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Stat of the Day, 8th July 2020

Tuesday's pick was...

1.15 Pontefract : Music Therapist @ 5/1 BOG 9th at 9/4 (Prominent, ridden 2f out, looked held when slightly hampered approaching final furlong, soon weakened) Poor effort all told.

Wednesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Newbury :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG

...in a 12-runner, Class 5, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 1m on Good ground worth £3,493 to the winner...

Your first 30 days for just £1

Why?...

Today's racecard snippets are...

And to fill in some gaps, we've got a 4yr old maiden, whose best effort came last time out, when a runner-up here over course and distance 25 days ago. In his defence, he was coming back from a 163-day layoff and was a little unlucky to have bumped into an in-form favourite that day. I'd expect him to be fitter and sharper today after that outing.

He will be ridden by Richard Kingscote, who has a good (albeit off a small number of rides) record for trainer Ian Williams and he's clear top on the Geegeez Speed ratings.

Stat-wise, we'll look at this a couple of ways, starting with the trainer jockey combo. Four from seventeen in the last year is a good starting point, but digging back a little shows that it's not just a purple patch, as since the start of 2016, the combo have the following record together...

Those numbers aren't too far away from replicating the 12 month ones, so some consistency can be seen and from those 79 runners...

  • Males are 18/70 (25.7%) for 51.27pts (+73.3%)
  • Handicappers are 17/68 (25%) for 36.4pts (+53.5%)
  • Those competing for less than £8k are 15/59 (25.4%) for 37.13pts (+62.9%)
  • Those who raced 6-30 days earlier are 13/44 (29.6%) for 33.9pts (+77.1%)
  • Those running on the Flat are 10/41 (24.4%) for 36.9pts (+90%)
  • Those racing in 4yo+ contests are 10/38 (26.3%) for 24.86pts (+65.4%)
  • Those racing over 6f to 1m are 7/28 (25%) for 32.2pts (+115%)
  • and Class 5 runners are 5/20 (25%) for 18.96pts (+94.8%)

Puerto Banus is Ian Williams' only runner of the day today and whilst some horses prefer to travel with stablemates, I has done very well with "solo travellers". In fact since the start of 2017, when his only runner of the day was a Flat or A/W handicapper, he has the following record...

...including of relevance today...

  • 25/130 (19.2%) for 103.47pts (+79.6%) in races worth less than £8k
  • 25/122 (20.5%) for 102.9pts (+84.3%) at Class 4 to 6
  • 16/85 (18.8%) for 80.08pts (+94.2%) on the Flat
  • 15/64 (23.4%) for 125pts (+195.3%) at 21-60 days since last run
  • 14/74 (18.9%) for 72.42pts (+97.9%) with 3/4 yr olds
  • 9/14 (64.3%) for 41.12pts (+293.7%) with LTO runners-up
  • and 8/34 (23.5%) for 18.46pts (+54.3%) on Good ground...

...whilst 3/4 yr olds in Class 4-6 Flat handicaps worth less than £8k, 21 to 45 days after their last run are...

...and that includes five winners and one runner-up (a 20/1 shot beaten by a length over 1m!) from six runners in the last two years...

...all of which suggests...a 1pt win bet on Puerto Banus @ 11/4 BOG as was widely available at 8.15am Wednesday, but as always please check your BOG statusTo see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Newbury

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!

Stat of the Day, 23rd June 2020

Monday's pick was...

8.30 Windsor : Air Force Amy @ 13/2 BOG 2nd at 9/2 (Tracked leaders, effort and hung left from 2f out, ridden and went 2nd towards finish)

Tuesday's pick runs in the...

6.40 Chepstow :

Before I post the daily selection, just a quick reminder of how I operate the service. Currently, I'll identify and share the selection between 8.00am and 8.30am and I then add a more detailed write-up later within an hour or so of going "live".

Those happy to take the early price on trust can do so, whilst some might prefer to wait for my reasoning. As I fit the early service in around my family life, I can't give an exact timing on the posts, so I suggest you follow us on Twitter and/or Facebook for instant notifications of a published pick.

Who?

Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG

Your first 30 days for just £1

...in a 10-runner, Class 6, Flat handicap for 4yo+ over 7f on Good to Soft ground worth £2,782 to the winner... 

Why?...

As usual, we start with the details we already know which are easily viewed on the racecard...

Saddlecloth 7, Drawn 6 of 10, Won LTO, wears blinkers regularly (bl5+), has won at the course (C), has won at the distance (D) last raced 8 days ago, he's 6 yrs old and will be ridden by a jockey with a good record at this track (C1, C5), has an official rating (OR) of 57, which purely coincidentally is also his Geegeez Speed Rating. The SR of 57 is the second highest in this contest, so straight away there's a feeling we've found one with at least a chance.

So, let's look at some of the above in a little more detail...

He's drawn 6 of 10, which looks a good place to be in similar contests to today, as shown on the racecard draw tab (set to 9-11 actual runners)

He was a winner here last time out over 6f when ridden by Richard Kingscote for the first time, but has a couple of wins over today's trip. He's also...

  • 7 from 55 in handicaps
  • 7 from 54 for trainer Michael Mullineaux
  • 5 from 35 at Class 6 that is very profitable to follow (+43.84pts @ 125.3% ROI)
  • 5 from 16 at 4/1 and shorter
  • 7 from 23 after 3-10 days rest
  • 2 from 8 on Good to Soft ground

Aside from the above, it has also paid to follow the yard's runners quickly turned back out after a good run. More specifically...

and these 52 runners include of relevance today...

  • 9/44 (20.4%) for 54.97pts (+124.9%) for male runners
  • 8/36 (22.2%) for 59.47pts (+165.2%) during June to September
  • 6/29 (20.7%) for 33.28pts (+114.8%) on the Flat
  • 5/20 (25%) for 23.71pts (+118.6%) at Class 6
  • 5/13 (38.5%) for 16.01pts (+123.1%) at an SP odds range of 5/2 to 6/1
  • 3/11 (27.3%) for 27.75pts (+252.3%) with runners stepping up in trip by 1/1.5 furlongs
  • and 2 from 6 (33.3%) for 23.42pts (+390.3%) here at Chepstow...

...whilst Class 6 males on the Flat during June to September are 4 from 9 (44.4% SR) for 31.21pts (+346.8% ROI), including 3 from 5 at 5/2 to 6/1, 2 from 4 here at Chepstow and 1 from 2 stepping up in trip...

...pointing to...a 1pt win bet on Peachey Carnehan @ 10/3 BOG as was available from Bet365 & Unibet at 8.10am Tuesday with plenty of 3/1 elsewhere, but as always please check your BOG status. To see a small sample of odds offered on this race...

...click here for the betting on the 6.40 Chepstow

Don't forget, we offer a full interactive racecard service every day!

REMINDER: THERE IS NO STAT OF THE DAY ON SUNDAYS

Here is today's racecard

P.S. all P/L returns quoted in the stats above are to Betfair SP, as I NEVER bet to ISP and neither should you. I always use BOG bookies for SotD, wherever possible, but I use BFSP for the stats as it is the nearest approximation I can give, so I actually expect to beat the returns I use to support my picks. If that's unclear, please ask!