Tag Archive for: bet365 Mile trends

2025 Newmarket July Festival Trends – Day Three, Saturday 12th July

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As we head into day three of the Newmarket July Festival this Saturday there is bundles more to look forward to with five more LIVE ITV races too. The Group One July Cup (4:35) spearheads the afternoon's action at HQ and, as always, we've got all the ITV races covered with key trends to help you find the winners.

Newmarket July Meeting - Day Three, Saturday 12th July 2025

2:12 – Trustatrader Fillies’ Handicap Cl2 (3yo 0-100) 7f

16/16 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
15/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/16 – Didn’t win last time out
15/16 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
13/16 - Had won over at least 7f before
11/16 – Ran in the last 3 weeks
10/16 – Rated between 83-93 (inc)
9/16 – Placed favourites
6/16 – Drawn in stalls 10, 11 or 13 (2 each)
5/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/16 – Trained by the Hannon yard
2/16 – Trained by Charlie Appleby
2/16 – Winning favourites
Asian Daze (9/1) won the race in 2024

2:50 - bet365 Bunbury Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over 7f previously
21/23 – Raced 3 or more times that season
17/23 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
14/23 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/23 – Winners from stall 14 or higher
12/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
11/23 – Returned a double-figure price in the market
11/23 – Placed in their last race
10/23 – Returned between 10/1 and 16/1 in the betting
9/23 – Horses from a double-figure stall that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd
4/23 – Favourites (inc joint and co)
3/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (3 of the last 14)
3/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 16)
3/23 - Trained by the Hannon yard (2 of the last 5)
10 of the last 14 winners came from double-figure draws
15 of the last 17 winners carried 9st or more
10 of the last 17 winners carried between 9st and 9st 3lbs
Aalto (15/2) won the race in 2024
Biggles (5/1) won the race in 2023

3:25 - bet365 Mile (Handicap) (3yo) Cl2 1m ITV

21/23 – Had won over 7f or further previously
18/23 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
17/23 – Had 2 or more runs that season
13/23 – Unplaced in their last race
10/23 – Winners from stall 8 or higher
10/23 – Favourites unplaced
5/23 – Won their last race
5/23 – Winning Favourites
4/23 – Trained by Charlie Appleby (4 of the last 7)
The Richard Hannon yard have won 3 of the last 12 runnings

4:00 - bet365 Superlative Stakes (Group 2) Cl1 7f ITV

22/23 – Won over at least 6f previously
21/23 – Placed in their last race
20/23 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the market
18/23 – Won their latest race
16/23 – Won by either a March or April foal
14/23 – Had 2 or more previous career runs
13/23 – Winners from stall 5 or lower
10/23 – Favourites unplaced
8/23 – Winning Favourites
5/25 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard (4 of the last 15)
4/23 – Raced at Royal Ascot last time out
4/23 – Winners from stall 3
4/23 - Ridden by William Buick (4 of the last 7)
3/23 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
3/23 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2 of the last 8)
2/23 – Trained by Richard Fahey (2 of last 12 runnings)
2/23 – Trained by Mick Channon
The last 3 winners all drawn stall 2
Trainer Charlie Appleby has won 5 of the last 9 runnings
Ancient Truth (4/6 fav) won this race in 2024

4:35 – Al Basti July Cup Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) Cl1 6f ITV

Recent July Cup Winners.....

2024 Mill Stream (11/1)
2023 Shaquille (5/2 jfav)
2022 Alcohol Free (14/1)
2021 Starman (9/2)
2020 Oxted (12/1)
2019 Ten Sovereigns (9/2)
2018 U S Navy Flag (8/1)
2017 Harry Angel (9/2)
2016 Limato (9/2 fav)
2015 Muhaarar (2/1 jfav)
2014 Slade Power (7/4 fav)
2013 Lethal Force (9/2)
2012 Mayson (20/1)
2011 Dream Ahead (7/1)

July Cup Betting Trends

22/23 – Aged 5 or younger
21/23 – Had won over 6f before
19/23 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
18/23 – Had between 1-3 previous runs that season
18/23 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
18/23 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 race before
18/23 – Won by a horse trained in the UK
14/23 – Placed last time out
11/23 – Ran last time out in either the King Charles III Stakes or QEII Jubilee Stakes
11/23 – Unplaced favourites
9/23 – Won their previous race
6/23 – Winning favourites
4/23 – Irish-trained winners (O’Brien trained 2 of the last 7 winners)
3/23 – Filly winners
2/23 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (2 of the last 7)
2/23 – Trained By Hughie Morrison
1/23 – French-trained winners
15 of the last 16 winners aged 3 or 4
The average winning SP in the last 13 years is 15/2
Just one horse aged older than 5 has won since 1968
Charlie Appleby has never won the race
Aidan O’Brien has won the race 5 times before (1999, 2001, 2010, 2018 & 2019) – joint winning most trainer with Vincent O’Brien and Charles Morton

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Sandown TV Trends: Friday 25th April 25

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The ITV cameras head to Sandown Park this Friday (25th April, 2025)– as always on the big days, here at Geegeez we are on hand to take your through the best races from a TRENDS and STATS angle………that include the Bet365 Mile, Classic Trial, Gordon Richard Stakes and the Esher Cup.

