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Stat of the Day, 15th October 2012

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day

Stat of the Day, 15th October 2012

Mr Cracker was sent off the 6/1 3rd favourite in the end (non-runners in the race), but ran a clunker. He was up front but stopped to a walk some way out and it's scant consolation knowing that bigger wads of cash were lost than ours, as the horse was heavily backed in the morning.

Missunited, mentioned in dispatches, recorded a double silver for me personally when finishing second in the Irish version of the Cesarewitch, a day after Countrywide Flame had run up in the English version at Newmarket. Ho hum.

We move to more mundane stuff for Monday, though still a fair race for that day of the week, and we'll head for the cathedral city, and the...

5.00 Salisbury

This is a mile and three quarters handicap, Class 3, which will be run on very testing ground.

Today's Stat of the Day pick has a 100% record at the course, having won his only start here, over this trip on his penultimate start. In fact, he's had three runs over a mile and three quarters, and won all three of them, including a 'Junior' National Hunt Flat race.

His record on softer than good reads 1133116, which adds to my optimism that he can make the frame here. Who is 'he'?

Say hello to Stock Hill Fair, a horse trained by Brendan Powell. Powell has a brilliant Salisbury record himself, having trained five winners from just 22 runners at the track for a 58 unit profit.

Moreover, Powell is in blinding form at present, with five winners from 24 runners in the past fortnight. They were worth a profit of 54 units, so when they hit they pay nicely.

Pat Dobbs resumes riding responsibilities, having been atop when Stock Hill Fair made all here on that penultimate run, his only time riding the horse. Dobbs himself is showing a profit of 24.96 units at Salisbury in the last five years, making it his most profitable track in the country.

Stock Hill Fair does like to race prominently, and should only have Woolfall Treasure for company here, meaning he might get the race run to suit. The one reservation I have is that this is a step up in class, but that is factored into the price, and he'll surely love the light weight he's carrying here: it's the lowest he's ever carried!

So we've a horse with a hundred percent strike rate at the trip (3-3), and on the course (1-1); a trainer with excellent figures at the track and in fine form; and a jockey with his best figures at the track. The price on this one? 14/1 with bet365, and that's Best Odds Guaranteed, so we'll take it each way.

Click here for all the latest odds for the 5.00 Salisbury.

Sat TV Trends: 6th Oct 2012

It's Off To Ascot This Saturday....

Like every Saturday we've got all the LIVE C4 action covered from a stats angle - this week from Ascot, Newmarket and Redcar.... Read more

Well I Declare: 3rd October

Well, I Declare: 3rd October

Well, I Declare: 3rd October

We've racing from Kempton, Newcastle, Nottingham and Salisbury today and here's just a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the action planned for...

...WEDNESDAY 03/10:

Kempton:

General stats: Eight of Saeed Bin Suroor’s last nine runners at Kempton have been beaten but at a track where the trainer excels (32% strike rate), watch out for the trainer to ’bite back’ very soon.

7.40: Who says trainers are not creatures of habit?  Richard Hannon saddled three runners in the inaugural running of this Nursery event last year and the trainer follows suit this time around.  For the record, Richard’s horses finished 1st (3/1), 3rd (12/1) and 4th (20/1) twelve months ago.

8.10: All seven winners have carried a minimum weight of nine stones whilst two favourites have prevailed thus far.  Only three of the seven market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

8.40: Favourites come to the gig on a hat trick (the other two market leaders failed to secure toteplacepot positions) whilst Richard Hannon (Ninjago) has won two of the four renewals to date.

9.10: We still await the first favourite to finish in the fame behind winners sent off at 14/1-8/1-15/2.

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Newcastle:

General stats: William Haggas and Noel Quinlan each boast a 40% strike rate at Gosforth Park, albeit William’s record relates to ten winners during the last five years as opposed to Noel’s brace of gold medallists.

3.45 & 4.20 (two divisions): All four winners carried weights of 8-12 or more, whilst three of the four favourites have won at 5/1-4/1-3/1.

5.20: Four-year-olds have won seven of the last twelve renewals, whilst three favourites have prevailed via the last eight contests, statistics which has produced a level profit strike rate of 7.5 points during the period.

 

Nottingham:

General stats: Lucy Wadham is a rare visitor to Nottingham, though two of her four runners in recent times have prevailed.  Lucy’s strike rate with juveniles (23% during the last five years) is fair enough considering she has few two-year-olds in her care and newcomer Nullarbor Sky is Lucy’s representative on the card in the 4.30 event.

