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QEII target on Champions Day for Century Dream

Ed Crisford is keeping his fingers crossed for soft ground on Qipco British Champions Day at Ascot to give Century Dream the best possible chance of bouncing back from a slightly underwhelming performance in Ireland on Saturday.

Having run out an impressive winner of the Celebration Mile at Goodwood last month, the six-year-old was the market leader to double his Group Two tally in the Boomerang Stakes at Leopardstown.

However, having cut out much of the running under William Buick, Century Dream weakened into fifth place as fellow British raider Safe Voyage emerged triumphant.

Crisford, who trains Century Dream in partnership with his father, Simon, said: “I think the ground was a bit quick at Leopardstown and they went strong enough up front.

“The ground was probably a bit quick for him, but he’s come back fine and I think we’ll just head to the QEII on hopefully softer ground.”

The following afternoon A’Ali was sent off favourite to grab Group One glory in the Flying Five Stakes at the Curragh, where he landed the Sapphire Stakes in July.

A'Ali failed to fire in the Flying Five
A’Ali failed to fire in the Flying Five (Dan Abraham/PA)

But all plans are on hold for the son of Society Rock after he trailed home last of 14 runners.

“He was disappointing – he looked a bit flat and a bit lethargic,” Crisford said.

“We’ll just see how he is this week before we make any further plans, I think. When they run too bad to be true, we need to put the horse first and see how he comes out of it.”

Bahrain Pride part of smart 12-strong entry for Mill Reef Stakes

Bahrain Pride is one of 12 contenders for the Dubai Duty Free Mill Reef Stakes at Newbury on Saturday.

Simon and Ed Crisford’s colt is unbeaten in two starts to date, having followed up a debut victory at Windsor with a Listed triumph in the EBF Ripon Champion Two Yrs Old Trophy.

The Kodiac colt looks set for a step up to Group Two class this weekend – and could be joined by stablemate Legal Attack, who won on his only previous appearance at Newmarket.

Mick Channon could saddle Group Three winner Cairn Gorm, who lost his unbeaten record when finishing down the field in last month’s Prix Morny at Deauville.

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Jack Channon, assistant to his father, said: “The horse is in great form and has been training well since his last run at Deauville.

“He lost the race in the stalls in the Prix Morny, but we have put a line through it and are still confident he is a high-class horse.

“He will do his final piece of work on Wednesday and we will decide whether he will go to the Mill Reef on Saturday or head straight to the Middle Park. Wherever he goes, we’re confident of a big run.”

The highest-rated horse in the field is Archie Watson’s Devilwala, with the Haydock winner having found only Minzaal too strong in the Gimcrack Stakes at York on his second start.

Marcus Tregoning’s Goodwood scorer Alkumait, Clive Cox’s Sandown winner First Edition, the Richard Fahey-trained Prix Morny third Rhythm Master and Roger Varian’s recent Doncaster sales race winner Line Of Departure also feature.

Eleven sprinters are in contention for the Group Three Dubai International Airport World Trophy.

Familiar names in the mix for the five-furlong contest include Equilateral – not beaten far into sixth place in Sunday’s Flying Five at the Curragh – Tis Marvellous, Moss Gill and Lazuli.

Addeybb is the potential star attraction in the Dubai Duty Free Legacy Cup – formerly The Arc Trial.

A dual Group One winner in Australia earlier in the year, the Pivotal gelding was last seen chasing home Lord North in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Should he step up to a mile and three furlongs this weekend, he could be taken on by Mark Johnston’s Elarqam, Andrew Balding’s Fox Chairman and Roger Charlton’s Extra Elusive.

The latter would be bidding for a third straight win at Group Three level following recent strikes in the Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock and the Winter Hill at Windsor.

Stat of the Day, 5th June 2020

Thursday's pick was...

5.05 Newcastle : Buniann @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 11/4 (Chased leaders, driven and effort over 1f out, every chance inside final furlong, kept on but failed narrowly) A nice run, but he just couldn't get his head in front. Smashed the SP up, though.

Friday's pick runs in the...

2.05 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Corvair @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 3, A/W handicap for 3yo over 7f on Polytrack worth £6,728 to the winner...

Why?...

