Tag Archive for: I Am Maximus

Monday Musings: BBC Shows National Apathy

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Have you ever needed to get somewhere but have found yourself stuck in traffic, writes Tony Stafford. Of course you have. At £1.90 a litre for diesel (if you’re lucky) you would imagine there would be fewer than usual cars out on the North Circular Road in London, early on a Saturday April afternoon, but no.

I needed to get home to watch the Grand National having undertaken an errand but realised it unlikely unless I wanted to collect a guaranteed speeding ticket. Brainwave! Didn’t BBC Radio Five Live cover every race of the Cheltenham Festival’s four days uninterrupted last month, with Gina Brice at the helm? Why wouldn’t they give some attention to the event their admirable chief commentator (and West Ham United fan) John Hunt rightly described as the “most famous race in the world”?

We had the vital matter beforehand of full commentary of Brentford versus Everton from 3pm but with the big race starting an hour later, Steve Crossman, hosting the day’s coverage from Aintree, assured racing fans that there would be the best build-up to the race, with the football switching to Radio Five Sports Extra while we were at Aintree.

Needless to say, there were five additional minutes to the first half at Brentford, so it wasn’t until 3.50 and 35 seconds that the half-time whistle blew.

Once more, this time by commentator Ian Dennis, we were promised all the build-up was on its way. If you want to stay with the football, retune to Sports Extra, otherwise here it’s all about the 178th Grand National.

Crossman by now had the microphone, announcing there’s ten minutes to go and that he had just “seen I Am Maximus in the golden dark brown colours” (sic). Then without a second breath he added, “half times in the football, Burnley/Brighton” and we got a brief report on that so important match.

Next Steve was “in the parade ring with the suits, dresses – all the colours of the rainbow. On the course, John Hunt”. “Can Willie Mullins win it again and make it three in a row to equal Vincent O’Brien’s feat of 70 years ago?”

John spotted Panic Attack and Gerri Colombe, one of five runners for Gordon Elliott, and noted JP McManus and his six runners.

Steve jumped in, “Half-time Oxford 1-0, St Mirren…, Southampton 0 Derby 1. Other half-times <without reports>”.

Seamlessly, he switched back to Aintree and Davy Russell, twice the winner on Tiger Roll. “When you go out to ride in the Grand National what do you feel?”

Davy says, “You have to keep calm, take your routine, think about which horses you want to be around, and those you don’t want to be near <in the race>.

Again Steve showed his nimbleness. “Half-time, Hearts… Could the door be creaking open for Celtic? The reporter said, “Celtic are dominating the ball…”

Steve again: “Other scores, League 2 Newport/ Harrogate. That reporter informed Grand National fans hanging on every word that Newport had achieved the great escape in avoiding relegation from the Football League nine years ago and now that fate seems destined for basement club Harrogate.

Back to John. “The last chance for punters to have a bet.” Over to Rob Nothman who has been at the BBC since the time they used to broadcast live sport on TV. “Betting movements. I Am Maximus is favourite at 13/2, Jagwar second favourite at 15/2 ahead of Panic Attack at 8/1.”

Time marches on, but it stands still if you want football info. Live scores… but even as the last dregs of the halftimes around the country were dribbled out, the sound of bugles could be heard in the background.

Steve again. “This sound tells us that it’s nearly time, the buglers of the King’s Guard in their red tunics and black caps. Davy is still with us.”

Davy: “So many bright colours, bays, greys, all the jockeys’ colours. Gerri Colombe is a good horse, Oscars Brother, trained by Connor King and ridden by his brother, Daniel. “

Steve: “The jockeys climb on board … and walk past Blackmore’s Bar named after Rachael, the first woman to ride the winner of the race. Then Red Rum’s Bar. Toby McCain-Mitchell, grandson of three-time winner Red Rum’s trainer Ginger McCain has the ride on Top Of The Bill.”

Back to John. “They are cantering down right in front of us” and then John introduces his three co-commentators, in order Darren Owen, Gary O’Brien and Gina Brice, the first woman, they say, to commentate on the race. Do I not remember though in the dim and distant past, Aintree’s then owner Mirabel Topham, an actress in her younger days, once making a very amateurish attempt at doing so when the normal commentator stayed away?

Back to Steve. “Davy, I bet the heart rate goes through the roof when the race starts.”

Davy: “Yes, but it’s eerily quiet all the way round.” Davy valiantly and generously tries to get Andrew Thornton, another former jockey and regular Sky Sports Racing man in the north, also one of the pillars of the Cheltenham radio coverage, into the discussion, but he’s shut down.

Steve now must bring in the script he presumably wrote that morning, thus. “You might love the manicured greens of Augusta, the clean white lines of the football but this is all about the torn-up turf, mud, sand and hammering hooves.”

John says: “And torn-up tickets! It’s the biggest betting race of the year, so Rob?”

“I Am Maximus is down to 11/2 clear favourite ahead of 7/1 Panic Attack and 8/1 Jagwar.”

By now they were standing at the start and at 4.02 23, 12 minutes and two seconds after the half-time whistle at Brentford, they were off. The money had continued to go on I Am Maximus, apparently principally a £100k winning bet, reputedly from none other than his owner JP McManus. A hundred grand bet from JP is like a tenner from most of the punters there on the day and in the betting shops of the UK. Not to mention a fiver for you and me!

I stopped off straight after the race to get a bar of chocolate in a petrol station and got back to the car at 4.15 on the dot. Radio Five Live happily had sorted all the post-race thoughts from its team by then and we were back at Brentford. No need to retune then!

Bang on 5pm, the strains of the introduction to the station’s long-running Sports Report programme, still with Steve in the saddle, as it were, from Aintree. He did have a quite lengthy and informative interview with Willie Mullins, keeping John Hunt nearby to help Steve avoid the obvious blunders that the once-a-year “expert” can make.

Willie said how he had wanted to concentrate on the Gold Cup for I Am Maximus and leave the Grand National alone as he’s already won it. “But thankfully, JP was firm wanting him to have another try.”

Mullins suggested there would still be time to win a Gold Cup. “Didn’t L’Escargot win a Gold Cup and then a Grand National?”

