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Stat of the Day, 22nd April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

1.50 Musselburgh: Port Swtan @ 9/2 BOG Fell at 5/2 (Chased leaders on inside, went wrong and fell over 3f - fatally injured)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.20 Wolverhampton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 7-runner, Class 5 Handicap for 3yo fillies over 7f on Standard worth £3752 to the winner...

Why?...

It's deja vu, as Matt steps in for Chris on another Monday and looks to replicate the 5/1 winning trick of my previous temporary stewardship. Specifically...

James Tate's three-year-old Morpheus filly is making her handicap debut in this contest. The trainer continues to  excel with handicap debutant(e)s and has now won with 13 of the 39 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +16.19, A/E 1.8).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 112111278611126.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with five of the 13 runners he's sent out in the past fortnight (38.46%, +1.63, A/E 1.2). In the past 30 days, his record is 9/25, and again positive figures for P/L and A/E.

The trainer record at Wolverhampton is remarkable in the past year: eight winners from 16 runners (50% SR, +18.75, A/E 1.96).

Evolutionary has a bit to find on the book with the likes of favourite Diamond Oasis, but she's likely to improve notably for her first run of the year and the first attempt at handicap company. As always, the price - along with the stat - makes the play...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Evolutionary @ 11/2 BOG which was available generally at 7.10pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Wolverhampton: Zapper Cass @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, soon driven to challenge, kept on well towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Sameem @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

James Tate's three-year-old New Approach colt is making his handicap debut in this contest. The trainer excels with handicap debutants and has won with 12 of the 36 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +15.19, A/E 1.85).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 6112111278611.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with four of the eleven runners he's had in the past fortnight (36.36%, +7.63, A/E 1.52). Two more have made the frame in that time.

A winner on his previous start by no less than six lengths, staying on over 7 1/2 furlongs at Beverley, the step up in trip looks ideal for Sameem, but it is the switch to handicaps that catches the eye. Tate is three-from-five in the past year with such horses when they won their last start (60%, +5.33, A/E 1.95)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sameem 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 8th April 2019

Saturday's pick was...

8.00 Wolverhampton: Zapper Cass @ 5/1 BOG 4th at 7/2 (In touch, headway to chase leaders over 2f out, soon driven to challenge, kept on well towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.30 Redcar:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Sameem @ 5/1 BOG

...in an 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good to firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

James Tate's three-year-old New Approach colt is making his handicap debut in this contest. The trainer excels with handicap debutants and has won with 12 of the 36 he's saddled in the past year (33.33%, +15.19, A/E 1.85).

Indeed, in the last four months, Tate's form with first time handicap runners reads 6112111278611.

Tate is in excellent form recently, too, having scored with four of the eleven runners he's had in the past fortnight (36.36%, +7.63, A/E 1.52). Two more have made the frame in that time.

A winner on his previous start by no less than six lengths, staying on over 7 1/2 furlongs at Beverley, the step up in trip looks ideal for Sameem, but it is the switch to handicaps that catches the eye. Tate is three-from-five in the past year with such horses when they won their last start (60%, +5.33, A/E 1.95)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Sameem 5/1 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.35pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.30 Redcar

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

P.P.S. I'm out of the country for most of April, but SotD will still be here every day, albeit in slightly different circumstances, click here for the end of March update which explains the plan in fuller detail!

Stat of the Day, 25th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Lingfield : Executive Force @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along 2f out, headway entering final furlong, ridden and stayed on to lead close home, won gamely by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old filly making just her sixth start, having finished 313 in her last three outings and was beaten by less than a length last time out. That was at Lingfield 10 days ago in a similar Class 5, 6 furlong contest to this one.

Her trainer James Tate is 11 from 32 (34.4% SR) over the last 60 days and 5 from 16 (31.25%) in the past month, whilst on the All-Weather at trips shorter than 10 furlongs, his runners are 38/166 (22.9% SR) for 57.5pts (+34.7% ROI) since the start of 2018, including of relevance today...

  • at Class 5 : 26/118 (22%) for 32.3pts (+27.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 10/1 are 35/106 (33%) for 70.6pts (+66.6%)
  • in handicaps : 19/61 (31.2%) for 18.2pts (+29.9%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 13/53 (24.5%) for 8.2pts (+15.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 13/46 (28.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.8%)
  • and with David Allan in the saddle : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.53pts (+19.1%)

...whilst in Class 5 handicaps shorter than 10/1, these runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 26.45pts (+110.2% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 (50%) for 13.75pts (+171.8%) here at Wolverhampton...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, 888Sport & BetVictor at 7.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

3.10 Lingfield : Executive Force @ 11/4 BOG WON at 7/2 (Close up, pushed along 2f out, headway entering final furlong, ridden and stayed on to lead close home, won gamely by a neck)

Monday's pick runs in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 5, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on Tapeta worth £3752 to the winner... 

