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Cotswold Chase Trends

Run at Cheltenham racecourse – normally in the third week of January at their Trials Meeting – the Cotswold Chase is run over a trip of 3m 1 ½ furlongs. The race is deemed as another Cheltenham Gold Cup trial, but maybe only in name as the last horse to land both races in the same season was Looks Like Trouble in 2000, while Master Oats took both prizes back in 1995.

Being Staged at Sandown Park in 2021 - Note, the 2021 running of the Cotswold Chase will now be run at Sandown Park on Saturday 6th Feb 2021, after the original race day at Cheltenham (30th Jan) was called off.

Twelve months ago in 2020 we saw the Nicky Henderson-trained Santini win the race under jockey Nico de Boinville – that was the first winning favourite in the last 17 runnings, while Santini went onto finish a close second in the 2020 Cheltenham Gold Cup.

Here at GEEGEEZ we take a look back at past winners of the Paddy Power Cotswold Chase and give you all the stats that mater ahead of the 2021 renewal – this year run on Saturday 6th February 2021.

 

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Cotswold Chase Past Winners

2020 – Santini (13/8 fav)
2019 - Frodon (9/4)
2018 - Definitly Red (7/1)
2017 – Many Clouds (8/1)
2016 – Smad Place (9/2)
2015 – Many Clouds (4/1)
2014 – The Giant Bolster (6/1)
2013 - Cape Tribulation (7/1)
2012 – Midnight Chase (11/2)
2011 – Neptune Collonges (11/2)
2010 – Taranis (16/1)
2009 – Joe Lively (11/1)
2008 – Knowhere (16/1)
2007 – Exotic Dancer (6/1)
2006 – See You Sometime (18/1)
2005 – Grey Abbey (10/3)
2004 – Jair Du Cochet (11/4)

Cotswold Chase Betting Trends

17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

 

 

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Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 30th Jan 2021

The bad news is the Cheltenham Trials Day fixture, that was due to be staged this Saturday, has been called off due to a waterlogged track.

The ITV cameras are, however, heading to Doncaster to take in the best of their action, including the ultra-competitive SkyBet Chase – a race the Alan King yard have won in two of the last four seasons.

As always, we got it all covered with all the key trends – use these stats to help find the best past winning profiles to help whittle down the runners and hopefully pin-point a few winners.

 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV4)

 

2.05 - Yorkshire Rose Mares´ Hurdle (Registered as The Doncaster Mares´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m110y ITV

10/11 – Had won over this trip before
10/11 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Aged 8 or younger
9/11 – Won last time out
8/11 – Went onto run in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
6/11 - Winning favourites
5/11 – Won between 1-3 times before (hurdles)
5/11 – Irish bred
2/11 - Trained by Philip Kirby

2020 Winner: LADY BUTTONS (P Kirby) 6/4 jfav

 

2.40 – Albert Bartlett Novices´ Hurdle (Registered as The River Don Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m110y ITV


11/11 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
9/11 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/11 – Winning distance – 1 ½ lengths or less
9/11 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
9/11 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
7/11 – Won last time out
7/11 – Placed favourites
5/11 – Irish bred
5/11 – Had raced at Doncaster before
3/11 – Winning favourite
2/11 - Trained by Nicky Henderson
8 of the last 9 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old

2020 Winner: RAMSES DE TEILLEE (D Pipe) 6/1

 

3.15 – Sky Bet Chase (A Handicap) (formerly The Great Yorkshire Chase) (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (5yo+ 0-155) CH4 3m ITV

14/15 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
12/15 – Carried 11-2 or less
12/15 – Aged 9 or younger
12/15 – Officially rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
11/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/15 – Unplaced favourites
9/15 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/15 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/15 – Irish bred
8/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/15 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Won last time out
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/15 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 9/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
4 of the last 15 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
5 of the last 15 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

2020 Winner: Ok CORRAL (N Henderson) 9/1

 

Cheltenham Trials Day Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV) -

**CANCELLED DUE TO A WATERLOGGED TRACK**

 

12.40 – JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (A Juvenile Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m1f RacingTV

