Tag Archive for: 2025 newmarket july festival trends

2026 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Three, Saturday 11th July

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As we head into day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday there is bundles more to look forward to with SIX more LIVE ITV races too.

The Group One July Cup (4:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Three, Saturday 11th July 2025

1:40 – Rossdales British EBF Maiden Stakes Cl3 (2yo) 7f

9/10 – Returned 17/2 or shorter
8/10 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4), Andrew Balding (2) or John Gosden (2)
8/10 – Drawn between 3-9
7/10 – Foaled in Feb or March
4/10 – Winning favourites
This race has been won by Distant Storm, Field Of Gold and Noble Truth since 2021
Constitution River 2nd in 2025

2:15 – Newmarket Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

17/17 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/17 – Didn’t win last time out
16/17 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
14/17 - Had won over at least 7f before
12/17 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
11/17 – Rated between 82-93 (inc)
10/17 – Placed favourites
6/17 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/17 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/17 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/17 – Winning favourites
Royal Velvet (4/1) won the race in 2025

2:52 - Newmarket Handicap (3yo) Cl2 1m ITV

22/24 – Had won over 7f or further previously
19/24 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
18/24 – Had 2 or more runs that season
14/24 – Unplaced in their last race
10/24 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
10/24 – Favourites unplaced
5/24 – Won their last race
5/24 – Winning Favourites
4/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 8)
Charlie Appleby and William Buick have won 2 of the last 3
Godolphin has won 5 of the last 8
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 13 runnings

3:25 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

23/24 – Won over 7f previously
22/24 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/24 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
15/24 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/24 – Winners from stall 13 or higher
13/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/24 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
12/24 – Placed in their last race
10/24 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/24 – Horses from a double-figure stall that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd
5/24 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/24 – Won by the Hannon yard (2 or last 6)
3/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 15)
3/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 17)
11 of the last 15 winners came from double-figure draws
16 of the last 18 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 18 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Aalto (15/2) won the race in 2024 & 2nd in 2025

4:00 - bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

23/24 – Won over at least 6f previously
22/24 – Placed in their last race
21/24 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
19/24 – Won their latest race
16/24 – Won by either a March or April foal
14/24 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
14/24 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/24 – Favourites unplaced
8/24 – Winning Favourites
5/24 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 16)
5/24 - Ridden by William Buick (5 of the last 8)
4/24 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/24 – Winners from stall 3
3/24 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 9)
2/24 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 13 runnings)
2/24 – Trained by Mick Channon
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 7 of the last 11 runnings
Last 4 winners all drawn stall 2
William Buick / Charlie Appleby have won 5 of the last 8

4:35 – Al Basti July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....
2025 No Half Measures (66/1)
2024 Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

23/24 – Aged 5 or younger
22/24 – Had won over 6f before
19/24 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
19/24 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
19/24 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
18/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/24 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
15/24 – Placed last time out
11/24 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/24 – Unplaced favourites
9/24 – Won their previous race
6/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 8 winners)
4/24 – Filly winners
2/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 8)
2/24 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/24 – French-trained winners
16 of the last 17 winners aged 3 or 4
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton
Trainer Charlie Appleby has never won the race

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2026 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Two, Friday 10th July

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As we head into day two of the 2026 Newmarket July Festival this Friday there is bundles more to look forward to with four more LIVE ITV races too.

The Group One Falmouth Stakes (3:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Two, Friday 10th July 2026

1.50 – Oddschecker Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 1m2f ITV

17/19 – Had won between 1-2 times before
16/19 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
15/19 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed in the top 6 last time out
14/19 – Have never run at Newmarket (July) before
14/19 – Carried 8-12 or more in weight
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
11/19 – Irish bred
8/19 – Had won over 1m2f or further before
8/19 – Trained by the Johnston yard (including 7 of last 13 runnings)
8/19 – Raced at Ascot last time out
5/19 – Won last time out
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick (3 of the last 11)
3/19 – Winning favourites
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding
8 of the last 9 winners drawn 6 or lower
3 of the last 7 winners drawn in stall 6

2.25 - Duchess of Cambridge Stakes (Sponsored by Bet365) (Group 2) Cl1 6f ITV

22/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
22/22 – Had raced at least twice before
20/22 – Had won between 1-2 times before
20/22 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
19/22 – Placed favourites
18/22 – Foaled in Feb or March
18/22 – Won by a UK-based yard
16/22 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
16/22 – Ran at Ascot last time out
15/22 – Had won over 6f before
13/22 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/22 – Won last time out
10/22 – Winning favourites
4/22 – Drawn in stall 1 (3 of the last 7)
3/22 – Trained by the Hannon team
3/22 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/22 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (inc 2 of last 10)
2/22 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3 of the last 11 winners drawn in stall 7
9 of the last 11 winners returned 6/1 or shorter

3.00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV

Just 8 previous running
The Saeed Bin Suroor yard won this race in 2021 and 2023
The Johnston yard won this race in 2019, 2020 and 2022
The Charlie Appleby yard won this race in 2018
The Andrew Balding yard won this race in 2024
Godolphin have won 3 of the 8 past runnings
8/8 – Aged between 4-6 years-old
7/8 – Aged 4 or 6
6/8 – Carried 9-0 or more
4/8 – Aged 4 years-old
3/8 – Trained by the Johnston yard
3/8 – Winning favourites (3 of the last 5)
2/8 – Ridden by Oisin Murphy (2 of the last 5)
1/8 – Just 1 winning 5 year-old
Oneforthegutter (12/1) won this race in 2025

