Posts

Stat of the Day, 22nd September 2018

Friday's Pick was...

8.50 Newcastle : Windforpower @ 4/1 BOG 4th at 11/2 (Tracked leaders, ridden over 1f out, kept on same pace under pressure final furlong, no impression) 

Saturday's pick runs in the...

2.45 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Florencio @ 7/2 BOG  

In a 10-runner, Class 4, Flat Handicap for 3yo+ over 7f on Good ground, worth £6469 to the winner...

Why?

This 5 yr old gelding was a winner on yard debut 16 days ago, when scoring comfortably by 2 lengths over 7f at Laytown earlier in the month off today's mark of 75 taking his record over the last six races to 3 wins and 2 places including a formline of 11251 over 7f.

After his recent move, he's now with Jamie Osborne, whose LTO winners are 66/325 (20.3% SR) for 36.5pts (+11.2% ROI) profit since the start of 2010 and these include...

  • at odds of evens to 11/2 : 49/179 (27.4%) for 19.4pts (+10.9%)
  • since the start of 2016 : 22/123 (17.9%) for 24.6pts (+20%)
  • over 7f : 15/62 (24.2%) for 35.3pts (+56.9%)
  • in September/October : 13/59 (22%) for 48.5pts (+82.1%)
  • and when using a claimer jockey : 14/54 (25.9%) for 46pts (+85.2%)

Ryan Rossa is in the saddle today, he claims 3lbs and now rides for Jamie for the 15th time, having won three times from the previous fourteen (21.4% SR) for profits of 4pts at an ROI of 28.5% so far...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Florencio @ 7/2 BOG, a price offered by Coral & Ladbrokes at 5.40pm on Friday evening. To see what your preferred bookie will give you later...

...click here for the betting on the 2.45 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2018

Friday's Pick was...

4.20 Wolverhampton : Conkering Hero @ 5/2 BOG 4th at 13/8 (Led early, tracked leader until over 11f out, hung left over 1f out, staying on same pace when bumped well inside final furlong, beaten by just over a length)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.40 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOG

In an 8-runner, Class 2, All-Weather Handicap for 4yo+ over 6f on Polytrack worth £25876 to the winner... 

Why?

A 5yr old gelding who has 3 wins and 5 places from 11 runs on Polytrack including 3 wins and 3 places over 6f and is now back on his last winning mark from when he won a similar Class 2 A/W handicap over this trip at Lingfield.

His trainer, Jamie Osborne is in reasonable enough form having landed 5 winners from 24 (20.8% SR) over the last 30 days, whilst since the start of 2016, he is 26 from 152 (17.1% SR) for 51.8pts (+34.1% ROI) here at Chelmsford, from which...

  • those racing within 15 days of their last run are 12/72 (16.6%) for 21.8pts (+30.3%)
  • over 6f : 12/59 (20.3%) for 19.5pts (+33.1%)
  • those ridden by Dougie Costello : 9/49 (18.4%) for 34.8pts (+71%)
  • and racing over 6f within 15 days : 6/31 (19.4%) for 22.3pts (+71.8%)

Whilst more generally in UK A/W handicaps over 5f to 8.5f since the start of 2013, horses beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO 2 to 5 days ago are 161/724 (22.2% SR) for 198.1pts (+27.4% ROI), including...

  • 3-7 yr olds : 133/590 (22.5%) for 180.2pts (+30.5%)
  • males : 130/559 (23.3%) for 170.2pts (+30.4%)
  • 3-7 yr old males : 105/438 (24%) for 148.9pts (+34%)
  • on Polytrack : 90/416 (21.6%) for 17.8pts (+28.3%)
  • 3-7 yr olds on Polytrack : 76/339 (22.4%) for 120.4pts (+35.5%)
  • and 3-7 yr old males on Polytrack : 58/244 (23.8%) for 93.2pts (+38.2%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Reckless Endeavour 11/2 BOGa price offered by Betfair & Bet365 at 7.00pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.40 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th January 2018

Thursday's Result :

2.35 Warwick : Crucial Role @ 11/4 BOG 2nd at 11/8 Held up behind leaders, went 3rd before 3rd, chased winner after 3 out, hard ridden approaching last, 1 length down and carried right flat, no impression towards finish...