15/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
13/17 – Placed favourites
12/17 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Triumph Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/17 – Had previously won at least once over hurdles in the UK
10/17 – Won last time out
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 ¼ lengths or less
10/17 – French bred (including last 8 winners)
9/17 – Returned 2/1 or shorter in the market
8/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Went onto be placed in that season’s Triumph Hurdle (3 winners, Defi Du Seuil  2017, Peace & Co 2015, Katchit 2007)
5/17 – Had raced at Cheltenham previously
4/17 – Trained by Alan King
4/17 – Priced 25/1, 50/1 or 100/1
3/17 – Won by a German bred horse
3/17 – Won by an Irish bred horse
Nicky Henderson has trained 4 of the last 8 winners
3 of the last 4 winners have been owned by JP McManus

2020 Winner: GALAHAD QUEST (N Williams) 6/1

 


13.15 – Timeform Novices´ Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f RacingTV

17/17 – Aged 8 or younger
16/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners, La Landiere Cathcart 2003, Close Brothers Novices’ Chase, Mister Whitaker 2018, Simply The Betts 2020, Brown Advisory and Merribelle Stable Plate Handicap Chase)
15/17 – Won between 0-2 races over fences in the UK previously
15/17 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Finished either 1st or 2nd last time out
14/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) in the UK previously
13/17 – Priced 13/2 or shorter
13/17 – Rated 128 or higher
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Irish bred
9/17 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
9/17 – Carried 11-2 or more
7/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Ran at Kempton last time out
5/17 – French bred
3/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Trained by Venetia Williams
3/17 – Won with 11-12 in weight
2/17 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
1/17 – Winning favourites (none in the last 11 runnings)

2020 Winner: SIMPLY THE BETTS (H Whittington) 11/2

 

1.50 – Paddy Power Millionaire Trophy Handicap Chase (A Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m 41/2f ITV

15/17 – Had won over at least 2m5f (fences) previously
15/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
15/17 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences previously
15/17 – Rated 130 or higher
14/17 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
14/17 – Ran within the last 7 weeks
12/17 – Aged 8 or older
12/17 – Had run over fences at Cheltenham before (7 won)
12/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner – Siruh Du Lac)
10/17 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
10/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Carried 10-7 or less
6/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
6/17 – Won last time out
4/17 – Ran at Newbury last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Won by the Hobbs yard

2020 Winner: CEPAGE (V Williams) 8/1

 

2.25 – Paddy Power ’45 Sleeps To Cheltenham’ Cotswold Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

17/17 – Officially rated 151 or higher
16/17 – Ran at Cheltenham over fences before (8 had won)
15/17 – Won over at least 3m before (fences)
15/17 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
14/17 – Won between 2-6 times over fences
12/17 – Priced 7/1 or less
12/17 – Went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (no winners, all placed 8th or better)
11/17 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
11/17 – Ran at either Wetherby (3), Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time
11/17 – Placed favourites
9/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – Won last time out
7/17 – Unplaced last time out
7/17 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
6/17 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the market
6/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls yard (5 wins in total)
2/17 – Won by the Oliver Sherwood yard
1/17 – Went onto win the Grand National (Many Clouds, 2015)
1/17 – Went onto win the Ryanair Chase (Frodon, 2019)
1/17 – Favourites
10 of the last 13 winners were aged 9 or 10 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 15/2
Looks Like Trouble (2000) was the last winner to go onto win the Cheltenham Gold Cup

2020 Winner: SANTINI (N Henderson) 13/8

 

3.00 – Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Grade 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) CH4 2m4f110y ITV4

15/15 – Placed 1st or 2nd in their last race
14/15 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
13/15 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles previously
13/15 – Winners that later raced at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (3 winners)
12/15 – Favourites placed
12/15 – Won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) previously
12/15 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
12/15 – Won their latest race
11/15 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old
10/15 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
10/15 – Priced 4/1 or shorter
8/15 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
5/15 – Favourites that won
4/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
4/15 – Raced at Newbury last time out
4/15 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable
3/15 – Won by the Alan King stable
3/15 – Winners that went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival

2020 Winner: HARRY SENIOR (C Tizzard) 4/1

 

3.35 – Paddy Power Cleeve Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/16 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
15/16 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
14/16 – Raced at Cheltenham (hurdles) previously
13/16 – Went to run in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle (5 won)
13/16 – Officially rated 154 or higher
11/16 – Winners that went onto finish in the top 4 in that season’s Stayers’ Hurdle
11/16 – Finished either 1st or 2nd in their last race
10/16 – Favourites placed
10/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/16 – Winners from the top 3 in the market
9/16 – Won their latest race
8/16 – Favourites that won
6/16 – Won by a French-bred horse
3/16 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable
Note: The 2006 running was staged at Sandown

