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Stat of the Day, 21st January 2014

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 21st January 2014

Kyllachy Star was 3rd at 11/4 yesterday, after we backed him at 7/2, but I've got to hold my hands up here and tell you I made a massive error!

I completely overlooked the winner of the race, Ace Master who was a bet on two of the plethora of micro-systems I often use for SotD. How and why this happened is beyond me and I only noticed at lunchtime.

That doesn't mean the stats weren't valid, nor does it mean I would have picked Ace Master. What would (and should!) have happened is that I would have chosen a different race, because this aberration aside, I had a decent day off two poor-looking cards, including another profitable day for the Double Dutch, but I digress!

My mistake, I owe you one, let's move on to the...

4.15 Southwell:

And a horse that I backed at 14/1 last Tuesday, when she eventually ran out a 10/1 winner over course and distance. We're not getting 14's or even 10's about Guishan this time around, but 6/1 BOG (PP) is more than fair based on last week's effort.

1. Guishan is trained by Michael Appleby, whose record in Southwell A/W handicaps with horses priced at 6/1 or under is 27 wins from 87  = 31.03% for level stakes profits of 37.17pts, an ROI of 42.72%.

2. Michael Appleby's last time out winners have gone on to follow-up on 7 of the 25 occasions they been sent back out within seven weeks of that last win and were priced on the 5/2 to 10/1 category. It's a fairly small sample size, but the 28% strike rate has yielded 21pts profit for an ROI of 84%.

3. Guishan is another of my "Back To Form" horses ie running on the A/W within 30 days of a win that came after a string of at least 3 unplaced efforts. Guishan was 2nd over course and distance on her debut almost ten months ago, but then failed to make the frame in any of her subsequent seven efforts before winning last week, making her a new qualifier for this particular microsystem, which found 58 winners from 193 runners priced at 6/1 or under last year. That 30.05% strike rate produced level stakes profits of 70.22pts, or the equivalent of 36.38% over stakes invested.

Guishan carries a 6lb penalty for last week's win, but she led from the off and controlled the race, eventually winning by a couple of lengths and looking like she had plenty in reserve, had a challenge been thrown down.  She wore cheekpieces for the first time last week to good effect and they are applied again for this one. Any repeat of last week's performance could well and should be enough to take this race.

I'm on Guishan at 6/1 BOG with PP and after my recent run, I could always take the safety-first E/W option at those prices, but they do say that fortune favours the brave, so it's win only for me today. You can, of course, choose your own staking method after you...

Click here for the latest betting on the 4.15 Southwell

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Trainer Stats: 13th Feb 2013

Mullins

Mullins Horses Are In Tip-Top Order

A real mixed bag of trainers have made it onto Andy Newton’s 'HOT LIST' this week – see which ones here....... Read more

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012

Stat of the Day 17/10

Stat of the Day 17/10

Stat of the Day, 17th October 2012

Well, Barista certainly gave it his all yesterday, but didn't quite have enough in his locker to see off the imperious Richard Hughes on board a well-fancied odds-on jolly. We expected that to be the main danger, but we had taken 8/1 E/W on an eventual 9/2 shot, so the value was certainly there and we picked up another 0.3pts for our troubles. It was, of course, an easy forecast for many of you and the CSF paid £4.87 and the Exacta paid £6.80, so fair play / well done to those of you on that.

Just a short trip for SotD today, a mere 30 miles up the A46 from yesterday's race at Leicester, we pitch ourselves at Colwick Park for a 16-runner, 10-furlong, Class 3 Handicap on Soft (Good to Soft in places) ground, better known to you as the...

3.15 Nottingham

As you've probably all gathered by now, I'm a bit of a numbers geek and today post will further reinforce that theory!

Firstly when it comes top analysing recent trainer form in Nottingham handicaps, Michael Appleby has been represented in more races than any of the other top 15 trainers in action today, so we're getting a decent sample size to work from. In the last two years, Michael has sent twenty runners to compete in these type of events and his record stands up to the best of them. A win strike rate of 30% via 6 winners producing level stakes profits of 54pts (270% profit) makes him the most successful in terms of profits and the 3rd highest strike rate. His place strike is also excellent with 10 of the 20 making the frame and backing all twenty as E/W bets would have netted a cool 71pts profit.

So, we've got a trainer, we now need a horse!  Well, quite a chunk of any profit made by Mr Appleby here at Nottingham has come from today's selection Art Scholar.

Art Scholar is 2 from 2 at Nottingham over course & distance, including a comfortable-enough win on his last outing a week ago, where he came in at 25/1 beating the runner-up by the best part of 2 lengths and staying on/pulling away at the end. Incidentally, we'd backed the 3rd place horse at 12/1 E/W for SotD that day, so Art Scholar caught my eye then.

The horse himself is in cracking form aside from last week's win: 8 wins from his last 25 races over the last 16 months or so, including two at 25/1, two at 9/1 and two at 6/1, helping him to a level stakes profit of some 67pts from 25 races. A further four place-finishes and four fourth-places have meant he has only been out of the top four on nine of those 25 outings: a very good level of consistency. (That's a lot of fours, sorry!)

Art Scholar is also 4 from 8 at today's trip and last week's win was on similar Good to Soft ground that he'll encounter today. All in all, I think he has an excellent chance of putting in another good show for us.

He does carry a 6lb penalty for last week's victory and this is reflected in his price today, but the 10/1 BOG currently available at Stan James looks generous (he's as low as 13/2 in places and 8/1 generally) and as a 16-runner race, we're aiming for another top four finish (1/4 odds paid for the place). So, for me (and SotD records) it's 0.5pts E/W on Art Scholar at 10/1 BOG with Stan James, but you really should take time to...

Click here for all the latest odds for the 3.15 Nottingham.

P.S. Michael Appleby has another handicapper on the card today: as Demora runs in the 4.20 race. She was a 14/1 winner last time out at Bath (5 weeks ago), but she runs from 1lb out of the handicap today and whilst having a chance of a place, she'll find it tougher today. She is however, available at 14/1 BOG with Paddy Power, if you were so inclined.


Trainer Stats: 26th July 2012

Hannon's Horses Are In Flying Form

With Glorious Goodwood just around the corner, this week Andy Newton gives you 7 flat trainers that are in-form... Read more

Trainer Stats: 22nd March 2012

The Johnston Yard Are In Cracking Form

Andy Newton continues with his weekly look at the yards that are firing in the winners at present.

Read more