Posts

Stat of the Day, 7th December 2019

Friday's pick was...

1.20 Sandown : Johnbb @ 10/3 BOG WON at 6/4 (Close up, tracked leaders 3 out, ridden to lead on landing last, ran on to win by a 3.25 lengths)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

12.20 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin @ 4/1

...in a 9-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m3½f on currently Soft ground worth £4,289 to the winner...

Why?...

This 9 yr old gelding is a consistent sort, finishing 123222 in his last six outings and despite not winning any of the last five, he still boasts an impressive 5 wins from 16 over fences, including...

  • 5/13 under today's jockey Nick Scholfield
  • 4/9 at Class 4
  • 4/6 in December/January
  • 3/7 going right handed
  • and 2/3 in December

Aside from the above, this horse's name kept cropping up when I was going through my list of possible qualifiers, so I'm going to keep the separate stats brief.

We'll start by saying that the yard is in good nick too, with 5 winners from 19 in the past fortnight, including 4/12 in the last week, whilst since the start of 2017, Jeremy Scott's handicap jumpers are 23 from 80 (28.75% SR) for 16.84pts (+21% ROI) when sent off shorter than 7/1 on soft/heavy ground.

Whilst since 2014, Jeremy's Class 4 handicap chasers are 40/197 (20.3% SR) for 77.5pts (+39.3% ROI), with Nick Scholfield riding 17 winners from 79 (21.5%), whilst clocking up 38.2pts (+48.4%) profit.

And in that same 2014-19 time frame, Jeremy's sub-12/1 handicap chasers dropping in class are 18/46 (39.1% SR) for 90.6pts (+196.9% ROI) with Nick Scholfield once again being the go-to guy with an 11/24 (45.8%) record producing profits of 69.4pts (+289.3%)

Also, since 2014, when a handicap chaser has been Jeremy Scott's only runner of the day, he's has 24 winners from 123 (19.5% SR) for 79.5pts (+65.2% ROI) profit with lower grade (ie C4/5) runners winning 20 of 86 (23.2%) for 81.3pts (+95.7%).

And finally, I'll wrap this one up with a quick nod to Native Robin's recent form, since in UK Class 3-5 handicap chases since 2012, horses sent off shorter than 5/1 after finishing 222 in their previous three outings are 38 from 110 (34.6% SR) for 35.9pts (+32.6% ROI) when they'd last ran 11-45 days earlier. This includes 10 winners from 18 (55.6%) for 17.42pts (+96.8%) over 2m3.5f/2m4f ...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin @ 4/1  as was offered by Hills at 4.50pm on Friday. Hills were the only price available as I went to press, but another 8 firms went on to match that price, including some BOG firms. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting later...

...click here for the betting on the 12.20 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th February 2019

Monday's Pick was...

3.00 Carlisle : Absolutely Dylan @ 5/2 BOG 8th at 11/4 (Held up, closed 6th, given reminder, led after next, headed 9th, lost place 12th, not fluent 4 out, well beaten from next)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.45 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Orchardstown Cross 3/1 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, 5yo+, Novices Limited Handicap Chase over 2m7f on good ground, worth £6108 to the winner... 

Why?

Here we have a very lightly raced (today is his 6th outing) 8 yr old gelding who has been a runner-up on each of his last two starts, despite a 445-day gap between them!

He was only beaten late on by half a length last time out 50 days ago when (a) coming off that lengthy absence, (b) running for Jeremy Scott for the first time and (c) ridden by today's jockey, the rising star, Rex Dingle for the first time. He's expected to come on for the run, should stay and carries virtually no weight here today.

Jeremy Scott is 20 from 102 (19.6% SR) for 125.23pts (+122.8% ROI) backed blindly here at Taunton since the start of 2011 and that's too many bets, here are a dozen relevance angles at play today, all derived from that stat...

  1. males are 18/82 (2%) for 140pts (+170.8%)
  2. those who had raced in the previous 50 days are 19/70 (27.1%) for 46.8pts (+209.7%)
  3. handicappers are 14/61 (23%) for 22.1pts(+36.3%)
  4. at Class 4, it's 8/53 (15.1%) for 101pts (+190.6%)
  5. at odds of 8/1 and shorter : 17/50 (34%) for 43.75pts (+87.5%)
  6. Feb-April : 9/34 (26.5%) for 25.1pts (+73.8%)
  7. 2nd/3rd LTO : 10/28 (35.7%) for 32.5pts (+116.1%)
  8. with a 3/5 lb claimer on board : 7/26 (26.9%) for 22.4pts (+86.3%)
  9. 2018/19 = 8/21 (38.1%) for 118.4pts (+563.9%)
  10. chasers are 5/18 (27.8%) for 25.7pts (+143%)
  11. 8/9 yr olds are 5/12 (41.7%) for 17pts (+141.8%)
  12. Rex Dingle = 2/5 (40%) for 1.88pts (+37.7%)

...whilst more generally... Rex Dingle is 7/20 (35% SR) for 12.3pts (+61.5% ROI) on Jeremy Scott-trained runners including 6 wins from 12 (50%) for 13.4pts (+111.7%) in handicaps...