3.55 & 4.30 (two divisions): John Dunlop won both divisions of the 2010 event but was not represented last year.  John’s only potential runner in the race last weekend was Alnawiyah and sure enough, John has offered his inmate the green light. Just two favourites have prevailed via the last eleven renewals.

5.00: Favourites have won six of the last ten contests.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Switched Off is Ed McMahon’s only runner on the card and with the trainer boasting a 23% strike rate at the track, the seven-year-old could score for the yard.  Four of Ed’s last six runners had finished ‘in the three’ at the time of writing, statistics which include a 5/1 winner.

1.30 & 2.00 (two divisions): Six clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won via the last eighteen renewals, whilst fifteen of the eighteen jollies have secured toteplacepot positions.

2.30: Richard Hannon has won the race five times in the last fifteen years and the trainer is represented this time around by Baltic Knight.  Eight favourites have scored during the last decade with the market leader coming into this year’s event on a six timer.

3.00: Three-year-olds have won four of the six renewals to date and with eight of the ten contenders representing the junior vintage, the ratio should improve further still.

3.35: Favourites of one description or another have won five of the last six contests.

4.10: Five of the last nine gold medallists have scored at 33/1--20/1--20/1--20/1--14/1 whilst seven of the last ten market leaders have failed to trouble the judge.  Horses carrying 9-3 or less have secured twelve of the last thirteen contests.

5.10: The last seven winners have carried 9-3 or more.

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2012

Stat of the Day 6/9

Stat of the Day 6/9

Stat of the Day, 6th September 2012

There was no disgrace yesterday as Wooden King gave us a pretty good run for our money and belied his 18/1 SP. If I'm a touch critical, then I'd say that jockey had him covered up for a little too long and he had to switch outside late on to get a run. He'd been held up for the majority of the race and took a little longer than we'd like in finding a clear run. That said, he finished strongly and despite coming home in 6th place, he was less than a length away from an E/W payout and less than 2 lengths from the winner.

But nearly doesn't payout, so we go again today in what looks a much tougher race. Twelve runners are set to tackle 6 furlongs on good ground for the Listed Dick Poole Fillies Stakes aka the...

3.15 Salisbury

Today's trainer in focus is Alan Jarvis: a trainer who doesn't seem to send many runners to Salisbury for some reason. In fact, just 2% of his total career output has competed at this scenic Wiltshire outpost. This is quite surprising really, as his recent record here is very good indeed. In fact, he has only sent 4 runners here in the last 12 months. Well I say 4, it should actually be 3, as one horse (Oetzi) has run twice in that time. And those 4 runners have returned form figures of 2112 with winners at 17/2 and 4/1.

The 2% output at Salisbury is mirrored in his 2yr olds too, having sent just 16 entries in his entire career to this track, but the record with those 2 yr olds is equally impressive: 4 wins and 4 places from the 16, generating a level stakes profit of 14.5pts. And so it is that he has two runners at Salisbury today and they are both two year olds.

His first runner goes in the 2.10 race: Martinas Delight (currently 10/1 BOG), she's quite probably the form pick in that race, but over half the field enter the contest as unknown quantities and whilst there's every chance she'll go well today, we'll look elsewhere for our official selection. The race we've chosen is the feature race at the meeting and is a decent quality Listed race, where Alan runs Diaminda for us.

Diaminda was impressive on her debut at Doncaster (29/06/12) when finishing second at 40/1 over today's 6 furlong trip and she followed that up with a nice win at Ascot almost three weeks ago. 6 furlongs is the right trip for her and she looked like she'd plenty to spare last time out. She's a half-sister to Fayr Jag who was a decent sprinter at this trip too: 10 wins and 10 places from 50.

This race is a step up for her and this is reflected in the bookies odds where Diaminda is currently available at 8/1 BOG with betVictor and Boylesports and I think that price represents decent E/W value today. But, as always, please feel free to...

Click here for the latest odds for the 3.15 Salisbury.

Well I Declare: 6th September

Well I Declare: 6th September

Well I Declare: 6th September

Good Morning, there's plenty of racing action planned for today. Mal Boyle's main focus is on the meeting at Salisbury, but we've also got the important stats and facts for Haydock, Kempton and Sedgefield for you.

THURSDAY 06/09:

Haydock:

General stats: Paul D’Arcy (3/5) and William Jarvis (4/11) are alternative trainers to consider if you want to look beyond Roger Varian’s impressive 34% strike rate via figures of 12/35 since taking over the license from Michael Jarvis not so long ago.

