Tag Archive for: Nicky Richards

Famous Bridge in Scottish National frame

Nicky Richards’ Famous Bridge is preparing for a Scottish Grand National bid after his fourth-placed effort in the Ultima Handicap Chase at Cheltenham.

The eight-year-old runs in the silks of the late Trevor Hemmings and has developed into the classic chasing type associated with those colours.

After taking a good handicap chase at Haydock in November, the gelding returned to the same track to win the Tommy Whittle the following month.

He was pulled up in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster and then parted ways with Sean Quinlan when going well in the Grand National Trial at Haydock last month, but put both runs behind him when lining up at Cheltenham.

A 25-1 chance for the three-mile-one-furlong Ultima, Famous Bridge came home fourth of 21 runners to set up a possible Scottish Grand National run to round off his campaign.

Famous Bridge earlier in the season at Haydock
Famous Bridge earlier in the season at Haydock (Nigel French/PA)

“He seems fine, we’ll just see how he is for the next week or 10 days or so, if he’s all right and the ground’s all right, we’ll go for the Scottish National,” said Richards.

“He ran a decent race in the Ultima, he’s a very tough and consistent horse, we were pleased with him.

“He’s had a busy season running in competitive races, so he’ll go up there to Scotland and that’ll be his last run this time.

“He’s had a grand year, it’s a shame he unseated at Haydock but there you go, he’ll make up for that next year and we’ll train him with the National in mind.”



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Famous Bridge out to bounce back in National Trial

Famous Bridge could open the door to a shot at the Randox Grand National when he returns to Haydock for the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial Handicap Chase on Saturday.

Nicky Richards’ eight-year-old has built up a real love affair with the Lancashire venue this term and followed up a win at the course in November by claiming the Tommy Whittle a month later.

Famous Bridge forms one half of a strong hand for the famous Hemmings Racing silks alongside Jonjo O’Neill’s Welsh Grand National runner-up Iron Bridge and Richards feels conditions are perfect for his charge to return to his best having faltered at Doncaster last month.

“He acts around the place really well and seems in grand fettle,” said Richards.

“It will be deep old heavy ground and hard work for everybody, but we’re looking forward to it. He’s very well and I think he will run a big race.”

Famous Bridge was pulled-up in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster, but his handler lays the blame on his poor start at Town Moor, and said: “If you were watching the race, it was at the start where the problems happened.

“He was coming in lovely the first time but the starter wouldn’t let them go and when they turned round Sean (Quinlan, jockey) just didn’t get the rub of the green at the start at all.

Nicky Richards, who is confident Famous Bridge can bounce back on Saturday
Nicky Richards, who is confident Famous Bridge can bounce back on Saturday (Tim Goode/PA)

“It’s the same old story in those big handicaps, they can be won or lost at the start really and it was lost at the start with him. Sean wisely pulled him up after a mile and a half and he was clearly never going to get into it – the winner made all.”

Famous Bridge does hold a Grand National entry, but currently rated 139, connections feel Famous Bridge will need to win on Saturday to stand any chance of sneaking into the National field at Aintree now that the safety limit has been reduced to 34 runners.

Richards added: “I think it will depend on what happens Saturday and what will the bottom weight be to get in the National?

“We thought 145 or 146 might sneak him in and we know what he will have to do. Let’s hope he does it.”

James Best celebrates aboard My Silver Lining
James Best celebrates aboard My Silver Lining (Adam Morgan/PA)

Disputing favouritism with the Hemmings duo is Emma Lavelle’s Classic Chase heroine My Silver Lining, who appears to have all the attributes to make another bold bid in a marathon event.

However, the one unknown the Warwick scorer will have to prove is her ability on really testing ground with Haydock sure to pose a stern stamina examination.

Lavelle said: “Ground-wise, is heavy ground what she wants? I don’t know, she has won on it but she’s pretty versatile with regards to everything really.

“She was so game at Warwick and she’s gone up 5lb. She jumps brilliantly and when these staying chasers can get in a rhythm it counts for a lot.

“She’s very straightforward, at home and in her races, and that helps. You don’t want to use or waste energy when you don’t need to.

“She’s in such good order we just decided to let her take her chance as there aren’t going to be that many runners, there’s a lot of positives.”

Anthony Honeyball’s Credo has made the podium at Haydock twice this term before finishing a respectable fourth behind My Silver Lining in the Classic Chase, while Sam Thomas’ Iwilldoit has been a model of consistency once more this term and another sure to be up for this particular challenge on the forecast going.

Venetia Williams has won this three times in the last 10 years, including 12 months ago with Quick Wave, and she saddles both Fontaine Collonges and Becher Chase hero Chambard, with Dan Skelton’s Snipe arriving in Merseyside an improving chaser.

