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2019 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Trends

Run over 1m4f the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One contests that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3 or older and staged at Longchamp racecourse.

In recent years the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 17 winners being aged 3 years-old, while 12 of the last 17 - came here off the back of a last time out victory. Last year we saw the John Gosden-trained Enable land the race for a second time and if lining-up again in 2019 will be looking to become the first horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe three times.

However, being drawn in stall 9 and with the race only seeing two 5 year-old winners since 1976, is the superstar mare - Enable - up against it?

As always, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the 2019 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – this year run on Sunday 6th October.

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Recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners

2018 - Enable (Evs)
2017 – Enable (10/11 fav)
2016 – Found (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (9/2)
2014 – Treve (11/1)
2013 – Treve (9/2)
2012 – Solemia (33/1)
2011 – Danedream (20/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008 – Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007 – Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006 – Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005 – Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004 – Bago (10/1)
2003 – Dalakhani (9/4)
2002 – Marienbard (158/10)

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

16/17 – Had won a Group 1 race before
15/17 – Had won over 1m4f before
13/17 – Had 4 or more runs that season
13/17 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/17 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
12/17 – Had won at least 5 times before
12/17 – Won last time out
11/17 – Aged 3 years-old
11/17 – Had run at Longchamp before
10/17 – Had won at Longchamp previously
9/17 – Placed favourites
8/17 – Female winners
8/17 – Won by a French-based yard
7/17 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
5/17 – Winning favourites
5/17 – Won by a UK-based yard
2/17 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 7 times in all)
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
3 of the last 10 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 7/1
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 4 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 2 winners aged 5 or older
18 of the last 25 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times

 

 

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Monday Musings: Autumnal Themes

So far the 2019 Flat-race season has been a re-affirmation that John Gosden knows how to keep his top horses going season after season, writes Tony Stafford. Stradivarius has proved to be invincible once more among the stayers, collecting a second £1 million bonus for owner-breeder Bjorn Neilsen and now Enable is on the brink of a third successive Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe for Prince Khalid Abdullah. By the way, Lord North on Saturday confirmed that whichever three-year-old turns up from Clarehaven in the Cambridgeshire, it is likely to win. The amazing thing about Lord North’s smooth success on Saturday was that he was available at 10-1 in the morning – backed down to 9-2 favouritism on the day.

But one unexpected sidebar to the Gosden pre-eminence, as that is what it has become at the top level for older horses at any rate – Too Darn Hot, until his injury-prompted mid-season retirement to stud and the unbeaten St Leger winner Logician adding to the legend – is that his two-year-olds have been less involved than in previous years.

Obviously there have been successes, 21 wins from 78 runs this year and those 21 victories were provided by 17 of the 37 juveniles sent to the track by Gosden. It was interesting to note, though, that he was unrepresented either in last weekend’s Mill Reef at Newbury or any of the two-year-old Group races run at Newmarket on Saturday. Furthermore, from an entry of 37 for the Dewhurst Stakes, won last year by Too Darn Hot, he has only one possible representative, the unbeaten Palace Pier, twice a winner around Sandown and each time offering promise for the future.

It would not be a total shock if the Kingman colt were to flex his muscles next week, but as he is in the ownership of Sheikh Hamdan, the Maktoum family will probably be anxious for him to avoid the outstanding Pinatubo in that championship-defining contest.

Godolphin now have a second Group 1-winning and unbeaten juvenile on their hands in the Andre Fabre-trained Earthlight, who made it five in a row when confirming earlier Deauville superiority over Golden Horde  in the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes, one of three juvenile Group races on the Newmarket Saturday card sponsored by Enable’s owners. The solidity of that heavy ground Prix Morny form had been temporarily questioned when Raffle Prize, who had split the two colts in France, succumbed half an hour earlier to a strong late run from the Irish filly Millisle in the Cheveley Park Stakes, but Earthlight’s workmanlike victory restored the lustre.

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Earthlight, like Pinatubo, is a son of the Darley stallion Shamardal who has been making strides as a solid back-up act to Dubawi for some time. Hugh Anderson, Godolphin’s managing director, was suggesting after the race that having restricted him to “private” with 75 family mares only having access to him in recent years, his services may be thrown open to the wider bloodstock industry.

Shamardal’s exploits, especially in producing two such outstanding juveniles so far into his stud career – he was foaled in 2002 – as well as the outstanding sprinter Blue Point, retired to stud after his Royal Ascot double this June, reflect well on Darley’s handling of him at Kildangan Stud in Ireland.

A son of ‘the Iron Horse’, Giant’s Causeway, he was unbeaten at two for Mark Johnston when his all-the-way Dewhurst success over Oratorio brought championship honours for 2004. Transferred to Godolphin and Saeed bin Suroor, his stock briefly slipped when an unplaced favourite finishing far behind a 33-1 stable-companion in the UAE Derby the following spring. That was soon forgotten though when, returned to Newmarket under the stewardship of bin Suroor, he took both the French 2,000 Guineas and Derby before ending his racecourse career with a win in the St James’s Palace Stakes, transferred to York while Ascot was under re-construction. Thus his career ended with a single loss in seven starts.

As with Galileo, whose original two crops were spread around the upper-to-middle echelons of trainers before Coolmore stepped in to take a near-monopoly after his merit became unquestionable, Shamardal similarly provided winners for many stables around Europe from his early crops. It took a good deal longer than was the case with Galileo and Dubawi before his stock became more difficult to secure. I reckon Gleneagles, possibly Galileo’s fastest son and, like Shamardal a champion juvenile and a 2,000 Guineas winner, in his case at Newmarket, will very quickly become a protected species by his Coolmore owners.

His first crop have already produced a couple of Group winners, Royal Dornoch in Saturday’s Royal Lodge at Newmarket (still sounds wrong to me) outbattling favourite Kameko to follow Royal Lytham (July Stakes). The fact that Royal Dornoch’s win came over a mile and in track record time fuels optimism that at three some of his colts and fillies could stretch to a mile and a half with chances of winning a Derby or an Oaks. Whatever the outcome of that always-intriguing question with new stallions, there is no question that the Gleneagles’ are showing similar battling qualities to progeny of their paternal grandfather.

Having so far missed the pleasures of the new Parislongchamp, I’m optimistic I might get a late invitation for next Sunday. It would be great to see Enable one last time – maybe I should have gone to the Newmarket open day to see her cantering up the hill last weekend as many others did.

One of the anomalies of the great mare’s career is that unlike her sire, Nathaniel, and Frankel, his paternal half-brother whom he ran close on their respective debuts on the July Course, she has never raced on either track in the town where she has been trained throughout her career. In that regard therefore, her appearance on the Rowley Mile last week for a gallop in advance of next Sunday’s swan-song was a notable coup for Michael Prosser, Newmarket’s Director of Racing. A top priced 5-4 on chance with the bookmakers for the Arc, she faces strong opposition with the two three-year-old colts, Sottsass for France and Japan for Ballydoyle, the Coolmore team in particular likely to pose very serious examinations for her. If she comes through this test she will be garlanding her amazing story with an appropriate conclusion.

