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Khuzaam claims impressive Mile verdict

Khuzaam blitzed the field with an impressive performance to win the Bombardier All-Weather Mile Championships Conditions Stakes at Lingfield.

Hitting the front on the turn for home, Khuzaam (6-4 favourite) quickly put daylight between himself and his rivals with a devastating turn of foot.

Jack Mitchell sat on the heels of the pace-making Canagat in the early stages before making his move.

The response from the Roger Varian-trained five-year-old was immediate and he romped away to score by five lengths from Mums Tipple. Bless Him stayed on for third place, another length away.

Mitchell said: “That was nice and smooth. His work has improved a lot since he won at Chelmsford and the gelding operation has obviously helped him.

“I think he has a lot of class – and he has miles left on the clock, so we will see where he can go.

“It could not have gone any better.

“Roger and I spoke this morning – Khuzaam is a big horse and not one you’d want to drag back, and the race being here at Lingfield meant that we wanted to utilise that, really, even though we were going up a furlong.

“Once I asked him to change gear, he put the race to bed very quickly. I think there is improvement in him.

“Thank you to Shadwell and to Roger for sticking with me. It is very nice to have a winner in these colours.”

Stat of the Day, 11th September 2020

Thursday's pick was...

3.25 Chepstow : Under Curfew @ 9/2 BOG 3rd at 9/2 (Raced keenly, chased leaders in centre, led over 1f out, headed close home, lost 2nd at post)

Friday's pick runs in the...

5.00 Salisbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Normally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG

...in an 8-runner, Class 3,  Flat Handicap Nursery for 2yo fillies over 6f on Good ground worth £9,704 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

We start with the unique Geegeez interactive racecard...

...and a 2 yr old filly (obviously) who has won twice and placed twice in her five outings beyond 5 furlongs, only failing to make the frame on a three-length defeat at a higher grade at Goodwood six weeks ago. She's 1152 at 6f, has a win and a place from two good ground runs, is 131 at 7-28 days rest and tops the Geegeez Speed ratings today.

Jockey Jack Mitchell's 12-month record here at Salisbury is shown above, whilst over the last 16 months, his numbers here are...

including of relevance today...

  • 7/25 (28%) for 15.94pts (+63.8%) in races worth less than £10k
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 2.35pts (+18%) at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 4/12 933.3%) for 15.81pts (+131.7%) on 2 yr olds
  • and 3/13 (23.1%) for 22.59pts (+173.8%) on female runners...

...whilst trainer Mark Johnston is also no slouch around this neck of the woods either. He doesn't actually send many runners here, but they do well enough for at least a second glance, as since 2014, they are...

with a near 1 in 6 strike rate producing a yield just shy of 10%. A satisfactory return for a long-term investment, I suppose, but it's not sexy or exciting, is it? So where should we focus our Johnston/Salisbury betting, Chris?

Well, you could stick to 2 year olds running at Classes 1 to 3, sent off at Evens to 16/1, who are...

...which almost doubles our strike rate, multiplies our profit more than fives times over and also includes of note today...

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 30.18pts (+232.2%) in fields of 5-10 runners
  • 4/7 (57.1%) for 12.09pts (+172.7%) were placed LTO
  • 2/7 (28.6%) for 22.46pts (+320.9%) at Class 3
  • and 2/6 (33.3%) for 20.65pts (+344.2%) over this 6f C&D...

...whilst in fields of 5-10 runners, horses who made the frame LTO are also 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 12.09pts (+172.7% ROI), including a win and a place from two Class 3 efforts and a win and a place from two over this 6f C&D...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Julie Johnston @ 7/2 BOG as was widely available at 7.45am Friday, but as always please check your own BOG status (*some firms are not BOG until later in the morning)To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 5.00 Salisbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th March 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

3.00 Exeter : Ballybreen @ 10/3 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Prominent, led after 3rd, headed 11th, rallied 4 out, chased winner next, kept on under pressure) : you know your luck's out when you get done by a 66/1 shot!

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

4.30 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Your first 30 days for just £1

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG

...in a 7-runner, Class 3, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 6f on polytrack worth £7,246 to the winner...

Why?...

This 3yr old gelding has been in immaculate form since switching from turf to A/W last year. Fifth on Good to Firm ground on his race debut at Newmarket last June and then switched to the A/W where he is now 4 from 4, all at this 6f trip on left handed courses including...

  • 3 after 1-4 weeks rest, 3 for jockey Jack Mitchell and 3 this year
  • 2 in handicaps, 2 on Polytrack, 2 at Lingfield and therefore 2 over course and distance (inc LTO)
  • and 1 at Class 3 (LTO)

In addition to those excellent numbers, his trainer Simon Crisford does really well at this venue from a small, carefully selected number of runners sent here, about whom the market is often a good guide, as his handicappers sent off at odds of 7/4 to 6/1 are 10 from 32 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+44.1% ROI) profit on the A/W here, including of note/relevance today...

  • 9/22 (40.9%) for 17.02pts (+77.4%) in races worth less than £8,000
  • 8/20 (40%) for 12.48pts (+62.4%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 7/15 (46.7%) for 14.51pts (+96.7%) with 3 yr olds
  • 6/15 (40%) for 12.34pts (+82.25%) with male runners
  • 6/14 (42.9%) for 11.97pts (+85.5%) since the start of 2018
  • 4/6 (66.6%) for 11.2pts (+186.6%) over this 6f C&D
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 5.74pts (+82%) in 3yo only races
  • 3/6 (50%) for 7.02pts (+117%) with LTO winners
  • and 2/4 (50%) for 5.08pts (+127%) with previous course and distance winners

I don't really want to dilute the dataset too much to create an angle, but you might be interested to know that 3yr olds racing for less than £8k within a month of their last run are 6 from 9 (66.6% SR) for 13.97pts (+155.2% ROI), including males at 3/3 (100%) for 8.28pts (+276%)...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Will To Win @ 3/1 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Unibet at 8.05am Wednesday, with some 10/3 elsewhere at Hills & Spreadex but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 4.30 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!