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Stat of the Day, 12th January 2018

Thursday's Result :

1.30 Catterick : Workbench @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 13/2 Towards rear, effort before 3 out, never dangerous....

Next up is Friday's...

2.30 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Fly Home Harry @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m7.5f on Soft ground worth £4,614 to the winner...

Why?

This 9 yr old gelding is 4 from 12 over fences so far, including...

  • 4 wins and 2 places from 9 in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 3 wins and a place from 5 at 3 miles
  • 3 wins from 4 when rested for at least 2 weeks, but less than 8.
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 since moving to Charlie Longsdon's yard
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 on soft ground
  • 1 from 2 under today's jockey Paul O'Brien

And over the last two years, Charlie Longsdon's handicap chasers are 49 from 335 (14.6% SR) for 70.6pts (+21.1% ROI), from which...

  • males : 45/298 (15.1%) for 63.9pts (+21.5%)
  • 21-75 days since last run : 35/206 (16%) for 114pts (+55.3%)
  • at 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f : 16/97 (16.5%) for 63.6pts (+65.6%)
  • 9 yr olds are 8/43 (18.6%) for 11.2pts (+26%)
  • ridden by Paul O'Brien : 5/17 (29.4%) for 19.9pts (+116.8%)
  • when the jockey claimed 5lbs : 4/17 (23.5%) for 7.81pts (+45.9%)
  • and here at Huntingdon : 3/9 (38.3%) for 7.92pts (+88%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Fly Home Harry @ 5/1 BOG which was on offer with 10Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power, SkyBet & SportPesa at 5.35pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.30 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th October 2017

Wednesday's Result :

2.45 Worcester :  Pickamix @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 3/1 : Chased leaders, every chance after 3 out, not fluent last, no extra closing stages, beaten by 2.5 lengths...

Thursday's selection goes in the...

4.15 Southwell:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

A Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle contest over 2m4.5f on good ground...

...featuring a 4 yr old mare looking to build upon a solid runner-up run 27 days ago when she was returning from over 28 weeks off the track.

She's trained by Charlie Longsdon, whose sub-12/1 runners are 24/83 (28.9% SR) for 28.1pts (+33.9% ROI) here at Southwell since 2012, including...

  • 5 to 8 yr olds at 22/69 (31.9%) for 32.5pts (+47.2%)
  • Class 4 runners at 16/51 (31.4%) for 19pts (+37.3%)
  • and handicappers at 9/38 (23.7%) for 14pts (+36.8%)

AND...Class 4 handicappers aged 5 to 8 yrs old are 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 19.2pts (+74% ROI).

In addition to the above and if I'm honest, what first caught my eye is that she's a daughter of one of my favourite sires, the now sadly-departed Midnight Legend. Longer-term readers of this column will know of my liking for this one, but I assure you the basis isn't sentimental : it's just profitable!

Blindly backing all Midnight Legend progeny since the start of 2008 gives just over 4400 bets and although they win at a strike rate close to 14.5% and generate an ROI of over 13%, that's just too many bets from one source for most people.

So, as you can imagine, there are an abundance of profitable angles you can derive from such a massive sample size, but one of my favourites is this very simple angle... just back his Class 3/4 female handicap hurdlers!

From an initial set of 4411 runners above, this angle gives us 68 winners from 372 (18.3% SR) for profits of 269pts at an impressive ROI of 72.3% and can be further broken down (with this race in mind) as follows...

  • at trips of 2m3f to 2m6.5f : 43/205 (21%) for 179.9pts (+87.7%)
  • on Good ground : 24/131 (18.3%) for 110.8pts (+84.6%)
  • 6 yr olds are 27/117 (23.1%) for 66.1pts (+56.5%)
  • those last seen 26-45 days earlier are 20/92 (21.7%) for 107.9pts (+117.3%)
  • whilst here at Southwell : 4/14 (28.6%) for 5.36pts (+38.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Nightfly @ 3/1 BOG, which was available from Betbright, SkyBet, SportPesa & 10 Bet at 5.45pm on Wednesday, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.15 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2016

Tuesday's Result :

3.30 Southwell : Kamool @ 5/1 BOG (4/1 after 20p R4) WON at 2/1 (Chased clear leader, closed 4th, mistake 10th, led after 4 out, ridden and not fluent 2 out, driven and kept on run-in to win 1.5 lenghts)

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

3.10 Bangor :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Germany Calling at 7/2 BOG

Why?