*

Thoughts are not quite turning to jumping yet but it was in some ways ironic that the McCoys awards dinner in London last week had to go on without Sir Anthony. The great man, fresh from showing his enduring horsemanship when winning the Legends race at the St Leger meeting, was instead indulging in his other great autumn obligation. Every year he competes alongside but in opposition to his old boss J P McManus at the prestigious Dunhill Links Pro-Am golf event in Scotland. While I’m hardly a golf devotee, I had a quick check on Sunday morning to see how the boys had been going with their respective pro partners. Sadly neither was in contention and matters did not improve for either yesterday.

But Jamie Redknapp certainly was. Partnered with Luke Donald, who went round in 64, eight under par, on Saturday, Redknapp contributed another seven points in their better-ball score, taking his handicap into account. That made for an almost surreal 15 under par 57. He must have been an even bigger blot on that handicap than Lord North in the Cambridgeshire! Unlike Gosden winners of that race who tend to end up winning Group races for fun next time out, Redknapp junior and Donald could not sustain the form and faded away out of contention yesterday at St Andrews.

The Raymond Tooth team, still struggling for runners, will be hoping that the requisite five of the 19 horses at present endangering the participation of Waterproof at Kempton on Wednesday will have the decency to vacate their places. He was raised only 2lb for a good second there two weeks ago and Shaun Keightley was due to school him over hurdles this morning. He had his first “look” at the small ones before that last run at Kempton and showed promise. Hopefully he’ll get a run and win this week and then we’ll be looking for somewhere like Huntingdon for a jumps debut. It would be nice for Ray to have another decent hurdler, although it’s hard to imagine he’ll ever be another Punjabi. Then again, there’s always hope. Then again, it’s the hope that kills you…

Monday Musings: Trials and undulations

After 2,000 Guineas number ten, on Sunday we had a fifth 1,000 Guineas, again not with the most expected candidate, for Aidan O’Brien and so it went on with the Derby Trials, writes Tony Stafford. Circus Maximus (Dee Stakes), Anthony Van Dyck (Lingfield Derby Trial) and Broome (Derrinstown Stud Stakes) were all favourites when winning their Epsom preps, but Sir Dragonet, a Shergar-like winner of the Chester Vase, emphatically was not.

It’s just a year short of 40 since Shergar exploded around Chester to propel himself into Derby favouritism. My recollection of a 20-length margin was corrected by Wikepedia early this morning which relates to a 12-length win but in an article which suggests a non-racing author. I looked in vain once again for the 1980 form book!

What is not in question is the ten-length romp at Epsom for which I watched sat next to John Oaksey overlooking the old paddock there. For some reason I had been co-opted to “help” the Noble Lord but what assistance I actually provided I cannot recall. It was great of course to be at Epsom for one of the epic Derby performances.

Sir Dragonet is NOT a son of Galileo. Neither is Broome, although he is from the first crop of Galileo’s Derby winning son, Australia. Anthony van Dyck and Circus Maximus do have the standard Coolmore Galileo branding but Sir Dragonet is a son of Coolmore’s other multiple Derby winner producer, Montjeu.

Three weeks ago Sir Dragonet had never even been heard of outside his stable. When he turned up at Tipperary on April 25 he was a 14-1 debutant, ridden by Seamus Heffernan in a mile and a half maiden where another son of Camelot, the previously once-raced King Pellinore was a 4-5 shot.

In the manner of races where the ground changes to soft, the field swung around the final left-hand turn and aimed for the stands side, causing traffic problems for a number of horses, notably King Pellinor. Those who laid the odds soon knew their fate, Donnacha O’Brien giving up the ghost some way from home.

Meanwhile the stable neglected was being guided from some way behind to the inside, getting a clear run. He still needed a fair engine to sweep past the entire field to win by three clear lengths, so it was possibly a surprise that he could start as big as 13-2 for his Chester challenge 13 days later.

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This time Donnacha had the mount as Ryan Moore partnered the dual winner Norway (9-2) in a seven-horse field. O’Brien sat a long last as Dashing Willoughby set a good pace, but could be seen making very comfortable ground on the outside coming to the last half-mile of the 12-furlong test.

The result was never in doubt, Sir Dragonet drawing clear to win by eight lengths from a staying-on Norway with the rest trailing in at intervals. Sir Dragonet, despite no direct Galileo-ness, does have an element of the great sire’s bloodline as his dam, Sparrow, is a grand-daughter of Urban Sea, via Galileo’s full-sister, All Too Beautiful, herself runner-up to Ouija Board in the 2004 Oaks.

Urban Sea’s other main claim to fame of course is as dam of a second Derby winner in Sea The Stars, who for good measure also collected the 2,000 Guineas on the way. Camelot for his part, would have preceded the two now Coolmore-owned US Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify by becoming the first English Triple Crown winner since Nijinsky in 1970 bar Encke’s intervention. Encke, clean on the day, was subsequently found to have been one of the Godolphin horses under the disgraced Mahmoud Al Zarooni’s care to have traces of a steroid in his system.

It would require an £85,000 supplementary entry fee for Sir Dragonet to take his place in the Investec Derby in just short of three weeks, probably not an insurmountable problem. I think he’ll win at Epsom and as Aidan O’Brien has said since his Chester win, the colt needed to go there for his education. At no stage did he seem to need much more tuition and O’Brien’s and the Coolmore team’s seventh success in the Classic is most likely to come from him.

As mentioned before, Telecaster will also require supplementing for Epsom should he convince his owners, Castle Down Racing, by his performance in Thursday’s Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes at York.

Over the years the Dante has been the best of the trials and to win it Telecaster, yet to race out of maiden company, will need to beat last year’s champion juvenile Too Darn Hot (John Gosden and the Lloyd Webbers) and O’Brien’s Japan, for some time regarded as Ballydoyle’s prime Derby hope.

Like Anthony Van Dyck, so comfortable at Lingfield on Saturday, Japan reportedly had a minor setback around a month ago. He narrowly won the Beresford Stakes (Group 2) from stablemate Mount Everest last September but has not appeared since.

Should Telecaster come through the test on Thursday, Hughie Morrison and his owners, brother and sister Mark Weinfeld and Helena Ellingsen, will have to restore their home-bred to the race from which he was a March withdrawal, a few weeks before his promising second to Bangkok on debut at Doncaster.

As with Too Darn Hot, unable to take up his planned date at the yearling sale, Telecaster would normally have found other owners but nobody would pay the price and he was retained for 180,000gns.

The family race their fillies in the well-known name and black and white colours as Helena Springfield Ltd and they were prominent last week. On Friday their Twist ‘n’ Shake, a daughter of Kingman, romped away with a Nottingham maiden after making all the running; then on Saturday, Anapurna, by Frankel, cantered clear of her Lingfield Oaks Trial opposition under Frankie Dettori.

Afterwards, an elated John Gosden was happy to add her to his similarly-easy Cheshire Oaks heroine Mehdaayih as Oaks-bound. If O’Brien apparently has the Derby covered – unless Too Darn Hot or one of the others on Thursday argues otherwise - Gosden surely is more likely to collect a third Oaks rather than O’Brien recording number eight.

