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Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th March 2019

Saturday's pick was...

2.25 Uttoxeter : Captain Cattistock @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Led until not fluent 13th, led next, blundered and headed 4 out, wandering after 2 out, no impression on winner last, lost 2nd towards finish)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Darlyn 7/2 BOG

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Hurdle for 4yo+ over 1m7½f on Soft worth £4094 to the winner... 

Why?

This 6yr old mare has finished 114 in her last three runs over the space of 65 days, but heads here having been rested for the last 8 weeks. The middle run of that sequence was her only previous visit to this track, resulting in a Class 3 course and distance success under today's jockey James Davies, so conditions shouldn't be totally alien to her.

Trainer Henry Oliver's horse have won 7 of 35 (20% SR) for 7.7pts (+22% ROI) in the past 30 days, so they're in good nick and those numbers include...

  • 5/28 (17.9%) for 12.23pts (+43.7%) in handicaps
  • 4/19 (21.1%) for 17.03pts (+89.7%) over hurdles
  • 6/16 (37.5%) for 1.95pts (+12.2%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • and 2/8 (25%) for 19.79pts (+247.4%) on soft/heavy ground

Overall, Henry's record here at Southwell in handicap hurdle contests stands at 5 wins from 16 (31.25% SR) for 2.9pts (+18.1% ROI), from which...

  • 5-6 yr olds are 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • those racing at 1m7.5f/2m are also 4/9 (44.4%) for 8.65pts (+95%)
  • Class 4 runners are 3/9 (33.3%) for 3.98pts (+44.2%)
  • those ridden by James Davies are 2/6 (33.3%) for 1.04pts (+17.4%)
  • and those sent off at odds of 6/4 to 11/2 are an impressive 4 from 4 (100%) for 13.66pts (+341.5%)

More generally, Henry's record in handicap hurdle races on soft or worse ground stands at 31/109 (28.4% SR) for 63.7pts (+58.4% ROI) since 2014 with those racing over trips shorter than 2m3f winning 21 of 62 (33.9%) for 28.7pts (+46.2%), whilst previous course and distance winners are 3 from 4 (75%) for 7.56pts (+188.9%).

And since 2013, the yard's record in NH handicaps from horses with just one run in the previous 90 days is 30 from 146 (20.6% SR) for 49.6pts (+34% ROI), including...

  • 4-8 yr olds : 27/121 (22.3%) for 60.2pts (+49.7%)
  • at trips shorter than 2m5f : 28/112 (25%) for 74.7pts (+66.7%)
  • those unplaced LTO are 22/110 (20%) for 56.9pts (+51.7%)
  • at Class 4 : 18/65 (27.7%) for 50.5pts (+77.8%)
  • on Soft ground : 10/44 (22.7%) for 16.2pts (+36.9%)
  • females : 9/16 (31.6%) for 25.8pts (+135.5%)

...from which...4-8 yr olds at trips shorter than 2m5f and were unplaced LTO = 20/74 (27%) for 83pts (+112.2% ROI)

And finally, back to the horse herself : she's by Authorized, whose 4-6 yr old offspring are 17/86 (19.8% SR) for 23.3pts (+27.1% ROI) in UK handicap hurdle races on soft ground or worse since 2014, with those sent off shorter than 9/1 winning 15 of 53 (28.3% SR) for 24.4pts (+46.1% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Darlyn 7/2 BOG which was widely available at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG (=3/1 after R4) WON at 3/1 (Held up and behind, going well when not clear run briefly over 1f out, barged way through and headway soon after, led inside final furlong, soon clear, winning easily by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m5f on Good To Soft, worth £4874 to the winner...

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding wasn't at his best when finishing fourth at Bangor last time out, but a 73-day rest and a return to Ayr might be just the ticket for him to get back to winning a ways on a track where he has 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes (all over fences, wearing cheekpieces) from his four previous visits.

His trainer, Henry Oliver, is 10 from 51 (19.6% SR) for 13.08pts (+25.7% ROI) profit from Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 since the start of 2017, which is a good sign and these include of relevance/note today...

  • males at 10/50 (20%) for 14.08pts (+28.2%)
  • off a mark of 99-111 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 32.14pts (+133.9%)
  • Jan-April : 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.42pts (+58.3%)
  • 3rd to 5th LTO : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.4%)
  • previous course winners are 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

Henry also seems to do well when not overworking his charges, as since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers with just 1 run in the previous 90 days are 28 from 138 (20.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+36.3% ROI) profit, with the following angles at play today...

