Hexham, Kempton, Lingfield and Warwick come under the watchful eye of Mal Boyle today as he assesses the action scheduled for...
General stats: Decent ratios are hard to come by at Hexham but Hobb’s Dream might be worth a saver if given the green light to contest the scheduled 12.50 event. Neil Mulholland is a very rare raider and the eight-year-old will be attempting to maintain Neil’s one hundred per cent record at the track by securing his second winner!
Juvenile maiden hurdle due to be contested at 12.40: Six of the seven favourites have finished in the frame via six renewals (three winners), whilst the biggest priced gold medallist to date was returned at 7/1.
Class 5 handicap hurdle event over two and a half miles scheduled for 2.40: Six of the eight winners have carried weights of 11-1 or less.
General stats: Marco Botti has his runners in fine form just now and the trainer boasts over twenty-two points of level stake profits at Kempton to date.
General stats: Tobago (3.00) is saddled by Lady Herries (only runner this week at the time of writing) who boasts a 26% strike rate at Lingfield during the last five years.
12.30: Favourites have secured five of the last nine renewals, whilst the biggest priced winner was sent off at just 11/2 during the period.
1.00: Ten winners during the last eleven year have won at odds of 13/2 or less (four successful favourites), whilst the last ten winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones.
1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Three of the five winners to date were returned at 33/1--33/1--25/1 whilst eleven of the fifteen available each way/toteplacepot positions have been secured by horses starting at 7/1 or more.
General stats: Jennie Candlish and Lucy Wadham both boast 2/6 stats whilst showing a slight LSP profit at Warwick thus far.
Nineteen furlong handicap hurdle event scheduled for12.50: Five and six-year-olds have dominated this event during the last eleven years, five-year-olds leading 5-4 during the period with vintage representatives coming to this year’s gig on a four timer.
Twenty one furlong novice hurdle event due to be contests at 1.50: Henry Daly saddled back-to-back winners of this race in 2006/2007, whereby Lord Grantham (Henry’s only option at the weekend) would be of interest if the five-year-old was offered the green light. Perhaps of particular interest, given the fact that five-year-olds have secured three of the last four contests.
National Hunt novice hurdle over two miles scheduled for 2.50: Four-year-olds have secured seven of the last eight renewals and a 12/1 chance was the shortest priced vintage representative in the year that four-year-olds ‘missed out’. Out of interest, an 18/1 four-year-old finished third that year (2010).
Three and a quarter-mile chase scheduled for 3.20: Six favourites have prevailed during the eleven years whilst the same number of gold medallists carried weights of 11-0 or more, as have ten of the last fifteen horses to have secured toteplacepot positions.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/wellideclare5.png240980Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/geegeez_banner_new_300x100.pngChris Worrall2012-11-21 09:25:152012-11-21 09:23:10Well I Declare: 21st November
It's the busiest day of the week with racing at Chepstow, Hexham, Newmarket and York and it's not the easiest of days to find any winners.
Thankfully Mal Boyle has prepared some notes to guide us through..
General stats: Colin Tizzard secured a 9/2 double on last year’s card.
Juvenile hurdle scheduled for 1.55: Paul Nicholls (potentially represented by Sametegal and Far West on this occasion) has saddled three of the last seven winners. Alan King (only option at the time of writing was Secret Edge) has won the race twice in the last six years by two of his best juvenile hurdlers during the period, namely Katchit and Franchoek. Alan’s only possible runner was Handazen earlier in the week.
Class 2 handicap hurdle due to be contested at 3.40: Hinterland was the only runner entered by Paul Nicholls at the five-day stage, the trainer having saddled four winners of this event during the last decade. Six renewals had slipped by without a successful market leader being returned before last year’s 13/8 market leader obliged.
Class 3 handicap hurdle scheduled for 4.10: The last nine winners have carried weights of 11-3 or less whilst six contests have slipped by without a winning favourite being recorded. Evan Williams and Philip Hobbs have both won two renewals during the last five years.
Three mile Class 2 handicap chase scheduled for 4.45: The last eight winners have carried 10-10 or less to victory, during which time six eight-year-olds have gained the spoils.
Bumper event scheduled for 5.20: Four-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals during which time, both Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have saddled two winners.
General stats: John Quinn’s ratio is 7/19 at Hexham, whilst Sue Smith saddled a 13/2 double at the corresponding fixture twelve months ago.