2020 Winner: PAISLEY PARK (E Lavelle) 4/6 fav

 

 

4.10 – SSS Super Alloys Handicap Hurdle (CLASS 2) (4yo+) Soft 2m1f RacingTV


16/16 – Rated 120 or higher
15/16 – Had raced within the last 9 weeks
14/16 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
13/16 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles in the UK before
12/16 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (1 winner La Fontana)
9/16 – Unplaced favourites
8/16 – Placed 1st or 2nd last time out
8/16 – Irish bred
7/16 – Winning distance – 1 ¼ or less
5/16 – French bred
4/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/16 – Trained by Chris Gordon
2/16 – Trained by Martin Keighley
9 of the last 10 winners aged 7 or younger
11 of the last 12 winners carried 10-12 or less in weight

2020 Winner: BACK ON THE LASH (M Keighley) 13/2

 

 

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Windsor Avenue Could Be The Right Move In Caspian Caviar Gold Cup

Saturday’s big handicap is the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup Handicap Chase and as you’d expect, we have an absolute cracker in store. As usual this preview will look at a number of angles and data that are easily found with a Geegeez Gold subscription.

Pace

The ground at Cheltenham is somewhere between soft and good to soft so we’ll have a look at the previous data on this going for 16+ runner handicaps since 2009 at 2m4f:

A pretty strong edge for those that race nearer the pace here. The Win PL, EW PL and Place % all gradually fall the further back in the field a runner is placed.

Hold up horses have a remarkably poor record. This run style has produced a WIN PL of -131.00 and a WIN % of just 0.7%. Even the place strike rate of 13.38% is very low – around three times lower than that of the front runners.

There is plenty of hope for those that race in mid division though. With only a handful more runners they are producing twelve times the winners of a hold up style and a respectable WIN % of 8.11%. The majority of winners and placed horses race in mid division despite these runners certainly not being seen to best effect like the front runners are.

The pace map for this race will give us a further idea of which runners could be advantaged, or disadvantaged, by the run of the race here.

This race should be run at a good gallop with possible contested speed here. Leading contender Master Tommytucker seems most likely to lead based on recent runs but you couldn’t rule out Windsor Avenue, Good Boy Bobby or Southfield Stone being the early leader.

There are a decent number of hold up horses here and although possibly only ruling out relatively unfancied runners, those below Ibis Du Rheu in the above pace map may end up struggling to get into this.

Previous Winners

The Paddy Power Gold Cup is often a good trial for this contest, the last four winners all took that race in a month prior to winning this although none were victorious in their trial.

The last two winners of this race, Warthog and Frodon, finished 3rd and 2nd going into this race. This year Coole Cody will be looking to complete the double whilst Al Dancer (3rd in the race this year) possibly has the ideal profile in terms of having placed in that race as a prep for this. Saint Sonnet is the only other runner to come from that race and he was a final fence faller when fading from contention.

Coole Cody does look best of those reopposing here but completing this double is difficult so perhaps this race won’t hold the key this year.

Interestingly, according to Andy Newton’s trends for this race, the last 18 winners have all been aged 8 or younger. That would appear to rule out Coole Cody and another fancied runner, Master Tommytucker.

Other Angles

The two market leaders here, Master Tommytucker and Al Dancer, have already met this season at Newton Abbot in similar conditions. Al Dancer gave Master Tommytucker 6lbs and a 2.75 length beating on that occasion and now gets 3lbs from that rival so Al Dancer would appear to have the edge at the weights.

Cepage is one of just a few here to have not had a prep run this season but Cepage’s trainer, Venetia Williams, has an IV of 2.60 and a WIN PL of 21.54 with handicap runners who have not run for 60+ days. His absence should not be seen as a negative.

We all know how important previous course form can be here, 13 of the last 18 winners of this had previously raced here and 5 had won here before. Al Dancer and Coole Cody have a good record here, Al Dancer has finished 1st, 2nd, 5th and 3rd in four runs over fences here and also has a course hurdle win to his name whilst Coole Cody has finished 2nd and 1st from his two runs here on the chase course and he too has a course hurdle win.

