Scott exploring Aintree possibility for Dashel Drasher

Jeremy Scott is looking to run Dashel Drasher at Aintree, in either the Melling Chase or the Betway Bowl, but only if the ground is suitable.

Should conditions be too fast then the Somerset handler would put the Betfair Ascot Chase winner away until next season.

Dashel Drasher was a late withdrawal from the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham because the ground had dried out too much.

The eight-year-old has been a revelation this campaign winning his last three starts, culminating in Grade One company in February.

“I think he’ll have an entry at Aintree, but again if the weather doesn’t look right and the ground isn’t right he wouldn’t run. But he’s very well. He’s all ready to go,” said Scott.

“There’s a race there over two and a half miles and also three-miles-one-furlong. We’ll look at both and see what the entries are like.

“Whether the shorter race will be too sharp and the longer one too far, I don’t know.

“Winning over two-five at Ascot you’d say a shade under two and a half miles round Aintree might just be too sharp for him.

“We’d certainly look at the entries on the day and make a call.”

He added: “I wouldn’t run him unless the ground was right. They do a great job at Aintree, but it would definitely have to be on the soft side and not on the quick side.

“I wouldn’t be worried if we did put him away. There are plenty of nice races next year.”

Jeremy Scott considering best move with Dashel Drasher after Ascot heroics

Jeremy Scott has been taken aback by the reaction to Dashel Drasher’s success in the Betfair Ascot Chase on Saturday.

In providing Scott with a first Grade One victory since Melodic Rendezvous in the 2013 Tolworth Hurdle, the eight-year-old continued his steep upward curve, winning his third race in succession – all at Ascot.

Whether he runs again this season, though, has still to be decided, with Scott considering the Ryanair Chase at Cheltenham and the Bowl at Aintree.

“He’s come out of the race really well,” said Scott.

“Originally I wasn’t that keen to run him again as he’s had three hard races all in a row.

“We’ll look at Cheltenham, but I think that’s unlikely, possibly Aintree, but it’s very much a case of we’ll see how he goes.

“It’s very exciting, but when I looked through there are really very few options. There’s the possibility of Aintree, but he’d probably have to step up to three miles there. Obviously there’s the two-and-a-half-mile race, but on likely quicker ground and a tighter track it could be too sharp for him.

“It will all very much depend on the ground, I wouldn’t want to be running him on fastish ground.

Looking back on the weekend, the Somerset-based trainer said: “To a point I think we were lucky that we ended up in a race with one who was rated immeasurably higher (Cyrname) than the rest of us who were all rated pretty similar.

“The reaction has been absolutely outstanding. People love horses like him who always pull a bit more out of the bag. They really latch on them, it’s lovely.”

Dashel Drasher records landmark Ascot Chase victory

Dashel Drasher delivered a famous Grade One success for trainer Jeremy Scott and jockey Matt Griffiths in the Betfair Ascot Chase.

The front-running eight-year-old, scoring over course and distance for the third time in succession, took on favourite Cyrname early on the final circuit and then outpointed the latter’s stablemate Master Tommytucker up the straight to win by a hard-fought two lengths.

Dashel Drasher, sent off at 4-1, jumped well throughout and, after mastering Cyrname – who was again disappointing and quickly faded to be pulled up – he battled all the way to the line to keep Paul Nicholls’ second string at bay by two lengths.

Somerset trainer Scott was understandably emotional as he reflected on just his second Grade One win – and first in eight years – with a horse he bred as well as trains.

“This is very special, and you could say it was our Gold Cup,” he said.

“I don’t often get emotional, but I definitely had a bit of a welling up there as he won.

“My wife (Camilla) bred his dam – and she went on to win five point-to-points in a row.

“It’s a great thrill – but we had to think we were tilting at windmills against Cyrname.”

Scott need not have worried about that as Griffiths’ determination to put pressure on the favourite from the outset paid off, with Cyrname again failing to rediscover the form which made him the top-rated chaser in Britain after a wide-margin win in this race two years ago.