...and even more generally... Jeremy Scott's Class 4 handicap chasers are 36 from 173 (20.8% SR) for 84.5pts (+48.8% ROI) since the start of 2014 and these include...

  • after a 3-8 week rest : 23/94 (24.5%) for 80.4pts (+85.5%)
  • on Good ground : 19/83 (22.9%) for 30.8pts (+37.1%)
  • and here at Taunton : 3/7 (42.9%) for 22.9pts (+326.9%)

...all pointing towards... a 1pt win bet on Orchardstown Cross 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 7.35pm on Monday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.45 Taunton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 31st December 2018

Saturday's Pick was...

12.50 Kelso : Alizee de Janeiro @ 7/2 BOG WON at 7/1 (Held up towards rear, headway 3 out, went 2nd next, led between last 2, ridden before last, forged clear on flat to win by 9 lengths)

Monday's last pick of the year runs in the...

1.40 Uttoxeter :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG

...in an 11-runner, Class 4, Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m on Soft (heavy in places) ground worth £4614 to the winner...  

Why?

A 7yr old gelding who has been running consistently well over the last 13 months or so, winning 4 and placing a further twice from just nine outings, including an LTO win over 2m7.5f on heavy ground under today's jockey Matt Griffiths 24 days ago.

Conditions look testing today, but our lad looks well suited to them as to date, his record includes...

  • 4 wins, 2 places from 10 under Matt Griffiths
  • 4w, 2pl from 9 at sub-7/1 odds
  • 3w, 1pl from 7 in 2018
  • 3w, 2pl from 6 at 4/1 or shorter
  • 3w, 1pl from 6 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 2w, 1pl from 6 on soft
  • 2w from 4 over the 3m trip
  • 1w from 2 on heavy
  • and 1 from 1 in a visor

In addition to the above, this horse popped up three times on my Query Tool report under my highly-imaginatively titled angles C4/5 hcp chasers, NH softies & Uttox HC chasers!

It doesn't take a genius to work out what those angles are, but let's see why they were flagged up, starting with...

...C 4/5 Hcp Chasers...

Trainer Jeremy Scott + C 4/5 hcp chasers + 2013-18 = 53/252 (21%) for 128.6pts (+51% ROI) backed blindly and these include...

  • at Class 4 : 39/198 (19.7%) for 86.8pts (+43.9%)
  • over 2m7.5f to 3m0.5f : 12/62 (19.4%) for 26.3pts (+42.4%)
  • and here at Uttoxeter : 6/22 (27.3%) for 17.6pts (+80%)

...and then we have NH Softies...

Jeremy's NH handicappers on soft or worse are 20/101 (19.8% SR) for 18.5pts (+18.3% ROI) backed blindly since the start of 2017 and with today's race in mind, they include...

  • at evens to 13/2 : 17/54 (31.5%) for 21.9pts (+40.6%)
  • over 2m4.5f to 3m0.5f : 13/45 (28.9%) for 39.9pts (+88.7%)
  • and at evens to 13/2 over 2m6f to 3m1.5f : 11/24 (45.8%) for 22.5pts (+93.8%)

...and finally for today, the Uttox HC chasers...

Jeremy Scott + Uttoxeter HC Chasers at 10/1 or shorter = 6/17 (35.3% SR) for 22.6pts (+133% ROI) over the last 5 years, including...

  • Class 4 : 4/15 (26.7%) for 11.7pts (+77.9%)
  • Matt Griffiths : 5/10 (50%) for 24.7pts (+247%)
  • 2m6.5f to 3m : 5/10 (50%) for 24.5pts (+245%)
  • 21-45 dslr : 3/10 (30%) for 5.58pts (+55.8%)
  • and 7/8 yr olds are 5/9 (55.6%) for 25.5pts (+283.4%)

...which all steers us towards... a 1pt win bet on Gonnabegood @ 11/2 BOG, as was available from Betfair & Hills at 6.40pm on Sunday evening, but you could get another half a point from Paddy Power. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.40 Uttoxeter

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 9th November 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

3.20 Sedgefield : Handy Hollow @ 11/4 BOG 6th at 5/1 (Held up in touch, headway 4 out, soon ridden, weakened after next, tailed off) 

Friday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Warwick :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG  

...in a 10-runner, Class 4 Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 3m2f on Good ground worth £5198 to the winner... 

Why?

