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Stat of the Day, 25th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)

Next up is Friday's...

8.30 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner... 

Why?

A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.

Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan's charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today's jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.

Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.

I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
  • those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
  • in May/June  :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
  • females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
  • ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
  • in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
  • and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)

AND...if you did want a small "bet and forget" micro, you could back...LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG  which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.45 Southwell : Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 : Pressed leader, led 8th, jumped right next and 4 out, ridden before 2 out, headed approaching last, no impression on winner, stayed on one pace...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

7.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Kevin Ryan's only runner of the day is a 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three outings, the latest coming in a 16-runner handicap over this course and distance 25 days ago at a higher grade than this race. So, although he's gone up in the weights again, he's running against poorer opposition in theory.

He's already won 5 times so far, including...

  • 3/8 going right handed
  • 3/6 over this 1m trip
  • 3/5 under today's jockey Kevin Stott
  • 3/5 in cheekpieces
  • 1/2 over course and distance.

Add to this the Ryan/Stott/Kempton AW hcp record of 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 12.06pts (+172.2% ROI) and the fact that since the start of 2010, Kevin Ryan's record with just one runner that day stands at 89/522 (17.1% SR) for 547.1pts (+104.8% ROI) and you've grounds for confidence.

Even more when, of the 522 Ryan solo runners...

  • those racing over trips shorter than 9f are 77/446 (17.3%) for 555.2pts (+124.5%)
  • males are 72/399 (18.1%) for 533.8pts (+133.8%)
  • those last seen 4 to 25 days earlier are 54/281 (19.2%) for 580.9pts (+206.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 25/107 (23.4%) for 37.1pts (+34.6%)
  • those ridden by Kevin Stott are 8/38 (21.1%) for 9.8pts (+25.8%)
  • and here at Kempton : 8/31 (25.8%) for 18.5pts (+59.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG, which was offered by at least eight firms at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst Coral were showing 9/2 BOG, but were having tech issues!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Ryan’s Filly has the dash – to land Weatherbys Super Sprint cash

The Weatherbys Super Sprint takes place at Newbury on Saturday, with 25 runners going to post.

Established in 1991, the five-furlong dash is open to juveniles, with weight allocated depending on the sale price of the horse. Clive Cox took the main event a week ago with speedster Harry Angel, and he has the top weight for this valuable renewal, with Snazzy Jazzy. The son of Red Jazz looked decent when successful on debut at Goodwood, though the third placed finisher has failed to frank the form since. The stable is certainly flying at present, but with just one career outing Snazzy J is hard to assess.

Despite large fields of inexperienced juveniles, the race has favoured fancied runners in recent times. Only three of the last 10 winners went off at odds greater than 10/1. Saturday’s favourite looks sure to be Maggies Angel trained by Richard Fahey. With two victories in the last four years, the Malton handler has pitched five arrows at the valuable target. Maggie has a win and a pair of runners-up finishes from four starts, and was last seen running a cracker in listed company. With just 8-6 on her back, and fillies taking three of the last five renewals, she looks to have a decent chance.

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Fahey also has Bengali Boys, a colt who is yet to be out the first two in his three career starts. He lost out to David O’Meara’s Chatburn last time, and the winner went on to run respectably behind Cardsharp. That form has a strong look to it, and this fella looks a live contender.

Corinthia Knight is another with several decent displays to his name. Trained in Lambourn by an in-form Archie Watson, the son of Society Rock ran respectably at Royal Ascot behind Sound Of Silence. He’d previously chased home Frozen Angel, and prior to that had landed a couple of races on the all-weather. He showed plenty of speed last time, and Newbury may prove more suitable than Ascot. I quite like the look of him and fancy he’ll go close.

Connery and Pursuing The Dream have splashes of form, and clashed at Bath earlier this month. The former came out best, though the latter appeared to struggle with the track. Pursuing The Dream was a dazzling sixth in the Queen Mary at Royal Ascot, and a repeat of that performance would undoubtedly see her go close.

Kevin Ryan has an interesting contender in Falabelle. She’s only raced the once, when nabbed late on at the stiff track of Carlisle. She’d been a little keen that day, and probably should have won. She should improve plenty for the experience, and if coping with the large field could run a huge race. A daughter of Choisir, she showed plenty of speed, and Newbury should suit. Ryan’s no mug with sprinters, and this filly could be useful.

Juvenile races are always tough to call. With little form in the book, and horses progressing both physically and mentally, this type of race is probably one to be left well alone. But where’s the fun in that?

Richard Fahey clearly targets this race with his youngsters, and he’s likely to go close again. But I’ll be having a small wager on the Archie Watson trained Corinthia Knight and Kevin Ryan’s Falabelle. The former looks to have strong claims on a solid Royal Ascot performance, whilst the latter showed plenty of potential on debut at Carlisle.

Best of luck to all those taking a punt on this one. You’ll certainly need it.

Ding Dong – It’s the Carlisle Bell

It’s rare for a race day at Carlisle to take centre-stage, but today the Cumbrian track holds its most prestigious meeting of the season.