Quite right in some respect, but the amazing L’Escargot won two Gold Cups, age seven and eight, then at the age of 12, at the fourth Aintree attempt, overturned a previous defeat in the race by Red Rum, by 15 lengths all from the last fence! How good was he? That was one of two second places for the race’s greatest alongside the three wins. Even the very classy I Am Maximus would do well to match that!

Having backed L’Escargot for that first Gold Cup at 14/1 ante-post I watched him drift to 33’s on the day, but it remains one of the thrills of my racing life being there to see him win, as it was on my first ever visit to the meeting when he won a division of the Gloucestershire Hurdle.

To win a Grand National five years after a first Gold Cup was astonishing. His owner, Raymond Guest, also went down in history for a similarly amazing double. He was the winning owner of one of the great Derby winners, Sir Ivor, trained by Vincent O’Brien after the legendary handler had packed up the jumping game as he had nothing more to prove.

Last week I said I was bored with the Grand National as it had all become too predictable. Mullins did win it again, but he only had a fifth and an eighth among his other seven runners. There were again two UK horses in the first ten, McManus’ Iroko and Johnnywho (4th). The former followed I Am Maximus through late on to pip Joseph O’Brien’s Jordans for second after the Jordans had looked to have the race won under Ben Jones’ aggressive ride.

That meant last year’s second and fourth moved up one spot and two respectively, as the winner, Mullins’ Nick Rockett, was a late withdrawal. Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero reckon runner-up Iroko can make it third time lucky next year.

Although rated 150, so guaranteed to get in the race, Jordans had only one win from 11 runs over fences on his card, but fortunately that was over three miles, otherwise he wouldn’t have been qualified to run. Joseph O’Brien is sure to exploit him to great effect in the future.

There was a measure of unpredictability this year, as seven horses fell with another seven unseating their riders as 16 of the 34 finished the course. At the first fence Patrick Mullins, last year’s winning rider, was unseated from his father’s Grangeclare West, the third home last year. Two more casualties quickly followed: Quai De Bourbon, also Mullins, 33/1, fell at the second and Panic Attack, badly hampered by the latter there, departed at the big ditch that followed.

So Dan Skelton didn’t bring home the Grand National, but four winners on the day (184 on the season) brought him to £4,762,920 against Mullins’ Grand National-enhanced figure of £2,668,886. Dan could be in reach of that unprecedented £5 million seasonal haul with money aplenty on offer at Ayr and Sandown and loads of little fish in between (little fish are sweet, as Arthur Stephenson used to say). I think he can do it.

As to the BBC, I don’t want you to think that Steve Crossman made a bad job of things. It’s just that whoever produced that show ought to have switched the entire football coverage from 3pm onwards to Sports Extra, leaving a full hour to dissect the many interesting aspects of what they did repeatedly say was the world’s biggest race. Then another period of reflection bringing it up to 5pm and Sports Report.

In the end, it was 12 minutes and two seconds, with at least half of it given away to keep us racing fans abreast of events at St Mirren and the travails of Harrogate Town.

I wonder how the executives at the beleaguered Beeb can equate six minutes as the “best build-up to the biggest betting race in the world” – with the reputed (was it 70?) BBC staff being sent across to cover the Masters golf at the same time at licence-payers’ expense. That’s another major event you need to search for elsewhere to see it live.

The BBC has had more than its share of scandals in recent times. That they no longer televise the Grand National is shameful enough, leaving it to ITV and Racing TV. But to think that six minutes is regarded as the best build-up coverage shows just how warped the Corporation’s values have become.

- TS

2026 Grand National Trends

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2026 Grand National Betting Trends and Tips - The Randox Health Grand National is simply the biggest and most famous horse race in the world. Run at Aintree racecourse each year in early April the gruelling contest is run over a trip of 4 1/4 miles with the first ever winner being the appropriately-named Lottery.

With 34 runners to go through one popular angle on whittling down the field is to use some key trends - apply these to the 2026 Grand National runners and you'll at least build up a profile of the type of horse it takes to win the Liverpool marathon.

Did you know that since 1978 only FOUR horses have won carrying more than 11-5 in weight, while we've only had one winning 7 year-old since 1941........which was Noble Yeats in 2022.

Here at GEEGEEZ we look back at past winners and highlights the key betting trends ahead of the 2026 Aintree Grand National - this year run on Saturday 11th April - and sponsored by Randox Health.

Ok, at first glance with now 34 runners (reduced from 40) contesting 30 fences for 4 1/4 miles the Aintree Grand National does have quite a scary look to it when it comes to trying to hunt down the winner – however, despite those daunting factors you can often find the Grand National winner by following a few simple tips and trends.

The 2026 Grand National is on Saturday 11th April at 4pm.

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Positive Grand National Pointers……………….

  • Horses that had won or finished placed in a National race of any description
  • Note horses wearing a tongue-tie (5 of the last 8)
  • Aged between 8-10, but last 10 have all been aged 9 or younger
  • Look for horses that raced over hurdles at some point earlier that season
  • Horses that like to be ridden up with the pace in their races often do well (avoid horses that like to be held up)
  • Irish-trained horses have a great recent record in the Grand National (won 7 of the last 9)
  • Irish-bred horses have the best recent Grand National record
  • Look for horses that finished unplaced in the previous season’s Grand National – they often do well
  • Horses that have won over 3miles in the past is virtual ‘must-have’

Negative Grand National Pointers…………………

  • Horses aged 13 or older don’t have a great Grand National winning record – you have to go back to 1923!
  • Runners that have fallen or unseated three or more times often don’t run well
  • Past Grand National winners and previous Grand National placed horses have bad returning records
  • Horses that had last raced over 56 days ago often don’t run well
  • Runners that had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival, run the previous month, don’t fare well, although Tiger Roll kicked this trend into touch again in 2019 and Corach Rambler won at Cheltenham before winning the National in 2023.