  • those competing for less than £8,000 are 26/114 (22.8%) for 57.22pts (+50.2%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m6f : 25/105 (23.8%) for 73.3pts (+69.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 48.4pts (+49.9%)
  • Nov-March : 22/88 925%) for 67.3pts (+76.4%)
  • chasers are 14/71 (19.7%) for 47.4pts (+66.8%)
  • 4th to 7th LTO : 14/69 (20.3%) for 46.7pts (+67.6%)
  • Class 4 : 16/60 (26.7%) for 48.1pts (+80.1%)
  • OR of 94-110 : 19/58 (32.8%) for 67.4pts (+116.2%)
  • 70-90 days since last run : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.7pts (+54.4%)
  • and once again, here at Ayr = 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...AND...from the above... Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 = 14/28 (50% SR) for 60.92pts (+217.6% ROI), including...

  • Class 4 : 12/21 (57.1%) for 57pts (+271.4%)
  • 4th-7th LTO : 8/16 (50%) for 33.05pts (+206.6%)
  • chasers : 7/12 (58.3%) for 41.15pts (+342.9%)
  • 70-90 dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 10.58pts (+176.3%)
  • and almost inevitably : Ayr @ 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...leading to...Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 + Class 4 chasers + 4th-7th LTO + 2017-19 = 4/4 (100% SR) for 26.52pts (+663% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2019

Saturday's Pick was...

5.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 4/1 BOG (=3/1 after R4) WON at 3/1 (Held up and behind, going well when not clear run briefly over 1f out, barged way through and headway soon after, led inside final furlong, soon clear, winning easily by 4 lengths)

Monday's pick runs in the...

3.55 Ayr :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Handicap Chase over 2m5f on Good To Soft, worth £4874 to the winner...

Why?

This 11 yr old gelding wasn't at his best when finishing fourth at Bangor last time out, but a 73-day rest and a return to Ayr might be just the ticket for him to get back to winning a ways on a track where he has 2 wins and 2 runner-up finishes (all over fences, wearing cheekpieces) from his four previous visits.

His trainer, Henry Oliver, is 10 from 51 (19.6% SR) for 13.08pts (+25.7% ROI) profit from Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 since the start of 2017, which is a good sign and these include of relevance/note today...

  • males at 10/50 (20%) for 14.08pts (+28.2%)
  • off a mark of 99-111 : 8/24 (33.3%) for 32.14pts (+133.9%)
  • Jan-April : 6/23 (26.1%) for 13.42pts (+58.3%)
  • 3rd to 5th LTO : 7/19 (36.8%) for 32pts (+168.4%)
  • previous course winners are 3/13 (23.1%) for 9.86pts (+75.8%)
  • and here at Ayr : 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

Henry also seems to do well when not overworking his charges, as since the start of 2013, his NH handicappers with just 1 run in the previous 90 days are 28 from 138 (20.3% SR) for 50.1pts (+36.3% ROI) profit, with the following angles at play today...

  • those competing for less than £8,000 are 26/114 (22.8%) for 57.22pts (+50.2%)
  • at trips of 2m to 2m6f : 25/105 (23.8%) for 73.3pts (+69.8%)
  • at odds of 5/4 to 10/1 : 25/97 (25.8%) for 48.4pts (+49.9%)
  • Nov-March : 22/88 925%) for 67.3pts (+76.4%)
  • chasers are 14/71 (19.7%) for 47.4pts (+66.8%)
  • 4th to 7th LTO : 14/69 (20.3%) for 46.7pts (+67.6%)
  • Class 4 : 16/60 (26.7%) for 48.1pts (+80.1%)
  • OR of 94-110 : 19/58 (32.8%) for 67.4pts (+116.2%)
  • 70-90 days since last run : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.7pts (+54.4%)
  • and once again, here at Ayr = 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...AND...from the above... Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 = 14/28 (50% SR) for 60.92pts (+217.6% ROI), including...