The Carlisle Bell and Cumbrian Plate Day is a truly historic event. Carlisle Races most famous contest (Carlisle Bell) was first run, quite incredibly, in 1599. The race is named after the two miniature bells which were awarded to the winners of the race back in the time of Queen Elizabeth I. They are thought to be the oldest horse racing prizes in the World that continue to be contested for.

The Bells have travelled north from their temporary home at the wonderful National Heritage Centre in Newmarket, where they have been on display in the Under Starters Orders gallery. In 1599 they were presented to the winner of the Carlisle Bell Handicap, having been donated by Lady Dacre of Naworth Castle, just north of Carlisle in Cumberland. The family later had built, and resided in, the better-known Castle Howard.

The prestigious trophies are usually held at the Tullie House Museum and Art Gallery in Carlisle. Geraldine McKay, Carlisle Racecourse’s General Manager, said of the historic meeting: “It will be great to have the Bells back here for race day. It’s amazing a prize given out in the days of Queen Elizabeth I has survived 458 years. They have been around for 16 monarchs, 76 Prime Ministers, and the thing we are most proud of – for more than 400 runnings of this most treasured race here in Cumbria.

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“We are very excited Bell and Plate Day is here again – it’s our Derby Day – the day that stops Carlisle as thousands take the day off work and head here for a great days racing.”

It’s a racecourse that is well worth a visit. Just north of the glorious Lake District, the track is located at Blackwell village, a short drive from Carlisle. Facilities are good, and viewing is terrific. The atmosphere is friendly, and all aspects of the course are easily accessible.

The Carlisle Bell Handicap is run at just shy of a mile, and is ably supported on an excellent card by the Cumberland Plate and the valuable fillies Eternal Stakes, formerly run at Warwick, but now permanently a fixture at the Cumbrian track.

Though lacking the fame of others on the day, the fillies event for three-year-olds and run over seven furlongs, attracts classy types, with Mick Channon’s Opal Tiara storming to success in last year’s renewal. With a prize fund of £40,000, the race has again drawn talented fillies from far and wide. Ralph Beckett provides the race favourite in the Qatar Racing owned Bletchley. A comfortable winner at Leicester on seasonal debut, she looks a classy sort.

Roger Varian and William Haggas travel north for the event, and take on last year’s winner Mick Channon, along with a regular powerhouse of the northern circuit, Mark Johnston. Regulars at the course, Kevin Ryan, Richard Fahey and David O’Meara, also have runners on the card, supporting what is set to be a great day.

Racecourse general manager Geraldine McKay is clearly thrilled, and added: “For us to get eight-plus quality runners shows we are getting great support for the race. On the very same day, we have the history and tradition of the Carlisle Bell and Cumberland Plate and it all adds up to make for a very special day of racing.”

Gates open at noon, with the Red Rum Bar likely to be heaving by 1pm. Get there early, and sample a great day’s racing in the north. The first race is at 2pm, and let’s hope the great British weather stays fair.

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.00 Newmarket : Star Rock @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 Keen early, tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Carlisle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has previously won over 7.5f and was only beaten by a length last time out when headed deep inside the the final furlong of a one mile contest four weeks ago, so I'd expect the drop back to 7f to be to his advantage.

The data supporting my pick today is both quite simple/straightforward and listed below...

Basically, trainer Kevin Ryan's runners at Carlisle are both successful (25/147 = 17% SR) and profitable to back blindly (134pts = +91.2% ROI) since 2008 and in respect of today's particular contest, I found a whole host of relevant angles from the 147 runners and here are "just" ten!

  • On good to firm/ good ground : 16/101 (15.8%) for 57.9pts (+57.3%)
  • at class 5 : 19/98 (19.4%) for 122.5pts (+125%)
  • in handicaps : 15/86 (17.4%) for 120.4pts (+140%)
  • in May/June  : 9/60 (15%) for 55.2pts (+92.1%)
  • on good to form ground : 8/54 (14.8%) for 30.1pts (+55.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/42 (16.7%) for 43.2pts (+103%)
  • those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO : 9/31 (29%) for 9.5pts (+30.7%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.1%)
  • those dropping down in trip by 1f : 5/28 (17.9%) for 82.4pts (+294.4%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/28 (14.3%) for 31.9pts (+113.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and Betvictor at 6.20pm on Sunday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.00 Newmarket : Star Rock @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 Keen early, tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Carlisle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has previously won over 7.5f and was only beaten by a length last time out when headed deep inside the the final furlong of a one mile contest four weeks ago, so I'd expect the drop back to 7f to be to his advantage.

The data supporting my pick today is both quite simple/straightforward and listed below...

Basically, trainer Kevin Ryan's runners at Carlisle are both successful (25/147 = 17% SR) and profitable to back blindly (134pts = +91.2% ROI) since 2008 and in respect of today's particular contest, I found a whole host of relevant angles from the 147 runners and here are "just" ten!

