2025 Grand National Trends
2025 Grand National Betting Trends and Tips - The Randox Health Grand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/4 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.
With 34 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends - apply these to the 2025 Grand National runners and you'll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.
Did you know that since 1978 only three horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while we've only had one winning 7 year-old since 1940........but that was Noble Yeats in 2022.
Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2025 Aintree Grand National - this year run on Saturday 5th April - and sponsored by Randox Health.
Ok, at first glance with now 34 runners (reduced from 40) contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.
The 2025 Grand National is on Saturday 5th April at 4pm.
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Positive Grand National Pointers……………….
- Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
- Note horses wearing a tongue-tie (5 of the last 7)
- Aged between 8-10, but last 9 have all been aged 9 or younger
- Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
- Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
- Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National (won 6 of the last 8)
- Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
- Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
- Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’
Negative Grand National Pointers…………………
- Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923!
- Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
- Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
- Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well
- Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch again in 2019 and Corach Rambler won at Cheltenham before winning the National in 2023.
Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory - including I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024. However, looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point.
If you look back over the winners, we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 25 of the last 33 winners carried 10-13 or less.
Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the Grand National entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip?
29 of the last 33 winners had won over 3m+ in the past, but it's worth noting that the 2021 Minella Times - had only won over 2m6f before heading to National glory.
Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on.
Before Noble Yeats won as a 7 year-old in 2022 - you had to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon!
Also don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager - 26 of the last 33 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out 5 of the last 9 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat. Including I Am Maximus in 2024.
Tongue-Tie: An interesting stat that's building up is that five of the last 7 National winners wore a tongue-tie. Backed up again in 2023 with Corach Rambler sporting this form of headgear or equipment.
We can expect several of the runners to follow suit, but this emerging trend should also help knock out many. While 50% of the last 6 winners wore headgear of some sort.
Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners.
9 of the last 20 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 6 of the last 8 and another in 2024 with the Willie Mullins-trained I Am Maximus.
The only two non-Irish winners came from the Lucinda Russell team in Scotland – so the last British-trained winner was still Many Clouds in 2015.
In short, the Irish or Russell have won ALL of the last eight Nationals.
Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to negotiate with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a massive advantage.
Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase - or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at.
Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear.
It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting.
8 of the last 33 runnings have been won by the favourite (24%), while 19 of the last 33 (58%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)!
The last two runnings have now been won by the favourite (or joint) too, plus three of the last five.
Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings.
In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right.
13 of the last 21 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market. With 6 of the last 7 winners returning 14/1 or shorter. Only 50/1 winner Noble Yeats in 2022 has really saved the bookies since 2017.
Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 34 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran.
This is because the majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day.
While if you want to take this trend further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world.
31 of the last 33 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 25 of the last 33 raced no more than 34 days ago!
In 2021, Minella Times, did defy this trend after winning the National off a 62-day break, while the 2023 winner Corach Rambler ran just 32 days prior, when first in the Ultima Handicap Chase in 2023 at the Cheltenham Festival.
12 months ago, I Am Maximus was last in action 49 days before winning the race – when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, which was won by Nick Rocket this season, who holds an entry and is also trained by a certain Willie Mullins.
Recent Grand National Winners
2024 - I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 - Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 - Minella Times (11/1)
2020 - Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 - Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 - One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 - Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 - Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 - Don't Push It 10/1jfav
2009 - Mon Mome 100/1
2008 - Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 - Silver Birch 33/1
2006 - Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 - Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 - Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 - Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 - Bindaree 20/1
2001 - Red Marauder 33/1
2000 - Papillon 10/1
1999 - Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 - Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 - Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 - Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 - Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 - Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 - VOID RACE
1992 - Party Politics 14/1
1991 - Seagram 12/1
1990 - Mr Frisk 16/1
Aintree Grand National Trends
- 32/33 – Officially rated 137 or higher
- 31/33 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
- 29/33 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
- 29/33 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
- 25/33 – Returned a double-figure price
- 25/33 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
- 25/33 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
- 25/33 – Aged 9 or older
- 23/33 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
- 22/33 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
- 21/33 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
- 21/33 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (7 of the last 8)
- 19/33 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
- 19/33 – Placed favourites
- 18/33 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
- 16/33 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
- 13/33 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
- 13/33 – Trained in Ireland (inc 10 of the last 18 years)
- 9/33 – Won last time out
- 8/33 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
- 7/33 – Ran in a previous Grand National (but 14 of the last 16 were having their debuts)
- 3/33 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
- 2/33 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
- 2/33 - Trained by Willie Mullins
- 2/33 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 7)
- 1/33 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS
Aintree Grand National Facts
- Since 1978, 146 horses have tried to win with more than 11-5 – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
- 19 of the last 25 winners were bred in Ireland
- 5 of the last 7 winners wore a tongue tie
- 22 of the last 30 winners aged between 8-10
- Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
- 14 of the last 16 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
- Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
- 15 of the last 27 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
- No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
- 3 of the last 15 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
- 10 of the last 21 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
- 5 of the last 22 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
- Just two past winners or placed horse from the previous year’s race has won for 38 years (86 have attempted)
- 25 of the last 27 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
- Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)
Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (21 Year)
21/21 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
19/21 – Officially rated 137 or higher
18/21 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
18/21 – Had won over at least 3m previously
18/21 – Ran less than 50 days ago
15/21 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
13/21 – Winners from the top 8 in the betting
13/21 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/21 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/21 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
8/21 – Experienced the National fences before
8/21 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
7/21 – Won their last race
6/21 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
5/21 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (5 of the last 9)
5/21– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/21 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
2/21 – Won by the McCain yard
2/21 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard
2/21 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard
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