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Stat of the Day, 13th September 2016

Monday's Result :

4.15 Kempton : Satish @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 5/2 (Chased leaders, every chance 2f out, ridden chasing leader over 1f out until final 100 yards, went 2nd again post)

Tuesday's pick goes in the...

3.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Manton Grange at 4/1 non-BOG (until midnight)

Why?

George Baker's horses seem to be in decent nick at present and he won this race last year with Aqua Ardens, it won't be another 14/1 winner this year, but both George and I hope he can repeat the feat today.

Manton Grange lost nothing in defeat last time out almost 7 weeks ago, finishing within three quarters of a length of an odds on William Haggas trained winner (William's odds-on maiden win 64% of their races anyway!), despite our runner coming off a break of some 313 days.

Our 3 yr old, who gets a useful weight for age allowance here, should strip fitter for having had a run and will look to improve his yard's already decent record at this track.

George Baker's runners here at Chepstow are 15/80 (18.75% SR) for 87.8pts (+109.8% ROI) over the last 6 seasons (including this one!) and with today's race in mind, those 80 runners are...

  • 9/57 (15.8%) for 83.9pts (+147.2%) in handicaps
  • 10/47 (21.3%) for 91.8pts (+195.2%) from his male runners
  • 10/37 (27%) for 80.1pts (+216.5%) over trips of 7f to 1m
  • and 5/19 (26.3%) for 9.13pts (+48.1%) from 3 yr olds

George Baker / male handicappers / 7f to 1m / Chepstow / 2011-16 = 4/12 (33.3% SR) for 68.9pts (+574.2% ROI)

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Manton Grange at 4/1 BOG, which is non-BOG with Ladbrokes, who go BOG at midnight. I think the price will shorten, so I'm happy to risk the non-BOG, but if you want the insurance, 7/2 BOG was on offer in a couple of places at 5.45pm on Monday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.40 Chepstow.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 2nd September 2016

Thursday's Result :

8.40 Chelmsford : Sarsted @ 13/2 BOG 5th at 5/1 (Led 2f, tracked leader, ridden when short of room over 1f out, weakened final furlong)

Friday's pick goes in the...

8.30 Kempton:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kristjano at 5/1 BOG

Why?

This 4 yr old gelding was only beaten by a head when last seen, 24 days ago, at Lingfield, just failing to get home/off the mark at this 2m trip, but if approached in the same manner, this looks a slightly easier task on paper. Hopefully that will also be the case on sand!

He's trained by Chris Wall, who is a dab hand in A/W handicaps, as demonstrated by 55 winners from 287 (19.2% SR) runners since 2011 that have generated 113.3pts (+39.5% ROI) of level stakes profits and of those 287 runners...

  • those with a top 5 finish LTO are 42/165 (25.5%) for 120.7pts (+73.2%)
  • in the months of August to October : 32/145 (22.1%) for 88.2pts (+60.9%)
  • here at Kempton : 26/133 (19.6%) for 56.4pts (+42.4%)
  • those beaten by less than 4 lengths LTO are 24/97 (24.7%) for 60.1pts (+62%)
  • males are 22/97 (22.7%) for 33pts (+34%)
  • Class 5 runners are 20/97 (20.6%) for 74.3pts (+76.6%)
  • those ridden by George Baker are 18/69 (26.1%) for 30.5pts (+44.1%)
  • and those ridden by George Baker in handicaps here at Kempton : 13 winners from 40 runners (32.5% SR) for profits of 36.4pts at an ROI of 91.1%

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Kristjano at 5/1 BOG, a price offered in around a dozen places at 10.40pm on Thursday, but to see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Kempton.

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

SotD, Monday 8th August

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Haydock : Tapis Libre @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (Led briefly, tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, no extra final 2f )

Monday's pick goes in the...

8.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Funny Oyster at 11/4 BOG

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Why?

This 3yr old filly might well still be waiting for her first win, but she has been running consistently well in Flat handicaps (placed in 4 of 6 efforts) to suggest it could be her turn soon.

She likes some cut in the ground and gets on well with today's jockey Steve Drowne and she's getting a very handy 6lbs weight for age allowance today.

Her trainer, George Baker, is 61 from 541 (11.3% SR) for 143.9pts (+26.6% ROI) profit in Flat handicaps since the start of 2013, including...

  • 18/147 (12.2%) for 116.8pts (+79.5%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 18/129 (14%) for 87.6pts after a break of 31-60 days
  • and 14/102 (13.7%) for 111.4pts (+109.2%) at Class 6.

In addition to those figures, jockey Steve Drowne is 14 from 70 (20% SR) for 183.7pts (+262.4% ROI) here at Ffos Las since 2011, of which he is...

  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 27.2pts (+93.6%) on 3 yr olds
  • 10/28 (35.7%) over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs for profits of 127.8pts (+456.6%)
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 31.76pts (+211.8%) on 3yr olds over 7 to 10 furlongs, all of which is...

...leading me to... a 1pt win bet on Funny Oyster at 11/4 BOG with any one of ten or so firms quoting the same price at 1.00 am (don't ask, it's a long and uninteresting story! To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

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Stat of the Day, 8th August 2016

Saturday's Result :

2.35 Haydock : Tapis Libre @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 4/1 (Led briefly, tracked leaders, ridden 3f out, no extra final 2f )

Monday's pick goes in the...

