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Sat TV Trends: 24th April 2021

It’s Bet365 Gold Cup day at Sandown Park this Saturday while the ITV cameras are also heading to Leicester & Haydock for a couple more races – As always, we’ve got all the LIVE TV ITV trends ……

 

SANDOWN HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

1.55 - bet365 Novices’ Championship Final Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m110y ITV

Just two previous runnings
No race in 2020 (Covid)
Getaway Trump (Paul Nicholls) 9/2 fav won the race in 2019
Ballymoy (Nigel Twiston-Davies) 13/2 jfav won the race in 2018
2/2 – Winners carried 11-7 or more in weight
2/2 – Winning favourites
2/2 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
Trainer Harry Fry has a 29% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 26% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Chris Gordon is just 1 from 26 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Seamus Mullins is just 1 from 31 with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton is just 1 from 30 with his hurdlers at the track

2.30 - bet365 Oaksey Chase (Grade Two) (for The Menorah Challenge Trophy) Cl1 2m6f ITV

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Officially rated 161-169 (inc)
5/6 – Finished in the top 5 last time out
4/6 – Irish bred
4/6 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/6 – Winning favourites
Owner Diana Whateley won the race in 2014, 2015, 2016 & 2017
The average SP in the last 6 runnings is 5/2
Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls have won the race in the past too

 

3.05 - bet365 Celebration Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

17/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
17/17 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
15/17 – Had won at least 3 times over fences before
14/17 – Aged 9 or younger
14/17 – Came from the top three in the betting
14/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Had raced at Sandown (fences) before
12/17 – Rated 160 or higher
12/17 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
10/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
7/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Winning favourite
5/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (inc last 4)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won it 5 times in all)
4/17 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/17 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville (last 4)
3/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Ridden by Jamie Moore
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
Altior won the race in 2017, 2018 and 2019
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 15/8

 

3.40 - bet365 Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 3m5f110y ITV

17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times


HAYDOCK HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

2.50 – Casumo Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Cl2 7f ITV

7 previous runnings
6/7 – Aged 5 or younger
6/7 – Won over 7f in the past
6/7 – Didn’t win last time out
5/7 – Carried between 8-7 and 9-5 in weight
5/7 – Came from stalls 1-5 (inc)
5/7 – Irish bred
5/7 – Winners from stalls 1-5 (inc)
3/7 – Rated between 96-100 (inc)
3/7 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
2/7 – Winning favourites
2/7 – Trained by William Haggas
2/7 – Trained by John Quinn
Trainer William Haggas has won race in 2016 and 2017
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 36% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Ed Walker has a 27% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Charles Hills has a 24% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey William Buick has a 26% record riding 4+ year-olds at the track

LEICESTER HORSE RACING TRENDS (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.10 – Elusive Bloodstock EBF Stallions King Richard III Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 7f ITV

11/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
10/11 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
9/11 – Winners from stalls 2-5 (inc)
9/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
9/11 – Won at least twice in the past
9/11 – Had won over 7f in the past
8/11 – Irish bred winners
8/11 – Last ran 2+ months ago
8/11 – Officially rated 107 or higher
8/11 – Didn’t win last time out
7/11 – Unplaced last time out
4/11 – Winning favourites
2/11 – Trained by Hugo Palmer
2/11 – Ridden by Andrea Atzeni
2/11 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
0/11 – Winners from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 5/2

 

 

 

 

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Bet365 Gold Cup Trends

The Bet365 Gold Cup will be known to older racing fans as The Whitbread, this 3m5 1/2f race is the last big jumping event of the NH season, and being staged on a mixed (jumps/flat) card then for many this signals the real handover between the two codes.

Run at Sandown Park racecourse the staying Handicap Grade Three chase has been won by some leading names over the years, including Desert Orchid, who landed the prize back in 1988. It’s also been a poor race for the favourite in recent times with not a single market leader win since Beau took the race in 2000, while it might pay to note that 23 of the last 28 (82%) winners carried less than 11st to victory.

Here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the stats ahead of the 2021 renewal, this year run on Saturday April 24th.

