Tag Archive for: newbury horse racing tips

Sat TV Trends: 28th Nov 2020

Another huge Saturday ahead with the Ladbrokes Trophy Chase - plus the Fighting Fifth Hurdle as the main contests at Newbury and Newcastle – As always, we’ve got all the ITV TV trends to help you find the best winning profile of past winners of the main races.

 

Newbury Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/RacingTV)


1.50 – Get Your Ladbrokes £1 Free Bet Today Handicap Hurdle Cl2 2m4f ITV

4 previous runnings
All four winners returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
2 of the last 4 winners trained by Nicky Henderson
3 of the last 4 winners were aged 6 years-old
Paul Nicholls and Philip Hobbs have won this race in the past
2 winning favourites (joint) in the last 4 years
Trainer Nicky Henderson has a 31% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Tom Lacey has a 27% record with his hurdlers at the track
Trainer Dan Skelton has a 3% record with his hurdlers at the track

 

2.25 Ladbrokes Gerry Fielden Intermediate Handicap (Listed Race) (A Limited Handicap) Cl1 2m69y ITV

13/14 – Had at least 4 runs over hurdles before
13/14 – Aged 6 or younger
13/14 – Won over 2m (hurdles) before
12/14 – Won just 1-2 times in the past (hurdles)
11/14 – Irish, French or German bred
11/14 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
8/14 – Carried 11-1 or less in weight
7/14 – Had raced at Newbury before
7/14 – Unplaced favourites
6/14 – Officially rated between 126-134
6/14 – Aged 5 years-old
5/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
5/14 – Winning favourites
3/14 – Raced at Aintree last time out
2/14 – Won last time out
8 of the last 13 winners were aged 4 or 5 years-old
Epatante (3/1) won the race in 2019
Global Citizen (5/1) won the race in 2018

 

3.00 – Ladbrokes Trophy Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) ITV 3m2f110y

16/18 – Aged 8 or younger
16/18 – Had won between 2-5 previous races over fences
16/18 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m before
15/18 - Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Finished in the first 3 last time out
13/18 – Carried 10-13 or more
13/18 – Had run at Newbury before (9 had won over fences there)
12/18 – Winning distance – 2 ½ lengths or more
12/18 – Aged either 6 or 7 years-old
12/18 – Had won a Grade 3 or better class chase race before
12/18 – Rated between 140 and 151
12/18 – Had a previous run that season
10/18 – Won last time out
10/18 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
10/18 – Unplaced favourites
8/18 – Ran at either Aintree (2) or Cheltenham (6) last time out
6/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (2 of last 8)
2/18 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/18 – Trained by Colin Tizzard (2 of the last 4)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 9/1
Since 1968 there has only been one winner aged in double-figures (1981 Diamond Edge, 10)
Since 1990 (29 runnings) there have been 14 winners (48%) aged 7 years-old

 

3.35- Ladbrokes Handicap Chase (for the Jim Joel Memorial Trophy) Cl2 2m1f ITV

16/18 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/18 – Had run within the last 5 weeks
11/18 – Officially rated between 126-136
11/18 – French bred
10/18 – Had won a UK chase race over 2m1f
10/18 – Had won between 2-5 chase races in the UK
10/18 – Winning distance – 2 1/4 lengths or more
9/18 – Placed in their last race
9/18 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
7/18 – Unplaced favourites
7/18 – Winning favourites
5/18 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
5/18 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/18 – Won a chase race at Newbury before
2/18 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/18 – Trained by Venetia Williams
10 of the last 14 winners carried between 10-8 and 11-3
Magic Saint (3/1 fav) won the race in 2019

 

Newcastle Horse Racing Betting Trends (ITV/ATR)


2.05 –
BetFair Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade 1) Cl1 2m ITV

18/18 – Won a hurdles race over at least 2m before
16/18 – Won at least a Grade 2 hurdle before
16/18 – Finished in the first two in their latest race
15/18 – Raced in the Champion Hurdle later that same season
15/18 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
14/18 – Placed favourites
13/18 – Officially rated 151 or higher
12/18 – Won their last race
11/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
10/18 – Placed in the top 6 in the Champion Hurdle later that season
8/18 – Favourites that won (1 joint)
6/18 – Won by an Irish bred horse
5/18 – Raced over hurdles at Newcastle before
4/18 – Won by an Irish based yard
4/18 - Trained by Nicky Henderson (4 of last 12)
3/18 – Won by a previous winner of the race
2/18 - Trained by Paul Nicholls (2 of last 6)
2/18 – Won the Champion Hurdle later that same season (2008 Punjabi, 2018 Buveur d’Air)
The average winning SP in the last 18 runnings is 6/1

Note: The 2008 renewal was staged at Wetherby, and the 2010 race at Newbury

 

3.15 – BetFair Rehearsal Chase (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV

15/16 – Didn’t win their last race
14/16 – Irish bred
14/16 – Carried 10-12 or more in weight
13/16 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
12/16 – Had won a UK chase race over at least 3m
11/16 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or more
11/16 – Unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won at least 3 times over fences in the UK
7/16 – Returned 10/3 or shorter in the betting
7/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Aged 8 years-old
4/16 – Ran at either Cheltenham (2) or Newbury (2) last time out
4/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
3/16 – Trained by Nicky Richards
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
7 of the last 10 winners were aged 8 or older
Takinrisks (20/1) won the race in 2019
Lake View Lad (5/1) won the race in 2018
Beware The Bear (11/4 fav) won the race in 2017
Otago Trial won the race in 2016
Note: The 2002, 2003, & 2004 runnings were at Chepstow

 

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Sat TV Trends: 18th July 2020

This Saturday we’ve another busy day of LIVE ITV Racing with the cameras heading to York and Newbury to take in seven races across the two venues.

