeks rest.

That's not as complicated in practice as it is in print and since the start of 2013, it has thrown up 129 winners from 705 (18.3% SR) runners from 281.48pts (+39.9% ROI), with the following subsets of data relevant today...

  • handicaps : 92/480 (19.2%) for 222.85pts (+46.4%)
  • males : 72/398 (18.1%) for 160.42pts (+40.3%)
  • chasers : 43/245 (17.6%) for 71.55pts (+29.2%)
  • soft ground : 50/238 (21%) for 130.73pts (+54.9%)
  • Class 3 : 51/199 (25.6%) for 203.2pts (+102.1%)
  • OR of 123 to 137 : 34/131 (26%) for 108.59pts (+82.9%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Crosspark @ 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 12.10am on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Wednesday 31st January

LEICESTER – JANUARY 31

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £570.80 (7 favourites – 2 winners – 3 placed – 3 unplaced)

 

Wednesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.15): 1 (Springtown Lake) & 2 (I’m Always Trying)

Leg 2 (1.45): 1 (Head To The Stars), 4 (Hit The Highway) & 3 (Du Soleil)

Leg 3 (2.15): 2 (Iniesta) & 5 (Indian Reel)

Leg 4 (2.50): 1 (Ballyarthur), 3 (Enola Gay) & 2 (Some Are Lucky)

Leg 5 (3.25): 2 (Lord Bryan), 1 (Bekkensfirth) & 6 (Go West Young Man)

Leg 6 (3.55): 9 (Georgieshore), 6 (Chandos Belle) & 7 (Tactical Manoeuvre)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Wednesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.15: Whilst SPRINGTOWN LAKE might look something of a good thing at around the 1/12 mark for openers, it’s worth reporting that the inmates at the Philip Hobbs yard are still not covering themselves in glory, despite a slight improvement of late.  Suffice to say that since the end of November, Philip’s ratio stands at 7/73 which by the trainer’s high standards is poor form and no mistake.  Indeed, 45 points of level stake investments have been lost.  With (literally) only I’M ALWAYS TRYING to beat, Richard Johnson should be aboard another winner but there is no way that I’m leaving the David Pipe raider out of the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: Market leaders came to the gig on a four timer last year but the trend went off the rails, with the even money favourite only managing to finish fourth of five.  I should also point out that a 2/7 favourite has been turned over in the past, hence the hesitancy to take out the mortgage money relating to the Hobbs representative this afternoon.  If anything, I would be looking to lay the favourite to small money.

 

1.45: HIT THE HIGHWAY demands respect given his course record on this type of ground, as does DU SOLEIL with the Venetia Williams runners invariably finding at least half a stone of improvement for plenty of give in the ground.  That all said, Henry Daly (HEAD TO THE STARS) has saddled seven of his last nineteen runners to winning effect, securing eighteen points of level stake profit into the bargain.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites (via three renewals) have claimed Placepot positions, statistics which include one (5/2) winner.

Record of course winners in the second race:

1/2—Head To The Stars (good to soft)

2/2—Hit The Highway (2 x heavy)

 

2.15: The terms and conditions of this claiming hurdle event favour INIESTA, though I doubt that the great Spanish player would be able to weave his magic against opposing teams on this type of surface, not once the runners have churned up the turf at least!  Upwards and onwards by suggesting that INDIAN REEL appeals as the main threat, especially as there is money in the dead of night for the Fergal O’Brien raider.  Emigrated might prove to be the value for money call to beat the others home.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Favourite factor: Two of the three favourites (winners at 7/4 and 4/5) havesecured Placepot positions to date, albeit supporters of the 10/11 market leader two years back were poorly represented.

 

2.50: Nigel Twiston-Davies is another of the top trainers who hit something of a poor patch of late, with his last eighteen runners having been beaten, three of which were returned as favourites.  It’s worth noting that thirteen of those beaten horses were returned in single figures.  That said, BALLYARTHUR stands head and shoulders above ENOLA GAY and SOME ARE LUCKY (beaten joint favourite in this race twelve months ago), whereby Nigel should get back on track in this grade/company.  The other pair are trained by top trainers however, whereby all three runners are entered into the Placepot equation.

Favourite factor: Two of the four favourites has finished in the money thus far (no winners).