Jockey Richard Johnson is riding really well (again!) at the monent with 6 winners from 24 in the last week and he boasts a record of 11 wins from 35 (31.4% SR) in handicap chases here at Bangor since 2009, generating level stakes profits of 47.2pts (+134.9% ROI) and he's an interesting and positive booking  to ride for Charlie Longsdon today.

Charlie, himself, isn't doing too badly either with his runners finishing 117231 in the last week, with a 2 from 2 record from his chasers. And more long-term, he also has a good record here at Bangor winning 24 of 106 races (22.6% SR) here for profits of 38.1pts (+36% ROI) since 2009, broken down as follows...

  • on ground other than heavy : 23/98 (23.5%) for 44.3pts (+45.2%)
  • males : 23/92 (25%) for 47.8pts (+51.9%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m 7f : 21/74 (28.4%) for 47.4pts (+64.1%)
  • 6-45 days since their last run : 14/62 (22.6%) for 28.3pts (+45.6%)
  • chasers are 9/42 (21.4%) for 21pts (+50%)
  • Class 3 runners are 6/26 (23.1%) for 34.7pts (+133.4%)
  • horses dropping down 1 class : 6/24 (25%) for 2.16pts (+9%)

AND...males running at trips shorter than 2m7f on ground other than heavy, 6 to 45 days since their last run are 10/33 (30.3% SR) for 29.8pts (+90.4% ROI)

...pointing to... a 1pt win bet on Germany Calling at 7/2 BOG, which was widely available at 8.15pm on Tuesday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Bangor.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 30th June 2015

Rosenbaum was backed all day as though he just couldn't lose and come race-time our 7/2 BOG bet was looking very good value indeed as he was sent off at even money!

He was the beneficiary of yet another patient and well-timed ride, this time from William Buick, who took the initiative just inside the final furlong and ran on/pulled away to open up a 4 length gap by the time he hit the line to add another 3.5pts of SP-smashing profit to the kitty.

Last one now of what has been a tremendous month, the...

7.30 Stratford:

Which is a Class 4, handicap hurdle for 4yr olds and older. The trip is 2m 0.5f on good ground and Richard Johnson will carry the weight of Geegeez readers' expectations on board Charlie Longsdon's 4yr old gelding, Zarawi, who currently trades at 100/30 BOG in places.

Both Charlie and Richard are in decent form...

Charlie Longsdon has saddled up 2 winners from 6 in the last two weeks, whilst over the past 8 weeks, his hurdlers are 12/30 (40% SR) for 21.3pts (+71% ROI) profit. of which the handicappers are 8/19 (42.1% SR) for 23.5pts (+123.6% ROI).

Richard Johnson, for his part, has ridden 19 winners from 83 (22.9% SR) in the last month with his hurdlers priced at 5/1 and shorter winning 11 of 22 (50% SR) for 14.3pts (+65% ROI)

They also work well together...

Since the start of 2011. the partnership has 25 winners from 87 (28.7% SR) for 32.4pts (+37.3% ROI), from which their hurdlers have won 17 of 49 (34.7% SR) for 8.4pts (+17.2% ROI) with those priced at 5/1 and shorter having a record of 17/32 (53.1% SR) for 25.4pts (+79.5% ROI).

Charlie's horses tend to go well here...

With 21 winners from 101 runners, the resultant 20.8% stable strike rate has generated level stakes profits of 38.4pts at an ROI of 37.6% with the hurdlers contributing 11 wins from 49 (22.5% SR) for 25.1pts (+51.2% ROI).

And since 2009, his handicap hurdlers are 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 23.2pts (+89.4% ROI) here.

Zarawi was a winner last time out, 3 weeks ago at Fontwell...

And Charlie Longsdon's handicap hurdlers who were winners last time out and then raced again at odds of 5/1 and shorter within a month of that win, went on to "double up" on 11 of 24 (45.8% SR) occasions producing profits of 8.24pts (+34.3% ROI), whilst since the start of 2013, those figures improve to 7 wins from 14 (50% SR) for 7.17pts (+51.2% ROI).

It was a novice hurdle that he won LTO...

