Tag Archive for: aintree horse racing trends

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 7th Dec 2024

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Another massive Saturday of NH jumping action with the ITV cameras heading to Sandown and Aintree, with the Tingle Creek Chase and Becher Chase the feature contests.

As always, here at GeeGeez, we’ve got all the big-race trends and stats for all the LIVE races on Saturday 7th December 2024.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.15 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 7 1/2f ITV4

10/10 - Aged between 5-8
8/10 - Having first run at the track
8/10 - Had between 0-4 wins over hurdles
7/10 - Carried 11st or less
7/10 - Had won over at least 2m5f before
7/10 - Irish bred
7/10 - Didn't win last time out
7/10 - Returned 6/1 or shorter
6/10 - Ridden by a claiming jockey
6/10 - Placed favourites
4/10 - Winning favourites
Philip Hobbs has trained 2 of the last 3 winners
Operation Manna won the race in 2023
The average winning SP is 13/2

1.50 – Betfair Henry VIII Novices´ Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

20/20 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
20/20 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
19/20 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences before
19/20 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 2m
18/20 – Aged 6 or younger
17/20 – French (13) or Irish (4) bred
17/20 – Won last time out
13/20 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
13/20 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Arkle Chase (3 winners)
13/20 – Placed favourites
12/20 – Raced at either Cheltenham (6) or Warwick (6) last time out
12/20 – Winning distance – 2 ¾ lengths or more
8/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/20 – Winners went onto finish 1st or 2nd in that season’s Arkle Chase
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (7 in total)
3/20 – Trained by Alan King
Le Patron won the race in 2023
Nicky Henderson has won the race 5 times

2.25 – Betfair Plays Different Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m ITV4

19/20 – Won over at least 2m (hurdles) before
18/20 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
16/20 – Aged 4,5 or 6 years-old
16/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
15/20 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
15/20 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
14/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or more
14/20 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
12/20 – Rated between 116-129
11/20 – Irish bred
9/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
4/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
13 of the last 14 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
Spirit d’Aunou (4/1) won this in 2023

3.00 – Betfair Tingle Creek Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV4

21/22 – Aged 9 or younger
20/22 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
19/22 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
19/22 – Had won a Grade One chase before
18/22 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
17/22 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
16/22 – Placed favourites
16/22 – French bred
16/22 – Officially rated 165 or higher
15/22 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
14/22 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or more
14/22 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
14/22 – Had won a chase race at Sandown before
14/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
13/22 – Won last time out
11/22 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (12 wins in total)
6/22 - Won by a past winner
6/22 – Won the Queen Mother Champion Chase (Altior, Dodging Bullets, Sire de Grugy, Sprinter Sacre, Master Minded & Moscow Flyer) at the Cheltenham Festival later that season
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 11/4

Note: The 2010 renewal was staged at Cheltenham

3.35 – Betfair Exchange London National Handicap Chase Cl2 3m5f110y ITV4

17/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
17/18 – Aged 7 or older
17/18 – Had won (fences) over at least 3m before
16/18 – Won between 2-6 times over fences before
15/18 – Rated 126 or higher
15/18 – Aged 8 or older
14/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
12/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
12/18 – Irish bred
12/18 – Unplaced favourites
11/18 – Carried 11-0 or more
9/18 – Had raced over fences at Sandown before (2 won)
5/18 – Won last time out
4/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
1/18 – Winning favourites
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 7
Trainer Neil Mulholland has won 2 of the last 8
5 of the last 7 winners ridden by claiming jockeys
Certainly Red was 3rd in 2023

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.32 – BoyleSports Home Of The Early Payout Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 0-145) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Carried 10-10 or more in weight
9/10 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
9/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/10 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
8/10 – Aged between 6-9 years-old
7/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
7/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences
6/10 – Ran at Ayr (2), Kempton (2) or Bangor (2) last time out
6/10 – Unplaced favourites
6/10 – Had run at Aintree before
6/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
5/10 – Rated between 133 and 135 (inc)
4/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
Richmond Lake won the race in 2023

2.07 – BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m2f ITV4

20/22 - Aged 8+
18/22 – Had won between 2-5 times over fences before
18/22 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
18/22 – Had no more than 1 start that season
17/22 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
17/22 – Carried 10-12 or less
16/22 – Aged 9 or older
14/22 – Had run over these Grand National-style fences before
13/22 – Officially rated between 123-138
12/22 – Irish-bred winners
11/22 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
12/22 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/22 – Placed favourites
8/22 – Ran in the previous season’s Grand National
5/22– Winning favourites
4/22 – Won last time out
3/22– Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/22 – Irish-trained winners
3/22– Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/22 - Trained by David Pipe (2 of the last 8)
1/22 – Went onto win the Grand National later in their career
0/22 – Went onto win the Grand National that same season
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 12/1
Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has won the race 6 times since 1993
Chambard (18/1) won the race in 2023
Ashdown Lad (5/1) won the race in 2022