  • On good to firm/ good ground : 16/101 (15.8%) for 57.9pts (+57.3%)
  • at class 5 : 19/98 (19.4%) for 122.5pts (+125%)
  • in handicaps : 15/86 (17.4%) for 120.4pts (+140%)
  • in May/June  : 9/60 (15%) for 55.2pts (+92.1%)
  • on good to form ground : 8/54 (14.8%) for 30.1pts (+55.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/42 (16.7%) for 43.2pts (+103%)
  • those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO : 9/31 (29%) for 9.5pts (+30.7%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.1%)
  • those dropping down in trip by 1f : 5/28 (17.9%) for 82.4pts (+294.4%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/28 (14.3%) for 31.9pts (+113.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and Betvictor at 6.20pm on Sunday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.45 Sandown : Twenty Eight Guns @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Led until 9th, lost 2nd 4 out, 4th and well held from next

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rag Tatter3/1 BOG

Why?

An in-form (as good as you'll get entering a maiden!) 3 yr old gelding who has finished 2322 in his last four runs and will be aiming to go one better and break his duck.

His trainer Kevin Ryan has already saddled up 7 winners from just 36 runners (19.4% SR) here at Chelmsford and the resultant 30.9pts of level stakes profit represents a return of 85.9% of stakes and of those 36 runners...

  • males are 6/33 (18.2%) for 29.95pts (+90.8%)
  • those with at least 15 days rest since their last run are 7/28 (25%) for 38.9pts +138.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/16 (+18.75%) for 17.8pts (+108%)
  • over this 6f trip : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22pts (+169.2%)
  • and those ridden by Kevin Stott are 4 from 8 (50%) for 22.28pts (+278.5%)

And not only is Kevin Stott in good recent form (61121 this month so far), if you backed him each time he'd ridden a Kevin Ryan horse priced at 11/8 to 12/1 since 2013, you'd have 46 winning bets from 192 (24% SR) and a very attractive 102.9pts profit (+53.6% ROI) with a 10 from 38 (26.3%) record in maidens that has generated 24.3pts (+64%) profit.

In addition to the above trainer/jockey specific stats, all 3 yr olds running here at Chelmsford at odds of 11/2 and shorter off the back of finishing 2nd or 3rd in each of the or last two outings have gone on to finally win on 35 of 108 (32.4% SR) occasions for 6.72pts (+6.23% ROI), provided they hadn't ran in the last 10 days.

Of those 108 door-knockers...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 33/90 (36.7%) for 16.18pts (+18%)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 23/72 (31.9%) for 16.23pts (+22.5%)
  • non-handicappers are 23/62 (37.1%) for 3.91pts (+6.31%)
  • and in maidens : 23/61 (37.7%) for 4.91pts (+8.05%)

And finally, I should point out that Rag Tatter is Mr Ryan's only runner of the day and since 2008 when sending out just one horse, he's had 101 winners from 569 (17.8% SR) for profits of 574.5pts at an ROI of 101%, with runners in maidens winning 25 of 134 (18.7%) for 82.7pts (+61.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rag Tatter 3/1 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, SkyBet and Totesport at 6.05pm on Sunday, but please DO take the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 if you possibly can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.45 Sandown : Twenty Eight Guns @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Led until 9th, lost 2nd 4 out, 4th and well held from next

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rag Tatter3/1 BOG

Why?

An in-form (as good as you'll get entering a maiden!) 3 yr old gelding who has finished 2322 in his last four runs and will be aiming to go one better and break his duck.

His trainer Kevin Ryan has already saddled up 7 winners from just 36 runners (19.4% SR) here at Chelmsford and the resultant 30.9pts of level stakes profit represents a return of 85.9% of stakes and of those 36 runners...

  • males are 6/33 (18.2%) for 29.95pts (+90.8%)
  • those with at least 15 days rest since their last run are 7/28 (25%) for 38.9pts +138.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/16 (+18.75%) for 17.8pts (+108%)
  • over this 6f trip : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22pts (+169.2%)
  • and those ridden by Kevin Stott are 4 from 8 (50%) for 22.28pts (+278.5%)

And not only is Kevin Stott in good recent form (61121 this month so far), if you backed him each time he'd ridden a Kevin Ryan horse priced at 11/8 to 12/1 since 2013, you'd have 46 winning bets from 192 (24% SR) and a very attractive 102.9pts profit (+53.6% ROI) with a 10 from 38 (26.3%) record in maidens that has generated 24.3pts (+64%) profit.

In addition to the above trainer/jockey specific stats, all 3 yr olds running here at Chelmsford at odds of 11/2 and shorter off the back of finishing 2nd or 3rd in each of the or last two outings have gone on to finally win on 35 of 108 (32.4% SR) occasions for 6.72pts (+6.23% ROI), provided they hadn't ran in the last 10 days.

Of those 108 door-knockers...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 33/90 (36.7%) for 16.18pts (+18%)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 23/72 (31.9%) for 16.23pts (+22.5%)
  • non-handicappers are 23/62 (37.1%) for 3.91pts (+6.31%)
  • and in maidens : 23/61 (37.7%) for 4.91pts (+8.05%)

And finally, I should point out that Rag Tatter is Mr Ryan's only runner of the day and since 2008 when sending out just one horse, he's had 101 winners from 569 (17.8% SR) for profits of 574.5pts at an ROI of 101%, with runners in maidens winning 25 of 134 (18.7%) for 82.7pts (+61.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rag Tatter 3/1 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, SkyBet and Totesport at 6.05pm on Sunday, but please DO take the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 if you possibly can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Fahey favourite to take Ayr Sprint

First run in 1804, the Ayr Gold Cup became a handicap in 1855 and was run at Ayr’s former racecourse Belleisle.