And male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a Novice hurdle last time out, 16 to 25 days ago are 84/391 (21.5% SR) for 157.3pts (+40.2% ROI) since 2008 and those sent off at 11/8 to 9/1 are 76/288 (26.4% SR) for 156.5pts (+54.3% ROI)

And there's probably enough data there to back up the selection. But hang on, let's throw another micro system at it for good measure, shall we? 😀

OK, it was actually a handicap novice hurdle that he won by 9 lengths LTO...

And since the start of 2012, male handicap hurdlers who were winners of a handicap hurdle by more than 4 lengths LTO and race again within 2 months of that win, went on to win again on 237 of 934 (25.4% SR) reappearances, generating 179.3pts profit at an ROI of 19.2% with those priced at Evens to 11/1 winning 201 of 775 (25.9% SR) for 197.9pts (+25.5% ROI), from which those running here at Stratford are 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 27.3pts (+160.7% ROI).

Zarawi, for his part...

...has adapted to handicap hurdling really well, finishing 4171 in four outings to date and in those four runs, he has won over 2m and also over 2m 1.5f, so the trip should be fine here, he's 171 on good ground and also 171 when priced below 4/1. He's 1/1 under Richard Johnson and 1/1 at this Class 4 level and 2 from 2 in fields of 7 or fewer runners, whilst he has finished 411 when racing within 16 to 30 of his last run.

All in all, conditions look ideal for Zarawi here and I'm more than happy to place June's last bet on him at 100/30 BOG with Bet365. Or if you'd prefer to use BetVictor, then they're also offering the same price, whilst the rest of the market can be seen by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 7.30 Stratford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 17th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th June 2015

For the second day in a row, we landed a winner aided by an enterprising piece of riding. William Carson bagged the rail for Live Dangerously and as they approached Brighton's elbow/cutaway, he stole a bit of a march on the field and got first run for home.

He pulled away readily on the run-in to such an extent that he was able to ease the horse down once the job was done and still won by two lengths.

We almost got a bonus payout at 7/2, but the price contracted pretty much at the off to 5/2, meaning that our 11/4 BOG was the best price after all. A further 2.75pts in the pot means that with a fortnight of the month to go, we're already guaranteed profit for June and I'm aiming to kick on for more winners starting with Wednesday's...

5.45 Uttoxeter:

A Class 4, 3m 2f handicap chase on good ground where you can currently get 3/1 BOG about the 9yr old Greenlaw. Chasrlie Longsdon's runner is in fine form having finished 131 in his three runs this year and was last seen winning by 6 lengths at Worcester three weeks ago, under today's jockey Noel Fehily.

Charlie's runners are in good nick, having won 8 of 25 races in the last 30 days, whilst independently of the trainer's successes, Noel Fehily has ridden 11 winners from 46 in the same time frame, so both are going really well.

Charlie has a good record with his handicap chasers, especially at this sharper end of the market and since the start of 2009, those priced at 11/8 to 4/1 (which is where we'll be here!) are 65/213 (30.5% SR) for 36.3pts (+127% ROI) profit with a 2/6 record here at Uttoxeter bearing 2.34pts.

From those 213 chasers, class 4/5 runners are 40/119 (33.6% SR) for 36.7pts (+30.8% ROI), whilst those competing over trips of 2m6f to 3m4f are 38/109 (34.9% SR) for 39.5pts (+36.2% ROI).

Charlie Longsdon's Class 4 handicap chasers priced at 11/8 to 4/1 running over 2m6f to 3m4f are 20/51 (39.2% SR) for 27.2pts at an ROI of 53.3%

Here at Uttoxeter, the Longsdon jumpers are 14/54 (25.9% SR) for 21.1pts (+39.1% ROI) profit at odds of 7/4 to 17/2 since 2008, whilst those priced at 7/4 to 4/1 are 11/29 (37.9% SR) for 15.7pts (+54.1% ROI).

Jockey Noel Fehily, as well as being in prime form, is 15/50 (30% SR) for 21.95pts (+43.9% ROI) here at Uttoxeter since the start of 2013 and in handicap races over obstacles, he is 8/29 (27.6% SR) for 17.7pts (+61% ROI) and at odds of 4/1 and shorter, he has 6 wins from 13 (46.2% SR) here for profits of 13.5pts at an ROI of 104.1%.