Brian Ellison, trainer of Windsor Avenue, has a strong record in handicaps at this sort of distance range. He has a 23.26% strike rate from 43 runners which have provided a WIN PL of 15.47 and an IV of 2.34. Another trainer who does well in handicaps at this distance range is Andrew J Martin (Militarian). His three winners have produced a whopping 103.15 WIN PL and an IV of 1.59.

A jockey stat worth noting is the record of Bryony Frost at Cheltenham. She has a better than 20% strike rate at this venue which improves to 30.77 when only including rides for Paul Nicholls and 47.06% when examining just her rides here on his chasers. She rides Southfield Stone for Nicholls here.

Verdict

This is a really wide open contest and a case can be made for many. Personally I want to be on something that is going to be well placed here and I’m mainly looking at Windsor Avenue and Southfield Stone.

Windsor Avenue’s last time out 2nd to Imperial Aura received a nice form boost when that winner came out and won nicely at Grade 2 level next time out. He’s only been out of the first two once when completing and on that occasion he was 4th, beaten less than a length. His handicap mark could be a lenient one and he’s got the stamina to get up the hill in this ground.

Southfield Stone is another consistent performer who has finished 1st and 2nd here on his last two starts. He was a length and a half in front of Coole Cody here off level weights in October and is only 2lbs worse off here but the big problem seems to be the ground as he clearly enjoys good ground. Clear preference between the pair is therefore with Windsor Avenue.

It’s also worth mentioning that Cepage was 4th in this last year and 2nd to Frodon in this two years ago. He runs off the same mark as last year and is 12lbs higher than in 2018. He probably didn’t quite stay in the Ultima in March and he’d rate a decent enough place only bet but he could be vulnerable yet again for win purposes.

Sat TV Trends: 14th November 2020

A huge day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the Paddy Power Gold Cup the feature racethe ITV cameras are at Prestbury Park to take in four of the races, plus they are also covering two at Lingfield.

As always,here at GeeGeez we are on-hand with all the key trends & stats to help you whittle down the runners.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

 

1.40 – From The Horse’s Mouth Podcast Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RacingTV

15/15 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/15 – Aged 7 or younger
12/15 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
12/15 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
12/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
11/15 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
11/15 – Raced no more than twice over fences
11/15 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/15 – Raced at Cheltenham (4), Aintree (3) or Wetherby (2) last time out
8/15 – Aged 6 years-old
8/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/15 – Won last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites
4/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 – Trained by David Pipe
3/15 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
 

2.15 – Paddy Power Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Grade 3) (GBB Race) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

18/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
17/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
17/18 – Won by a UK-based trainer
14/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Carried 11st or less
12/18 – Had won at Cheltenham before
12/18 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
12/18 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
11/18 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
9/18 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/18 – Aged 7 years-old
8/18 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/18 – Placed favourites
5/18 – Won their last race
4/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Winning favourites
3/18 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/18 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/18 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/18 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/18 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 39 runners
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 10/1

 

2.50 – Paddy Power 3PM Kick Off Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

16/18 – Aged 7 or younger
15/18 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
15/18 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
14/18 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
13/18 – Officially rated 126 to 137
13/18 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/18 – Placed favourites
13/18  – Ran at either Cheltenham (7), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
12/18 – Irish bred
12/18 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
11/18 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/18 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/18 – Won their last race
7/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/18 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/18 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/18 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
5 of the last 12 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
First Assignment won the race in 2018
Golan Fortune won the race in 2019

 

3.25 – Paddy Power First Millionaire Qualifier Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

13/15 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
13/15 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
12/15 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/15 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Favourites unplaced
7/15 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/15 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/15 – Irish bred winners
6/15 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
6/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – French bred winners
2/15 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/15 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/15 - Winning favourites
2 of the last 7 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 11 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

3.55 – Karndean Designflooring Mares’ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed Race) C1 (4-6 year-olds) 2m 1/2f

 

8/8 – GB (5) or Irish (3) bred
7/8 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
7/8 – Won at least once before in a NH Flat race
6/8 – Won last time out
6/8 – Had never raced at Cheltenham before
5/8 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
4/8 – Unplaced favourites
4/8 – Returned 14/1 or bigger in the betting
2/8 – Winning favourites
2/8 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in recent years is 11/1