That track closed in 1907, and when the race arrived at its new venue it became a sprint, run over a trip of six furlongs.

It’s no great surprise that a Scottish race has been dominated by northern trainers. With 25 going to post tomorrow, the likes of Nicholls, Fahey, O’Meara and Ryan will be hoping for that particular trend to continue.

Richard Fahey was successful 12 months ago, when his classy sprinter Don’t Touch continued his rapid rise through the ranks. That was Fahey’s second victory in the past 10 years. In that time Kevin Ryan has won the race on three occasions, and David Nicholls on two. David O’Meara was successful in 2014.

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Though Don’t Touch landed the prize last year, three-year-olds tend to have a poor record in the race, with just a pair of victories in the past 20 years. Four, five and six-year-olds pretty much share the spoils in the Ayr Gold Cup, and with no three-year-olds even entered in tomorrow’s showpiece, that particular trend looks sure to continue.

Richard Fahey trains race favourite Growl, a four-year-old who has been wonderfully consistent in handicaps throughout the summer. As rain continues to fall all over the UK, Growl is proven on testing ground, having won well at Windsor in June. His last run in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood was eye-catching, when a fast-finishing fourth behind Dancing Star. A repeat of that performance should see him go very close.

Though the standard of contenders in the Ayr Gold Cup continues to improve, it remains difficult to win from the top end of the weights. Only two horses have won in the past 10 years off a handicap mark of more than 104. Both were trained by Kevin Ryan, with Advanced successful in 2007 on a mark of 109. Ryan has another fancied contender tomorrow with the 110 rated Brando.

Also a four-year-old, Brando has been running in Group company of late, and was by no means disgraced in the Nunthorpe last time out. He was second in the Wokingham Stakes at Ascot over this trip, though is now on a 9lbs higher handicap mark. He’s by Pivotal which suggests the ground will not be an issue. He’s won on soft in the past and is definitely a classy sort. Tom Eaves again takes the ride and knows him well. He should run a big race.

Absolutely So joins Brando at the top of the weights, and was just behind that rival last time at Ascot. He’s another classy sort who’s likely to be doing his best work late on. He’s better off at the weights with Brando, though whether he’ll act as well on the ground is questionable. He ought to be in the mix, though this is an incredibly competitive renewal.

David Nicholls has a number of contenders, and possibly his best chance will come with Orion’s Bow. Another by Pivotal, he was second in the Stewards’ Cup, though failed to build on that promise in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon last time. He won the Scottish Stewards’ Cup on this sort of ground back in July, though this is infinitely more difficult, and he’s gone up almost 10lbs since that run. He’s tough to fancy after that Ripon performance.

Watchable is another classy and consistent sort, though rarely gets his head in front. David O’Meara will be hoping that this son of Pivotal will cope with conditions, having spent most of his career running on a sounder surface. He has the form to run well in this, and his handicap mark looks a fair one. His odds of 25s look generous, as long as he acts on the ground. I fancy he’ll go close.

Finally, a mention for last year’s runner-up Poyle Vinnie. Trained in Newark by Michael Appleby, he was a 50/1 shot when chasing home Don’t Touch 12 months ago. He’s 4lbs lower in the handicap and has form on testing ground. He’s a 20/1 shot this time around, but that makes him a fair each-way proposition.

Growl looks the obvious choice, and I’ll be having a few quid on him. But I also fancy Brando and Poyle Vinnie as each-way shots, and will be throwing a little cash at both. It’s a cracking renewal, and I wish those taking a punt the best of luck.

Joe Doyle – Ryan’s Young Apprentice

At just 20, Joe Doyle continues to attract the plaudits, proving an apprentice worth following. With a valuable 3lb claim at his disposal he is part of a talented set up for North Yorkshire trainer Kevin Ryan.

From Holyross in County Tipperary, Doyle was passionate about riding from a young age, and as a teenager won a dream of a prize in an All-Ireland competition of junior jockeys. Two weeks work experience at Ballydoyle, working alongside Aidan O’Brien, would prove an inspiration, providing another push in the right direction for the talented youngster.

At 15, Doyle hit the headlines at the famous Dingle three-day Festival of Horse and Pony Racing, winning no less than five trophies including the major event, the Dingle Derby. The event on the glorious west coast of Ireland occurs in the second week of August each year and attracts a huge crowd, made up of locals and many from England, Scotland and Wales.

A field a mile from Dingle is converted into a racecourse, with the meeting similar to point to points held throughout the UK and Ireland. It’s the largest horse and pony race meeting in the country, with more than 20 races. Famous jockeys have found success at Dingle before going on to hugely memorable careers. Richard Hughes, Nina Carberry, Aidan Coleman, Noel Fehily, Pat Smullen, and Barry Geraghty, are just some that appear on an illustrious roll of honour.

