Posts

Geegeez Gold Video #3: Finding In’s from the Reports

Part 3 of this video series takes more of a helicopter view of the day's racing, and shows how Gold's report suite can unearth some lovely 'under the radar' wagers.

Before that, if you've not yet checked out the first two videos, I'd recommend watching those first.

Click here for Video #1: The Success Mindset

Click here for Video #2: Become a Gold Card VIP

And now to today's video...

Gold Reports: What do the numbers really mean?

As of today, a subset of Gold reports now have two extra columns on them. In this post, I'll outline not just the two extra columns but the whole reporting structure and how best to use them.

Gold-en Reporting

There are currently eleven reports in the Gold suite - more will follow in 2016 - and each has its tell-tale pointers for the day's punting.

The first five in the banner above - called a mega menu apparently, and what you see when you hover on the 'Reports' link in the top navigation - all have individual layouts which I'll not go into here. That's for two reasons:

  1. Their layout hasn't changed from the format displayed in the User Guide (click to download)
  2. I don't want this post to be too long!

The remaining six, from Trainer Statistics top right and all the way through the bottom row, all follow a common format, as follows [click to enlarge] :

Geegeez Gold Trainer Statistics Report

Geegeez Gold Trainer Statistics Report

Allow me to share the layout. The report is split into two areas: the 'control' at the top and the 'content' beneath.

The Report Controls

In the top section, users can define how and what they want to see. For instance, if you like to lay horses, you might change the win percentage filter to be from 'Any' to '10%', and look for fancied runners representing trainers with poor form in the context of the relevant period.

The "relevant period" is whichever blue button on the right that is checked - displaying in a lighter colour. In this example, it is Course 5 Year Form.

The other two blue buttons, to the left, allow Gold users to look at either today's racing or, for you evening students, the following day's action.

Oh, and if you're mainly interested in handicap races, you can select the 'HCAP' filter at the top, to show the report output for handicap races only - pretty neat when trying to sift the "always trying" from the "occasionally tuned up to do a job"!

The Meat of the Matter

Once you've set your parameters, click the big grey 'UPDATE' button and the content area will display those entities - trainers in this case - that fit your criteria. On subsequent visits to the report, your settings will be recalled, so if you have a fixed approach you need only set this once. (You're welcome!)

The content area is split into four parts: qualifying entities, record, profit/loss, and statistical significance. It is the last part which is new, but let me quickly touch on each to set the scene.

The example above has been set to display trainers whose course record in the last five years includes at least 20 runners. All other filter parameters have been set to 'Any'. I have then clicked the column heading by which I want to sort: the default is number of wins, and I have changed it to Win %.

We can see at the top of the content area that the picks of the trainers with runners today on this configuration are Nicky Henderson at Doncaster and Warren Greatrex at Bangor.

Looking to the race record next, both have struck at better than one-in-three under these conditions, and both have a better than 50% place record - which might be of interest to placepot players, as well as exacta/trifecta protagonists.

Of course, we need to consider win/place strike rates in the context of profitability (or 'lossability' if you're a layer), which is where the third set of columns come in. As well as win profit and loss we also calculate each way performance, and that data is displayed to the right of the performance record. Here, we can see that both Hendo and 'the great Rex' have rewarded support - both win and each way - historically in this context, as we might expect having sorted on win percentage.

Clicking on any row in the report will reveal inline information relating to that report row's entries. In the example above, Greatrex has two runners at Bangor, Ballyculla and Ma Du Fou. Clicking on a row in the inline display will open a new window for that race. (The aim is to make these reports both useful and usable!)

A Measure of Utility

And so to the 'new stuff'. The final two columns, on the far right, are A/E and IV. These are measures of statistical significance where a score of 1.00 is the norm (i.e. neither significant nor insignificant). The job of A/E is subtly different from that of IV.

Actual vs Expected (A/E)

A/E, or the ratio of Actual versus Expected, attempts to establish the value proposition (profitability in simple terms) of a statistic. The 'actual' and 'expected' are the number of winners.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Eh? Expected number of winners? What's them then? Let me try to explain.

So we're happy the actual number of winners is just that. In the case of Nicky Henderson above, he has had 40 winners from 113 runners. Actual then is 40.

But how do we calculated the 'expected' number of winners? We use a simple formula based on the starting price (you could just as easily use Betfair Starting Price or even tote return if you were sufficiently minded - we've used SP), thus:

Actual number of winners / Sum of ALL [entity] runners' SP's (in percentage terms)

which we know at this stage to be 40/ Sum of ALL [entity] runners' SP's (in percentage terms)

To establish a runner's SP in percentage terms, we do the sum 1/(SP + 1).

