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Alpinista hits the heights in Lancashire Oaks

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Alpinista stamped her class on the bet365 Lancashire Oaks at Haydock.

Sir Mark Prescott’s filly set the standard on her runner-up finish behind the brilliant Love in the Yorkshire Oaks last summer, after which she was narrowly beaten in a Group Three at Newmarket.

She got the current campaign off to a successful start in a Listed event at Goodwood in April – and having missed a couple of intended engagements since, she was the 11-4 favourite for the Group Two feature.

With front-running Oaks runner-up Mystery Angel beginning to fade inside the final two furlongs, the Roger Varian-trained pair of Cabeletta and Lady Hayes were left fighting it out for the lead.

However, Alpinista picked up well in the hands of her regular partner Luke Morris to win the day by just over a length.

Morris said: “We’d chosen not to run her a couple of times because of the ground. Today they’ve rolled the dice and she seems to handle firm ground as well as soft ground.

“She was second to Love in the Yorkshire Oaks last year and she’s a Group Two winner now.

“These are the horses you want to ride when you’re getting up early in a morning and getting home late in the evening.”

Prescott’s assistant, William Butler, said: “She’s very game and we’ve trained lots of her family, who were very game as well.

“We were slightly worried about the ground as she was so effective on firm last summer, but her class got her through.

“She’s a Group Two winner, Group One second and dual Listed winner and you can pick your targets now.

“There are races like the Lillie Langtry (at Goodwood) and the Yorkshire Oaks and we’ll make a plan.”

Alpinista edges out Makawee in thrilling Goodwood finish

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Last year’s Yorkshire Oaks runner-up Alpinista began the new campaign with a hard-fought victory over Makawee in the British Stallion Studs EBF Daisy Warwick Fillies’ Stakes at Goodwood.

Five lengths behind Love at York in August, she signed off for the campaign with a narrow defeat in a Group Three at Newmarket and was sent off the 13-8 favourite against just three rivals, one of whom, Oriental Mystique, is also owned by Kirsten Rausing.

Makawee set out to make all under James Doyle, but Luke Morris looked to have him covered as he moved his Alpinista alongside.

However, Makawee stuck to her task gamely and Morris had to get pretty serious with Sir Mark Prescott’s filly, who eventually scrambled home by a short head with Oriental Mystique a length back in third.

“The plan was to make all today, but James was quite keen to go on, so I was quite happy to take a close sit,” Morris told Racing TV.

“When I finally drew up to him at the two pole I was fairly confident I had his measure, but fair play to the runner-up, she was very brave.

“My filly is probably a gallop or two short of her best on her homework and she was just a bit ring-rusty when I went for her.

“Hopefully there’s plenty of improvement in her going forwards.

“Miss Rausing’s horses generally come into their own with time. We had the dam (Alwilda) at Sir Mark’s and she improved with age, so I’d like to think this filly will take a similar path.

“There’s stamina in the pedigree, but being by Frankel, there’s a bit more speed in there. Sir Mark will come up with a plan.

“She was second to Love in the Yorkshire Oaks and the programme sort of marks itself out for a filly like that.”

Stat of the Day, 13th June 2020

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Friday's pick was...

12.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG WON at 11/1 (Held up, headway approaching final furlong, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by three quarters of a length)

Saturday's pick runs in the...

1.15 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Why?...

Again we'll start with the racecard information...

...which tells us that we've a 5yr old gelding who was in good form prior to lockdown (last seen just over 4 months ago, but probably would have ran early April), drops in class today and is being ridden by a jockey who has a good recent record for today's trainer, who himself is one of my ones to follow at this track.

Time to be more specific!

The horse was 23122 in his last five starts over trips of 1m1.5f to 1m4f, all at Class 4 bar a narrow defeat at Class 2, so form, trip and class shouldn't be his undoing today. He is, admittedly, unproven on grass, but (a) you can't have everything and (b) that's why he was 6/1 overnight.

Onto the Trainer Jockey 1 Year report (TJ365 as I abbreviate it), pretty straightforward stuff. Luke Morris has a 1 in 4 record for trainer Ed Walker over the last year the 15.73pts profit at Industry SP is boosted to 25.6pts at Betfair SP at an ROI of 44.9%. This includes...

  • 14/41 (34.2%) for 35.1pts (+85.6%) with male runners
  • 13/44 (29.6%) for 26.22pts (+59.6%) in handicaps
  • 10/34 (29.4%) for 19.38pts (+57%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
  • and 7/21 (33.3%) for 17.24pts (+82.1%) at Class 5

giving us...

which includes...

