Tag Archive for: 2025 newmarket july festival trends

2025 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Three, Saturday 12th July

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As we head into day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday there is bundles more to look forward to with five more LIVE ITV races too. The Group One July Cup (4:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Three, Saturday 12th July 2025

2:12 – Trustatrader Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

16/16 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
15/16 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
13/16 - Had won over at least 7f before
11/16 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/16 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
9/16 – Placed favourites
6/16 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/16 – Winning favourites
Asian Daze (9/1) won the race in 2024

2:50 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over 7f previously
21/23 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/23 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/23 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
12/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/23 – Placed in their last race
10/23 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/23 – Horses from a double-figure stall that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd
4/23 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 14)
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 16)
3/23 - Trained by the Hannon yard (2 of the last 5)
10 of the last 14 winners came from double-figure draws
15 of the last 17 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 17 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Aalto (15/2) won the race in 2024
Biggles (5/1) won the race in 2023

3:25 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) (3yo) Cl2 1m ITV

21/23 – Had won over 7f or further previously
18/23 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
17/23 – Had 2 or more runs that season
13/23 – Unplaced in their last race
10/23 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
10/23 – Favourites unplaced
5/23 – Won their last race
5/23 – Winning Favourites
4/23 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 7)
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 12 runnings

4:00 - bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over at least 6f previously
21/23 – Placed in their last race
20/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
18/23 – Won their latest race
16/23 – Won by either a March or April foal
14/23 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
13/23 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/23 – Favourites unplaced
8/23 – Winning Favourites
5/25 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 15)
4/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/23 – Winners from stall 3
4/23 - Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 7)
3/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 8)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 12 runnings)
2/23 – Trained by Mick Channon
The last 3 winners all drawn stall 2
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 5 of the last 9 runnings
Ancient Truth (4/6 fav) won this race in 2024

4:35 – Al Basti July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2024 Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

22/23 – Aged 5 or younger
21/23 – Had won over 6f before
19/23 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
18/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/23 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
18/23 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
14/23 – Placed last time out
11/23 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Won their previous race
6/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 7 winners)
3/23 – Filly winners
2/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 7)
2/23 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/23 – French-trained winners
15 of the last 16 winners aged 3 or 4
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 15/2
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Charlie Appleby has never won the race
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton

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2025 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Two, Friday 11th July

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As we head into day two of the 2025 Newmarket July Festival this Friday there is bundles more to look forward to with four more LIVE ITV races too. The Group One Falmouth Stakes (3:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two, Friday 12th July 2025

1.50 - bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

16/18 – Had won between 1-2 times before
15/18 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
14/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
13/18 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
13/18 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
11/18 – Unplaced favourites
10/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/18 – Trained by the Johnston yard (including 7 of last 12 runnings)
8/18 – Raced at Ascot last time out
4/18 – Won last time out
2/18 – Trained by Andrew Balding
2/18 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 10)
2/18 – Winning favourites
The last 8 winners drawn 6 or lower
50% of the last 6 winners drawn in stall 6

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

21/21 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
21/21 – Had raced at least twice before
19/21 – Had won between 1-2 times before
19/21 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
18/21 – Placed favourites
17/21 – Foaled in Feb or March
17/21 – Won by a UK-based yard
15/21 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
15/21 – Ran at Ascot last time out
14/21 – Had won over 6f before
12/21 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/21 – Won last time out
9/21 – Winning favourites
4/21 – Drawn in stall 1 (3 of the last 6)
3/21 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 9)
2/21 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3 of the last 10 winners drawn in stall 7
8 of the last 10 winners returned 6/1 or shorter

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just 7 previous running
The Saeed Bin Suroor yard won this race in 2021 and 2023
The Johnston yard won this race in 2019, 2020 and 2022
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
The Andrew Balding yard won this race in 2024
Godolphin have won 3 of the 7 past runnings
7/7 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
6/7 – Aged 4 or 6
5/7 – Carried 9-0 or more
4/7 – Aged 4 years-old
3/7 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3/7 – Winning favourites (3 of the last 4)
2/7 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 4)
1/7 – Just 1 winning 5 year-old

3.35 - Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

22/23 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
21/23 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
19/23 – Had 2+ runs that season
18/23– Won over at least 1m previously
18/23 – Won from stall 5 or lower
17/23 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
17/23 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
14/23 – Favourites placed
9/23 – Previous Group One winners
8/23 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/23 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
7/23 – Won their last race
4/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 11)
3/23 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 13 runnings)
2/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 9 runnings)
2/23 - Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 11 runnings)
2/23 – French-trained winners
Trainer Charlie Appleby has never won the race
Godolphin have never won the race
4 of the last 9 winners Irish-trained
Since 1979 all bar 2 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old
The last horse to win aged 5 or older was Soviet Song (2005)
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 4 (6)
8 of the last 9 winners from stalls 4 or lower
Porta Fortuna (10/11) won this race in 2024
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 winners (2016 Alice Springs & 2017 Roly Poly)

 

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2025 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day One Thursday 10th July

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The three-day 2025 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (10th July) and runs till Saturday (12th July) - with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle. As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and pinpoint the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One, Thursday 10th July 2025

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

22/23 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
19/23 – Failed to win last time out
17/23 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
15/23 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
15/23 – Favourites placed in the top three
13/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
13/23 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
11/23 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
7/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 14 runnings) (5 in total, winning-most trainer)
4/23 – Ridden by William Buick (last 2)
4/23 – Won by Godolphin (3 of the last 4 Charlie Appleby)
2/23– Winners that came from stall 1
The last 10 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race twice (1999, Moon Dragon & 2016 Housesofparliament)
Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 8 winners

2.25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

22/23 – Had won over 5f or 6f previously
20/23 – Placed in their last run
20/23 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
15/23 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
13/23 – Won their last race
13/23 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
12/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
8/23 – Trained by Hannon yard (10 wins in total) (2 of the last 4)
8/23 – Winning favourites (4 of the last)
3/23 – Winners that came from stall 1 (last 2)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times (2005, Ivan Denisovich, 2019 Royal Lytham & 2024 Whistlejacket)

3.00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV

17/19 – Had won no more than 3 times before
17/19 – Had won over 6f before
16/19 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
16/19 – Carried 8-12 or less
15/19 – Didn’t win last time out
15/19 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/19 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
14/19 – Came from a double-figure stall
13/19 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
12/19 – Unplaced favourites
8/19 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 9)
4/19 – Ridden by David Probert
1/19 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 10 winners drawn 8+
The last 8 winners carried between 8-3 and 8-12

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Stakes (Sponsored by the Kingdom Of Bahrain) (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

21/23 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 13 of last 17)
21/23 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
19/23 – Had 2 or more runs that season
18/23 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
17/23 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/23 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
15/23 – Unplaced in their previous race
12/23 – Favourites that were placed
10/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/23 – Won by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 6)
4/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012)
2/23 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (2 of the last 8)
2/23 – Trained by Michael Bell (2 of the last 10)
2/23 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2 of the last 11)
2/23 – Trained by John Gosden
The last 10 winners all aged 4 or 5
Just one 3 year-old winner since 2007
Godolphin have won 4 of the last 11 runnings

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