Recent Grand National Winners

2025 - Nick Rockett (33/1)
2024 - I Am Maximus (7/1 jfav)
2023 - Corach Rambler (8/1 fav)
2022 – Noble Yeats (50/1)
2021 - Minella Times (11/1)
2020 - Cancelled (Covid)
2019 - Tiger Roll (4/1 fav)
2018 - Tiger Roll (10/1)
2017 - One For Arthur (14/1)
2016 – Rule The World 33/1
2015 – Many Clouds 25/1
2014 – Pineau De Re 25/1
2013 – Auroras Encore 66/1
2012 - Neptune Collonges 33/1
2011 - Ballabriggs 14/1
2010 - Don't Push It 10/1jfav
2009 - Mon Mome 100/1
2008 - Comply or Die 7/1 jfav
2007 - Silver Birch 33/1
2006 - Numbersixvalverde 11/1
2005 - Hedgehunter 7/1 fav
2004 - Amberleigh House 16/1
2003 - Monty’s Pass 16/1
2002 - Bindaree 20/1
2001 - Red Marauder 33/1
2000 - Papillon 10/1
1999 - Bobbyjo 10/1
1998 - Earth Summit 7/1 fav
1997 - Lord Gyllene 14/1
1996 - Rough Quest 7/1 fav
1995 - Royal Athlete 40/1
1994 - Miinnehoma 16/1
1993 - VOID RACE
1992 - Party Politics 14/1
1991 - Seagram 12/1
1990 - Mr Frisk 16/1

Aintree Grand National Trends

  • 33/34 – Officially rated 137 or higher
  • 32/34 – Ran no more than 55 days ago
  • 30/34 – Had won over at least 3m (chase) before
  • 30/34 – Had won no more than 6 times over fences before
  • 26/34 – Returned a double-figure price
  • 25/34 – Ran no more than 34 days ago
  • 25/34 – Carried 10-13 OR LESS
  • 25/34 – Aged 9 or older
  • 24/34 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
  • 23/34 - Aged 10 years-old or younger
  • 22/34 – Finished in the top 4 last time out (8 of the last 9)
  • 21/34 – Had won between 4-6 times over fences before
  • 20/34 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
  • 20/34 – Placed favourites (top 4)
  • 18/34 – Carried 10-8 OR LESS
  • 16/34 – Aged 9 or 10 years-old
  • 14/34 – Trained in Ireland (inc 11 of the last 19 years)
  • 13/34 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
  • 10/34 – Won last time out
  • 8/34 – Won by the favourite or joint favourite
  • 7/34 – Ran in a previous Aintree Grand National (but 15 of the last 17 were having their debuts)
  • 3/34 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
  • 3/34 - Trained by Willie Mullins (last 2)
  • 2/34 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
  • 2/34 - Trained by Lucinda Russell (2 of the last 8)
  • 1/34 – Won by a horse aged 7 years-old OR LESS

Aintree Grand National Facts

  • Since 1978, 151 horses have tried to win with 11-6 (or more) – with just three winners – I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024, Many Clouds (11-9) in 2015 & Neptune Collonges (11-6) in 2012
  • 20 of the last 26 winners were bred in Ireland
  • 5 of the last 8 winners wore a tongue tie
  • 23 of the last 31 winners aged between 8-10
  • Only 4 horses that won at the Cheltenham Festival that same season has won since 1961 (Corach Rambler did the double in 2023)
  • 15 of the last 17 Grand National winners were having their first run in the race
  • Just one 7 year-old or younger to win after 1940 (Noble Yeats, 2022)
  • 16 of the last 28 winners had won or been placed in a National-type race before
  • No horse aged 13 or older has won since 1923 or placed since 1969
  • 3 of the last 16 winners ran in the Scottish National the previous season
  • 10 of the last 22 winners had run over hurdles at some stage earlier in the season
  • 5 of the last 23 winners had been unplaced in the National last year
  • Just two past winners or placed horses from the previous year’s race has won for 39 years (88 have attempted)
  • 26 of the last 28 winners had fallen or unseated no more than twice in their careers
  • Just two back-to-back winners since 1974 Red Rum (1974) and Tiger Roll (2019)

Aintree Grand National Betting Trends (22 Year)

22/22 – Carried 11st 9lbs or less
20/22 – Officially rated 137 or higher
19/22 – Had won over at least 3m previously
19/22 – Ran 50 days or less ago
18/22 – Carried 11st 5lbs or less
15/22 – Won by a horse aged 9 or older
14/22 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/22– Winners from the top 8 in the betting
11/22 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
9/22 – Won by horses aged in double-figures
9/22 – Carried 11-0 or more in weight
8/22 – Experienced the National fences before
8/22 – Won their last race
6/22 – Winning favourites (2 joint)
6/22 - (Won by a horse aged 8 years-old (6 of the last 10)
5/22– Won by a horse aged 10 years-old
3/22 – Won by the Gordon Elliott yard
3/22 - Won by the Willie Mullins yard
2/22 – Won by the McCain yard
2/22 - Won by the Lucinda Russell yard

2026 Grand National Trends and Stats 

Weight Watchers: Some recent winners have carried 11st (or more) to victory - including Nick Rockett (11-8) and I Am Maximus (11-6) in 2024. However, looking back at recent trends make this weight your cut-off point.

If you look back over the winners, we’ve only seen the mighty Red Rum (1974 & 1977), Nick Rockett (2025) and Many Clouds (2015) carry 11-8 or more – 25 of the last 34 winners carried 10-13 or less.

Staying Power: Stamina is an absolute must when scanning down the Grand National entries. Year-after-year there are always plenty of hype horses that are certainly talented, but the big question surrounding their chance is will they stay the gruelling 4m 1/4f trip?

30 of the last 34 winners had won over 3m+ in the past, but it's worth noting that the 2021 Minella Times - had only won over 2m6f before heading to National glory.

Age Concern: Experience is a vital attribute when looking back at past Grand National winners with horses aged 9 years-old or OLDER certainly the ones to focus on.

Before Noble Yeats won as a 7 year-old in 2022 - you had to go back to 1940 (Bogskar) to find the last 7 year-old to grab the Merseyside marathon!