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For Doyle the outstanding three days brought him to the attention of a number of local Irish trainers. And at 16 he rode his first winner as an apprentice at Leopardstown for Denis Hogan. Speaking at the time of the win, the Tipperary trainer said of his young rider: “It’s great for young Joe. He’s 16 and a local fellow. He signed on to Charlie Swan and he would ride work for us. He’s ridden a lot of pony race winners and it’s good to get the ball rolling for him.”

Doyle moved to the UK, finding success riding for John Quinn. After a quiet spell settling into his new surroundings during 2013, he soon established himself as an apprentice to follow, landing more than 30 winners in both 2014 and 2015.

He’s now based in Hambleton at Kevin Ryan’s yard having accrued 73 winners with Quinn over the two years. On his website Ryan comments: “With plenty of experience at a young age, he continues to improve and strengthen in his saddle. Having already impressed many trainers in the North he will have plenty of support during the 2016 season.”

That certainly appears the case thus far, and in the last two weeks he has won aboard horses for his boss, along with James Given and Paul Midgley. He currently stands on 14 wins for the current campaign, at an attractive strike rate of 15%.

Doyle’s a stylish and well-balanced young jockey, and is sure to get plenty of opportunities at one of the most powerful yards in the north. He’s likely to be brought along at the right pace, given the right type of rides to aid his progression and build his confidence, something that is crucial for all young jockeys, indeed all young sportsmen.

After a successful period toward the end of May, and a win on the yard’s The Wee Barra at Hamilton, Ryan’s website again carried a post emphasizing the high opinion the team have of the young rider. “Joe showed again why he is an apprentice to follow with a strong ride aboard The Wee Barra,” the piece said. “Sometimes jockeys can kick a little too early at Hamilton, forgetting that the final furlong is on the rise. Joe has a great knack for getting horses to travel and he did it again.”

Nottingham and Ayr are next on the agenda for Doyle, with four rides currently in the book. He’s just one of a sizeable number of talented apprentices fighting to make a name for themselves, in a business where competition is incredibly tough, and opportunities to shine are hard to come by.

He’s another that made his mark on the pony circuit in his youth, and seems destined for a bright future.

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2016

Friday's Result :

8.40 Musselburgh : Qaffaal @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (In touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to beat his 14/1 stable mate by a length, securing a 27.5/1 forecast for Mick Easterby in the process.)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Rated as high as 83 already and in consistently good form despite winning, his four consecutive runner-up finishes are clearly the best form on show here today. His latest run, at Beverley 18 days ago, saw him come within a neck of breaking his duck. An interesting development from that race is that the third placed horse, Haraz, was a length and a quarter further back, but improved to also get within a length of winning on Friday night, so if the form holds out...

That conjecture aside, what we do know is that his trainer, Kevin Ryan, has found Chester to be a happy hunting gorund over the last half dozen years, but more particularly since the start of the 2014 season. He may well have only sent 33 runners here in that time, but 8 winners (24.2% SR) and 26.4pts (+80% ROI) profit are numbers worth taking notice of, especially under today's race conditions, where those horses are...

  • 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 33.4pts (+128.5% ROI) as 2 to 5 yr olds
  • 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 34.2pts (+148.7% ROI) 16 to 60 days since their last run
  • 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 32.53pts (+180.7% ROI) carrying 8-09 to 9-04 inclusive
  • 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 40.2pts (+236.5% ROI) at odds of 3/1 to 9/1
  • 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+168.1% ROI) at Class 4
  • 4/10 (40% SR) for 20.77pts (+207.7% ROI) in non-handicaps
  • 3/10 (30% SR) for 13.35pts (+133.5% ROI) under jockey Shane Gray
  • 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.8% ROI) in maidens
  • 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 18.53pts (+264.7% ROI) from those with a top 2 finish LTO

Also, in additon to the above... 3-5 yr olds, racing over 7f to 8.5f on the Flat, 6 to 30 days after finishing 2nd or 3rd and were also placed in the first three in the two races prior to that run (ie 3 x top 3 in a row, but lost LTO) are 171/756 (22.6% SR) for 212.2pts (+28.1% ROI), broken down with today's race in mind, as follows...

  • 3yr olds are 126/552 (22.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+38.3% ROI)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 106/423 (25.1% SR) for 159.1pts (+37.6% ROI)
  • in non-handicap contests : 55/173 (31.8% SR) for 186.2pts (+107.6% ROI)
  • in maidens : 27/62 (43.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+19.8% ROI)
  • those beaten by a neck or less LTO are 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 51.5pts (+93.7% ROI)
  • and here at Chester : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+88.1% ROI)

AND, from the above... 3 yr olds in non-hcps, who were runners-up LTO are 28/74 (37.8% SR) for 141.9pts (+191.7% ROI), of which maiden races produced 18 winners from 35 (51.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+44.6% ROI) and those beaten by a neck or less are 11/25 (44% SR) for 42.43pts (+169.7% ROI), leading to...