For instance, 4/1 SP would be 1/(4 + 1), or 1/5, which is 0.20.

1/4 SP would be 1/(0.25 + 1), or 1/1.25, which is 0.8.

And so on...

The sum of Henderson's 113 runners' starting prices in the last five years, calculated in the above fashion, is 32.078.

Our A/E then is 40 / 32.078 which is 1.247, or 1.25 for cash.

We can then say that Hendo's Donny horses have performed 25% above market expectation in the last five years. Based on a reasonable sample size of 113 runners (all sample sizes for these reports are unacceptably small for categorical pronouncements, but in many cases are perfectly sufficient for wagering chances to be taken), we can say that in general terms his horses look worth following.

***********

Important Note!

Before I go on, I want to make it plain that you absolutely do NOT need to understand how the numbers are arrived at. I am adding this info for geeks and the generally inquisitive.

What you need to know is that better than 1.00 is good, and worse than 1.00 is not good (for backers); and that the further away from 1.00 the better/worse the stat may be.

***********

Impact Value

But wait. What if a sample has been skewed by a 66/1 winner? Or two big-priced horses? The A/E figure might look very attractive, but what are the chances of such an event repeating itself?

Good question, and I'm glad you asked! 😉

We use Impact Value to help reveal skewed datasets. Impact Value is essentially a glorified winners/runners ratio, except that it looks at things in the context of the micro (e.g. Nicky Henderson's 5 year record at Doncaster) versus the macro (e.g. all races at Doncaster in the last five years).

Here's how it goes...

IV = %age of Donny 5 year winners trained by N Henderson / %age of Donny 5 year runners trained by N Henderson

To work out the first bit, we need to know how many winners Hendo trained, and how many winners there were at Donny in the last five years overall. We already know Hendo trained 40 winners in that time, but what we didn't hitherto ken is that there were 1177 winners ridden at Doncaster (flat and jumps).

So, our "%age of Donny 5 year winners trained by N Henderson" is 40 / 1177 = .033985 (expressed as a decimal)

For the second bit, we already know that Henderson ran 113 horses at Doncaster in the period, and I can reveal that there were 12146 total runners in that time.

"%age of Donny 5 year runners trained by N Henderson" is then 113 / 12146 = .009303 (expressed as a decimal)

Impact Value therefore is 0.033985 / 0.009303 = 3.652905, or 3.65 to two decimal places.

T'riffic, Matt, but what does it all mean?

It means that, at Doncaster in the last five years, a horse trained by Nicky Henderson is more than three-and-a-half times more likely to win than the norm.

The Perfect Combination

For backers, then, the ideal world is a reasonable dataset - in this context, more than 50 is fair, more than 100 is good - and both A/E and IV showing some way above 1.00.

For layers, the same principle applies regarding sample size but, of course, you'd be looking for A/E and IV figures as far south of 1.00 as possible (and, naturally, prices you'd be comfortable laying at!).

An example, which Sod's Law dictates will now win, is Chantara Rose. Her trainer, Peter Bowen, has a five year record at Doncaster of 0 from 34. This gives scores of 0.00 twice, so one needs to look at the place record too. He's had just six of those 34 make the frame. In that light, Chantara Rose may have her work cut out and can be laid at 7.8.

Important Final Note

It is really, really, really important to note that the report output is best used as a starting point for your deliberations. Moreover, any horse can win any race, so - obviously - wagering on the basis of report output, or indeed on any basis, should be undertaken as part of a long game with a bank that supports and, where necessary, sustains it.

I know you know this, but I just want to be clear that good data allied to good punting sense is the way forward. Geegeez readers generally, and Gold users in particular, tend to 'get' this more than most punters... which sets us up rather nicely to profit from the sport we love.

Me and all of the team here at Geegeez very much hope this information will enhance the value of the 'bare stats' on the reports, and perhaps enable you to see more (or, just as importantly sometimes, less) value in the content of those data lists.

Matt

p.s. if you've any questions, just pop a comment below and I'll get back to you.

How To Spot Improvers in 60 Seconds or Less…

Today's post introduces a couple of very cool Geegeez Gold reports. Both are designed to help users spot likely improvers, based on trainer behaviour.

Before I introduce the reports, let me outline the reason for them. It's a reason I've touched on before, and I make no apology for revisiting it. Essentially, if you only look at horse form, you are missing a huge part of the puzzle. Especially so when there is very little horse form to go on.