Also don’t be too put off if your fancy is in their twilight years – but not a teenager - 26 of the last 34 winners were aged 9 or older, but it is worth pointing out 6 of the last 10 winners were 8 year-olds, suggesting there might be a bit of a turning point in this age stat. Including Nick Rockett (2025) and I Am Maximus in (2024).

9 of the last 10 winners were aged either 8 or 9.

Tongue-Tie: An interesting stat that's building up is that five of the last 8 National winners wore a tongue-tie. Backed up again in 2023 with Corach Rambler sporting this form of headgear or equipment.

We can expect several of the runners to follow suit, but this emerging trend should also help knock out many. While 3 of the last 7 winners wore headgear of some sort.

Luck Of The Irish: Our friends from the across the Irish Sea have raided these shores to win the Aintree Grand National many times in recent years, so certainly take a second glance at any of their runners.

10 of the last 21 winners came from Irish-based stables, including 7 of the last 9 and another in 2025 with the Willie Mullins-trained Nick Rockett - which was his third win in the race after I Am Maximus and Hedgehunter.

The only two non-Irish winners came from the Lucinda Russell team in Scotland – so the last British-trained winner was still Many Clouds in 2015.

In short, the Irish or Russell have won ALL of the last NINE Nationals.

Fencing Master: With thirty of the most unique obstacles in horse racing to negotiate with then having previous form over the tricky Grand National fences can be a massive advantage.

Many recent Grand National winners had previously been tried over these Grand National-style fences in the past. The Topham Chase and Becher Chase - or a previous run in the big race itself – are the main races that are staged at Aintree racecourse over the same Grand National-style fences to look back at.

Who’s Your Favourite: The betting on the Grand National always picks up pace in the weeks building up to the big day, but on the Saturday itself, when the once-a-year punters hit the high streets, this is when the betting market really kicks into gear.

It’s also worth noting that the weights for the Grand National are issued well in advance (February each year), so with some horses often running well after they’ve been given their allocated weight and before the race then this can also impact the ante post Grand National betting.

8 of the last 34 runnings have been won by the favourite (24%), while 20 of the last 34 (59%) market leaders were placed (top 4 finish)!

Two of the last three runnings have now been won by the favourite (or joint) too, plus three of the last six.

Market Toppers: We’ve already talked about the actual favourite, but this Grand National trend can be taken a bit further when you actually drill down into recent runnings.

In fact, most winners in recent years started in the first eight of the Grand National betting market – indicating that despite the Venetia Williams-trained, Mon Mome, popping-up at 100/1 in 2009, that punters generally tend to get this race right.

13 of the last 22 winners came from the top 8 in the betting market. But we did see a 33/1 winner last year with Nick Rockett.

With 6 of the last 7 winners returning 14/1 or shorter. Only 50/1 winner Noble Yeats in 2022 has really saved the bookies since 2017.

Fitness First: Probably the biggest trend in recent years, and a really easy way to whittle the 34 strong field down in one easy swoop, is just check how many days ago your fancy last ran.

This is because the majority of the recent Grand National winners had their previous race no more than 48 days prior to the big day.

While if you want to take this trend further than you’ll notice that a large amount of recent winners of the Grand National actually raced less than 40 days prior to landing the greatest steeplechase in the world.

31 of the last 33 winners ran no more than 55 days ago, while 25 of the last 34 raced no more than 34 days ago!

In 2021, Minella Times, did defy this trend after winning the National off a 62-day break, while the 2023 winner Corach Rambler ran just 32 days prior, when first in the Ultima Handicap Chase in 2023 at the Cheltenham Festival.

12 months ago, Nick Rockett was last in action 42 days before winning the race – when winning the Bobbyjo Chase at Fairyhouse, which was won by last year's third Grangeclare West this season.

The last two Bobbyjo Chase winners have won the National.

While 6 of the last 7 winners ran in the Ultima Chase, Bobbyjo Chase or Cross Country Chase before winning the National.

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2026 Irish Grand National Trends

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Staged at Fairyhouse racecourse the 2026 Irish Grand National is run over a trip of 3m5f with 24 fences to be jumped.

The gruelling contest is always staged on Easter Monday, which this year falls on 6th April 2025. While several Irish Grand National winners have also won the Aintree Grand National, but none in the same season – I Am Maximus, Bobbyjo and Numbersixvalverde are recent examples of this.

But this year the Irish National comes BEFORE the Aintree Grand National, which is on 11th April.

Regarding the stats - did you know?

The 19 of the last 22 winners carried 10-13 or less in weight, while 16 of the last 22 successful horses were Irish-bred.

We’ve also seen just three winning favourites in the last 22 renewals, while in 2021 we saw a 150/1 winner of the race - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN - and 11 of the last 22 returned 20/1+.

To prove any horse really can win this National.

I Am Maximus (2023) gave Willie Mullins just his second win in the race but also provided Paul Townend with his first. As mentioned he went onto win the Aintree Grand National the following season.

In 2024 Intense Raffles won the Irish National, but despite being well-fancied for the Aintree National was pulled up.

While last year (2025) the Rebecca Curtis-trained Haiti Couleurs raided Ireland to win the Irish Grand National - he went onto win the Welsh National the following season (2025/26)

Recent Irish Grand National Winners

2025 - HAITI COULEURS (13/2)
2024 - INTENSE RAFFLES (13/2)
2023 – I AM MAXIMUS (8/1)
2022 – LORD LARIAT (40/1)
2021 - FREEWHEELIN DYLAN (150/1)
2020 - No Race (Covid)
2019 – BURROWS SAINT (6/1 fav)
2018 - GENERAL PRINCIPLE (20/1)
2017 – OUR DUKE (9/2 fav)
2016 – ROGUE ANGEL (16/1)
2015 – THUNDER AND ROSES (20/1)
2014 – SHUTTHEFRONTDOOR (8/1 fav)
2013 – LIBERTY COUNSEL (50/1)
2012 – LION NA BEARNAI (33/1)
2011 – ORGANISEDCONFUSION (12/1)
2010 – BLUESEA CRACKER (25/1)
2009 – NICHE MARKET (33/1)
2008 – HEAR THE ECHO (33/1)
2007 – BUTLER’S CABIN (14/1)
2006 – POINT BARROW (20/1)
2005 – NUMBERSIXVALVERDE (9/1)
2004 – GRANIT D’ESTRUVAL (33/1)
2003 – TIMBERA (11/1)