8.30 Ffos Las :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Funny Oyster at 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old filly might well still be waiting for her first win, but she has been running consistently well in Flat handicaps (placed in 4 of 6 efforts) to suggest it could be her turn soon.

She likes some cut in the ground and gets on well with today's jockey Steve Drowne and she's getting a very handy 6lbs weight for age allowance today.

Her trainer, George Baker, is 61 from 541 (11.3% SR) for 143.9pts (+26.6% ROI) profit in Flat handicaps since the start of 2013, including...

  • 18/147 (12.2%) for 116.8pts (+79.5%) from his 3 yr olds
  • 18/129 (14%) for 87.6pts after a break of 31-60 days
  • and 14/102 (13.7%) for 111.4pts (+109.2%) at Class 6.

In addition to those figures, jockey Steve Drowne is 14 from 70 (20% SR) for 183.7pts (+262.4% ROI) here at Ffos Las since 2011, of which he is...

  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 27.2pts (+93.6%) on 3 yr olds
  • 10/28 (35.7%) over trips of 7 to 10 furlongs for profits of 127.8pts (+456.6%)
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 31.76pts (+211.8%) on 3yr olds over 7 to 10 furlongs, all of which is...

...leading me to... a 1pt win bet on Funny Oyster at 11/4 BOG with any one of ten or so firms quoting the same price at 1.00 am (don't ask, it's a long and uninteresting story! To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Ffos Las

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Potential for another ‘Blue Day’ at Newcastle

A historic renewal of the Northumberland Plate takes place on Saturday.

The event was established back in the early 1800s and held at Town Moor. It moved to Gosforth Park in 1882, and famously became known as the "Pitmen's Derby", during a period when mining played such a huge part of the lives of local people, and indeed people throughout the land.

The Northumberland Plate is now one of the richest two-mile handicaps in the world, and tomorrow will take place on an all-weather surface for the first time. The issue of moving from Turf to Tapeta has been covered at length, but the track has now been widely accepted as a success. Trainer Mark Johnston, one of the most fierce critics, had to concede: “It’s exactly as I expected. I don’t think anyone doubted that with Michael Dickinson providing Tapeta and a layout like this, it would be a fantastic all-weather track.

Putting the running surface to one side for now, let’s take a look at known trends in an attempt to find a likely winner.

Five and six year-olds have become dominant in recent years, winning six of the last seven renewals. Last year’s race saw the first five home come from that age group. Jumps trainers are worth a close look, when searching for a potential winner. Donald McCain has won two of the last six, and Jonjo took the race in 2013. In last year’s race, the Willie Mullins trained Max Dynamite finished second at 16/1.

Weight has proved a strong trend over the years, with only Tominator carrying more than 9-4 to victory in recent times. However, the handicap from top to bottom has become compressed over the past few years, and Saturday’s lowest race weight will be 8-12. Indeed, 12 months ago the first five home all carried 9 stone or more. I’d therefore be less likely to dismiss any contender on account of weight being carried.

It also makes sense to look for horses that have experience of running in mid to long distance events. The last ten winners had all won at trips from 1m5f up to two miles.

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Big-priced winners have been a common feature in the past decade or so, but in the last four years the winner has either been the race favourite or sent-off at 8/1 or less. This probably feeds into the narrative of stronger fields in recent years, with a compression of handicaps, giving top weights as much of a chance as those carrying less.

The markets have taken something of a re-shuffle in recent days with ante-post favourite Dannyday failing to make the cut for Saturday's £150,000 handicap. Sir Michael Stoute's lightly-raced four-year-old had been the 8-1 favourite, but will not be among the 20 starters.

Steve Rogers has taken over at the head of the betting. Trained by Roger Varian, the five-year-old ran a stinker last time in the Chester Cup, having been sent off favourite for the race. He’d looked progressive prior to that run, and could bounce back, though there’s every chance that he is now in the grip of the handicapper. No Heretic took that race at Chester, but was then sent to Royal Ascot by Nicky Henderson, and ran poorly on ground that would have been unsuitable. It’s asking a lot for him to bounce back so quickly after such a poor run just over a week ago.

Iain Jardine’s Nakeeta, chased home No Heretic at Chester, getting within a short-head of victory at the line. Another five-year-old, he is currently second-favourite for the race, and appears to have been laid out for the event. Not out of the first two in his past five appearances, he has the right type of profile for this, and should run well. He clearly likes these big handicaps, and I’d be surprised if he’s not in the frame.

The Hughie Morrison trained Nearly Caught is fancied by many to go close. Third in the race 12 months ago, he warmed up for this with a run at Chelmsford in May. He’s on the same handicap mark as last year, and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t run well. It’s notable that George Baker takes the ride. He won the race last year aboard Quest For More, and is terrific in this type of event. Expect him to play his cards late.

Antiquarium is an interesting runner for Godolphin. As a three-year-old he got within two lengths of Dartmouth, giving the Hardwicke Stakes winner 8lbs. That form looks incredibly strong now, and with a warm-up run under his belt the four-year-old is sure to be open to plenty of improvement. I think he’ll run a huge race, and at 14/1 looks a very fair price.

Godolphin also have Polarisation in the race, and he’s another with a realistic chance. He ran a solid race at Epsom last time, showing his liking for these big field handicaps. He’s on a fair mark, and should go close.

As always, there’s plenty in with a chance. I’m putting my faith in Antiquarium for Godolphin, a team that are flying at the moment. I’ll also have a little on Nakeeta, who looks sure to be in the shake-up.