Note: The 2016 running was a dead-heat

 

 

 

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

3.05 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

12/14 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Rated between 102 and 112
11/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/14 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/14 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/14 – Favourites placed in the top two
9/14 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Master The World (10/1) won the race in 2017 and 2018

 

3.40 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

12/13 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
12/13 – Didn’t win last time out
11/13 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Aged 4 or older
10/13 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Won 5 or more times before
9/13 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
9/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Unplaced favourites
4/13 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race in 2017
Encrypted won the race in 2018
Judicial won the race in 2019

 

 

 

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Cheltenham TV Trends: Friday 13th November 2020

This Friday we’ve a cracking jumps card from the home of jumps racing – Cheltenham – as their three-day November Meeting gets underway.

To help narrow down the field and hopefully find the winners - we give you all the trends and stats that matter ahead of the FOUR LIVE ITV races from the opening day of the Cheltenham November Meeting this Friday (13th Nov 2020).

Use these Cheltenham trends to find the best profiles of past winners.

 

1:50 – Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase Cl2 2m ITV

16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
15/17 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
15/17 – Raced at Cheltenham before
14/17 – Raced at least 5 times over fences previously
13/17 – Priced 9/1 or shorter
10/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
10/17 – Unplaced in their previous race
9/17 – Having their first run of the season
9/17 – Favourites placed
8/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting
6/17 – French-bred horse
4/17 – Favourites that won
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
3/17 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Raced at Ascot last time out
3/17 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
2/17 – Won their most recent race
2/17 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/17 – Trained by Paul Henderson (2 of last 3 runnings)
0/17 – Irish-trained winners
Bun Doran won the race in 2018
Doitforthevillage won the race in 2017

2.25 – SSS Super Alloys Supports Racing Welfare Novices´ Chase Cl2 2m4f110y ITV

17/17 – Won by a horse aged 5 or older
16/17 – Won between 0 and 1 times over fences previously
15/17 – Priced 6/1 or shorter
15/17 – Ran between 0 and 2 times over fences
14/17 -  Finished in the top three in their latest race
13/17 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
12/17 – Favourites placed
12/17 – Placed in the first two in their previous race
11/17 – Won by a horse aged 6 years-old  (10 of last 12 runnings)
9/17 – Irish-bred horse
8/17 – Raced at either Aintree (2), Cheltenham (4) or Auteuil (2) last time out
8/17 – Winning distance – 6 lengths or more
8/17 – First run over fences
8/17 – Raced already that season
7/17 – Won their latest race
6/17 – French-bred horse
6/17 – Favourites that won
5/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
5/17 – Won over hurdles at Cheltenham previously
Dynaste, Denman, Weird Al, Imperial Commander, Time For Rupert and Grands Crus are all big names to win this race in recent years


3.00 - Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase Cl2 3m6f ITV

16/16 – Raced at Cheltenham previously
15/16 – Either Irish (9) or French (6) bred
14/16 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
12/16 – Winner came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Returned 6/1 or shorter
12/16 – Had a recent run that season
12/16 – Won at least 5 times over fences previously
12/16 – Unplaced in their last race
11/16 – Raced over this Cross County course previously (7 won)
11/16 – Favourites placed
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
10/16 – Carried 11-5 or more in weight
10/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
7/16 – Trained by Enda Bolger
6/16 – Favourites that won
Josies Orders won this in 2015 and 2018

 

3.35 - Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
12/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
12/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/15 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 years-old
9/15 – Won just once before (under rules)
9/15 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season

 

 

 

 

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Cheltenham TV Trends: Friday 23rd Oct 2020

The ITV horse racing cameras head to the home of jumps racing – Cheltenham racecourse – this Friday to take in FOUR LIVE races from the Prestbury Park track.