Note: The 2023 meeting was called off due to a waterlogged track.

Sandown Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

1.15 – bet365 Handicap Cl2 5f RTV

10/10 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
9/10 – Drawn in stalls 5 or lower
9/10 – Returned 15/2 or less in the betting
8/10 – Carried 9-2 or less in weight
6/10 – Winning favourite (1 joint)
4/10 – Came from stall 4
2/10 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/10 – Ridden by Daniel Tudhope
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 4/1
Trainer Jim Boyle has a 25% SR with his 3yolds at the track
Jockey Billy Loughnane has a 30% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 24% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Hollie Doyle is just 2-23 riding 3yolds at the track

  • 2024 Winner: Equity Law (15/2)
  • Trainer: Andrew Balding

1.50 - bet365 Esher Cup (Handicap) Cl2 1m14y ITV

20/20 – Had won no more than twice before
18/20 – Carried 9-4 or less in weight
18/20 – Never raced at Sandown before
16/20 – Had between 2-4 runs before
16/20 – Drawn in stall 4 or higher
16/20 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
14/20 – Had won just once before
13/20 – Carried 8-12 or less in weight
13/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/20 – Had won over at least 1 mile before
11/20 – Unplaced favourites
11/20 – Won last time out
5/20 – Raced at Kempton last time out
3/20 – Ridden by Silvestre De Sousa
3/20 – Trained by the Hannon stable
3/20 – Winning favourites
2/20– Trained by John Gosden
Jockey Ryan Moore has won 2 of the last 4
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 23% SR with his 3yolds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon has just a 3% SR with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Billy Loughnane has a 30% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Ryan Moore has a 28% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Silvestre De Sousa has a 24% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Hollie Doyle is 0-24 riding 3yolds at the track

  • 2024 Winner: Hand Of God (Evs fav)
  • Trainer: Harry Charlton

2.25 - bet365 Gordon Richards Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV

18/20 – Officially rated 109 or higher
18/20 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
18/20 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
18/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
17/20 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had won at least twice (UK) before
16/20 – Had won a Group race before
14/20 – Placed favourites
14/20 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/20 – Winning distance – 1 length or less
9/20 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
8/20 – Irish bred
8/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint) (last 3 favs won)
7/20 – Had run at Sandown before
6/20 – Ridden by Ryan Moore (3 of the last 5)
5/20 – Trained by John Gosden (3 of the last 8)
5/20 – Won last time out
2/20– Ridden by James Doyle
6 of the last 8 winners drawn stalls 3 or lower
The average winning SP in the last 9 years is 11/4
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 27% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer William Haggas has a 24% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 2-33 with his 4+ year-olds at the track
Jockey Tom Marquand has a 22% SR riding 4+ year-olds at the track

  • 2024 Winner: Okeechobee (100/30)
  • Trainer: Harry Charlton

3.00 - bet365 Mile (Group 2) Cl1 1m14y ITV

17/19 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/19 – Had won a Group race before
16/19 – Had won over a mile before
15/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/19 – Had won 5 or more times before
12/19 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/19 – Aged 4 years-old
10/19 – Winning favourites
8/19 – Trained by the Hannon stable
7/19 – Raced at Newmarket last time out
6/19 – Horses drawn in stall 3 that finished second
6/19 – Had run at Sandown before
5/19 – Previous Group One winners
4/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Trained by David O’Meara
2/19 – Won by a previous winner of the race
4 of last 12 winners have come from stall 1
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 7/2
Silvestre De Sousa has ridden 2 of the last 4 winners
4 of the last 8 winners from stall 8
6 of the last 9 winners from stalls 4 (2) or 8 (4)
Trainer John & Thady Gosden have a 27% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon has a 21% SR with their 4+ year-olds at the track
Trainer Andrew Balding is just 2-33 with his 4+ year-olds at the track

  • 2024 Winner: Charyn (9/4 fav)
  • Trainer: Roger Varian

3.35 - bet365 Classic Trial (Group 3) Cl1 1m2f7y ITV

17/19 – Won between 1-3 times before
16/19 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
14/19 – Placed in the top 2 last time out
13/19 – Never raced at Sandown before
13/19 – Had won over at least 1m before
9/19 – Irish bred winners
8/19 – Raced at Leopardstown (2), Curragh (2) or Newbury (4) last time out
8/19 – Horses drawn in stall 4 that finished in the first 3
8/19 – Won last time out
6/19 – Winning favourites
5/19 – Trained by John Gosden
3/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (3 of the last 9)
3/19– Winners from stall 4
3/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
3/19 – Winners from stall 3
3/19 – Ridden by William Buick
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2
No winner from stalls 1 or 2 in the last 8 runnings
Trainer Ralph Beckett has a 23% SR with his 3yolds at the track
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has a 50% SR with his 3 year-olds at the track
Jockey Ryan Moore has a 28% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Hector Crouch has a 28% SR riding 3yolds at the track
Jockey Kieran Shoemark is just 3-34 (9%) 3yolds at the track

  • 2024 Winner: Arabian Crown (5/6 fav)
  • Trainer: Charlie Appleby

 

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