Tag Archive for: Irish 2000 Guineas

Monday Musings: Perfectly Precise

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You can routinely analyse form as pounds for lengths, but as yesterday’s Irish 1,000 Guineas proved, expecting past form to be repeated is not always as Precise as experts might think it to be, writes Tony Stafford.

On a weekend where Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore had previously got everything right in tandem, including Saturday’s Irish 2,000 Guineas with Gstaad, along came Precise to make a monkey of Coolmore’s number one for the second time in less than a month.

Precise, a filly Ryan had never previously ridden owing to last autumn’s lengthy injury spell, was his mount as the 9/5 favourite in the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket. She finished only seventh as stable-companion True Love, for one race at least, dispelled any doubts about her stamina for a Classic mile.

True Love, as did Precise, had experience at the top level on her side but also proven fitness with a run this year. Ryan instead partnered the filly that O’Brien had referred to in the most glowing of terms as she went through the grades last autumn. Precise’s preparation for the Rowley Mile had been interrupted this spring, but despite this, confidence in her remained strong.

The Coolmore team never shrinks from giving a back-up to their number one contender in the big races and now at the Curragh Precise was the perceived number two. The reasoning is, if one can’t win it, maybe the other one can. As somebody very wise used to say, it’s not what you lose, it’s what you win, and Coolmore has not been for many years over-protective of its top horses.

The race split into two groups, and Ryan on the far side on True Love sat close to Godolphin’s Abashiri, who had been ahead of Precise in fifth at Newmarket. When Moore asked for her effort, she smoothly got to William Buick’s mount but took a while to settle the issue. Then, from the back of the stands-side sextet, Wayne Lordan, as on True Love at Newmarket, upset the expected Ballydoyle order.

Precise was regarded by O’Brien last year as one of the best juvenile fillies he had ever trained. It must be a source of great pride that she is a product of his family’s Whisperview Trading Ltd breeding operation. The speed she showed here to cut back the front two in half a furlong and then power two-and-a half lengths clear was truly exhilarating. Aidan’s estimate of her ability and potential clearly wasn’t misguided.

At Newmarket, many were surprised that True Love, who with the precocity of being a five-furlong Queen Mary Royal Ascot winner hardly had the profile of a Guineas filly, lasted as well up the hill at HQ as she did. Here, it was Precise with extravagant acceleration that quickly made up the ground and burst clear. Now they have two more Classic winning fillies to grace their pedigrees for the coming years.

I know one person who will now be quaking in his boots as he awaits news of which of the Oaks, French Oaks or the Coronation Stakes over a mile at Royal Ascot will be the next option for Precise. How about the Oaks followed by the Coronation? And Aidan still has the facile French 1,000 winner Diamond Necklace to sort out a programme for. Most people seem to think it will be back to France for the Prix de Diane (French Oaks). You can’t make it up, as a pal of mine was saying at Yarmouth the other night.

He (no, not my friend at Yarmouth) has a decent bet at 100/1 about the existing Oaks favourite Amelia Earhart, but he must be in trepidation whether the Cheshire Oaks winner will have to contend with Precise. It will not be unprecedented for a dyed in the wool mile and a half filly to be usurped at Epsom by a speedier animal, even though you must have stayed if you win an Oaks - or a Derby for that matter. After all, they thought City Of Troy wouldn’t stay, but class and acceleration were his weapons.

The generations of Galileo colts and fillies have finally gone while probably his most potent successor as a stallion of potential champions, Wootton Bassett, is also no longer with us. His progeny will be available for a year or two more.

Market moves are always instructive at this time of year and the flow of money that has brought Wootton Bassett’s son Constitution River to the head of the Derby betting at 5/2, replacing his fellow Chester winner (Vase) Benvenuto Cellini at the head of some books has to be significant. Oath (Henry Cecil) in 1999 and Kris Kin, Michael Stoute, four years later, were the most recent Dee Stakes winners that went on to Epsom glory.

Constitution River had a concrete boost to what had seemed a bloodless seven-length margin in the ten-furlong test when the third horse home, Golden Story, won Saturday’s Cocked Hat Stakes at Goodwood for Karl Burke.