Next up is Friday's...

12.40 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 6, 3yo A/W Claiming Stakes over 7f on Polytrack worth £3,105 to the winner...

Why?

A 3 yr old colt, whose last six outings have seen him make the frame four times, winning on two occasions and taking his A/W record to the point where it now includes the following of relevance today...

  • 2/4 at odds of 4/1 and shorter
  • 2/4 going left handed
  • 1/2 here at Lingfield
  • 1/1 in a claimer
  • 1/1 at Class 6

His trainer, Jamie Osborne's record on the A/W with horses who last ran 1-7 days earlier stands at 34/145 (23.5% SR) for 29.3pts (+20.2% ROI) since 2012, from which...

  • in non-hcps : 20/69 (29%) for 14.35pts (+20.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 14/50 (28%) for 22.4pts (+44.8%)
  • in January : 9/35 (25.7%) for 4.23pts (+12.1%)
  • over 7f : 7/28 (25%) for 10.83pts (+38.7%)
  • 3rd LTO = 8/23 (34.8%) for 21.9pts (+95.1%)
  • in Claimers : 8/23 (34.8%) for 12.72pts (+55.3%)
  • beaten by 1 to 2 lengths LTO : 6/22 (27.3%) for 13.4pts (+60.8%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 4/16 (25%) for 5.3pts (+33.2)...

...whilst more generally the Osborne / Costello / AW figures are 21/165 (12.7% SR) for 37.7pts (+22.9 ROI) including...

  • 11/70 (15.7%) for 28.14pts (+40.2%) in non-handicaps
  • and 3/11 (27.3%) for 4.33pts (+39.4%) in claimers.

And finally...A/W runners sired by Lope De Vega are 47/204 (23% SR) for 216.7pts at an ROI of 106.2% since the start of 2016, from which...

  • on Polytrack : 23/128 (18%) for 150.5pts (+117.6%)
  • 3 yr olds : 25/101 (24.75%) for 50.8pts (+50.3%)
  • Class 6 : 7/24 (29.2%) for 39.3pts (+163.9%)
  • and at Lingfield : 5/19 (26.3%) for 5pts (+26.3%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 11/4 BOG which was available from SkyBet at 5.40pm on Thursday with Betfred & Totesport matching that price, but non-BOG until the morning. (5/2 BOG was still widely available at 8.00am Friday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 12.40 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG PU at 5/1  Held up towards rear, pushed along before 11th, soon weakened, tailed off and pulled up before 12th

Next up is Monday's...

4.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo Claimer over 9.5f on Tapeta worth £3,396 to the winner...

And a 2yr old Colt trained by Jamie Osborne, whose Class 4/5 runners here at Wolverhampton are 46/244 (18.9% SR) for 84.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit, in respect of today's contest, those 244 runners are...

  • at Class 5 : 38/198 (19.2%) for 45.4pts (+22.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 38/157 (24.2%) for 103.8pts (+66.1%)
  • unplaced LTO : 28/123 (22.8%) for 124.8pts (+101.5%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 11/1 : 27/102 (26.5%) for 104.5pts (+102.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 14/83 (16.9%) for 25.1pts (+30.2%)
  • this year : 11/47 (23.4%) for 22.4pts (+47.6%)
  • over this 9.5f trip : 10/31 (32.3%) for 11pts (+35.5%)
  • in Claimers : 6/20 (30%$) for 4.4pts (+22%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 3/18 (16.7%) for 10.2pts (+56.8%)

He's also by the sire Lope de Vega, whose offspring are 41/186 (22% SR) for 193.8pts (+104.2%) on the All-Weather over the last two years, including...