Record of course winner in the fourth event:

1/2—Ballyarthur (ggod to soft)

 

3.25: Proven heavy ground winner LORD BRYAN is the first name on the team sheet, whilst I’ll wager that there will be worse outsiders on the card than GO WEST YOUNG MAN, albeit Henry Daly’s representative has his own ideas about the game from what we have witnessed thus far.  Providing he does not get bogged down in the mud, course and distance winner BEKKENSFIRTH should also be there or thereabouts at the business end of proceedings.

Favourite factor: Both favourites had claimed Placepot medals via silver medals before the Placepot treble was completed by last year’s bronze medallist.

Record of course winner in the fifth contest on the card:

1/1—Bekkensfirth (good to soft)

 

3.55: Providing that last week’s course and distance winner GEORGIESHORE has been given enough time to recover from his heavy ground exertions, Zoe Davison appears to have found an ideal opportunity for her Turtle Island gelding to follow up, especially with the sire having become famous via his soft/heavy ground representatives down the years.  Others to consider include CHANDOS BELLE and my each way speculative call TACTICAL MANOEUVRE.

Favourite factor: All three favourites have claimed Placepot positions to date via two silver medal efforts alongside last year’s 4/1 winner.

Record of course winners in the Placepot finale:

1/1—Ardmayle (soft)

1/2—Handsome Sam (heavy)

1/3—Georgieshore (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both fronts:

2 runners—Henry Daly (First runners at Leicester this season) – 3/14 +46

2—Zoe Davison (1/7 – loss of 3) – 3/16 +14

2—Jimmy Frost (First runners at Leicester this season) – 0/1

2—Matt Sheppard (0/2) – 4/20 +1

2—Evan Williams (0/6) – 1/14 – loss of 9

2—Venetia Williams (0/2) – 8/40 – loss of 16

+ 31 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

43 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Ayr: £156.40 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 3 unplaced

Chelmsford: £25.40 – 7 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle: £27.80 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Stat of the Day, 31st January 2018

Tuesday's Result :

2.15 Southwell : Kommander Kirkup @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 4/1 Soon outpaced in rear, headway over 1f out, ran on inside final furlong, never reached winner...

We end another profitable month with Wednesday's...

1.45 Leicester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG

A Class 3, 4yo+ Handicap Hurdle over 2m4.5f on Heavy ground worth £8,735 to the winner...

Why?

This 7 yr old gelding has 2 wins and a place from his last 6 starts including a win last time out (25 days ago) over a slighlty longer trip than today, but on similarly heavy ground under today's jockey at Wincanton, meaning that his hurdles career record now includes the following...

  • 2 wins and a place from with today's rider
  • a win and a place from three efforts at this trip
  • a win and a place from 2 visits to Leicester
  • a win and a place from 2 over course and distance
  • a win and a place from 2 on heavy ground
  • and he's 1 from 1 in January

Meanwhile, the rest of his stablemates at Henry Daly's yard also seem to be in fine form with a 30 day record of 9 wins from 25 (36% SR), a 14-day return of 4 from 11 (36.4%) and 2 winners from 5 (40%) over the past week.

Henry's LTO winners tend to fare well, too, winning 13 of 47 (27.7% SR) follow-up attempts since the start of 2016 producing level stakes profits of 15pts at an ROI of 31.9% and these 47 runners include...

  • at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 12/32 (37.5%) for 27.85pts (+87%)
  • handicaps : 8/28 (28.6%) for 10.23pts (+36.5%)
  • handicappers at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 8/21 (38.1%) for 17.23pts (+82%)
  • at Class 3 : 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.72pts (+30.2%)
  • Class 3 handicappers : 2/7 (28.6%) for 1.3pts (+18.6%)
  • Class 3 at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 3/6 (50%) for 5.72pts (+95.4%)
  • and Class 3 handicappers at odds of 15/8 to 7/1 : 2/5 (40%) for 3.3pts (+66%)

Whilst more generally, since the start of 2013 in Class 3 handicap hurdle contests, LTO winners with at least one course and distance win to their name are 57/212 (26.9% SR) for 161.3pts (+76.1% ROI) with those racing on heavy ground winning their fair share of races at 7 from 27 (25.9% SR) for 8.54pts (+31.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Head To The Stars @ 3/1 BOG which was available from Betfair, BetVictor, Coral & Paddy Power at 5.45pm on Tuesday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.45 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Placepot Pointers – Tuesday 23rd January