Irish Grand National Betting Trends

20/22 – Won over at least 3m previously
20/22 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or less
19/22 – Carried 10-13 or LESS
19/22 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
19/22 – Aged 9 or younger
17/22 – Won by an Irish-based trainer
16/22 – Irish bred
16/22 – Carried 10-8 or LESS
16/22 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
15/22 – Returned a double-figure (or triple-figure) price
14/22 – Had raced at Fairyhouse previously
13/22 – Carried 10-6 or LESS
13/22 – Unplaced favourites
13/22 – Finished fourth or better last time out
11/22 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
11/22 – Rated between 130-137
5/22 – Won by an English-based trainer
5/22 – Won last time out
3/22 – Ran at Navan last time out
3/22 – Winning favourites (3 in the last 11)
2/22 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill (2007 & 2014)
2/22 – Trained by Thomas Gibney (2 in last 13)
Trainer Dermot A McLoughlin has trained 2 of the last 5
Trainer Willie Mullins has trained 2 of the last 6
Trainer Gordon Elliott has only won the race once (2018, General Principle)
Only 5 winners since 1996 have carried 11st 1lb+ (but 2 of the last 3 carried 11-1+)
11 of the last 22 winners returned 20/1 +
The average winning SP in the last 22 years is 25/1
Only 4 British-trained winners since 2005
Only 4 horses since 2000 to win with more than 11-0, Intense Raffles (2024), I Am Maximus (2023), Our Duke (2017) & Commanche Court (2000)

 

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Monday Musings: Levelling Up

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Much was made when the entries came out of this year’s alleged “levelling up” of the respective teams for the Randox Grand National, writes Tony Stafford. Home stables, tired of the now routine grab of almost all of the £1 million prize money by the Irish, had entered close to half (37 of the 87 still engaged) so would have better chances to keep the prizes at home, went the thinking.

Fat chance. Nowadays only 34 can run, making the task of breaking into that portion guaranteed a place in the starting lineup almost impossible. Of last year’s field of 32 (two cried off with vet’s certificates on the day of the race), only eight were UK trained. In contrast, Willie Mullins ran eight on his own, and Gordon Elliott seven.  Three each from those all-powerful stables started at 40/1 and bigger and they all pulled up. The Mullins trio of pullers-up were 100/1, 40/1 and 125/1: Elliott’s were 125/1, 50/1 and 100/1.

No hopers maybe and, just as possibly, their respective owners fancied an afternoon at Aintree and the privilege of being looked after by the redoubtable, nay vivacious, redhead Siobhan Doolan in the owners’ dining room! More likely, their main purpose was to eliminate as many potential UK threats to the big two stables as they possibly could.

With just shy of 50 per cent of the field, it was hard to imagine their failing to get among the big prizes and so they did. Mullins won it with I Am Maximus in the JP McManus colours, and Elliott was second and fourth with old-timers Delta Work and Galvin.

Their compatriot, Henry de Bromhead, had three runners, and two of the first six home in third-placed Minella Indo, the 2021 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, and Ain’t That A Shame, sixth for amateur-riding owner David Maxwell. Only the Maxwell horse does not have the Aintree ticket this time, but the Irish top quartet from last year do. Christian Williams’ fifth-placed Kitty’s Light does not have the entry.

At nine, I Am Maximus will be the baby of the returning team, and he is up 8lb to a top-weighted 167. Second and third are now age 12, and the fourth is an 11-year-old. They aren’t for moving anytime soon.

Two Venetia Williams horses are the sole UK interlopers in the top ten in the weights. Both Royale Pagaille, the second top-weight, and L’Homme Presse ran on Saturday and neither showed the sort of form needed to be feasible contenders at Aintree or, more immediately, in the Gold Cup at Cheltenham.

Royale Pagaille has a fantastic record at Haydock but, predictably, asking him to give almost two stone to some tough staying handicappers in the Grand National Trial over 3m4f there proved too demanding a task. He faded out of contention behind an impressive winner in Nicky Richards’ Famous Bridge, who does have the Aintree entry, as does runner-up Apple Away and fourth-placed Git Maker.

Famous Bridge had been loping along easily in the same race 12 months earlier, when unseating his rider Sean Quinlan six fences from home. The race was won by Gavin Cromwell’s Yeah Man. He returned aiming at the follow-up but this time it was he that didn’t get round.

Royal Pagaille’s intervention in this race had a significant difference to Famous Bridge’s chances, even if he was running off only a 1lb lower handicap mark. Last year, Famous Bridge carried 11st4lb, now he was 16lb lower on 10st2lb. Checking back, he had never carried less than 11st in any of his last ten races over the previous two years! Going as far as three-and-a-half miles, that surely would make a massive difference and so it proved.

So is Nicky Richards planning ahead to the big day in April? Hardly. On 136, Famous Bridge is number 80, five places lower than Lucinda Russell’s mare Apple Away. To complete the trio of unrealistic Grand National candidates from this so-called Trial, Jamie Snowden’s Git Maker in a closing fourth, is number 84.

Famous Bridge did well to collect the £57k first prize. Yeah Man, rated 144 and who unseated on Saturday, is number 61 for the big race. The lowest mark to get in last year was 146. It could happen, but Gavin Cromwell is almost sure to have his sights lowered, maybe to a Cheltenham handicap with the Irish Grand National even more a possible destination.

The other Venetia star L’Homme Presse did his Gold Cup aspirations no favours with an abject performance in the Grade 1 Ascot Chase. Jumping out to the left from an early stage, he was soon pulled up by Charlie Deutsch as the Paul Nicholls-trained Pic D’Orhy won in trademark all-the-way style.

Nicholls showed his emotion, first cheering the horse and Harry Cobden home with his inimitable energy. Then, when interviewed later, he showed how much he was relieved at this first Grade 1 success for his stable since Pic D’Orhy won the same race 12 months ago. Don’t worry Paul, nobody thinks you’re anything but a fantastic trainer. What do they say, form is temporary, class is permanent?