Gavin Cromwell has enjoyed some successful raids to the UK this season
Gavin Cromwell has enjoyed some successful raids to the UK this season (David Davies/PA)

Meanwhile, Gavin Cromwell will attempt to become the first Irish winner of this in almost 30 years as he saddles Yeah Man.

The Pat Fahy-trained Nuaffe was the last raider to pick up this prize back in 1995, but Cromwell has been no stranger to success in the UK this term and Yeah Man went close to picking up a big pot at Ascot just prior to Christmas.

“I am not certain that the heavy ground is going to be completely to his liking, but the trip certainly won’t be a problem,” said Cromwell.

“He’s had a couple of good runs at Ascot without winning and deserves a win at this stage. When he fell at the last on his penultimate start, he was rattling home and it’s one of those ones where we’ll never know.

“He definitely stays really well. The early part of the race and staying in the race can be an issue with him but I don’t think it’s going to be an issue on heavy ground at Haydock.

“I have no experience of the fences at Haydock, but they should not be a problem.

“The Kim Muir at Cheltenham could be an option in the future, but it might come a bit too soon after Saturday. The Irish National could also be an option, but we’ll see what happens on Saturday first.”



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Grand National Trial next up for Famous Bridge

Nicky Richards’ Famous Bridge will head next to the Virgin Bet Grand National Trial at Haydock after a luckless run in the Great Yorkshire Chase at Doncaster.

The eight-year-old was well fancied for the Town Moor contest and sent off as the 13-2 joint-favourite under rider Sean Quinlan, with Paul Nicholls’ Kandoo Kid sharing the same starting price.

Famous Bridge’s popularity in the market can be attributed to his fine start to the season, with the gelding finishing a close fourth at Ayr and then winning two competitive Haydock chases, including the Tommy Whittle.

However, the field of 18 did not get away cleanly at Doncaster and there was a false start initially, meaning the horse lost his position and was left at the rear of the pack when they did begin to race.

He never really progressed from that spot and, as the race got away from him behind the successful front-running ride given to Annual Invictus, Quinlan made the call to pull up Famous Bridge and save him for another day.

Famous Bridge winning at Haydock earlier in the season
Famous Bridge (left) winning at Haydock earlier in the season (Nigel French/PA)

Richards reports the horse to be none the worse for the run and hopes to have a little more luck in the Grand National Trial at Haydock in just over two weeks’ time.

“He’s fine, he’s had a little steady canter this morning and he seems well,” said Richards.

“The race was won and lost at the start, they were all coming in grand and if he’d been able to get away first time, he’d have been in the perfect position.

“It ruined it for him, the winner bobbed out and made every yard but as soon as you’re out of it in a race like that, it’s over.

“Sean made a very sensible decision, he felt there was no point going on with him. If he’d have gone the whole trip, he probably would have finished in the same place.

“Hopefully, we’ll get him freshened up and we’ll go for the Grand National Trial at Haydock.

“He seems fine, he only went a mile and a half and Sean did the sensible thing.

“Hopefully, we’ll get him nice and fresh and well and he’ll be grand.”



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Famous Bridge given Great Yorkshire Chase as an option

Ground conditions at Doncaster are likely to dictate whether Famous Bridge is rerouted to Saturday’s Great Yorkshire Chase after the weather scuppered his planned return to Haydock last weekend.

The eight-year-old, who runs in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings, has won his last two starts over fences at the latter venue, most recently landing the Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase pre-Christmas.

He was due to bid for a hat-trick on Merseyside in Saturday’s Peter Marsh Chase, but the abandonment of Haydock’s card has forced trainer Nicky Richards back to the drawing board.

When asked whether it was the plan to run Famous Bridge in the Great Yorkshire Chase, the Greystoke handler said: “It is and it isn’t. Mick (Meagher, racing manager) said to put him in, so we confirmed him, but we’ll just be keeping an eye on the ground. If it’s windy and dry all week and it’s edging towards good ground, I’m not quite sure what we’ll be thinking.

“He’s in grand form and it’s a shame Saturday was off (at Haydock). I don’t know why they couldn’t reschedule for Sunday, but I suppose in the circumstances that wouldn’t have been very pleasant either.

“A bit of good to soft ground wouldn’t bother him. I wouldn’t like to pigeon-hole him and say he’s just a Haydock horse or anything like that. He’s won two around Wetherby, he’s won at Kelso and Ayr – this horse would go around anywhere.

“He’s just a proper National Hunt horse, a fairly big boy and a strong horse, so we’ll just keep an eye on the weather and the ground and see where we are later in the week.”

