Tag Archive for: cheltenham festival free tips and trends

Cheltenham TV Trends: Sunday 19th November 2023

Another big day ahead for the ITV racing team this Sunday (19th Nov) as they take in four races from Cheltenham on the final day of their three-day November Meeting - including Shloer Chase and the Unibet Greatwood Hurdle - a race trainer Dan Skelton has won twice since 2016.

Like all big race days, here at GeeGeez we are on hand with all the LIVE ITV race trends and stats………..

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.45 – Cheltenham Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (GBB Race) (Class 3) (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

9/9 – Aged 7 or younger
9/9 - Finished in the top 5 last time out
9/9 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
8/9 - French or Irish-bred winners
8/9 - Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/9 - Won between 0-1 times over fences
8/9 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
6/9 - Ran within the last 5 weeks
6/9 - Had run at Cheltenham before (hurdles)
5/9 - Won last time out
4/9 – Winning favourites
2/9 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill

2.20 – Jewson Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 3m3 1/2f ITV

19/21 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
19/21 – Had run at Cheltenham before
18/21 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
15/21 – Aged 8 or younger
13/21  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
13/21 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/21 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
10/21 – Irish bred
12/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/21 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
9/21 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
8/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
8/21  – Ran at either Cheltenham (6) or Sandown (2) last time out
8/21 – French bred
3/21 – Won last time out
3/21 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/21 – Trained by Tizzard yard (2 of the last 6 years)
3/21 – Trained by the Pipe stable
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/21 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 12 years)

2.55 – Shloer Chase (Registered As The Cheltenham Chase) (Grade 2) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m ITV

13/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
13/14 – Officially rated 150+
12/14 – Won on seasonal reappearance
12/14 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Favourites that finished 1st or 2nd
10/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
10/14 – Went onto run in the Champion Chase (2 winners, Put The Kettle On (2021), Sprinter Sacre 2015)
9/14 – Failed to win last time out
9/14 – Aged 7 or older
7/14 – Favourites that won
6/14 – Won by a horse aged 8 or older
5/14 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/14 – German bred
3/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
Nube Negra won the race in 2021 and 2022

3.30 – Unibet Greatwood Hurdle (A Handicap) (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 2m110y ITV

19/21 – Had won no more than 4 times before over hurdles
18/21 – Had won a 2m1f (or further) hurdles race before
15/21 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/21 – Had a recent run (within the last 6 weeks)
14/21 – Returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
13/21 – Finished in the top two last time out
13/21 – Officially rated 140 or higher
13/21 – Had run at Cheltenham before
12/21 –  Winning distance – 2 lengths or further
11/21 – Had run 6 or less times over hurdles
10/21 – Placed favourites
9/21 – Carried 11-4 or more
8/21 – Came from the first three in the betting
7/21 – Won their previous race
7/21 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
4/21 – Winners that carried 11-12
4/21 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
3/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/21 – Winning favourites
2/21 - Trained by Dan Skelton (2 of the last 7)
2/21 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 6)
2/21 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of the last 14)
2/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 21 years is 10/1
Only one winner since 1987 aged 8+ (Rooster Booster, 2002)
6 of the last 14 winners contested the previous season’s Supreme Novices’ or Triumph Hurdle

 

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Champion Chase Trends

Staged at the Cheltenham Festival each March the Grade One Queen Mother Champion Chase is run over 2m, with 12 fences to tackle. This is where we give you the key Champion Chase trends to help you find the winner based on past statistics – use these trends to whittle down the 2022 Champion Chase runners and find the best past winning profile.

Run as the featured race on the second day (Wednesday) of the festival the race was first run back in 1959 and given the ‘Queen Mother’ title in 1980 to celebrate the Queen mum’s 80th birthday.

The betting for the 2022 Betway Queen Mother Champion Chase sees the 2021 Arkle Chase winner - Shishkin - at the top of the market, with the likes of Energumene and the 2021 Champion Chase third Chacun Pour Soi best of the rest.

The Irish have won two of the last five runnings (both trained by Henry de Bromhead), but, surprisingly, it’s a prize that’s eluded the powerful Irish handlers - Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott.

12 months ago, we saw the 2020 Arkle winner - Put The Kettle On - follow-up, to record her third win on the Cheltenham track. She’ll be looking to join the likes of Altior and Master Minded aa recent back-to-back winners in the race.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at recent winners and highlight the key trends to take into the 2022 renewal – this year run on Wednesday 16th March.

Recent Queen Mother Champion Chase Winners

2021 - PUT THE KETTLE ON (17/2)
2020 – POLITOLOGUE (6/1)
2019 – ALTIOR (4/11 fav)
2018 – ALTIOR (Evs)
2017 – SPECIAL TIARA (11/1)
2016 – SPRINTER SACRE (5/1)
2015 – DODGING BULLETS (9/2)
2014 – SIRE DE GRUGY (11/4 fav)
2013 – SPRINTER SACRE (1/4 fav)
2012 – FINIAN’S RAINBOW (4/1)
2011 – SIZING EUROPE (10/1)
2010 – BIG ZEB (10/1)
2009 – MASTER MINDED (4/11 fav)
2008 – MASTER MINDED (3/1)
2007 – VOY POR USTEDES (5/1)
2006 – NEWMILL (16/1)
2005 – MOSCOW FLYER (6/4 fav)
2004 – AZERTYUIOP (15/8 fav)
2003 – MOSCOW FLYER (7/4 fav)

 

Queen Mother Champion Chase Betting Trends

16/19 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
17/19 – Had won at least 5 times over fences before
17/19 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before
15/19 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
13/19 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
13/19 – Won last time out
12/19 – Placed favourites
11/19 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
11/19 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
9/19 – Irish bred
8/19 – French bred
7/19 – Winning favourites
7/19 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/19 – Won the Arkle Chase the previous season
4/19 – Had won the race before
3/19 – Ran in the Game Spirit Chase (Newbury) last time out
The average winning SP in the last 19 runnings is 5/1

Other Queen Mother Champion Chase Stats

14 of the last 21 winners ran in that season’s Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown)
23 of the last 37 winners had previously won at the Cheltenham Festival
39 of the last 40 winners returned 11/1 or shorter in the betting
17 of the last 20 Arkle Chase winners to run the next season in this have finished placed or better
19 of the last 20 winners had won a Grade One Chase previously

 

Champion Chase – 24 Year Trends

17/24 – British-trained winners
7/24 – Irish-trained winners
Willie Mullins (Ire) is yet to train the winner
Nicky Henderson (UK) has trained 5 of the last 10 winners (won the race 6 times in total)
Paul Nicholls (UK) has trained 6 of the last 22 winners
Henry de Bromhead (Ire) has trained 3 of the last 11 winners
Jessica Harrington (Ire) has trained 2 of the last 19 winners

 

 

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