LEICESTER – JANUARY 23

 

Latest corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: £217.20 (7 favourites - 2 winners - 2 placed - 3 unplaced)

 

Tuesday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (1.00): 1 (Don Des Fosses) & 5 (Secret Legacy)

Leg 2 (1.30): 1 (Optimus Prime) & 2 (Rayvin Black)

Leg 3 (2.05): 2 (Arian), 3 (Kaloci) & 1 (Spice Girl)

Leg 4 (2.40): 2 (Lastbutnotleast), 1 (Antartica De Thaix) & 3 (Got Away)

Leg 5 (3.15): 2 (Shockingtimes), 4 (Mr Love) & 3 (San Pietro)

Leg 6 (3.50): 3 (Catchin Time), 5 (Delface) & 2 (Crafty Roberto)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Tuesday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

1.00: Five-year-olds have won three of the last four events when represented, with DON DES FOSSES the clear pick of the trio of relevant entries this time around.  Warren Greatrex has his team in particularly good order (stats of 7/16 of late) and this dual (bumper/point) winner meets these rivals on level terms which is something to behold.  The ground might offer more problems that the opposition on this occasion.  SECRET LEGACY is slightly preferred to Rosmuc Relay for the forecast call.
Favourite factor: The eight contests thus far have produced a top priced scorer of 9/1, though just two market leaders have prevailed.  Five of the eight favourites have claimed Placepot positions.

 

1.30: Four are set to face the starter but only two runners can be fancied via the form book, namely OPTIMUS PRIME and RAYVIN BLACK.  It’s the turn of the Dan Skelton trained OPTIMUS PRIME to be at the peak of his form just now, though we would not have to go too far back in time to find a level which RAYVIN BLACK ran to in order for the ‘race’ to become competitive when the whips are raised.  Both horses have handled these conditions well enough in the past to suggest that a ‘freak result’ is most unlikely, especially given the favourite stats below.
Favourite factor: Four of the five favourites have won their respective events at 1/20, 1/2, 4/6 & 8/11, though the other 11/10 market leader finished last of four in a 'win only' contest.

 

2.05: Six-year-olds have won five of the six renewals thus far, with vintage representatives on offer at 4/6 before the form book is consulted.  My preferred pair are ARIAN and KALOCI, with the 3/1 trade press quote about the first named John Flint raider looking a tad fanciful at the time of writing.  SPICE GIRL is the obvious danger to the vintage trend being improved upon, especially as Richard Johnson’s mount took in a much warmer event at Cheltenham the last day.  The worry however is that her four previous victories were all gained on much better ground than she will encounter today.

Favourite factor: The six favourites have secured two gold and two silver medals alongside toteplacepot positions, with search parties still out looking for the other (8/15 & 4/6) market leaders.

 

2.40: It would be churlish in the extreme to leave any of these three runners out of the Placepot mix, especially with the ‘outsider of three’ being unexposed to date, hailing from Oliver Sherwood’s yard which can bring horses along quickly at the ‘early stages’ of their respective careers.  That said, GOT AWAY is expected to give best to LASTBUTNOTLEAST and ANTARTICA DE THAIX this time around, but not with enough confidence to leave Oliver’s raider entirely out of the equation.
Favourite factor: Detectives are still out looking for last year’s inaugural 11/8 favourite.

Your first 30 days for just £1

 

3.15: All six winners have carried a minimum burden of 11-3 to date, stats which eliminate the bottom two horses in the handicap, including the projected favourite and course winner Dontminddboys.  Two of the three victories gained by SHIOCKINGTIMES have been on soft ground, albeit the ‘refusal’ at Wincanton the last day is something of a negative.  That said, Jamie Snowden has his team in wonderful order (four of the last six have won) whereby Brendan Powell’s mount has to enter calculations.  Others for the permutation are MR LOVE and SAN PIETRO who represent the Lucy Wadham and Donald McCain yards which are also in form at this moment in time.
Favourite factor: Six of the ten favourites have finished in the frame (exact science), statistics which include one winner.