As I mentioned earlier, Greenlaw was a winner by 6 lengths at Worcester 20 days ago and Charlie Longsdon's handciap chasers turned back out within 30 days of a win last time out are 15/49 (30.6% SR) for 2pts profit at a modest return of just 4.1%, but if the market likes them, it's usually a good sign, as those priced 6/5 to 4/1 are 13/26 (50% SR) for 16.2pts (+62.4% ROI).

And...male class 4 chasers aged 6 to 9 yrs old who were winners of a handicap chase by 2 to 10 lengths last time out and then run again after a break of 11 to 150 days are 113/438 (25.8% SR) for 91pts (+20.8% ROI) profit.

As for Greenlaw, well we know he's in good form and in chases, he is 2/3 on good ground, 2/5 under Noel Fehily, 2/5 at Class 4, 2/3 in fields of 8 to 11 runners, 2/5 with a tongue tie and 2/34 as a 9yr old!

I think that covers all the bases, so let's get a bet on! I've taken 3/1 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook, whilst 11/4 BOG is prevalent elsewhere, as you'll see by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 5.45 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th January 2015

Milosam attracted money all day and was eventually sent off as the 7/4 favourite (adv 9/4) at Taunton on Tuesday afternoon and he travelled well throughout the race, before a mistake 5 fences from home brought him crashing to the ground.

He had looked well set to extend his fantastic record over course and distance, before a first ever fall and thankfully with both horse and jockey safe and sound after the race, only our bottom line was dented!

We do, of course, get an instant chance to regain the loss with a runner in Wednesday's...

3.30 Leicester:

Where Noel Fehily rides the 5/2 BOG St. John's Point for Charlie Longsdon and is a horse i wanted to back last week before Huntingdon fell foul of the weather.

Today's trainer...

...Charlie Longsdon isn't exactly a frequent visitor to these parts, which is a shame, as he has enjoyed some success with his runners here in recent years. He has a record of seven winners from twenty-seven runners over the last four years on this track with the subsequent 25.9% strike rate generating 13.1pts profit at an ROI of 48.5% and with those runners priced below 7/2, as I expect this one to be, his record is 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 8.64pts (+123.4% ROI).

And his chosen jockey...

...Noel Fehily has won 106 times of his 535 rides for Mr Longsdon over the last three years and whilst that 19.8% strike rate actually produces a small loss of 4.2pts at Betfair SP, there's probably a modest profit to be had at BOG prices. However, we can dig down and find a profitable part of the combo quite easily.

Noel is 58/297 (19.5% SR) on Charlie's hurdlers and this has realised 31.1pts profit at an ROI of 10.5%, which is clearly a step in the right direction and in handicap hurdles contests,the figures improve to 24/135 (17.8% SR) for 58.2pts (+43.1% ROI).

Handicap hurdlers priced above 6/4, but below 11/2 have a 17/47 (36.2% SR) record producing level stakes profits of 31.4pts (+66.7% ROI)

This horse was a winner LTO, almost six weeks ago...

...when winning fairly comfortably by 3.5 lengths in a novice hurdle to achieve today's mark of 115.

Since 2008, handicap hurdlers who won a novice hurdle last time out and ran again 16-45 days later are 132/660 (20% SR) for 141.1pts profit (+21.4% ROI) when sent off in the 6/4 to 9/1 odds range, whilst those same horses rated from 103 to 123 are 85/370 (23% SR) for 149.7pts (+40.6% ROI).

The nature of the Leicester track is similar to that at Towcester, where he won last time out on his first attempt at a right handed track and the cheekpiece/tongue tie combination used to such good effect last time is also in place again here. At a half furlong shorter than that last run, the trip is no worry to him, nor should the heavy ground be, as he stayed 3m at Uttoxeter on heavy ground.

So, with the above in mind, it's a 1pt win bet on St. John's Point at 5/2 BOG with Boylesports for me. 9/4 seems to be the norm, as is shown when you...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Leicester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2014

No joy in Devon for us on Thursday, as the race was possibly one effort too many for a busy horse. Bathwick Man travelled well enough for the vast majority of the race and was kept well in touch until push came to shove 3 furlongs from home.

It was at this point that the race began to develop properly, but he didn't have enough in reserve and weakened out of contention to eventually finish 5th of 8 runners, 16 lengths off the pace.