This weekend’s highlight will be the always-informative Lockinge Stakes at Newbury where the ante-post favourite is Le Brivido ahead of Magical and the wonderful Laurens. Le Brivido ran an astonishing first race for O’Brien – transferred from Andre Fabre – when third after rearing at the start at Naas, staying on strongly into third.

Le Brivido won last year’s Jersey Stakes in the colours of Prince Faisal bin Khaled and judged on that Naas comeback could be an upwardly-mobile performer for Prince Faisal and his new partner Michael Tabor.

*Exciting Flat Racehorse Syndicate Opportunity*

I was at Newmarket sales at the end of last week, and I put my hand up for one. He's nice, and I'd be very hopeful he'll provide a lot of fun. He'll be going to a new trainer to the geegeez syndicate roster, a shrewd man who performs extremely well with his sales acquisitions. The plan is to syndicate this beautifully bred, exciting and unexposed horse - who cost 525,000 guineas as a yearling - into twelve shares. Read on if this might be of interest to you...

The Horse

By top US stallion Speightstown, out of a well-related Listed-placed daughter of Galileo, it is no surprise that ELHAFEI made more than half a million as a yearling. He is a smasher, as you can see from the image below (click on it to view it full screen). He was originally sold from the prestigious October Book 1 sale at Newmarket in October 2016 and sent into training with John Gosden.

Elhafei parades before the Newmarket sale at which geegeez.co.uk acquired him

Elhafei parades before the Newmarket sale at which geegeez.co.uk acquired him

Owned by the al Maktoum family, he ran just five times in the colours of Sheik Hamdan's daughter. The first of those was when a four length fourth of eleven at Lingfield 18 months ago. There, he was slowly away, swung wide into the straight and finished off very well. Horses behind him that day included Kassar, subsequently a close second in a Glorious Goodwood handicap and now rated 96.

That was November 2017, after which he was put away to strengthen before coming back in the famous Alex Scott Maiden at Newmarket's Craven meeting in April last year. Sent off the 9/4 favourite, he finished fifth, beaten five lengths. In front that day were Ibraz (current OR 91) and winner Aurum (OR 100); behind were the likes of Epaulement (OR 97), Bawaasil (OR 88), and in total eight winners of 14 races subsequently.

Next up was a mile novice stakes at Newmarket in mid-May, where Elhafei finished an ostensibly disappointing 8th of 14. However, the form has turned out to be very good: winner Wadilsafa is now rated 112, second placed Herculean is rated 91, the third is rated 84, the fifth 105, the seventh 100. Elhafei was eighth. Behind him was Lexington Empire, now rated 89. The field has subsequently shared fifteen wins between nine individual horses.

Elhafei is led around the paddock before going under the hammer, Newmarket, May 2019

Elhafei is led around the paddock before going under the hammer, Newmarket, May 2019

That was Elhafei's third start and thus earned him an opening handicap mark. Racing off 74 in a seven furlong Yarmouth handicap, he finished second of twelve to Beachwalk. That horse was subsequently sold for 55,000 guineas to race in Qatar. Behind Elhafei at Yarmouth were Arigato (now rated 83); Real Estate, a winner yesterday; and Nicklaus, now rated 93. The field has since won 13 races between them.

Elhafei had just one more race for John Gosden and his previous owner, when disappointing a little in midfield behind Icart Point and the re-opposing Arigato. Icart Point is now known as Speedy Luck having been sold privately to Hong Kong.

Since that time, Elhafei has been used as a lead horse for some of Gosden's younger inmates. That tells us three things:
1 he has had no injury problems (though he has been gelded since his last run)
2 he is no slouch as he'll be leading Group-class juniors (!)
3 he is at least partially fit - as you can see from the images - meaning we'll hope to be on the track sooner rather than later

But who will train him?

 

The Trainer

Regular readers of geegeez.co.uk will know I've always been a very keen student of trainer form, and particularly of trainer specialisms. Our chosen trainer is a dab hand with horses purchased from the sales, especially when they have low mileage and a potential kink to iron out. In the case of Elhafei, there are no kinks, though he was apparently not a 'good grubber' according to our man at Clarehaven Stables. That can happen at bigger yards where a one size fits all approach is adopted; so one needs a handler who takes the time to get to know exactly what is required to elicit improvement from a happier horse.

Step forward Michael 'Mick' Appleby. Mick is brilliant at eking out more from his horses, and I was amazed when I went through a few of his more recent sales purchases. Take a look at the below:

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Of course, there are examples of horses which haven't gone forward and that's the chance every buyer at the sales takes. We are no different. But, in purchasing a horse with form which is probably a few pounds better than it looks, and in selecting a trainer who has a proven track record of success with such types, we give ourselves the best chance of some fun!

Mick is based in Rutland, in a village called Langham, which is conveniently central for a syndicate whose members may be scattered across the land. I've not yet been to visit but hope to go in the next fortnight to see how Elhafei is settling in.

 

The Syndicate / Costs

Elhafei will be syndicated into twelve shares and he will race on the flat, both turf and all weather. The syndicate will run for one full year with the intention of offering him back at the same sale next year unless a unanimous vote elects to retain the horse. This way, all members know the extent of their financial outlay at the beginning, and can expect a return at the end of the term (assuming the horse is sold).

The twelve shares are available for £4,000 each. Alternatively, £2,500 up front and a further £500 on the 1st of each of August 2019, November 2019, and February 2020.

Approximate costs are as follows:

Purchase: 20,000 Guineas = £21,000, plus VAT = £25,200

Syndicate setup (VAT, bank account, registration, silks, etc) : c.£1,000

Training, keep, jockeys, racecourse travel, farrier, dentist, routine vet treatment: c.£24,000 for the year

Contingency: £2,000

Total: £48,000 excluding the VAT which will be reclaimed and used to support the funding of the syndicate.

N.B.: The horse will not be insured. Individual syndicate members have the option to insure their share if they'd like to.

Shareholders will receive a pro rata percentage of any/all prize money and sales revenue.

A full syndicate agreement is available by contacting me via the Contact Page here.

 

What do I get?

As well as being a fully fledged (part-) owner, your horse is your passport to the inner circle of racing. You will be able to visit the Mick Appleby yard, both on scheduled syndicate visits and, by arrangement, at other times convenient to you.

Further, you'll receive news and updates on Elhafei's progress, running plans and performance expectations (perhaps I should say aspirations - nobody has a crystal ball!).

And, of course, you'll be able to attend Elhafei's races as an owner, with all the privileges that go with that: access to the Owners' & Trainers' lounge, the parade ring and owners' viewing facilities. If/when your horse wins, you'll be able to stand in the winner's enclosure and have your photograph taken before enjoying a glass of fizz and watching a re-run of the race.

At the end of it all, we hope to have many great days at the races and memories to cherish. From any prize money won and from the sale of the horse at the end of the term, there will be a dividend payable to all twelve syndicate members representing 1/12th of the account balance. Although, as you can see above, some lucky owners in Mick's yard have enjoyed a positive return on investment, nobody should view this venture as part of an investment portfolio.

I know I don't need to say that, but I want to be absolutely clear: this syndicate is offered as a leisure activity which has some potential to offer a return. The strong balance of probabilities is that the return will be less than the entry fee; but that is not really the point. The point is that, through Elhafei and Mick, we have a chance to get a lot closer to the sport we love, to dare to dream a little, and to cheer our lad home whenever and wherever he runs.