This 10 yr old gelding was a winner by 3 lengths over 3m2.5f in a similar Class 4 contest under today's jockey Nick Scholfield when last seen 102 days ago, taking his record in sub-£6,000 Class 4 handicap chases to 2 wins and a place from 4 efforts and whilst he's been off the track for almost 3.5 months now, I'm not over concerned, as he's made the frame of four of five runs off a break of 3 to 6 months previously.

He is trained by Jeremy Scott and the trainer's record in such contests will form the backbone of today's analysis, as his Class 4 handicap chasers have won 35 of 160 (21.9% SR) for 94.3pts (+58.9% ROI) profits since the start of 2014 and whilst I rarely advocate blindly backing one of my starter angles, you could actually do far worse than just back these, as there's an average of less than 40 per year.

That said, I/you would probably still want to apply some filters to improve both SR and ROI, so we could try...

  • males at 33/152 (21.7%) for 91.5pts (+60.2%)
  • 6-10 yr olds at 32/125 (25.6%) for 101.6pts (+81.3%)
  • priced at 7/4 to 13/2 at 24/83 (28.9%) for 35.2pts (+42.4%)
  • on Good ground at 19/79 (24.1%) for 34.8pts (+44%)
  • ridden by Nick Scholfield at 16/64 (25%) for 60.2pts (+94%)
  • in 2018, they are 9/37 (24.3%) for 32.8pts (+88.7%)
  • from November to January : 8/36 (22.2%) for 52.9pts (+147%)
  • stayers over 3m2f to 3m4f are 10/28 (35.7%) for 14.5pts (+51.9%)
  • 10 yr olds are 6/25 (24%) for 5.37pts (+21.5%)
  • at Warwick : 2/11 (18.2%) for 8.46pts (+76.9%)
  • and after a break of 3 to 6 months : 3/9 (33.3%) for 11.9pts (+132.1%)

Yet, I know there are plenty of you who like a nice composite angle they can follow, so the following simple micro (derived from the above) might work for you...

...6-12 yr old males priced at 7/4 to 13/2 on ground with the word Good in the official description are 18 from 47 (38.3% SR) for 44pts profit at an attractive ROI of 93.6%, from which Nick Scholfield is 6/19 (31.6%) for 13.66pts (+71.9%), whilst the 3.25 to 3.5 mile stayers are 7 from 12 (58.3%) for 20.82pts (+173.5% ROI)...

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy @ 6/1 BOG, as offered by Betfair, Ladbrokes & Paddy Power at 6.45pm on Thursday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Warwick

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

8.30 Newcastle : Another Angel @ 10/3 BOG WON at 11/4 (Made all, ran on strongly, clear over 1f out, ran on strongly, unchallenged winning by 2.75 lengths) 

Thursday's pick runs in the...

3.05 Huntingdon :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG  

In a 5-runner, Class 4, Novices Limited Handicap Chase for 4yo+ over 2m½f on Good ground, worth £6498 to the winner...

Why?

This 6 yr old gelding is 3 from 5 over fences in the past 6 months, including 3 wins from 4 at this grade. far from disgraced in finishing third last time out 33 days ago in a better (C3) contest than this one, he is now sent on a 500-mile round trip to run here, down in both class and weight (-1lb from LTO). The distance might or might not be relevant, as there's arguably an easier/shorter journey from Somerset to racing at Fontwell tomorrow.

Trainer Jeremy Scott is one worth keeping onside with his handicap chasers, who have been profitable to follow for each of the last five years, clocking up 53 winners from 287 (18.5% SR) for level stakes profits of 107.8pts at a healthy ROI of 37.6%. With today's contest/conditions in mind, let's look at just ten ways Jeremy has found those 53 profitable winners...

  1. Males are 52/272 (19.1%) for 117.1pts (+43.1%)
  2. 5 to 9 yr olds are 39/183 (21.3%) for 123.4pts (+67.4%)
  3. Those last seen 21-75 days earlier are 36/173 (20.8%) for 87.1pts (+50.3%)
  4. Those sent off at odds of 15/8 to 6/1 are 35/124 (28.2%) for 60.4pts (+48.7%)
  5. Those racing at Class 4 are 34/155 (21.9%) for 94.2pts (+60.8%)
  6. Those racing on officially Good ground are 28/144 (19.4%) for 47.9pts (+33.2%)
  7. Those racing in fields of 5 to 7 runners are 26/109 (23.9%) for 95.8pts (+87.8%)
  8. Those ridden by Matt Griffiths are 18/101 (17.8%) for 21.4pts (+21.2%)
  9. Those dropping down a class are 14/43 (32.6%) for 64.1pts (+149.2%)
  10. And those making a round trip of 450 miles or more are 6/27 (22.2%) for 26.7pts (+99%) - yard clearly has no qualms about travelling.