At York, the John Smith’s Cup (2:30) is the feature contest – a race that 16 of the last 18 winners were aged 5 or younger.

Then at Newbury, the Group Three Hackwood Stakes (4.00) tops the bill.

Like all big race days, here at Geegeez.co.uk we've got the LIVE races covered with key trends and stats – use these to whittle down the runners and find the best profile of past winners.

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York Horse Racing Trends

 

1:55 - John Smith's Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (4yo+) 1m6f ITV4

 

14/14 – Had between 1 and 3 previous runs that season
13/14 – Won from stall 10 or lower
12/14 – Aged 5 or younger
11/14 – Didn’t win their previous race
10/14 – Placed favourites
7/14 – Aged 4 years-old
7/14 – Had run at York before
5/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/14 – Horses from stall 2 that finished second
3/14 – Winning favourites
Red Verdon (20/1) won the race in 2019

 

2:30 - John Smith's Cup Handicap (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 (3yo+) 1m2½f ITV4

 

17/18 – Returned 20/1 or shorter in the betting
16/18 – Aged 5 or younger
16/18 – Had won over 1m1f or further before
14/18 – Had between 3-5 previous runs already that season
13/18 – Came from stall 9 or higher
12/18 – Returned 14/1 or shorter in the betting
11/18 – Carried 9-3 or less
11/18 – Top 4 finish in their previous race
10/18 – Aged 4 years-old
10/18 – Officially rated between 99-105
9/18 – Had run at York before
6/18 – Ran at Royal Ascot last time out
3/18 – Won by trainer Richard Fahey
2/18 – Trained by William Haggas
2/18 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
The average winning SP in the last 18 years is 11/1

 

3:05 - John Smith's City Walls Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 5f ITV4

9/9 – Won over 5f before
9/9 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
9/9 – Rated between 101 and 111
8/9 – Placed favourites
6/9 – Unplaced last time out
6/9 – Had only won at Handicap class before
6/9 – Aged between 5-7 years-old
5/9 – Won by a neck or less
6/9 – Won at York before
3/9 – Ran at Ascot last time out
Copper Knight won the race in 2019

 

3:40 - William Hill Extra Places Every Day Handicap Cl3 (3yo+ 0-93) 1m4f ITV4

9/10 – Won over 1m2f or further
8/10 - Drawn in stalls 1-9 (inc)
8/10 – Won between 1-3 times
8/10 – Ran in the last 4 weeks
8/10 – Aged 5 or younger
7/10 – Had run at York before
6/10 – Placed favourites
6/10 – Rated between 93-98 (inc)
4/10 – Won last time out
4/10 – Won from stalls 8,9 or 10
3/10 – Ran at York last time out
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Trained by Tim Easterby
2/10 – Trained by Saeed Bi Suroor
2/10 – Ridden by Danny Tudhope

 

Newbury Horse Racing Trends

 

2.15 bet365 Rose Bowl Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (2yo) 6f ITV4

 

10/10 – Foaled in Feb, Mar or April
10/10 – Had run in the last 4 weeks
10/10 – Won over 6f before
9/10 – Drawn in stall 4 or lower
8/10 – Won just once before
7/10 – Returned 7/2 or less
7/10 – Placed favourites
7/10 – Foaled in March or April
6/10 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/10 – Unplaced last time out
5/10 – Winning favourites
4/10 – Won last time out
2/10 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/10 – Ridden by Paul Hanagan

 

 

2:50 - British EBF/bet365 Premier Fillies' Handicap Cl2 (3yo+ 0-100) 1m ITV4

 

10/10 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
9/10 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
9/10 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/10 – Returned 8/1 or shorter
8/10 – Drawn in stall 3 or higher
8/10 – Rated between 83-92
8/10 – Didn’t win last time out
7/10 – Carried 9-5 or more in weight
7/10 – Had won over 1m before
7/10 – Won between 1-3 times
4/10 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/10 – Trained by Mark Johnston
1/10  - Winning favourite

 

 

3:25 - bet365 Aphrodite Fillies' Stakes (Listed Race) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m4f ITV4

 

15/16 – Won over at least 1m2f or further before
14/16 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
14/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/16 – Placed favourites
12/16 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/16 – Won between 1-2 times before
6/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
5/16 - Winning favourite
5/16 – Ran at Haydock last time out
5/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Trained by John Gosden

Note: Normally run at Newmarket

 

 

4:00 - bet365 Hackwood Stakes (Group 3) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV4

 

15/16 – Won over 6f before
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
12/16 – Priced 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/16 – Had won 4 or more times before
10/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/16 – Placed favourites
7/16 – Had won a Group race before
6/16 – Ran at Ascot last time out
6/16 – Winning favourites
6/16 – Won last time out
3/16 – Winners from stall 8
2/16 – Trained by Hughie Morrison
2/16 – Trained by William Haggas
2/16 – Trained by Charles Hills (2 of last 5)
2/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
2/15 – Winners from stall 1
8 of the last 12 winners returned 3/1 or shorter in the betting