Richards – whose yard was feeling the effects of Storm Isha on Monday, being without power for large parts of the day – has also confirmed Universal Folly, who has won three times and finished second on four occasions from only eight chase starts, and the trainer feels a sound surface may bring him into the equation off a light weight.

He added: “His owner is away on holiday, he’s in Barbados, I think, and I think I woke him up this morning when I gave him a call and asked him what he thought about entering for Doncaster.

“There is also the Edinburgh Grand National at Musselburgh for him and if it’s softer ground at Doncaster, the Musselburgh race might not be as strong, so we’ll just see what the weather does.

“If it’s a windy, dry week, I know it will take a lot of winning the Great Yorkshire, but it might take a bit less winning if it’s on good ground as a lot of other trainers might be thinking like we’re thinking with Famous Bridge.

“We’ll just see how the week pans out, but he’s in grand form as well and is ready to run somewhere.”

The Richards pair are among 27 horses still in the mix for the £100,000 contest, with the weights headed by Jamie Snowden’s Ga Law, who looked the likely winner when falling at the final fence 12 months ago.

Snowden could also saddle Git Maker, while ante-post favourite Victtorino is set to represent Ventia Williams following back-to-back wins at Ascot.

Other hopefuls include Anthony Honeyball’s Forward Plan and the Nicky Henderson-trained Mister Coffey, who finished first and second over the course and distance last month, and the improving Surrey Quest from Toby Lawes’ stable.

The only remaining Irish contender is the Emmet Mullins-trained Sweet Will.



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Haydock and Doncaster under consideration for rising star Famous Bridge

There will be no Grand National bid for Famous Bridge in 2024, but the improving stayer will be set some stern tests as he attempts to continue his rise up the chasing ranks.

Trained by Nicky Richards, the eight-year-old is becoming a real force over staying trips and made it back-to-back Haydock victories when landing the Tommy Whittle Chase just before Christmas.

His thirst for a stamina test and sure-footed jumping makes him the ideal candidate for the Grand National and sporting the colours of the Hemmings Family, the Aintree showpiece will always be high up on the agenda.

However, Richards is keen to keep building Famous Bridge’s chasing experience in the second half of the current campaign where he will seek to add to his burgeoning CV.

“He’s going along grand and he looks like he stays well, he’s a good, tough lad,” said Richards.

“I think myself and Mick (Meagher, racing manager to Hemmings Racing) thought it was probably just a year too soon (for the National).

“It was just his seventh run over fences in the Tommy Whittle and he is a lovely horse going forward. If he gets another two or three nice runs this year, hopefully we will be able to work towards the National next year.”

Options for Famous Bridge’s next outing include a return to Merseyside in search of a Haydock hat-trick in the Sky Bet Peter Marsh Chase on January 20 or wait an extra week for Doncaster’s Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase.

Famous Bridge (centre) in action at Haydock
Famous Bridge (centre) in action at Haydock (Nigel French/PA)

“There’s the Peter Marsh back at Haydock but I don’t know if that might come a week too soon for him,” added Richards.

“I haven’t done a great deal with him yet but he’s had canters and everything and everything seems grand with him so we will see.

“Then there is the Great Yorkshire the week after and we probably need a bit of rain there.

“There are nice races about for him and he’s a grand horse going forward. We will be racing him and he will be running in good races.”

However, it is unlikely the Cheltenham Festival will enter the equation with a further Town Moor contest, as well as Aintree and Ayr taking precedence when the season enters spring.

Nicky Richards is confident Haydock scorer Famous Bridge can keep progressing through the staying ranks
Nicky Richards is confident Haydock scorer Famous Bridge can keep progressing through the staying ranks (Tim Goode/PA)

“Mr Hemmings loved Aintree and he loved the Ayr festival as well, so that will all be discussed as we go along, one race at a time,” continued Richards.

“You also have the Grimthorpe (at Doncaster) as well which is quite a valuable race now, so there are plenty of different options.

“That one (Grimthorpe) is early March, so it would probably be too quick to then go to Cheltenham.

“But we will be keeping our options open and he’s in grand old fettle and we are very happy with the way he is going along.”



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Famous Bridge digs deep for Tommy Whittle win

Famous Bridge continued his ascent up the staying ladder with a determined victory in an attritional renewal of the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase at Haydock.

Although a dual winner over hurdles, the Nicky Richards-trained seven-year-old always looked the type to do better over the larger obstacles and he won three of his first six chase starts.