Course winner in the fifth race:

1/1—Dontminddboys (good)

 

3.50: CATCHIN TIME is the each way call on the entire card from my viewpoint given the 8/1 quote which is freely available at the time of writing.  The only course winner in the field, Laura Hurley’s ten-year-old boasts a 4/10 record on heavy ground, conditions which should be in evidence all around the track by the time this race is contested this afternoon.  Five of his 13 wins have been recorded in January/February for good measure, whilst today’s rivals are not world-beaters in any shape or form, the pick of which might prove to be DELFACE and CRAFTY ROBERTO.
Favourite factor: Two of the three 4/1 co favourites snared Placepot positions in the inaugural contest two months ago, stats which included the winner of the contest.  Last year’s 7/2 market leader finished fourth, missing out on a Placepot position.

Course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Catchin Time (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Tuesday – followed by their seasonal (in brackets) and five year ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued on both counts:

3 runners—Zoe Davison (0/4) – 2/13 +13

3—Robin Dickin (2/4 +17) – 5/23 +10

3—Stuart Edmunds (1/2 – level profit/less on the year) – 1/8 – loss of 6 points

3—John Flint (First runners at Leicester this season) – 1/6 +1

2—Sarah-Jayne Davies (0/1) – 0/16

2—Alex Hales (1/4 – marginal loss) – 2/13 – loss of 4

2—Donald McCain (1/2 +1) – 3/20 – loss of 6

2—Henry Oliver (0/6) – 4/32 – loss of 17

2—Oliver Sherwood (0/3) – 2/15 – loss of 11

2—Aytach Sadik (0/2) – 0/4

2—Lucy Wadham (0/3) – 1/15 – loss of 9

2—Ian Williams (0/1) – 6/18 – marginal loss

+ 16 trainers with just one declaration on the card

44 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Wetherby: £72.90 – 6 favourites – 3 winners – 1 placed – 2 unplaced

Southwell: £55.90 – 8 favourites – 3 winners – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

 

 

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 11th January

CHELMSFORD – JANUARY 11

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2017: Meeting abandoned

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Chelmsford: 

Leg 1 (5.55): 1 (Titan Goddess), 4 (Nature Boy) & 7 (Ted’s Brother)

Leg 2 (6.30): 4 (Arnarson) & 7 (Murdanova)

Leg 3 (7.00): 3 (Tangramm) & 4 (Wimpole Hall)

Leg 4 (7.30): 1 (Western Way), 5 (Caracas) & 3 (Spiritoftomintoul)

Leg 5 (8.00): 3 (Arcadian Sea) & 1 (With Hindsight)

Leg 6 (8.30): 4 (Mercury), 1 (Spare Parts) & 3 (Kyllach Me)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

5.55: NATURE BOY would only have to ‘settle’ a little better than the last day to go very close on this grade/company.  As a six time winner however (notwithstanding five silver medal efforts), triple course winner TITAN GODDESS looks a more obvious call though the 5/4 quote (in a place) looks far too skinny to have a bet from a win perspective.  TED’S BROTHER (12/1 with Ladbrokes at the time of writing) represents some each way value if you are seeking an alternative option.

Record of the course winners in the opening event:

3/11—Titan Goddess

1/8—Spirited Star

1/11—Plucky Dip

1/2—Ted’s Brother

 

6.30: Ed Dunlop has won with the four of his last eight runners, stats which includes yesterday’s 10/1 loser which was beaten by less than lengths at Kempton.  We are clinging on to eight of the original nine runners at the time of writing though either way, Ed’s raider ANARSON should secure a Placepot position at the very least.  MURDANOVA is offered up as the alternative each way option.

Record of the course winners in the second race:

1/4—Cainhoe Star

1/7—Out Of The Ashes

 

7.00: I’m a little surprised that TANGRAMM was not put up a few ounces by the official assessor when running a good race (despite defeat) the last day.  Boasting 2/2 stats at this venue, Dean Ivory has found another half decent opportunity for his Sakhee’s Secret gelding who has won eight times on all weather surfaces.  From a value for money (Placepot) perspective, WIMPOLE HALL is preferred to Hairdryer as the main threat.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Record of the course winners in the third contest on the card:

1/5—Van Huysen

2/2—Tangramm

1/2—Wimpole Hill

2/5—Graceful James

1/3--Hairdryer

 

7.30: A dead eight event which is not for the feint hearted I’ll wager, with WESTERN WAY, CARACAS and SPIRITOFTOMINTOUL entrusted with the task of getting us through to the fifth leg of our favourite wager.  The horses are not listed in order of preference as there is no order of preference, with yours truly being quite content with just one of the trio securing a position if that’s the way things pan out.