The key to finding value winners is to understand what, if anything, is materially different for a horse today when compared to its last/previous runs; and whether that difference is likely to lead to improvement. Let's look at an example race:

*

crinklecrags1

*

A moderate looking race, and we need to go into the actual form to search for material differences today. Clicking the 'horse' icon in the top menu bar for the race opens all the recent form lines for each horse. Here is that view for the top two horses in the betting.

crinklecrags2

*

The top form line is the race in question here (because we're reviewing it after the event), so it's the past form in the green boxes that is of interest.

Look at the favourite, Separate Shadows. On his previous three runs, he was in handicap company (denoted by 'Hc'), including over today's distance (20 furlongs, or two and a half miles if you prefer) and in today's class. And he'd been beaten each time. There was nothing obviously different today so why should he improve markedly on what he'd achieved thus far?

[Isn't it the definition of insanity to do the same thing repeatedly and expect a different result?]

Now look at Crinkle Crags. He had never previously run in a handicap. That is a hugely material difference. First time in a handicap. I've written about this before. AND... he was stepping up three furlongs in distance. AND... he was reverting to good ground on which he ran well on 19th March last year.

In other words, there were numerous material changes for Crinkle Crags, in terms of the race conditions today when compared with his recent runs.

Crinkle Crags was available at 11/2 in the morning, and was backed in to 5/2 second favourite. He won easily.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Spotting these differences will make you money from your betting. But let's face it, if you had to look through all the form of every runner to unearth these, it would be a lot of work. So what if a report could flag some of the differences for you?

**

Trainer H'cap 1st Run [Code]

reportdropdownIntroducing the rather unsexy-sounding 'Trainer H'cap 1st Run [Code]' report. This report, found towards the bottom of your reports dropdown , shows all horses running in a handicap of that code (flat, hurdles, chase) for the first time today by the trainer's record with such types.

The trainer records can be viewed by one year form, two year form, five year form, and five year course form. The data displayed is specifically for each trainer's runners first time in a handicap of that code.

Crinkle Crags, the example above, was running for Nicky Richards, a trainer who - according to this report - had entered nine runners in a handicap hurdle for the first time in the last year. Five of them had won.

Crinkle Crags made that six out of ten. And then, on Saturday, Un Noble took Richards' record to seven winning handicap first-timers from eleven in the past year.

Un Noble was backed from 6/1 (the price I took) to 11/4, before winning readily. These clues are in the form book, but they're under the trainer record not the horse. Smart punters know this.

Here's an example of today's 'Trainer H'cap 1st Run [Code]' report. (Click on the image to open full size).

*

T_H11

*

In this case, I've filtered for at least '0' win and place profit, and I am looking at the 1 Year Form view. I have also clicked on each trainer's name to highlight their runners today.

As we can see, Anthony Honeyball has run eight horses in handicaps for the first time in the past year. Four of them have won, and another has placed. His four winners were worth a profit of 44.5 units, and included The Geegeez Geegee at 11/1 a few weeks ago!

Miss E Doyle has had two winners and two placed horse in handicaps for the first time in the past year. They were nicely profitable to back both win and each way. And so it goes on.

This report has been in test for a few weeks, due to a couple of issues and the fact it was Cheltenham last week, and it's been finding some great winners. I'm delighted that it's now live and available to all Gold subscribers with immediate effect.

**

The second report focuses on another material difference between today and a horse's last run. That is a change of trainer. It is a fact that in all walks of life, some people are better at what they do than others. That fact extends to the training ranks, of course.

But how do we know which trainers can improve horses they inherit from other yards? And, more pertinently as punters, how do we know which ones are doing it 'under the radar'?

Simple: Geegeez Gold has a report for it!

The report is laid out in the same way as the 1st time handicap report - with views for one year, two year, five year, and five year course form - and it looks like this. (Again, click the image for a full size version)

T_Change1

*

As with the first image, this one is also filtered on one year and a minimum of '0' for win and place profit. But these are not necessarily the best filters to use. In fact, my suggested filters can be found in the updated user manual here.

Trainer habits are as crucial to finding winners as horse form, especially when material differences can be discerned from the last or recent runs. These two new reports will help you slice through the noise to some of the most effective winner-finding differences imaginable. You're welcome! 😉

If you're not yet a Gold subscriber, you can put that right here.

JOIN GEEGEEZ GOLD

If you've not yet sampled the amazing winner-getting tools and tips inside Geegeez Gold, you can take a 30 day £1 trial by clicking this link.

Matt