Class 4 novice hurdle event for mares scheduled for 2.45: Four of the last five winners have scored at odds of 85/40 or less, stats which include two successful market leaders. Four-year-olds have won five of the last eight contests.
Class 4 handicap chase over two and a half miles due to be contested at 3.20: Six-year-olds have won three of the last four contests, whilst five renewals have slipped past with a successful market leader being recorded.
Maiden hurdle scheduled for 4.30: Five of the six winners to date scored at 4/1 or less, statistics which include three successful favourites. The other winner was returned at 66/1!
Bumper event scheduled for 5.35: Last year’s winning 85/40 favourite was the first market leader to score in the seven-year history of the scheduled finale.
General stats: It does not seem possible four years has passed since Nicky Henderson last won the Cesarewitch, three of the trainer’s last seven runners having won here on the Rowley Mile. Nicky’s only entry earlier in the week was Sentry Duty who has finished sixth in this event in each of the last two years. Kieren Fallon was booked to ride some time ago.
Group 2 Challenge Stakes scheduled for 1.50: Three-year-olds have won four of the last five contests.
Group 1 ‘Middle Park’ scheduled for 2.20: Aidan O’Brien was responsible for four of the twelve five-day declarations, with the trainer having saddled two of the last eight winners of this event. Aidan won this race with a 25/1 chance last year en route to securing a 93/1 double on the card.
Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes scheduled for 2.55: Three favourites have won during the last six years, during which time Jim Bolger (Dawn Approach and Leitir Mor are Jim‘s potential runners this time around) has claimed four victories. Aidan O’Brien made seven of the fifteen declarations earlier in the week.
‘Cesarewitch’ scheduled for 3.35: Eight of the last ten winners were sent off at a maximum price of 16/1 which suggests that this marathon event is not as much of a lottery as most believe it to be. Two successful favourites (both returned at 9/2) were recorded during the study period. Five of the last six winners have carried a maximum burden of 9-1.
Group 2 ‘Rockfel’ scheduled for 4.05: To put the favourite stats of the ’Cesarewitch’ in perspective with its average of thirty odd runners, only the same number of market leaders have won this two-year-old event during the same period. Aidan O’Brien held two options earlier in the week in a race that Aidan has won twice in the last five years.
Group 3 Autumn Stakes scheduled for 4.40: Favourites have won four of the last eight renewals, though the other contests were won by horses returned at 33/1-20/1-9/1-8/1. Montiridge was Richard Hannon’s only potential runner on Monday, the trainer having saddled two of the last nine winners.
Group 3 Darley Stakes scheduled for 5.15: Only one clear favourite has obliged during the last decade, with two of the last four winners having been sent off at 50/1 and 25/1.
General stats: William Haggas boasts a 25% strike rate at York, backing the stats up with an LSP reading of thirty-three points.
Class 3 five furlong handicap scheduled for 2.05: Four favourites have prevailed via nine renewals during the last decade which is a fine record in such a competitive event. Four-year-olds have won four of the last eight contests.
Listed ‘Rockingham Stakes’ scheduled for 3.10: Nine of the last ten renewals have been secured by horses scoring at odds of 15/2 or less, stats which include three successful favourites.
Class 2 mixed vintage six furlong handicap scheduled for 3.45: Richard Fahey has saddled silver and bronze medals since securing the previous two renewals. Two of the last three favourites have won at odds of 13/2 and 6/1.
2YO seven furlong maiden event scheduled for 4.20: Mark Johnston saddled the first two winners at odds of 8/1 & 6/1 before missing last year‘s event. Mark held two options earlier in the week.
Eighteen furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: Three and four-year-olds have dominated the contest to date with junior raiders leading 3-2 via six contests. Mark Tompkins has saddled two of the last four winners and the trainer only had Astromagick potentially representing the stable at the time of writing. The four-year-old was made 3/1 favourite for this event last year when finishing sixth of twelve.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wellideclare9.png240980Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/geegeez_banner_new_300x100.pngChris Worrall2012-10-13 10:30:152012-10-10 21:13:36Well I Declare: 13th October
The weekend is almost upon us and there's plenty of action planned for today. Here are Mal Boyle's thoughts on the racing scheduled at Ascot, Yarmouth, Fontwell, hexham and Wolverhampton on...
General stats: I have made the point before that because of the competitive nature of racing at Ascot on the level, positive trends are difficult to come by, though Clive Brittain boasts decent profits down the years. Clive’s meagre 7% strike rate means that you have to pick and choose his representatives carefully though, whereby Paul D’Arcy might be the man to flag up this week as his combined strike rate and LSP figures (fourteen and twenty-one respectively) make for half decent reading.