  • males @ 35/158 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+90.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 21/66 (31.8%) for 63.3pts (+96%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/61 (26.2%) for 31.6pts (+51.8%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 8/47 (17%) for 21.9pts (+46.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Sunday with the same (but non-BOG) also available from Betfred/Totesport. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 18th December 2017

Saturday's Result :

3.20 Doncaster : Virgilio @ 5/1 BOG PU at 5/1  Held up towards rear, pushed along before 11th, soon weakened, tailed off and pulled up before 12th

Next up is Monday's...

4.40 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG

A Class 5, 2yo Claimer over 9.5f on Tapeta worth £3,396 to the winner...

And a 2yr old Colt trained by Jamie Osborne, whose Class 4/5 runners here at Wolverhampton are 46/244 (18.9% SR) for 84.4pts (+34.6% ROI) profit, in respect of today's contest, those 244 runners are...

  • at Class 5 : 38/198 (19.2%) for 45.4pts (+22.9%)
  • 6-30 days since last run : 38/157 (24.2%) for 103.8pts (+66.1%)
  • unplaced LTO : 28/123 (22.8%) for 124.8pts (+101.5%)
  • at odds of 7/2 to 11/1 : 27/102 (26.5%) for 104.5pts (+102.5%)
  • 2 yr olds are 14/83 (16.9%) for 25.1pts (+30.2%)
  • this year : 11/47 (23.4%) for 22.4pts (+47.6%)
  • over this 9.5f trip : 10/31 (32.3%) for 11pts (+35.5%)
  • in Claimers : 6/20 (30%$) for 4.4pts (+22%)
  • and those ridden by Dougie Costello are 3/18 (16.7%) for 10.2pts (+56.8%)

He's also by the sire Lope de Vega, whose offspring are 41/186 (22% SR) for 193.8pts (+104.2%) on the All-Weather over the last two years, including...

  • males @ 35/158 (22.2%) for 143.6pts (+90.9%)
  • on Tapeta : 21/66 (31.8%) for 63.3pts (+96%)
  • at Class 5 : 16/61 (26.2%) for 31.6pts (+51.8%)
  • and 2 yr olds are 8/47 (17%) for 21.9pts (+46.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Carp Kid @ 5/1 BOG which was offered by Bet365 & SkyBet at 5.30pm on Sunday with the same (but non-BOG) also available from Betfred/Totesport. And to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.40 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 10th December 2016

Friday's Result :

2.15 Doncaster : Jac The Legend @ 7/2 BOG PU at 7/2 Chased leaders, hit 5th mistake 10th, ridden after 12th, weakened approaching 14th, tailed off 15th, soon pulled up.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

5.45 Wolverhampton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Boomerang Bob @ 7/1 BOG

Why?

Trainer Jamie Osborne hasn't exactly been sending lots of runners out of late, but he does have 2 winners from 7 in the last week, with 2 of the last three winning.

He also has a decent record here at Wolverhampton, particularly over 5 to 7 furlongs at odds of 2/1 to 8/1, where his runners are 26/105 (24.8% SR) for 42.8pts (+40.8% ROI) profit since the start of 2012.

The yard's horses also seen to go well in A/W handicaps, when ridden by today's jockey, William Carson, As a partnership, they are 14/94 (14.9% SR) for 26.6pts (+28.3% ROI), with male horses running over trips at 5 to 7 furlongs winning 10 of 55 (18.2%) for 40.3pts (+73.3%).

And finally, offspring of the stallion Aussie Rules who are running in an A/W handicap on Tapeta, but didn't run on Tapeta last time out, have won 6 of 47 (12.8% SR) for 21.2pts (+45.2% ROI).