...3yr olds in maidens, beaten into 2nd place by less than 1 length last time out are 13 from 17 (76.5% SR) for 17.5pts (+102.9% ROI)

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.50 pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chester

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Northern Trainers target prestigious Ayr Gold Cup

A thrilling finish at Ayr

A thrilling finish at Ayr

‘O Flower of Scotland when will we see’ a Scottish winner of the Ayr Gold Cup?

The William Hill Ayr Gold Cup run over six furlongs with £180,000 in prize-money is the most famous flat race in the country. You have to go back to 1975 for the last winner trained north of the border, when Ayr based Nigel Angus sent out Roman Warrior to win Scotland’s prestigious sprint. Ridden by Johnny Seagrave, he carried 10 stone to win narrowly in testing conditions.

Jim Goldie and Keith Dalgleish take up the challenge this time round and the signs are positive with both sending out a double on day one of the meeting.

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Goldie saddles his stable star Jack Dexter. Third in the renewal of 2013 then back in eighth last year, the six-year-old is known to enjoy testing conditions which are unlikely on Saturday. He’s run consistently well all year, but could only manage eighth in the Stewards’ Cup at Goodwood last time. All eight career victories have come with soft mentioned in the ground description.

Dalgleish is having his best year since starting out in 2011. With half a million in prize money and almost 60 winners for the season, hopes must be high that a big win is just around the corner. His Sound Advice has only been out of the frame once in his last seven starts. He’ll be stepping back in distance having won a valuable handicap at Chester last time. He’s shown plenty of ‘zip’ in his races and was brave at Chester when bursting between horses to win. The shorter trip is not expected to be an issue if good enough.

If the home team draw a blank, expect Yorkshire based trainers to be heavily involved in the outcome. David O’Meara took the race last year and is in the midst of another sensational campaign that has seen him win a host of group events. Highland Acclaim looks his best hope and ran with great promise last week at Doncaster, when a fast finishing fifth behind Steps in the Ladbrokes Portland.

Richard Fahey won the Ayr Gold Cup in 2006, and is always in the shake-up. He saddled Heaven’s Guest to fourth place finishes in the last two renewals, and the same horse ought to go close again. Progressive throughout the summer, he was fourth in a listed race at York last time and won a valuable handicap at Ascot in July.

Fahey also runs Rene Mathis and the undefeated Don’t Touch. The former has won two valuable handicaps during the summer and the latter swept to victory in the Great St Wilfrid Stakes at Ripon last month. This is clearly a tougher ask, but the three-year-old is on a steep upward curve. He has come in for heavy support over the last few days and looks sure to be sent off favourite.

Kevin Ryan is another Northern trainer with a great record in the race. Three wins from the last eight renewals, he also saddled Blaine to finish third last September. The horse has failed to spark so far this season, but is now off a 6lb lower mark than when chasing home Louis The Pious a year ago.

Lexington Abbey sneaks in at the bottom of the handicap, and ran well in the Silver Cup at last year’s meeting. Pat Smullen was on board on that occasion and has again been snapped-up for the ride tomorrow. He won the race for Kevin Ryan in 2012 when riding Captain Ramius.

At a huge price it would be unwise to discount Ryan’s Group 2 winner Glory Awaits. Highly tried since his second place finish in the 2,000 Guineas two years ago, he may have needed his last run at York when fading in the final furlong. He likes to blaze a trail and could be an interesting each-way proposition.

Expect a huge crowd to be treated to a thrilling renewal on Scotland’s most prestigious race day of the summer.

Kevin Ryan takes aim at local track

Ryan with Stable Star The Grey Gatsby

Ryan with Stable Star The Grey Gatsby

Kevin Ryan’s sprinters are always worth a second look when August’s York Ebor meeting arrives. He’s done particularly well with his juveniles in the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes in recent times with victories for Astaire, Blaine and back in 2005 Amadeus Wolf.

Hot Streak, Hototo and Bogart have also hit the target in the past few years. Just 12 months ago it was Blaine taking the opener on day one whilst Online Alexander closed the meeting in style for the North Yorkshire trainer.

Ryan brings another strong team to the Knavesmire, including his stable star, who he hopes can cause something of an upset in the opening day’s showpiece. The Grey Gatsby will have plenty on his plate in the Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes.

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The weather has put Gleneagles participation in doubt, but Golden Horn and Time Test still lie in wait. There’s just a chance that the ease in ground conditions could favour Ryan’s colt; perhaps denting slightly the finishing kicks of his market rivals.

The yard certainly appear confident of a huge run, with Ryan's son Adam reporting last week: “The Grey Gatsby is absolutely bang on where we want him and he's all set for York. Golden Horn is obviously a very, very good horse, but The Grey Gatsby loves York - he has twice won there and was a fine second in the race last year. I think we are going there with a great chance.”

Away from the ‘big one’ the Hambleton handler opens the meeting with two speedsters in the Symphony Group Stakes. Bogart was sixth in the race last year and won the event in 2013. Distant Past is the yard’s other representative. He’s won three of his last six and will have Jamie Spencer on board. It could prove a profitable day for Spencer, and he certainly needs a change of luck after events in America over the weekend.