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2016

Thursday's Result :

3.40 Kelso: Takingrisks @ 7/2 BOG non-runner (Withdrawn due to bad scope)

Friday's runner goes in the...

2.20 Lingfield:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Chelwood Gate @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

I'm going to take a fairly simple approach here and look at the trainer and then the horse in respect of the race as a whole.

Trainer Patrick Chamings' runners here since the start of 2012 sent off at odds of 5/1 and shorter have won 21 of 45 races (46.7% SR) for 39.2pt profit at an ROI of 87.1%. These are clearly above the norm, but interestingly the following criteria prevalent today make a pretty compelling case, as those 45 runners are...

  • 20/38 (52.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+104.9% ROI) when carrying 8-10 to 9-10
  • 14/35 (40% SR) for 23.8pts (+68.1% ROI) in handicaps
  • 13/26 (50% SR) for 31.3pts (+120.3% ROI) when rated (OR) 67 and higher
  • 14/23 (60.9% SR) for 38.5pts (167.4% ROI) racing 11 to 30 days after their last run
  • 11/23 (47.8% SR) for 23.4pts (+101.6% ROI) in Class 5 events

As for Chelwood Gate, a cursory glance at his 3/26 career record is a little off-putting and there's not much reassutrance coming from his 2 from 18 A/W return either, but (and there's always a but! 😀 ), that 2/18 on the A/W is actually 2 from 7 in Lingfield A/W handicaps, all wearing a visor and only our of the first three home on one occasion, so it's fair to say he does his best work here.

In terms of today's contest, both those two victories give the following data...

  • 2/6 over this 1m course and distance and 2/6 at Class 5
  • 2/5 at odds of 4/1 and shorter, 2/5 at OR of 69-75
  • 2/4 in fields of 7-9 runners and 2/4 when running 2 to 4 weeks after his last run
  • 2/3 in Feb/March
  • 2 from 2 under George Baker

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Chelwood Gate at 7/2 BOG with Bet365, who are best priced at present (6.10pm). To see if that's still the case...

...click here for the betting on the 2.20 Lingfield

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REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2015

Stat of the Day, 21st November 2015

Friday's Result :

2.40 Ascot : Tenor Nivernais @ 7/2 BOG : WON at 9/4 (Tracked leader until 4th, tracked leading pair, led approaching 2 out, clear between last two, won very easily by 27 lengths despite being eased right down)

Saturday's selection runs in the...

7.45 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Aqua Ardens @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Since the start of 2009, trainer George Baker has had 53 winners from his 248 runners at this track with that 21.4% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 79pts at an ROI of 31.9%.

Of those 248 runners, there has been 12 winners from 46 (26.1% SR) on the Tapeta track for profits of 30.4pts (66.2% ROI), whilst Pat Cosgrave has been in the saddle for 11 wins from 43 (25.6% SR), producing profits of 32.9pts (76.5% ROI).

The Baker / Cosgrave / Wolverhampton Tapeta angle is worth 8 wins from just 26 bets (30.8% SR) for profits of 39.4pts (+151.7% ROI), of which they are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 38.6pts (+321.3% ROI) at this Class 6 level and at odds of 9/2 or shorter, they are 7 from 7 for 22.3pts (3/3 @ C6).

Also worth noting is that the fact that since the start of 2008, George Baker has a good record in claiming races, with 17 winners from 69 (24.6% SR) for profits of 12.5pts (+18.1% SR). With this race in mind, those 69 runners are...

  • 16/38 (42.1% SR) for 19.1pts (+50.2% ROI) at odds of 6/1 or shorter.
  • 7/35 (20% SR) for 13.9pts (+39.6% ROI) from male runners
  • 2/3 (66.6% SR) for 4.95pts (+165% ROI) under Pat Cosgrave.

And my recommended bet?

A 1pt win bet on Aqua Ardens at 4/1 BOG with any one of a host of firms, but I'm using Coral, as they're holding my winnings from Friday's bet! To see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 7.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD, Monday 20th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

I was at a function on Friday evening that dragged on into the small hours of Saturday, so thankfully Matt stepped into the breech for us to ensure no loss of service.

When I logged in at lunchtime for quick peek at his pick, I was more than happy to back it myself based on stats and form and was surprised to see him put up a bit of a "no-show".

He was held in mid-division for a run that never materialised, leaving many people scratching their heads. I say many people, because he was very well backed in from Matt's advised 6/1 BOG to being sent off as the 9/4 favourite and whilst none of us like backing losers, if we continue to back horses at more than double the SP, we're on the right path to profit.

From a typically busy and tricky Saturday, we're back on Mundane Mondays, where quality is in short supply, but I'm very hopeful of one in the...

6.50 Windsor :

A 10 furlong, Class 5 Maiden for 3/4 yr olds and being a maiden, there's no winning form to consider, which must make the pair of runner-up finishes achieved by Ataman the best on offer.

Ataman is trained by Roger Charlton, whose horses are going really well again at the moment and in the last month his runners are 7/31 (22.6% SR), whilst in the last two months they are 16/71 (22.5% SR), so there's some consistency there too. George Baker, who rides Ataman today, is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 2.5pts (+22.4% ROI) on the Charlton string in the past two months.

Roger Charlton has a long-term 17% strike rate here at Windsor, but rather than rely on past glories, let's consider more relevant and recent results. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, he is 14/79 (17.7% SR) for 50pts (+63.3% ROI).

