Posts

Stat of the Day, 25th May 2018

Thursday's Runner was...

6.10 Chelmsford : Foie Gras @ 11/4 7th at 6/1 (Always towards rear)

Next up is Friday's...

8.30 Pontefract :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG 

A 10-runner, Class 5, Fillies Handicap (3yo+) over 1m2f on Good To Firm gorund worth £3881 to the winner... 

Why?

A winner of two of her last three outings, this 4 yr old filly defied a 255-day absence to win here over course and distance 23 days ago on her only previous visit to this track, taking her career record at 9/10 furlongs to 2 wins from 3.

Her yard has been in decent nick of late with Kevin Ryan's charges winning 13 of 79 (16.5% SR) over the last 30 days, generating profit of 23.3pts at an ROI of 29.5%, whilst today's jockey Keith Stott has ridden 5 winners from 25 (20%) himself in the last two weeks.

Team Ryan are already 3 from 8 (37.5% SR) for 10.32pts (+129% ROI) here at Pontefract this season, whilst more generally their LTO winners are 93/524 (17.8%) for 44.8pts (+8.6%) backed blindly since the start of 2012.

I never really recommend blind backing such angles as the losing runs can be demoralising, but I prefer to focus on relevant angles, such as...

  • those who last ran 4-60 days earlier : 87/425 (20%) for 100.7pts (+23.1%)
  • on the Flat : 66/399 (16.5%) for 56.5pts (+14.2%)
  • those who won by 2L or less LTO : 71/383 (18.5%) for 73.9pts (+19.3%)
  • in May/June  :18/123 (14.6%) for 49.7pts (+40.4%)
  • females : 22/121 (18.2%) for 16.8pts (+13.9%)
  • ridden by Keith Stott : 22/70 (31.4%) for 60pts (+85.8%)
  • in 2018 : 9/34 (26.5%) for 24.8pts (+72.9%)
  • and here at Ponty : 3/9 (33.3%) for 10.76pts (+119.5%)

AND...if you did want a small "bet and forget" micro, you could back...LTO winners running on the Flat, 4-60 days after a win by 2 lengths or less for 49 winners from 238 (20.6% SR) and 130.6pts profit (+54.9% ROI) : a strategy that is already standing at 11/40 (27.5%) for 29.3pts (+73.2%) since the start of the 2017 season...

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Savannah Moon @ 4/1 BOG  which was widely available at 7.05pm on Thursday. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 8.30 Pontefract

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 4th October 2017

Tuesday's Result :

3.45 Southwell : Marienstar @ 11/2 BOG 2nd at 5/2 : Pressed leader, led 8th, jumped right next and 4 out, ridden before 2 out, headed approaching last, no impression on winner, stayed on one pace...

Wednesday's selection goes in the...

7.40 Kempton :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG

Why?

Kevin Ryan's only runner of the day is a 4 yr old gelding who has won each of his last three outings, the latest coming in a 16-runner handicap over this course and distance 25 days ago at a higher grade than this race. So, although he's gone up in the weights again, he's running against poorer opposition in theory.

He's already won 5 times so far, including...

  • 3/8 going right handed
  • 3/6 over this 1m trip
  • 3/5 under today's jockey Kevin Stott
  • 3/5 in cheekpieces
  • 1/2 over course and distance.

Add to this the Ryan/Stott/Kempton AW hcp record of 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 12.06pts (+172.2% ROI) and the fact that since the start of 2010, Kevin Ryan's record with just one runner that day stands at 89/522 (17.1% SR) for 547.1pts (+104.8% ROI) and you've grounds for confidence.

Even more when, of the 522 Ryan solo runners...

  • those racing over trips shorter than 9f are 77/446 (17.3%) for 555.2pts (+124.5%)
  • males are 72/399 (18.1%) for 533.8pts (+133.8%)
  • those last seen 4 to 25 days earlier are 54/281 (19.2%) for 580.9pts (+206.7%)
  • 4 yr olds are 25/107 (23.4%) for 37.1pts (+34.6%)
  • those ridden by Kevin Stott are 8/38 (21.1%) for 9.8pts (+25.8%)
  • and here at Kempton : 8/31 (25.8%) for 18.5pts (+59.8%)

...giving us... a 1pt win bet on Brilliant Vanguard @ 4/1 BOG, which was offered by at least eight firms at 5.40pm on Tuesday, whilst Coral were showing 9/2 BOG, but were having tech issues!. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.40 Kempton

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.00 Newmarket : Star Rock @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 Keen early, tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Carlisle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Who?

Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has previously won over 7.5f and was only beaten by a length last time out when headed deep inside the the final furlong of a one mile contest four weeks ago, so I'd expect the drop back to 7f to be to his advantage.

The data supporting my pick today is both quite simple/straightforward and listed below...

Basically, trainer Kevin Ryan's runners at Carlisle are both successful (25/147 = 17% SR) and profitable to back blindly (134pts = +91.2% ROI) since 2008 and in respect of today's particular contest, I found a whole host of relevant angles from the 147 runners and here are "just" ten!

