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Stat of the Day, 23rd May 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

4.45 Yarmouth : Swift Approval @ 11/2 BOG 4th at 11/4 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

8.40 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Greenside @ 7/2 BOG

...in a 10-runner, Class 3, Flat Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £9338 to the winner...

Why?...

This 8 yr old gelding is a former Class 2 winner and comes here off the back of a pretty comfortable 2 lengths win at Windsor 17 days ago under today's jockey Harry Bentley in a similar Class 3, 1m handicap on Good ground to today's contest.

With regards to today's race, his career stats include...

  • 5 wins, 2 places from 14 over a mile (4w, 2pl from 10 on turf)
  • 3 from 8 at 16-30 days since last run
  • 4 from 7 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3 from 6 as favourite
  • 2 wins and a place from 3 in May/June
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 here at Sandown
  • and 1 from 2 on Good ground.

As for the race itself, the race trends for the last 22 runnings (since 1997) of the Whitsun Cup include the following of relevance today...

  • all 22 winners had raced 0-3 times that season prior to the race
  • 17 had a top 4 finish LTO
  • 16 had raced in the previous 30 days
  • 11 were sent off at 4/1 or shorter
  • 10 were rated (OR) 90-94
  • 10 were favourites
  • and 8 came out of stalls 3 or 4

And finally for today, a quick look at how LTO winners trained by Henry Candy fared next time out tells me that those sent off at odds shorter than 6/1 in Flat handicaps are 13 from 40 (32.5% SR) for 14.7pts (+36.7% ROI) since 2015 of these include of note today...

  • in races worth £3k to £10k : 10/32 (31.25%) for 12.44pts (+38.9%)
  • in May/June : 5/10 (50%) for 13.59pts (+135.9%)
  • those who raced/won 15-20 days earlier : 5/10 (50%) for 12.44pts (+124.4%)
  • here at Sandown : 2/5 (40%) for 2.88pts (+57.6%)
  • and those ridden by Harry Bentley are 3 from 3 (100%) for 8.32pts (+277.3%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Greenside @ 7/2 BOG which was available from Sky, Unibet, Hills & BlackType (last two go BOG on raceday) at 5.50pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 8.40 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 16th September 2015

They say that good things come to those who wait and boy, have we been kept waiting over the last week and a half! I don't mind picking horses that get beat despite being logical selections, it's the annoyance of the non-runners that gets my goat.

Anyway, we finally got one onto the track on Tuesday evening and Billy Ranger was worth the wait, as he made fairly light work of the step up to 1m6f to complete a great evening's work for his jockey Ben Curtis.

He won by over two lengths, seemed to have something in reserve and was returned at 5/2, considerably shorter than our advised 4/1 BOG.

Tuesday's piece highlighted the success both Ben and trainer Alan Swinbank had enjoyed at this track, both as individuals and as a team and so it proved: Ben hit a 4-timer including a double for Mr Swinbank. I just hope some of you took the hint and backed the others, like I did.

And so, onto Wednesday and the...

3.55 Sandown :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

A Class 4, one mile handicap for three year olds, where the call is a 3/1 BOG bet on the filly Postbag, trained by Henry Candy and ridden on this occasion by Fergus Sweeney, who has been in good form of late, riding 14 winners from 65 (21.5% SR) in the last month and he's 7 from 23 (30.4% SR) in the last week.

Henry Candy's horses have also been amongst the winners, with a consistent near-20% strike rate throughout the past six months and also more recently.

Sandown has been a happy hunting ground for the Candy handicappers, despite them not coming here as often as you'd expect.

In fact, over the last six seasons (inc this one, of course!), just 55 of the Henry Candy handicappers have graced the turf here at Esher, but 11 of them (20% SR) have been winners producing level stakes profits of 15.1pts at an ROI of 27.5% and whilst 55 is a fairly small sample size for me to lean on for SotD, the breakdown of the runners is very interesting and lends considerable weight to the selection.

With today's race in mind, those 55 runners are...

  1. 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 27.6pts (+76.7% ROI) at trips of 7f to 1m2f
  2. 9/33 (27.3% SR) for 23.9pts (+72.3% ROI) as 3yr olds
  3. 7/27 (25.9% SR) for 21pts (+77.7% ROI) in 3yo only races
  4. 7/25 (28% SR) for 26.4pts (+105.7% ROI) at Class 4
  5. 4/24 (16.7% SR) for 8pts (+33.3% ROI) from female runners
  6. 10/22 (45.5% SR) for 27.8pts (+126.3% ROI) at odds of 2/1 to 5/1
  7. 3/10 (30% SR) for 20.2pts (+202% ROI) when ridden by Fergus Sweeney.