2.42 – Boylesports Acca Boost Juvenile Hurdle (Listed Race) (GBB Race) Cl1 (3yo) 2m1f RTV

10/10 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Won over 2m+ before
9/10 – Favourites finished in top 3
8/10 – Won last time out
8/10 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
6/10 – French bred
5/10 – Winning favourite
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/10 – Ridden by Harry Cobden
2/10 – Nicky Henderson
2/10 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
The average winning SP in the last 10 running is 15/8
Note: This race has been staged at Doncaster in the past

3.17 - BoyleSports Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 4f ITV4

11/13 - Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 - Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 - Aged 7 or younger
10/13 - Aged between 5-6 years-old
9/13 - Carried 10-10 or more in weight
9/13 - Won between 1-2 times before
9/13 - Placed in the top 4 last time out
9/13 - Won over at least 2m4f before
7/13 - Had run at Aintree before
4/13 - Ran at Aintree (2) or Kempton (2) last time out
5/13 - Winning favourites
4/13 - Won last time out
2/13 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 - Trained by Dan Skelton
2/13 - Trained by Olly Murphy (2 of the last 5)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

 

Sat TV Trends: 7th November 2020

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This Saturday the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Ales Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in one of the Aintree contests – as always here at GeeGeez we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE races….. 

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/ATR)

1.30 – Betfair Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV4

14/16 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
14/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had won over 6f before
13/16 – Won from stall 12 or lower
13/16 – Rated 99 or higher
13/16 – Aged 4 or older
11/16 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
9/16 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
8/16 – Had won at Doncaster before
8/16 – Winning distance – ½ length or less
5/16 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Winning mare/filly
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 6/1
Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

 

2.05 – Betfair Exchange British EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV4

13/15 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/15 – Had won at least twice before
12/15 – Had 3 or more runs that season
11/15 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
9/15 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
8/15 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
8/15 – Had won over 1m2f before
8/15 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
6/15 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
2/15 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/15 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/15 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/15 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 12/1

Note: The 2006 renewal was run at Windsor

 

3.15 – Betfair November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV4

13/16 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
13/16 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
13/16 – Favourites that were unplaced
12/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
12/16 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
12/16 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
11/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/16 – Won carrying 8-13 or less in weight
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/16 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/16 – Ridden by jockey Martin Dwyer
1/16 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 10/1
Just 1 winning favourite since 1995

 

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1.50 – Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

13/13 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
9/13 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
8/13 – Rated between 119-129
9/13 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
9/13 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
8/13 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
8/13 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
6/13 – Had run at the track before
7/13 – Irish bred
7/13 – Aged 6 years-old
5/13 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/13 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 7)
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
Misty Bloom (9/2) won the race in 2019 (Emma Lavelle)

2.25 - ‘Rising Stars’ Novices Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV4

13/13 – Had won no more than twice over fences
12/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
11/13 – Favourites placed
11/13 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Irish (6) or French (4) bred
9/13 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
9/13 – Aged 6 or younger
8/13 – Won last time out
8/13 – Winning favourites
7/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/13 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
10 of the last 11 winners were aged between 5-7
Reserve Tank (4/5 fav) won the race in 2019 (Colin Tizzard)

3.00 - Unibet Elite Hurdle (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

16/16 – Aged 7 or younger
14/16 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
13/16 – Came from the top three in the betting
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Rated 150 or lower
9/16 – Having first run of the season
5/16 – Ran at Aintree last time out
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/16 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
4/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by John Quinn
Fusil Raffles (4/7 fav) won the race in 2019 (Nicky Henderson)
Sceau Royal won this race in 2016

 

 

3.35 - Badger Beers Silver Trophy (A Handicap Chase) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV4

17/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
15/17 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
14/17 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
14/17  – Placed in the top four in their last race
14/17 – Won at least two chase races previously
13/17 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
13/17 –  Raced at the course previously (won over fences)
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Irish-bred horse
10/17 – Raced already that season
10/17 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (3) last time out
10/17 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
7/17 – Carried 10-5 or less in weight
7/17 – Priced at double-figures
7/17 – Won their latest race
7/17 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
4/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
5/17 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 5 of the last 10 years)
Present Man won the race in 2017 and 2018
Give Me A Copper (9/2 co fav) won the race in 2019 (Paul Nicholls)

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.40 – williamhill Best Odds Guaranteed Hurdle (Class 2) (4yo) 2m4f

4/5 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Winning favourites
3/5 – Aged 7 or 8 years-old
2/5 – Owned by Simon Munir and Isaac Souede
2/5 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/5 – Ridden by Nico de Boinville