  • On good to firm/ good ground : 16/101 (15.8%) for 57.9pts (+57.3%)
  • at class 5 : 19/98 (19.4%) for 122.5pts (+125%)
  • in handicaps : 15/86 (17.4%) for 120.4pts (+140%)
  • in May/June  : 9/60 (15%) for 55.2pts (+92.1%)
  • on good to form ground : 8/54 (14.8%) for 30.1pts (+55.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/42 (16.7%) for 43.2pts (+103%)
  • those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO : 9/31 (29%) for 9.5pts (+30.7%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.1%)
  • those dropping down in trip by 1f : 5/28 (17.9%) for 82.4pts (+294.4%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/28 (14.3%) for 31.9pts (+113.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and Betvictor at 6.20pm on Sunday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 22nd May 2017

Saturday's Result :

5.00 Newmarket : Star Rock @ 11/4 BOG WON at 15/8 Keen early, tracked leader, led 3f out, ridden over 1f out, ran on gamely.

Monday's pick goes in the...

3.50 Carlisle...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG

Why?

This 3 yr old gelding has previously won over 7.5f and was only beaten by a length last time out when headed deep inside the the final furlong of a one mile contest four weeks ago, so I'd expect the drop back to 7f to be to his advantage.

The data supporting my pick today is both quite simple/straightforward and listed below...

Basically, trainer Kevin Ryan's runners at Carlisle are both successful (25/147 = 17% SR) and profitable to back blindly (134pts = +91.2% ROI) since 2008 and in respect of today's particular contest, I found a whole host of relevant angles from the 147 runners and here are "just" ten!

  • On good to firm/ good ground : 16/101 (15.8%) for 57.9pts (+57.3%)
  • at class 5 : 19/98 (19.4%) for 122.5pts (+125%)
  • in handicaps : 15/86 (17.4%) for 120.4pts (+140%)
  • in May/June  : 9/60 (15%) for 55.2pts (+92.1%)
  • on good to form ground : 8/54 (14.8%) for 30.1pts (+55.8%)
  • 3 yr olds are 7/42 (16.7%) for 43.2pts (+103%)
  • those finishing 2nd or 3rd LTO : 9/31 (29%) for 9.5pts (+30.7%)
  • those beaten by less than 3 lengths LTO : 8/29 (27.6%) for 21.5pts (+74.1%)
  • those dropping down in trip by 1f : 5/28 (17.9%) for 82.4pts (+294.4%)
  • and in 3yo only races : 4/28 (14.3%) for 31.9pts (+113.8%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Heir of Excitement10/3 BOG which was available with both Bet365 and Betvictor at 6.20pm on Sunday with plenty of acceptable 3/1 BOG elsewhere, but to see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 3.50 Carlisle

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.45 Sandown : Twenty Eight Guns @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Led until 9th, lost 2nd 4 out, 4th and well held from next

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Your first 30 days for just £1

Rag Tatter3/1 BOG

Why?

An in-form (as good as you'll get entering a maiden!) 3 yr old gelding who has finished 2322 in his last four runs and will be aiming to go one better and break his duck.

His trainer Kevin Ryan has already saddled up 7 winners from just 36 runners (19.4% SR) here at Chelmsford and the resultant 30.9pts of level stakes profit represents a return of 85.9% of stakes and of those 36 runners...

  • males are 6/33 (18.2%) for 29.95pts (+90.8%)
  • those with at least 15 days rest since their last run are 7/28 (25%) for 38.9pts +138.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/16 (+18.75%) for 17.8pts (+108%)
  • over this 6f trip : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22pts (+169.2%)
  • and those ridden by Kevin Stott are 4 from 8 (50%) for 22.28pts (+278.5%)

And not only is Kevin Stott in good recent form (61121 this month so far), if you backed him each time he'd ridden a Kevin Ryan horse priced at 11/8 to 12/1 since 2013, you'd have 46 winning bets from 192 (24% SR) and a very attractive 102.9pts profit (+53.6% ROI) with a 10 from 38 (26.3%) record in maidens that has generated 24.3pts (+64%) profit.

In addition to the above trainer/jockey specific stats, all 3 yr olds running here at Chelmsford at odds of 11/2 and shorter off the back of finishing 2nd or 3rd in each of the or last two outings have gone on to finally win on 35 of 108 (32.4% SR) occasions for 6.72pts (+6.23% ROI), provided they hadn't ran in the last 10 days.

Of those 108 door-knockers...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 33/90 (36.7%) for 16.18pts (+18%)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 23/72 (31.9%) for 16.23pts (+22.5%)
  • non-handicappers are 23/62 (37.1%) for 3.91pts (+6.31%)
  • and in maidens : 23/61 (37.7%) for 4.91pts (+8.05%)

And finally, I should point out that Rag Tatter is Mr Ryan's only runner of the day and since 2008 when sending out just one horse, he's had 101 winners from 569 (17.8% SR) for profits of 574.5pts at an ROI of 101%, with runners in maidens winning 25 of 134 (18.7%) for 82.7pts (+61.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rag Tatter 3/1 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, SkyBet and Totesport at 6.05pm on Sunday, but please DO take the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 if you possibly can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 13th March 2017

Saturday's Result :

4.45 Sandown : Twenty Eight Guns @ 3/1 BOG 4th at 9/2 Led until 9th, lost 2nd 4 out, 4th and well held from next

Monday's pick goes in the...

7.50 Chelmsford...

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Rag Tatter3/1 BOG

Why?

An in-form (as good as you'll get entering a maiden!) 3 yr old gelding who has finished 2322 in his last four runs and will be aiming to go one better and break his duck.

