Posts

Sat TV Trends: 9th March 2019

It's the weekend before Cheltenham so the quality of racing always takes a bit of a backseat. This weekend the ITV cameras head to Sandown with the Imperial Cup their feature, and don't forget the winner of the race will be up for a £100k bonus if they go onto land any Cheltenham Festival race next week. We've also got two LIVE races on the AW from Wolverhampton, with their Lincoln Trial the main event.

As always, we are  on hand with all the key trends and stats for the LIVE ITV races. Use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profiles of past winners.

 

Sandown Horse Racing Trends

1.50 – European Breeders´ Fund Matchbook VIP "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f173y ITV

16/16 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
15/16 – Carried 10-11 or more
13/16 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/16 – Rated 129 or less
13/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Irish bred
11/16 – Returned 8/1 or less in the betting
12/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Aged 6 years-old
8/16 – Had won over this trip before
5/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Won by trainer Nicky Henderson
2/16 – Won by trainer Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/16 – Winning favourites
1/16 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

 

2.25 – Matchbook Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV

16/16 – Had won no more than twice over hurdles before
15/16 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
15/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Carried 10-13 or less
13/16 – Rated 124 or higher
12/16 – Aged 6 or younger
11/16 – Carried 10-7 or less
10/16 – Winners that went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) before
10/16 – Finished in the top two last time out
9/16 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/16 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/16 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
5/16 – French bred
5/16 – Had raced at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there before
5/16 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
2/16 - Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies (2 of last 3)
1/16 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
Trainer Paul Nicholls has NEVER won the race
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 11/1

 

3.00 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y ITV

Your first 30 days for just £1

15/15 – Had won at least one NH Flat race before
14/15 – 1ST or 2ND last time out
13/15 – Returned 17/2 or shorter in the betting
11/15– Won last time out
10/15 – Had won just once before (NH Flat race)
9/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
8/15 – Aged 5 years-old
1/15 – Winning favourites
9 of the last 12 winners were aged 5 or 6 years-old
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 13/2

 

3.35 – Matchbook Racing Is Commission Free Handicap Chase Cl3 3m37y ITV

14/16 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
14/16 – Carried 11-1 or more
14/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 -  Rated between 125-134
13/16 – Aged 8 or older
12/16 – Had won between 1-4 times over fences
12/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
10/16 – Irish bred
8/16 – Returned 7/2 or shorter in the betting
4/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/16 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Oliver Sherwood
Pete The Feat (9/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 9/2

 

Wolverhampton Horse Racing Trends

2.05 – Sunracing.co.uk Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y ITV

15/16 – Aged 6 or younger
14/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
14/16 – Won over a mile (or further) before
13/16– Won at least three times before
13/16 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
9/16 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
9/16 – Came from stall 8 or higher
8/16 – Came from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/16 – Aged 5 years-old
7/16 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
5/16 – Won last time out
5/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by the Richard Hannon yard
2/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
Big Country (8/1) won the race 12 months ago
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 6/1

 

3.15 – Sunracing.co.uk Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y ITV

11/12 – Had won over 7f before
10/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had won at least 4 times before
10/12 – Placed favourites
9/12 – Had raced within the last 3 weeks
9/12 – Rated 104 or higher
7/12 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/12 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/12 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
6/12 – Unplaced last time out
6/12 – Had won at Wolverhampton before
4/12 – Winning favourite
2/12 – Trained by Marco Botti
Second Thought (8/11) won the race in 2018

 

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 20 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

GET INVOLVED TODAY

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

Sat TV Trends: 7th March 2015

This Saturday the C4 cameras are at Sandown, with the Imperial Cup their main race, plus they also head to Wolverhampton for two races that include the Lincoln Handicap Trial.

 

Sandown (RUK/C4)

2.00 – European Breeders´ Fund William Hill "National Hunt" Novices´ Handicap Hurdle Final (Grade 3) Cl1 2m4f CH4

12/12 – Won no more than twice over hurdles previously
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
11/12 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
10/12 – Officially rated 128 or less
10/12 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
9/12 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
9/12 – Priced 8/1 or less in the betting
9/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Aged 6 years-old
8/12 – Favourites unplaced
6/12 – Won over this trip previously
4/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Won by AP McCoy
2/12 – Won by Nicky Henderson
2/12 – Won by the Pipe yard
1/12 – Favourites
1/12 – Winners that went onto run at Cheltenham (3rd Martin Pipe)
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 10/1

TRAINER STATS:
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his hurdlers here
John Quinn is 2 from 5 with his hurdlers here
Gary Moore is just 7 from 75 with his hurdlers here
Oliver Sherwood is just 1 from 24 with his hurdlers here

2.35 – williamhill.com Mobile Cheltenham Money Back 2nd Handicap Chase Cl3 3m110y CH4

11/12 – Carried 11-1 or more in weight
11/12 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
10/12 -  Officially Rated between 125-134
10/12 – From the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Won between 1-4 times over fences
9/12 – Aged 8 or older
8/12 – Favourites placed
8/12 – Unplaced in their last race
7/12 – Priced7/2 or shorter in the betting
7/12 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
6/12 – Irish bred
4/12 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/12 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
2/12 – Ridden by AP McCoy
2/12 – Favourites (1 joint)
1/12 – Won their last race
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 11/2