Fresh from a course-and-distance success four weeks ago, Famous Bridge – sporting the famous silks of the late Trevor Hemmings – was the 5-2 favourite to add to his tally and stuck to his guns admirably in the testing conditions to emerge victorious.

Burrows Diamond had built up a clear lead by the time he rounded the bend into the the home straight and soon had the majority of his chasing rivals in trouble, with only Famous Bridge and Credo able to stay in the fight from the third-last fence.

Burrows Diamond did not bend in front, but Famous Bridge slowly ate into his advantage and he was a length to the good at the line.

Richards said: “He crept away and did it grand. Sean (Quinlan, jockey) thought he was going to win from the second-last. I don’t know if we would want to run him on that ground too many times as it is fairly gruelling.

“He is a youngish horse for a chasing horse and I think he is on the up, but you don’t want to keep putting the gun to their head on that ground.

Nicky Richards was delighted with the victory of Famous Bridge
Nicky Richards was delighted with the victory of Famous Bridge (Tim Goode/PA)

“He is a young horse, and he has not had a lot of mileage. He is improving and I want to keep seeing improvement as the handicapper is going to make sure we need to improve.

“We know he is going to come (through near the end) as he likes to get in a battle and he is the type of horse that is hard to beat when he gets in one.”

Famous Bridge was given a quote of 25-1 for the Grand National by William Hill, but the Greystoke handler has other targets on his mind away from Aintree.

He added: “He won’t go up enough in the weights for the National this time. We’ve got thoughts. I don’t think we want to go extreme distances on gruelling ground yet.

“He has won two nice races now and something like the Grimthorpe we could go for. Mick (Meagher, racing manager to Hemmings Racing) would love to come back here for the Peter Marsh, but I don’t know if he wants to be on that ground all the time.”



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Famous Bridge aiming to scale Tommy Whittle heights

Famous Bridge will return to Haydock as he attempts to continue his rise up the staying ranks in the Betfred Tommy Whittle Handicap Chase on Saturday.

Nicky Richards’ seven-year-old is beginning to get his act together over the larger obstacles and has appeared extremely progressive in winning three of his last four starts.

He thrived for a stamina test when accounting for Anthony Honeyball’s reopposing Credo late last month and seen as a Grand National prospect of the future, the gelding – who runs in the colours of the late Trevor Hemmings – will now attempt to add this prestigious staying prize to his roll of honour off a career-high rating.

“I’m looking forward to it, he seems well and hopefully we are going in the right direction,” said Richards.

“We’ll enjoy the journey with him and he went round Haydock as smooth as silk last time. He was good and hopefully he has another smooth run round and runs a good race.

“He’s a typical Mr Hemmings horse and hopefully he carries on improving.”

Only a length separated Famous Bridge and Credo last time and Honeyball is keen for another crack at the likely favourite on revised terms.

“She’s a lovely, plucky mare who ran well at Haydock the last time, so it made sense really to go back there again,” said Honeyball.

“I’m not quite sure what the ground will end up but she has quite a lot of stamina, so if the ground went softer that might suit her.

“I’m looking forward to running her, she’s a few pounds better off with the horse who beat her last time, so she should run very well.”

Venetia Williams’ Eleanor Bob was fourth on that occasion and is another set for a return to Merseyside with the stable in good form, while Topham hero Bill Baxter will attempt to boost his National credentials representing Warren Greatrex.

Enqarde returned to winning ways at Warwick last time
Enqarde returned to winning ways at Warwick last time (Alan Crowhurst/PA)

Meanwhile, Enqarde will bid to win the contest for the second time following a pleasing return to form at Warwick.

Dr Richard Newland and Jamie Insole’s nine-year-old snapped a near two-year wait for a win there and this race has been top priority on the gelding’s wish list since.

“He’s in great form and has been laid out for the race,” said Newland.

“He won the race a couple of years ago and seemed to come back to form at Warwick, so we’ve just been patient with him waiting for this race.

“We’re hoping he will run a big race and it is obviously a competitive race with others with great credentials, but my nervousness would be a little bit the ground. The ground suits him, but he is a horse who has had wind surgeries and that could be the biggest challenge, will his wind stand up to the heavy ground?

“I don’t think he has actually officially won on heavy. He’s won on soft quite a few times, but with that said, it must have been close to heavy at Warwick. In theory it should suit him but could be his Achilles heel as well.”

Stuart Coltherd’s Cooper’s Cross was seen to good effect last season and won Doncaster’s Sky Bet Chase before finishing second in the Scottish Grand National, with Burrows Diamond (Sue Smith), Dr Kananga (Ben Clarke) and Conkwell Legend (Neil Mulholland) completing the field.