His trainer Kevin Ryan has already saddled up 7 winners from just 36 runners (19.4% SR) here at Chelmsford and the resultant 30.9pts of level stakes profit represents a return of 85.9% of stakes and of those 36 runners...

  • males are 6/33 (18.2%) for 29.95pts (+90.8%)
  • those with at least 15 days rest since their last run are 7/28 (25%) for 38.9pts +138.9%)
  • 3 yr olds are 3/16 (+18.75%) for 17.8pts (+108%)
  • over this 6f trip : 3/13 (23.1%) for 22pts (+169.2%)
  • and those ridden by Kevin Stott are 4 from 8 (50%) for 22.28pts (+278.5%)

And not only is Kevin Stott in good recent form (61121 this month so far), if you backed him each time he'd ridden a Kevin Ryan horse priced at 11/8 to 12/1 since 2013, you'd have 46 winning bets from 192 (24% SR) and a very attractive 102.9pts profit (+53.6% ROI) with a 10 from 38 (26.3%) record in maidens that has generated 24.3pts (+64%) profit.

In addition to the above trainer/jockey specific stats, all 3 yr olds running here at Chelmsford at odds of 11/2 and shorter off the back of finishing 2nd or 3rd in each of the or last two outings have gone on to finally win on 35 of 108 (32.4% SR) occasions for 6.72pts (+6.23% ROI), provided they hadn't ran in the last 10 days.

Of those 108 door-knockers...

  • Class 4/5 runners are 33/90 (36.7%) for 16.18pts (+18%)
  • those last seen 11 to 30 days ago are 23/72 (31.9%) for 16.23pts (+22.5%)
  • non-handicappers are 23/62 (37.1%) for 3.91pts (+6.31%)
  • and in maidens : 23/61 (37.7%) for 4.91pts (+8.05%)

And finally, I should point out that Rag Tatter is Mr Ryan's only runner of the day and since 2008 when sending out just one horse, he's had 101 winners from 569 (17.8% SR) for profits of 574.5pts at an ROI of 101%, with runners in maidens winning 25 of 134 (18.7%) for 82.7pts (+61.7%)

...giving us...a 1pt win bet on Rag Tatter 3/1 BOG which was available with Betbright, Betfred, SkyBet and Totesport at 6.05pm on Sunday, but please DO take the 7/2 BOG offered by Bet365 if you possibly can. To see what your preferred bookie is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 7.50 Chelmsford

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted are to Betfair SP, as (i) I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you and (ii) although inferior to the BOG odds we secure, BFSP is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns quoted.

Stat of the Day, 28th May 2016

Friday's Result :

8.40 Musselburgh : Qaffaal @ 11/4 BOG WON at 2/1 (In touch, headway over 2f out, ridden to lead inside final furlong, ran on to beat his 14/1 stable mate by a length, securing a 27.5/1 forecast for Mick Easterby in the process.)

Saturday's pick goes in the...

4.00 Chester :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection in the evening before the following day's race and I then add a detailed write-up later on that night/next morning.

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG

Why?

Rated as high as 83 already and in consistently good form despite winning, his four consecutive runner-up finishes are clearly the best form on show here today. His latest run, at Beverley 18 days ago, saw him come within a neck of breaking his duck. An interesting development from that race is that the third placed horse, Haraz, was a length and a quarter further back, but improved to also get within a length of winning on Friday night, so if the form holds out...

That conjecture aside, what we do know is that his trainer, Kevin Ryan, has found Chester to be a happy hunting gorund over the last half dozen years, but more particularly since the start of the 2014 season. He may well have only sent 33 runners here in that time, but 8 winners (24.2% SR) and 26.4pts (+80% ROI) profit are numbers worth taking notice of, especially under today's race conditions, where those horses are...

  • 8/26 (30.8% SR) for 33.4pts (+128.5% ROI) as 2 to 5 yr olds
  • 7/23 (30.4% SR) for 34.2pts (+148.7% ROI) 16 to 60 days since their last run
  • 6/18 (33.3% SR) for 32.53pts (+180.7% ROI) carrying 8-09 to 9-04 inclusive
  • 7/17 (41.2% SR) for 40.2pts (+236.5% ROI) at odds of 3/1 to 9/1
  • 5/15 (33.3% SR) for 25.2pts (+168.1% ROI) at Class 4
  • 4/10 (40% SR) for 20.77pts (+207.7% ROI) in non-handicaps
  • 3/10 (30% SR) for 13.35pts (+133.5% ROI) under jockey Shane Gray
  • 3/8 (37.5% SR) for 17pts (+212.8% ROI) in maidens
  • 4/7 (57.1% SR) for 18.53pts (+264.7% ROI) from those with a top 2 finish LTO

Also, in additon to the above... 3-5 yr olds, racing over 7f to 8.5f on the Flat, 6 to 30 days after finishing 2nd or 3rd and were also placed in the first three in the two races prior to that run (ie 3 x top 3 in a row, but lost LTO) are 171/756 (22.6% SR) for 212.2pts (+28.1% ROI), broken down with today's race in mind, as follows...