“At home, he doesn’t blow your socks off – but on the racecourse, he digs deep, doesn’t he,” Scott added.

“Our plan was to put Cyrname under pressure, go out hard and fast.

“But we fluffed the first fence, and Cyrname looked to be cruising away with it.

“But as soon as we got upsides him and went half a length up, he wilted.”

Dashel Drasher, previously successful in handicap and Graduation company this season, was taking a steep rise in class – and also had to turn round Haydock form with Master Tommytucker, who had beaten him by almost 20 lengths there in November.

He has a Cheltenham Festival option in the Ryanair Chase but is no certainty to be going there – this year, at least.

“He’s in the Ryanair Chase, but let’s get him home and see how he is before making any plans,” said Scott.

Matt Griffiths riding Dashel Drasher clear the last but had to battle hard all the way to the line
Matt Griffiths riding Dashel Drasher clear the last but had to battle hard all the way to the line (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

“He had an injury last year, so we’re not that keen to over-race him.”

Scott reserved praise for Griffiths, adding: “It’s great for Matt, who is a stalwart.

“He broke this horse in, as he does most of the horses, and is an integral part of the team.”

There were some anxious moments on the run-in, after Dashel Drasher made his only slight mistake and then began to look vulnerable – but as he has previously, he found more when asked.

Scott added: “In fairness to the horse, every time he has run here, he has done exactly the same thing – and Matt has always said ‘he’s always got a little bit left up his sleeve’.

“So that was kind of what I was hoping – but I have to say, watching it, I wasn’t quite sure. It didn’t look great!”

Griffiths felt he had to be slightly more conservative at the fences than on earlier Ascot visits with Dashel Drasher.

“Today his jumping was efficient, but that’s all,” he said.

“I couldn’t chuck him at the fences like I’d done before.”

The looming presence of Daryl Jacob on Master Tommytucker was an evident concern too, entering the straight, and Dashel Drasher had to be brave as well as accurate to see off the smooth-travelling runner-up.

Griffiths added: “I was wary coming into the straight that Daryl, was right behind me – and when my horse missed the last it was a relief when he picked up again.

“I’ve been part of his life since the first day he ran, so it’s massive to be associated with the horse.

“It’s a dream for everyone at the yard – and especially for Jeremy, because it is his first Grade One win for quite a while, and it makes it extra special that he’s a home-bred.”

Dashel Drasher has improved dramatically at Ascot of late, despite often jumping slightly left, and Griffiths does not anticipate a significant preference to race right-handed will dictate future plans.

He said: “I think he’ll be fine going the other way – even though he does tend to jump to the left, he never does it violently, and I thought he was a bit straighter today.

“If that was his last run of the season it wouldn’t be the end of the world – because next year he will stay further and he could be a Charlie Hall or Hennessy (Ladbrokes Trophy) horse.”

In the British Horseracing Authority stewards report following the race, a respiratory issued was cited by a representative of Nicholls for the performance of Cyrname.

Ascot or Newbury poser for Dashel Drasher

Jeremy Scott was facing a sleepless night on Wednesday deciding whether to send stable star Dashel Drasher to Ascot or Newbury this weekend.

With two wins at Ascot over the two-mile-five-furlong trip of the Betfair Ascot Chase already under his belt this season, that might look the more suitable option. However, Scot is giving serious consideration to the rescheduled Grade Two Denman Chase at Newbury, which would mean a step up to three miles for the first time.

“We have still to decide where to go. He’s a shorter price for the Denman which would indicate somebody thinks he has a better chance in that,” said Scott.

“It’s whether we’d be disadvantaged by running at Newbury. At Ascot he’s won despite jumping a little left.

“If you’d asked me at the beginning of the season where would you rather run, I’d have said Newbury would suit him better.

“We ruled the Denman out originally as it was coming too soon after his last run, but then it reopened and it’s likely to be better ground.