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Boomerang Bob at 7/1 BOG with Betfair Sports who led the way at 8.35pm on Friday. To see your preferred bookies' odds, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 5.45 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2015

Stat of the Day, 15th December 2015

Monday's Result :

1.50 Plumpton : Reblis @ 5/2 BOG 3rd at 9/4 (Tracked leaders, outpaced 13th, plugged on, left a modest 3rd approaching the last)

Tuesday's selection runs in the...

1.00 Southwell :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Noblest @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

This 3yr old filly was a winner here last time out, 33 days ago, over 7 furlongs on her first visit to this venue and also her first run for new trainer Jamie Osborne. She made all that day and pulled clear in the final furlong impressively to win by 8 lengths going away and the manner of that win suggests an extra furlong and an opening mark of 72 are both well within her grasp.

Since 2008, Jamie Osborne's 2 to 4 yr olds running over trips of 5f to a mile in Class 5/6 contests here at Southwell are 20/69 (29% SR) for 6.6pts profit (+9.6% ROI) when sent off at odds of 15/2 and shorter, whilst his fillies make up 9 of those winners from 27 runners (33.3% SR) for level stakes profits of 7.54pts at an ROI of 27.9%.

More telling possibly, are the stats surrounding comfortable LTO winners returning to A/W action relatively quickly, where the general figures show that A/W handicappers racing over 6f to 1m4f, 3 to 45 days after a win by 5 lengths or more are 177/598 (29.6% SR) for 32.7pts (+5.5% ROI) since the start of 2008.

And whilst that 5.5% ROI doesn't quite get my heart racing, when we take a closer look at how those runners equate to this particular contest, there are some interesting (to me, anyway!) angles with decent enough sample sizes we can profit from, namely...

  • those priced at 10/1 and shorter are 176/544 (32.4% SR) for 71.4pts (+13.1% ROI)
  • those who won by 5 to 10 lengths LTO : 109/345 (31.6% SR) for 39.4pts (+11.4% ROI)
  • those now running at 6f to 1m : 93/296 (31.4% SR) for 32.9pts (+11.1% ROI)
  • 3 yr olds are 83/251 (33.1% SR) for 43.7pts (+17.4% ROI)
  • those running 21 to 45 days since their last run are 33/146 (22.6% SR) for 35.8pts (+24.5% ROI)
  • and those running at Southwell are 49/133 (36.8% SR) for 15.7pts (+11.8% ROI)

If you wanted to combine the odds, winning margin, race distance, age and days since run, you could go along these lines for a decent return...

...2 to 6 yr olds priced at 10/1 and shorter running over 6f to 1m 2.5f, 11 to 45 days after a win by 4 to 10 lengths. This will give you 56 winners from 209 runners (26.8% SR) and level stakes profits of 96.8pts at an ROI of 46.3%.

If, like me, you believe Wolverhampton to be a different kettle of fish to the other UK A/W tracks, then omitting that track from the above 209-runner micro-system, you'll be left with 47 winners from 157 runners (28.7% SR) and 101.5pts (+64.7% ROI) profit.

And my recommended bet, based on the above and at prices available at 6.00pm?

A 1pt win bet on Noblest @ 7/2 BOG with Betfair Sportsbook and/or SkyBet to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 1.00 Southwell

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th September 2014

A hat-trick of hat-tricks yesterday, as for the second day in a row we benefited from an excellent well-timed ride from a good jockey.

Just like Andrea Atzeni on Wednesday, Brian Hughes got it spot on at Perth. He basically put Bailey's Concerto to sleep at the rear of the pack and simply bided his time.

Virtually last when not fluent 3 from home, then Brian asked for an effort and had moved into second place by the second last hurdle, before drawing alongside the long-time leader at the last.

This pair pulled well clear of the rest, whilst going at it neck and neck towards the line, but our runner had a little bit extra in reserve and just outlasted the runner-up by just over a length, with the 3rd placed horse a further 24 lengths adrift.

Bailey's Concerto was returned at our advised 3/1 price, adding a further 3pts to September's profits (now +18.33pts) and completed a hat-trick of wins for us this week, a hat-trick of wins for the horse and it meant that Brian Hughes was now 3 from 3 on this runner.