Why?...

Well, I'm going to keep it fairly simple today with a 3 yr old filly making just her sixth start, having finished 313 in her last three outings and was beaten by less than a length last time out. That was at Lingfield 10 days ago in a similar Class 5, 6 furlong contest to this one.

Her trainer James Tate is 11 from 32 (34.4% SR) over the last 60 days and 5 from 16 (31.25%) in the past month, whilst on the All-Weather at trips shorter than 10 furlongs, his runners are 38/166 (22.9% SR) for 57.5pts (+34.7% ROI) since the start of 2018, including of relevance today...

  • at Class 5 : 26/118 (22%) for 32.3pts (+27.4%)
  • those sent off shorter than 10/1 are 35/106 (33%) for 70.6pts (+66.6%)
  • in handicaps : 19/61 (31.2%) for 18.2pts (+29.9%)
  • here at Wolverhampton : 13/53 (24.5%) for 8.2pts (+15.4%)
  • in Feb/March : 13/46 (28.3%) for 17.4pts (+37.8%)
  • and with David Allan in the saddle : 3/8 (37.5%) for 1.53pts (+19.1%)

...whilst in Class 5 handicaps shorter than 10/1, these runners are 12 from 24 (50% SR) for 26.45pts (+110.2% ROI), including 4 winners from 8 (50%) for 13.75pts (+171.8%) here at Wolverhampton...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Distant Mirage 3/1 BOG which was available from Bet365, 888Sport & BetVictor at 7.50pm on Sunday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th September 2018

Monday's Pick was...

4.00 Hamilton : Where's Jeff @ 4/1 BOG 3rd at 2/1 (Tracked leaders on inside, pushed along 3f out, kept on same pace final furlong, went 3rd post) 

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

5.45 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG  

In a 12-runner, Class 5, A/W Nursery for 2yo over 1m on Polytrack, worth £4658 to the winner...

A 2 yr old colt who was unimpressive on Turf if I'm honest, failing to make the frame in any of his five efforts over trips of 5, 5.5, 6 and 7 furlongs. He was then switched to the A/W four weeks ago and has gone 2 from 2 since, winning by 5 lengths at Lingfield and then again 5 days later at Newcastle by 2 lengths 22 days ago. The first of those wins was the only that he has been ridden by today's jockey, the in-form Oisin Murphy (more on him shortly!)

Trainer James Tate is 15 from 48 (31.25% SR) for 13.8pts (+28.8% ROI) here at Chelmsford with horses priced at evens to 6/1, from which...

  • in handicaps : 9/31 (29%) for 13.18pts (+42.5%)
  • September to November : 7/15 (46.7%) for 12.71pts (+84.7%)
  • 2 yr olds : 5/13 (38.5%) for 8.92pts (+45.5%)
  • Class 5 : 4/11 (36.4%) for 5.04pts (+45.8%)
  • Nurseries : 2/3 (66.6%) for 8.2pts (+273.2%)

I mentioned that our jockey Oisin Murphy was in good touch of late and this thought is verified by his 27 winners from 120 (22.5% SR) over the last 30 days that have generated 32.3pts profit at an ROI of 26.9%, whilst overall in Class 5/6 handicaps here at Chelmsford, he is 17/95 (17.9%) SR) for 23.9pts (+25.2% ROI) and these include...

  • at 1m and beyond : 14/61 (23%) for 33.7pts (+55.2%)
  • at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 : 13/48 (27.1%) for 29.3pts (+61.1%)
  • and at odds of 6/4 to 7/1 over trips of 1m and beyond : 11/31 (35.5%) for 37.2pts (+119.9%)

And I'm going to wrap this one up with a quick nod towards our boy's sire, Moohaajim, who was very lightly raced, but won 2 of 5 starts including a Group 2 contest. This season is the first that his progeny have hit the track and after a slow start to the season, his offspring are firing the winners in. Over the last week, his 2 yr olds are 7 from 18 (38.9% SR) for 89.2pts (+495.8% ROI), from which...

