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2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

Run over 1m4f the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is one of Europe’s most valuable Group One contests that is open to horses of either sex that are aged 3 or older and staged at Longchamp racecourse.

In recent years the contest has been dominated by the younger horses with 11 of the last 18 winners being aged 3 years-old, while 13 of the last 18 - came here off the back of a last time out victory. Last year we saw the John Gosden-trained Enable, who had won the race in 2017 and 2018, finish runner-up to the Andre Fabre runner - Waldgeist - which was trainer Andre Fabre's eighth success in the race.

Enable will be back for more in 2020 though, as she will be looking to become the first horse to win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe three times.

Here at Geegeez, we are on-hand with all the key stats for the 2020 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe – this year run on Sunday 4th October.

 

 

 

 

Recent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Winners

2019 – Waldgeist (131/10)
2018 - Enable (Evs)
2017 – Enable (10/11 fav)
2016 – Found (6/1)
2015 – Golden Horn (9/2)
2014 – Treve (11/1)
2013 – Treve (9/2)
2012 – Solemia (33/1)
2011 – Danedream (20/1)
2010 – Workforce (6/1)
2009 – Sea The Stars (4/6 fav)
2008 – Zarkava (13/8 fav)
2007 – Dylan Thomas (11/2)
2006 – Rail Link (4/7 fav)
2005 – Hurricane Run (11/4)
2004 – Bago (10/1)
2003 – Dalakhani (9/4)
2002 – Marienbard (158/10)

Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Betting Trends

17/18 – Had won a Group 1 race before
16/18 – Had won over 1m4f before
14/18 – Had 4 or more runs that season
14/18 – Drawn in stall 8 or lower
13/18 – Priced 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Drawn in stall 6 or lower
13/18 – Had won at least 5 times before
12/18 – Won last time out
12/18 – Had run at Longchamp before
11/18 – Had won at Longchamp previously
11/18 – Aged 3 years-old
10/18 – Placed favourites
9/18 – Won by a French-based yard
8/18 – Ran at Longchamp last time out
8/18 – Female winners
5/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Won by a UK-based yard
3/18 – Trained by Andre Fabre (won the race 8 times in all)
2/18 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (2016, 2007)
3 of the last 11 Epsom Derby winners that season have won
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 15/2
Trainer John Gosden has won 3 of the last 5 runnings
Since 1976 we’ve seen just 3 winners aged 5 or older
18 of the last 26 winners were aged 3 years-old
Jockey Olivier Peslier has won the race 4 times
Jockey Frankie Dettori has won the race 6 times

 

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Princess Zoe aiming for fairytale Cadran victory

Tony Mullins is one man who will not be disappointed with the prospect of heavy ground ahead of Princess Zoe’s step up to Group One company in the Prix du Cadran on Saturday.

The mare has progressed from being beaten off a handicap mark of just 64 on her first run for Mullins after arriving from Germany to winning her her next four races, including two at the Galway Festival in the space of a week.

She handled the step up to Listed company last time out on heavy ground, and Mullins hopes similar conditions at ParisLongchamp may just slow the favourite Call To Wind down a little.

Princess Zoe has made giant strides this season
Princess Zoe has made giant strides this season (PA Wire)

“I certainly never expected to be in a Group One with her, but when we started training her I knew we had a very good handicapper. I certainly didn’t think we’d be here within three months, second-favourite too,” said Mullins.

“Admittedly it was a much lower-grade race, but the evidence from Galway was that she was only starting to open up over two-miles-one and it is a savage hill there.

“From that we are confident she’ll stay (two and half miles), but you can never be sure until you dip your toe in the water.”

Call To Wind won the race two years ago for Freddy Head on good ground – but was beaten into second on heavy 12 months ago.

Mullins went on: “He (Call The Wind) has a high rating (115), but I’ve been through his form meticulously over the last few days and I don’t think he’s run to above 110 when there’s been a good cut in the ground.

“He’s still a formidable horse, even with cut, but I’m hoping, because we’ve no worries on the ground, it might just level it off and give us a serious chance.”