  • 3yr olds are 126/552 (22.8% SR) for 21.6pts (+38.3% ROI)
  • those finishing 2nd LTO are 106/423 (25.1% SR) for 159.1pts (+37.6% ROI)
  • in non-handicap contests : 55/173 (31.8% SR) for 186.2pts (+107.6% ROI)
  • in maidens : 27/62 (43.6% SR) for 12.3pts (+19.8% ROI)
  • those beaten by a neck or less LTO are 17/55 (30.9% SR) for 51.5pts (+93.7% ROI)
  • and here at Chester : 5/16 (31.25% SR) for 14.1pts (+88.1% ROI)

AND, from the above... 3 yr olds in non-hcps, who were runners-up LTO are 28/74 (37.8% SR) for 141.9pts (+191.7% ROI), of which maiden races produced 18 winners from 35 (51.4% SR) for 15.6pts (+44.6% ROI) and those beaten by a neck or less are 11/25 (44% SR) for 42.43pts (+169.7% ROI), leading to...

...3yr olds in maidens, beaten into 2nd place by less than 1 length last time out are 13 from 17 (76.5% SR) for 17.5pts (+102.9% ROI)

...so the call today is...a 1pt win bet on Heir To A Throne at 5/1 BOG which was available in several places at 6.50 pm, but to see what your preferred firm is offering, simply...

...click here for the betting on the 4.00 Chester

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard...

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th August 2015

I had a feeling that the favourite was underpriced/overbet at Thirsk yesterday, meaning that we'd get a decent price about Point of Woods and although our advised 5/1 didn't beat the 9/2 SP by far, it did show the market had seriously underestimated our runner.

And I can say that with confidence, as he defied being berthed in an "unwinnable stall position" to tack right across from the off to grab the rail and then just run for the line! It was a simple, but devastatingly effective tactic, that saw him make all to win by almost three lengths and from stall 2!

The runner-up had actually come from just inside in Stall 3, whilst the very short-priced favourite could only finish third from the plum 10 box, leading me to wonder about the validity of a "perceived draw bias", one I'm not sure really exists. Perhaps we'll add it to Matt's piece on betting myths!

Anyway, the upshot is this. A winner at 5/1 to start the week and complete a hat-trick of wins. It's our 5th winner in the last 7 picks, we're 5 from 8 for the month and with almost three weeks left to run, August is now guaranteed to be profitable! Time now to clock up as many winners as we can, hopefully starting in Tuesday's...

2.15 Carlisle :

Where Kevin Ryan's Company Asset is a 9/2 BOG shot with both Bet365 and BetVictor for this 2yo maiden contest.

We'll start with the trainer's record here at this track...

Snce the start of the 2008 campaign, here at Carlisle Kevin Ryan's runners are 21 from 116 (18.1% SR) for 134.7pts (+116.1% ROI) profit, analysed as follows with today's race in mind in descending number of qualifiers...

  • those who last ran 1 to 45 days ago : 19/96 (19.8% SR) for 130.1pts (+135.5% ROI)
  • those, 2nd to 7th place LTO : 20.76 (26.3% SR) for 172.6pts (+227.1% ROI)
  • Class 5 runners  :16/75 (21.3% SR) for 122.3pts (+163.1% ROI)
  • beaten by 2 to 15 lengths LTO : 15/66 (22.7% SR) for 144.5pts (+218.9% ROI)
  • 2 yr olds are 9/50 (18% SR) for 43.8pts (+87.6% ROI)
  • maiden races : 8/44 (18.2% SR) for 23.5pts (+53.3% ROI)

Kevin Ryan's Class 4 to 6 runners at Carlisle running within 90 days of their last outing which was a 2nd to 7th place finish, beaten by less than 15 lengths are 19 from 65 (29.2% SR) for 162.4pts (+249.9% ROI) profit.

Company Asset is Kevin's only runner at this track today...

And since 2010, whenever Kevin had only had one runner at a track, that horse has won on 193 of 1131 occasions (17.1% SR) generating 729pts profit at an ROI of 64.5%. His 2yr olds fitting this bill are 57/330 (17.3% SR) for 633.5pts (+192% ROI) and in maiden races, his runners are 45/281 (16% SR) for 95.3pts (+33.9% ROI).

Kevin's 2yo male maidens are 22/127 (17.3% SR) for 67.4pts (+53.1% ROI), whilst his Carlisle sole representatives are 5/20 (25% SR) for 90.7pts (+453.5% ROI).

In fact, Company Asset is Kevin's only runner all day!

And on days when he's only had the one winner, he has won more than his fair share of races, visiting the winners enclosure on 86 of 456 occasions (18.9% SR) for profits of 595.8pts at an ROI of 130.7% since 2009. These runners can, of course, be categorised in respect of today's contest and that would look a little like this...

  • Males are 70/352 (19.9% SR) for 539.2pts (+153.2% ROI)
  • 2yr olds are 20/111 (18% SR) for 548.3pts (+494% ROI)
  • maidens are 21/110 (19.1% SR) for 81.8pts (+74.4% ROI)
  • here at Carlisle : 3/7 (42.9% SR) for 56pts (+800% ROI!)

His 2yo male maidens are 9/45 (20% SR) for 60pts (+133.3% ROI) since 2009 and in the last four seasons that becomes 8/27 (29.6% SR) for 76.8pts (+284.4% ROI).

Graham Lee takes the ride...

And not only did he win this race last year, he also has a good record riding for Kevin Ryan with 23 win s from 148 (15.5% SR) generating profits of 63.5pts at an ROI of 42.%. On the Ryan males, he is 21/120 (17.5% SR) for 85.5pts (+71.2% ROI), on 2yr olds he is 11/61 (18% SR) for 75.7pts (+124.2$% ROI) with a record reading 9/52 (17.3% SR) for 73pts (+140.5% ROI) in maidens.