All the above are, of course, applicable today, but if you wanted to reduce the number of bets made and also maybe combine some of the more winner-finding angles, you could try...5-9 yr old males sent off at 15/8 to 6/1 some 21 to 75 days after their last run : this simple and easy to follow angle has been worth 16 winners from 55 witht he 29.1% strike rate yielding 26.7pts profit at an ROI of 48.6%...

...and would highlight... a 1pt win bet on Tikkinthebox @ 4/1 BOG, a price offered by Betfair & Paddy Power at 6.00pm on Wednesday evening. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 3.05 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 19th January 2018

Thursday's Result :

4.05 Southwell : Ocho Rios @ 7/2 BOG 5th at 15/8 Very slowly away well in rear, progress on outer over 5f out, in touch, ridden to chase leaders over 2f out, no impression from over 1f....

Next up is Friday's...

2.00 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Miss Minuty @ 11/4 BOG

A Class 5, 4yo+ A/W Handicap over 1m2f on Polytrack worth £3,752 to the winner...

Why?

A 6 yr old mare who comes here on a hat-trick after back to back course and distance wins under today's jockey Jason Watson, who once again takes 7lbs off.

This mare's A/W record record already includes the following...

  • 3/13 within 30 days of her last run & 4/11 in fields of 8 to 11 runners
  • 3/5 at Lingfield, 3/5 in January, 3/4 at 1m2f & 3/4 over course and distance
  • 2/3 racing for Jeremy Scott, 2/3 under Jason Watson & 1/1 at Class 5

Jeremy Scott's LTO winners are 44/172 (25.6% SR) for 57.7pts (+33.5% ROI) since 2011.

And when having just one runner on the day anywhere over the last five years, his record stands at 46/249 (18.5% SR) for 156.8pts (+63% ROI) in handicaps.

So, short and sweet today...

...but enough for... a 1pt win bet on Miss Minuty @ 11/4 BOG which was available from Betfair & Paddy Power at 5.40pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.00 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

12.55 Kempton : Ericht @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Jumped left at times, tracked leaders, left in 2nd place 6th, lost 2nd 8th, outpaced and never going from next, tailed off

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old was a winner last time out three weeks ago under today's jockey Nick Scholfield, who is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.43pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Plumpton since the start of 2015.

And since the start of 2008. trainer Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners within the previous 30 days, "doubled up" on 17 of 70 occasions (24.3% SR) for profits of 37.4pts (+53.4%), including...

  • those priced at 11/8 to 9/1 are 16/50 (32%) for 40.6pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16pts (+44.4%)
  • those that were Jeremy's only runner of the day are 6/29 (20.7%) for 8.33pts (+28.7%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 8/27 (29.6%) for 6.97pts (+25.8%)
  • and on Soft ground expected today : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.02pts (+50.2%)

I mentioned just there about This being Jeremy's only runner of the day and I had a closer look and found that he does pretty well when only having the one out. Since the start of 2011, 58 of his 342 (17% SR) "solo flyers" have been winners, returning level stakes profits of 244pts at a verey healthy ROI of 71.4%, of which Nock has ridden 24 winners from 162 (14.8%) for 155.9pts (+96.2%), whilst Class 4 races have seen 28 winners from 153 (18.3%) and 142.9pts (+93.4%) profits.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and about 17 others at 8.35pm on Sunday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 16th January 2017

Saturday's Result :

12.55 Kempton : Ericht @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 Jumped left at times, tracked leaders, left in 2nd place 6th, lost 2nd 8th, outpaced and never going from next, tailed off

Monday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Plumpton

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

This 6 yr old was a winner last time out three weeks ago under today's jockey Nick Scholfield, who is 6/28 (21.4% SR) for 8.43pts (+30.1% ROI) here at Plumpton since the start of 2015.

And since the start of 2008. trainer Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers who were LTO winners within the previous 30 days, "doubled up" on 17 of 70 occasions (24.3% SR) for profits of 37.4pts (+53.4%), including...

  • those priced at 11/8 to 9/1 are 16/50 (32%) for 40.6pts (+81.2%)
  • those last seen 6-21 days ago are 11/36 (30.6%) for 16pts (+44.4%)
  • those that were Jeremy's only runner of the day are 6/29 (20.7%) for 8.33pts (+28.7%)
  • those ridden by Nick Scholfield are 8/27 (29.6%) for 6.97pts (+25.8%)
  • and on Soft ground expected today : 3/8 (37.5%) for 4.02pts (+50.2%)

I mentioned just there about This being Jeremy's only runner of the day and I had a closer look and found that he does pretty well when only having the one out. Since the start of 2011, 58 of his 342 (17% SR) "solo flyers" have been winners, returning level stakes profits of 244pts at a verey healthy ROI of 71.4%, of which Nock has ridden 24 winners from 162 (14.8%) for 155.9pts (+96.2%), whilst Class 4 races have seen 28 winners from 153 (18.3%) and 142.9pts (+93.4%) profits.