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Florida Dreams camp keen for Aintree to avoid rain

Nicky Richards is on weather watch with Florida Dreams ahead of a possible tilt at top honours in Aintree’s William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle on Boxing Day.

If given the go-ahead for the newly-created festive Grade One, it would mean a return to the scene of the five-year-old’s finest hour, and the place where he kept on gamely to land the Grade Two bumper that concludes the Grand National Festival in the spring.

Since then, the Jimmy Fyffe-owned gelding tasted defeat on his hurdling bow at Ayr, but the Greystoke handler had his charge firing on all cylinders when returning to the Scottish venue to open his account over obstacles earlier this month.

On that occasion, he reeled in David Pipe’s Phantomofthepoints to score by a neck and Richards believes that could turn out to be a smart piece of form.

He said: “The plan is to go to Aintree and I hope they have a dry week. If it does get too soft, he probably won’t go, but we’ll see how the week goes with the weather and take it from there.

“Hopefully, it (the bumper) won’t be the last Graded race he wins and the journey is only beginning with him – I’m quite sure he is going to make into a very good horse.

“He got the job done (at Ayr) and I would say there is no doubt David Pipe’s horse is probably not a bad horse as well. We will find out in the future, but my lad is a horse with a lot of ability and I hope he goes on to prove it.”

Florida Dreams scoring at Aintree
Florida Dreams scoring at Aintree (David Davies for the Jockey Club/PA)

The Aintree race, which was formerly run as the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown, has attracted a strong cast of 14 entries, with Gordon Elliott’s Royal Bond scorer Farren Glory a notable name that could be given a raiding mission.

Only a nose separated Nicky Henderson’s Jango Baie and Ben Pauling’s Tellherthename when they clashed at Ascot and, with the latter impressing subsequently, connections will be eyeing turning the tables in this Grade One event.

Fergal O’Brien’s Kamsinas will look to supplement his Haydock Grade Two victory with a perfect Christmas present up at the highest level, while Chepstow scorer Jackpot D’Athou could represent champion trainer Paul Nicholls.

Kamsinas landed Grade Two glory at Haydock
Kamsinas landed Grade Two glory at Haydock (Nigel French/PA)

Favour And Fortune has appeared a classy operator and is now deemed ready for the next level by Alan King, with Paul Robson keen to gauge Cannock Park’s true ability after a taking success at Cheltenham in November.

A continental feel to the race is added by French challenger July Flower, with the four-year-old set to represent trainer Mickael Seror.



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Coko Beach dominates Becher landscape

Coko Beach heads 17 confirmations for the BoyleSports Becher Handicap Chase at Aintree on Saturday.

Gordon Elliott’s grey has been a fine servant to owners Gigginstown House Stud, winning a Thyestes Chase, the Grade Two Ten Up Novice Chase, Punchestown’s Grand National Trial and the Troytown Chase on his most recent appearance at Navan last month.

The eight-year-old was pulled up in the Grand National last season, having finished eighth in 2022, and could bid to make it third time lucky over the famous fences on Merseyside this weekend.

If Coko Beach does line up, his lofty rating of 162 means he will have to concede upwards of 15lb to each of his rivals.

Leading contenders include last year’s winner Ashtown Lad (Dan Skelton) and last year’s third Percussion (Laura Morgan), who again showed his liking for the track when runner-up in the Grand Sefton four weeks ago.

Nicky Henderson has left in Fantastic Lady and Mister Coffey, while Nicky Richards views the race as an ideal target for Houston Texas, who was last seen winning the Cumberland Handicap Chase at Carlisle for the second year in succession.

However, the Greystoke handler admits the possible presence of Coko Beach gives him a headache as it means Houston Texas is currently 8lb out of the handicap.

Richards, who won the 1999 Becher Chase with Feels Like Gold, said: “It will all depend what Gordon’s going to do as if his horse runs it will just spoil it for me – I’m not running from that far out of the handicap. It wouldn’t the brightest thing in the world to do, would it?

“I’d be very hopeful that he’d enjoy it round there. He’s a good, bold jumping lad and very sensible with it as well.

“I just thought it would be ideal for him and was hoping I would sneak in at the bottom and have a right chance, but you don’t want to be that far out of the handicap – you’ve got to be realistic with it.”

Fergal O’Brien’s Highland Hunter, Stuart Crawford’s Now Where Or When and the Venetia Williams-trained Chambard also feature among the acceptors.



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Sky Bet Chase Trends

Staged at Doncaster racecourse, the Sky Bet Chase (formerly known as the Great Yorkshire Chase) is a Listed Handicap run over 3m. The race can often throw up some Grand National clues, although no winner in the last 16 runnings has gone onto win the Aintree marathon.