George Baker is no mug around these parts either, though and in the last five seasons has ridden 28 winners from 143 (19.6% SR) for 123.4pts (+86.3% ROI) here at Windsor with a record of 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+103.7% ROI) in maidens and a record on 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+151.3% ROI) on Roger Charlton's horses.

As we said earlier, there's no winning form to refer back to, but Ataman has finished as a runner-up on both starts to date. His first run was 10 weeks ago here at Windsor over today's course and distance where he was possibly held up a little too long before running on late in the piece.

He then reappeared at Wolverhampton three weeks ago stepped up in trip by 2f and was game in defeat, but was headed with just over a furlong to go and although he was eventually beaten by almost 4 lengths, he was 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

The winner that day, Who Dares Wins, has since run and won again (Salisbury, 9 days ago) and it is expected that with further improvement and a drop back in trip, that today will be Ataman's day. I certainly hope so, because I've just backed him at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 whilst the same price is offered by Betfair's Sportsbook, BetVictor, 10Bet and Paddy Power.

For a full market overview...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th July 2015

I was at a function on Friday evening that dragged on into the small hours of Saturday, so thankfully Matt stepped into the breech for us to ensure no loss of service.

When I logged in at lunchtime for quick peek at his pick, I was more than happy to back it myself based on stats and form and was surprised to see him put up a bit of a "no-show".

He was held in mid-division for a run that never materialised, leaving many people scratching their heads. I say many people, because he was very well backed in from Matt's advised 6/1 BOG to being sent off as the 9/4 favourite and whilst none of us like backing losers, if we continue to back horses at more than double the SP, we're on the right path to profit.

From a typically busy and tricky Saturday, we're back on Mundane Mondays, where quality is in short supply, but I'm very hopeful of one in the...

6.50 Windsor :

A 10 furlong, Class 5 Maiden for 3/4 yr olds and being a maiden, there's no winning form to consider, which must make the pair of runner-up finishes achieved by Ataman the best on offer.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Ataman is trained by Roger Charlton, whose horses are going really well again at the moment and in the last month his runners are 7/31 (22.6% SR), whilst in the last two months they are 16/71 (22.5% SR), so there's some consistency there too. George Baker, who rides Ataman today, is 3/11 (27.3% SR) for 2.5pts (+22.4% ROI) on the Charlton string in the past two months.

Roger Charlton has a long-term 17% strike rate here at Windsor, but rather than rely on past glories, let's consider more relevant and recent results. Since the start of the 2012 campaign, he is 14/79 (17.7% SR) for 50pts (+63.3% ROI).

George Baker is no mug around these parts either, though and in the last five seasons has ridden 28 winners from 143 (19.6% SR) for 123.4pts (+86.3% ROI) here at Windsor with a record of 7/34 (20.6% SR) for 35.2pts (+103.7% ROI) in maidens and a record on 4/13 (30.8% SR) for 19.7pts (+151.3% ROI) on Roger Charlton's horses.

As we said earlier, there's no winning form to refer back to, but Ataman has finished as a runner-up on both starts to date. His first run was 10 weeks ago here at Windsor over today's course and distance where he was possibly held up a little too long before running on late in the piece.

He then reappeared at Wolverhampton three weeks ago stepped up in trip by 2f and was game in defeat, but was headed with just over a furlong to go and although he was eventually beaten by almost 4 lengths, he was 17 lengths clear of the third placed horse.

The winner that day, Who Dares Wins, has since run and won again (Salisbury, 9 days ago) and it is expected that with further improvement and a drop back in trip, that today will be Ataman's day. I certainly hope so, because I've just backed him at 3/1 BOG with Bet365 whilst the same price is offered by Betfair's Sportsbook, BetVictor, 10Bet and Paddy Power.

For a full market overview...

...click here for the betting on the 6.50 Windsor

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

SotD, Monday 22/06/15

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2015

Jebediah Shine was a late withdrawal on Saturday, leaving me with nothing to report on, as we were denied the opportunity to add to a brilliant week's results.

Four winners and a runner-up from just five selections last week is going to be tough to match, never mind beat, but I'll certainly be having a go at it, starting in Monday's...

4.10 Chepstow:

A Class 5, 7 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where I've just taken 7/2 BOG about George Baker's gelding Orlando Rogue who comes here in fine form.

Under the right conditions, trainer George Baker is one to keep an eye out for, especially if there's a bit of market support for his runners.

In Flat handicaps since the start of the 2009 campaign, backing each of his 302 runners that were priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 odds range would have seen you back 67 winners (22.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 103.4pts at an ROI of 34.3%.

Personally those stats are enough for me to want to back this horse, but further analysis of those 302 handicappers gives us even more confidence in his chances.

Of the 302 runners, in decreasing sample sizes...

  • 54/232 (23.3% SR) for 92.6pts (+40.1% ROI) at trips of 5 to 10 furlongs
  • 26/116 (22.4% SR) for 54.6pts (+47.1% ROI) in Class 5 contests
  • 24/101 (23.8% SR) for 47.2pts (+46.7% ROI) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle
  • 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 17.9pts (+30.8% ROI) at this 7f trip
  • 5/20 (25% SR) for 24.1pts (+120.5% ROI) here at Chepstow.

Incidentally the Cosgrave / Baker / Chepstow angle has 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 66.9pts (+418.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2013 season. Those running at this Class 5 level are 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 69.6pts (+633% ROI), whilst those running over trips of 7f/1m are also 6/11 but for 61.7pts (+560.9% ROI).