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Kid Kalanisi @ 11/4 BOG which was offered by Bet365 and about 17 others at 8.35pm on Sunday, so we should all be able to get on! To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Plumpton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2016

Tuesday's Result :

4.45 Wolverhampton : Bayan Kasirga @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 7/2 (Slowly into stride and carried slightly right start, behind, outpaced on outside into straight, soon ridden, headway over 1f out, went 4th inside final furlong, kept on well, not reach leaders).

Wednesday's pick goes in the...

7.40 Newton Abbot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Native Robin at 4/1 BOG.

Why?

This 6yr old gelding has taken brilliantly to fences, winning both efforts so far, including one win on good to soft ground like he'll face today. He has won at both this C4 grade and also at Class 3 last time out, both under today's jockey Nick Scholfield and both in handicaps.

He's understandably up 5lbs for his latest win, but the drop in class should help, as should his yard's record with horses coming down in grade.

Since the start of 2013, trainer Jeremy Scott's horses dropping down a grade or two in Nh handicaps are 14 from 76 (18.4% SR) for 20.4pts (+26.9% ROI) profit, a nice little angle to keep onside of, but further inspection shows some interesting subsets of data that are all applicable today...

  • those dropping just one class are 13/68 (19.1% SR) for 17.2pts (+25.3% ROI)
  • males are 13/62 (21% SR) for 23pts (+37.1% ROI)
  • those in the top 6 LTO are 12/47 (25.5% SR) for 30.3pts (+64.4% ROI)
  • those priced at 3/1 to 10/1 are 11/43 (25.6% SR) for 44.6pts (+103.8% ROI)
  • over 2m3.5f to 2m6.5f : 9/31 (29% SR) for 34.8pts (+112.3% ROI)
  • those last seen 46-240 days ago : 9/30 (30% SR) for 32pts (+106.7% ROI)
  • chasers are also 9/30 (30% SR), but for 26.6pts (+88.7% ROI)
  • Class 4 runners are 7/30 (23.3% SR) for 17.5pts (+58.2% ROI)
  • those dropping from Class 3 LTO are 7/28 (25% SR) for 19.5pts (+69.5% ROI)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 3/5 (60% SR) for 20pts (+400% ROI)
  • and LTO winners are 2 from 4 950% SR) for 1.71pts at an ROI of 42.9%

And so the call is...a 1pt win bet on Native Robin at 4/1 BOG with any one of the half dozen or so bookies offering that price at 6.30pm. To see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 25th February 2016

Wednesday's Result :

7.10 Kempton : Biff Johnson @ 3/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Led, ridden over 1f out, headed inside final furlong, kept on, but beaten by a length)

Thursday's runner goes in the...

3.20 Huntingdon:

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Comragh @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

This 6yr old mare makes both her yard and handicap debut today, having last been seen 106 days ago winning by 8 lengths at Ayr, where she was the main beneficiary of a fall by the leader at the last hurdle. She has since switched yards and now runs for Jeremy Scott, who from a fairly small sample size, tends to do well here at Huntingdon.

Since the start of 2011, his 22 runners here have produced 7 winners (31.8% SR) and a healthy 7.13pts (+32.4% ROI) of level stakes profits. Once has to assume it's the 400+ mile round trip from Somerset that keeps him away, because closer inspection shows that of those 22 runners he has sent here...

  • today's jockey Nick Scholfield has ridden 6 winners from 20 (30% SR) for 6.26pts (+31.3% ROI)
  • hurdlers are 5/14 (35.7% SR) for 1.65pts (+11.8% ROI), these tend to get backed!
  • those priced at 5/1 and shorter are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 4.91pts (+37.8% ROI)
  • 6 yr olds are 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 7.33pts (+104.7% ROI)
  • females are 4/6 (66.7% SR) for 6.79pts (+113.1% ROI)
  • and in female only races, they are 2/3 (66.7% SR) for 2.04pts (+68% ROI)

Nick Scholfield / Jeremy Scott/ Female Hurdlers / 5-1 and shorter are 4 from 4 for 8.8pts (+220% ROI) of which 6 yr olds are 3 from 3 for 8.46pts (+282.2% ROI).

Comrah makes her handicap bow today and last year was a good one for Jermey Scott's handicap debutants with 4 winners from 10 for profits of 18.67pts (+186.7% ROI), of which class 4 runners were 3 from 7 (42.9% SR) for 15.92pts (+227.5% ROI), females were 3 from 6 (50% SR) for 19.1pts (+318.1% ROI) and Nick Scholfield rode 2 winners from 3 (66.7% SR) for 6.33pts (+211% ROI)

None of the 10 were priced between 11/2 and 12/1, they fell either side of that gap, but those at 5/1 or shorter won 3 from 3 for 9.47pts (+315.7% ROI)

And today's play is...a 1pt win bet on Comragh at 9/2 BOG, a price currently (8.255pm) available with more than half a dozen different firms, so to find your preferred bookie, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.20 Huntingdon

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2015

Stat of the Day, 2nd December 2015

Tuesday's Result :

1.15 Southwell : Crosspark @ 2/1 BOG 3rd of 9 at 2/1 (Mid-division, not fluent 7th, headway on outside 4 out, every chance 2 out, 3rd and no impression on winner when dived at last )

Wednesday's selection runs in the...