  • those sent off at odds of 4/1 and shorter have won 6 of 9 (66.6%) for 14.62pts (+162.5%)
  • handicappers are 3/6 (50%) for 4.7pts (+78.4%)
  • on the A/W : 3/5 (60%) for 6.72pts (+134.4%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Hard Taskmaster @ 3/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.00pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

The Lincoln – O’Meara to show that all that Glitters is Gold

I’d be lying if I said the Cheltenham Festival went well from a punting perspective. I spent the week siding with favourites that lost and opposing those that romped home. But like a phoenix rising from a Prestbury Park Pyre, I intend to get back on track, with the aid of a change of code.

The curtain lifts on a new turf flat season, with the Lincoln Handicap Saturday’s highlight at Doncaster. Run over a straight mile, the race has a habit of producing upsets. Four of the last six renewals have gone to those at odds of 20/1 or greater. There’s only been two successful favourites in the last dozen years. Richard Fahey has a strong recent record with a couple of wins in the last six. He often arrives mob-handed with his most prominent pair last year finishing fourth and fifth.

The Malton handler sends three into battle this time round, with last year’s fourth Gabrial having another crack. A former winner of the race, he’s now a nine-year-old and arrives on a 4lb lower mark than 12 months ago. He was a cracking fifth in the valuable Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day back in October. That performance came on this type of ground and a repeat would see him terrific value at 33/1. It’s four, five and six-year-olds that tend to win the Lincoln, though this fella looks sure to go close again.

Stamp Hill appears to be Fahey’s other major hope. The five-year-old needs to improve off a career high mark but will love the ground, and his trainer sounded more than hopeful in his Sporting Life column yesterday. A course winner, he needs to see out the trip and is another 33/1 shot with a fair chance.

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Michael Bell’s Fire Brigade has been all the rage at the head of the market. He put in a string of solid performances as a three-year-old when only out of the frame twice in 10 starts. Up just 4lbs from last season’s concluding mark, you’d be hopeful that he’s strengthened physically since October and with ground in his favour he looks a major player.

On last year’s form he’s closely matched with the William Haggas-trained Addeybb. This four-year-old by Pivotal will also appreciate ground conditions and finished just ahead of Fire Brigade when winning over a furlong further at Newmarket back in September. The pair are closely matched in the betting and look sure to finish close on the track. It’s pretty much guesswork as to who will have improved the most for a winter’s break. They’re hard to split on known form.

Lord Glitters was an emphatic winner of the Balmoral on this type of ground and followed that performance with a close second in a listed event at Newmarket, when probably not favoured by a small field. Winning top-weights are rare, with Babodana in 2004 the last. Yet David O’Meara’s five-year-old still looks unexposed to me and the ground looks key to his chances. I’d be surprised if he didn’t go very close.

Dark Red is capable of a big run having gone close in the Balmoral behind Lord Glitters. The ground isn’t an issue and he’s better off at the weights with his Ascot nemesis. I’d be surprised if he won but he’s another 33/1 shot with a fair chance at placing.

The James Tate-trained Via Via also looks over-priced on his performance behind Lord Glitters at Newmarket. This six-year-old, by Lope De Vega, is lightly raced and should enjoy both track and ground. His handicap mark of 101 is 6lb lower than Lord Glitters and I fancy he’ll go very close.

Taking on favourites has not gone well for me in recent weeks but I’ll be doing so again tomorrow. Lord Glitters will be tucked away in this big field and delivered as late as possible. I take him to defy top-weight and add to that impressive Balmoral success. I fancy Via Via is far to big at 33s and he’ll be my each-way punt.

Best of luck to all those having a crack at this prestigious and valuable handicap.

Go for Garfield in Mill Reef Puzzler

As I write my Friday piece, Saturday’s card at Ayr has just been abandoned, and so I’ve decided to preview the Group Two Mill Reef Stakes form Newbury.

Established in 1972, and named after one of the greats, the six-furlong contest has been won by future high-class milers, along with thoroughbreds destined for stardom as sprinters.

Excellent Art was victorious in 2006, and the following year became an outstanding miler. Having finished an unlucky fourth in the French Guineas, he landed the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot, defeating dual-Guineas winner Cockney Rebel in the process. He was then unfortunate enough to finish runner-up in the Sussex Stakes, the QEII, and the Breeders’ Cup Mile in America. He was retired to stud after a disappointing performance in Hong Kong.