Three on the bounce isn't something we get very often, four is extremely rare, but I'm quietly confident about one in today's...

3.35 Haydock:

With a 4/1 BOG bet on Jamie Osborne's 2 yr old filly La Cuesta, to be ridden by Cam Hardie in this 5f Class 2 Nursery.

Jamie Osborne has never been the most prolific of trainers, but his horses are running pretty well at the moment. Over the last three weeks, he has sent out 22 runners and half of them have been placed with 5 (22.7% SR) going on to win. He has two runners today and La Cuesta has, by far, the best chance of success, as she seeks back to back wins upon her nursery debut.

She was a winner at Wolverhampton last time out (11 days ago)...

Horses running in Haydock handicaps on the back of a win at Wolverhampton last time out have won 16 of 68 races here with that 23.5% strike rate generating 121.5pts profit at an ROI of 178.6%.

Jockey Cam Hardie gets to claim 5lbs today...

Jamie Osborne is one of the better trainers at placing 5lb claiming jockeys onto horses they can win with, or into races they can win! Since 2010, Jamie has used the services of a 5lb claimer in 74 handicap races. 13 winners represents a 17.6% strike rate and the level stakes profits of 70.4pts are worth more than 95 pence on top of every pound wagered.

La Cuesta was sired by Showcasing...

...who is having a really good return from his first set of foals to hit the track. In 2014, his progeny have ran 155 races between them, already clocking up 30 winners (19.4% SR), an excellent strike rate for a first season crop. These winners have helped to amass 126.2pts profit to date at an ROI of 81.4%, but let's dig a little further into these runners, shall we?

From the original 155 offspring above...

Females are 17/83 (20.5% SR) for 127.7pts (+153.8% ROI), whilst...
...those competing at 5 to 6 furlongs have won 29 of 138 races (21% SR) producing 137.9pts (+99.9% ROI) profit.

Those running over 5 to 6 furlongs at priced at 5/1 or shorter have won 23 of 42 races (54.8% SR) for 47.1pts (+112.1% ROI) profits with the females having a record of 13/22 (59.1% SR) for 35.6pts (+161.9% ROI).

La Cuesta showed plenty of promise when 2nd of 14 at Bath on debut in March and was considered good enough to be entered for and subsequently run in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot in just her second start.

She was 7th of 21 that day and far from disgraced in being beaten by 5.5 lengths by some decent sorts. She then ran at York, where she was beaten by three and a half lengths into fourth place, but mitigating factors should be considered.

She looked like she needed the run after almost three months off the track and she was hampered on the run-in. Her fourth and latest run was the outing at Wolverhampton 8 days later and 11 days ago, where she was an easy winner. She didn't hit the front until well inside the final furlong, but had such a turn of foot that she pulled clear to score by five lengths going away.

She doesn't look too badly treated off a mark of 87 for this handicap debut and gets 3lbs (5lb including jockey claims) from the favourite Profitable, who might just struggle to contend with a 6lb rise today.

So, the call is a 1pt win bet on La Cuesta at 4/1 BOG, a price currently available with at least six firms, so we should all get a piece of that. I've elected to go with Coral, because they offer a small insurance policy of our money back if we finish second within a head of the winner. It's a small concession, but as my old grandma used to say, it's better than a slap across the face with a wet fish! 😀

You can, of course, choose a different bookie and you can see their prices very quickly and clearly, if you just...

...click here for the latest betting on the 3.35 Haydock

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Trainers set out plans at British Champions Series launch

Champions Series boost

Champions Series boost

The Grand National really does mark the turning point in the racing year. If anyone doubted that, the launch yesterday of the 2014 QIPCO sponsored British Champions Series would have put them right. Many leading trainers set out their hopes for their top horses for the new flat season, reminding us of the delights we have to look forward to over the coming months.