Like yesterday's possibly unlucky runner, I'll break today's analysis down into horse, trainer and jockey. I don't always do it this way, I do often mix it up with some less than obvious angles!

But let's start with the horse himself, a 3 yr old Colt making his sixth start after finishing 22111 in his previous runs, all on the All-Weather, including of particular interest today...

  • 3 wins and a place from 4 going left handed
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 over 7 furlongs
  • 2 from 2 as a 3 yr old
  • 2 from 2 in handicaps
  • 2 from 2 here at Lingfield
  • 1 from 1 at Class 3
  • and 1 from 1 over course and distance

All of which makes me happy enough to move on to our trainer, Simon Crisford (now sharing his licence with son Ed) whose horses I keep an eye out for in handicaps on the Polytrack here at Lingfield, especially those at the sharp end of the market, as at odds shorter than 5/1, they are 19 from 50 (38% SR) for 19.3pts (+38.6% ROI), with the following filters of relevance today...

  • 15/27 (55.6%) for 31.8pts (+117.7%) after April each year
  • 13/29 (44.8%) for 18.2pts (+62.6%) with male runners
  • 10/27 (37%) for 14.3pts (+52.9%) in handicaps
  • 10/26 (38.5%) for 10.5pts (+40.5%) with 3 yr olds
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 8.3pts (+118.5%) with LTO winners
  • 3/9 (33.3%) for 2.27pts (+25.3%) over this 7f course and distance
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 3.79pts (+63.2%) with runners rested for 3-6 months

The Crisford sub-5/1 male handicappers are 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 18.8pts (+313.3% ROI) during May to December, including 3 from 4 (75%) for 11.28pts (+282.1%) as 3 yr olds.

Corvair is Simon (& Ed's, of course) sole runner at this venue today, although they do send one to HQ and the yard has a good record when sending just one runner to a track, especially in handicaps, as such runners are 62 from 267 (23.2% SR) for 72.6pts (+27.2% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2017.

Blindly backing an angle with so many runners isn't my thing, of course, so let's see if we can find some logical/profitable filters/angles, shall we? Such as...

  • 54/217 (24.9%) for 92.1pts (+42.5%) sent off at 5/4 to 10/1
  • 53/206 (25.7%) for 90.7pts (+44%) within 130 miles of base
  • 44/156 (28.2%) for 80pts (+51.3%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 40/156 (25.6%) for 68.8pts (+44.1%) with 3 yr olds
  • 21/72 (29.2%) for 55.8pts (+77.5%) in 3yo races
  • 21/59 (35.6%) for 68.2pts (+115.6%) in June/July
  • 6/15 (40%) for 25.3pts (+168.6%) with Oisin Murphy in the saddle (more on him very shortly)
  • and 5/9 (55.6%) for 30.2pts (+336%) with runners unraced for 3-5 months

And the Crisford solo travellers sent less than 130 miles from home to compete for less than £8k in a 3yo handicap at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 are 14/31 (45.2% SR) for 60.8pts (+196.2% ROI), including 10 winners from 15 (66.6%) for 49.1pts (+327.2%) during June to September!

And finally (!) for today, the jockey, as you've probably guessed from above is the excellent Oisin Murphy, who (a) I thought might have been at Newmarket today and (b) has been riding really well this week making the frame 13 times from 24 (54.2%) including picking up three winners.

But it's his relationship with team Crisford that is of particular note here, because Oisin is 7 from 25 (28% SR) for 17.7pts (+70.8% ROI) on the yard's handicappers to date, a good number of winners from not many rides and at backable prices, including...

  • 6/18 (33.3%) for 19.6pts (+108.8%) on male runners
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 24.3pts (+151.8%) on 3 yr olds
  • 6/15 (40%) for 25.3pts (+168.6%) in races worth £4k to £10.5k
  • and 3/10 (30%) for 7.92pts (+79.2%) at Class 3

...whilst combining the above tells us that Oisin Murphy is 5 from 6 (83.3% SR) for 29.2pts (+486.7% ROI) on the Crisford 3 yr old male handicappers in races worth £4k to £10.5k, including 2 from 3 for 9.82pts at Class 3...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Corvair @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 8.00am Friday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.05 Lingfield

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!