  • Class 4 : 12/21 (57.1%) for 57pts (+271.4%)
  • 4th-7th LTO : 8/16 (50%) for 33.05pts (+206.6%)
  • chasers : 7/12 (58.3%) for 41.15pts (+342.9%)
  • 70-90 dslr : 3/6 (50%) for 10.58pts (+176.3%)
  • and almost inevitably : Ayr @ 1/1 (100%) for 2.76pts (+276%)

...leading to...Sub-£8k + 2m-2m6f + 5/4 to 10/1 + Oct-April + OR 94-110 + Class 4 chasers + 4th-7th LTO + 2017-19 = 4/4 (100% SR) for 26.52pts (+663% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Casual Cavalier 7/2 BOG which was available from Betfair, Paddy Power & SkyBet at 6.25pm on Sunday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.55 Ayr

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

NH Season Fast Starters

As I’ve alluded to in previous articles I would consider myself more of a flat game specialist, writes Jon Shenton.  However, with the onset of winter and the monumental battle of wills around when to put the heating on, perhaps you could argue that my timing is less than impeccable in terms of becoming a contributor to Geegeez.

Data are data, though – and in some ways the fact that I’m not invested so much in the history, the characters and the equine stars of the show arguably means I can be more objective about what I’m looking at.  In other words, the data can speak for themselves.  Every day is a school day and I’m hopeful that I can build some profitable and interesting angles to keep things ticking over during the cold, dark months when I’m wrapped in a blanket because I’m too tight to fire up the boiler!

In this article, I will try to unearth a bit of early season value with regard to the winter game.  That said, and as a starter concession, I still can’t work out officially when the National Hunt season starts.

As ever a reminder that analysing past performance is no guarantee of future spoils; but, as a minimum, it should help in generating ideas and approaches for evolve our knowledge and therefore our betting skill.

Let’s start with a broad-brush approach evaluating National Hunt runners by trainer during the months of October and November.  This time all the data have been crunched using the Query Tool on this very site, any runners on or after 7th October 2018 are not included.

All National Hunt runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter by trainer in October and November from 2012 onwards

The table above displays trainers ordered by the best return on investment (ROI) at starting price (SP).  Encouragingly, there are nine of them returning over 10% without diving any deeper.

Top of the tree and first cab off the rank is Henry Oliver, the Worcestershire-based trainer who is returning a very substantial 61% over the period in question: it’s stating the completely obvious but that’s worth more than a quick glance.   First stop is to check the context of this apparent seasonal bounty, it may be that Mr Oliver is an all year-round cash cow.

All Henry Oliver National Hunt runners with an SP of 20/1 or less from 2012 onwards

If you backed every Oliver NH runner from January 2012 you would have a neat 5% return to SP with 90 winners from 534 bets.  Not quite ‘cash cow’ status but there are certainly worse ways to put your money on the line.  The below graph shows how the 26.7 points of profit is split by month.

Monthly P&L to a £1 level stake for all National Hunt runners at 20/1 or shorter from the Henry Oliver stable from 2012 onwards

 

First thing to note is that, like a number of NH trainers, the summer months are fallow for Oliver’s charges.  December aside, Oliver is operating at a profitable level over the winter months and I wouldn’t put you off tracking all stable runners over the core NH season so certainly a trainer to follow.

However, we started searching for early season value and clearly November sticks out like Brian Blessed playing hide and seek, returning 94% profit to ROI.  The 20% October ROI is worth noting, too.

Trying to dive deeper into those autumnal runners, evaluating variables such as obstacle type, race class, horse age or date of recent run doesn’t generate anything of real material value.   If you’re nit-picking, Oliver’s horses are 0/11 for runs greater in distance than 2m 6f in those months and 5/58 overall, something to keep an eye on.

The last metaphoric hurdle is to understand the consistency aspect of the performance.

The table below shows Oliver’s October/November runs by year.  Maybe a little streaky but scintillating performance in 2013, 2015, and in particular 2017, with a bit of a washout in 2016.  Only one losing year though (excluding 2018 thus far for hopefully obvious reasons) means that this is solid enough to go on the list!

All Henry Oliver National Hunt Oct/Nov runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards

Suggestion: Back all Henry Oliver runners in October/November at 20/1 or less

 

Your first 30 days for just £1

The second luminary of the list is Fergal O’Brien, who quite simply has the best (in my opinion) and most entertaining twitter profile of all of the trainers, well worth a follow (@FOBracing) if you’re active on that medium. The stable contains relative household names such as Chase The Spud, Cap Soleil, and their first Grade 1 winner Poetic Rhythm to name but three of them.

There is no doubt the yard has impressive credentials and performance has been very strong over recent years.  If you backed every single stable runner at SP from January 2012 you’d walk away with 3.7% more cash than you invested.