The charmer of Channel 4 racing, Nick Luck, set the scene, and Rod Street, Chief Executive of British Champions Series announced the one major change to this year’s programme. The much derided apprentice handicap that has so far closed the card on Champions Day has gone. In its place comes a one-mile handicap, which with prize money of £250,000 will be the most valuable handicap race over that distance in Europe.

That race also sees the restoration of an old name, the Balmoral Handicap, to the racing calendar. It isn’t, though, the reintroduction of an old race, as the old Balmoral Handicap was run over five furlongs at the Royal meeting. In a further innovation, all ten racecourses that host races in the Champions series will host at least one of 18 qualifying races, with many of the top handicaps such as the Royal Hunt Cup, the 32Red Bunbury Cup and the Betfred Cambridgeshire among them.

The first six home in each of these races will qualify for the Balmoral Handicap, although only 30 will be able to run.

The new race, along with increases to prize money for some of the other events on Champions Day, takes the prize fund at Ascot on 18 October to a whopping £3.75m. Street said, “Overall prize money on QIPCO British Champions Day has increased by 25% since the inaugural renewal in 2011. This record breaking prize fund underpins the day’s status as one of the most important race meetings in the world.”

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Turning to the horses we should be looking out for this season, few people would have expected Jamie Osborne’s Toast Of New York to feature on that list when he was put away after two wins on the all-weather at Wolverhampton last Autumn. Success in the UAE Derby changed all that, and the horse Osborne describes as his “one little Trojan” in comparison with the legions of the Ballydoyle and Godolphin empires has a supplementary entry for the Epsom Derby.

There are difficulties in weighing up Toast Of New York. First, he’s run four times on dirt, and only once on turf, although he’s worked on grass every day, and apparently Jamie Spencer says he feels good on it. Osborne is worried about it, saying, “The only reason he’s run mostly on artificial surfaces is that those were the right races at the right time for him. I don’t think turf will be disadvantageous to him.”

The trainer acknowledges that there are “mixed messages” in the horse’s pedigree when it comes to the question of whether he’ll stay the Derby distance. We won’t have another chance to assess that before Epsom, as Osborne says that after making such a big effort at Meydan early in his three year old career if Toast Of New York lines up in the Derby he’ll do so without a prep race.

James Fanshawe said he does all he can to avoid pre race interviews so that he doesn’t have to make any predictions, preferring his horses to do the talking. Top of his list is last season’s QIPCO Mares and Fillies victor Seal Of Approval, who will have that race as her target again this year. Beyond Seal Of Approval he wasn’t offering any horse to note for either the Champions Series or the season in general.

Roger Varian showed no such reticence, although he does have more horses to choose from, as he now trains the biggest string in Newmarket. Kingston Hill has entries in both the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby, and Varian gave the impression the latter race would suit his horse better. He said, “He won the Racing Post Trophy to finish as the second top rated juvenile colt. His style of racing says he will stay and his pedigree suggests he will stay a mile and a half. Ten or twelve furlongs won’t have too many fears for him.”

Last season Aljamaaheer was winning races over a mile, and whilst he may compete over that distance at some time during the season, it wasn’t the priority. Varian said, “We’re going to start the year looking at him more as a sprinter than a miler. If he really took to 6 furlongs then that would be very exciting. All those 6 furlong races through the year could suit him”

Varian highlighted Mutashaded as a promising colt who could step up to Group company over middle distances, but it was clear that he felt his strength this year lay with the sprinters. Alongside Aljamaaheer, he highlighted Justineo and Morawij as horses to look out for over the minimum trip, and Steps and Rock Ground over either five or six furlongs.

As for the Classics, there was little optimism, with all his possible horses having to prove if they worthy of a run. Look out for Mushir in the Free Handicap and a sprinkling of entries in several of the trials.

