Stat of the Day, 13th June 2020
Friday's pick was...
12.30 Wolverhampton : Steelriver @ 10/1 BOG WON at 11/1 (Held up, headway approaching final furlong, led inside final furlong, ran on to win by three quarters of a length)
Saturday's pick runs in the...
Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".
Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.
Who?
Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG
...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m2f on Good to Soft ground worth £3,493 to the winner...
Why?...
Again we'll start with the racecard information...
...which tells us that we've a 5yr old gelding who was in good form prior to lockdown (last seen just over 4 months ago, but probably would have ran early April), drops in class today and is being ridden by a jockey who has a good recent record for today's trainer, who himself is one of my ones to follow at this track.
Time to be more specific!
The horse was 23122 in his last five starts over trips of 1m1.5f to 1m4f, all at Class 4 bar a narrow defeat at Class 2, so form, trip and class shouldn't be his undoing today. He is, admittedly, unproven on grass, but (a) you can't have everything and (b) that's why he was 6/1 overnight.
Onto the Trainer Jockey 1 Year report (TJ365 as I abbreviate it), pretty straightforward stuff. Luke Morris has a 1 in 4 record for trainer Ed Walker over the last year the 15.73pts profit at Industry SP is boosted to 25.6pts at Betfair SP at an ROI of 44.9%. This includes...
- 14/41 (34.2%) for 35.1pts (+85.6%) with male runners
- 13/44 (29.6%) for 26.22pts (+59.6%) in handicaps
- 10/34 (29.4%) for 19.38pts (+57%) in races worth less than £4,000 to the winner
- and 7/21 (33.3%) for 17.24pts (+82.1%) at Class 5
giving us...
which includes...
*
Next up is my cunningly entitled "Newb Flat" angle, which is probably easy to work out ie trainers to follow at Newbury and Ed Walker is one of three whose handicappers I keep an eye out for, because blindly backing them over the last three seasons would have rewarded you as follows...
...a strike rate is excess of 20%, good profit at a rate of almost 85p in the pound and an A/E north of 1.3 is all good news and closer inspection of the 9 winners & 44 runners shows...
- 6/16 (37.9%) for 21.93pts (+137.1%) at Class 5
- 5/12 (41.7%) for 16.76pts (+140%) in races worth less than £4k
- 4/13 (30.8%) for 36.35pts (+279.6%) if fields of 11-13 runners
- and 3 from 6 950%) for 21.62pts (+360.4%) in June
*
So, I've now covered everything I highlighted from the racecard and there's plenty to go at as usual, enough to hang a bet from indeed, but wait, there's more! As both the TJ365 report and the Newb Flat angle were very successful at Class 5, I might as well share one of my other saved micros with you. It's a logical follow on from the above and you probably won't be surprised to read that...
has generated...
from which...
- 25/98 (25.5%) for 38.88pts (+39.7%) in sub-£4k contests
- 22/73 (30.1%) for 57.13pts (+78.3%) during May to July
- 14/49 (28.6%) for 31.98pts (+65.3%) over trips of 10-12 furlongs
- 8/26 (30.8%) for 14.26pts (+54.9%) with LTO runners-up
- and 6/15 (40%) for 22.93pts (+152.9%) here at Newbury
with
giving
...from which Newbury runners are 2 from 4 and LTO runners-up are 2 from 2...
...steering us towards...a 1pt win bet on Singing Sheriff @ 5/1 BOG as was offered by Bet365, BoyleSports & Unibet at 8.20am Saturday, but as always please check your BOG status. To see what your preferred bookie is quoting...
...click here for the betting on the 1.15 Newbury
Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!
REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS
P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!