 

Past Bet365 Gold Cup Winners

2020 – No Race
2019 – TALKISCHEAP (7/1)
2018 - STEP BACK (7/1)
2017 – HELLAN HARRI (40/1)
2016 – THE YOUNG MASTER (8/1)
2015 – JUST A PAR (14/1)
2014 – HADRIANS APPROACH (10/1)
2013 – QUENTIN COLLONGES (14/1)
2012 – TIDAL BAY (9/1)
2011 – POKER DE SIVOLA (11/1)
2010 – CHURCH ISLAND (20/1)
2009 – HENNESSY (13/2)
2008 – MONKERHOSTIN (25/1)
2007 – HOT WELD (6/1)
2006 – LACDOUDAL (10/1)
2005 – JACK HIGH (16/1)
2004 – PUNTAL (25/1)
2003 – AD HOC (7/1)

 

Bet365 Gold Cup Betting Trends and Stats

17/17 – Had raced in the last 63 days
16/17 – Carried 11-5 or less in weight
14/17 – Carried 11-0 or less
14/17 – Had won over 3m or further before
13/17 – Aged 9 or younger
12/17  - Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced in the last 25 days
10/17 – Officially rated 140 or higher
10/17 – Came from the top 7 in the betting market
9/17 – Finished 4th or worse last time out
5/17 – Won with 10st in weight
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Aintree Grand National last time out
2/17 – Ran in the Scottish Grand National last time out
2/17 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
0/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 14/1

Other Key Bet365 Gold Cup Facts

The last winning favourite was Beau in 2000
Just one 6 year-old winner since 1959
24 of the last 29 (83%) winners carried less than 11st
8 year-olds have won 6 of the last 17 runnings (35%)
13 of the last 17 (76%) winners were aged 7, 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won the race 4 times

 

Let’s take a look at some of the key stats…………………..

Recent Run – With ALL of the last seventeen winners having raced in the last 63 days then this is certainly a good stating point when we know the final runners. This trend can also be taken a bit further with 10 of the last 17 winners having raced in the last 25 days. Only three of the last 17 winners won their last race, so don’t be too hung up looking for a recent winner, while 9 of the last 17 also finished unplaced in their most recent outing.

Weight – Another big trend here to help whittle down the runners as 16 of the last 17 winners carried 11st 5lbs or less in weight, with 14 of the last 17 having 11st or less on their backs. Since 2007, we’ve only had two winners that won with 11st or more. If we go back a bit further in time then 24 of the last 29 winners (83%) carried less than 11st, while 5 of the last 17 winners took the prize with just 10st – so, even though it doesn’t always apply to these staying races, it’s clear here that those towards the bottom of the handicap have fared better.

Age – The most recent winner in 2019 – Talkischeap – was a 7 year-old when he won the race – 50% of the last six winners have now been aged 7. Plus, by winning this Alan King runner further backed up the trend that’s seen 13 of the last 17 winners aged 9 or younger. Having said that, we have seen three 11 year-olds – Monkerhostin (2008), Church Island (2010) and Tidal Bay (2012) – take the prize. However, 76% of the last 17 winners fitted into the age bracket between 7-9 year-olds and 6 of the last 17 winners were 8 year-olds. At the other end of the age spectrum, we’ve had just one 6 year-old winner (Bounce Back, 2002) since 1959.

Favourites and Betting – Another huge trend here in recent times has seen this race being a graveyard contest for the favourites – the last winning market leader was in 2000 (Beau). Backed up again in 2019 with the jolly – West Approach – only managing fifth. However, we generally don’t have to look too far away from the favourite to find the winner. The 2019 hero was sent off the 7/1 joint second favourite, while 12 of the last 17 winners returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting and 10 of those came from the top seven in the market.

Trip – It’s no shock that 14 of the last 17 winners of this staying handicap have won previously over at least 3m, but it’s still something to mention in case there are any new kids on the block trying 3m+ for the first time.

Trainers – As already mentioned the Alan King team took this race when it was last run in 2019, but other yards to have on your radar in this race have to be Paul Nicholls, who has four successes to his name – the most recent being in 2015. Nicky Henderson, Peter Bowen, Neil Mulholland and Philip Hobbs are other stables that have got their name on the winners’ hall of fame in recent years too.

 

 

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