Apprentice jockey Joey Sheridan has ridden Princess Zoe the last twice and connections felt no need to change a winning partnership, especially given the regard in which he holds the youngster.

Muillins said: “We have the utmost confidence in Joey, I think he’s a star in the making but he’s a long way to go. It’s only every 10 or 15 years you see a star coming through and I think I see one here.

“He’s had three Listed winners this year, not using his claim, on three different horses which is exceptional for a 5lb claimer. And he’s not riding for the top stables, it’s rare what he’s done.

“It’s massively exciting for us and I hope it is for everyone around us as well.”

David Menuisier saddles Wonderful Tonight at ParisLongchamp
David Menuisier saddles Wonderful Tonight at ParisLongchamp (Edward Whitaker/PA)

The other Group One on the card, the Prix de Royallieu, features a five-strong British challenge which includes the Ralph Beckett-trained Manuela De Vega and John Gosden’s German Oaks winner Miss Yoda.

David Menuisier saddles Wonderful Tonight, winner of a Deauville Group Three and fifth in the Prix Vermeille. She is stepping up to a mile and six furlongs for the first time.

The trainer said: “It’s not going to be a walk in the park as it’s a Group One and it will be a competitive race. The trip is the real question mark. If I had the guts I would have waited until the mile-and-a-half race at Ascot on Champions Day, but though it’s normally soft it might not be.

“She was strong past the line in the Minerve and the ground that day was really bad, so she should stay the trip, but until you try, you don’t know.

“She has been great and she has not grown into her coat yet, so she still looks amazing as ever. We’ve not done a great deal since the Vermeille, where she ran a stormer, and a career-best as she was put up 1lb – and that was on ground that was not in her favour.

“Hopefully she will run another big race at the weekend.”

The Revenant (in red) was second on Champions Day at Ascot
The Revenant (in red) was second on Champions Day at Ascot (Simon Cooper/PA)

Francis-Henri Graffard, meanwhile, brings his stable star The Revenant back after a lay off as he aims to to win the Prix Daniel Wildenstein for a second successive year. He was last seen finishing second in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot.

“He was very impressive last year. He’s a fantastic horse, but this season has been difficult as we knew he wasn’t going to have his ground,” Graffard told Sky Sports Racing.

“I feel he’s in the same form as last year. He’s worked really well, he will love the ground and I’m happy with his condition.

“Will he need the race? I don’t think so, but we’ll see on Saturday. He’s such a nice horse. We’ll see if he goes back to Ascot. We are running with a very fresh horse this year.”

Monday Musings: Allez France

We were simply kidding ourselves, writes Tony Stafford. Friday May 15th sounded a nice date for racing in the UK to resume and, with three meetings in France today as the shining example and some of the domestic trainers suggesting they would be ready by then, we waited for Boris to offer some encouragement on Sunday night. No such luck.

The PM’s message, supplanting the old “stay home” slogan with “stay secure” while allowing extra outside time for exercising was hardly the hoped-for signal suggesting the return of professional sport in any form. Horse racing it appears, even behind closed doors, will have to wait its turn.

At least horseracing enthusiasts, starved of meaningful action for eight weeks, will have full coverage on Sky Sports Racing from all three returning reunions, Longchamp, Compiegne and Toulouse. Coverage from Longchamp starts with a bang at 9.55 with the five-furlong Prix Saint Georges, one of four Group races on the Parisian track.

Wall-to-wall action will ensue until late evening and whatever else is uncertain in these unnatural times, there will be a relief that betting on something tangible will at last be available. Bookmakers and the exchanges will be doing great business and in the way of such things, the possible resumption dates for the UK are probably most accurately signalled by Betfair Exchange’s special markets. June 1st (on or before), so two weekends on from the putative first date on Friday, at 5 a.m. today was a pessimistic 2.26 (5-4) for yes and 1.72 (8/11) for no.

Slightly less predictable was the market on Royal Ascot going ahead on the normal opening date of June 16 which was 2.84 (almost 15-8) for yes and 1.52 (1-2) for no. Racing had seemed to believe that the Royal meeting was sacrosanct, but maybe the monarch will be open to a date adjustment, or perish the thought, even accept a one-year blank. A restart of racing by July 1 was 1.2 or 5-1 on. No doubt the talks between government and the racing lobby, with the more vociferous trainers at its helm, will be continuing. For the sport to expect to be made a special case might be hard to gain much traction while so many others are still making life-changing sacrifices every day.