The juveniles take centre-stage in race two with the Tattersalls Acomb Stakes. Ryan runs Mohab, a colt by Sir Percy who romped home last time at Catterick. He showed plenty of promise on debut when running green before finishing strongly in a maiden at York. There are plenty of smart looking types in the race, but Ryan’s powerful youngster is not without a chance.

On Thursday the team have two in the opener, followed by Ashadihan in the Group 2 Lowther Stakes. She’s a classy filly, and ran a cracker last time at Royal Ascot in the Albany. Beaten by Hannon’s leading juvenile filly Illuminate, the form looks strong and she has to arrive in this with a great chance. She takes on Lumiere and Besharah among others, in what looks a terrific renewal.

Glory Awaits and Salateen are entered in the Sky Bet City of York Stakes later in the week. The latter won well at the track in July, though this is far more competitive. Others runners worth noting include Weekend Offender, who is a nicely bred juvenile entered in a maiden on Friday; and Areen who is set to run in a very competitive Gimcrack Stakes on Saturday.

Kevin Ryan is one of a number of Yorkshire trainers that will be desperate to hit the target at this most prestigious meeting. Along with the likes of Messrs’ Fahey and O’Meara, it’s hard to imagine the powerful northern team leaving the Knavesmire empty handed.

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2015

I had a feeling that the favourite was underpriced/overbet at Thirsk yesterday, meaning that we'd get a decent price about Point of Woods and although our advised 5/1 didn't beat the 9/2 SP by far, it did show the market had seriously underestimated our runner.

And I can say that with confidence, as he defied being berthed in an "unwinnable stall position" to tack right across from the off to grab the rail and then just run for the line! It was a simple, but devastatingly effective tactic, that saw him make all to win by almost three lengths and from stall 2!

The runner-up had actually come from just inside in Stall 3, whilst the very short-priced favourite could only finish third from the plum 10 box, leading me to wonder about the validity of a "perceived draw bias", one I'm not sure really exists. Perhaps we'll add it to Matt's piece on betting myths!

Anyway, the upshot is this. A winner at 5/1 to start the week and complete a hat-trick of wins. It's our 5th winner in the last 7 picks, we're 5 from 8 for the month and with almost three weeks left to run, August is now guaranteed to be profitable! Time now to clock up as many winners as we can, hopefully starting in Tuesday's...

2.15 Carlisle :

Where Kevin Ryan's Company Asset is a 9/2 BOG shot with both Bet365 and BetVictor for this 2yo maiden contest.

We'll start with the trainer's record here at this track...

Snce the start of the 2008 campaign, here at Carlisle Kevin Ryan's runners are 21 from 116 (18.1% SR) for 134.7pts (+116.1% ROI) profit, analysed as follows with today's race in mind in descending number of qualifiers...

  • those who last ran 1 to 45 days ago : 19/96 (19.8% SR) for 130.1pts (+135.5% ROI)
  • those, 2nd to 7th place LTO : 20.76 (26.3% SR) for 172.6pts (+227.1% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners  :16/75 (21.3% SR) for 122.3pts (+163.1% ROI)
  • beaten by 2 to 15 lengths LTO : 15/66 (22.7% SR) for 144.5pts (+218.9% ROI)
  • 2 yr olds are 9/50 (18% SR) for 43.8pts (+87.6% ROI)
  • maiden races : 8/44 (18.2% SR) for 23.5pts (+53.3% ROI)

Kevin Ryan's Class 4 to 6 runners at Carlisle running within 90 days of their last outing which was a 2nd to 7th place finish, beaten by less than 15 lengths are 19 from 65 (29.2% SR) for 162.4pts (+249.9% ROI) profit.

Company Asset is Kevin's only runner at this track today...

And since 2010, whenever Kevin had only had one runner at a track, that horse has won on 193 of 1131 occasions (17.1% SR) generating 729pts profit at an ROI of 64.5%. His 2yr olds fitting this bill are 57/330 (17.3% SR) for 633.5pts (+192% ROI) and in maiden races, his runners are 45/281 (16% SR) for 95.3pts (+33.9% ROI).

Kevin's 2yo male maidens are 22/127 (17.3% SR) for 67.4pts (+53.1% ROI), whilst his Carlisle sole representatives are 5/20 (25% SR) for 90.7pts (+453.5% ROI).

In fact, Company Asset is Kevin's only runner all day!

And on days when he's only had the one winner, he has won more than his fair share of races, visiting the winners enclosure on 86 of 456 occasions (18.9% SR) for profits of 595.8pts at an ROI of 130.7% since 2009. These runners can, of course, be categorised in respect of today's contest and that would look a little like this...

  • Males are 70/352 (19.9% SR) for 539.2pts (+153.2% ROI)
  • 2yr olds are 20/111 (18% SR) for 548.3pts (+494% ROI)
  • maidens are 21/110 (19.1% SR) for 81.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • here at Carlisle : 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 56pts (+800% ROI!)

His 2yo male maidens are 9/45 (20% SR) for 60pts (+133.3% ROI) since 2009 and in the last four seasons that becomes 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 76.8pts (+284.4% ROI).

Graham Lee takes the ride...