Put together you could also take note that Candy / Sandown hcp / C4 & C5 / 7f to 1m2f / 3yo's at odds of 7/4 to 9/2 are 7/8 (87.5% SR) for 23.4pts (+292.3% ROI) with Fergus Sweeney having a 2 from 2 record that has yielded 7.86pts (+392.8% ROI)

3/1 BOG is widely available about Postbag, but I've gone with Coral for the insurance of a refund for a defeat by a head or less, but to see your preferred bookies' prices...

 ...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Sandown

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Newmarket Trainer Stats

Candy

Look For Candy 3 Year-olds At HQ

Ahead of this week’s three-day Newmarket Cambridgeshire Meeting, Andy Newton’s got FIVE trainers to look out for that do particularly well at the track and three you might want to be a bit wary of. Read more

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 14th August 2013

It was a bitter-sweet day for me yesterday, as the short-priced double I suggested came in at 5/2 (hopefully, those of you still hankering after the Daily Dabble were on it!), but the SotD pick, Mixed Message was beaten.

She ran well enough to finish 3rd at 9/2, missing out by a length or so, but she stayed on well at the end of the race and I can't help wondering if the result might have different had she been asked for an effort a little earlier than she was.

All of which is supposition, of course and takes us nowhere. So, I'm heading South today to look at another 3yr old filly who runs in the...

4.30 Salisbury

And the horse in question is Silk Route, who is making her handicap debut today after three maiden runs that have shown promise and improvement, despite not troubling the record books. A sixth over 1m2f on debut was followed by a 5th place then a 4th place, both over 1m4f, giving her a handicap mark of 67 on debut, a workable figure once her allowances are factored in.

She is trained by Henry Candy and he has an excellent record with handicap debutants at the top end of the market. In the last three seasons, his record with horses making their handicap debut and priced at 6/1 or under is better than 1 in 3. He has saddled up 6 such winners from 17 for a strike rate of 35.3% and level stakes profits of 11.15pts at Betfair SP (the nearest assimilation to BOG prices we can realistically check). That profit is the equivalent of a 65.6% return on your money.

Despite showing some promise in her maiden events, she hasn't quite got it right and has run greenly on occasions and looks like she had troubling settling in those races. However, without deriding the efforts of her pilots in the past, I feel that the booking of Richard Hughes today is a signficant one. Richard's in great nick at the moment (running at a steady 25% strike rate of late) and I'd expect him to both get a bit more out of the horse whilst also being able to get her settled.

She's a sister to Cravat, who was a winner in better contests than this one and I think we've an excellent chance to register our first winner of the winner with a 1pt win bet on Silk Route at 9/2 BOG with BetVictor. This price isn't exclusive to them and is pretty much widely available. So, as ever, I heartily recommend that you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.30 Salisbury

***Don't forget, we offer a full racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.***

Trainer Stats: 26th June 2013

HENRY CANDY

Henry Candy in flying form

Andy Newton’s got six more flat yards that are in cracking form to look out for this week…… Read more

Trainer Stats: 23rd April 2012

MJWith the new flat season hotting up Andy Newton’s got six trainers that have got their horses in tip-top order...... Read more

Trainer Stats: 26th July 2012

Hannon's Horses Are In Flying Form

With Glorious Goodwood just around the corner, this week Andy Newton gives you 7 flat trainers that are in-form... Read more

Sat TV Trends: 2nd June 2012

Pressure On Aidan To Land The Derby

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Sat TV Trends: 19th May 2012

All Eyes On Frankel In The Lockinge

Frankel is back out in the Lockinge this Saturday, but are the trends in his favour? Read more

Trainer Trends 8th Sept

Richard Hannon

Hannon's Team Are In Flying Form

With the jumping fixtures extremely thin on the ground over the next few weeks Andy Newton concentrates on the flat handlers that are hot as we enter the final few months of the turf season. Plus he's got two trainers whose runners are not quite running as well as normal.... Read more

Trainer Trends 18th Aug

Michael Bell

In-form Michael Bell

Plenty of hot trainers did the business for us last week, including Roger Charlton and Michael Bell who both popped up with 16/1 winners – but who’s on the list to follow this week?
  Read more