“Would it be daft to run in the Denman? I don’t know, he has been very good around Ascot and it does suit him as he can swing down the hill and get enough back in the tank to come back up the hill. Maybe that suits him.

“If we hadn’t had the confusion of the Denman we’d definitely be at Ascot, as it’s an opportunity to run in a Grade One and if one or two underperformed and we upped our game then it would be happy days.”

Ascot Chase option for Dashel Drasher

Jeremy Scott is thinking of giving Dashel Drasher an entry in the Grade One Betfair Ascot Chase following his game success over the course and distance on Saturday.

The eight-year-old has earned his chance in open company after making virtually all the running to see off Bennys King by a length and a quarter in the bet365 Handicap Chase.

It was his second successive victory over two miles and five furlongs at the Berkshire track and the way Dashel Drasher stuck to his task surprised even his trainer.

“I was really impressed with him. It’s interesting where we go now. He certainly looked more resilient than I possibly gave him credit for,” said Scott.

“He might go back there for the Ascot Chase in a month’s time. That’s a possibility.

“It’s over the same trip. It depends what is kicking around at the time. If he’s all right, he’ll probably have an entry. We’ll see what the opposition is and take it from there.

“He’s got the entry in the Ryanair, which is also a possibility.

“It would be nice to see him step up into graded company.”

Scott would love to see Dashel Drasher move up in class as the Somerset trainer still has his dam, So Long.

“It would also be nice to get some black type for the mare because we’ve still got her,” he said.

“We’ve never quite managed to get any black type, so it would be nice to achieve that.

“The options are open. We’ll see how he comes out of the race – that’s the main thing.”

Dashel Drasher steps up to the mark at Ascot

Dashel Drasher produced a tenacious performance to make every yard of the running and record a second Ascot triumph this season with victory in the bet365 Handicap Chase.

The Jeremy Scott-trained gelding jumped left at several of the fences, only to pull out extra under Matt Griffiths and hold Bennys King by a length and a quarter.

The 6-1 winner set what most observers thought might ultimately prove too frenetic a pace – but he came up for his pilot every time and those jumps enabled him to maintain a largely uncontested lead.

Griffiths said: “It’s massive for Jeremy to have such a nice horse on his hands. Owing to his lack of respect for the fences he wasn’t very good over them to start with, but he’s come good in a big way.

“I was more worried about what would happen over the first four fences, but he was going a gear quicker.

“He’s in the Sky Bet (Chase, at Doncaster), but whether he’ll go to Cheltenham, I don’t know, as he’s had a leg injury in the past. It’s funny he jumps left but has done more of his winning on right-handed courses, and I’m sure he’ll stay further.”

Scott plots light campaign for Sizable Sam

Jeremy Scott will give Sizable Sam a maximum of two more races over hurdles this season before putting him away to go novice chasing next term.

The Somerset trainer plans to step his bright recruit up to three miles in either the Betfair Bet In-Play Handicap Hurdle at Newbury on February 13 or the Grade Two Albert Bartlett Prestige Novices’ Hurdle at Haydock a week later.

Scott is giving Sizable Sam time to recover from a second win in a row at Wincanton on Saturday, when the Black Sam Bellamy gelding outpointed Oneupmanship by half a length over two miles five and a half furlongs.

“He’s grand, as good as gold. I’m very happy with him,” said Scott.

“He has a couple of options. There’s a handicap at Newbury the middle of next month and a three-mile graded race at Haydock. That would be another possibility.

“We’ll know in a week or two how he’s really come out of it.

“He’s an adequate hurdler, but I’d like to think over a fence he’d be more exciting again.

“The plan is for him to go chasing next year. If we got two runs out of him that would be the maximum for the rest of this season.”

Jeremy Scott outlines possible plans for Dashel Drasher

Jeremy Scott is mulling over the options in the next few weeks for Dashel Drasher following his victory at Ascot last month.

The eight-year-old beat Itchy Feet and Caribean Boy when outsider of three in a graduation chase, for which he has been put up 9lb.