Anyway, the Irish do not intend relinquishing the £500,000 top Grand National prize lightly and it seems more inevitable by the day that JP McManus will be making it Grand National win number four.

He has the first three in the betting with Inothewayurthinkin on top at 8/1 for Cromwell, and last year’s winner second in at 12’s. Slightly from left field is third favourite Iroko, trained in the UK by Oliver Greenall and Josh Guerriero; he gets in fine as he’s number 27 on the list.

His latest fourth place in a Grade 3 handicap at Cheltenham last month attracted the attention of the stewards who interviewed Jonjo O’Neill, his rider, afterwards and then issued a lengthy report of his comments. Reading between the lines, it doesn’t seem that they were totally convinced by what he told them, and the 14/1 price about the horse, a seven-year-old as is Inothewayurthinkin, reflects the market’s fear of a McManus “plunge”, if he still bothers plunging that is.

Nicky Richards has been recovering well from the riding accident which caused such serious injuries last year, and his horses have been providing the ideal tonic. As well as the valuable prize so deservedly collected by Famous Bridge in the revered Hemmings racing colours, he has also been having a great time with previously unraced bumper horses.

He even asked me to mention a couple of weeks ago to the boss of the geegeez.co.uk team that he had some horses available for syndication and that surely Geegeez needed a representation in the north of the country! Sorry Nicky, no joy on that one.

It seems that Thursday’s debut bumper winner Upon Tweed had been the subject of considerable interest, and he says, “I’m not sure I’ll be training him for much longer. I’ll never stop being amazed how much money agents seem to have to bid on behalf of wealthy people for prospective jumping horses, but they do!”

At the other end of the scale, the latest Tattersalls Online sale last week proved little short of a total washout. Two or three sequences of around ten horses at a time did not receive a suitable bid between them when the closing time for their sale came up with a few minutes’ space in between them. I made it that only 53 of 137 lots changed hands and many of these at bargain basement levels. The whole sale might have struggled to match what Upon Tweed eventually goes for when that piece of horse trading concludes.

Richards' accident last year is testimony to the inherent dangers of riding racehorses. Yesterday’s news that Michael O’Sullivan, at 24 one of the most promising jump jockeys in Ireland, had died following his fall in a race at Thurles last week, shocked the racing community there and here in the UK, too.

Racing families are uniquely resilient, but such terrible accidents are a constant reminder that the ambulances, doctors and vets that attend every race in the principal racing countries are not in any way arbitrary but rather absolutely essential.

- TS

Monday Musings: A Cakewalk for Willie

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We knew when he won the Grand National it would be tight, writes Tony Stafford. The differential between Willie Mullins, devouring his first (of many, no doubt) UK trainers’ titles and runner-up Dan Skelton, was in the end just the £344,717, more than enough to see off Kerry Lee, whose 18 winners at a fine strike-rate of 24% earned in total £309k. She was 43rd in the table with some very big names finishing considerably south of her.

I read somewhere that it was remarkable that Mullins could achieve his feat with so few runners in the UK. If you talk of total numbers fair enough, but apart from the money – expertly plucked out of the vagaries of the programme book where he has such an advantage – his numbers weren’t as great as you could imagine.

Let’s start with strike-rate, just 18%, lower than Paul Nicholls – third overall, and £95k behind Sketon, but Paul’s 169 wins came at a rate of 23%. Nicky Henderson, who belatedly enjoyed his own time in the spotlight thanks to Jonbon’s destruction of Willie’s El Fabiolo in the Celebration Chase, with Edwardstone just behind, perhaps surprisingly bettered last season’s tally of 90, by one, achieved at 21%.

Mullins sent over 115 individual horses to the UK – I kid you not! They were mostly targeted at the best of the best, running until the last week’s blitz, for the best money on offer. His 28 winners in all were provided by 26 individual horses.

Only nine trainers raced as many individual animals through the season. Top with 210 was Skelton, winning 120 races. Fergal O’Brien ran 171, winning 107 but still at a better strike-rate of 20% compared with Willie’s 18%. Then it was Nicholls, 169, Donald McCain 167 and Henderson who, for all his peak-season travails, still had 144 to run.

The only others to run more were Olly Murphy, 135; Lucinda Russell, 130; Jonjo O’Neill 126, and Ben Pauling 123. Murphy ought to be eternally grateful to Sure Touch, the geegeez.co.uk-owned horse, who with three successive wins, culminating in defeat of a Mullins raider at Perth signalled his own growing status among the training community as well as helping to clinch the ton.

I’ve gone on over the past two weeks about the relative risk/reward situation with the Grand National under the latest mollified fences but also the mechanism that means hardly anything other than the top Irish stables can get a horse into the contest. Not much risk, but plenty of reward!

I’ve just identified the nine UK-based trainers with the strongest and most effective teams in the land. Between them in the now-denuded 34-runner Grand National, they had two of the seven UK runners, the Irish having the remainder.

Half of their interest went at the first fence when last year’s Lucinda Russell-trained winner Corach Rambler unseated Derek Fox. Dan Skelton’s Galia Des Liteaux ran a creditable eighth.

Contrastingly, the top four Irish NH trainers supplied 20 of the 32 (two were taken out in the morning). Mullins had eight including the eight-year-old winner I Am Maximus; Gordon Elliott, also with more than a century of UK runners in the season just concluded, had seven; Henry De Bromhead three and Gavin Cromwell two. That’s 63% of the field.

Further scrutiny showed that two each of the Mullins and Elliott runners started at 100/1 or more and none finished the course. The effect, if not intentionally, was to minimise the potential danger to the pair’s leading contenders by excluding others (maybe even trained here!). Of course, it’s nice to get hold of owners’ tickets on a day like that.

The simple fact is that without the 500 grand collected by I Am Maximus, not only would Mullins not have beaten Dan Skelton, he might well not have bothered to bring a proportion of the runners that came principally to Aintree and Sandown, leaving it more a traditional last-day Skelton/Nicholls tussle.

Now he’s won it though, the appetite will be there to win it again. All the middle to major prizes will now be on his agenda, and I’ve even heard in the last few days that a satellite yard in the UK might be in the planning.