Dark Angel won the 2007 Mill Reef, and went on to take the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket. Barry Hills seemed pretty sure he had a potentially high-class sprinter on his hands, but in his final juvenile outing, the grey son of Acclamation was stepped up to contest the Dewhurst. He failed to see-out the trip and faded badly late on. Sadly, he was never seen on a racetrack again, though made a stunning impact at stud. Lethal Force, Mecca’s Angel and Harry Angel are just a few of his outstanding progeny.

Almost a decade later another future top-class miler was adding his name to the Mill Reef roll of honour.

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Ribchester had finished second in the Gimcrack prior to winning at Newbury. As a three-year-old he was stepped up to a mile, and finished a creditable third in the Guineas at Newmarket. He then won the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, before again taking on the best milers at Goodwood in the Sussex Stakes. He finished powerfully, though ultimately was unable to catch The Gurkha and Galileo Gold. He then won a high-class event at Deauville before chasing home Minding in the QEII at Ascot. Ribchester has again proved his class at four, landing the Lockinge, Queen Anne and Prix du Moulin.

A year after Ribchester’s Mill Reef success, we were back to a tip-top sprinter winning the event. For 2016 saw the arrival of Harry Angel, announcing himself as a colt with huge potential when comfortably winning the Newbury Group Two. Now at three, he has fulfilled that early promise, winning the Sandy Lane Stakes, the July Cup, and then trouncing the field in Haydock’s Sprint Cup.

It would be lovely to think Saturday’s field contained the next Ribchester or another Harry Angel, but in all honesty, the entrants look a little exposed, with the favourite having run six times, and only won twice. That’s not to say that the field is devoid of talent. Nebo is a two-time Group Two runner-up. Invincible Army was runner-up in the Molecomb Stakes and the Gimcrack. Whilst James Garfield lost the Group Three Acomb Stakes by a whisker. But whether we have a truly outstanding colt in the line-up remains to be seen.

Invincible Army is likely to go off favourite and is trained by James Tate. The Newmarket handler almost landed the Group Two Champagne Stakes last week at Doncaster when his Hey Gaman was chinned late-on by Seahenge. He’ll be hopeful of going one better this weekend, though his juvenile is reliable rather than exceptional. He proved no match for Sands Of Mali in the Gimcrack at York, though stayed on well enough for second. He also put in a decent performance at Goodwood in the Molecomb at five-furlongs, when runner-up to the talented Havana Grey. In a Mill Reef that probably lacks a standout, he looks sure to go close.

James Garfield is next best in the betting, and was mightily unfortunate not to have landed the Group Three Acomb Stakes at York last time. He came off second best to Wells Farhh Go in a thriller, losing out by a nose. Prior to that he’d finished fourth to the exceptional Expert Eye at Goodwood. Stepping back in trip here, he doesn’t look short of pace and should be fine on what is set to be quick ground. Frankie Dettori was onboard last time and retains the ride. He should be involved at the finish.

Jeremy Noseda’s Lansky was almost four-lengths back in the Acomb, but that was only his second run, and there’s plenty of room for improvement in this handsome looking colt. A son of Dark Angel out of a Zafonic mare, his action suggests a sounder surface would suit. I fancy he’ll finish much closer to James Garfield this time. Jamie Spencer is onboard, so expect to see him arrive late on the scene.

Enjazaat is prominent in the market and looked impressive at Ripon last time. Prior to that he had finished behind Invincible Army in a hot looking Group Two at Newmarket. He’s certainly bred for the task, being a son of Acclamation out of a Green Desert mare, and trainer Owen Burrows is in the midst of a good spell. Carrying the silks of Hamdan Al Maktoum, much will depend on whether he’s improved enough physically to reverse form with Invincible Army. It’s certainly possible.

Nebo was disappointing last time in the Gimcrack, but is possibly better judged on his performance when second to Gustav Klimt in the Superlative at Newmarket in July. A repeat of that performance would see him go close, and Ryan Moore is booked to take the ride. A rapid six furlongs looks ideal for this son of Kodiac, and he’s another that should be in the shake-up.

Staxton is another that cannot be dismissed. Slowly away in the Gimcrack, he was always having to claw back ground and did well to finish a close fifth. He has a couple of lengths to find on Invincible Army, but with a cleaner break has every chance of doing so. Nebo was behind him that day and at 16/1 he could be the each-way value in the race. Trained by Tim Easterby, along with the aforementioned Wells Farhh Go, this fella has every chance of running a huge race.

It’s a competitive renewal and the winner will be hard to find. I’m edging towards James Garfield, though am far from confident. Staxton looks a fair each-way shout at the odds. Best of luck to those risking a punt.