I think there are angles aplenty when it comes to O’Brien, most of which are for another day but with specific reference to the early season view there are a couple of options to home in on for profit. The first is National Hunt race code

All Fergal O’Brien Oct/Nov National Hunt runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards by race type

All profitable, which is nice. The pertinent angle for me though is his performance in bumpers, where O’Brien has nearly double the volume of winners than expected with a 186% return to boot.  Yes, the sample size is small, but within the data there are ten winners from horses making their debut (from 22), indicating that the yard gears up to get quality horses (or horses ready to win) out on the track in the months of October and November. Generally speaking, the later in October, the better as the record is 1/11 from the 1st-16th.

Profit in relation to hurdles and fences is quite small over those two months; however, if we zoom in a little closer there is a quite telling split in monthly performance, again it looks like the stable is peaking in November.

All Fergal O’Brien Oct/Nov Hurdle & Chase runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards by race type

It’s not an absolute rule, and certainly doesn’t mean that a horse on the track on the 1st November is in different shape to one on 31st October, but it does indicate generally that as we start heading towards the big November Cheltenham meeting, the O’Brien yard picks up pace and is a definite one to follow closely.

Suggestion 1: Back all O’Brien NHF runners in late October/November at less than 20/1 SP

Suggestion 2: Back all O’Brien Chase and Hurdle runners in November at less than 20/1 SP

 

Moving to the trainer in the bronze medal position in the opening table, Harry Whittington: the Lambourn-based outfit is growing rapidly, currently housing nearly 50 horses with an increasing number of runners per year. I like these yards that are growing, it often means they’re on an upwards trajectory and are worth closer review.

First port of call is checking the race type in the table below, a small number of runners but the bumper aspect doesn’t look entirely compelling so I’m happy enough to exclude and keep a watching brief.

All Harry Whittington Oct/Nov National Hunt runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards by race type

Again, evaluating the profile of Whittington’s hurdle and chase runners across the whole year gives an interesting picture in terms of P&L.  The graph below shows that very same P&L by month to a £1 level stake, it’s fair to say that Q4 looks quite compelling – another yard that’s fast out of the blocks for the new season.

Monthly P&L to a £1 level stake for all National Hunt runners at 20/1 or less from the Harry Whittington stable from 2012 onwards

 

If we analyse the October to December runs in terms of race class as a differentiator there is a further shard of light to assist profitable punting.

All Harry Whittington Oct-Dec Hurdle and Chase runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards by race class

 

The basement C5 races are easy enough to ignore in punting terms, most of them crossing over with the NHF group we already discounted; the Class 1 & 2 are less straightforward, particularly if the yard’s expansion means they may be knocking on the door of the higher echelons of the racing ladder. Here and now I’d be inclined to back the C3 & C4 horses and track the C1/2 runners for signs of improvement or add to a shortlist to back on their relative merits.

Suggestion: Back all Harry Whittington’s October, November and December Chase/Hurdle runners at less than 20/1 in Class 3 or 4 races.

 

The final trainer I’m going to run through from the initial table is Venetia Williams, largely due to her volume of runners: to deliver a 17% ROI across 440 runners in the months of October/November from 2012 onwards is impressive and merits closer scrutiny.  That’s not to say all of the other trainers are not worthy of further investigation and I’d definitely be inclined to sharpen the focus on Messrs Pauling and Keighley in particular.  Have a play on QT yourself and maybe post anything of interest (or otherwise) in the comments below.

Returning to Venetia Williams, the Grand National-winning trainer has a profitable record during the months in question, but the below table tells a stark tale.  Clearly, Williams has a knack for getting her cavalry of chasers ready early in the season

All Venetia Williams Oct/Nov National Hunt runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards by race type

 

Again, if we look specifically at the month, the record in November is much stronger than that of October.

Perusing the “Venetia” page at her website www.venetiawilliams.com the following sentence caught my eye:

“Since then Venetia's career has flourished. Never one to expose her horses to the high risk of summer ground, each year Venetia can be seen with the big Saturday winners during the core NH season”

There is a common belief that Williams’ runners love soft turf, and the statement above also seems to indicate a preference to avoiding the risks associated with summer ground.  On Geegeez we like facts to back up a theory, so the table below shows Venetia’s chase runners in November by official going.

All Venetia Williams Chase runners in November with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards by official going

 

While there is confirmation that Williams’ runners prefer a softer surface, it is worth noting that the stereotyped ‘hock deep’ runner from this yard fares less well than those encountering merely ‘winter ground’, i.e. good to soft or soft.