Once again we beat the book, taking 4/1 about a 100/30 horse, but that was scant consolation, I'm afraid. I aim to recoup this loss as soon as possible and so my quest takes me North up the M6 to Cumbria and the...

3.45 Carlisle:

And the in-form Charlie Longsdon's horse Orange Nassau who is available to back at 7/2 BOG.

Six winners from sixteen in the last week is no surprise...

..to those who know how Charlie operates at this time of year. The months of September and October are particularly fruitful for his string, as most of them come back from summer breaks. Since the start of September 2010, these two months of the year have seen the Longsdon horses win 79 of 279 races: a 28.3% strike rate yielding a modest 23.8pts profit at an ROI of 8.5%. These aren't huge profits, but they are from blind backing at an average of 1 bet per day, so it's not bad as a starting point from which we can derive the following...

Handicappers : 37/141 (26.2% SR) for 19.7pts (+14% ROI)
Chasers : 29/99 (29.3% SR) for 14.1pts (+14.2% ROI)
Priced below 9/2 : 53/135 (39.3% SR) for 37.2pts (+27.6% ROI)
Handicap Chasers : 20/75 (26.739.3% SR) for 12pts (+16% ROI)
Handicap Chasers priced below 9/2 : 18/45 (40% SR) for 14.5pts (+32.3% ROI)

Charlie also has a decent enough record here at Carlisle...

...if not massively (or blindly!) profitable. He doesn't actually send that many runners here, but since 2011, six of his nineteen that have come here have been winners, which is a 31.6% strike rate. Unfortunately, backing all of them would have cost you 2.6pts, but there is profit to be made at the sharper end of the market, where we'll be playing today. All 6 winners here at Carlisle came from the 13 runners priced at 9/2 or shorter, with that 46.2% strike rate yielding a small 3.4pts profit to date. 3.4pts seems small, but it's actually 26.2% of stakes invested.

Orange Nassau drops markedly in trip after pulling up last time out...

Which I find interesting, if a little quirky, as I found that chasers can be quite profitable to back if running at the same class, but down in trip as their last race, in which they were pulled up. The strike rate isn't massive, as you'll see, but these horses tend to be underbacked, because people's first view is the dreaded P next the horse's name. As Matt rightly pointed out in his excellent piece about Tote bets yesterday (it's here in case you missed it), many people place their bets purely off the six numbers/letters in a horse's form line. It's not usually the best way!

Since 2008, these chasers pulled up last time out and now dropped in trip at the same level have won 144 of 1444 (10% SR) races. I did say the strike rate wasn't high and certainly not high enough as the main stat behind an SotD selection, but good for a reinforcement when you realise the 351.4pts profit from those winners is equivalent to 24.3% of stakes invested.

Since 2012, the figures are slightly better with 56 winners from 541 (10.4% SR) for 213.8pts (+39.5% ROI), of which 401 were dropping in trip by up to 5f (4.5f for our runner today!). 46 of these 401 (11.5% SR) were winners and the level stakes of 193.6pts generated are worth 48.3p in the pound from all bets.

We've also got a good trainer/jockey combo here...

Since the start of 2012, today's jockey, Noel Fehily's record on board the Longsdon chasers priced at 6/1 or shorter is very good indeed with 33 wins from 100 (33% SR) for 30.6pts (+30.6% ROI!) profit

Orange Nassau comes back after a break of 178 days today, but I'm not too concerned about that to be honest. This fits in with the yard's general strategy and if we look back to last year, this horse reappeared at Newton Abbot on the 11th October to win a chase over today's trip by 12 lengths off the back of a 199-day layoff.

He weakened in the closing stages of his last run at Exeter in April and although he runs off the same mark today, he's dropping back 4.5 furlongs to a trip where his record reads 6111 with the 6th place being his last run prior to the 199-day lay-off last year, so the similarities/patterns are clear to see.

It's also worth noting that he's 2P131 in these small fields races and whilst he's never had an outing in September, he fits the Longsdon early season profile perfectly with a 2 from 2 record in October/November.

The weight might be an issue, but a horse proven at this trip and at this time of year 7/2 BOG is ample compensation to me, so I'm happy enough to place my 1pt bet on Orange Nassau today. I've taken 7/2 BOG from Boylesports, but you can get the same offer from Hills & BetVictor, when you...