 

What now?

As I've stated, there are twelve shares available. As I always do, I will be taking one; I have informal interest in four more without having mentioned this outside of a couple of chats with friends (who happen to be in other syndicates as well - you also get to hang out with me if that isn't a disincentive!!). I'd like to get the syndicate framed as quickly as possible so we can get on with the business of enjoying the ride, starting with a stable visit probably around the beginning of June.

If you have any questions, would like to view the syndicate agreement and/or if you'd like to reserve a share, please drop me a line via the contact form here. I'm really excited to be involved in a horse on the flat this season, and to have it trained by someone as capable as Mick Appleby, and to be able to share that buzz with like-minded geegeez readers.

So do get in touch if this is an opportunity for you.

Thanks for reading,

Matt

Stat of the Day, 28th March 2019

Wednesday's pick was...

3.35 Lingfield : Harry Callahan @ 7/2 BOG 3rd at 7/4 (Mid-division, headway over 4f out, led over 2f out, headed over 1f out, no extra final furlong)

Thursday's pick runs in the...

2.50 Wolverhampton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Gantier 3/1 BOG

...in a 6-runner, Class 4, A/W Handicap for 3yo over 1m4f on Tapeta worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?...

Here we have a 3 yr old son of Frankel who seems to haven taken to the A/W quite well, finishing 2212 in four efforts so far and was only beaten the 0.75 lengths LTO 5 weeks ago here at Wolverhampton over 9.5 furlongs. He was staying on well enough that day against a short priced jolly and I think the extra 2.5 furlongs today will suit him. He's trainer John Gosden's only runner at the meeting and will be partnered by Kieran O'Neill, which I'm happy about, because...

...Gosden + O'Neill = 13 from 59 (22% SR) for 36.7pts (+62.2% ROI), from which...

  • 9 from 33 (27.3%) for 32.1pts (+97.2%) on the A/W, including...
  • 3 from 8 (37.5%) for 15.65pts (+195.7%) here at Wolverhampton, which isn't too surprising when you realise/consider that...

...John Gosden + Wolverhampton + Tapeta = 65/188 (34.6% SR) for 24.9pts (+13.3% ROI) from blindly backing all his runners here! If you wanted to be more selective, you could look at the following angles at play today...

  • sub-5/1 shots are 63/141 (44.7%) for 42.2pts (+30%) and you could realistically stop here
  • 3 yr olds are 33/97 (34%) for 12.84pts (+13.2%)
  • 21-60 days since last run = 23/53 (43.4%) for 27.9pts (+52.7%)
  • up in trip by 1 to 2.5 furlongs = 14/40 (35%) for 21.2pts (+53.1%)
  • over this 1m4f course and distance : 6/12 (50%) for 13pts (+108.3%)

...and from the above... 3yr olds sent off shorter than 5/1, 21 to 60 days after last outing are 11 from 24 (45.8% SR) for 10.7pts (+44.6% ROI), with those stepping up in trip winning 7 of 13 (53.9%) for 9.02pts (+69.4%).

And finally for today, with Mr Gosden having just one runner at this venue, it might interest some of you to know that since 2013 when sending just one runner to a track that day, those horses are 63/249 (25.3% SR) for 36pts (+14.4% ROI) profit in handicaps, from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 47/185 (25.4%) for 15.8pts (+8.54%)
  • 11-45 days since last run : 48/180 (26.7%) for 52.3pts (+29.1%)
  • prize of £8k or less : 40/168 (23.8%) for 11.89pts (+7.1%)
  • males : 42/166 (25.3%) for 38.3pts (+23.1%)
  • Class 4/5  : 35/140 (25%) for 20.71pts (+14.8%)
  • on the A/W : 30/124 (24.2%) for 13.6pts (+11%)
  • up in trip by 0.5 to 3 furlongs : 29/99 (29.3%) for 54pts (+54.6%)
  • and over this 1.5 mile trip : 6/23 (26.1%) for 5.7pts (+24.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Gantier 3/1 BOG which was widely available at 5.35pm on Wednesday. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 2.50 Wolverhampton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Early Season Turf Pointers

April trainers

With Cheltenham now a fading speck on the horizon our next scheduled stop is the cavalry charge of the Lincoln in only a few days time, writes Jon Shenton. The shackles of winter are off (hopefully), Spring has sprung, and the flat turf season is well and truly on the way.

It’s without doubt my favourite time of year, certainly in terms of the racing calendar. The promise of the long, warm summer nights and a plethora of punting challenges stokes the fires like no other.

Conventional wisdom is that bettors should tread very carefully in the opening few weeks of the season whilst form-lines are built. Whilst that might be true to an extent if you’re a pure race reader it is certainly of less relevance to the data driven approach that I primarily use.

Horses having long absences, an array of new talent on show and highly variable underfoot conditions all contribute to devilishly difficult puzzles. Data can be your friend and ally under these circumstances and it can give you an edge on the general population.

A sensible point to start would be evaluating trainer angles for April performance.

The below table shows the April numbers, sorted by A/E and only including the usual SP of 20/1 or shorter animals. All races since 2012 are analysed.

 

One can clearly delve into any of these further. It’s certainly of interest that the highly populated Fahey yard is profitable over a high volume of runners. The same applies to Gosden, O’Meara, Appleby (Charlie), Haggas and Beckett. If they’re delivering runners to the track in April, then these data give a degree of confidence that they are likely to be competitive.

In pole position, however, is the veteran trainer Mick Easterby. He will be 88 years-old at the end of this month! If at a similar age I’m lucky enough to be around, I’d be hugely disappointed to be still working (understatement!) so it surely shows the enthusiasm he has for the game. Those rich experiences over the years certainly seem to have been put to good use in getting the yard's runners blasting out of the stalls early.

The April output is impressive with an A/E of 1.61, a nice strike rate (19%) and an ROI of 41% is more than welcome.

Evaluating performance against SP there is no winner at 18/1 or 20/1 from 26 attempts so from an angle point of view I’m going to exclude those personally. I do realise entirely that this may be folly, mathematically you’d only expect 1-ish winner from 26 attempts at those odds. But given the number of angles I operate and the relatively high number of daily bets I’m always happy to be more selective and potentially leave a winner or two on the bench.

Taking the 16/1 (SP) or shorter only it leaves 129 runs, of which 123 are in handicaps of some description. The remaining half-dozen non-handicappers have failed to register a single win. It’s clearly a yard focussed more on handicap racing so I’m happy to trim the angle accordingly again.

I also want to understand if April performance is uncharacteristically positive against the rest of the year. It could be that the basis of this angle applies to other months.

The graph below effectively puts the notion of strong other periods of the year to bed. It overwhelmingly illustrates the peak month for Easterby is April, with spikes in both win and placed rates in the month. It’s generally downhill from there as the season progresses.

 

Finally, to understand the consistency of the potential angle, a check of performance by year is helpful. Doing so we get the following split:

 

29 wins from 123 runs, 1.79 A/E with a 78% ROI. That’ll do for me. With no fallow year since 2014 this goes into my active angles as one to follow. Ordinarily these should go through a bit of testing before committing, but where’s the fun in that? I’ll be live with this in April, trying to get early prices. A high volume, small stakes approach mitigates the risk to some degree and enhances the entertainment value exponentially!

