Tag Archive for: betfair hurdle trends

Betfair Hurdle Trends

Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair Hurdle is a Grade Three contest run over 2m 1/2f in February each year. First run in 1963, the race is always a hotly-contested race, while some punters might know the even better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, being that’s what the race was called before Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2012.

Despite more obvious Champion Hurdle trials on offer during the season the race has thrown up two horses – Persian War and Make A Stand – that went onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle later that season, while the 2013 hero - My Tent Or Yours - went onto be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto land the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month, while in 2017 the Nigel Twiston-Davis-trained Ballyandy won the race before running fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. More recently in 2018, Kalashinkov won this before running second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

12 months ago, in 2021, we saw the Jonjo O'Neill-trained Soaring Glory landed the prize - their second win in the race after also taking the pot in 2010 with Get Me Out Of Here.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2022 renewal – this year staged on Saturday 12th February.

 

Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners

2021 - SOARING GLORY (17/2)
2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 - AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)

Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends

19/19 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
18/19 – Aged 7 or younger
17/19 – Rated 130 or higher
16/19 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
16/19 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
16/19 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
15/19 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/19 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
15/19 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
14/19 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/19 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/19 – Irish bred
8/19 – Won last time out
8/19 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 15)
7/19 – Winning favourites
4/19 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/19 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/19 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/19 - Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2 of the last 12)
3/19 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 8)
2/19 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 10)
2/19  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/19 – Owned by JP McManus
1/19 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
24 of the last 25 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 14/1

 

To many horse racing fans February is not everyone’s favourite, but in more recent years my view is changing slightly on this.

I’ve also covered the Haydock Grand National Trial and newly-named Coral Chase in this month’s edition, but let’s not forget there’s a top Newbury mid-month fixture (Sat 12th), that supplies us with many Cheltenham Festival clues, that includes the Denman Chase, Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) and the Betfair Hurdle – it’s the last-named I’m going to focus on in a bit more detail.

Generally, one of the most competitive handicap hurdles on the calendar, this Grade Three contest is run over 2m 1/2f and is always well-supported by the big National Hunt yards. Backed up in recent years with the Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies and Nicky Henderson stables winning six of the last ten renewals between them - while 12 months ago the Jonjo O’Neill yard grabbed their second success in the race when Soaring Glory took the honours.

What are the other main trends to look for?

Weight – Being a handicap then weight carried, of course, has to be high up on the short list to look at. ALL of the last 19 winners carried 11st 8lbs or less, which will be the bulk of the runners, but we can take this trend a bit further with 11 of the last 19 carrying 10st 9lbs or less. Last year, this was another positive with Soaring Glory having just 10st 7lbs on his back. That said, a small word of caution is advised here as this weight trend could be taking a turn in the other direction. It’s worth pointing out four of the last five winners carried 11st 1lb or more, with 6 of the last 10 also ticking that stat.

Age – In short here, horses aged 7 or younger have dominated this race in recent times – winning 18 of the last 19. In fact, a 5 or 6 year-old has won ALL of the last 15 renewals too, so really these two ages look the ones to focus on. Since 1988, we’ve only seen two winners aged older than 7 years-old – King Credo (1993) and Geos (2000).

Recent Form – With 16 of the last 19 (84%) winners having raced in the last 9 weeks, this is another trend to look for, while that same percentage also finished in the first three in their most recent outing. With 8 of the last 19 (42%) winners having won last time out too this is a fairly high percentage for such a competitive race. In summary here, we are looking for horses that have been on the course in the last few months, that either won last time out or finished in the top three.

Betting – Despite the race being ultra-competitive, it’s generally one the punters have done well in. Yes, in 2020 we saw a 33/1 winner in Pic D’Orhy. However, in the last 19 runnings we’ve seen a decent 7 winning favourites (37%), while 50% of the last 19 winners came from the top five in the betting and 79% hailed from the first seven in the market.

Stables To Note – In the intro I mentioned the Paul Nicholls, Nicky Henderson and Nigel Twiston-Davies yards, who all have a fine recent record in the race. Twiston-Davies has landed three of the last 8 runnings, so is just edging it, but with five overall successes anything the Henderson camp run should also be respected. Nicholls won the race in 2020 and 2012, so will be eager to add more. The other yards to have on your radar is the Gary Moore camp – they’ve won this three times since 2007 and are sure to be firing a few bullets again in 2022 as they also had Fifty Ball, as runner-up in 2021. The Jonjo O’Neill yard are the final stable to respect having taken the race 12 months ago and also back in 2010, with the popular Get Me Out Of Here.

 

 

 

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Betfair Hurdle Trends

Staged at Newbury racecourse the Betfair Hurdle is a Grade Three contest run over 2m 1/2f in February each year. First run in 1963, the race is always a hotly-contested race, while some punters might know the even better as either the Tote Gold Trophy or the totesport Trophy, being that’s what the race was called before Betfair took over the sponsorship in 2012.