Combine the two above and the trainer / jockey / track combo is 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 62.4pts (+780% ROI) profit at betfair SP. There is, however a 33/1 (BFSP of 46.44) skewing the data, so we'll remove that and focus on those priced 11/8 to 7/1, leaving us with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 21.5pts (+307.6% ROI).

Orlando Rogue has one win and two runner-up finishes from his last three starts, all over today's trip, where his record reads 10122. He's 2 from 7 under Pat Cosgrave and has finished 1122 when priced at 4/1 or shorter, suggesting the market usually has a decent handle in his chances.

Bet365 are currently offering 7/2 BOG about Orlando Rogue here and the same price is available from the Betfair Sportsbook and once the whole market has formed, you can compare all the main bookies by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.10 Chepstow

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Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 22nd June 2015

Jebediah Shine was a late withdrawal on Saturday, leaving me with nothing to report on, as we were denied the opportunity to add to a brilliant week's results.

Four winners and a runner-up from just five selections last week is going to be tough to match, never mind beat, but I'll certainly be having a go at it, starting in Monday's...

4.10 Chepstow:

A Class 5, 7 furlong handicap on good to firm ground where I've just taken 7/2 BOG about George Baker's gelding Orlando Rogue who comes here in fine form.

Under the right conditions, trainer George Baker is one to keep an eye out for, especially if there's a bit of market support for his runners.

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In Flat handicaps since the start of the 2009 campaign, backing each of his 302 runners that were priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 odds range would have seen you back 67 winners (22.2% SR) for level stakes profits of 103.4pts at an ROI of 34.3%.

Personally those stats are enough for me to want to back this horse, but further analysis of those 302 handicappers gives us even more confidence in his chances.

Of the 302 runners, in decreasing sample sizes...

  • 54/232 (23.3% SR) for 92.6pts (+40.1% ROI) at trips of 5 to 10 furlongs
  • 26/116 (22.4% SR) for 54.6pts (+47.1% ROI) in Class 5 contests
  • 24/101 (23.8% SR) for 47.2pts (+46.7% ROI) with Pat Cosgrave in the saddle
  • 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 17.9pts (+30.8% ROI) at this 7f trip
  • 5/20 (25% SR) for 24.1pts (+120.5% ROI) here at Chepstow.

Incidentally the Cosgrave / Baker / Chepstow angle has 7 winners from 16 (43.75% SR) for 66.9pts (+418.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2013 season. Those running at this Class 5 level are 6/11 (54.6% SR) for 69.6pts (+633% ROI), whilst those running over trips of 7f/1m are also 6/11 but for 61.7pts (+560.9% ROI).

Combine the two above and the trainer / jockey / track combo is 5/8 (62.5% SR) for 62.4pts (+780% ROI) profit at betfair SP. There is, however a 33/1 (BFSP of 46.44) skewing the data, so we'll remove that and focus on those priced 11/8 to 7/1, leaving us with 5 winners from 7 (71.4% SR) for 21.5pts (+307.6% ROI).

Orlando Rogue has one win and two runner-up finishes from his last three starts, all over today's trip, where his record reads 10122. He's 2 from 7 under Pat Cosgrave and has finished 1122 when priced at 4/1 or shorter, suggesting the market usually has a decent handle in his chances.

Bet365 are currently offering 7/2 BOG about Orlando Rogue here and the same price is available from the Betfair Sportsbook and once the whole market has formed, you can compare all the main bookies by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 4.10 Chepstow

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Stat of the Day, 9th June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 9th June 2015

Go Sakhee was the filling in a 3-horse sandwich at a vital point of Monday evening's contest and had to break his momentum at a time he needed to be picking up the tempo.

I doubt whether he had enough left in his locker after running a bit too freely early on, but I'd have thought he'd have been closer to the eventual winner than the near-5 length margin of defeat he actually suffered.

I don't agree with the "expert" on ATR who suggested he'd ran poorly, but I suspect the guy was talking through his pocket, having tipped the horse just before the off. 4th place at 11/4 (adv 100/30) wasn't the result we wanted, but it was far from poor.

We now go again in the...

3.25 Salisbury:

A Class 5 handicap for 3 yr olds over 5f on good to firm ground, where I've just taken 9/2 BOG about Roger Charlton's in-form filly Star Fire, who seeks a second win in three starts this season.

Roger's horses are running well, if not spectacularly at present, but a 6 from 34 (17.6% SR) record over the past month is creditable enough, as is his 14/86 record here at Salisbury since 2009. That 16.3% strike rate has yielded 8.7pts of level stakes profit at a modest but useful ROI of 10.1% with the horses priced at 2/1 to 9/1 winning 10 of 46 (21.7% SR) for 19.3pts at a much more palatable 42% ROI.

Jockey George Baker is also going well. Aside from winning Monday's SotD race, he's 4/15 in the past week and 21/112 ( 18.75% SR) in the past two months, which is consistently good. Since the start of the 2013 season, he has ridden 7 winners from his 41 rides (17.1% SR) here at Salisbury for profits of 16pts at an attractive ROI of 39%, of which...

  • he's 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 33.5pts (+185.8% ROI) at Class 5
  • he's 4/22 (18.2% SR) in handicaps
  • and at odds of 7/1 and shorter here, he is 6 from 20 (30% SR) for 12.5pts at an ROI of 62.4%.