Back Mick Easterby in April handicaps at 16/1 or less on turf

Your first 30 days for just £1

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Working down the list sequentially, the second-best performer in terms of A/E is John Quinn. The Yorkshire stable is a powerhouse of racing in the North. Around two thirds of his April runs are on relatively local Yorkshire tracks.
Starting with the April performance vs. rest of year this time we have the following by win strike rate:

 

On the chart I have marked the April data point with a red circle. Like Mick Easterby, it is clearly a landmark month for the stable.

A point of note, the March number is only representative of a handful of runners (15), and the same applies to November’s apparently phenomenal peak (17) so it’s easy ignore these months given the paucity of data.

Also, like the Easterby angle there is no winner at 18/1 to 20/1 so a small snip to the criteria to only take account of SP’s 16/1 or shorter is my personal choice. Looking at the annual performance there are two poor yyear, 2013 and 2014, which weirdly are also the same as Easterby. It might be that those were particularly cold or wet springs, leaving the horses a little short in their work, though that is no more than conjecture.

 

 

I’ve poked around looking for other trends or items of note with these data. In truth though, nothing stands out and there is usually little point in forcing it, such efforts usually leading to at least a degree of backfitting. Simple is best.

Back John Quinn runners at 16/1 or less on turf in April

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Maiden & Novices

The onset of a new season means an absolute battalion of untried, untested and unraced 2YO’s will all hit the track for the first time. Like a lot of readers I don’t generally play in this type of race. Paddock judging is out personally, aside from worldly insight such as “that’s a big horse” and “that one looks a bit fired up” I have nothing to offer in this field, though I very much respect those who can read the confirmation, maturity and fitness of these babies. I have limited sources (i.e. none) of yard and course chat so the only thing in my armoury is my old mate, data.

From 2012 to date there have been no less than 14,911 horses making their racetrack debuts on turf as two-year olds in maiden or novice races. Changes to the novice programme in 2017 do make individual analyses on Maidens or Novice races more difficult on a like for like basis which is the reason that I’ve compiled them together.

This time I’m going to evaluate yards with a high number of runners, searching for the good and the not so good. The relatively massive table below shows first time out trainer performance in maiden and novices from 2012 onwards. I have elected to leave an SP filter out of the equation for this data set. The logic behind that is with debutants you could argue that the market is more likely to get it wrong and big priced winners could be more prevalent. This may or may not be true but that is the rationale for leaving the data as “pure” as possible.

 

As you might expect, there are some wild variations in performance. Firstly, the ones to potentially avoid, out at least around which to be wary.

Messrs Bell, Stoute and Easterby (Tim not Mick!) have a quite frankly appalling record under these conditions. In fact, the volume of combined winners is of such paucity that I can add it up confidently in my head without consulting any technology.

41 wins from 743 runners (I did have to check the runner number with a calculator). A strike rate of just 5.6%, with a combined loss of about 46% in terms of ROI. Good luck with that!

Of course, we know that SMS famously nurtures his charges along at a careful pace, so it makes complete sense for him to be here. The others are possibly more surprising. Geegeez Gold is of huge assistance in alerting you to these red flags on the trainer icon on the racecard, showing FTO performance of that trainer for the last two years.

Back to the macro-level data in the table relating to the last 6 years. The only trainers eking out a profit in the list are John Gosden and Andrew Balding. Gosden has the most impressive strike rate, 18.6%, on the table too. I must confess, I did find this a tad surprising so with a degree of curiosity I investigated it further.

Zooming in on monthly performance is logical in my mind. The early season calendar is rife with sprints. Short distance blasts are not something you’d ordinarily associate Johnny G with so might expect performance to be less positive early in the season in maidens/novices;

Sure enough, volume of runners, strike rate and ROI all improve as we  move into and through through the hot summer (ha ha). Indeed, Too Darn Hot (August), Cracksman (October) and Coronet (September) all prevailed on their debut run in recent years.

In general terms you might think that Gosden’s strong hand of 2YO’s will be focussed towards the future, and specifically their 3YO campaigns. In fact, it’s quite common that he waits until his charges are three before giving them their first run: La Ti Dar is perhaps the best recent case in point.

To be honest, despite knowing all this there is not enough here to generate a sufficiently strong angle for me. I have evaluated race class, sex of horse and a number of other variables but there is nothing of huge significance. That said, I’d always be very mindful of a Gosden debutant once we get beyond the summer solstice and maybe play on that basis, but it’s certainly not for me in terms of a discreet “system” to run with.

Given the sheer heft of runners (633) and the worthy A/E attainment (0.99) it would be slightly remiss not to comment on the Fahey operation a bit further. In a similar way to Gosden it’s hard to find a robust angle to recommend although there are some clues and pointers worth drawing out.

Firstly, the earlier in the season the better as the graph illustrates, April and May are very strong in comparison to the rest of the year.

 

There is also interest when evaluating at the SP’s of all the stable's Maiden and Novice runs. The line graph below illustrates the cumulative profit or loss position by SP. In basic terms it shows that it is most profitable if Fahey’s first time out animals have been backed to 4/1 or shorter. Virtually every banding bigger than that is loss making.

 

Backing all 4/1 or shorter runners would result in a £26 profit to a £1 level stake (represented by the green arrow on the graph), whereas backing all 9/2 or greater would return a £97 loss (red arrow on the graph). We know two things about Fahey Maiden and Novice performance. Firstly, April and May performance is good. Secondly, horses at 4/1 or shorter are profitable. So, if we take April/May runners at 4/1 or shorter at SP I’d be optimistic we’ll find a reasonable angle. The table below gives us our answer:

There we have it. A small number of prospective bets, and at 4/1 or shorter it should be relatively low risk if unspectacular. It’s not really my sort of usual angle or bet (I tend to favour Hollywood odds long shots) but if you are inclined to have a bet in a maiden and novice race a short priced backed Fahey charge in the spring wouldn't be a bad place to start.

Back Richard Fahey First time out horses at 4/1 or shorter in Maiden/Novice races in April and May

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I hope in the above I've offered a few potential pointers for success at the start of the British flat turf season. Do feel free to play around with Query Tool on some of the other names in the big tables, and leave a comment if you find anything of note.

- Jon Shenton

Stat of the Day, 23rd August 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

2.25 York : Persian Moon @ 5/1 BOG 3rd at 10/3 (Tracked leader, raced keenly, led over 2f out, hung left under pressure inside final furlong, headed closing stages, no extra)

Thursday's pick goes in the...

3.35 York :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Coronet 6/1 BOG

In an 8-runner, Group 1 contest for Fillies and Mares (Darley Yorkshire Oaks) for 3yo+ over 1m4f on Good To Firm ground worth £198485 to the winner...

Why?

Yes, I know that there's a well fancied short priced favourite here, but I do like the chances of this older horse to upset the odds at a nice price. Like last year's winner Enable, who she was the runner-up to, she has come here from the King George at Ascot and her career stats include...