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2017

Friday's Result :

7.45 Wolverhampton : Oor Jock @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 13/8 In touch, headway over 1f out, ridden and every chance inside final furlong, stayed on, but beaten by 3/4 length.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

6.45 Wolverhampton...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Amazement11/4 BOG

Why?

A four year old gelding who was a course and distance winner under today's jockey, Luke Morris, by 2.25 lengths when last seen 23 days ago, taking his recent record to 3 wins and 2 places from his last seven outings, including 2 wins and a place from 4 races on the All-Weather.

And not only has he proven his suitability for the task in hand, a quick look at his trainer's record over the last couple of years is reassuring, as in that time James Tate's handicappers racing at trips of 6f to 10f are 45 from 205 (22% SR) for level stakes profits of 84.3pts at an ROI of 41.1%.

Those are great figures and in the context of today's race, those 205 runners are...

  • 29/126 (23%) for 90.7pts (+72%) off a break of 16-90 days
  • whilst those priced at 6/1 and shorter are 37/19 (31.1%) for 55.4pts (+46.6%)
  • on the A/W, he is 30/115 (26.1%) for 52pts (+45.2%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 17/87 (19.5%) for 29.4pts (+33.8%)
  • 4 yr olds are 10/37 (27%) for 33.5pts (+90.5%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 8/35 (22.9%) for 10.7pts (30.6%)

All of the above are applicable here today, of course...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Amazement 11/4 BOG which was widely available at 8.15pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 6.45 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 23rd February 2017

Wednesday's Result :

7.15 Kempton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG 5th at 3/1 Awkwardly away, behind, headway over 1f out, ridden and ran on inside final furlong, not reach leaders

Thursday's pick goes in the...

8.00 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Amazement 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding has 2 wins and 2 places from his last 6 outings and has already won over 9f (9.5f today), has won under Luke Morris, has won at Class 4, has won on Tapeta at Newcastle and was a runner-up on his only previous visit here.

His trainer, James Tate, has done well in recent times with his A/W handicappers with a 21/86 (24.4% SR) for 30.65pts (+35.6% ROI) record since the start of 2016. Of those 86 A/W 'cappers...

  • those racing over 6f to 12f are 21/81 (25.9%) for 35.65pts (+44%)
  • 3/4 yr olds are 19/69 (27.5%) for 37.3pts (+54.1%)
  • those ridden by Luke Morris are 11/47 (23.4%) for 4.8pts (+10.2%)
  • at Class 4 : 9/44 (20.5%) for 30.1pts (+68.3%)
  • on Tapeta : 9/34 (26.5%) for 16.8pts (+49.5%)
  • and here at Wolverhampton : 6/24 (25%) for 12.43pts (+51.8%)

AND...when Luke Morris rode 3/4 yr olds over 6-12 furlongs = 11/36 (30.6% SR) for 15.8pts (+43.8% ROI), from which...

  • Class 4 = 4/17 (23.5%) for 14pts (+82.1%)
  • on Tapeta : 6/14 (42.9%) for 19.1pts (+136.6%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 4/9 (44.4%) for 13.6pts (+150.9%)

Amazement is by Lope de Vega, whose offspring are 45/277 (16.25% SR) for 50.2pts (+18.1% ROI) since the start of 2015, including...

  • over 7f to 11f : 37/225 (16.4%) for 66.9pts (+29.7%)
  • males are 34/207 (16.4%) for 40.6pts (+19.6%)
  • at odds of 5/2 to 8/1 : 36/149 (24.2%) for 84.2pts (+56.5%)
  • on the A/W : 12/61 (19.7%) for 30.1pts (+49.4%)
  • at Class 4 : 10/53 (18.9%) for 21.5pts (+40.6%)
  • on Tapeta : 6/21 (28.6%) for 37pts (+176.1%)
  • at Wolverhampton : 3/15 (20%) for 5.4pts (+36%)

AND...males priced at 5/2 to 8/1 over trips of 7 to 11 furlongs are 24/90 (26.7% SR) for 73.8pts (+82% ROI), with...