3.10 Ludlow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Dukes Affair @ 11/4 BOG

Why?

1. Since the start of 2008, Jeremy Scott's handicap hurdlers priced at 5/4 to 10/1 are 53/248 (21.4% SR) for 55pts (+22.2% ROI), with the following applicable here...

  • males are 36/162 (22.2% SR) for 54.4pts (+33.6% ROI)
  • Class 4/5 : 36/148 (24.3% SR) for 53pts (+35.8% ROI)
  • 7 to 9 yr olds  :37/113 (32.7% SR) for 66.2pts (+58.5% ROI)

2. Over the last three years, jockey Matt Griffiths has ridden 22 winners from his 113 rides (19.5% SR) aboard the Scott handicappers for profits of 54.7pts at an ROI of 48.4%. Over hurdles that record is 12/64 (18.8% SR) for 33pts (+51.5% ROI)

3. Since 2008, Jeremy's handicap hurdlers running within 1 to 30 of a win last time out are 11/28 (39.3% SR) for 29.4pts (+105% ROI) at odds of 11/8 to 9/1.

4. On the occasions like today, when he only sends one runner to a track, that horse has been a winner on 56 of 322 occasions over the last five years with the resultant 17.4% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 229.7pts at an ROI of 71.4% with his Class 4 hurdlers winning 18 of 85 (21.2% SR) for 121.4pts (+142.8% ROI)

5. And on the occasions like today, when he only has one runner anywhere, that horse has been a winner on 48 of 263 occasions over the last five years with the resultant 18.3% strike rate yielding level stakes profits of 252.6pts at an ROI of 96.1% with his Class 4 hurdlers winning 14 of 67 (20.9% SR) for 128.8pts (+192.3% ROI)

And my recommended bet, based on prices available at 7.25pm?

A 1pt win bet on Dukes Affair @ 11/4 BOG with either of Boylesports or Seanie Mac to see what your preferred bookie is offering...

...click here for the betting on the 3.10 Ludlow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2015

We kicked the new week off with a narrow defeat as the 5/2 (adv 7/2) Orlando Rogue was run down and collared in the shadow of the post. It was a brave and gallant, if ultimately unsuccessful effort to win the race from the front with 5f of the 7 to run, but close shaves don't pay my bills!

It's a point dropped in reality and one I'd like back ASAP. Hopefully, I'll have it after Tuesday's...

6.00 Newton Abbot:

A Class 5 maiden hurdle over 2m 5.5f  on good ground where I've just taken 3/1 BOG about Jeremy Scott's steadily improving 5yr old mare, Midnight Mint.

Jeremy Scott isn't the busiest of trainers with regards to actual numbers of runners (that's not to say he's not busy at the yard!), but in the past two months he has had 7 winners for 31 runners (22.6% SR) and 18 of those runners have made the frame (58.1% SR).

Since 2008, his hurdlers priced at 5/4 to 7/1 (you never know where early-priced 3/1 maidens will end up!) are 62/229 (27.1% SR) for 70.6pts (+30.9% ROI) which are pretty impressive results and he's clearly found a niche for himself. With today's race in mind, those figures stack up as follows...

  • on good ground : 24/75 (32% SR) for 48.8pts (+65.1% ROI)
  • at class 5 level : 11/25 (44% SR) for 19.9pts (+79.4% ROI)
  • here at Newton Abbot : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 5.9pts (+36.9% ROI)
  • in maidens : 7/15 (46.7% SR) for 20.4pts (+136% ROI)

Midnight Mint came back from a 15-week break to gove a career best performance in a 2m5f novice hurdle at Kempton in early May and bettered that next/last time out with another third place finish 3 weeks later (30 days ago) at Uttoxeter, where she raced prominently and was only caught and heaed late on by better horse than she'll face today.

Those last two decent efforts were both in and around today's trip and both at Class 4 and the drop in class today should make a difference for her if the jockey from last time, Liam Heard adopts similar tactics.

So, we know the trip is fine and she's running well enough whiolst improving and now drops in class, but the clincher for me is her "dad".

She's by Midnight Legend, as you'll all know by know is one of my favourite sires. I'll start by reminding you that if you backed all of his offspring in every race since the start of 2008, you wouldn't have had a losing year! In numerical terms 2797 runners have produce 411 winners (14.7% SR) for 737.4pts at an ROI of 26.4% and that's from blind, unfiltered backing.