In recent years, the Alan King, Paul Nicholls and Pipe stables have dominated the race with two wins a-piece since 2003, while in the last 16 runnings we’ve seen just two winning favourites – the 2021 Sky Bet Chase was won by the Nicky Richards-trained 12 year-old Takingrisks at a massive 40/1.

Here at GeeGeez we look back at recent winners (note, the 2010 and 2011 runnings were abandoned) and gives you the key stats to take into the 2022 renewal – this year being run on Saturday 29th January.

Recent Sky Bet Chase Winners

2021 - TAKINGRISKS (40/1)
2020 – OK CORRAL (9/1)
2019 – GO CONQUER (8/1)
2018 – WAKANDA (8/1)
2017 – ZIGA BOY (10/1)
2016 – ZIGA BOY (8/1)
2015 – IF IN DOUBT (4/1 fav)
2014 – RAINBOW HUNTER (25/1)
2013 – Meeting Abandoned
2012 – CALGARY BAY (12/1)
2011 - Meeting Abandoned
2010 - Meeting Abandoned
2009 – BIG FELLA THANKS (9/2)
2008 – AN ACCORDION (11/2 fav)
2007 – SIMON (7/1)
2006 – A GLASS IN THYNE (16/1)
2005 – COLOURFUL LIFE (9/1)
2004 – TYNEANDTHYNEAGAIN (7/1)
2003 – BARRYSCOURT LAD (9/2)

 

Sky Bet Chase Betting Trends

15/16 – Had won between 0-3 times over fences before
13/16 – Carried 11-2 or less
13/16 – Officially rated 130 or higher
13/16 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/16 – Aged 9 or younger
11/16 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
10/16 – Unplaced favourites
10/16 – Irish bred
9/16 – Carried 10-12 or less
9/16 – Had raced within the last 4 weeks
9/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
8/16 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
5/16 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/16 – Won last time out
2/16 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/16 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 16 runnings is 11/1

Note: The 2007 running was staged at Southwell

Other Stats:
4 of the last 16 winners of this race went onto contest the William Hill Trophy (now JLT Chase) at the Cheltenham Festival that season (1 winner)
6 of the last 16 winners went onto run in that season’s Grand National (no winners, all unplaced)

 

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Trainer Profiles: Nicky Richards

Trainer Profiles: Nicky Richards

It’s time for another edition of trainer profiles and, for this one, I’ve opted to run the rule over the Cumbrian operation headed by Nicky Richards.

There are two key motivating factors in selecting Richards for a bit of the data treatment. Firstly, it’s not a yard I have especially followed, and I enjoy the educational journey that penning these articles delivers: the discovery of new insight and information is the fun element of compiling these pieces. Secondly, and far more importantly, it’s a results thing. The stable has generally strong and consistent performance over time, which is a solid foundation for deeper analysis. Let’s begin.

Here is an unedited, unfiltered view of all the yards runners from 2011 at SP in UK National Hunt racing (up to and including 5th Feb 2021)

 

That’s a very impressive set of numbers. I’d speculate that, based on these data, if you were farming the bookies’ offers of best odds guaranteed, backing all runners from the stable you’d be at worst broadly breaking even. Not a bad starter for ten.

Nicky Richards: Performance vs. the Market

As is now tradition (if three events can be counted as tradition) we will commence with a market check to obtain a general feel for the yard, which I’ve found to be a reliable starting point in the construction of a trainer profile.

The table below contains all of Richards’ runners for just over the last ten years, grouped by starting price.

 

 

As might be expected, there is a healthy look to the picture, with the probable exception of those sent off at 22/1 or longer. Three winners from 228 runners at these prices is cause enough to avoid almost at all costs. That said, one does need to be a little careful in ranges where a single winner can significantly impact the overall view. Even so, not for me in data terms, given that just one of the 81 horses priced 50/1 or bigger made the frame.

Meanwhile, at the sharper end, there is a strong impression that broad value exists in the 5/2 to 20/1 price range. This implies a slight but consistent underestimation of the stable within the market where perhaps the form claims are not overtly obvious. That’s far from an endorsement or recommendation to get involved indiscriminately, however.

Here are the data represented graphically, displayed by A/E which assists in painting a picture of where general value may exist.

 

After further rummaging, there wasn’t a lot more to get excited about within this area (that I found, anyway). Therefore, the message is a broad one, in that there is value in following Richards when paying particular attention to those priced in the 5/2 to 20/1 ranges.