Graham Lee has won 7 times from 35 rides (20% SR) for 84pts (+240% ROI) profit on Kevin Ryan's 2yo male maidens and has a 6/16 (37.5% SR) record on thos priced at 5/1 and shorter.

Obviously, as a maiden, there's no winning form to discuss, but Company Asset was only 3 lengths behind Squash last time out and she has gone on to finish 4th of 20 in a Class 2, £25k, 20-runner handicap, beaten by less than two lengths before going down by a similar margin in a Group 3 event last Saturday.

I'm not suggesting Company Asset is a Group horse, but if he can run to the same level as last time out, we should at the very least get a good run for our money placed at 9/2 BOG with Bet365 or BetVictor, currently (1.10am!) the two best prices on offer.

Once the full market is open, you'll be able to...

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Stat of the Day, 10th July 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 10th July 2015

I think I touched a raw nerve with some of you not quite used to my style of writing yesterday, when I suggested that you needed to be ready to sustain some losses.

Whilst myself and Matt are (quite rightly!) fiercely proud of our 28 to 29% strike rate ( ie 2-in-7), I was merely trying to manage your expectations, because to be quite frank (and I've said little/nothing about this until now), I was quite disappointed with some of the comments left / emails sent, just because we backed a couple of losers.

The recent purple patch of winners cannot and will not be sustained, it stands to reason that we're going to have losing runs, the most recent of which ended yesterday with a fine win for Jan Van Hoof in a tight finish. Delivered by David Nolan, he hit the front at just the right time in a race where the first four home were only separated by a neck or so.

The only negative was the 20p Rule 4 deduction we incurred, but even after that, our 2.66/1 returns were still almost 20% higher than taking the 9/4 SP. We now roll on to Friday and a trip to the Roodee for the...

9.15 Chester :

A Class 4, 1m 2.5f handicap for 3 yr olds, where I'm siding with Kevin Ryan's gelding Cyril, who can be backed at 9/2 BOG.

Since the start of the 2010 season, Kevin's record here on the Roodee is reasonable if not spectacular with 16 winners from 106 (15.1% SR) runners and 10.6pts (+10% ROI) of level stakes profits. And although we like a bit more meat on the bones than 10%, it's a good starting point and I've got seven (yes, 7!) different ways that you could back the Ryan runners and increase the ROI.

So, in decreasing sample size we have...

  1. Handicappers : 12/81 (14.8% SR) for 10.2pts (+12.6% ROI)
  2. Aged 2 to 4 : 14/75 (18.7% SR) for 26.8pts (+35.7% ROI)
  3. 6f to 11f : 12/67 (17.9% SR) for 14pts (+20.9% ROI)
  4. Classes 3 & 4 : 11/60 (18.3% SR) for 28.8pts (+48% ROI)
  5. July to September : 13/58 (22.4% SR) for 39pts (+67.3% ROI)
  6. Carrying 9-0 to 9-7 : 13/55 (23.6% SR) for 32.4pts (+58.8% ROI)
  7. 3/1 to 9/1 : 13/52 (25% SR) for 40.1pts (+77.1% ROI)

All of which are viable angles to aim at. Obviously you could make combinations of them in a host of ways, but with a slight relaxation of some of the categories' parameters, you could end up with the following set of criteria...

Kevin Ryan's Chester Class 3 & 4 handicappers aged 2 to 5 carrying 8-11 to 9-7 in the months of July to September over trips of 6f to 11f are 6/13 (46.2% SR) for 42.5pts (+326.9% ROI) profit, with those priced at 8/1 or shorter winning 5 of 7 (71.4$ SR) for 28.5pts (+406.8% ROI).

Kevin has five runners out on Friday, but with four of them going to York, this leaves Cyril as the sole representative on this track today, but Mr Ryan seems to do well with those solo travellers and since 2010 at tracks where he's had just one runner, he has managed to clock up 190 winners from 1101 (17.3% SR) runners, generating 735.6pts (+66.8% ROI) profit in the process.

On the Flat, those figures are 97/641 (15.1% SR) for 5832pts (+90.8% ROI), of which 2 to 4 yr olds are 87/545 (16% SR) for 605.9pts (+111.2% ROI). These younger horses are 85/528 (16.1% SR) for 612.3pts (+116% ROI).

Of those 528 runners, there's a 13/61 (21.3% SR) for 153.8pts (+252.2% ROI) record here in God's Own Country aka the North-West of England with Chester supplying 4 winners form 15 (26.7% SR) runners for profits of 20.1pts (+134.2% ROI).

Cyril was a winner last time out, scoring by a length and a quarter at Pontefract three weeks ago, doing all his work in the closing stages and staying on as though he had more to give and also wanted further. He gets a tougher challenge here and an extra half furlong, which should suit him, making him a serious contender at 9/2 BOG with both Boylesports & Seanie Mac, whilst everyone else seems to be offering 4/1 BOG (which is still worth having), as you'll see by...

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Stat of the Day, 11th March 2015

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2015

Our 3/1 BOG selection, Hellbender, was very well backed in the morning before drifting back out to 100/30 at the off and although he was weak in the market during the last couple of hours of trading, he still went off as favourite.