Since 2011, the Baker / Charlton partnership is worth 34 winners from 163 rides, marginally better than 1-in-5 at 20.9% and in Class 5 handicaps with horses priced at 2/1 to 6/1, they are 4/12 (33.33% SR) for 9pts (+75% ROI) profit.

Star Fire is also a qualifier from a micro-system I use that I call 1-2/3/4. Basically horses that won two starts ago (ie 1) followed by a 2nd to 4th finish last out (2/3/4!). There are, of course, more rules to it than that, but that's just the starting point.

Such horses aged 3 to 5 running at trips of 5f to 10f on the flat and whose 2/3/4 run was 16 to 60 days ago are 255/1486 (17.2% SR) for 162.8pts at an ROI of 11%. To refine that large dataset into a more manageable size and something more relevant to this race, we can look at those now competing over 5 to 7 furlongs at Classes 4 to 6, where we have 75 winners from 349 (21.5% SR) runners and 166.1pts profit at an ROI of 47.6% to date.

Star Fire found Goodwood a little too sharp last time out and the return to an easier/galloping track and a 2lb easing in her mark should help her return to the form shown at Nottingham two starts ago. She's currently available in most places at 4/1 BOG, but the standout price you should try to get is the 9/2 BOG from Paddy Power. That's what I've taken and you can check if that's still the case by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 3.25 Salisbury

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Stat of the Day, 21st May 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st May 2015

Something strange was in the air yesterday, but I haven't a clue what it was. I was happy to take 11/2 about Troopingthecolur and was shocked to see it at 10/1 mid-afternoon. I still thought it was a sub-5/1 chance, so had another bet on it at 1pt E/W, thinking that a place lets me break even.

Shortly before the race, he was 14/1 and still convinced he had a good shout, I'd another 1pt E/W on him. Anyway the race was terrible, it was run really slowly and was set up for a finisher like the eventual winner who fairly flew home late on.

Our boy was a plugger and he plugged on fairly one-paced, but as nothing really came to challenge, he was able to hold on to 3rd place, beaten by just a couple of lengths. Never a 14/1 shot.

I made a small profit on the race, but for SotD records, it's a 1pt loss that I aim to recoup in Thursday's...

2.40 Goodwood:

A Class 2 handicap over 7f on good ground and a 3/1 BOG bet on Fiftyshadesofgrey, who is...

...trained by George Baker, whose record in Flat handicaps since 2010 is excellent with 72 winners from 533 (13.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 143.5pts at an ROI of 26.9%. Here at Goodwood, that record is 9/50 (18% SR) for 17.8pts (+35.6% ROI).

His record with runners priced in the 6/4 to 8/1 bracket is 62 winners from 273 (22.7% SR) for 103.2pts (+37.8% ROI) profit, with Goodwood providing him with 9 winners from 27 (33.33% SR) for a return of 40.8pts, which equates to £15.11 profit for every £10 wagered.

At trips of today's 7f or shorter here at Goodwood, his runners are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 36pts (+277.1% ROI) profit and he's 2 from 2 for 13.8pts this year already!

Fiftyshadesofgrey is admittedly better on the A/W (3/5) than he is on turf, where he has won just once from 13 starts, but has shown recently that he's getting to grips with running on grass, having finished 2nd and 1st on his last two efforts. He was denied by just a nose at Doncaster, before racing here 19 days ago and winning over today's course and distance.

He hit trouble in running that day and didn't get a clear run, but when he eventually got out, he sailed home to win by a length and a quarter going away from the pack. He would probably have won by further had he had a better run and reunited with regular jockey (3 wins together) Pat Cosgrave, there could well be more to come from an inform (121621 last 6 runs) horse who is 2/6 at today's trip.

Goodwood is also one of those tracks where former C&D winners do well upon their return, especially if they're in decent form. Since 2008, in handicaps here, former C&D winners priced 7/4 to 13/2 returning to Goodwood off the back of a win (anywhere) last time out, went on to win again on 11 of 37 (29.7% SR) occasions, producing level stakes profits of 34.9pts at an ROI of 94.4%.

Those whose run last time out was over course and distance, however, are 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 24.2pts (+105.1% ROI), of which those returning after a gap of 2 to 4 weeks are 5/15 (33.33% SR) for 18.7pts (+124.6% ROI).

I expect Fiftyshadesofgrey to give another good account of himself here and if kept handy, but out of trouble, should be taking this at 3/1 BOG, odds that are quite readily available by...

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The Best Performing Jockeys of 2014

Gavin Sheehan is 2014 Geegeez Jockey of the Year

Gavin Sheehan is 2014 Geegeez Jockey of the Year

Who were the best jockeys in 2014?

This article looks at the jockeys who can lay claim to having been at the top of their peer group in the past twelve months. It is something of a fun post because there are as many ways of interpreting the best in a bunch as there are people with an opinion on the matter.

My starting point was to look at those jockeys who had ridden at least 75 horses from the first three in the betting in Britain and Ireland during 2014. Although lacking somewhat in finesse, this does at least offer a chance to compare the merits of a diverse and statistically significant group of riders.