Despite this, for the rest of this article I’m going to only consider runners with an SP of 14/1 or shorter, unless explicitly stated otherwise. Yes, the graph and data does show potential value up to 20/1. However, between 16s and 20s, a strike rate of 5.9% (13/222) isn’t enough to insure me against the dreaded losing runs in spite of the potential long-term profit. It’s a personal choice and you have to be geared up for feast and famine at that end of the market: I’m not especially.

Nicky Richards: Seasonal Performance

As is often the case with National Hunt yards, performance can vary throughout the year and it’s something which can be seen from Team Richards, as the table below illustrates.

 

In relative terms at least, the numbers put up during the summer jumps season are a pale shadow of the rest of the year. They’re not terrible, far from it, but it would appear that the summer season is not a major focus for the yard. The below graph shows the same data through the prism of A/E and clearly illustrates the dip.

 

Catching the yard from December to March appears to be optimal in rough terms.

Digging further, I’ve mentioned before that seasonal performance and underfoot conditions often go hand in hand. Given that the A/E numbers have a slight dip during the summer it could generally be expected that the overall performance is less positive on firmer ground, a condition more prevalent at that time of year.

 

Exactly as expected, the insight on Good and Good to Firm are strikingly below those for going on the softer side with clear variance across strike rates, P&L, A/E and even place percentages.

It’s of specific interest to try and establish whether softer ground runners in summer do comparatively well against those running on ground more typical of the warmer months, and vice versa (firmer ground performance in winter).

 

The above line graph splits the data by underfoot conditions and month. By way of explanation the dotted grey line represents the overall data for the yard in terms of A/E (same data as the graph at the start of this section). The blue line shows A/E performance for stable runners on Good to Soft, Soft and Heavy ground conditions. The sunny orange line contains A/E info for Good and Good to Firm runs.

It reveals that, generally, the yard out turns better numbers when the going is on the softer side irrespective of the time of year. It also at least hints towards an assertion that there might well be some sort of edge backing Richards runners during the summer jumps season when the going is more winter like (June still moderate). In fact, A/E performance peaks in July on the wetter going across all data sets. Granted, this only relates to 12 runs, but it does demonstrate potential value can still be attained in summer, despite the higher-level data pointing in another direction.

Of course, there is no categorical rule; none of this info should mean back or laying blindly, life is always more nuanced than that. However, by gaining an understanding of these elements a general sharpening of the punting process can be attained.

For example, to convince me to part with my cash on a Richards summer jumper on Good or Good to Firm ground I’d want the horse to tick virtually every other box available and show significant superiority over the rest of the field. In such cases, there would very likely be no juice in the price as the horse’s chance would be so obvious.

On softer ground I’d show more leniency with regards to the form in the book. Naturally, we will still be wrong a lot more often than right, but by using data to find value we can ensure our winners pay for a lot more losers!

 

Nicky Richards: Seasonal performance by race type

Another notable aspect where the seasonal performance can be seen is with National Hunt Flat races. The first port of call is to evaluate accomplishments by the different types of National Hunt discipline to ascertain how data in bumpers holds up against the other race types.

 

It’s clear, and very much like Fergal O’Brien from my last article, that Richards is a trainer to follow when no obstacles are in play. It may be enough to leave it there, however, the seasonal factor is again well demonstrated focusing on this race category alone.

 

The above table shows the rhythm of the stable regarding its bumper runners. From May to September there are two wins from 23 runs. However, performance through the winter is exemplary. If this table is representative of the future, then March will be a good time to get on board with a strike rate of very nearly a third since January 2011.

 

 

Nicky Richards: Performance by Racecourse

There is little doubt that Richards is a leading light of the northern racing circuit. A perusal of his runners by UK region confirms that beyond all reasonable doubt.

 

This yard, based in Cumbria, thirty miles from the Scottish border, has saddled just under half of its UK runners in Scotland. Most of the other stable competitors have been heavily concentrated in and around Northern England. In very general terms, the rare forays to the Southern parishes are underwhelming.

The dichotomy is stark: this is a yard that is seemingly content to harvest on the northern circuit consistently, leaving the South to others.

Analysing individual track performance, the below table demonstrates all course data for those where the stable has saddled 50 or more runners over the duration of the analysis.

 

The focus on Scotland can be clearly seen with Ayr, Kelso and Perth filling the top three berths and Musselburgh not too far behind. However, it’s hopefully obvious regarding the tracks that are front and centre in terms of punting interest. The output at Carlisle and Hexham sticks out like the proverbial sore thumb. Consequently, they’re highlighted by the unsubtle dark blue bandings (Sedgefield and Kelso have claims, too).

Whilst Carlisle has an edge over Hexham in terms of profitability, both are worth noting with percentage strike rates well in the 30s. For the record it’s a 64% ROI at SP combined across this pair of wagering diamonds.