Scott is considering the bet365 Handicap Chase back at Ascot on January 23 and the Sky Bet Handicap Chase at Doncaster a week later, as well as the Denman Chase at Newbury on February 13.

“He’s grand. We’re just slightly stuck for options where to run,” said the Somerset trainer.

“There isn’t too much obvious. There’s a handicap back at Ascot over the same trip or we could run in the Denman. You wouldn’t have many runners in that.

“He’s in a funny position. He’s been put up 9lb. You wouldn’t on the face of it say he was well-handicapped. He hasn’t run in a handicap, so we’re in a slightly difficult position at the minute.

“The Sky Bet would certainly be an option. You’d be upping him up to three miles, which on a flat track you’d hope he’d get.

“We had to put the entry in as there are only three or four options between now and the beginning of February. It’s just a case of keeping the options open.”

Trainer Profiles: Jeremy Scott

Hello again, it’s been a while! It goes without saying that I’m delighted to be back “on-grid” and I very much hope that this article is the first of a steady flow over the next few months, writes Jon Shenton.

Expect the usual data-driven analysis in what follows. However, this time I’m going to move ever-so-slightly away from the approach of purely seeking angles and/or system bets. Whilst these are naturally going to be a result of the research, I don’t intend for that to be the be all and end all. In this series, I’m going to delve into the profiles of specific National Hunt trainers. The primary goal is to develop a deeper understanding of the circumstances in which stables excel and/or alternatively where they generally come unstuck.

To kick things off, I’m going to run the rule over the Somerset yard of Grade 1-winning trainer Jeremy Scott. It’s a safe start as this outfit seems to be omnipresent in terms of “good data” and I already have a couple of reasonably robust, well-performing data-driven “ins” which, of course, I’ll share in due course.

Firstly, some light optional reading on the Scott operation. If you have the time it is well worth kicking back with a cuppa and having a mooch around their website. There is an abundance of good info and a blog which is updated with greater regularity than most.

Of course, in addition, the yard also has an indirect affiliation to this very site through its relationship with Geegeez-sponsored conditional jockey Rex Dingle, who rides with regularity for Team Scott. [Rex's day job is centred at the yard of Anthony Honeyball, which you’ll already know is sponsored by Geegeez too].

I’ll be using a mix of Query Tool and Horseracebase for all the data in this article and all analysis relates to 1st Jan 2011 through to 7th November 2020 inclusive.

Jeremy Scott Runners: Performance vs. the Market

Firstly, when developing a feel for a yard, I often begin by examining performance in the context of the market. This gives a solid guide to the relative importance of the weight of money behind a runner from the stable in question. It can often be the case that a line can be struck through horses once they get to more exotic price levels. As a starter for ten the below table shows Scott performance by SP range.


These data have a reasonably clear division between the shorter side of pricing and the more fanciful range of SP’s. Notably, backing all horses indiscriminately where the price is on the skinnier side (equal to or less than 8/1) would result in a reasonable profit. It’s a 9% ROI across 927 runners over the near decade of performance from 2011. That’s an impressive stat and smashes home the mantra that keenly priced runners from this yard are at the very least worth shortlisting. The colour formatting on the ROI column demonstrates this in a clear enough way.

To further evaluate the outfit's overall performance the below graph gives an interesting perspective by comparing the Actual vs Expected market data for Scott runners against all the market averages by SP.


Basically, Scott comfortably outperforms the market across virtually all price bands, reinforcing that this is a trainer to keep firmly in the metaphoric crosshairs. As expected, the results at the prices up to 8/1 generally are north of 1.00, indicating market-beating propensity at these ranges.

The blue “average” line on the graph also demonstrates that if you habitually play at fancy prices then it’s exceedingly difficult, maybe close to impossible, to consistently beat the bookies. With an A/E of below 0.40 for all runners at 50/1 or greater it indicates what an uphill battle it is to prevail against starting price. [The exchanges reflect a more realistic representation of a horses chance of victory in these deep waters].