  • 3 wins from 4 under Frankie Dettori
  • 2 wins from 4 on good to firm
  • a win and that runner-up finish last year from 2 runs here at York
  • and she's got winning form over this trip

Like last year's winner, she is trained by John Gosden (who by default therefore had the 1-2 in this race last time with Frankie riding the winner) and John's horses have been running well for a while now, including...

  • over the last 30 days : 19 from 63 (30.2% SR)
  • over the past fortnight : 10/28 (35.7%)
  • and during the last week : 5/15 (33.3%)

More generally over the last seven (including this one) seasons, Mr Gosden's runners are 25 from 106 (23.6% SR) for 12.9pts (+12.1% ROI) on this track, including of relevance today...

  • at odds of 15/8 to 9/1 : 19/74 (25.7%) for 35pts (+47.3%)
  • at Class 1 : 18/72 (25%) for 8.02pts (+11.1%)
  • over trips of 10.5 to 12 furlongs : 19/58 (32.8%) for 35.6pts (+61.4%)
  • females are 12/38 (31.6%) for 6.05pts (+15.9%)
  • in female only races : 12/33 (36.4%) for 11.05pts (+33.5%)
  • on Good to Firm : 9/32 (28.1%) for 17.2pts (+53.7%)
  • those ridden by Frankie Dettori are 10/30 (33.3%) for 11.1pts (+37.1%)
  • 4 yr olds are 8/30 (26.7%) for 6.68pts (+22.3%)
  • over 1m4f : 6/22 (27.3%) for 14.1pts (+63.9%)

And prior to the start of this year's Festival, Frankie's record over the previous three Ebor meetings in Class 1 non-handicap races stood at 6 wins from 26 (23.1% SR) for 10.93pts profit at an ROI of 42.1%, including 3 wins from 11 (27.3%) for 2.01pts (+18.3%) on those trained by John Gosden...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Coronet 6/1 BOGa price offered by most firms (as at 5.50pm on Wednesday). To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.35 York

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 13th July 2018

Thursday's Pick was...

8.10 Epsom : Related @ 7/2 BOG 4th at 10/3 (In rear, outpaced over 3f out, ridden and kept on inside final furlong, took 4th near finish, never nearer)

Friday's pick goes in the...

3.00 Newmarket :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOG

In a 9-runner, Class 2, Flat Handicap for 3yo over 1m2f on Good To Firm ground worth £49800 to the winner...

Why?

Just the fifth career start for this potentially very smart 3 yr old Colt who has 3 wins and a runner-up finish so far from his four previous outings. He made his turf debut LTO 13 days ago, winning a similar Class 2 contest on Good to Firm ground over slightly further than today at York and I was waiting for him to reappear today : the fact that Frankie Dettori now jumps on board is an added bonus.

He's trained by John Gosden whose record on the July track is impressive with 54 winners from 270 (20% SR) for 130.5pts (+48.3% ROI) profit since the start of the 2012 season, from which...

  • 3 yr olds are 30/141 (21.3%) for 44.5pts (+31.6%)
  • on Good to Firm ground : 28/128 (21.9%) for 79.7pts (+62.3%)
  • in 3yo only races : 18/96 (18.8%) for 32.4pts (+33.7%)
  • at Class 2 : 8/32 (25%) for 24.6pts (+76.8%)
  • tilting at prizes worth £25k to £50k : 7/21 (33,3%) for 45pts (+214.3%)
  • and with horses rated (OR) in the narrow 99-104 banding : 7/12 (58.3%) for 13.3pts (+110.9%)

And more generally away from this particular track, Mr Gosden's Flat (turf) runners who were LTO winners have gone on to win again on 144 of 470 (30.6% SR) occasions since the start of the 2014 season, clocking up profits of 156.4pts (+33.3% ROI) for those backing all of them. Those not wishing to blanket bet them might prefer one or more of the following angles...

  • on Good to Firm ground : 51/162 (31.5%) for 61.6pts (+38%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 57/149 (38.3%) for 51.5pts (+34.6%)
  • competing for a prize worth £30k to £100k : 39/126 (31%) for 118.7pts (+94.2%)
  • over trips of 9 to 10.5 furlongs : 50/125 (40%) for 59.6pts (+47.7%)
  • racing after a break of less than 3 weeks : 33/120 (27.5%) for 60.5pts (+50.4%)
  • and in July : 18/49 936.7%) for 61.5pts (+38.6%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Wissahickon @ 11/4 BOGa price available from Betfair, Betfred, Paddy Power & Totesport at 5.10pm on Thursday with plenty of 5/2 BOG available elsewhere. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.00 Newmarket

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 14th June 2018

Wednesday's Pick was...

3.20 Chelmsford : Danzay @ 3/1 BOG 3rd at 5/2 (Held up mid-division, one pace when switched outside over 1f out, soon ridden, went 3rd and kept on inside final furlong, not pace to trouble front pair)

We continue with Thursday's...

4.10 Yarmouth :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOG non-runner heavily backed to as low as 7/4 in places, then withdrawn at 9.18am Reason: Self Cert (Not Eaten Up)

A 9-runner, Class 4 handicap for 3yo over 1m on Good To Firm worth £5531 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding is making just his 7th start today and just his third at this trip, having won on his first attempt before finishing as a runner-up LTO 12 days ago. He was headed late on in the piece on soft ground it is hoped/expected that quicker conditions here will help, as should the change of jockey, which is interesting.

The actual placing of this horse into this contest and the associated conditions drew me to the selection rather than his won past form and it all centres around the trainer John Gosden and his shy retiring jockey, a certain Mr Dettori. Let me explain more in numbers!

...over the last 30 days...

  • Mr Gosden is 25 from 83 (30.1% SR)
  • Mr Dettori is 9 from 34 (26.5%)
  • and together they are 6/15 (40%)

...the last fortnight...

  • trainer = 8/29 (27.6%)
  • jockey = 5/13 (38.5%)
  • together = 3/3 9100%)

and the last week?

  • trainer is 5/15 (33.3%)
  • jockey is 3/8 (37.5%)
  • together : 2/2 (100%)

Now, there are probably very few surprises there, but they do suggest that although both are in great form, they're better as a partnership.

Which now brings me to this horse in this race. John Gosden has three runners today, but only one here at Yarmouth, whilst Frankie makes the admittedly relatively short journey to the seaside for just this one ride : he has nothing else anywhere today. I might be overplaying that angle, but  who knows? After all it's only a Class 4 handicap worth less than £6k!

Yarmouth has been very good for Mr Gosden over the years and since the start of the 2015 campaign, his runners are 16 from 43 (37.2% SR) for 31.7pts profit (+73.7 ROI), from which...

  • on good to firm : 14/29 (48.3%) for 38.2pts (+111.5%)
  • males : 11/26 (42.3%) for 16.2pts (+62.2%)
  • 3 yr olds : 10/21 (47.6%) for 32.3pts (+153.8%)
  • Class 4 : 6/21 (28.6%) for 2.6pts (+12.4%)
  • at 7/2 and shorter : 12/19 (63.2%) for 14.9pts (+78.4%)
  • over the 1m C&D : 6/19 (31.6%) for 12pts (+63%)
  • in handicaps : 5/12 (41.7%) for 30.5pts (+254.5%)
  • ridden by Frankie Dettori : 7/10 (70%) for 7.93pts (+79.3%)
  • John's only runner at the track that day : 4/10 (40%) for 12pts (+120%)
  • Frankie's only ride at the track that day : 3/3 9100%) for 2.48pts (+82.7%)
  • and John's only runner at the track & ridden by Frankie = 1/1 (100%) for 0.48pts (+48%)

And this simple stripped back approach is enough to satisfy me today...