I spent a while trying to ascertain a better edge to the track info: race types, distances, venue of last run, all sorts of other info and, in truth, there wasn’t too much to be found to enhance the edge in question. That’s heartening, I guess, because the best, most sustainable, angles are also usually the simplest.

I did check those runners with SP’s at 16/1 or greater too, just in case there was a trick being missed at these tracks. Reassuringly, the numbers for the stable at these prices are 0/37 with only four placed horses, somewhat validating my semi-arbitrary 14/1 cut off point.

With an edge that is as route-one as this it may be expected that the market would have adapted, evolved, and essentially reduced or removed any punter advantage. To evaluate this, the graph below illustrates the cumulative profit and loss picture from the 2011 start date used in this article.

 

Basically, there is no sign of abatement, in fact it could be argued that performance is going from strength to strength with the twin track performance being as strong as ever over the past three years. The law of averages (and of Sod!) suggests it’s due a reversal at some point. However, as a bare minimum a Nicky Richards-trained horse at Carlisle or Hexham requires thorough analysis given that a third of them prevail. Until the market adapts, I’m going to keep a close eye on stable runners at these courses.

Nicky Richards: Stable jockeys

The below table shows the principal riders Richards has engaged from 2011 to date [excluding Brian Harding who took the bulk of the rides until his retirement in 2017]. Craig Nichol is also riding with much less frequency for the stable, too, over recent times (but is included).

 

If the primary focus is a quest for winners, then it’s no surprise whatsoever to see Brian Hughes lead the way. The strike rate on a Hughes ride is far superior (27%) to any other pilot deployed by the yard (Sean Quinlan, who has only taken 21 rides thus far, aside). However, deriving value from a champion jockey-steered runner is easier said than done in the long term as the ROI (0.9%) and A/E (0.95) allude. At first glance, at least, the value approach is to follow the mounts of Ryan Day. In fact, there would be worse ways to indiscriminately wager than backing the Richards/Day combo based on the intel above.

To prevail, or even tread water, in this game it’s essential to swim against the tide of the market on a consistent basis (if you’ll pardon my mixed and mangled metaphors). Listening to the many protagonists within racing media it’s quite easy to pick up on common assumptions or themes and it’s always fun trying to prove or disprove the comments through, you know, actual fact-checked analysis. It’s amazing how many urban myths and factoids are hurled around which have little statistical merit. One such oft-spouted view relates to jockey upgrades or downgrades from race to race and how much this may affect the chances of a particular horse.

By way of example, we have a young, talented jockey (Day) whose impact on his rides may be underestimated by the market. And we have an extremely high profile, leading champion jockey (Hughes) with all the associated focus. This inevitably results in his mounts usually being well found in market terms.

But what about jockey switches between the two on the same horse? We can see (albeit on a micro scale) that moving from Hughes to Day is not necessarily a downgrade. Day to Hughes is not necessarily is an upgrade either. In fact, the numbers suggest the converse.

 

Horses piloted last time out by Day that have switched to Hughes have produced just three victories from 23 outings. The converse switch is four from 13. Again, these are tiny samples so let’s not go overboard; but the point is to challenge assumptions about supposed rider upgrades. There are cases such as this everywhere, every day. In this example, from a value perspective, you shouldn’t be put off a horse piloted by Ryan Day, even if the champ was on top last time.

Nicky Richards: Headgear

Analysing the Richards stable in terms of headgear performance throws up some interesting stats. The table below shows the performance of the yard’s animals by whichever accoutrements are fitted to aid performance.

 

Yard runners dating back to 2011 have outperformed market expectations where some form of body kit has been added. Based on these numbers alone it appears to be reasonably clear cut that Richards and team are exemplar in understanding when to call on some of the aids available. Including the visored runners there are a total of 49 wins from 193 runs, an A/E of 1.29 and a 33% ROI just from backing all Richards runners with headgear at SP.

I did check to establish whether there was any pattern in how many times the yard had turned to a particular piece of headgear equipment for a given horse, expecting to potentially see horses with new (to them) attachments performing better to the tried and tested ones. There wasn’t too much in it, with all horses performing well irrespective of the freshness of the headgear solution to the animal. Again, it’s one for the checklist. A Richards runner with ‘go-faster stripes’ is one to shortlist if the price is keen enough at 14s or shorter.

Yet again, I’ve exceeded my intended word count so that’s it for another edition of Trainer Profiles. Hopefully, you’re armed with a few snippets around the top trainer Nicky Richards and have discovered something new along the way. I certainly have. The stable is right in the crosshairs now, and I’ll be tracking runners closely hereafter.



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