 ...click here for the latest betting on the 3.45 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 2nd October 2014

Nearest The Pin's fall 2 fences from home put paid to a kickstart to October's proceeding at Sligo, but I wasn't too disheartened at losing a point. I was happy that i'd backed him and he looked well placed to defy top weight and a 2pt drift in the market to 6/1 at the off.

He seemed to travel really well and coasted up to join the leader just before the penultimate fence and it looked like the plan would be to clear the fence and kick on for home. The camera angle on the top turn isn't great at Sligo, but it a seemed the horse didn't extend his front legs and pretty much landed on his knees, sending his jockey and our betting slips to the ground.

I don't like starting the month with a loser, but the beauty of a new month is that we've plenty (26!) more opportunities ahead of us: the next of which runs in Thursday's...

3.25 Bangor:

Where I'll be backing Charlie Longsdon's Tidal Way at 5/2 BOG with Hills.

Charlie's record here at Bangor is very good with 17 winners from 69 runners here since 2009. This 24.6% strike rate has generated level stakes profits of  47.5pts at an ROI of 68.9% to date.

From this 17/69 recent record..
In handicaps : 9/37 (24.3% SR) for 37.8pts (+102.1% ROI)
Over hurdles : 7/26 (26.9% SR) for 29.1pts (+111.9% ROI)
Priced at 4/1 or shorter : 12/27 (44.4% SR) for 16.4pts (+60.6% ROI)
Handicap hurdlers are 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 33.7pts (+210.8% ROI) with a 3/9 record when sent off at 6/1 or shorter producing level stakes profits of 7.8pts (+86.6% ROI)

The yard is in good form at present...

Which is no surprise as they tend to do very well at this time of year anyway.  With all runners priced at 4/1 or shorter in the months of September and October, since 1st September 2010, Charlie has had 63 winners from just 142 runners. This 44/4% strike rate is fantastic and has generated level stakes profits of 46pts at an ROI of 32.4%.

From that 63/142 record...
In handicaps : 30/66 (45.5% SR) for 36.7pts (+55.7% ROI)
Over hurdles : 28/60 (46.7% SR) for 20.5pts (+34.1% ROI)
Handicap hurdlers are 12/23 (52.2% SR) for 20.2pts (+87.9% ROI) with a record of 8/13 for 16.8pts since 1st September 2013.

Tidal Way runs after a long absence and some poor form...

It's true that he wasn't at his best in the spring and now returns after a break of 174 days, which might concern some people. However, if you look at this record, you'll see he didn't run well in the spring of 2013, before taking a break of 153 days to return to action here at Bangor on the 3rd October, where he was a winner over today's course and distance, virtually a year to the day.

He is 2 from 3 over course and distance, runs off a mark 2lbs lower than last years win and 4lbs lower than his highest winning mark and he has three carer runs in the month of October already, winning two and finishing third in the other. In short, he prefers this time of year to spring and he likes Bangor.  (I also like Bangor, who wouldn't? 😀 )

5/2 BOG is, admittedly, at the lower end of where I like to place my SotD bets, but I am expecting to be collecting later! I've got on with Hills, but the price is available with at least three other firms, so why not...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Bangor

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 3rd February 2014

After some indifferent performances from my selections over the last few days (Wednesday's gubbing aside), it was nice to record a small profit from Clarcam's run yesterday.

An E/W 2nd at 7/1 might have only generated a 0.2pt profit on the day, but that 20% return on the day isn't a bad target to aim for and it's the kind of ROI that we've run to in the 27 months of SotD. The real task is consistency!

I'm aiming to go one better than yesterday's result in today's...

1.45 Southwell:

Where, on what looks a really difficult day to pick winners, it's all about the trainer rather than the horse with a selection that probably looks like a bit of a punt!

Basically, if you backed every Charlie Longsdon runner in a NH race at Southwell in the last three years, you have got yourself 14 winners and 5 placers from just 47 bets. The win strike rate of 29.8% is excellent and has produced level stakes profits of 10.1pts, or 21.4% of stakes invested.

Four of his last nine runners here have won with a further two making the frame and his record on soft/heavy ground here in the last years is 5 wins and 2 places from 11, a win strike rate of 45.5% for 8.92 pts (+81.1% ROI) with a record of 3 wins and a place from 6 runners on heavy ground for a 2.61pts (+43.5% ROI).