...and reinforces the placing of...a 1pt win bet on Glencadam Master @ 3/1 BOGwhich was widely available at 6.10pm on Wednesday evening, although Ladbrokes were slightly better at 10/3  BOG for those able to take advantage. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.10 Yarmouth

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 26th April 2018

Wednesday's Runner was...

6.55 Lingfield : My Target @ 6/1 BOG 5th at 9/2 (Mid-division on inside, headway chasing leaders over 1f out, weakened well inside final furlong)

Our next runner goes in Thursday's...

8.35 Chelmsford :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG

A 5-runner, Class 4,  1m A/W Handicap (3yo) on polytrack worth £7310 to the winner...

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has won twice and made the fame a further three times from his six starts so far with finishes of 211 on the All-Weather, including 2 wins from 2 over the 1m trip, the most recent being an LTO success 69 days ago.

His trainer, John Gosden, is bang in form, as typified by...

  • 18 winners from 50 (36% SR) in the last 30 days
  • 13 from 37 (35.1%) over the last fortnight
  • and 8 from 20 (40%) over the last week.

On top of this, Johnny's LTO winners are 147/488 (30.1% SR) for 137pts (+28.1% ROI) since 2014, from which...

  • April runners are 35/85 (41.2%) for 50pts (+58.8%)
  • and Class 4 runners are 27/77 (35.1%) for 18.5pts (+24.1%)

Whilst in the same 2014-18 time frame, his runners returning from a break of more than 60 days are 134/487 (27.5% SR) for 87.9pts (+18.1% ROI), including of relevance today...

  • LTO winners : 56/163 (34.4%) for 45.8pts (+28.1%)
  • in April : 54/153 (35.3%) for 33pts (+21.6%)
  • on Polytrack : 37/107 (34.6%) for 16.8pts (+15.7%)
  • over a 1m trip : 32/104 (30.8%) for 75.7pts (+72.8%)
  • at Class 4 : 32/104 (30.8%) for 45.8pts (+44%)
  • and here at Chelmsford : 12/22 (54.6%) for 20.5pts (+93.1%)

And finally for now (!), it's worth noting that this is Mr Gosden's only runner here today and in fact his only runner anywhere all day, and when sending just one handicapper out to a meeting since 2013, he has come home with the prize money on 52 of 199 (26.1% SR) occasions rewarding followers with 47.4pts [profit at an ROI of 23.8%, from which...

  • his only runner all day : 20/89 (22.5%) for 20.7pts (+23.3%)
  • at Chelmsford : 4/12 933.3%) for 8pts (+66.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Ode To Autumn @ 3/1 BOG which was available from 10Bet, BetVictor, Betway, Coral & SportPesa at 5.50pm on Wednesday, whilst Bet365 were a shade better at 10/3 BOG. In fact 11/4 BOG was still widely available at 8.15am on Thursday, so we should all manage to get on. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.35 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 21st October 2017

Friday's Result :

4.55 Redcar : Restive @ 9/2 BOG WON at 10/3 : Towards rear, headway 3f out, ridden to chase leaders over 1f out, stayed on to challenge when carried right inside final furlong, led towards finish, scoring by a length...

Saturday's selection goes in the...

1.25 Ascot :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG

Why?

A Group 2, 3yo+ contest over 2m on soft ground...

...and a 3 yr old Colt who is a former Group 1 winner and has won three times and been placed twice from 5 runs this year.

His suitability for today's task can be shown by the following achievements...

  • 3/3 going left handed, 2/2 after a short 25-45 day break
  • 2/2 at odds of 5/1 and bigger, 2/2 in fields of 12 or more
  • 1/1 at Group 2, 1/1 here at Ascot and 1/1 over 2 miles

He's trained by John Gosden, whose runners are 19/99 (19.2% SR) for 2.94pts (+2.96% ROI) over the last 30 days, of which Frankie Dettori has ridden 5 winners from 20 (25%) for profits of 17.03pts (+85.15%).

More long term, this trainer/jockey partnership is 44/170 (25.9% SR) for 21.7pts (+12.8% ROI) in Class 1 contests over the last four seasons, including...

  • those priced at 5/4 to 12/1 : 32/132 (24.2%) for 38.9pts (+29.5%)
  • 3 yr olds @ 27/91 (29.7%) for 28.3pts (+31.1%)
  • here at Ascot : 7/30 (23.3%) for 2.4pts (+8%)
  • and at Group 2 : 7/25 (28%) for 18.4pts (+73.6%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Stradivarius @ 8/1 BOG, which was widely available at 8.50pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.25 Ascot

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

The King Of Backend Maidens

From September to the end of the turf flat season, many of the top trainers in the land will be introducing the cream of their Classic aspirant juveniles to the racecourse for the very first time. Plenty of these unraced babies will be given what might be considered educational rides while others will be ready, willing and able to fire first time.

As punters it is our job to recognise this sub-season at the end of the turf campaign, where young horses in particular have been given more time to grow and mature. Of course, as we'll often be told, they'll be much better with another winter under their belts; and, in many cases, with another winter after that.

But such is the nature of the British racing and breeding programme, with its thirst for precocious racehorses and its ridiculously antiquated front-loaded Classic sequence (all bar the St Leger are run before the season is nine weeks old).

Thus, those which have been held back until the autumn - the so-called 'backend' - have either had training issues, are later developers, or are considered good enough to be given more time.

One trainer stands above all others in this regard, the peerlessly patient John Gosden. An exceptional trainer by any measure, that fact is seldom lost on the market, meaning we punters have to dig and scratch for a route in. Here may be one:

From the start of 2012 until now, Gosden ran 271 juveniles on the turf for the first time in maiden or novice company.

 

John Gosden's impressive 2yo first time stats

John Gosden's impressive 2yo first time stats

 

Pretty impressive for such a high profile trainer. But breaking them down into March to August and September to November groups makes for interesting reading:

 

John Gosden's backend first time juvenile starters are well worth noting
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John Gosden's backend first time juvenile starters are well worth noting

 

From less runners there are more winners and more placed horses in those closing weeks of the season. This stands to reason: after all, Gosden didn't run the likes of Golden Horn or Enable (notwithstanding the latter debuted on the all weather) until late October and late November respectively.

But look at the wagering difference between the two groups: backing the 141 juvenile first-timers up to the end of August would have lost 34 points (a quarter of all stakes) at SP, and most of 24 points at exchange prices. Waiting for the tail end of the season produced a profit of 58 points at starting price (45% ROI) and 80 points at Betfair SP.

It's a relatively small sample size from which to work, so care is required when drilling down any further. But it is worth looking at the backend runners by month and race distance.