Circling back to Scott, here is the annualised breakdown of those runners at 8/1 or shorter, underlining that, historically speaking this stable is repeatedly a serious outfit at these prices.


A staggeringly simple and staggeringly consistent punting perspective, notwithstanding the smallest of small blips in a couple of earlier years.

Consequently, given that Scott’s runners are just 34-from-1042 (a little over 3% strike rate) when their SP is greater than 8/1 I’m going to ignore and exclude these runners from all subsequent analysis for the remainder of this article. It doesn’t mean that there isn’t value at some of these larger prices but, for the sake of brevity, starting with the more solid data set of keenly priced horses is a pragmatic option. There is always the chance of throwing the baby out with the bathwater in some cases, however, it’s a risk I’m happy to take.


Jeremy Scott Runners by Race type

When evaluating trainer records in National Hunt racing it is often a hugely worthwhile exercise to perform a check on the numbers by the different disciplines within the sport. It’s surprising quite how many yards display significant variance between the obstacle types. Through separation, value can regularly be attained.


In the case of Scott, there is variance between the chase and hurdle form with the smaller obstacle data being clearly superior. Bumper results are worth a distinct footnote due to their relative strength, albeit that's not an area of focus here.

By zooming in on hurdle form, further differentiation can be established by checking the handicap and non-handicap status of the race:


Again, performance is meritorious across both formats. However, the non-handicap form appears to be particularly noteworthy, with just about a third of runners prevailing and more than half making the frame, comfortably beating market expectations, too.

Evaluating at a slightly deeper level into specific non-handicap race type:


“None of these” relates to Graded/Listed races and all bar one of those runs relate to the stable star, Melodic Rendezvous, who won the G1 Tolworth Hurdle in 2013. That aside, performance in maiden and novice hurdles is exemplary. In fact, we’re into angle territory with this one: I’ll be setting an alert for any Scott runner with an SP of 8/1 or shorter in maiden and novice hurdle events over the coming months and hopefully beyond.


Jeremy Scott Runners by Jockey

Evaluating who are the go-to pilots for Scott is the topic for exploration in this section. It transpires that there are three jockeys who have secured by far the lion's share of rides for Scott during the ten years covered here.


Clearly, based on this table, Rex Dingle has an outstanding record when getting legged up for Scott. Incidentally, I did check and there is not a single winner at a price of greater than 8/1 in his Scott portfolio of rides.

However, there are a couple of considerations worth discussion in the Dingle data. Firstly, he is still is riding as a conditional jockey (now at 3lb claim) and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that his claim has historically been utilised to maximum effect by this trainer. As the claim expires over time, it may be that Dingle is called upon less frequently by the Scott operation. Or perhaps the dynamics of the horses ridden may change resulting in degradation of performance. However, that said, a Scott/Dingle combo at a short to middling price is a clear indication of general intent.

As a bit of a diversion I decided to inspect in detail how these three jockeys performed based on their pace position in the race. It’s in Query Tool so seemed it rude not to!

It may be of marginal benefit to know though, I maintain, interesting, nonetheless, that there is a clear variance in performance and style between the stable jocks.

In particular, the contrast between Scholfield and Griffiths is fascinating.


From the table above it can be seen that Griffiths leads from the front on over 28% of occasions. His performance on these front-running rides is strong, too, with an A/E of 1.44. Scholfield, by contrast, only leads in 13% of races where he’s piloting a Scott horse. (Note, there are some “null” pace scores, when a horse's run style cannot be determined from the in-running comments, which explains why the percentages for each rider do not total 100%).

I wonder if this is purely down to jockey discretion or whether the yard matches horses preferred run styles to the rider. Either way, it may be something to note in the future. A proven front-running or prominent animal with Griffiths jocked up may be upgraded in any shortlist. Scholfield less so obviously.

Dingle, as intimated, excels in most scenarios, although it should be noted that he has only led on five horses in the sample above. Interesting that such an ascendant talent is seemingly content to take a tow into a race with greater regularity than may be anticipated.