If we go back to the original 47 runners over the last three years here at Southwell, 32 of them were priced at 14/1 or under with 10 of them winning (31.25% SR) and a further three were placed. Those 10 winners helped to produce 18.52pts (+57.9% ROI) profit and the record on soft/heavy ground was four winners and a place from just six runners for 12.2pts profit with a two from two (+4.9pts) record on heavy ground.

Charlie has just one runner today and Leith Hill Legasi runs here at Southwell on heavy, but not bottomless (rails moved to provide fresh turf) ground and at first glance looks a bit of a longshot at an average price of around 10/1 BOG, but the presence of two horses at 4/5 and 13/8 are probably keeping the rest of the field at artificially high prices. They'll possibly drift later, meaning our early BOG price should represent some value later.

Leith Hill Legasi will be ridden by Kielan Woods today who has produced level stakes profits of 49pts from his rides this season and we'll be hoping he can steer our mount into the frame at least.

As I said earlier, this horse is currently trading at around the 10/1 mark, so I'm happy to be able to place a 0.5pts E/W bet on Leith Hill Legasi  at 16/1 BOG with SkyBet. It's a far better price than anywhere else, but you can see for yourself, if you...

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Stat of the Day, 11th January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th January 2014

Two necks made up the total margin of defeat for third-placed Olivers Mount yesterday, as he just didn't quite have the last burst of pace required to overhaul the leaders.

He stayed the trip well enough and if I'm being super-critical, maybe he got going a fraction too late to get home after being well backed from our advised 9/2 right into an SP of 11/4.

We're not a million miles from Lingfield today as we go chasing in the...

12.25 Kempton:

Where the 4/1 BOG (BetVictor) chance Ice N Easy represents Charlie Longsdon in a Class 3 Handicap Chase over 2m 4.5f...

1. Since sending out his first chaser in 2006, Charlie Longsdon has proved to be very profitable for his followers. In fact, if you'd put £10 on every one of his chasers to grace a UK racetrack, you'd have made £530 profit. It's not quite enough to retire on, but a yield of 7.96% from blind backing on a large sample size is a good starting point.

Possibly of more relevance is the record since 2010 of his chasers sent off at 5/1 or under where has saddled up 79 winners from 209 (38% SR) for 74.23pts (+35.5% ROI)

Ice N Easy is making his debut for the Longsdon yard at the age of eight years old after 11 previous runs elsewhere...

2. Horses making their yard debut for Charlie Longsdon after having had 1 to 15 runs for other trainers tend to go well at the first time of asking. Since the start of 2011, that record reads as 12 winners from 47 (25.5% SR) for level stakes profits of some 189.7pts (+403.6% ROI). It doesn't take a mathematical genius to work out that a return of over 400% has to include some big priced winners, so let's take a look down where we normally operate.

It's a much smaller sample but those yard debutants sent off at 5/1 or under have won 5 of 17 races (29.4%SR) for 8.24pts (+48.5% ROI) profit.

Ice N Easy is making his comeback to the track after a break of some 270 days (c. 9 months), this might be a problem to some, but...

3. Since the turn of 2010, Charlie Longsdon has sent out 216 horses after a break of between 4 months and 2 years to decent effect. The results are 49 winners from 216 (22.7% SR) for 145.2pts (+67.2% ROI) with a 34.6% strike rate (34/106) record with those horses priced at 5/1 or under.

Without a run since back to back chase victories within 4 days in April 2013, there's no recent form to talk of, but if he can hit the ground running for his new yard, he looks fair set to complete a somewhat drawn out hat trick. He looked to be progressing nicely last campaign and any further improvement should be more than enough here.

I expect this one to attract some market support, so the advice is a 1pt win bet on Ice N Easy at 4/1 BOG with BetVictor, but if you want to see what the other bookies are offering...

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Cheltenham Trainers To Avoid?

Tim-Vaughan-sends-Valley--007

Vaughan - 0 From 91 With Cheltenham Runners!

It’s the first of the big Cheltenham Meetings this week – with the three day Paddy Power Gold Cup fixture starting on Friday and Andy Newton’s got six big yards that don’t do as well as you might think with their runners at Prestbury Park. Read more

Trainer Stats: 31th Oct 2013

JONJOWith the jumping action starting to hot up Andy Newton’s got 5 NH stables to look out for at the moment…… Read more

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 27th October 2013

Ifandbutwhynot ran a decent enough race and led in the run to the final hurdle. He was beaten over that one by Karinga Dancer who had far more left in the tank and went on to win comfortably, as we left back in third place at 4/1, half a point longer than we'd advised.