  • Class 4 runners winning 6 of 25 (24%) for 12.95pts (+51.8%)
  • on the A/W : 6/23 (26.1%) for 16.1pts (+70%)
  • on Tapeta : 5/10 (50%) for 19.94pts (+199.4%)
  • and at Wolverhampton 3/7 : 42.9%) for 13.4pts (+191.4%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Amazement @ 3/1 BOG which was available with half a dozen or so firms at 5.30pm on Wednesday, but DO take the 10/3 BOG on offer with Bet365 if you can! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.00 Wolverhampton

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 16th August 2016

Monday's Result :

3.00 Chelmsford : Santiburi Spring @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 3/1 (Tracked leaders, ridden to lead over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, lost 2nd towards finish)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

7.30 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mayasa at 4/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly is returning from a well earned six week break after a course and distance win here last time out capped a fine run of form where she finished 1231 (all on the A/W). That run last time out was her first crack at this trip and she's the only course and distance winner in the field.

As a 3 yr old in a 3yo+ handicap, she gets a very handy/useful 10lbs weight for age allowance and in support of her chances, it's worth mentioning that she's 2 from 5 in the blinkers she wears today, she's 2 from 4 within 50 days of her last run and 2 from 2 when shorter than 8/1.

Her trainer, James Tate is having an excellent August, with 5 wins from 20 (25% SR) so far, generating profits of 10.43pts (+52.15% ROI), with his handicappers winning 5 of 16 (31.25%) for 14.43pts (+90.2%).

He also does well here at Wolves with 47 winners from 232 (20.3% SR) for 28.9pts (+12.5% ROI) since 2013, from which...

  • females are 24/127 (18.9%) for 28.5pts (+22.5%)
  • those last seen 21 to 75 days ago are 24/95 (25.3%) for 67.8pts (+71.3%)
  • and those ridden by Martin Harley are 3/15 (20%) for 6.72pts (+44.8%)

and females returning from a break of 31-75 days are 9/30 (30%) for 59.5pts (+198.4%).

As seen above Martin Harley has a 20% strike rate from a small sample size of Tate runners here at Dunstall Park, but that's unsurprising to me, because he's actually ridden 72 winners from 409 (17.6% SR) rides at this venue since 2012, returning level stakes profits of some 233pts at an ROI of 57%.

...all of which points to... a 1pt win bet on Mayasa at 4/1 BOG, which was offered by 10BET, Betfair Sports, BetVictor and Coral at 5.55pm, a price still on offer in four places after my update at 7.50pm.

Those of you unable/unwilling to use any of those firms can avail yourselves of the 7/2 BOG which is in plentiful supply elsewhere and to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.30 Wolverhampton.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 6th July 2016

Tuesday's Result :

5.55 Wolverhampton : Isharah @ 5/1 BOG 2nd at 9/4 (Mid-division, headway over 2f out, chased leaders approaching final furlong, stayed on well, never reached winner who held on by a neck.) Joe Fanning is normally an excellent judge of pace, but I can't help but feel he let the winner have too much of a free role up front. Isharah finished strongest of all, but was either set for home fractionally too late or he'd been held back slightly too far.

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

5.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Mukaabra at 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old filly has a handicap mark of 80, but gets a very useful 9lbs weight for age allowance here and she has made an excellent start to her racing career, finishing 113 in her three starts to date.

She won on debut over 7f on Lingfield's A/W track in February, before an 11 week break ahead of a turf debut over this 1m trip on good to firm ground at Newmarket in May. She then returned to that same course and distance, but on unsuitably good to soft ground where she finished just 2.25 lengths behind a horse rated 4lbs better than her, but who carried a pound less than her after allowances.

No disgrace in losing that race at all, but a return to quicker ground should see her continue her progression here.

My confidence is boosted by the fact that since the start of the 2012 Flat campaign, horses aged 3 to 5 who won their penultimate run bfore being beaten into 2nd, 3rd or 4th LTO 16-60 days ago are 261/1456 (17.9% SR) for 345.7pts (+23.7% ROI) over trips of a mile and shorter. And of those 1456 runners...

  • those now rated 0 to 3lbs higher than LTO are 198/1044 (19%) for 395.2pts (+37.9%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO are 186/958 (19.4%) for 267.6pts (+27.9%)
  • females are 100/527 (19%) for 395.2pts (+37.9%)
  • those racing on good to firm ground are 102/496 (20.6%) for 189.8pts (+38.3%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 65/333 (19.5%) for 110.8pts (+33.3%)

And in additon to the above, Mukaabra's yard is in fine form too, with 4 winners and 3 placers from just 10 runners over the last week, including a win in Tuesday's SotD race!

Trainer James Tate is also 6/24 in handicaps here at Yarmouth over the last 2.5 seasons, whilst jockey Martin Harley's record here over trips of 5 to 9 furlongs stands at 16/67 (23.9%) for 68.6pts profit at an ROI of 102.4%, of which he's 11/35 (31.4%) for 33.2pts (+94.9%) on ground quicker than good...