There is one mild concern with the overall angle though, namely 2017 performance, showing a loss of 28%, this is also on the back of a moderate 2016.  It could be this angle has run its natural course, albeit I will be adding it to my own armoury this November.  Williams had a very quiet spell last winter, alluding to a potential problem in the yard so I’m just about happy enough to strike a line through 2017.  This is one for keen observation though.

All Venetia Williams Chase runners with an SP of 20/1 or shorter from 2012 onwards on good to soft, soft or heavy ground by year

Oh, and incidentally the Saturday assertion in the quoted sentence does have a degree of credence too.

Suggestion: Back all Venetia Williams November Chasers on Good to soft or softer ground with a 20/1 or less SP (with caution)

- Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 27th January 2018

Friday's Result :

12.40 Lingfield : Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 4/5 Tracked leading pair, 2nd over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, stayed on same pace inside final furlong, no chance with winner...

Next up is Saturday's...

4.00 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Major Hindrance @ 10/3 BOG

A Class 4, 5yo+ Handicap Chase over 2m4f on Heavy ground worth £4,614 to the winner...

Why?

Since the start of 2014, Henry Oliver's Class 2 to 5 handicap chasers are 26 from 135 (19.3% SR) for profits of 60.1pts at an ROI of 44.5%, from which...

  • those last seen 11-45 days earlier are 23/100 (23%) for 76.2pts (+76.2%)
  • in the November to February period : 20/87 (23%) for 70.1pts (+80.5%)
  • and from Nov-Feb, 11-45 dslr = 18/75 (24%) for 69.7pts (+93%), with today's jockey Dave Crosse riding 3 winners (and a placer!) from 4 (75% SR) for 34.7pts (+867.3% ROI).

Fitting the above conditions is this 8 yr old gelding who has 2 wins and a place from his last five efforts, including a win LTO at Exeter 26 days ago over 2m3f on similarly heavy ground to today. In fact, based on today's contest, he should be well suited, as he has...

  • a win and two places from five heavy ground runs
  • won at both 2m3f and 2m5.5f
  • two wins at Class 4
  • won 2 of his 4 starts in the Jan-March opening quarter
  • a win and a place from the two previous runs under Dave Crosse

He's by Kris Krin, whose UK handicap jumpers running on soft ground or worse are 11/62 (17.7% SR) for 9.61pts (+15.5% ROI) since the start of 2013, from which...

  • on heavy ground : 6/30 (20%) for 9.86pts (+32.9%)
  • chasers on heavy : 5/22 (22.7%) for 10pts (+45.5%)
  • Class 4 chasers on heavy : 5/16 (31.25%) for 16pts (+100%)
  • Class 4 chasers over 2m3f to 3m1f on heavy : 5/10 950%) for 2pts (+220%)
  • and Class 4 chasers over 2m3f to 3m1f on heavy who also won LTO : 2/3 (66.6%) for 11.8pts (+393.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Major Hindrance @ 10/3 BOG which was available from SkyBet & BetVictor at 5.50pm on Friday, whilst those with an unrestricted Bet365 account can get 7/2 BOG. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2015

Thursday's Result :

2.50 Exeter : Tolkeins Tango @ 5/2 BOG PU at 5/2 (Chased leaders, weakened before 5 out, behind when pulled up before 3 out)

Friday's selection runs in the...

1.20 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

This 5yr old gelding has proven to useful and versatile in his doszen outings to date, winning one of his two bumpers and finishing as runner-up in the other. He ten raced 8 times over hurdles winning once and making the frame on four other occasions, before a recent switch to the larger obstacles.

He has finished second in both chases starts to date, both at this Class 3 level and over 2m on soft ground, notably staying on well last time out when getting within 1.75 lengths of the in-form Sir Valentino 16 days ago. The latter has since stepped up to Class 2 and won again as recently as Wednesday, suggesting Ozzy Thomas' effort last time was a decent one.

Other than this collateral form, he has the benefit of being trained by Henry Oliver, one of that rare breed of trainers who is profitable to follow blindly after more than 250 runners. More precisely, 277 runners to date, from which there has already been 44 winners (15.9% SR) and profits of 106.7pts at an ROI of 38.5% from level stakes betting : impressive stuff!

There are, however, certain angles to explore that would maximise return from a smaller number of bets, for example...