3.35 - Tattersalls Falmouth Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 1m ITV

23/24 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
22/24 – Won a Listed or better class race previously
20/24 – Had 2+ runs that season
19/24 – Won over at least 1m previously
19/24 – Won from stall 5 or lower
18/24 – Ran at Ascot in their last race
18/24 – Won at 13/2 or shorter in the betting
15/24 – Favourites placed
10/24 – Previous Group One winners
8/24 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
7/24 – Had run on the Newmarket July course previously
7/24 – Won their last race
4/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (4 of the last 12)
3/24 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 14 runnings)
2/24 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 10 runnings)
2/24 - Owned by the Cheveley Park Stud (2 of the last 12 runnings)
2/24 – French-trained winners
4 of the last 9 winners Irish-trained
Since 1979 all bar 2 winners were aged 3 or 4 years-old
The last horse to win aged 5 or older was Soviet Song (2005)
10 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 4 (7)
Charlie Appleby has just 1 win in the race (Cinderella’s Dream, 2025)
Godolphin have just 1 win in the race (Cinderella’s Dream, 2025)
9 of the last 10 winners from stalls 4 or lower
Aidan O’Brien has trained 2 winners (2016 Alice Springs & 2017 Roly Poly)

 

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2026 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day One Thursday 9th July

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The three-day 2026 Newmarket July Meeting gets started on Thursday (9th July) and runs till Saturday (11th July) - with LIVE ITV races each day we’ve got everything covered from a trends and stats angle.

As always, we are on hand to take you through each of the LIVE races from a trends angle – use these to narrow down the runners and pinpoint the best profiles of past winners of the race.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day One, Thursday 9th July 2026

1.50 - Bahrain Trophy (Group 3) Cl1 1m5f ITV

23/24 – Had 2 or more previous runs that season
20/24 – Failed to win last time out
17/24 – Never run on the Newmarket July Course before
16/24 – Had won over 1m2f (or further) before
16/24 – Favourites placed in the top three
14/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
14/24 – Won at 3/1 or shorter
12/24 – Finished fifth or worse in their previous race
8/24 – Winning favourites
4/24 – Trained by John Gosden (inc 4 of last 15 runnings) (5 in total, winning-most trainer)
4/24 – Ridden by William Buick (2 of the last 3)
4/24 – Won by Godolphin (3 of the last 5 Charlie Appleby)
2/24 – Winners that came from stall 1
The last 11 winners returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race three times (1999, Moon Dragon, 2016 Housesofparliament & 2025 Scandinavia)
Jamie Spencer has ridden 2 of the last 9 winners

2.25 – Kingdom Of Bahrain July Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 6f ITV

23/24 – Had won over 5f or 6f previously
21/24 – Placed in their last run
20/24 – Had 2 or more previous career starts
16/24 – Won by either a Feb or March foal
14/24 – Won their last race
13/24 – Won at 9/2 or shorter
12/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their last race
12/24 – Unplaced favourites
8/24 – Trained by Hannon yard (10 wins in total) (2 of the last 5)
8/24 – Winning favourites (4 of the last 10)
3/24 – Winners that came from stall 1 (2 of the last 3)
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has won the race 3 times (2005, Ivan Denisovich, 2019 Royal Lytham & 2024 Whistlejacket)
Last 4 winners stalls 1-4
Charlie Appleby has never won the July Stakes

3.00 – Bet Boost At bet365 Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-105) 6f ITV

18/20 – Had won no more than 3 times before
17/20 – Had won over 6f before
16/20 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
17/20 – Carried 8-12 or less
16/20 – Didn’t win last time out
15/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
14/20 – Returned 9/1 or bigger in the betting
14/20 – Came from a double-figure stall
14/20 – Had 3 or 4 previous runs that season
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
8/20 – Finished unplaced last time out
4/20 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of the last 10)
4/20 – Ridden by David Probert
1/20 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 11 winners drawn 8+
The last 9 winners carried between 8-3 and 8-12

3.35 - Princess Of Wales´s Stakes (Sponsored by the Kingdom Of Bahrain) (Group 2) Cl1 1m4f ITV

22/24 – Aged 4 or older (4 year-olds have won 13 of last 17)
21/24 – Previously won over at least 1m4f
20/24 – Had 2 or more runs that season
19/24 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
18/24 – Won at 8/1 or shorter in the betting
16/24 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race before
16/24 – Unplaced in their previous race
12/24 – Favourites that were placed
10/24 – Ran at Royal Ascot in their previous race
5/24 – Won by the Johnston yard (2 of the last 7)
4/24 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2007, 2009, 2011 and 2012)
3/24 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (3 of the last 9)
2/24 – Trained by Michael Bell (2 of the last 11)
2/24 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor (2 of the last 12)
2/24 – Trained by John Gosden
The last 11 winners all aged 4 or 5
Just one 3 year-old winner since 2007
Godolphin have won 5 of the last 12 runnings

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