I know the ground can be soft at Chester, but it was still no mean feat on quick going for Constitution River to record comfortably the fastest-ever time for the race since its reduction to the present distance in the 1970s. Considering the strength of either homebreds from Coolmore with its colossal stock of top-class mares, or such as Whisperview Trading and other close, long-standing associates, it has become an unequal task for stables with the odd top class horse to stave off their power.

It is something of a surprise, then, that Constitution River comes from a French nursery and M V Magnier was able to buy him at €400k. It’s not that they are merely clever with producing and improving stallions – they also know how to work the sales.

Aidan’s love for Chester – he’s won the Vase 12 times and the Dee Stakes 13, including eight of the last nine – is well documented, and I’ve enjoyed seeing quite a few of them at close hand apart from missing the last two or three.

The winners haven’t always gone on to be stars at the top end of racing, but the 2024 scorer Capulet did take part in quite a momentous race in Sha Tin yesterday. Romantic Warrior, the eight-year-old who vies with sprinter Ka Ying Rising as the favourite horse in Hong Kong even though his younger rival deservedly had the edge on ratings as the top international horse of 2025, won the 24th race of his 31-run career.

It took him a long time to win the 1m4f turf event, James McDonald having to make up ground on two leaders turning for home. One of these, the former Capulet, now named Romantic Thor in Hong Kong, finished fourth as Romantic Warrior took his world leading career earnings beyond £28 million.

What Aidan didn’t win over the two days at the Curragh, sons Joseph and Donnacha filled in with three victories between them. Last month Donnacha took the four-year-old sprinter Comanche Brave on a speculative trip to Hong Kong to take on Ka Ying Rising. He finished fifth, eight lengths behind the home champion, a project which brought a handsome £80k reward for his first run of the year.

To show just how adaptable a stallion Wootton Bassett is, he is the sire of Comanche Brave, now the easy winner of the Group 3 Greenlands Stakes over six furlongs on Saturday. Good stallions get winners at all distances, subject to the quality of the mares. While it’s never a Precise rule of breeding, Coolmore seems always to have the bases covered. We’ll see just how well, when they collect the Derby and Oaks double. Mr Editor, I hope Precise stays away!

- TS

Monday Musings: Galloping Through The Classics

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Four weeks after the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket and seven days after the Irish 2000 Guineas, with all the recognised trials sorted in between, we come on Saturday to Derby Day, writes Tony Stafford.

It’s as early as it can be, and for those stables yet to strike form, it’s always a frightening thought that within 46 days of what most professionals believe is the true starting point of the 2024 turf season – day one of Newmarket’s Craven meeting – we will have knocked off four-fifths of the UK Classic complement.

We’ve had Chester, Lingfield, the French 2000 and 1000 Guineas, York and the two Irish Guineas this past weekend. Sometimes we get the odd one coming on to Epsom for the Derby or Oaks from the two Irish Guineas races. Realistically, though, with the races only one week apart, it seems an abrupt tactic to switch from one mile up the Curragh to the 12 furlongs with its twists, gradients, and cambers of the Derby course.

In times gone by there was also Goodwood, a three-day midweek fixture, following on from York’s Dante meeting.  In 1979 Major Dick Hern had two fancied runners at Epsom, the Queen’s Milford, and Sir Michael Sobell’s Troy, with stable jockey Willie Carson staying loyal to the latter – seen as traitorous in some parts.

Troy had begun his three-year-old season with a narrow win in the Classic Trial at Sandown, a performance that Hern thought needed another race to bring him to the boil. To wait for the Predominate Stakes, Goodwood’s colts’ trial, was reckoned in most quarters to be a risky policy, with so short a time between that race and the Derby.

Nowadays, Goodwood’s two Listed races for three-year-olds, one for colts/geldings and the other for fillies, are both staged on the same day as they were on Saturday. At first glance, the narrow win of Meydaan, third behind Ambiente Friendly in the Lingfield Derby Trial, might have been regarded as a boost for the form. I didn’t see the race live so took that as evidence backing my recent excessive praise for the Lingfield success of the James Fanshawe colt.