We take a look at the LIVE races and highlight the key trends and stats to help find the best profiles based on past winners of the races.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends

 

1.50 - Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m5f ITV4

 

10/10 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
9/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
9/10 – Won no more than 3 times (hurdles) before
9/10 – Irish (6) or French (3) bred
8/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
7/10 – Won 1 or 2 times over hurdles before
7/10 – Rated between 133 and 140
7/10 – Winning favourites
5/10 – Won last time out
5/10 – Had won over at least 2m5f before
3/10 – Rated 134
3/10 – Had run at the track before
3/10 – Ran at Newton Abbot last time out
3/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/10 – Irish-trained winners
2/10 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/10 – Ridden by Aidan Coleman
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/4

 

2.25 - Matchbook Better Way To Bet Novices’ Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV4

9/10 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
9/10 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
8/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
8/10 – Won last time out
8/10 – Favourites placed in the top 3
7/10 – Irish bred
7/10 – Won just 1 or 2 times over fences
7/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
7/10 – Aged 7 years-old
5/10 – Had run at Cheltenham before (fences or hurdles)
4/10 – Irish-trained winners
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
2/10 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 13/2

 

3.00 – squireintheair.com Handicap Hurdle Cl3 (3yo+ 0-140) 2m5f ITV4

 

10/10 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times (hurdles) before
8/10 – Returned between 8/1 and 12/1 in the betting
8/10 – Placed in the top three last time out
8/10 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
8/10 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
7/10 – Rated between 120-130
7/10 – Had won over at least 2m4 before
7/10 – Carried between 10-9 and 10-13 in weight
7/10 – Irish bred
6/10 – Ran in the last 5 weeks
6/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
1/10 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1

 

3.35 – October Handicap Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+ 2m ITV4

Just 5 previous runnings
5/5 – Aged 6 or 8 years-old
5/5 – Having first run back for the season
5/5 – Had run at the track before
5/5 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
4/5 – Irish (2) or French (2) bred
4/5 – Favourites placed in the top three
4/5 – Rated between 140-147
4/5 – Had won exactly 3 times over fences
4/5 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
3/5 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
2/5 – Winning favourites
2/5 – Won last time out
Trainers Harry Whittington, Paul Nicholls, Nigel Twiston-Davies, Neil Mulholland and Dr Richard Newland have won the race before
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 9/2

 

 

 

 

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2020 Cheltenham Festival Trends: DAY FOUR (Fri 13th March 2020)

Each day of the 2020 Cheltenham Festival our horse racing trends experts here at GeeGeez.co.uk will give you all the quick-fire positive and negative stats for EVERY race. Apply these to the final cards and you will build up a picture and a profile of which horses have historically done the best in recent renewals.

We hope they help narrow down the fields and also help pin-point plenty of winners at the 2020 Cheltenham Festival for you!

 

DAY FOUR: Friday 13th March 2020

 

13:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle   2m 1f

2019 Winner: PENTLAND HILLS (20/1)
Trainer – Nicky Henderson
Jockey – Nico de Boinville

Pluses…..

  • 20 of the last 26 winners won last time out
  • 7 of the last 11 winners were unbeaten over hurdles
  • Irish have won 4 of the last 7 runnings
  • French-breds have filled 9 of the last 15 places (last 5 runnings)
  • 11 of the last 15 came from the top 4 in the betting
  • 10 of the last 12 winners returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
  • Respect Henderson (7 winners), Nicholls, Hobbs and King-trained runners
  • 7 of the last 16 first ran over hurdles by November (5 of the last 8 by mid-Nov)
  • 10 of the last 14 winners returned 13/2 or shorter
  • The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a good guide
  • 9 of the last 10 winners ran in the Finesse, Adonis or Spring Juvenile Hurdles last time
  • 6 of the last 11 winners had run in France before
  • Nicky Henderson has trained 7 winners of the race
  • Gordon Elliott has had 2 wins and 2 seconds in the last 6 years

Negatives….

  • Take on horses that have won at 2m2f or further in the past
  • Avoid horses that last ran 56 days or longer ago
  • Avoid horses that had run 3 or more times over hurdles
  • Be careful of horses rated 138 or lower – no winner in the last 12
  • Willie Mullins has a poor record – currently 0-from-27


14:10 Randox Health County Handicap Hurdle   2m 1f

2020 Winner: CH’TIBELLO (12/1)
Trainer – Dan Skelton
Jockey – Harry Skelton

Pluses….