 

8.00: ARCADIAN SEA looks the safest Placepot option in the penultimate leg but for those of you looking to back the William Jarvis representative to actually win the race, you should look away now. William has saddled ten horses during the month of January in the last two years without saddling a winner whilst according to my records, all 20 of William’s runners since September have failed to score!  Given the stats/circumstances, the aptly named WITH HINDSIGHT makes a little more appeal, though not enough to reach for my wallet and/or online account.

Record of the course winner in the fifth event:

1/5—Arcadian Sea

 

8.30: Much depends on whether SPARE PARTS turns up for the gig having won at Kempton last night.  Either way, the drop back in trio is not sure to suit perfectly given that these last two back-to-back victories were gained over what is often referred to as a ‘specialist seven furlong’ distance.  You are in a far better position than yours truly in terms of whether Phil McEntee’s Choisir gelding is turned out quickly again.  The positive course stats demand respect for MERCURY but not wishing to place all my eggs in the one basket should SPARE PARTS remain back at the ranch, I’m adding KYLLACH ME into the Placepot mix.

Favourite factor: This is the only race on the Placepot card which has any (limited) history.  The inaugural 2/1 favourite (two years ago) sneaked into the frame via a bronze medal effort.

Record of the course winners in the Placepot finale:

2/3—Mercury

2/7--Firesnake

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Chelmsford card on Thursday – followed by their career ratios at the track + profits/losses accrued:

2—Andrew Balding (19/144 – loss of 53 points)

2—Tony Carroll (14/115 – loss of 25)

2—Keith Dalgleish (4/27 – loss of 12)

2—Mark Gillard (0/5)

2—Richard Guest (10/61 +28)

2—William Jarvis (5/56 – loss of 16)

2—Phil McEntee (18/256 – loss of 67)

2—Bryan Smart (0/15)

2—Henry Spiller (3/36 + 11)

2—M Tompkins (14/132 – loss of 42)

2—Nark Usher (0/15)

+ 36 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

58 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: £24.00 – 6 favourites – 4 winners – 1 placed – 1 unplaced

Leicester: 891.20 – 6 favourites – 1 winner – 2 placed – 3 unplaced

Newcastle (A/W): £434.80 – 7 favourites – 3 winners – 3 placed – 2 unplaced

 

 

Placepot Pointers – Thursday 28th December

LEICESTER - DECEMBER 28

 

Last year’s corresponding toteplacepot dividend:

2016: £129.30 (6 favourites – 1 winner – 4 placed – 4 unplaced)

 

Thursday's Placepot permutation at Leicester: 

Leg 1 (12.55): 1 (Master Of Verse), 3 (Gregarious) & 2 (Accord)

Leg 2 (1.25): 10 (The Sweeney), 8 (Mon Eldorado) & 11 (Victarian)

Leg 3 (1.55): 2 (Bekkensfirth), 4 (Allee Bleue) & 5 (Crown Hill)

Leg 4 (2.30): 1 (Arthington) & 2 (Destrier)

Leg 5 (3.05): 2 (Cultivator) & 5 (Three Ways)

Leg 6 (3.40): 1 (Chieftan’s Choice), 4 (Billy Hicks) & 6 (Catchin Time)

Suggested stake: 324 bets to 10p stakes

 

Overview for Thursday - please scroll down to the bottom of the page

 

12.55: Just a reminder that there is an 8.00 inspection relating to this meeting.  The horses from the Venetia Williams yard seem to improve a stone overnight when the word heavy is mentioned in the going description, whereby MASTER OF VERSE is the first name on the team sheet ahead of GREGARIOUS and ACCORD.  There is little wrong with the form figures of Myroundorurs, though good ground is much more suitable for Robin Dickin’s raider.
Favourite factor: Two of the three (15/8 & 9/4) favourites have obliged to date, though last year’s 2/1 market leader was the only runner not to complete the course, when missing out on a Placepot position accordingly.