Despite more obvious Champion Hurdle trials on offer during the season the race has thrown up two horses – Persian War and Make A Stand – that went onto glory at the Cheltenham Festival in the Champion Hurdle later that season, while the 2013 hero - My Tent Or Yours - went onto be second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

The 2003 winner, Spirit Leader, went onto land the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival the following month, while in 2017 the Nigel Twiston-Davis-trained Ballyandy won the race before running fourth in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. More recently in 2018, Kalashinkov won this before running second in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.

In 2019, we saw the Nigel Twiston-Davies-trained Al Dancer win the race under jockey Sam Twiston-Davies, while last year the Paul Nicholls camp were successful with a 33/1 shot – Pic D’Orhy.

Here at GEEGEEZ, we look back at recent winners of the race and highlights the key stats ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year staged on Sunday 21st February.

 

Recent Betfair Hurdle Winners

2020 – PIC D’ORHY (33/1)
2019 - AL DANCER (5/2 fav)
2018 – KALASHINKOV (8/1 co-fav)
2017 – BALLYANDY (3/1 fav)
2016 – AGRAPART (16/1)
2015 – VIOLET DANCER (20/1)
2014 – SPLASH OF GINGE (33/1)
2013 – MY TENT OR YOURS (5/1 fav)
2012 – ZARKANDAR (11/4 fav)
2011 – RECESSION PROOF (12/1)
2010 – GET ME OUT OF HERE (6/1)
2009 – No race
2008 – WINGMAN (14/1)
2007 – HEATHCOTE (50/1)
2006 – No race
2005 – ESSEX (4/1 fav)
2004 – GEOS (16/1)
2003 – SPIRIT LEADER (14/1)
2002 – COPELAND (13/2)
2001 – LANDING LIGHT (4/1 fav)

Betfair Hurdle Betting Trends

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

 

 

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Sat TV Trends: 13th Feb 2021

We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick. The Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) are three of the feature races at Newbury, while at Warwick the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices' Chase gives us a chance to see some potential stars of the future.

As always, here at GEEGEEZ we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 -
Betfair Weighed-In Podcast Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

14/15 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Had run within the last 10 weeks
11/15 – Aged 7 or younger
11/15 – Carried 10-13 or more
10/15 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
10/15 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
9/15 – Unplaced last time out
9/15 – Carried 11-0 or more
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 7 years-old
6/15 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/15 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/15 – French bred
3/15 – Won last time out
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Raced at Haydock last time out

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

15/17 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
15/17 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
14/17 – Rated 150+
13/17 – Placed favourites
13/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Aged 8 or younger
11/17 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (4 winners)
11/17 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
10/17 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7/17 – Irish bred
6/17 – French bred
5/17 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
4/17 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman, Kauto Star & Native River)
3/17 – Returned a double-figure price
3/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
3/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
7 of the last 14 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 14 runnings is 3/1

 

3.00 – Betfair Cheltenham Free Bet Pot Builder Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

15/15 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
14/15 – Placed favourites
13/15 – Aged 8 or younger
12/15 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (3 winners)
12/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
12/15 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/15 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/15 – Winning favourites
8/15 – Won last time out
8/15 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (5 winners)
6/15 – French bred
6/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/15 – Ran at Sandown last time out
5/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/15 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase
Altior has won the last three renewals (2017, 2018 & 2020)

Note:
The 2019 running was staged at Ascot

 

 

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

18/18 – Carried 11-8 or less in weight
17/18 – Aged 7 or younger
16/18 – Rated 130 or higher
15/18 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
15/18 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
15/18 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
15/18 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
14/18 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
14/18 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
13/18 – Placed favourites
10/18 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
9/18 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
9/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
8/18 – Irish bred
8/18 – Won last time out
8/18 – Aged 5 years-old (including 8 of last 14)
7/18 – Winning favourites
4/18 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/18 – Trained by Gary Moore
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (3 of the last 7)
2/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 9)
2/18  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/18 – Owned by JP McManus
1/18 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
23 of the last 24 winners have been aged 7 or younger
Pic D’Orhy (33/1) won the race in 2020
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 14/1

 

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

2.05 – Close Brothers Warwick Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Just 6 previous running
6/6 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
6/6 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
5/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/6 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/6 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/6 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/6 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
3/6 – Winning favourites
3/6 – Irish bred
2/6 – Had run at Warwick before
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Indefatigable (7/2 cfav) won the race in 2020

 

2.40 – Agetur UK Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
8/9 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
8/9 – Won over 2m fences before
7/9 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
7/9 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
6/9 – Rated between 137-147
5/9 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
5/9 – Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
3/9 – Unplaced favs
4 of the last 5 winners have been 6 year-olds
Rouge Vif (7/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown
 

3.15 – Paddy Power Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

10/10 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/10 – Irish (4) or French (6) bred
9/10 – Aged 9 or younger
9/10 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top three
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
8/10 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
8/10 – Unplaced in their last race
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/10 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/10 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Clondaw Castle (11/2) won the race in 2020