So let us enjoy the French for a change. At least their sport has a tradition where spectators are almost an after-thought, so sparsely have they traditionally attended except when the Brits come en bloc to the Arc. The Pari-Mutuel monopoly over generations meant a traditional culture of the morning Tierce bet in the coffee shops and bars and non-attendance at the sports. The betting there, like everywhere else, has benefited from technological advance and it is hard to argue with a racing administration that can produce three cards that between them offer around £800,000 in overall prize money on a single day.

I think I’ve mentioned before that when Racing TV (ex Racing UK) pinched Irish Racing from At The Races (now Sky Racing), few thought that having the French stuff dumped on them as a token was anywhere near an equitable exchange. But they quickly found an excellent equivalent to Racing UK’s outgoing professional Frenchman, Claude Charlet, in Laurent Barberin, whose patient unflappable style and genuine knowledge of his subject has been highly impressive. While many of Ireland’s races on busy UK days nowadays inevitably clash and require split screens or even delayed relaying, Sky has made a big move forward. Today will be a great opportunity and for its presenters represents something of a penalty kick.

The trio of fixtures reflects France Galop’s new-found flexibility where its financial muscle is shrewdly stretched throughout the day. Longchamp kicks off mid-morning, 10.55 a.m. in France, so an hour earlier here and there will be unbroken coverage throughout its ten-race card which concludes at 2.35 p.m. BST.  It would be hard to imagine a single UK meeting on a Monday afternoon offering anywhere near as much as £230,000 yet remarkably that figure is comfortably outstripped by its near-neighbour Compiegne, around 60 miles to the north, whose own ten-race card weighs in at a hefty £350k.

Compiegne is an all-jumps programme with no race worth less than £30k. It offers decent fields throughout with the top trainers and jockeys all on show. Sky again will show all ten races from the 3.05 starting time to a 7.35pm conclusion. A good proportion of the evening mixed fixture at Toulouse will also be featured. This begins at 5.20 UK time, so overlaps Compiegne. Another ten-race affair begins with a hurdle race and two chases, with the remaining seven events on the Flat. Two of these are Listed (worth £38k each in total), while two more are confined to Arabians, including a Group 2, the finale at 9.42pm.

Toulouse, in the South of France, is one of the more important provincial tracks, and offers only £10k less overall prize money tonight than the £230k available at the Group race-sprinkled principal meeting at Longchamp.

Listening to Barberin, from his home in Bordeaux yesterday, I got the impression he would be in for the long haul today. It seems as though he hopes to abandon ship after the second Listed race at Toulouse, (7.20) when he and the cameras might be taking their leave, so Arabian horse fans could be denied. But that still leaves around 25 mostly high class French races to tickle the punters’ fancy. My own fancy, I must confess, has been tickled by one name, Je Deviens Moi – I want to be (or become) me! He runs in a conditions race at 5.05 at Compiegne and, while up in class, goes for four in a row.

I would hope that, following France’s example, when UK racing does return there could be at least one attention-grabbing card rather than some routine betting-shop dross that can do little more than stifle enthusiasm. Okay, we want opportunities for all owners and trainers, but in the crucial early stages, racing should have something special to offer. The good horses have been training towards their comebacks and the possible normal path to stardom. They will need suitable targets, especially as if we do have to wait for a start into June, the season will already have been drastically truncated.

The French have successfully averted one major political threat to their return and it came from a by no means inconsiderable quarter. It seems French Ligue 1 football teams were unimpressed by having their return to action delayed until September or whenever and tried a spiteful legal block against racing’s resumption. In Nicolas Clement, the trainers have got the right man at the helm!

Now the stage – Covid-19 permitting, and the numbers of fatalities and infections in France have been going down steadily – should be set for their mile Classics being run in three weeks. Let’s all hope for a problem-free day. At least the spectators won’t be getting in the way - not that they ever do over there!

- TS