And when David Probert had him in a fairly handy position off the final bend, the opportunity was there to be taken. Unfortunately, the group he was chasing kicked on and he was unable to go with them, eventually coming home 5th of the 9 runners, some 9 lengths or so off the pace.

Things aren't quite falling for us at present and if I'd have taken the easy option of putting up a Mullins hotpot from Cheltenham yesterday, i'd have probably ended up with Annie Power! They do, however, say that if at first you don't succeed that you should try again. So, with that in mind, we'll go back for a second successive effort at winning the...

2.30 Southwell:

And another 7f handicap on the All-Weather. This one features Kevin Ryan's inform Realize who is priced up at 3/1 BOG in his bid to take advantage of a no doubt temporary leaner spell for the Mick Appleby yard.

Kevin's recent record here at Southwell is decent enough, but the market does tend to identify potential winners from his yard here and follow the shorter priced runners is often very beneficial.

Since the start of 2011, his sub-6/1 runners here at Southwell have won 39 of 90 races (43.3% SR) producing level stakes profits of some 46.8pts (+52% ROI) and in handicap contests over trips of 6f to a mile, he has had 17 winners from 36 (47.2% SR) for profits of 21.7pts (+60.3% ROI).

And in Shane Gray, Kevin is able to call upon the services of a jockey who couldn't really be in better form. 9 winners from 34 rides over the last 30 days is pretty good going by most jockeys' standards, but the last fortnight has been special for him with 5 winners from his last 13 rides, one of those wins was over today's trip on Realize's last outing 12 days ago.

Realize, therefore, also comes here in good nick and is actually seeking to complete a 7 furlong A/W handicap hat-trick inside seven weeks to further extend a decent career record that currently stands at 6 wins from 19 (31.6% SR) for 17.1pts (+89.9% ROI) profit had you backed him each time he has run.

He's 5/10 for 24.9pts on the All-Weather and his record here at Southwell contains a prior course and distance win. He is only up 3lbs for his most recent win when accompanied by Shane Gray who is 2/4 on this horse, having been on the saddle for both recent wins.

Shane only started riding Realize when the horse was moved to Kevin Ryan's yard and Kevin has managed to get a bit more out of him during that 2 wins from 4 sequence since the move.

Realize is tongue tied again today and has 4 wins from 6 with the equipment in place and the small number of runners should be to his advantage, especially if any non-runners reduce the field further. To date, he is 4/10 in races of 4 to 8 runners, having won 3 of the 5 such races on the A/W (31511).

So, the call today is a 1pt win bet on Realize at 3/1 BOG with BetVictor, whilst 11/4 seems to be generally available elsewhere, as you'll see when the full market shows after you...

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Stat of the Day, 29th May 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 29th May 2014

It was a five-lengths defeat for Tropenfeuer yesterday, I'm afraid. he stayed on well towards the finish to pass a few other runners, but he had been outpaced on the run to the home turn which ultimately cost him the race.

The end result was a 5th place finish as a 4/1 favourite, a point shorter than we'd taken earlier.

We're heading down the M6 to the North West today for the....

3.50 Haydock

Where Kevin Ryan's Ardmay looks to have conditions in his favour as he bids to return to winning ways.

Kevin has a good recent record here at Haydock with 15 winners from 83 runners over the last couple of years and this 18.1% strike rate has generated 179.8pts profit, a figure equivalent to 216.7% of stakes.

Now, it's fairly obvious that there must be some big-priced winners amongst that lot and we see that they came in non-handicap contests, leaving Kevin's results in handicaps looking a little more realistic.

From the original 15/83 record here at Haydock...
Handicaps only: 10/54 (18.5% SR) for 52.1pts (+96.5% ROI)
All runners at 8/1 or shorter: 10/36 (27.8% SR) for 21.0pts (+58.3% ROI)
Handicap runners at 8/1 or shorter:  8/29 (27.6% SR) for 21.7pts (+74.8% ROI)

He has two runners here today, but Ardmay is the one that interests me, now running on more suitable ground conditions off a mark well below his last win and over a more favoured trip.

Ardmay has only won four times from 22 attempts, but he's 2 from 7 on Good to Soft / Soft, which is how Haydock looks today. All four of his wins have come from 16 runs at the 7 to 8 furlong type of trip and he is 2 from 3 over this trip on Good to Soft / Soft ground, so conditions should be ideal.

He runs off a mark of just 79 today, despite his last win coming off 88 just over a year and nine runs ago, but in his defence, today is the first time he's has these conditions since that winning run and I wouldn't be surprised to see him perform better on this ground / trip.

In fact Kevin Ryan has proved to be very adept at getting horses to win after a run of defeats, once their mark has dropped below their last win. In the last three seasons, he has found 17 winners from the 135 runners  that hadn't won for at least five races and were now rated lower than their last win.

17/135 represents a 12.6% strike rate which in turn has produced 59.3pts ( +43.9% ROI) profits and those horses rated between 1lb and 12lbs lower than the last win have won 15 of 115 races (13% SR) for 63.4pts profit (+55.2% ROI).

So, with conditions seeming ideal and a trainer with a good record att he track, we should hopefully be back in the winners' enclosure by 4pm, courtesy of a 1pt win bet on Ardmay at 100/30 BOG with Boylesports.

Other bookies are, of course, available and you can see all their prices, when you..