And not only did he win this race last year, he also has a good record riding for Kevin Ryan with 23 win s from 148 (15.5% SR) generating profits of 63.5pts at an ROI of 42.%. On the Ryan males, he is 21/120 (17.5% SR) for 85.5pts (+71.2% ROI), on 2yr olds he is 11/61 (18% SR) for 75.7pts (+124.2$% ROI) with a record reading 9/52 (17.3% SR) for 73pts (+140.5% ROI) in maidens.

Graham Lee has won 7 times from 35 rides (20% SR) for 84pts (+240% ROI) profit on Kevin Ryan's 2yo male maidens and has a 6/16 (37.5% SR) record on thos priced at 5/1 and shorter.

Obviously, as a maiden, there's no winning form to discuss, but Company Asset was only 3 lengths behind Squash last time out and she has gone on to finish 4th of 20 in a Class 2, £25k, 20-runner handicap, beaten by less than two lengths before going down by a similar margin in a Group 3 event last Saturday.

I'm not suggesting Company Asset is a Group horse, but if he can run to the same level as last time out, we should at the very least get a good run for our money placed at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 or BetVictor, currently (1.10am!) the two best prices on offer.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

...click here for the betting on the 2.15 Carlisle

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Stat of the Day, 10th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2015

I think I touched a raw nerve with some of you not quite used to my style of writing yesterday, when I suggested that you needed to be ready to sustain some losses.

Whilst myself and Matt are (quite rightly!) fiercely proud of our 28 to 29% strike rate ( ie 2-in-7), I was merely trying to manage your expectations, because to be quite frank (and I've said little/nothing about this until now), I was quite disappointed with some of the comments left / emails sent, just because we backed a couple of losers.

The recent purple patch of winners cannot and will not be sustained, it stands to reason that we're going to have losing runs, the most recent of which ended yesterday with a fine win for Jan Van Hoof in a tight finish. Delivered by David Nolan, he hit the front at just the right time in a race where the first four home were only separated by a neck or so.

The only negative was the 20p Rule 4 deduction we incurred, but even after that, our 2.66/1 returns were still almost 20% higher than taking the 9/4 SP. We now roll on to Friday and a trip to the Roodee for the...

9.15 Chester :

A Class 4, 1m 2.5f handicap for 3 yr olds, where I'm siding with Kevin Ryan's gelding Cyril, who can be backed at 9/2 BOG.

Since the start of the 2010 season, Kevin's record here on the Roodee is reasonable if not spectacular with 16 winners from 106 (15.1% SR) runners and 10.6pts (+10% ROI) of level stakes profits. And although we like a bit more meat on the bones than 10%, it's a good starting point and I've got seven (yes, 7!) different ways that you could back the Ryan runners and increase the ROI.

So, in decreasing sample size we have...

  1. Handicappers : 12/81 (14.8% SR) for 10.2pts (+12.6% ROI)
  2. Aged 2 to 4 : 14/75 (18.7% SR) for 26.8pts (+35.7% ROI)
  3. 6f to 11f : 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 14pts (+20.9% ROI)
  4. Classes 3 & 4 : 11/60 (18.3% SR) for 28.8pts (+48% ROI)
  5. July to September : 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 39pts (+67.3% ROI)
  6. Carrying 9-0 to 9-7 : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 32.4pts (+58.8% ROI)
  7. 3/1 to 9/1 : 13/52 (25% SR) for 40.1pts (+77.1% ROI)

All of which are viable angles to aim at. Obviously you could make combinations of them in a host of ways, but with a slight relaxation of some of the categories' parameters, you could end up with the following set of criteria...

Kevin Ryan's Chester Class 3 & 4 handicappers aged 2 to 5 carrying 8-11 to 9-7 in the months of July to September over trips of 6f to 11f are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 42.5pts (+326.9% ROI) profit, with those priced at 8/1 or shorter winning 5 of 7 (71.4$ SR) for 28.5pts (+406.8% ROI).

Kevin has five runners out on Friday, but with four of them going to York, this leaves Cyril as the sole representative on this track today, but Mr Ryan seems to do well with those solo travellers and since 2010 at tracks where he's had just one runner, he has managed to clock up 190 winners from 1101 (17.3% SR) runners, generating 735.6pts (+66.8% ROI) profit in the process.

On the Flat, those figures are 97/641 (15.1% SR) for 5832pts (+90.8% ROI), of which 2 to 4 yr olds are 87/545 (16% SR) for 605.9pts (+111.2% ROI). These younger horses are 85/528 (16.1% SR) for 612.3pts (+116% ROI).

Of those 528 runners, there's a 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 153.8pts (+252.2% ROI) record here in God's Own Country aka the North-West of England with Chester supplying 4 winners form 15 (26.7% SR) runners for profits of 20.1pts (+134.2% ROI).

Cyril was a winner last time out, scoring by a length and a quarter at Pontefract three weeks ago, doing all his work in the closing stages and staying on as though he had more to give and also wanted further. He gets a tougher challenge here and an extra half furlong, which should suit him, making him a serious contender at 9/2 BOG with both Boylesports & Seanie Mac, whilst everyone else seems to be offering 4/1 BOG (which is still worth having), as you'll see by...

...clicking here for the betting on the 9.15 Chester

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