I appreciate that not all of you would want around 370 bets a year from one micro-system and there are hundreds of ways of breaking the data down, but I'm going to use the parameters of today's contest to whittle 2797 runners down to 37 in seven simple, logical steps.

Once you arrive at a number of selections you're comfortable with, there's your own little micro! OK, so we have 411 winners from 2797 (14.7% SR) for 737.4pts at 26.4% : let's go!

  1. female offspring are 177/1197 (14.8% SR) for 325.2pts (+27.2% ROI), of which...
  2. hurdlers are 96/706 (13.6% SR) for 152.7pts (+21.6% ROI), of which...
  3. those aged 5/6 yrs old are 62/365 (17% SR) for 91.6pts (+22.4% ROI), of which...
  4. those at trips of 21f to 25f are 36/173 (20.8% SR) for 88.9pts (+51.4% ROI), of which...
  5. class 4/5 runners are 27/132 (20.5% SR) for 55.5pts (+42.1% ROI), of which...
  6. good ground runners are 14/58 (24.1% SR) for 52.3pts (+90.1% ROI) and finally...
  7. those priced below 12/1 are 14/37 (37.8% SR) for 73.3pts (+198% ROI).

And breathe! 😀

Midnight Mint is currently 3/1 BOG with both Bet365 and Paddy Power, whilst the only other book, Betfair SB, shows her at 9/4 BOG. When every firm has opened up, you'll see their prices by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 6.00 Newton Abbot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,

just click here for more details.

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard.

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2013

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th October 2013

As some of you may be aware, I've been quite ill of late and I'm likely to be spending the bulk of the day at the hospital for another barrage of tests like last Thursday, hence my absence this time last week!

So, I'm putting today's pick up early (1am!) in a slightly truncated format, but the background work has still been done, trust me!

Exceeder was disappointing yesterday, if truth be told and I hope to get back to winning ways in the...

2.30 Worcester

Where I've backed Moorlands Jack at 5/2 with BetVictor, as this Jeremy Scott-trained chaser looks for a back to back C&D double following his success here 30 days ago.

Jeremy Scott has a great record in October. Blindly backing all his NH runners in October that were sent off at 12/1 or shorter has produced 15 winners from 40 (37.5% SR) to date for level stakes profits of 55.56pts (+138.9% ROI), not bad at all. Since 2010, that record is 10/26 (38.46% SR) for 36.87pts (+141.8% ROI) profit.

Jeremy's horses also go well over Worcester's obstacles with eight of his jumpers winning from twenty-seven attempts, the 29.63% strike rate yielding a profit of 23.46pts, or 86.89% of stakes. The figures for 2012/3 are 6/18 (33.33%) for 7.73pts (+42.94%), a reduced ROI, but still worth having.

Jeremy's jumpers at Worcester with a 6/1 odds cap have won 7 of 16 races (43.75% SR) for 14.92pts (+93.25% ROI) profit.

And last, but not least: Moorlands Jack is one of my "Back To Form" horses ie 3 or more consecutive unplaced runs followed by a win. The horse is then turned out in the next 30 days at odds of 6/1 or under and runs well again.

The stats for such NH horses for the 2010/13 period (large sample size) is 376 winners from 1371 races (27.43% SR) for modest, but acceptable profits of 108.1pts (+7.88% ROI). Those aren't earth-shattering profits, but you won't get that at a bank and a sample size fast approaching 1400 rules out any freak results.

2013's results are considerably better, though at 78/266 (29.32% SR) for an excellent return of 55.52pts (+20.87% ROI)

So, there's plenty of stats to back up our selection, but what of Moorlands Jack? Well, he's certainly no mug and scored comfortably here a month ago over C&D, winning by over 5 lengths with plenty in hand.

He has been raised 8lbs for that win, but jockey Matt Griffiths can take three of those off and to be honest, this horse was more than 8lbs better than those he beat last time out. Gud Day (also no mug at this level) was second that day and only got to within 5 lengths as our selection eased down, but Gud Day went on to win next time out off the same mark, whilst third placed Midnight Tuesday (another length further back) ran well enough to finish second at Huntingdon last Sunday.

As I said at the top, I'm on Moorlands Jack at 5/2 with BetVictor, but a host of other firms are offering the same price, so for your favourite bookie...

Click here for the latest betting on the 2.30 Worcester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day,
just click here for more details.

Here is today's racecard!

 

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2013

Stat of the Day: 05/03/13

Stat of the Day: 05/03/13

Stat of the Day, 5th March 2013

A "nearly" day yesterday, as Irene Kennet just couldn't land the telling blow late on and we had to settle for a place. She looked to have every chance inside the last furlong, but couldn't go with the eventual winner, finishing 3rd after all. Fortunately we'd gone E/W, but unfortunately a couple of withdrawals meant a fairly large Rule 4 deduction and our final outcome was a profit of 0.11pts. Still, an 11% POI is better than nothing, not that I enjoy backing 1/9 shots generally!