We turn back to a micro system of mine that has really been amongst the winners of late and a runner from a yard very much in form who'll be hoping to take the...

4.35 Wincanton

The trainer in question is Charlie Longsdon, who yard is in top form at present with 23 winners from 57 runners in the last month and whilst he sends three horses to Aintree today, he has just the one runner here in the shape of Theatrelands.

Theatrelands is another of my "Back To Form" horses, whereby I highlight NH horses running on the back of a win LTO within 30 days of that win, which came after a string (of at least 3!) of consecutive unplaced efforts.

When these horses have turned back out quickly and have been priced at 6/1 or under, they have gone on to win 70 times from 204 attempts (34.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 81.65pts, an ROI of some 40%. Three of the last six such qualifiers have won with another one making the frame.

Theatrelands showed promise in three bumpers with finishes of 1,8 and 3 before running third on his hurdles debut. There then followed a form line of 6909 before his 5-lengths win at Towcester 17 days ago.

He wore cheekpieces for the first time in that last race and it is hoped they'll do the trick again, where's he's up 8lbs in the weights, but still runs off a mark lower than his original allotted handicap.

It's also a step up in class for him today and this fact, when added to the rise in weight means we can get a decent price about Theatrelands today. I wrote this piece late Saturday / early Sunday, as I'm out for much of the day today (family stuff, nothing exciting!) and the general consensus was that he's a 9/2 shot, but BetVictor offered half a point more at 5/1.

They say fortune favours the brave, so I'm in for a 1pt win only bet on Theatrelands at 5/1 BOG with BetVictor. This price is likely to move one way or another before the off and to keep an eye on the market, simply...

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Trainer Stats: 15th Oct 2013

This week Andy Newton’s got three NH trainers and three flat yards to look out for…… Read more

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th October 2013

I was only mildly irritated at having burned the midnight oil late into Thursday morning to provide you with a stack of compelling reasons to back Moorlands Jack and then he decided to make a hash of the first fence and dumped his rider rather unceremoniously to the turf.

So, no run at all for our money and another -1 enters my results list. Hurdling today and I'm more hopeful this one will at least complete the...

1.50 Newton Abbot

Charlie Longsdon's horses are in fine fettle at present, 17 of his 21 runners in the last fortnight have made the frame with ten of them (47.62%) going on to win and he has a fair number of runners out today.

The one I'm interested in is his Scottish-sounding French recruit Harristown, formerly with Mme Christiane Head-Maarek (aka Criquette) who some of you may have heard of! 😀

Harristown makes his first start for Mr Longsdon today and his first in the UK, but you can guarantee he'll have been well schooled in France prior to his departure and now runs his first race for a yard not only on top form but one with excellent results when running horses on their debut for the yard.

In the 2011/13 period, Charlie Longsdon has given a first/new start to 150 horses, of which a more than creditable 33 (22% SR) have gone on to win. Some decent priced winners amongst that lot have helped return profits of 186.9pts, or 124.6% of stakes. The record this year alone is 5/32 (15.6%) for +14.55pts (+45.2% ROI) : a more realistic, but still highly acceptable figure.

I said the stats were slightly skewed by some higher priced winners at odds we'd not normally take for SotD, so we really should look at the normal odds parameters we normally impose. So from the original subset of 150 runners, we have...

8/1 odds cap : 26 winners from 100 = 26% SR. Profit of 25.45pts = 25.45% ROI. (3/19 this year)
4/1 odds cap : 20 winners from 50 = 40% SR. Profit of 24.88pts = 49.76% ROI. (3/12 this year)

So, a 4/1 odds cap is most agreeable for us here and fits in with the average odds profile of an SotD selection. The last piece of the jigsaw is the booking of Kielan Woods to ride Harristown today. Not only does Kielan take 3lbs off today, which is sure to help, he's also having a great season. Had you backed every one of his rides to a £10 stake this year, you'd already be over £498 better off at SP. Backing at BOG odds or Betfair SP could only increase this.

So with all the above in mind, I'm on Harristown at 100/30 with William hill, but this price is also available at Bet365 and BetVictor, so please...

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