He did comment that when he asks his owners to fund the travel of his horses across the water, he invariably gets their blessing. How much easier to be based in the middle of the country somewhere like Ian Williams, close to the Midlands motorway hub. Trainers here, say in Newmarket, metaphorically have to get down on their knees and beg to send a horse further than York!

It will be interesting when he does expand his operations from Ireland or if indeed he does take another yard here. The one time that I can remember such an inferiority complex – I was still very young when Vincent O’Brien used to take home Grand Nationals and Gold Cups to order – was in the days of Arkle and Flyingbolt.

Actually, it was more the home trainers afeared of the Tom Dreaper pair. For all Arkle’s greatness, he was still only rated 1lb superior to Flyingbolt, who was the more versatile of the pair, and the Irish handicapper even used to make separate handicaps for some of the biggest races with and without the pair.

The implications for jump racing over here if Mullins was to target mundane day-to-day cards is frightening. Three odds-on shots per meeting would be unappetising, the rest having to trail around like half the fields in Irish novice events to ensure competitive starting marks. But then he has the owners, most of whom are active here anyway.

I’ve no doubt he could easily assemble a team almost as numerically strong as is the case back home. Prospective owners would flock to him, but he could afford to put stringent requirements on them.  Maybe with Nicky Henderson as his assistant? Sorry, that’s silly. Without the Grand National, Nicky would have been close to Mullins this time around and with 142 according to Horses In Training in his care, the future after Saturday’s revival, is bright enough with such as Constitution Hill, Jonbon, Sir Gino and the rest to keep him cool through the summer.

What must Nick Skelton, father of Dan and new parent Harry Skelton, be thinking? His project in Warwickshire has developed to the extent that his son has mastered his former boss Paul Nicholls as well as Henderson and yet he must accept only second place. Harry is a former champion jockey: Dan sorely needs to join him as a champion.

It’s a reminder of the days when Adrian Maguire expected to step up after his tussles with Richard Dunwoody for a first UK title only to be confronted by the comet that was Tony McCoy. Last time I saw him he was riding out at Ballydoyle for Aidan O’Brien, but I gather he has moved on since.

McCoy, Aidan and Willie Mullins all started their careers around the same time three decades ago with Jim Bolger. Many since have made a similar journey, some with great success, but none will match the achievements of this Holy Trinity.

Bolger has made an impact on the flat of course, with his homebreds. Two, Poetic Flare and Dawn Approach, won the 2000 Guineas and I expect to see another Irish-trained colt win next Saturday’s race. City of Troy made a marked impression on me (and everyone else I’m sure) when coming over twice last year to Newmarket, for the Superlative Stakes on the July Course and the Dewhurst Stakes over seven-eighths of the 2000 Guineas mile in October.

His two flawless performances had many thinking back to Frankel and I hope he will deserve to be regarded in the same breath as that great unbeaten champion after Saturday.

The biggest boost to his chance, apart from the Coolmore, Aidan O’Brien, Ryan Moore connection, is that his sire Justify is proving as potentially good in the breeding shed with his first crops around the world as he was as an unbeaten colt in the USA. Only the second Triple Crown winner there since the 1970’s, he should build stamina as well as lightning speed into his horses having won the 12-furlong Belmont Stakes.

The form of City Of Troy’s two wins over here is solidified by Haatem, winner in between them of Goodwood’s Group 2 Richmond Stakes and, this April, the Craven Stakes over the full 2000 Guineas distance, but slaughtered each time by the Guineas favourite. He is regarded as inferior to his Richard Hannon stable-mate Rosallion, who won the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere at the Arc meeting last year. It could be tough, but that’s how the greatest reputations are made.

- TS

Monday Musings: Fences

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We wait all year for the Grand National, anticipating the sternest examination in jump racing anywhere in the world, writes Tony Stafford. Such is the conditioned attitude that the great race has engendered over so many years, owners who have been around for a while, when lucky enough to own a top steeplechaser, are more often than not terrified of taking up the challenge.

We, or rather they, consider the fearsome fences, like the Chair, Becher’s Brook and the rest, and shrink away. Are they wise? Well let me give you a definitive if an admittedly after-timing answer. No, they are not!

The three races over said fences, Thursday’s Fox Hunters, Friday’s Topham and Saturday’s Randox-sponsored £1 million feature, carried big fields by day to day standards, even if the latest modification (or rather mutilation) of the big race has reduced the maximum field to  34 – denuded further with two on-the-day defections on Saturday - more about that later.

The Chair did prove too much of a jumping test for two of the 24 runners among Thursday’s hunter chasers – we were used to seeing 30 - two of them falling at that point. Then again, one was a 50/1 shot, the other was 66’s.

So the biggest of the 16 obstacles and which, along with the water in front of the stands, is one of only two to be jumped once, would surely take more fallers over the next two days. It didn’t, and nor did any of the other 15 obstacles over all three.

Thus, I’m sure we had the first ever Grand National where there had not been a single faller. True, four horses unseated their riders, ironically one of them was last year’s winner Corach Rambler, who continued only briefly having left Derek Fox on the deck at the opening obstacle days after the jockey had recovered from injury just in time to aim for the repeat. Corach Rambler actually did fall, unencumbered by a jockey, at the very next fence and then was seen veering to the right having refused at the third. Three-in-one, unseated, fell and refused at the first three obstacles!

Seven were pulled up, so that left 21 of the 32 starters to complete the course. In the Fox Hunters, in addition to those two fallers at the Chair (fence three), three unseated and seven pulled up, leaving ten finishers. The Topham also had 24 starters, one of which unseated and six more pulled up leaving an almost unfathomable 17 (71%) to get round. These are unprecedented figures, especially on soft or heavy going.

In my usual way of securing a comprehensive analysis, I thought a quick look back two decades to one of my most memorable races, 2004, the year that Graham Lee rode that wonderful race on Ginger McCain’s Amberleigh House, would provide a useful yardstick.