...so, the play is a 1pt win bet on Mukaabra at 3/1 BOG with any of the half dozen or so firms showing that price at 6.55pm, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 5.10 Yarmouth

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2015

Stat of the Day, 22nd October 2015

Wednesday's Result :

4.55 Newmarket : Nice Future @ 4/1 BOG : 6th at 11/4 fav (Prominent, led over 3f out until ridden over 2f out, kept on same pace final furlong)

Thursday's selection runs in the...

8.55 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Slovak at 100/30 BOG (generally)

Why?

Firstly, she's trained by James Tate who has had some success from a small number of winners at this venue this year, with 4 of his 20 representatives going on to win. All four winners came from the 10 runners sent off at odds of evens to 6/1 and these 10 runners have generated 10.51pts profit so far, broken down as follows...

  • females are 3 from 8 for 5.43pts
  • handicappers are 3 from 6 for 11.74pts
  • Class 5/6 runners are 3 from 5 for 12.75pts
  • 3 yr olds are 2 from 4 for 6.66pts
  • milers are 2 from 3 for 6.85pts

Slovak is, of course, a 3yr old filly running is a 1m handicap! She'll be ridden by Adam Kirby today, who is 4 from 6 for 11.42pts on James Tate's handicappers this year and despite none of those rides coming here at Chelmsford, Adam has a good record here of his own, winning 8 of 64 rides this year.

Of his 54 rides at the track this year his record on horses priced at 10/11 to 15/4 stands at 7 winners from 20(35% SR) for 4.61pts (+23.1% ROI) profit and with his ride on Slovak in mind, those 20 runners are...

  • 5/16 for 2.9pts in handicaps
  • 4/8 for 7.6pts on 3 yr olds
  • 4/8 for 5.8pts over 1m/1m2f
  • 4/7 for 5.9pts at Class 5
  • 3/5 for 3.9pts on females

Slovak was a winner at Wolverhampton two starts and 48 days ago before a four week break ahead of a return to the same track to finish 4th, beaten by 2.25 lengths 20 days ago. Both of those races were over 7f and she now steps up to a mile and runs off the same mark as last time out.

Since the start of 2012 horses aged 3 to 5 running at a mile or shorter 16 to 60 days after a 2nd, 3rd or 4th place finish last time out and who had won their penultimate outing, then returned to winning ways on 331 of 1882 (17.6% SR) occasions, producing 274.7pts of level stakes profits.

1882 is a lot of bets from one angle in less than 4 yrs, so let's break it down slightly...

  • those priced at 7/4 to 9/1 are 264/1353 (19.5% SR) for 198pts (+14.6% ROI)
  • those beaten by a short head to 3 lengths (max) are 245/1262 (19.4% SR) for 243.8pts (+19.3% ROI)
  • females are 120/695 (17.3% SR) for 131.3pts (+18.9% ROI)
  • those stepping up a furlong are 51/314 (16.2% SR) for 92.5pts (+29.5% ROI)
  • Chelmsford runners are 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 20.9pts (+87% ROI)

And if you take those beaten by more than a neck to 3 lengths and now run at the same trip or a furlong longer at odds of 7/4 to 9/1, you have 123 winners from 526 runners, with this 10-12 runners per month micro having a 23.4 % strike rate and an ROI of 39.4% via 207.3pts profit.

Of that 536-runner micro, those running off the same mark as that defeat LTO are 62/233 (26.6% SR) for 164.3pts (+70.5% ROI), which at around 5 bets per month is a very handy one to keep an eye out for.

And my recommended bet?

1pt win on Slovak at 100/30 BOG with either of 10Bet or Coral, as they both offer refunds on a defeat by a head or less. Several other firms are also offering 100/30 BOG without that insurance, so if you need/want to use an alternative bookie...

...click here for the betting on the 8.55 Chelmsford

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just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 16th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2014

Right of Appeal was, at 6/4, a fairly well-beaten (9 lengths) third of just four runners in a race decimated by non-runners, as five horses ducked this one.

Whether the presence of the missing runners would have affected the way the race unfolded isn't clear and probably isn't worth speculating upon either, so we'll move swiftly on towards Tuesday's selection which runs in the...

3.30 Yarmouth:

Where Ryan Moore rides James Tate's 5/2 BOG, 2 yr old handicap debutante, Lady Moscou.