TRAINER STATS:
Lucy Wadham is 2 from 3 with her chasers here
Alan King has a 20% record with his chasers here

3.10 – William Hill Imperial Cup Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y CH4

12/12 – Won no more than twice over hurdles previously
11/12 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
11/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
9/12 – Aged 6 or younger
9/12 – Officially Rated 124 or higher
8/12 – Won over at least 2m1f (hurdles) previously
8/12 – Placed in the top two last time out
8/12 – Carried 10-7 or less in weight
8/12 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or more
8/12 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival (1 winner, Gaspara - Fred Winter)
6/12 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2), Sandown (2) or Ascot (2) last time out
6/12 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
6/12 – Won their last race
5/12 – French bred
5/12 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
5/12 – Won by the Pipe stable (have won it 9 times in all)
5/12 – Favourites
5/12 – Ran at Sandown (hurdles) before – 2 had won there previously
1/12 – Won by an Irish-trained horse
The average winning SP in the last 12 renewals is 9/1

Your first 30 days for just £1

TRAINER STATS:
Nicky Henderson has a 27% record with his hurdlers here
John Quinn is 2 from 5 with his hurdlers here
Venetia Williams is just 3 from 39 with his hurdlers here
Oliver Sherwood is just 1 from 24 with his hurdlers here

3.45 – EBF Stallions/TBA Mares´ Standard Open National Hunt Flat Race (Listed) Cl1 2m110y CH4

11/11 – Won at least one NH Flat race previously
10/11 – 1ST or 2ND in their last race
9/11 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
9/11 – Priced 17/2 or shorter in the betting
8/11 – Won just once before (NH Flat race)
8/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Aged 5 years-old
2/11 – Ridden by AP McCoy
1/11 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 13/2

TRAINER STATS:
Nick Williams is 1-from-1 with his NH Flat runners here

 

Wolverhampton (ATR/C4)

2.15 – Ladbrokes Lady Wulfruna Stakes (AW Championship Fast-Track Qualifier) (Listed Race) Cl1 7f32y CH4

7/8 – Won over 7f previously
7/8 – Won at least 4 times previously
7/8 – Priced 9/1 or shorter in the betting
6/8 – Favourites placed
6/8 – Ran within the last 3 weeks
6/8 – Drawn in stall 7 or higher
6/8 – Rated 105 or higher
5/8 – Ran at Lingfield last time out
5/8 – Won at Wolverhampton previously
5/8 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
5/8 – Unplaced in their last race
3/8 – Favourites
2/8 – Trained by Marco Botti
The average winning SP in the last 8 renewals is 13/2

TRAINER STATS:
Sir Mark Prescott has a 29% record with his older horses here
Charlie Appleby has a 50% record with his older horses here
Roger Varian has a 45% record with his older horses here

2.50 – Ladbrokes Lincoln Trial Handicap Cl2 1m141y CH4

12/12 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/12 – Won over a mile previously
11/12 – Aged 6 or younger
10/12– Won at least three times previously
9/12 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/12 – Raced at Lingfield last time out
7/12 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
7/12 – Came from stall 9 or higher
7/12 – Favourites placed
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
5/12 – Won at Wolverhampton previously
3/12 – Won their last race
2/12 – Trained by Richard Hannon
2/12 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
2/12 – Ridden by Richard Hughes
2/12 – Favourites
The average winning SP in the last 10 renewals is 7/1

TRAINER STATS:
Sir Mark Prescott has a 29% record with his older horses here
Mark Johnston has a 29% record with his older horses here
Charlie Appleby has a 50% record with his older horses here
Roger Varian has a 45% record with his older horses here

 

 

 

 

Trainers Quotes

FREE TRIAL: TRAINERS-QUOTES.COM: GET THE BEST INFO FROM 18 TOP STABLES EACH DAY - Sent direct to your in-box!

More great winners this week..............................

"Tidestream: The favourite is out so that helps - Fourth run and first time into handicap company helps too - looks on a fair opening mark. We take off 5lbs too so that reduces his big weight. Has ability and should find this easier than recent runs. Will win races, but a bit harder to read this one so far with what he's doing at home, so we'll know a bit more after today."
Tim Vaughan 02/03/15 1st 10/1

"Azabitmour - Should improve for the step up in trip and Tom O Brien gets on with him well. Possibly not the best handicapped horse in the race but working well and hopeful of a good run."
Suzy Smith 02/03/15 1st 9/2

"Royale Django: Toby Lerone will be hard to beat - but the rest of the places up for grabs. We won on debut with this horse so has ability and was a bit better last time. Not a lot of depth in the race so will be hoping to land 2nd or 3rd here."
Tim Vaughan 02/03/15 1st 5/1

"Smidgen: Would have needed the run last time - not 100% sure Wolverhampton will suit, but has an okay draw (5) so hopeful."
Ed de Giles 02/03/15 1st 9/2

Imperial Cup Preview and Tips

Regal Encore will be out of his box this afternoon!

