Tag Archive for: grand sefton chase tips and trends

Saturday TV Trends Sat TV Trends: 9th Nov 2024

A busy one this Saturday as the ITV cameras head to Wincanton with the Badger Beer Handicap Chase, their feature, plus they are also at Doncaster for the ultra-competitive November Handicap and also take in three Aintree contests as always, here at GeeGeez we've got all the trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races….. 

Doncaster Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkyRacing)

 

1:20 – Livescore Bet Wentworth Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 6f ITV

18/20 – Had at least 6 previous runs that season
18/20 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
18/20 – Had won over 6f before
17/20 – Won from stall 12 or lower
16/20 – Rated 99 or higher
16/20 – Aged 4 or older
13/20 – Had won at least 5 times before in their career
10/20 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/20 – Had won at Doncaster before
5/20 – Ran at York (3) or Newmarket (2) last time out
5/20 – Won last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites (4 of last 11)
3/20 – Winning mare/filly
3/20 – Trained by Richard Hannon
9 of the last 10 winners carried 9-0 or more
Trainer Andrew Balding has won 2 of the last 5 runnings
The last 10 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting

3:10 – Virgin Bet Daily Extra Places Irish EBF Gillies Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

17/19 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
16/19 – Had 3 or more runs that season
15/19 – Had won at least twice before
13/19 – Had never raced at Doncaster before
12/19 – Unplaced last time out
11/19 – Returned 8/1 or bigger in the betting
11/19 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
11/19 – Unplaced favourites
10/19 – Had won over 1m2f before
10/19 – Ran at either Lingfield (3), Goodwood (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/19 – Won by an Irish-bred filly
4/19 – Trained by Ralph Beckett (2 of last 4)
3/19 – Ridden by Jim Crowley
2/19 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/19 – Won last time out
2/19 – Trained by Andrew Balding (2 of last 11)
2/19 - Ridden by David Probert
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 11/1

3.45 – Virgin Bet November Handicap Cl2 1m4f ITV

17/20 – Won between 2 and 4 races before
17/20 – Winners that came from draw 9 or higher
16/20 – Favourites that were unplaced
16/20 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or less
14/20 – Had raced at least 5 times that season
14/20 – Placed last time out
14/20 – Won carrying 9-0 or less in weight
13/20 – Had raced at Doncaster before (6 had won)
12/20 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/20 – Won by a horse aged 3 or 4 years-old
10/20 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/20 – Won last time out
3/20 -Trained by John Gosden (won it 6 times in all)
2/20 – Favourites that won
The average winning SP in the last 20 years is 11/1
Just 2 winning favourites since 1995

Note: The 2023 November Handicap was run on the AW at Newcastle

Wincanton Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

1:09 – BetMGM Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-125) 2m4f ITV

8/8 – Aged between 6-8 years-old
7/8 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey
7/8 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
7/8 – French or Irish bred
7/8 – Favourites placed in the top two
7/8 – Returned 5/1 or shorter
7/8 – Had won over 2m4f (fences)
7/8 – Carried 11-2 or more
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Rated between 120-127
6/8 – Carried 11-4 or more
5/8 – Had run at Wincanton before
4/8 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/8 – Winning favourites

1:45 – BetMGM Richard Barber Memorial Mares’ Handicap Hurdle (GBB Race) Cl2 (4yo+) 2m 5 ½f ITV

16/17 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
15/17 – Didn’t win last time out
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
13/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f before (hurdles)
13/17 – Had won at least twice before (hurdles)
12/17 – Returned 13/2 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Carried 11-0 or less in weight
11/17 – Rated between 119-129
10/17 – Finished 2nd, 3rd or 4th last time out
9/17 – Aged 6 years-old
8/17 – Had raced in the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Irish bred
7/17 – Had run at the track before
5/17 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of the last 13)
2/17 – Trained by Harry Fry (2 of the last 11)
2/17 – Trained by Alan King (2 of the last 3)
2/17 – Ridden by Tom Cannon (2 of the last 3)
7 of the last 10 winners aged 6 or 7

2:23 – Boodles Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 (4yo+) 2m4f ITV

16/17 – Had won no more than twice over fences
16/17 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
14/17 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
14/17 – Irish (9) or French (5) bred
13/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/17 – Had won over 2m3f or further (Chase)
12/17 – Favourites placed
11/17 – Aged 6 or younger
9/17 – Won last time out
9/17 – Winning favourites
7/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
12 of the last 15 winners were aged between 5-7

2:55 - BetMGM Elite Hurdle (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

18/20 – Aged 7 or younger
18/20 – Returned 11/2 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Came from the top three in the betting
15/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
14/20 – Won between 2-5 times before (hurdles)
12/20 – Rated 150 or lower
10/20 – Unplaced last time out
9/20 – Having first run of the season
8/20 – Won last time out
6/20 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob (3 of the last 5)
6/20 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (last 2)
5/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/20 - Trained by Alan King (3 of the last 8)
2/20 – Trained by John Quinn
Harry Cobden has ridden the last two winners
Rubaud (1/2 fav) won the race in 2023

3:30 – 63rd Badger Beer Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) Cl1 3m1f110y ITV

20/21 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
19/21 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
18/21 – Won a 3m or further chase race previously
17/21 – Won by a horse aged between 7 and 9 years-old
17/21 – Placed in the top four in their last race
17/21 – Won at least two chase races previously
16/21 – Raced at the course previously (over fences)
15/21 – Won between 2 and 5 times over fences before
15/21 – Favourites placed
12/21 – Irish-bred horse
12/21 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
11/21 – Raced already that season
11/21 – Raced at either Sandown (4), Wincanton (3) or Cheltenham (4) last time out
9/21 – Priced at double-figures
9/21 – Won their latest race
9/21 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
8/21 – Favourites that won (1 joint, 1 Co)
8/21 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/21 – Ridden by a claiming conditional jockey (including 6 of the last 12 years)
4/21 – Won by the Pipe stable
Blackjack Magic won the race in 2023

 

Aintree Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

 

 

1:30– Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) Cl2 (4yo+) 3m 1/2f ITV

12/12 – Didn’t win last time out
10/12 – Irish (7) or French (3) bred winners
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
9/12 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
9/12 – Unplaced last time out
9/12 – Had won at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
8/12 – Aged between 5-8 years-old
8/12 – Placed favourites
8/12 – Had run at Aintree before (1 winner)
4/12 – Ridden by a claiming jockey
4/12 – Ran at Aintree last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
2/12 – Trained by Charlie Longsdon

2:05 – Boylesports Choose Wisely Handicap Chase Cl3 (4yo+ 0-130) 2m ITV

9/10 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
9/10 – Returned 7/1 or shorter
8/10 – Aged between 6-8
7/10 – Aged 7 or 8
4/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Ridden by Jonathan Burke
2/10 – Trained by Tom George
2/10 – Trained by Henry Oliver
The winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 5/1

2:40 – Boylesports Grand Sefton Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV

17/19 – Had between 1-4 previous chase wins
17/19 – Rated 124 or more
16/19 – Aged 8 or older
15/19 – Had won (chase) over at least 2m4f before
13/19 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
13/19 – Had run at Aintree before (6 over the GN style fences)
12/19 – Carried 10-12 or more
10/19 – Irish bred
9/19 – Returned a double-figure price
9/19 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
5/19 – Winning favourites
3/19 – Went onto run in that season’s Grand National
2/19 – Ridden by Sean Bowen
2/19 – Won last time out
14 of the last 18 winners were aged 8 or 9 years-old
Trainer Paul Nicholls has won 3 of the last 11 runnings
Percussion was runner up in this in 2023

 

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