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Stat of the Day, 26th March 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 26th March 2014

Nozic, no joy, I'm afraid. The old warrior ran well enough until an error 4 from home seemed to upset his rhythm and it wasn't long before he began to struggle.

To his and his jockey's credit, they persevered and saw the race out, albeit from the back of the pack, around 19 lengths behind the eventual winner. Nozic had drifted out from our advised 7/2 to an SP of 6/1 and the market was proven right not to back him.

Lowly Class 6 A/W Handicap action awaits us on Wednesday evening, as I try to unravel the...

7.30 Kempton:

Where jockey Kevin Stott claims 5lb aboard Kevin Ryan's Desert Colours, who comes here seeking a hat-trick inside a fortnight after winning at Wolverhampton at this grade and trip just five days ago.

Kevin Ryan is one of the more astute trainers when it comes to employing the services of the 5lb claiming jockeys and by doing so here will negate the vast bulk of the horse's 6lb penalty for Friday evening's two length victory.

In fact, since the start of 2011, Kevin Ryan has had a 5lb claimer on board 72 horses priced at 12/1 or under, with 16 (22.22% SR) of them going on to win with the resultant 46.8pts profit being the equivalent of 65% of stakes invested.

I did say that Desert Colours won a similar standard of race just 5 days ago over this same 7f trip and he's not the only one, for in the same 2011-14 time frame, there have been 133 winners from the 360 horses running under the following conditions: not heavy ground, running at the same trip or within 1f of LTO and at either the same class or up a grade from a win withing the last 5 days. 133/360 is a strike rate of 36.94% and has generated level stakes profits of 126.73pts (+35.2% ROI).

From which: the A/W figures are 46/130 (35.4% SR) for 49.1pts (+37.8% ROI).
On the A/W at the same class: 29/91 (31.9% SR) for 26.12pts (+28.7% ROI)
On the A/W at the same trip: 37/102 (36.3% SR) for 42.09pts (+41.3% ROI)
And on the A/W at the same trip & class: 22/68 (32.4% SR) for 21.44pts (+31.5% ROI)

All of which steers me towards a 1pt win bet on Desert Colours at 100/30 BOG with BetVictor, but other bookies are available, as you'll see if you..

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Here is today's racecard!

Doncaster Trainer Stats:

Lanigan

David Lanigan Does Well At Donny!

Decent cards up at Doncaster this Friday and Saturday, with the Racing Post Trophy taking centre stage – We highlight four yards with excellent track stats on Town Moor, plus a few big stables you might want to avoid. Read more

Newmarket Trainer Stats 12th October 2013

Rowley MileAs we gear up towards the excellent Newmarket card this Saturday, Andy Newton gives you three yards that do well at the track, plus three that you might want to avoid..... Read more

New BDH Squad Members: Welcome aboard Regi and Choosy…

New BDH Squad Members: Welcome aboard Regi and Choosy...

 

There was plenty of straight track sprinting action for me to delve into from the recent Ayr Gold Cup meeting, in search of some new members to freshen up our BDH attack squad.

The pace/draw angles were pretty clean-cut in all the cup races and that, to some extent, makes my job a little bit easier.

I actually pondered over adding my old mucker CHEVETON to our BDH squad. He ran a solid race from the 'wrong side of the tracks' in the Bronze Cup and although I will be keeping an eye open for him he just doesn't seem to be giving out the sparkle of old. He will go into my own personal 'Handicap Sleepers' list (he was actually already there) and if conditions are right for him I will back him, but he just hasn't quite done enough to step up into the exclusive BDH squad.

That honour goes to 2 runners from Saturday's Ayr Silver Cup. One who most will have noticed and another who I reckon should have skipped under the radar of most...

Race in focus: 2.40 Ayr (21-09-2013): William Hill Ayr Silver Cup – 6f, Class 2 Handicap (27 ran)

How the race played out…

Ayr Silver Cup Review

We all know this was all about those drawn up high. The first five home were drawn in stalls 15 or higher and 9 of the first 10 home were also drawn in stalls 15 or higher. The field did split into 2 here but the low numbers, surprisingly, didn't go and hug the far rail; a mistake in my opinion. In the previous days Bronze Cup, although it was also a high numbers race, the low numbers did the standard procedure of gunning it down their rail and they finished much closer to their highly drawn counterparts than the low numbers from this race did.

From the low numbers it was THUNDERBALL (Stall 1) & COLONEL MAK (Stall 7) that tried to set a pace but their bolts were pretty swiftly shot long before the race hotted up, fading to finish in 20th & 25th. It was always going to be a fruitless task trying to make serious strides down the middle of the track.

In the high group (near side) it was CHEVIOT in stall 25 that led the pack along and he held that position well into the final furlong. His front running provided an excellent tow into the race for the first 3 home (ANCIENT CROSS, FAST SHOT & AN SAIGHDIUR) who all sat on his tail before pouncing inside the final furlong.

It was quite clear that this was a race that favoured the high numbers and the low numbers really struggled to land any sort of blow.