Graham’s ride that day was the Grand National performance I always considered the best I’d seen. He coolly took a pull when most jockeys would have gone hell for leather at the third-last, saving enough in the testing ground to come out on top. Graham rode quite a few winners for me in his Wilf Storey days and it’s a poignant thought that he suffered his horrific injuries after switching to the flat.

The ground was testing that week twenty years ago, but times for the three respective races, the Fox Hunters, Topham and Grand National were all significantly faster than the 2024 versions. This year’s Fox Hunters took around 18 seconds longer to complete; the Topham 12 seconds more and the Grand National seven seconds more even though the course had dried significantly over the previous 24 hours.

The 2004 Fox Hunters had six fallers, two brought down and two pulled up. The Topham that year had eight fallers, two brought down and one refusal while four horses pulled up. In Amberleigh House’s Grand National, nine fell, two were brought down, two refused, seven unseated rider and eight pulled up.

All the modifications have done is to make it little more than a park race. High-class chasers, especially those so redolent of the Irish steeplechasing scene, can continue year to year, mopping up the many Graded and Listed races around their country and maintaining a status that guarantees a place in next year’s field.

Here, the good horses have to run in the few well-endowed but ultra-competitive high-class handicap chases in the calendar like the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury in early December or the Welsh Grand National, also sponsored by Coral at Chepstow on the day after Boxing Day.

Nassalam has been the unwitting vehicle for the grossest example of a handicapping error from his win in the Welsh National, and for once I’m not blaming the official it concerns, but our system. Nassalam had already won a handicap chase at Chepstow a month earlier when he went back to the track for the 3m5f feature. Gary Moore’s gelding was always in contention but in heavy ground, as they moved out of the back straight, his mastery was already evident.

In an eerie foreshadowing of Saturday’s big race, there were no fallers that day at Chepstow, largely because by the time most of them had got to the end of the back straight, they had already given up. Of the 19 horses that set off, five completed, with Iron Bridge off levels with the winner, nearest but beaten 34 lengths.

Iron Bridge, trained by Jonjo O’Neill in the Hemmings Racing colours, and at eight two years senior to Nassalam, hadn’t won a race for some time and his best chase form, far from in top races, had been in novice handicap chases. If the handicapper had been able to wait until the four other horses that completed ran again, he might have acted a little less extravagantly. None of the quartet has done a thing since. All of them were probably bottomed by their run behind Nassalam, so to rate that as a 16lb improvement was simply horrific.

I think Gary Moore, brave enough to let him take his chance in the Grand National even after pulling up in between at Cheltenham in the Gold Cup, has a very strong case to appeal. By going to 161 he was giving weight to a former Gold Cup winner in Minella Indo on Saturday. That one finished third, behind and just ahead of the Gordon Elliott pair Delta Work and Galvin, both habitual competitors at the top level, as well as winner I Am Maximus. Last time out, he had given Vanillier, the 2023 runner-up 12lb and a 14-length beating in a four-runner Grade 3 chase at Fairyhouse.

I Am Maximus received 2lb from Nassalam on Saturday, but had the Grand National weight assessor had available evidence of Fairyhouse to hand, he would have been conceding 3lb to Nassalam. I think having seen him start at 50/1 and after making a couple of mistakes, yet still valiantly completed, the UK handicappers might start adjusting their reaction to what have been hitherto perceived as key races.

If in a 19-runner handicap like the Welsh National it is obvious that only a few horses handled conditions, a more measured approach might be in order. Horses like I Am Maximus, Delta Work (close to dual Grand National winner Tiger Roll more than once), Minella Indo and Galvin should not be receiving weight from a horse with a single performance that sticks out like a sore thumb.

Elsewhere, great credit must go to David Maxwell. Most 45-year-old estate agents would have been in the hospitality area if inclined to visit the Grand National. Instead, he bought Ain’t That A Shame, 105 lengths behind Corach Rambler in last year’s National under Rachael Blackmore and pulled up more recently in the Munster National and guided him into sixth place – and a £30k instalment on the purchase price - only 15.75 lengths adrift of I Am Maximus. Rachael, on the third Minella Indo, still had the edge in the Henry de Bromhead team, so a good piece of business all round.

Most interesting for me, having put forward one of J P McManus’s other runners, Limerick Lace, as my selection last week, it was a shock to see her price contract to 7/1 joint-favourite with the winner.

She finished tenth after making some mistakes, beginning when interfered with, as far as I could see on a single viewing, at the Canal Turn first time round. She was going on very well at the finish, and if she does come back next year, whatever happens in the meantime (almost) I’ll be with her.

Changing tack, something though has to be done about a situation where two trainers can know from months out they can share half the Grand National field between them without fear of serious challenge. This also prevents other potential candidates lower down the handicap scale – usually the best chance for one of ours – to get in. I do think a cap on the maximum number of runners for a trainer or owner, or both, might well need to be an interim measure before trainers here totally pull up the white flag.

Dan Skelton, Ben Pauling and a few others have stepped forward to bolster the long-established leaders Nicky Henderson and Paul Nicholls. Irishman Fergal O’Brien is well entrenched in Gloucestershire and all five of those talented men had winners over the three days last week.

In a way the £500,000 first prize, along with £200,000, £100,000 and £65,000 for the next three places does nothing for the race, except in enabling people to say it’s the biggest prize in UK jump racing. So what?! It’s our race and we need our top and highly skilled trainers and their owners to have a shot of winning it.

A first step would be to let owners know that the old antipathy against running in the race for fear of an early end to a jumper’s career is no longer valid. If it always gives an imbalance to the trainers' championship too, that’s a side effect. When Aidan O’Brien habitually contests the flat trainers' title with the Gosdens and others, he needs to win Classics and numerous Group 1 races to make up for the numerical advantage of his British counterparts. There’s no such balancing act in jumping – it’s Willie first, the rest nowhere!

On the point of non-runners, Gordon Elliott reduced his big team by one via a vet’s certificate, but Chambard, trained by Venetia William, was withdrawn on a self-certificate. For a normal race I would say the self-cert rule is fine, but for a race like the Grand National, surely not. For contests of a certain value and status, specific reasons should be required. Two horses were denied the chance to run for the big pot and I bet their connections are fuming!

- TS