Best Jockeys of 2014

Jockey performance can be judged by plenty of different measures, but surely the two most meaningful are:

- Win strike rate (from a mainly academic perspective)

- Win profit/loss (from a mainly pocket-driven perspective)

Highest Strike Rates on Fancied Runners

The first table, then, shows the jockeys who won the highest percentage of their rides on horses in the first three in the betting in 2014:

Jockey Bets Wins Win Strike SP P/L
Sheehan, Mr G 154 57 37% 53.86
Mullins, Mr P W 135 50 37% -26.44
Walsh, R 205 73 36% -41.41
Townend, P 194 68 35% -0.19
Cooper, Bryan J 138 44 32% 6.48
McCoy, A P 737 228 31% -75.98
Geraghty, B J 359 107 30% 13.07
Power, R M 111 32 29% 45.66
Hanagan, Paul 320 92 29% 11.98
O'Brien, J P 325 94 29% -70

There are lots of conclusions to be drawn from this table, many of which may be obvious but are at least substantiated by the numbers.

First, it is utterly pointless backing either AP McCoy or Joseph O'Brien on fancied runners as a general principle. Their strike rates - around 30% - are impressive enough, except that they haemorrhage punters' pennies.

In both cases, a large proportion of the mounts in this sample are sent off favourite (as opposed to second or third market choice). And in both cases, blindly backing market leaders has led to only flesh wounds to the betting bank.

Rather, it is the subset of McCoy / O'Brien horses (falsely?) promoted to second or third favouritism which causes the significant leakage.

Shee-r Class

On the more positive side, the main man of 2014, in both strike rate and profit terms, has been Gavin Sheehan. Originally annexed to the Charlie Mann yard, Sheehan moved to Warren Greatrex in August, having ridden out his claim - as all National Hunt jockeys do in UK on the occasion of their 75th winner - on 19th April.

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This can be a curse for many riders, but not young Gavin, who has added a further 56 wins to his palmarès since then. Whilst the bulk of those have been for Greatrex, he's ridden eight winners (from 30 rides) for Mann in his eight 'unconditional' months, and one apiece for another thirteen stables.

Feel The Power

In Ireland, although the likes of Ruby Walsh, Patrick Mullins and, to lesser degree, Paul Townend and Bryan Cooper are largely on the market radar, the most interesting entry in the high strike rate list is Robbie Power. Power has been around for a long time, and he rode Silver Birch to win the 2007 Grand National. But he's never been so prolific - or so profitable - as he has this year.

So what's changed? Two things, actually.

Firstly, Power has been getting the majority of rides for Aidan O'Brien's resurgent National Hunt string. He's won on a third of the 39 horses he's ridden for O'Brien in the 2014/15 season, which is ten more wins - and thirty more rides - than the next most patronized pilot.

And secondly, he's enjoyed a bit of a renaissance when riding for Jessie Harrington. Power's overall 2014 figures have the look of happenstance about them when taken in the longer term context of his performance. And I'd not be betting on him continuing the fine run he's enjoyed during the last twelve months.

The Best of the Best?

The last thing to take from this table is the performance of Barry Geraghty. For such a high profile rider as Geraghty to ride at such a high strike rate on fancied horses, and still make a profit for backers at SP, is quite a remarkable achievement.

And the evidence of why Geraghty may be the best of the best was seen - circumstantially at least - at the 2014 Cheltenham Festival, when Geraghty twice rode the legs off Tony McCoy. On the Tuesday, BJ tactically outclassed AP as he squirted his mount, Jezki, up the rail and stole an ultimately insurmountable march from McCoy on My Tent Or Yours, bullying the latter between the last two. I backed the second to win plenty, and was undone by a tactical masterclass.

To prove that was no fluke, Geraghty repeated the dose on another McManus 'second string', as More Of That had his powder kept dry until the last before asserting past At Fisher's Cross - steered and cajoled by McCoy - and Annie Power. The mare gave Geraghty more to think about, but our Barry was having none of it atop his willingly progressive partner.

Top man, that Geraghty. Top man.

**

Most Profitable Jockeys of 2014

There's little sense dwelling on this table for too long, as it can be a case of the profit tail wagging the performance dog. Nevertheless, it is worth scouting those fellows that put the most theoretical profit into punters' pockets in the outgoing year.

Jockey Bets Wins Win Strike SP P/L
Sheehan, Mr G 154 57 37% 53.86
Power, R M 111 32 29% 45.66
Baker, George 477 134 28% 33.1
Keane, C T 203 54 27% 31.57
Tudhope, Daniel 342 95 28% 27.99
Berry, F M 181 47 26% 27.9
Beasley, Connor 163 40 25% 19.24
Doyle, James 369 105 28% 19.08
Kingscote, Richard 249 63 25% 18.68
Mania, Ryan 123 31 25% 14.47

Be Keane on the Fabulous Baker Boy

Take a bow, Gavin. As previously mentioned, Sheehan's was a cracking effort to top both the strike rate and profit charts in 2014. Mr Power has also been mentioned above, but George Baker, Daniel Tudhope and, in Ireland, Colin Keane, are all worthy of comment.

Each has ridden at least 200 horses sent off in the top three in the market, so to record profit at starting price is some achievement. Tudhope has been helped enormously by riding for David O'Meara, but then the reciprocal is also true.

George Baker's performance as a freelancer is arguably the most impressive. He rode winners for no less than 47 trainers against the above criteria, and he rode multiple winners for 26 different handlers. Baker is well worth following on fancied horses, as he's made an SP profit in this context in all bar one of the last five seasons.

Likewise, Colin Keane has been profitable to follow at SP in all four of his professional riding seasons; though, unlike Baker, most of his wins were achieved for a single trainer,  Ger Lyons. Specifically, 35 of his 54 wins on horses in the top three of the betting in 2014 were for Lyons.