The end result…

The winner ANCIENT CROSS had the luxury of being drawn in the 2nd highest box and as such had the 'golden highway' under the stands rail right underneath him all the way home. Although this was the highest mark he had ever won from he had placed/run well in the past from a slightly higher mark (100 & 101). The handicapper may well raise him above that mark after this and I imagine that may well anchor him for a bit. Second home, FAST SHOT, made a late surge for the line and was unlucky not to collect here. He has won and placed from around this mark in the past but if the handicapper knocks him up a couple of lbs he may also just find himself anchored, depends on exactly how much he is put up (if any). The Irish Raider AN SAIGHDUIR ran a career best in 3rd from a career high mark. He was ideally placed in the highest box of all (Stall 27) but had to move out a bit towards the centre to get a clear run, that may well have just cost him. PICTURE DEALER in 4th ran close enough to his best to suggest he may be able to pick something up from this mark. He is on a career high rating but is only a 4yo and could well have a bit more up his sleeve. The same comments could be applied to 5th home BOOTS AND SPURS, he ran a sound race and may be able to pick something up from his current mark. SIR REGINALD in 6th was the obvious eye-catcher. He was the only runner in the top 10 to be drawn in the bottom 14 stalls. The fact he came from stall 2 makes his 2 & 1/2 length 6th even more impressive. He actually came there with a serious chance in the final furlong but the efforts of running out in the middle ultimately left him a bit short in the finish. TAKE COVER is an interesting one. He finished a decent 7th here and he probably could have been done without the ground drying out. He is extremely lightly raced for a 6yo and he does give the impression that there is more still to come; he is one to watch from the well drawn 'beaten' horses.

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BDH(s) to follow…

SIR REGINALD (6th) (R Fahey)

He is the obvious one to take from the race but that doesn't mean we should ignore him. This was a mighty effort from his stall 2 outpost and his 2 & 1/2 length defeat gives further signs that he is back to somewhere near the form he showed as a youngster. It is easy to forget he was rated as high as 105 at one stage of his career and also ran well in Meydan from marks in the 100's at the start of the 2012 season.

I don't have too many conditions that I want to apply to him as the main pointer for me is his handicap mark of 93 (he ran off 91 in the Silver Cup). 93 looks within his range and he looks a much happier and sounder horse these days. We must remember that his 3yo season was curtailed after 1 run because of injury and his 4yo season was also interrupted a touch because of another minor injury. His last 3 runs fully suggest that he is now over those ailments and is ready to show what he can do.

1 small condition I would like to have in our favour is Paul Hanagan in the saddle. The form line when the former champion jockey is in the saddle is 2119946016 compared to 335205097072 when he isn't. Hanagan isn't imperative in the plate but he clearly is a bonus.

Apart from that I'm happy to evaluate him on a race by race basis.

Conditions – Happy to take him on a race by race basis. Hanagan a serious plus but not a necessity. His handicap mark of 93 looks well within him and a big field handicap at 6 or 6 & 1/2 furlongs is a feasible target.

CHOOSEDAY (12th) (K Ryan)

This 4yo is a less obvious choice but it shouldn't go unnoticed that he actually finished 2nd of the low drawn horses. He made a strong move to the front around the 1.5 furlong mark but his effort petered out on the unfavorable part of the track.

Pat Smullen was an interesting booking on the day and they obviously expected the horse to go well, only to be undone by the poor draw. This was actually the 2nd race in a row where he was berthed in an unfavorable stall, he was drawn on the wrong side of the consolation Great St Wilfrid Stakes at Ripon last time out but still managed to run a solid race in 4th. The race before that he fired in a career best on the figures in the Stewards Cup consolation race at Glorious Goodwood, giving clear signs that he is still a horse on the up.

Conditions wise we don't want him on anything too testing.

His Soft & Heavy ground form reads 53577

compared to...

His Good to Soft or better form of 1343024214277340

He does handle cut but the signs are that he is much better without it.

I would also rather have him over 6f than 5f...

5 furlong form is 6 runs | 0 wins | 1 placed effort

6 furlong form is 15 runs | 2 wins | 5 placed efforts

Apart from those small points of note he is another we can probably play race by race. He is only a 4yo and seems to still be on the upgrade, he just needs a decent draw to show what he can do.

Conditions – Happy to take him on a race by race basis although would prefer to see him on Good to Soft or better and over 6 furlongs.

SIR REGINALD & CHOOSEDAY now both enter my Proform ‘Horse Watcher’ tool and I will post on the Blog when they are due to run next.

Ben (BDH)

p.s. I'm really starting to dig into the National Hunt action now behind the scenes. Make sure YOU don't miss out on the action by joining the FREE updates list here >>> FREE NTF Updates List

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p.p.s One of the Handicap Sleepers on the Free guide just ran at Carlisle (Tuesday 24th depending on when you are reading this) in the shape of ROKER PARK. Everything looked in place for a decent run...but he ran a stinker! ...so I had a closer look. He was drawn in stall 10 of 10. Runners in stall 10 over 5f & 6f at Carlisle since 2007... 3 wins from 91 starts for a 3% S/R! They do win quite a bit less than they should as well. Watching the race it was clear that Roker Park was up against it and he could never get into a position from that draw.

Carlisle is one of those sprint tracks that pretends it is a straight...but is far from it! Bit like Beverley and places like that. You are turning a fair bit and if you are stuck out wide you really are up against it. On the face of it ROKER PARK ran a stinker, digging a bit deeper I'm more than willing to cut him a bit of slack for that run.

...also I should have checked this before I backed him! Yes my money was down and subsequently lost as RP failed to get anywhere from that devil of a stall that is stall 10! Still, lesson learned, notes taken, we move on poorer but all the wiser!