  • male runners are 40/247 (16.2% SR) for 121.3pts (+49.1% ROI)
  • those running at 2m to 2m 4.5f are 43/226 (19% SR) for 153.5pts (+67.9% ROI)
  • handicappers are 41/204 (20.1% SR) for 81.6pts (+40% ROI)
  • those racing 16 to 45 days since their last run are 30/151 (19% SR) for 141.7pts (+93.9% ROI)

And a simple to follow Henry Oliver micro-system? Go on then, it's almost Christmas! 😀

Henry Oliver's male handicappers racing over 2 miles to 2m 4.5f, 11 to 45 days since their last outing are 29/107 (27.1% SR) for 117.3pts (+109.6% ROI). Today's jockey Jaems Davies is 11/46 (23.9% SR) for 67.6pts (+37% ROI) from those 107 runners.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 10.10pm?

A 1pt win bet on Ozzy Thomas @ 3/1 BOG with any one of at least eight firms, so to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.20 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 17th January 2015

Stonefield Flyer was a comfortable winner by the best part of four lengths yesterday, as once again Joe Fanning proved how good he is at reading the pace of a race.

It also meant that, for only the second time since inception, that we've now hit five winners on the bounce and thanks to Newcastle's abandonment earlier this week, we're now unbeaten in a whole week.

My only minor gripe about yesterday was the price taken and then the price received. I took 9/4 BOG at 7.40am, but by the time I came to update the blog, a non-runner has knocked me back to 63/40 and the best price available was 5/4, which is now the price we'll declare at.

Mind you, we still made 1.25pts on a day where our runner was a 4/5 winner and as you all know, I'm more than happy to take over 156% of SP every day!

Although we had an easy win on the sand yesterday, my recent rich vein of form has come from jumps racing in testing conditions, so we're now heading to the South West for a crack at the...

3.25 Taunton:

Which is a Class 3 handicap chase over 2 miles plus a half furlong on heavy ground and my selection is the 6yr old gelding Whispering Harry, who I've just backed at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor.

His trainer is Henry Oliver...

...who might not be a familiar name to some of you, but he's one that I look out for, not that he has too many runners! He had his first ever runner in February 2013 and has been profitable to follow since.

In his short 23 month training career so far, he has already had 24 winners from 181 runners for a strike rate of 13.3% for level stakes profits of 62.4pts at an ROI of 34.5%. In handicap contests, he fares even better, with 22 winners from 121 (18.2% SR) for 39.6pts (+32.7% ROI).

Henry's yard is just South of Worcester, an area notorious for flooding in recent years and I'm guessing that his horses are trained in muddy conditions, as his record in handicaps on soft/heavy ground are 10 winners from 42 (23.8% SR) for 14.8pts (+35.2% ROI) with a fantastic 6/12 (50% SR) for 12.6pts (+104.7% ROI) on heavy ground.

When his handicappers have been sent off in the narrow 2/1 to 4/1 banding, they have a 40% strike rate (14/35) with the resultant 22.1pts profit equating to 63.2% of stakes. These runners are 5/7 (71.4% SR) for 10.7pts (+152.9% ROI) on heavy.

James Davies takes the ride today...

Another who is hardly a household name, but he does ride well on the Oliver string, as a 5/22 (22.7% SR) for 69.1pts (+314% ROI) record will testify. In handicaps, he's 4/19 (21.1% SR) for 15.1pts (+79.2% ROI) and in handicap chases, it's 3/12 (25% SR) for 17.5pts (+146% ROI).

The Davies / Oliver / Hcp Chase / Heavy ground combo is 3/9 (33.33% SR) for 20.5pts (+227.8% ROI).

Whispering Harry loves the mud...

...winning three of his seven starts over obstacles on heavy ground so far, with the other four runs resulting in a runner-up finish and three third places!

Since the start of 2011 in UK heavy ground handicaps, horses with 2 or more wins on heavy ground from 10 or fewer efforts on heavy have 104 wins from 695 races, with the 15% strike rate generating level stakes profits of 139.8pts at an ROI of 20.1%.

In handicap chases, the figures become 74/438 (16.9% SR) for 88.2pts, also at an ROI of 201.1% and a 2/7 (28.6% SR) record here at Taunton producing 4.8pts at 68.6% ROI.

Conditions in general look ideal for him today...

We already know from above that the heavy going will suit his style, he has won each of his last three races at today's trip. He also has a 131 record when ridden by James Davies, all over fences where he is 4131 and his figures at this Class 3 level read 3131. Whispering Harry has won three from six at odds of below 6/1 and is clearly in good nick.

I do like the look of him here and I'm sure he's the one to beat, so why not join me in placing a 1pt win bet on Whispering Harry at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor? You can also get the same price from Hills or if you prefer to do your own research, you can...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.25 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.