However, a review of the race replay told me otherwise. At least two in the seven-horse field could have finished much nearer. Space Legend, the William Haggas-trained favourite after two promising runs, was a fast-closing second after extricating himself from crowding and could almost certainly have won had he been able to start his challenge a little earlier. More worryingly for the form, fourth home Lavender Hill Mob also might have finished much closer.

This Michael Bell horse is rated a modest 79 having won a handicap last time. It’s hard to see how Meydaan, always in the clear on Saturday, deserves to go higher than his present 97. There’s no realistic scope for an Ambiente Friendly upward rating adjustment in tomorrow’s listings. I thought he ran a brilliant race at Lingfield, but yesterday morning, Rab Havlin, who will be replacing his Lingfield winning jockey Callum Shepherd this week, was worrying about the chance of soft ground at Epsom. “He has such a daisy-cutting action”, said Havlin, after working on Newmarket’s Limekilns yesterday.

Nowadays, the Predominate, downgraded some time ago to a Listed race, is known as the Cocked Hat Stakes and I think yesterday’s form could be put in a cocked hat! In 1979, Troy won that race by seven lengths and followed up by an identical margin in a devastating performance at Epsom. He ended as Racehorse of the Year, despite not matching his best form when third in the Arc having won the Juddmonte at York in August.

The old timers always used to say, fourth in the Guineas, first in the Derby, and as Paul Cole would be quick to remind us, that was the route taking by his and Faad Salman’s Generous in 1991. This year’s fourth, the Clive Cox-trained, Jeff-Smith-owned Ghostwriter does have a Derby entry – the Irish version at the end of next month.

He, along with the first three home at Newmarket, headed up by Godolphin’s impressive winner Notable Speech, has the one-mile St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot as the next step on the agenda.

There is already some serious Classic solidity to the Newmarket form with Rosallion and Haatem, respectively second and third for Richard Hannon behind Notable Speech, making it a stable one-two in the Irish Classic on Saturday.

The only defeated horse in the 2000 Guineas expected to be running at Epsom – we can still have a surprise supplementary today - is the present favourite City Of Troy. He was a humbled ninth of eleven at Newmarket, 17 lengths behind the winner.

Since last week’s words here, Economics, the runaway Dante winner at York for William Haggas, has not been supplemented for the Derby, his wishes, probably reluctantly, acceded to by his owners.

With River Tiber finishing just behind the Hannon pair in third on Saturday, at least there is a semblance of hope for anyone with long-standing vouchers on City Of Troy for the Derby. There’s no doubt that he has always stood far above his stable-mates at Ballydoye. Interestingly, the one reason I’ve heard Aidan O’Brien giving for the flop last time is: “I treated him too much like a god over the winter.” Even God will have had to do some proper work, maybe even on Sundays, since!

O’Brien of course also had the top juvenile filly of 2023 in Opera Singer, a status guaranteed by her victory in the Prix Marcel Boussac on Arc Day at Longchamp last autumn. Like City Of Troy, she is by unbeaten US Triple Crown winner Justify, and all the assumptions as to her and her stablemate’s stamina possibilities are presumably based on Justify’s 12-furlong win in the Belmont Stakes, third leg of the US Triple Crown.

If City Of Troy comes back as Auguste Rodin did in last year’s Derby, it would still be no guarantee of champion racehorse status at the end of the season. Economics has the imminent target of the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, a race that has projected its winner to stardom in the past. Shareef Dancer, trained by Sir Michael Stoute, had a quick follow-up in the Irish Derby back in the 1980’s.

There are four of the six horses outclassed by Economics still entered before today’s five-day stage. Ancient Wisdom and War Rooms were second and third at York, and victory for either would propel Economics into the “unbeatable” firmament – just as last year’s Dewhurst romp did for City Of Troy. I will leave the predictions and the talking to the horses on Saturday – I’ve had more than enough to say already. I’m just hoping for a clean race and a worthy winner.

To show that unpredictability in racing at Classic level is not exclusively for these shores, yesterday’s Japanese Derby (Tokyo Yushun) carried a winner’s prize of more than £1.8 million. Hot favourite at 6/5 was the previously unbeaten Japanese 2000 Guineas winner Justin Milano, but he had to give best in the straight to two-length winner Danon Decile, who started at 46/1!

- TS