  • The Irish have won 8 of the last 13 runnings
  • 4 of the last 12 winners ran in that season’s Coral.ie Hurdle (Leopardsotwn)
  • 13 of the last 14 winners were rated in the 130’s
  • 7 of the last 12 winners returned 20/1 or bigger
  • 5 of the last 11 winners had run in 6 or less hurdles races
  • 10 of the last 14 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
  • 12 of the last 14 winners were priced in double-figures
  • 12 of the last 16 winners began their careers on the flat
  • Look for Mullins, Martins & Nicholls-trained runners
  • Respect the Imperial Cup (Sandown Park) winner
  • 9 winners since 2002 ran in the Ladbrokes or Betfair Hurdles that season
  • 10 of the last 19 winners came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 13 of the last 16 winners were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • 11 of the last 13 winners DIDN’T win last time out
  • Paul Nicholls is 4 from 28 (+18pts)
  • Willie Mullins is 4 from 33 (+46pts)
  • Trainer Dan Skelton has trained 3 of the last 4 renewals (last 2)

Negatives….

  • Strangely, previous course winners have a bad record
  • Since 1960 only 5 winners carried more than 11st 2lb
  • Since 1961, only 9 winners had run at the Festival before
  • Since 2005, just one winner rated 140+ (146 runners)
  • Avoid runners that hadn’t raced at least 4 times that season
  • Avoid horses making their handicap debuts

 

14:50 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle   3m

2019 Winner: MINELLA INDO (50/1)
Trainer – Henry De Bromhead
Jockey – Rachael Blackmore

Pluses….

  • 9 of the last 15 winners had run at Cheltenham over hurdles before
  • 14 of the last 15 winners contested a Graded Hurdle last time out
  • All of the last 15 winners won or placed in a Graded Novice before
  • 5 of the last 8 winners had won a Point
  • 8 of the last 15 came from the top 5 in the betting
  • 9 of the last 15 winner ran 47 days (or more) ago
  • 13 of the last 15 had run in a race over 3m
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were aged 6 or 7 years-old
  • 12 of the last 15 winners were 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 11 of the last 15 winners had 4+ runs over hurdles
  • 13 of the last 14 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 4 of the last 14 favourites won
  • Respect Jonjo O’Neill runners (2 wins)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in the last 23 days haven’t fared well
  • Avoid horses that DIDN’T finish 1st or 2nd last time out
  • Be wary of horses that have raced less than 3 times over hurdles
  • Willie Mullins is 1 from 35 in the race
  • 5 year-olds have a poor record
  • Only 4 of the last 15 winners hadn’t raced that calendar year

 

15:30 Magners Cheltenham Gold Cup Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: AL BOUM PHOTO (12/1)
Trainer – Willie Mullins
Jockey – Paul Townend

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners ran in the Savills Chase or King George that season
  • 17 of the last 19 finished 1st or 2nd last time out
  • 17 of the last 20 winners were 2nd or 3rd season chasers
  • 10 of the last 14 winners had run 9 or less times over fences
  • All of the last 20 winners were Grade 1 winners
  • 15 of the last 19 had won or placed at the Festival before
  • 16 of the last 19 winners hailed from the top 3 in the betting
  • 18 of the last 19 winners had raced no more than 12 times over fences
  • 11 of the last 12 winners ran 3 or less times that season
  • 16 of the last 23 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 11 of the last 14 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 14 favourites won
  • ALL of the last 20 winners were aged 9 or younger
  • Horses placed in a previous Supreme Novices’ Hurdle have a good record

 

Negatives….

  • Non-Grade One winners have a poor record
  • No winner older than 10 years-old since 1969 (0 from 71)
  • Horses rated 166 or less are only 5 from last 33
  • Avoid horses that had run on ‘heavy’ ground that season
  • Horses wearing headgear have a bad recent record
  • Willie Mullins has only won the race once (2019), 1 from 30 (had last 4 of the last 7 seconds and the 2019 winner though)
  • Only 2 winners since 2000 returned 9/1 or bigger
  • Just 1 of the last 12 winners had raced more than 3 times that season
  • Horses that were beaten in their first Gold Cup don’t fare well

 

16:10 St James’ Place Foxhunter Chase   3m 2½f

2019 Winner: HAZEL HILL (7/2 fav)
Trainer – Philip Rowley
Jockey – Mr Alex Edwards

Pluses…..