 

1.25: I tend to do better with the Emma Lavelle runners at the other end of the market, though there is no denying the Placepot chance of THE SWEENEY in this grade/company.  Having scored with just two of her 40 runners between the months over June and October, the popular trainer is working an 18% ratio at present following 11 subsequent winners during the closing two months of the year.  Others to consider include MON ELDORADO and VICTARIAN, though supporters of the latter named Philip Hobbs representative should note that the trainer has scored with just one of his last 36 runners.
Favourite factor: This is a new race on the Leicester card.

 

1.55: Eight-year-olds have won four of the last seven renewals, with seven-year-olds picking up the other three contests during that particular study period.  Dan Skelton is live to the ‘edge’ having declared eight-year-old BEKKENSFIRTH who could take this renewal, chiefly at the expense of the heavy ground course winners ALLEE BLEUE and CROWN HILL.
Favourite factor: Market leaders have secured two of the last nine contests during which time, only one of the other seven favourites additionally secured a Placepot position.

Record of the course winners in the third race on the card:

1/1—Bekkensfirth (good to soft)

Your first 30 days for just £1

1/1—Allee Bleue (heavy)

1/1—Crown Hill (heavy)

 

2.30: Although Alan King saddled a winner at the feature meeting yesterday, only one of his last twelve runners has prevailed, whereby the course winners ARTHINGTON and DESTRIER are preferred to Harefield.  None of the three has won under these type of conditions, though the soft ground course victory of ARTHINGTON gives him the edge from my viewpoint.
Favourite factor: This is another new contest on the Leicester programme.

Record of the course winners in the fourth race:

1/1—Arthington (soft)

1/1—Destrier (good to soft)

 

3.05: Potential conditions like those in place at Leicester today can make fools of anyone (particularly yours truly) but on all known evidence, we look to have the prospect of a ‘match event’ here with the likes of CULTIVATOR and THREE WAYS having been declared.  Victory for Jamie Snowden’s latter named raider would definitely have more significance back at the ranch compared to the Seven Barrows representative CULTIVATOR but having napped Nicky’s only Kempton runner successfully yesterday, I cannot ignore the claims of his six-year-old Alfora gelding in this weak event, especially as Nicky has saddled four of his last six runners to winning effect, taking his December haul to 24/77, a 31% strike rate which has yielded 16 points of level stake profit.
Favourite factor: The inaugural 1/3 favourite duly obliged, before last year’s 4/6 market leader found one too good, despite securing a Placepot position.

3.40:  Seven of the nine winners during the last eleven years carried a minimum of 11-1, stats which bring in the likes of CHIEFTAN’S CHOICE and BILLY HICKS.  That said, it would surely be churlish in the extreme to entirely rule out the heavy ground course winner CATCHIN TIME from a Placepot perspective at the very least.  Twelve assignments have come and gone since Win Place And Sho scored and whilst James Eustace seems to have placed his raider to good effect, the 6/4 quote does little to attract my attention.

Favourite factor: Market leaders have won the four of the last five renewals of the toteplacepot finale. Six of the nine favourites have finished in the frame (exact science).

Record of the course winner in the Placepot finale:

1/4—Catchin Time (heavy)

 

All place details offered on my pages relate to an 'exact science', whereby horses that finish third in 5/6/7 runner races (and other such scenarios) are not 'placed' regarding my statistics.

 

Trainers with their relevant number of runners (two or more) on the Leicester card on Thursday – followed by their ratios at the track this season + profits/losses accrued where relevant:

3 runners—Oliver Greenall (0/1)

2—David Bridgwater (0/1)

2—Philip Hobbs (First runners at Leicester this season)

2—Alan King (First runners at Leicester this season)

2—Seamus Mullins (1/1 +3)

2—Dan Skelton (1/3 +1)

2—Colin Tizzard (0/1)

2—Christian Williams (0/3)

2—Evan Williams (0/5)

+ 26 different trainers who each saddle just one runner on the card

45 declared runners

 

General overview - Corresponding Placepot dividends from last year:

Catterick: Meeting abandoned

Lingfield: £20.90 (8 favourites – 2 winners – 4 placed – 2 unplaced)