 

Gosden juvenile first timers by month and race distance

 

Some interesting patterns start to show themselves now. Firstly, Gosden's September performance has been exceptional in this context across the board. Although less of the longer distance runners have won, they have more than paid their way.

As we move into October, there seems to be a clear shift in focus towards those expected to need a trip as a three-year-old, something doubtless accentuated by a shift in focus in the programme book: there are more juvenile maidens over longer trips at this time of year. Regardless, more than half of Gosden's 63 two-year-old debut runners in this month raced over at least a mile. The place strike rates for the shorter distances suggest those runners remain worthy of consideration.

November is a quieter time, and again we may be better served looking at the 46% place rate than the 8% win rate here. Or ignoring the tiny sample completely. The key point here is that this is Johnny G season. Backing his two-year-old debut starters on the turf has proved consistently profitable.

 

The key point here is that this is Johnny G season. Backing his two-year-old debut maiden and novice starters on the turf has proved consistently profitable.

 

Gosden has been consistently profitable to follow with backend juveniles

Gosden has been consistently profitable to follow with backend juveniles

 

As can be seen, we haven't missed anything this year yet: just two fourth places at Sandown. Without suggesting following the approach blindly, it is certainly an angle to be aware of, and to deploy as you see fit.

Good luck!

Matt

 

p.s. A good way to follow John Gosden, or any trainer, is to add them to your Geegeez Tracker. Register here, if you haven't already, then click the star icon next to the trainer's name on our racecards, or search for them from the Tracker itself.

Stat of the Day, 29th July 2017

Friday's Result :

3.55 Ascot : Appeared @ 11/4 BOG 5th at 2/1 Tracked leaders, took keen hold, steadied 10f out, headway from 5f out, driven 2f out, disputing 2nd when bumped over 1f out, soon short off room and squeezed out, beaten after, no extra final 150 yards.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Chester...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG

Why?

In a bid to return to some semblance of form (the last couple of weeks have been tough going), I'm stripping SotD back to basics today and keeping it relatively simple/straightforward.

I like the horse's chances here, and she's acquitted herself in her five starts to date, finishing 34212 so far. She was a runner-up when last seen at Newmarket four weeks ago, but now drops in class to run in this open age handicap amongst just her own sex where she'll receive a healthy/useful 8lbs weight for age allowance.

On top of the form/weight issues, there's the Johnny G factor ie trainer John Gosden and his decent record here on the Roodee which has seen him land 18 winners from 67 (26.9% SR) for 11.4pts (+17% ROI) here since 2010. 26.9% is a decent strike rate indeed, but in respect of today's contest, his 67 runners here have the following strike rates...

  • 66.6% were runners-up LTO (2 winners from 3)
  • 34% when sent off at 5/1 and shorter (17/50)
  • 33.3% racing over 7 to 11.5 furlongs (16/48)
  • 30.4% racing at class 4 (7/23)
  • 29.4% in fillies' races (5/17)
  • 29.2% as 3yr olds (14/48)
  • 27.3% from his female runners (6/22)
  • and 26.4% from those racing after a break of 11 to 45 days (14/53)

She's also quite likely to go off as favourite and jockey Kieren Fox is 17/44 (38.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+27.9% ROI) on handicap favourites since the start of 2013, with those racing over trips of 5 to 8 furlongs winning 13 of 25 (52%) for 19.08pts profit at an ROI of some 76.3%...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Shaaqaaf @ 9/2 BOG which was available from Betfair Sports & Paddy Power at 7.45pm on Friday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Chester...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd July 2017

Friday's Result :

5.35 Newmarket : Trulee Scrumptious @ 4/1 BOG 6th at 4/1 Led, clear 7f out, ridden and headed 2f out, weakened final furlong.

Saturday's pick goes in the...

1.50 Newbury...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG

Why?

Jockey Frankie Dettori has won 33 of his 152 (21.7% SR) rides here at Newbury since 2011 rewarding his legion of followers with level stakes profits of some 97.9pts at an ROI of 64.4%. These excellent figures include, of releavance today...

  • over 6-7 furlongs : 18/63 (28.6%) for 76.83pts (+121.9%)
  • in handicaps : 8/39 (20.5%) for 75.2pts (+192.9%)
  • at Class 2 : 6/19 (31.6%) for 32.2pts (+169.5%)

...making him a good bet here at Newbury and he actually had the choice of two John Gosden runners in this one and if he's happy to choose this one, who am I to disagree?

That, of course, makes the assumption that I'm happy to back a Gosden runner here, so let's see why that might be the case, shall we?

Well, the yard is 8/34 over the last fortnight and 3 from 13 in the past 7 days, so they're in good enough nick and a closer inspection of their record here on this track shows 50 winners from 248 (20.2% SR) for 55.4pts (+22.3% ROI) since 2011, which breeds further confidence in the selection.

And, of those 248 runners...

  • those priced at 2/1 to 12/1 are 40/185 (21.6%) for 73.1pts (+39.5%)
  • males are 28/145 (19.3%) for 32.7pts (+22.6%)
  • those racing over 6.5/7 furlongs are 17/62 (27.4%) for 20.9pts (+33.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 5/22 (22.7%) for 20pts (+90.9%)
  • and at Class 2 : 5/16 (31.25%) for 8.57pts (+53.6%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remarkable @ 3/1 BOG which was widely available in several places at 6.10pm on Friday with some 7/2 BOG on offer at Stan James for those (unlike me!) who are able to do so!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 1.50 Newbury...

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 2nd June 2017

Thursday's Result :

6.50 Newcastle : Fredricka @ 7/2 BOG 2nd at 15/8 Led, driven when challenged from well over 1f out, headed and no extra close home.

Friday's pick goes in the...

2.35 Epsom...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Remarkable @ 7/2 BOG

Why?

Over the last 30 days, trainer John Gosden's horses are 17 from 84 (20.2%), so the yard is clearly in good nick, as is today's jockey, the shy introverted Mr Frankie Dettori, whose own 30-day tally stands at 16 from 56 (28.6%) with a 4 from 7 record over the past week. And together over the last 30 days, the Gosden/Dettori partnership is 9 from 29 (31% SR).

Here at Epsom, Mr Gosden is 12/47 (25.5% SR) since the start of the 2012 season, whilst Frankie is 6/22 (27.3% SR) since 2014 and together in that time, the pair have teamed up for 5 winners from 9 (55.6% SR) and 5.06pts (+56.3% ROI) profits. Of those 9 runners, those in the 4/6 to 9/2 price range are 5/6 (83.3%) for 8.06pts (+134.4%), from which Class 2 runners are 3/4 (75%) for 4.18pts (+104.5%)

And...also since the start of the 2014 campaign, the Gosden runners at 8/8.5 furlongs are 132/568 (23.2% SR) for 135.8pts (+23.9% ROI), including...

  • males at 82/351 (23.4%) for 93pts (+26.5%)
  • handicappers at 31/144 (21.5%) for 46.9pts (+32.6%)
  • and on good ground : 26/114 (22.8%) for 96.7pts (+84.8%)

...all pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Remarkable7/2 BOG which was widely available at 8.00pm on Thursday, but those able to take the 4/1 BOG offered by minor players 10Bet, NetBet and/or 188Bet would be advised to do so. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 2.35 Epsom

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.