Haldon Hill in Devon is our port of call today for a 19-runner (yes, 19!) Class 4 Handicap Hurdle over 2m 3f on Good ground in today's...

3.00 Exeter

Trainer Jeremy Scott has an excellent recent record in handicap contests here at Exeter: since the start of 2011 he has scored 7 wins and 5 places from just 17 runners. A win strike rate of 41.2% and a place rate of 70.6% have produced level stakes profits of 21.6pts (+127%) and 34.4pts (+101%) respectively, making all Jeremy's Exeter handicappers of immediate interest.

The bulk of those runners have competed in hurdle races and whilst not quite living up to those great results, they are still very commendable indeed. His handicap hurdle record reads 5 wins (41.7%) and 4 places (75% in total) from 12 races, generating profits of 10.63pts (+88.6%) and 18.91pts (+78.8%). His chase returns are slightly better, but five races is too small a sample size for my liking.

Jeremy has two entrants today: Pericoloso looks to have a stiff test in the Devon National at 3.30, but Mr Scott won that race last year with Clash Duff and Pericoloso may well grab a place at a decent price (currently 20/1). However, Jeremy seems to have a better chance in the preceding race, one he also won last year and in 2010 (no entry in 2011!) with last year's winner Josh's Dreamaway.

Josh's Dreamaway is 1/1 here at Exeter and over C&D, courtesy of last year's victory in this race. She's 2/2 over today's 2m 3f trip and she's also 4/6 on good ground.

She does, however, race some 13lbs higher than last year's race, so we'll expect a much longer price than her returned SP of 4/1 a year ago. She was lowered by 2lbs after a decent run at Taunton in December, finishing 6th in a race where four of the horses in front of her have run again since to good effect (3 have won races and the other has been placed twice). And I'm not sure she was entirely at home on the heavy surface hat day either.

Josh's Dreamaway should come here fit and fresh after a pipe opener in a jumpers bumper at Wolverhampton, where she was only beaten by less than half a length.

The extra weight is a concern today, but both trainer and horse have form here at Exeter and form in this particular race to boot. Our jockey has a 3lb claim today, which might make all the difference and today's bet is a 0.5pts E/W bet on Josh's Dreamaway at 9/1 BOG with BetVictor (William Hill also offer 9/1), but you can always...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 3.00 Exeter

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2013

Stat of the Day: 21/02/13

Stat of the Day: 21/02/13

Stat of the Day, 21st February 2013

Time appeared to catch up on the veteran Fairwood Present yesterday. A series of unusual jumping errors blighted his run, as he justified the market's lack of faith in him, having drifted from my 9/1 advice out to an SP, of 20/1. The old warrior completed the course, unlike three of his rivals, but he only beat one other horse home.

We're off to Cambridgeshire today for a Class 1 Listed hurdle, where just five runners are set to line up to tackle two miles, four and a half furlongs on Soft Ground. We're looking to beat a very short-priced favourite in The Sidney Banks Memorial Novices Hurdle aka the ...

3.30 Huntingdon

Jeremy Scott has a terrific record here at Huntingdon with seven winners from sixteen since October 2011, with another four of the nine losing horses going on to make the frame. Strike rates of 43.75% and 68.75% for the win and the place have produced profits of 9.1pts (56.9%) and 15.9pts (49.7%)  for E/W backers. So Jeremy's runners here are always of interest.

Mr Scott comes here double-handed, with Grey Missile contesting the 2.30 chase event, but it's looks little too tough for him. he may well have a squeak of an E/w chance though (currently available at 9/1), but I prefer the chances of Kilmurvy who runs an hour later.

Kilmurvy is an unexposed type (23114 from 5 races) and a better horse than he showed last time out when struggling at Exeter. He toiled under a big weight in the mud that day, but Huntingdon is generally considered an easier track and more like the Taunton course that he's already won twice on.

His first win at Taunton was a bumper on good ground, but he followed that up with a hurdle victory on heavy ground over 2m 3.5f whilst seeming to still have more to give. It is hoped that the application of the cheekpieces will aid his progress further today and despite coming up against an odds on favourite (around 1/2) today, it wouldn't be any surprise to see him run well again.

Stan James are best priced at 15/2 at the moment, but their site is down and a telephone service is in operation, whilst Boylesports go 7/1. Despite these odds being long enough for a safety-first E/W bet and the presence of a short-priced favourite, I'm taking the bull by the horns and suggesting a 1pt win bet on Kilmurvy at 7/1 BOG with Boylesports, but you can always...

...Click here for the latest betting on the 3.30 Huntingdon, whilst...

...you can view today's racecard here.