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Sat TV Trends: 17th Oct 2020

It’s Qipco Champions Day at Ascot this SaturdayAs normal Andy Newton’s covered all the LIVE ITV races from a trends & stats angle.

Use these key trends to help narrow down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

 

1.20 - Qipco British Champions Long Distance Cup (Group 2) Cl1 2m ITV

15/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/18 – Won at Listed or better class previously
15/18 – Winning distance – 1 1/2 lengths or less
13/18 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
13/18 – Favourites placed
13/18 – Won at least 5 times previously
12/18 – Aged 5 or older
12/18 – Won over at least 2 miles on the flat previously
11/18 – Raced at least 5 times that season
8/18 – Raced at Longchamp (3), Ascot (2) or Doncaster (3) last time out
8/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
8/18 – Won their latest race
6/18 – Irish-trained winners (6 of the last 10)
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of the last 5)
2/18 – Trained by Dermot Weld
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 5)
Stradivarius won the race in 2018 and was second in 2019
Since 2011: 6 of the last 9 winners came from stalls 2-4 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 7 have been placed in 4 of the last 8
The average winning odds in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

1.55 - Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

17/18 – Won over 6f previously
17/18 – Won at least 3 times previously
15/18 – Returned 12/1 or shorter
16/18 –  Raced within the last 6 weeks
16/18 – Raced at least 4 times that season
15/18 – Won at Listed or better class previously
13/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/18 – Raced at Ascot previously (3 won)
13/18 – Finished in the top 4 in their latest race
13/18 – Won a Group race previously
11/18 – Favourites placed
11/18 – Raced at Haydock (6), Goodwood (2) or Newbury (3) last time out
4/18 – Won their latest race
4/18 – Favourites that won
2/18 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan (2 of the last 5)
The Tin Man (13/2) won the race in 2016
Since 2011: 4 of the last 9 winners have come from stalls 12 (2) or 14 (2)
Since 2011: 5 of the last 9 winners came from double-figure stalls
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 12 placed 5 of the last 9 runnings
Since 2011: Horses from stalls 14 placed 4 of the last 9 runnings

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The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

 

2.30 - Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m4f ITV

12/12 – Raced 3 or more times that season
11/12 – Won at Listed or better class previously
10/12 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
10/12 – Won at least 3 times previously
10/12 – Raced within the last 9 weeks
9/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd in their last race
9/12 – Won over 1m4f previously
9/12 – Rated 110 or higher
8/12 – Returned between 4/1 and 6/1
8/12 – Favourites placed
8/12 – Aged 3 years-old
6/12 – Won their last race
4/12 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/12 – Favourites that won
2/12 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/12 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of last 3 runnings)
2/12 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of the last 4 runnings)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1
Magical (5/1) won the race in 2018
3 of the last 10 winners came from stall 2

Note: The 2009 & 2010 renewals were run at Newmarket

 

3.05 - Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group 1) Cl1 1m ITV

18/18 – Raced at least 3 times that season
16/18 – Aged 3 or 5 years-old
16/18 – Finished in the top three in their last race
16/18 – Raced at Goodwood, Longchamp or Leopardstown last time out
16/18 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
15/18 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
14/18 – Favourites placed
14/18 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/18 – Raced at Ascot previously (6 won)
10/18 – Won their latest race
9/18 – Won at least 7 times previously
8/18 – Favourites that won
7/18 – Raced at Goodwood last time out
4/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/18 – Trained by John Gosden
3/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/18 – Trained by Freddie Head
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 4/1
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 2-8 (inc)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 2 and 7 have won 4 of the last 9 runnings

Note: The 2005 renewal was run at Newmarket

 

3.40 - Qipco Champion Stakes (British Champions Middle Distance) (Group 1) Cl1 1m2f ITV

18/18 – Won at least 4 times previously
17/18 – Won between 4 and 8 times previously
17/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Finished in the top 3 in their latest race
16/18 – Won over 1m2f previously
16/18 – Won a Group 1 or 2 race previously
14/18 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
13/18 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
13/18 – Raced 5 or more times that season
10/18 – Won their last race
8/18 – Raced at either Longchamp (5) or Goodwood (3) last time out
6/18 – Favourites unplaced
6/18 – Returned a double-figure price
6/18 – Favourites
4/18 – Won by a French-based trainer
3/18 – Ridden by Tom Queally
2/18 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (2 of last 3)
2/18 – Trained by John Gosden (2 of last 3)
Magical (Evs fav) won the race in 2019
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has just 1 win in the race (Magical, 2019)
Since 2011: Horses from stall 5 have won 2 of the last 7 runnings