  • 25 of the last 29 winners were aged under 11 years-old
  • 25 of the last 34 won last time out
  • 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 in the race last year
  • 8 of the last 11 winners came from the first 4 in the betting
  • 27 of the last 31 started out in point-to-point races
  • 11 of the last 14 winners ran 34 days or less ago
  • Respect the Irish runners (won 6 of last 9)
  • 5 of the last 8 winners ran in the Leopardstown Inn Hunters’ Chase
  • 9 of the last 14 winners were aged 8-10 years-old
  • 8 of the last 11 winners returned 15/2 or shorter
  • 11 of the last 12 winners finished in the top 3 last time out
  • 9 of the last 10 winners rated 134 or higher (6 of last 7, rated 138+)

Negatives….

  • Horses that ran in a handicap race that season haven’t got a good record
  • Avoid horses that hadn’t won a race under rules
  • Just 2 winners in the last 43 years aged 12 or older
  • 26 of the last 28 horses aged 11+ (priced in single figures) have lost – but the 2019 winner – Hazel Hill – defied this trend
  • Avoid ex-handicappers rated 140+ in their careers
  • Avoid horses that raced 35 days or longer ago
  • Just 1 winner since 2000 hadn’t run within the last 53 days
  • Horses aged 11+ are just 5 from 236 since 1990
  • Just 3 winners since 2000 didn’t finish in the top 3 last time out

16:50 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase   2m ½f

2019 Winner: CROCO BAY (66/1)
Trainer – Ben Case
Jockey – Kielan Woods

Pluses….

  • 16 of the last 20 winners carried 11st or less
  • 14 of the last 16 winners had run at the Festival before
  • 8 of the last 16 winners ran in the previous renewal
  • Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
  • 8 of the last 10 winners came from outside the top 5 in the betting
  • 11 of the last 16 winners were aged 8 or older
  • Henderson, Nicholls, King-trained horses are respected
  • Respect JP McManus-owned horses (4 winners, 9 placed)
  • The last 9 winners were rated at least 138
  • 5 year-olds have a good record (from few runners of that age that have run)
  • Novices have won 5 of the last 11 runnings
  • 6 of the last 9 winners were rated between 140-147
  • 7 of the last 9 winners carried 10-11 or more in weight
  • 18 of the last 20 winners had run no more than 12 times over fences

Negatives….

  • Horses aged 10+ are just 2 win from the last 24 runnings
  • Horses that last ran 45 days or more ago have seen just 7 winners since 1990
  • Last time out winners are just 1 from last 14
  • Horses aged 6 or younger (from top 3 in the market) are just 1 from 28 since 2005
  • Just 2 winners rated 147+ since 1992
  • Horses that won a handicap chase that season have a bad recent record

 

 

17:30 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle   2m 4½f

2019 Winner: EARLY DOORS (5/1)
Trainer – Joseph O’Brien
Jockey – Jonjo O’Neill

Pluses….

  • 10 of the last 11 winners were 2nd season-hurdlers
  • 8 of the last 9 winners placed in the top 3 last time
  • All of the last 11 winners carried 11-1 or more
  • 10 of the last 11 winners had 8 or less runs over hurdles
  • 4 of the last 6 winners were Irish-based Novices
  • Irish have won 6 of the last 9 (5 making handicap debuts)
  • 31 of the 33 win and place horses were 1st or 2nd season hurdlers
  • Look for Henderson, Nicholls, Mullins, Elliot-trained horses
  • 9 of the 11 winners were placed in the top 4 last time out
  • 5 of the 11 winners won last time out
  • 5 of the last 6 winners had run over a longer trip that season
  • 7 of the 11 winners were rated 133-139
  • 7 of the 11 winners returned at a double-figure price (9 of the last 11 were 16/1 or less)
  • 5 and 6 year-old have won 10 of last 11 runnings
  • Look for jockeys that have ridden 20+ winners
  • Willie Mullins is 3 from 16 runners in the race (won 3 of the last 9 runnings)
  • Respect any Gigginstown House Stud-owned runners (4 winners, 5 places)
  • Paul Nicholls has won the race twice in the last 7 years
  • Gordon Elliott has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

Negatives….

  • Despite being named after his father the David Pipe stable has a poor record so far (0 from 19, inc 3 favs)
  • Just 1 winning fav in the 11-year history (7/10 returned in double-figures)
  • Horses in headgear are currently 1 from 54
  • Only 3 winners have previous Festival experience
  • Horses with 11st or less are currently 0-from-87

 

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