The fillies are to the fore in the Charlie Hills yard. He has two possibilities for the 1,000 Guineas in Kiyoshi and Queen Catrine. He favours the former, who will go straight to Newmarket in May if everything goes well. That means Ireland or France is the likely destination for Queen Catrine, though she’ll run in a trial at either Newbury or Newmarket to see just how she has progressed over the winter.

Sir Michael Stoute flagged up two horses to look out for. Asked if there was an older horse in training he would like to be responsible for he had no hesitation in picking Aidan O’Brien’s Magician, because “he’s just so versatile, he’s a Guineas winner, he’s a Breeders’ Cup Turf winner. I’d go for him.”

Of the horses in his own yard Stoute nominated Windsor maiden winner Idea as one to watch. He’s entered in the 2,000 Guineas, and a run in the Greenham will show whether he’s up to a run in the Classic.

These are all English trained horses, and as in previous years, the British Champions Series will be all out to attract the cream of world racing to Ascot in October. The likes of South Africa’s Shea Shea, America’s No Nay Never and France’s Cirrus Des Aigles are all familiar visitors to Britain. Now another country is joining the show, with Noozoh Canarias set to be the first Spanish trained runner in a British Classic in the 2,000 Guineas, the first race in this season’s Champions Series on 3 May.

Bring it on!

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 28th September 2013

My woeful week continued yesterday with Royal Peculier running out of steam and struggling under the burden of carrying 10 stone. He ran well enough until headed 2 furlongs from home, but he'd already run his race and had nothing left to offer.

Once headed, he weakened considerably and couldn't even hang on to 3rd place in the closing stages, finally coming home 4th at 11/2 having drifted from our 4/1 BOG. The official margin of his defeat was 4.75 lengths.

Slightly bruised, but undeterred, it's the same venue today for another late show in the...

9.00 Wolverhampton

Despite yesterday's losing bet, the stats are still strong concerning these horses turned out within a month of a return to winning ways.

To briefly recap: 3 or more successive unplaced finishes followed by a win and then turned back out within 30 days on the All-Weather.

This year the figures from those criteria read as 45 winners from 153 with that strike rate of 29.4% producing level stakes profits of 49.99pts or 32.67% of stakes, based on all qualifiers priced between evens and 6/1.

There is just the one qualifier today: Living The Life, a 3yr old filly who showed some promise in her 4 maiden outings (finishes of 4221) before failing to make the frame in any of her first four attempts at handicap level (4658). As a result, her handicap mark dropped to just 70 for her latest run, where she took full advantage to score at Leicester, winning by a good 6 lengths yet was easing down considerably towards the finish.

That race only took place on Monday (5 days ago) which brings me to another stat that will support today's selection.

In the last three years, fillies turned back out in lower grade events within 5 days of a win did particularly well. The criteria here are as follows: fillies, running in Classes 4 to 7, not National Hunt races and won last time out which was in the last five days.

That set of specific instructions when also applied to horses priced between evens and 6/1 has thrown up 45 winners from 122 races, a strike rate of 36.9% and achieved profits of 65.3pts, a return of 53.52% of stakes.

Despite absolutely scooting home last time out, Living The Life isn't penalised for that win, as it came in an apprentices' handicap event, meaning she can turn back out off the same mark of 70 and with Monday's jockey John Lawson on board again, his ability to claim a further 7lbs should help the cause that little bit more.

If she comes here in the same mood as Monday she'll certainly be hard to catch over a trip where her record reads 411 and she is highly likely to be sent off as favourite.

I should also add that trainer Jamie Osborne's fillies tend to run very well here too, a claim backed up by the 14 winners from the 49 fillies he has sent here in the last 4 years. The impressive 28.6% strike rate giving rise to level stakes profits of some 61.8pts, an eye-catching 126% of stakes.

As of 1.30 am, the best price on offer for our 1pt win bet on Living The Life was the 9/4 BOG at bet365, but the market hadn't been fully formed at that time. I'm taking that 9/4, because I think it will shorten, so please be sure to...