Jeremy Scott Runners by Race Class

One of my treasured angles over the past few years is remarkably simple in nature and has been consistently reliable in terms of returns. It relates to following Scott horses in the lower classes of UK National Hunt racing. See if you can spot it in the table below!



Whilst the numbers are solid enough across the board, it’s abundantly clear that Scott is a shrewd operator when placing his charges amongst the lesser lights. In 2020 thus far, for instance, he has a strike rate of four-from-nine; so there is no obvious sign of this letting up just yet. I’m usually inclined to produce deeper analysis and comment but on this occasion it is best to just let the speak for themselves.

For assurance purposes, here is the annualised performance. Of course, there are no guarantees in this game but everything being equal it’s well worth tracking Scott animals lining up in these lower echelons with maximum interest.


Jeremy Scott Runners: Seasonal Performance / Ground conditions

Broadly speaking, trainers are creatures of habit and one factor which is always is worth due care and attention is how a yard's form typically fluctuates across the course of a season or calendar year.  However, it can pay to cross reference this seasonal view with how that stable's horses perform in specific ground conditions, particularly where National Hunt racing is concerned.

The logic for doing so is thus: given that ground conditions tend to be softer over the winter months, it could be easily argued that the primary reason a yard peaks in winter is because their horses are geared toward running in the mud, and not because their horses are highly tuned at that specific time of year.

It probably doesn’t overly matter, as horses that are mudlarks will be trained to peak with winter conditions in mind. However, I do think it’s pragmatic to check as, by focusing on winter (for example) rather than soft ground, it’s possible that other seasons' creditable soft ground performance is missed. Scott is a good case in point.

The two graphs below illustrate the performance by month. The left hand graph demonstrates the rate of return through backing all horses from the Scott yard. On the right is A/E performance relating to the same data. As you’d expect there is a strong correlation between the two.


This is a yard that appears to make hay when the sun starts to shine in the spring. Performance, whilst still of a respectable nature, is a notch or two lower as things progress through to late summer, autumn and into the dark winter months.

Naturally, it might then be expected that this yard would deliver stronger numbers on the slightly quicker ground which is usually more prevalent in the spring and summer months.


Bang in line with expectancy: Good to Soft, Good, and Good to Firm all sit proudly in profitability comparison against their slower ground counterparts. However, note the overall consistency of strike rate, both win and place.

To attempt to understand which of the ground or seasonal aspects is the primary driving force in performance it’s sensible to test the data by dividing it by month and by going. Perhaps it’s easier to explain with a graph. Below, the data show A/E of the yard's runners on good to firm, good and good to soft ground (the blue line). Soft and Heavy are represented by the broken orange bar (May through to September excluded due to small sample sizes).

The data do indicate a bias towards ground conditions being the primary factor rather than time of year. Performance of Scott horses appears to be stronger on the quicker ground across all months. It is also worth noting that the A/E’s of 1.00 or greater in deep ground conditions in March, April, September and November still exceed market expectation: likely profit still, but certainly a reduced edge.


Jeremy Scott Runners by Race Distance

Another element of differentiation of performance within the Scott dataset is race distance. Like many of the other topics, results are strong across the board. However, there is an advantage to consider when evaluating the yard's runners over the shorter or intermediate National Hunt trips, the table below demonstrating this:


A 20% strike rate for races of around three miles and beyond is not to be sniffed at. Nevertheless, it appears as though Squadra Scott has a stronger winning formula at distances towards the lower end of the spectrum. One to be filed under good to know.


Jeremy Scott Runners by Course

Finally, it would be remiss to omit track performance insight when considering any trainer. It’s often one of the first things to evaluate. In terms of Scott, he is an operator who seems to like keeping things close to his Somerset base.  Most of the yard's runners are concentrated across the South West and West Midlands. The data below show track results (at 8/1 or shorter) sorted in A/E order for all courses where Scott saddled 30 or more runners. His local patch of Taunton is clearly a fertile hunting ground, displaying the strongest strike rates and P&L performance, as well as A/E value.