 

4.15 - Balmoral Handicap (Sponsored By Qipco) Cl2 1m ITV

Just 6 previous runnings
6/6 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
5/6 - Winners drawn 10 or lower
5/6 – Carried between 9-1 and 9-6 in weight
5/6 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 -  Winners ran at Newmarket last time out
4/6 - Previous winners were aged 5 years-old
2/6 – Trained by David O’Meara
1/6 - Winning favourite
Escobar (16/1) won the race in 2019
The average winning SP in the last 6 runnings is 11/1
Trainers Roger Varian, David O’Meara (2), Roger Charlton, Saeed Bin Suroor and Marcus Tregoning have won the race in the past
Horses from stalls 12 or 13 have been placed in 3 of the last 6 runnings

 

 

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Sun TV Trends: 26th July 2020

More top-class LIVE ITV Racing this Sunday (26th July 2020) with the cameras heading to York and Ascot.

At York there are three races that include the Sky Bet Dash (2.45) – a race that 14 of the last 16 winners carried 8-12 or more in weight.

Then at Ascot, we’ve four more races that are headlined by the Group Three Princess Margaret Stakes (3.40) – a contest that’s seen 14 of the last 17 winners finish in the top three last time out.

As always, here at GeeGeez, we’ve got all the key trends and stats to help narrow down the winners – use these trends to find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.

 

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York Horse Racing Trends

 

2:10 - Sky Bet Daily Price Boosts Handicap Cl3 (4yo+ 0-95) 7f ITV4

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One previous running
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor trained the 2019 winner
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 22% record with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Fahey is just 12 from 237 (5%) with his 4+ year-olds at the track

 

2:45 - Sky Bet Extended Dash Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 6f ITV4

 

16/16 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
15/16 – Had won between 2-6 times before
14/16 – Carried 8-12 or more
14/16 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Drawn in stall 10 or lower
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Raced at either Hamilton, York, Newmarket or Ascot last time
10/16 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
10/16 – Had run at York before
6/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Richard Fahey
2/16 – Won last time out
2/16 - Trained by Tim Easterby
9 of the last 14 winners carried 9-0 or more
Dakota Gold (10/1) won the race in 2019
Flying Pursuit won the race in 2017 and 2018

 

3:20 - British Stallion Studs EBF Lyric Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
9/10 – Placed favourites
8/10 – Drawn in stalls 2, 5 or 7
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
8/10 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
6/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Raced at York before
4/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
3/10 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/10 – Trained by John Gosden
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2

 

Ascot Horse Racing Trends

 

1.55 - Play Nifty Fifty Exclusively At Betfred Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 5f ITV4

9/10 – Had won over 5f before
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
8/10 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
8/10 – Carried 9-1 or less in weight
8/10 – Had run at Ascot before
7/10 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
7/10 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
6/10 – Aged 5 years-old
3/10 – Winners from stall 12
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 8/1

 

2:30 - Betfred 'Fred's Pushes' Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f ITV4

4 previous winners
3/4 – Aged 4 years-old
3/4 – Carried 9-3 or more
3/4 – Won over 1m4f before
3/4 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
3/4 – Had run at the track before
3/4 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 88 and 90
2/4 – Drawn in stall 7
1/4 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 7/1

3:05 – Betfred British EBF Valiant Fillies’ Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m ITV4

10/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/10 – Won over at least 7f before
10/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times before
10/10 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 5-10
6/10 – Drawn in stalls 7-9
6/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Won last time out
6/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter
3/10 – Drawn in stall 7
2/10 – Trained by William Haggas
2/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3:40 - Princess Margaret Betfred Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV4

14/17 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
14/17 – Had won just once before
14/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
12/17 – Won over 6f before
11/17 – Foaled in either Feb or March
9/17 – Winning favourite
7/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
5/17 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Won by the Hannon yard
3/17 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
8 of the last 14 winners were Irish bred
9 of the last 14 horses from stall 1 were placed
4 of the last 8 winners came from stall 1
Under The Stars (25/1) won the race in 2019

Note: The 2005 renewal was staged at Newbury