Regal Encore will be out of his box this afternoon!

The Imperial Cup is a Grade 3 handicap hurdle run over two miles at Sandown Park, on the Saturday before Cheltenham. It has long carried a large bonus fund for any horse able to win it and then go on to double up at the Cheltenham Festival, and this bonus has been claimed by the likes of Olympian, Blowing Wind and Gaspara, all trained by either Martin, or son David, Pipe.

Imperial Cup Trends

Thanks for horseracebase for these stats.

Thirteen of the last seventeen winners (76%) either finished on the podium last time (eleven), or were pulled up (two), from 58% of the runners.

Very lightly raced horses, especially four- and five-year olds, have the best record. That age bracket has won nine of the last seventeen (53%) from just 26% of the runners. They are also responsible for twenty placed horses (30% of the places).

Only two horses have shouldered more than 11-01 to win the Imperial Cup and, indeed, twelve of the last seventeen winners carried feather weights of 10-07 or less. That's 71% of the winners coming from the 42% of lowest weighted runners.

Related to weight, fourteen of the last seventeen winners (82%) were rated 130 or lower, from 68% of the runners.

In terms of absence from the track, although seven winners were returning within 30 days of their last start, the best winners-to-runners ratio comes from those off a break of 31 to 120 days. They collectively claimed ten of the seventeen wins (59%) from 114 runners (35%).

So we may be best suited to looking for a lightly raced, lightly weighted, last time out placer, absent from the track for between one and three months. If that's true, the four-year-old Harristown has a very attractive profile: he's rated 130; has 10-06 taking in his rider's claim; last ran 30 days ago; is rated 130; and won his last race. Oh, and he's 22/1.

Imperial Cup Form Preview

Your first 30 days for just £1

David Pipe has won this twice, and his father Martin won it six times. From those eight victories, the Pipe's have gone on to land the Cheltenham bonus three times, which is an excellent strike rate when you consider the ferocity of both this and Festival handicaps!

This time Pipe saddles top weight Swing Bowler - a talented mare engaged in the Mares' Hurdle on Tuesday - and Baltimore Rock, for whom the former may be aiming to anchor the weights. Call me cynical, but it will come as no surprise if Swing Bowler is a non-runner today...

In any case, Baltimore Rock is the interesting one, having won two of his last three runs on heavy ground. Despite costing 160,000 guineas, he has a rating of just 125 and is clearly progressive. That's the sort you need to win a race like this and follow up at the Festival and, with a win in a bumper on good to soft, the ground at Cheltenham - and here for that matter - should not be the reason he fails to land a double.

As well as his two winners, David Pipe has also had four further placed horses from his eleven Imperial Cup runners. Baltimore Rock's chance is hugely respected.

But he's not the only horse trying to set up a lucrative bonus swoop next week: both Vibrato Valtat and Regal Encore bid to do likewise.

Vibrato Valtat is going the right way apace, and is just a pound higher than when winning a Listed novices' hurdle at Exeter last time. That was a small field and this will be a very different kettle of fish, but he had plenty in hand that day and I admit to having had a small bet on him in the County Hurdle, a race for which his price will truncate markedly should he claim this.

However, I don't believe either of the above pair is the best handicapped horse in the race. That surely is Regal Encore, last year's Champion Bumper runner-up. Trained by Anthony Honeyball, he's been the subject of some 'interesting' rides from AP McCoy this season, when given too much to do behind both Garde La Victoire at Aintree and Seeyouatmidnight at Hexham.

Garde La Victoire has gone on to win again, and wasn't beaten far in the Grade 1 Tolworth last time, while Seeyouatmidnight has won twice since, including the Grade 2 Rendlesham Hurdle. When you consider that Tony McCoy may actually be trying today, and further that Regal Encore wasn't right - as so many of Honeyball's horses have not been right this season - that day, then he has a MASSIVE chance of 130 IF he's healthy.

Some readers will know that geegeez syndicates a horse in training with Anthony Honeyball, and in his recent communications he's seemed a lot happier with the health of his string. He has an army of entries in the coming days, but there is no evidence from the track yet that the illness in the yard has passed. That's the risk.

But at 9/2 on a horse mooted for the Neptune before the start of the season, and a Champion Bumper runner-up as well, I think it's a risk worth taking, and I've had a fair bet. If he wins in here, and gets into the Martin Pipe, I think he'll have an extremely solid chance there, as this trip is on the short side for him. That is mitigated by the fact that this hard puller should travel much more kindly off the stronger pace today.

The rest look to have either too much weight or not enough ability, and I think it lies between the above.

Imperial Cup Tips

Win selection:
Regal Encore 3.8/1 Betbright

Obvious dangers:
Vibrato Valtat, Baltimore Rock

Best each way:
Harristown 22/1 BetVictor (BOG)

Huge priced possible place play:
Skint 50/1 bet365 (BOG)

Best Imperial Cup Bookie Offer

Betbright are offering customers who open a new account with them today a £30 risk-free bet AND a free £20 bet to use on Day 1 of Cheltenham. Full details here.

imperial_cup_Twitter-v2