Moreover, Keane failed to make the frame for just ten of the 32 trainers for whom he rode, nine of those on solitary runners.

Finally, it's sad in a way to relate that another Grand National-winning jockey, Ryan Mania - who bagged the 2013 renewal aboard 66/1 poke Auroras Encore - hung up his boots in November. He was the tenth most profitable fellow to follow against the criteria of this piece, but reportedly lost his love for the game, presumably on account of ongoing battles with wanting to eat the same amount that most 'normal' humans do.

A large number of jockeys are superhuman but, even amongst such dedicated souls, there are super-super-humans, as the numbers above attest.

p.s. Tomorrow, the top trainers of 2014...

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 20th November 2014

In the three years that Matt and myself have been doing SotD, you can probably count on one hand the number of times we've been critical of the jockeys riding our selections. The truth is that we are both full of admiration and respect for what they do, but sometimes they get it quite wrong and I can't help but feel that's what happened at Kempton with James Doyle on Wednesday evening.

For us to back a horse of Captain Cat's calibre at 3/1 BOG and see him sent off at 6/5 made me feel that we were going to be having a very good day, but the horse was held up so far off the pace it was almost ridiculous. Yes, he likes to come later in the piece, but by the time James asked him to go and win the race, he'd already lost it.

End result, 4th at 6/5, a length and a half shy of winning a race he should have taken relatively comfortably. I'm not talking through my pocket here either, I'm genuinely frustrated at seeing a horse not being given the chance to fulfill its potential.

Anyway rant/moan over with, I need a winner after that episode, and so I now turn (with an open mind! :D) towards the...

6.40 Kempton:

Because if at first you don't succeed, you are to try again!

Thursday's Kempton hopeful is Knight Owl, currently priced at 5/1 BOG and to be ridden by George Baker for the James Fanshawe yard.

Let's start with the trainer's overall record...

Since the start of 2011, if you'd placed a £10 bet on each of Mr Fanshawe's runners, you'd now be sitting on level stakes profits of £1852, courtesy of backing 146 winners from 925 runners at a strike rate of 15.8% with that £1852 profit equating to a 20% return on your money.

The original 925 runners can now be broken down as follows...

On the A/W : 71/358 (19.8% SR) for 54.8pts (+15.3% ROI) profit.
In handicaps : 87/491 (17.7% SR) for 75pts (+15.3% ROI)
A/W Handicaps : 43/200 (21.5% SR) for 68.3pts (+34.1% ROI) and...
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 19/97 (19.6% SR) for 34pts (+35.1% ROI)

He also has a particularly good record here at Kempton...

...and from the 358 overall A/W runners, the figures here at Kempton are as follows:

On the A/W : 54/246 (22% SR) for 98.3pts (+40% ROI) profit.
A/W Handicaps : 33/140 (23.6% SR) for 90.7pts (+64.8% ROI) and...
A/W 3yo+ hcps : 14/66 (21.2% SR) for 45.9pts (+69.5% ROI)

He also does well in these 3yo+ handicaps under more specialised circumstances...

He's one of a number of trainers I follow with runners fitting the following criteria : A/W 3yo+ hcps with male runners aged 3 to 7. These runners should be running at the same class or within 1 class as their last run, at the same trip or within 2 furlongs of their last run. Since the start of 2009, James Fanshawe has had 116 such runners with 26 winners (22.4% SR) yielding 54.8pts profit at an ROI of 47.2%.

Of these 116 runners, the breakdown fitting today's selection is as below...

4 year olds : 12/42 (28.6% SR) for 39.9pts (+94.9% ROI)
Same class as LTO : 12/69 (17.4% SR) for 18.7pts (+27.1% ROI)
Same trip as LTO : 14/60 (23.3% SR) for 11.5pts (+19.1% ROI)
In Class 3 races : 3/13 (23.1% SR) for 3.2pts (+24.4% ROI)
Over today's 1 mile trip : 5/24 (20.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.4% ROI)
Here at Kempton : 20/75 (26.7% SR) for 70.9pts (+94.5% ROI)

It's an admittedly very small sample, but 4 yr olds running at the same class and trip as LTO in a 3yp+ A/W hcp at odds of 2/1 to 6/1 are 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 8.4pts (+92.9% ROI) profit to date!

Jockey George Baker is no mug around this track either..

...with an excellent record totally independent of James Fanshawe that reads 77 winners from 473 (16.3% SR) handicap contests here at Kempton since the start of 2011. These winners have generated level stakes profits of 133.7pts at an ROI of 28.3%, which is very good going indeed.

And what about the horse, Knight Owl?

He was a winner in a 1m handicap at Redcar a couple of months ago and last time out he finished fourth over course and distance. He really caught the eye with the way he finished that day, getting within a length and a half of thewinner despite having far too much work to do late on. He was held up, then couldn't get out and once out, got bumped again before running on strongly. Of the three that beat him that day, only Heisman (0.75 lengths ahead) has reappeared, but that was a winning return over the same trip at Lingfield last Friday.

If the form holds out and Knight Owl keeps out of trouble closer to the pace, then I see no reason why he can't land his first A/W success here at Kempton. So, the call is a 1pt win bet on Knight Owl at 5/1 BOG. I'm on with Betfred, but with Coral and Betfair Sportsbook offering the same price, there's no reason to miss out here. To see the full market...

...click here for the latest betting on the 6.40 Kempton

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