Essentially, it’s a picture of almost metronomic consistency. Perhaps the Taunton data may merit further individual study. However, the excellent all-round performance signifies that course data is of less relevance for Scott than it is for most of his contemporaries. Whist it is always prudent to check performance by track, this insight gives reasonable assurance that achievement is predominantly course agnostic.


Jeremy Scott Trainer Profile: The Summary

There is a lot to consider when weighing up runners from the Jeremy Scott yard and none of the data are mutually exclusive. Based on the analysis above, the identikit Scott runner might be:

  • Keenly Priced (8/1 or shorter)
  • Maiden or novice Hurdle
  • Good to soft or quicker ground
  • Rex Dingle as jockey (or perhaps a Matt Griffiths front runner)
  • Less than 2 mile 7 furlongs in distance
  • Class 5 or 6 Race
  • And perhaps at Taunton!

Incidentally, and probably not surprisingly, this perfect cocktail has never happened yet. But when the stars align, I’ll be ready! I’m a patient man.

Until next time.

- JS

Stat of the Day, 17th March 2020

Monday's pick was...

3.40 Kelso : Calle Malva @ 4/1 BOG 2nd at 7/2 (Held up in 5th, outpaced after 3 out, rallied chasing leaders before last, went right and every chance last, ridden and no extra run-in, beaten by 2 lengths)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

3.25 Taunton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.


Seeanythingyoulike @ 7/2 BOG an 8-runner, Class 4, Novices Handicap Chase for 5yo+ over 2m2f on soft ground worth £5,458 to the winner...


On a dismal-looking day of racing with small fields on poor ground, I see a lot of fancied runners at such short prices that they offer little value to us and I admit to having scratched around a little looking for a selection, but this horse just kept popping up on my lists of angles qualifiers.

There's precious little decent form on offer from any of the runners here, but our pick did at least win by 21 lengths three starts ago on New Year's Eve on similarly soft ground. He was 3rd of 12 last time out, but that's a little flattering, as he was actually beaten by 28 lengths that day, but I feel it might have been one race too many as it was his third in a month, which might have been too much for a 9 yr old on constantly poor ground.

Now rested for 44 days and eased 3lbs by the assessor, I'd expect a better show today, especially with him appearing in many of my daily stat lists and here are just a handful of those angles...

1. Trainer Jeremy Scott's runners are 13 from 30 (43.3% SR) for 20.9pts (+69.7% ROI) here at Taunton when sent off at Evens to 6/1 since the start of 2016.

2. Of those 30 runners, today's jockey, Matt Griffiths has 6 wins from 14 (42.9% SR) for 12.2pts (+87.3% ROI)

3. In fact, Jeremy only sends on average three handicap chasers per year to this track (19 since the start of 2014) and aside from being 0/1 here so far this year, he has had a winner in each of the last six years in a record reading 6/19 (31.6% SR) for 27.1pts (+142.8% ROI), including..

  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 14.6pts (+112.3%) at odds of 6/4 to 6/1
  • 3/7 (42.9%) for 14pts (+200%) for Matt Griffiths
  • and 3/6 (50%) for 15pts (+250%) for Matt Griffiths at 6/4 to 6/1

4. More generally in that same 2014-20 period, Jeremy Scott's Class 4 handicap chasers sent off at 4/1 and shorter are 27 /75 (36% SR) for 31.1pts (+41.5% ROI)

5. Whilst since the start of 2017, his NH handicappers sent off at 5/1 or shorter on soft or worse ground are 27 from 86 (+31.4% SR) for 23.6pts (+27.5% ROI)

...all of which led me to...a 1pt win bet on Seeanythingyoulike @ 7/2 BOG as was available from BetVictor & Hills at 8.10am Tuesday with plenty of 10/3 BOG elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting... here for the betting on the 3.25 Taunton

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Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!