James Tate has already begun to develop a knack for getting his handicappers to win at the first time of asking, despite him being relatively new to the training scene. This is particularly the case if there's a bit of money around for his runners, as those sent off between 2/1 and 9/2 have gone on to win 8 of 26 races.

This 30.8% strike rate has produced level stakes profits of 11.5pts at an ROI of 44.2%, with his 2 yr olds providing the bulk of the winners  and more than all of that profit. To date, his juveniles have won 5 of 11 handicap debuts (45.5% SR) and the 14.5pts profits from those runners is the equivalent of 132% of all stakes invested.

I'm also very happy to see the talented Ryan Moore in the saddle, because he is developing a bit of an understanding with the Tate runners and has, to date, won on seven occasions from just 17 rides: a strike rate of 41.2%.

In handicaps alone, Ryan is 6/8 (75%) on the Tate horses for level stakes profits of 5.7pts (+71.2% ROI) and that strike rate is mirrored here at Yarmouth, where the duo have a 3/4 record for 4.04pts (+101.1% ROI) profit.

Overall James Tate has had 5 winners from 12 Yarmouth handicaps this year with the 2.7pts profit equating to 22.6% of all stakes with a 5/5 record below 9/2. This 1005 record from the more fancied runners has yielded 9.7pts at an ROI of 194.2%.

Ryan Moore is actually 19/63 (30.2% SR) at Yarmouth over the last two seasons (11/32 this year) in all races at the track, whilst in handicap races only he is 12/42 (28.6% SR) in the last two years and 8/23 this season. And like James Tate, he is most profitable at the sharper end of the market, especially below 9/2. Below that price he is 12/27 (44.4% SR) here in the last couple of seasons for level stakes profits of 9.1pts (+33.5% ROI).

Lady Moscou comes here off the back of having won once from five starts with three narrow defeats as a runner-up (0.75L, 0.75L & 0.5L, all staying on). The only blot on her record so far is a 5th of 7 at Sandown two starts ago, but that was a Listed race to be fair and yet she was still only beaten by four lengths.

She has shaped like she needs further and her breeding would tend back up this assertion, so I'm expecting her to be more suited by this step up to a mile today. At 5/2 BOG, she's at the sharper end of where we like to play at SotD, but there could well be some value left in that price and I feel she'd be a lot shorter, but for the presence of a 6/4 favourite, for whom I think this race might just have come too soon.

So, the play today is a 1pt win bet on Lady Moscou at 5/2 BOG. I've got on with SkyBet, using last week's free bet token, but at least two other firms are matching this price, as you'll see when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Yarmouth

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Stat of the Day, 9th February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th February 2014

Alaivan attracted some support yesterday and was backed in from the 18/1 I mentioned in yesterday's piece down to an SP of just 10/1. And despite looking well out of it two from home, he rallied and stayed on to the finish, but couldn't quite get into the frame for us.

We'd taken the offer of 5 places from Bet365 and as Sod's Law dictates, our horse was 6th and the other Jonjo runner I mentioned was a winner!

It's too wet on the turf for me today, so it's back to the A/W and a selection more in line with normal (whatever that is!) SotD selection procedure in the...

4.40 Southwell:

Which is a 7 furlong Class 5 handicap, with nine runners now expected to go to post.

1. James Tate's horses on the A/W in Class 4 to 6 races since 2010 reads 19 wins from 107 races when priced between 7/2 and 16/1, a reasonable strike rate of 17.8%, yielding level stakes profits of 70.44pts, giving backers a 65.8% return on their investments. Of those runners, the record here at Southwell is 7/22 (31.8% SR) for 40.14pts (+182.5% ROI): 3/5 for 27.92pts with horses of American origin.

2. USA- bred horses tend to go well here at Southwell, especially those not too exposed at the track. Since 2010 again, those USA-bred runners with no more than two previous outings at the track have won 132 from 568 races: a strike rate of 23.2% giving rise to profits of 311.7pts (+54.9% ROI). From those 568 runners, the vast majority (511 of them) were aged from 3 to 7 and 116 of those 511 (22.7% SR) were winners, yielding excellent profits of 309.8pts (+60.6% ROI).

3. Males aged 3 to 5 with that same USA suffix are 51/203 (25.1% SR) for 145.5pts (+71.7% ROI) over trips of 7 furlongs or shorter in that same 2010-14 timeframe.

All of which lead me to a 1pt win bet on Ruwaiyan at 9/2 BOG with Coral, for other bookies prices...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.40 Southwell

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Here is today's racecard!