*

Next up is my cunningly entitled "Newb Flat" angle, which is probably easy to work out ie trainers to follow at Newbury and Ed Walker is one of three whose handicappers I keep an eye out for, because blindly backing them over the last three seasons would have rewarded you as follows...

...a strike rate is excess of 20%, good profit at a rate of almost 85p in the pound and an A/E north of 1.3 is all good news and closer inspection of the 9 winners & 44 runners shows...

  • 6/16 (37.9%) for 21.93pts (+137.1%) at Class 5
  • 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.76pts (+140%) in races worth less than £4k
  • 4/13 (30.8%) for 36.35pts (+279.6%) if fields of 11-13 runners
  • and 3 from 6 950%) for 21.62pts (+360.4%) in June

*

So, I've now covered everything I highlighted from the racecard and there's plenty to go at as usual, enough to hang a bet from indeed, but wait, there's more! As both the TJ365 report and the Newb Flat angle were very successful at Class 5, I might as well share one of my other saved micros with you. It's a logical follow on from the above and you probably won't be surprised to read that...


has generated...

from which...

  • 25/98 (25.5%) for 38.88pts (+39.7%) in sub-£4k contests
  • 22/73 (30.1%) for 57.13pts (+78.3%) during May to July
  • 14/49 (28.6%) for 31.98pts (+65.3%) over trips of 10-12 furlongs
  • 8/26 (30.8%) for 14.26pts (+54.9%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 6/15 (40%) for 22.93pts (+152.9%) here at Newbury

with


giving

...from which Newbury runners are 2 from 4 and LTO runners-up are 2 from 2...

...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BoyleSports & Unibet at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 11th March 2020

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Tuesday's pick was...

3.15 Sedgefield : Roxyfet @ 9/2 BOG 2nd at 11/4 (Held up and behind, good headway on outside chasing leaders 4 out, 2nd 2 out, ridden and stayed on run-in, always held) 

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

1.55 Lingfield :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Generally, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.15am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 6, A/W Handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on polytrack worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

This 5 yr old gelding won this race last year and aside from that, he became of immediate interest due to his overall record which includes the following under today's conditions...

  • 3 wins and 6 places from 13 here at Lingfield
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 8 over this 1m2f trip
  • 3 wins and 3 places from 6 over course and distance
  • 2 wins and 2 places from 4 under jockey Luke Morris
  • 2 wins from 2 under Luke over C&D
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 in cheekpieces
  • 2 from 2 in cheekpieces over C&D
  • 2 wins and a place from 5 this year
  • 2 from 2 over C&D this year
  • and 2 from 2 under Luke Morris over C&D this year whilst wearing cheekpieces...

Luke Morris also does well on trainer Simon Dow's other horses, clocking up 10 winners from 47 (21.3% SR) for 17.3pts (+36.9% ROI) and here's another of my baker's dozens of relevant profitable angles...

  • 10/46 (21.7%) for 18.3pts (+39.9%) on the A/W
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) on males
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) in handicaps
  • 10/45 (22.2%) for 19.3pts (+43%) on Polytrack
  • 9/35 (25.7%) for 24.3pts (+69.3%) with 4-6 yr olds
  • 9/33 (27.3%) for 29.1pts (+88.3%) within 30 days of their last run
  • 9/32 (28.1%) for 28.2pts (+88.1%) in fields of 9-13 runners
  • 9/31 (29%) for 31.1pts (+100.4%) at odds of 9/4 to 11/1
  • 7/29 (24.1%) for 23.4pts (+80.6%) in races worth less than £4,000
  • 7/24 (29.2%) for 28.4pts (+118.2%) at Class 6
  • 6/23 (26.1%) for 20.3pts (+88%) here at Lingfield
  • 5/15 (33.3%) for 13.7pts (+91.2%) on those with 1-3 previous C&D wins
  • and 4/11 (36.4%) for 18.1pts (+164.1%) over trips of 1m2f to 1m6f...

...whilst Simon + Luke + 3-6 yr old male A/W (Polytrack) handicappers + 9/4 to 11/1 + 1-30 dslr = 8/13 (61.5% SR) for 45pts (+346.1% ROI) and these include 5 winners from 9 (55.6%) for 30.1pts (+334.6%) in Class 6 contests worth less than £4k here at Lingfield...

...pointing towards...a 1pt win bet on Subliminal @ 13/2 BOG as was available from Bet365, Coral & Ladbrokes amongst others at 8.10am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...

...click here for the betting on the 1.55 Lingfield

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!