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McCarthy bows out on a winner

jimmymcThe combination of trainer Renee Robeson, her horse Ogee and jockey Jimmy McCarthy were successful for a seventh and final time at Southwell yesterday. After winning the Denis Wright Memorial Handicap Hurdle, McCarthy announced his retirement after more than 25 years in the saddle. Read more

Alter egos 15: Upper Lambourn

Mandown gallops, Upper Lambourn

Mandown gallops, Upper Lambourn

When John Betjamin visited the Valley of the Racehorse, he captured his thoughts in a poem called Upper Lambourn. It’s probably not one of his best, and certainly not one of his better-known pieces. He takes us to the tomb of an unknown trainer who, in 1923, trained a hundred winners. Was it a real person or was his imagination at work? Probably the latter, as the poet had added a final “e” to the village name. Read more

Trainer Stats: 4th Dec 2012

Harry Fry Making A Name For Himself

See which batch of trainers have made it onto Andy Newton’s ‘hot-list’ this week....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2012

Stat of the Day 17/11

Stat of the Day 17/11

Stat of the Day, 17th November 2012

Roger Varian is rapidly becoming one of SotD's favourite trainers and yesterday he added a winner and a place to his already impressive Wolverhampton non-handicap stats ( he's now 15/18 there!). We selected Ersaal at 18/1 yesterday and I know many of you got a decent price (judging by my email inbox!). It opened on course at 7/1 and was smashed all the way to 9/2 at the off. He ran a brave race, but couldn't get the win we'd like, eventually finishing 3rd, but when you're getting 3.6/1 for a place on a 9/2 runner, beggars sometimes can't be choosers! Incidentally, Roger's only non-handicapper that we highlighted, Yarroom, won cosily.

I'm staying a way from Cheltenham again today and looking at some more all-weather action. It's a lunchtime 10 furlong, Class 6 Handicapon the Polytrack. The going is, of course, standard for the 14 runners in the...

12.30 Lingfield

Whilst not the most prolific of trainers on display today, Jamie Osborne goes about his work at Lingfield quietly and consistently efficiently. 2012 has pretty kind to him at this venue, especially from an E/W punting perspective. Since the turn of the year, Jamie has saddled 13 runners in Lingfield handicaps and a return of 2 winners (15.4%) is satisfactory, but not earth-shattering. However, those two winners have helped him to a level stakes profit of 7pts = 54% return on stakes, which we'd all be happy with.

Yet, it's the E/W angle I'm keener to explore today, as it transpires that in addition to those two winners, a further six runners have made the frame for a place strike rate of 62% and many of them at decent prices too. In fact , backing all 13 runners this year on an E/W basis would have netted you 14.6pts at SP and we all know that we don't bet at SP! 😀

There's just one horse fitting that bill today: Resplendent Alpha.

Resplendent Alpha has been effective on both turf and a variety of all-weather surfaces and his record in his last three outings here reads 122 with the latter race being over today's Course & Distance, where he got off to a poor start but was staying well at the finish. He knows the course well, having competed here 26 times in the past. He's a four-time course winner, including one over Course & Distance.

He had a poor year in 2010, but bounced back to decent form in 2011 and this year, winning three from 21 and making the frame on 11 occasions. The 11 place finishes meant that E/W backers were rewarded to a level stakes profit of 17 pts.

Based on the E/W returns enjoyed by Jamie Osborne's horses here at Lingfield, coupled with Resplendent Alpha's own recent 50%+ place strike record, an E/W bet really does seem the order of the day. The Racing Post tissue had our selection as a possible 7/2 favourite, but the market disagreed at 9.30 am, where 10/1 BOG was widely available, so the play today is a 0.5pt E/W bet on Resplendent Alpha at 10/1 BOG, but you can always...

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Trainer Stats: 31st Oct 2012

Colin Tizzard Has His String In Great Heart....

Andy Newton's got another bunch of in-form trainers to have on your side this week..... Read more