Gordon Carter event scheduled for 4.40: Just one winning favourite recorded via the last ten renewals though nine scorers were sent off at odds of 9/1 or less.
General stats: Saaboog is also declared to run in a contest on Yarmouth’s card, should the James Tate inmate miss his potential Southwell assignment on Thursday.
General stats: Paul Nicholls has his runners a little further forward than is often the case at this time of year (three of his last five runners have won at the time of writing), whereby Paul’s 35% strike rate catches the eye in no uncertain terms.
General stats: John Quinn’s 7/19 trainer stats stand out from the crowd whilst Tom Scudamore has put his rare visits to Hexham in the plate to good use bearing in mind Tom’s 4/15 recent record.
General stats: Jeremy Noseda is enjoying a fine run of late season form whereby the trainer might be able to improve impressive figures already in place via his 32% strike rate which is back up by a 25 LSP reading. Simon Dow’s ratio of 5/14 also makes for good reading.
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/10/wellideclare3.png240980Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/geegeez_banner_new_300x100.pngChris Worrall2012-10-05 10:00:252012-10-02 11:14:12Well I Declare: 5th October
No joy for SotD yesterday, as Reymysterio failed to complete the race. We managed to beat the market once again as our advised 6/1 was backed in to 4/1 at the off. Despite an occasional tendency to jump slightly to the left, he jumped well for most of the race and led from the start until a crashing fall at the 16th of the 21 fences. This is the second heavy fall in as many races and he's probably one to avoid for now.
We're travelling back across the country the today, all the way up to the North East for a 2m 4.5f Class 4 Handicap Hurdle, where 7 runners are due to slog it out on heavy ground (soft in places) in the...
When we talk about Hexham Handicap Hurdles, the first name I think of is Micky Hammond. Over the past two years his record in such contests is excellent with 4 wins from 7 runners and a good 12pts level stakes profit at ISP. he has four entries at hexham today, but only one of these is in a handicap hurdle and that horse is Rosairlie. Stamiona and speed between the hurdles shouldn't be an issue today, as this horse has run in flat races up to 2m 2f, as recently as just 13 days ago finishing a good 3rd. She's also a course winner, having scored on her last appearance here and was staying on well at the end.
Rosairlie has, admittedly, not yet proven herself at this distance, but recent efforts tend to suggest she'll relish the extra distance, she's in good form and runs off a decent enough mark, aided by the claim allowed to the talented conditional jockey on board today: Joe Colliver. All things considered, 7/2 BOG looks a decent price to me, but you can always...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/Stat-of-the-Day7.png150150Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/geegeez_banner_new_300x100.pngChris Worrall2012-04-23 09:08:322012-04-23 09:29:33Stat of the Day, 23rd April 2012
SotD made a swift return to winning ways yesterday as Featherintheattic proved too good for his rivals. In a tight race, his main competition couldn't live with his burst of speed on the run in to come home as the 5/2 jt fav. Incidentally, Henderson's runner in the bumper finished 3rd.
We're still staying away from Cheltenham and heading to the North East instead to take a look at a 3-mile, Class 5 Handicap Hurdle. The going is expected to be Good, but a little softer in places and 13 runners are due to contest the...
Trainer John (J.J.) Quinn's fairly small string of horses have been in decent form of late with 3 winners from the last 9 to take part. He has an excellent strike rate of almost 37% at the track since 2008 and his hurdlers have won 60% (yes, 60%!) of their races here in the past couple of years. It is admittedly a small sample size, but his horses do seem to be particularly adept at this course.
He sends just one runner on the 5hrs-plus round trip today in the form of Tartan Tiger. This horse actually looked better than his results would suggest and has looked like he needed a stiffer task than the 6 rides at 2m 1f and one ride at 2m 4f. He tackled 3m 1f last time out a t Musselburgh and finished strongly, just missing out on a place that day by half a length. I expect to him improve on that run today given the better ground conditions.
He looks like a decent E/W bet for me today and I'm going to take some of 13/2 (BOG!) on offer from Bet365, but as always you can...
https://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/Stat-of-the-Day7.png150150Chris Worrallhttps://www.geegeez.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/geegeez_banner_new_300x100.pngChris Worrall2012-03-15 09:18:062012-03-15 09:18:06Stat of the Day: 15th March 2012