Amateur rider event scheduled for 5.10: Favourites have secured a medal of each colour via just the three renewals thus far.  This is another meeting during this ‘silly season’ (after a Bank Holiday wreaks havoc on the sport from a ‘corresponding fixture’ perspective).

 

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Salisbury:

General stats: Whilst the Sir Henry Cecil media bandwagon is dominated by Frankel (was there ever any doubt that the champion would run in the relevant event at Ascot next?), it’s as well to focus on Henry’s record at ’lesser venues’ like here at Salisbury where the trainer boasts a 30% strike rate in recent years.

Novice event for juveniles scheduled for 2.10: Six of the last nine favourites have obliged, the other gold medallists having been sent off at 7/4, 9/4 & 6/1.  Richard Hannon is the only trainer to have saddled two recent winners and the trainer was responsible for four of the sixteen five-day declarations last weekend.

Juvenile maiden event for fillies due to be contested at 2.40: Four clear market leaders and one joint favourite have scored via the last eighteen renewals (many of which were spilt via divisions) whilst three of the last nine contests have been snared by horses starting at 66/1 and 33/1 (twice).  Fifteen of the nineteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions during the period.

Listed juvenile event for fillies over six furlongs scheduled for 3.15: Five favourites have won in the last fourteen years, whilst the biggest priced winner during the study period was a 10/1 chance.  Ten of the gold medallists have won at 7/2 or less, whilst eight of the sixteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Seven furlong Class 2 handicap scheduled for fillies/mares at 3.45: Three-year-olds have won ten of the last fourteen renewals of this event, whilst eleven of the last thirteen gold medallists have carried weights of 9-2 or less.  Four favourites have won during the last fifteen years, whilst eleven of the eighteen market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions.

Fourteen furlong conditions event set for 4.20: Four-year-olds have secured five of the last nine renewals.  Three clear market leaders and one joint favourite have won during the last six years, the other gold medallists having been returned at 7/1 and 4/1 for good measure.  Indeed, the biggest priced winners during the last decade were two 4/1 scorers.

Apprentice event scheduled for 5.20: Three and four-year-olds have (equally) shared four of the six renewals to date during the which time, two favourites have prevailed.  Three and four-year-old representatives have secured six win and place positions apiece from just eighteen opportunities.

 

Kempton:

General stats: There is little to add to what seems like a weekly comment that Frankie Dettori and Saeed Bin Suroor continue to dominate the sport at the Sunbury circuit.

 

Sedgefield:

General stats: Jason Maguire’s 26% strike rate owes much to the training talent of Donald McCain.  Meanwhile, any runners hailing from Lawney Hill’s stable should be kept on the right side given her 3/3 ratio at Sedgefield!

Well I Declare: 31st August

Well I Declare: 31st August

Well I Declare: 31st August

Good Morning everyone, we've a busy day ahead of us and here's a quick recap of Mal Boyle's Stats and trends for today's action from Salisbury, Sandown, Thirsk, Wolverhampton and Bangor...

FRIDAY 31/08:

Further interruption to the service on Friday as trends for Sandown and Salisbury (alongside the other potential venues) are only conspicuous by their absence.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Price has saddled an average of fourteen winners a year of late whereby his current total of six is a disappointing return.  Richard’s record at Salisbury offers hope for potential investors however as the trainer boasts a 26% strike rate via five winners during the last five years, statistics which have yielded twenty points of level stake profits for good measure. 

 

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Sandown:

General stats: Sir Mark Prescott (33%) and Jeremy Noseda (32%) lead the potential trainers at the meeting from a strike rate perspective. 

 

Thirsk:

General stats: I doubt that Kieren Fallon will take up the option of one ride he had booked at the track as Sandown held more engagements for the ex champion at the time of writing.  That said, I should point out Kieren’s 3/5 ratio at Thirsk for future meetings.

One mile juvenile event scheduled for 2.10: Trainers do not help the cause at times because Mick Channon has saddled three winners of this event when represented in the contest and yes you guessed it, Mick did not have a runner involved at the five day stage!  I have left the information in the analysis for your convenience for the 2013 contest.  Only one of the four short priced favourites has even reached the frame (an 8/13 chance) with the winners being returned at 11/3-5/1-12/1-18/1 to date.

Two mile handicap event scheduled for 2.40: Both favourites have finished out of the (short field) frames thus far behind 7/1 and 11/2 winners.

Three-year-old handicap over six furlongs scheduled for 3.50: Two of the three favourites (including an 11/4 winner) have secured toteplacepot positions to date.

Classified event over six furlongs due to be contested at 4.25: Two of the three favourites have finished in the frame, statistics which include a successful 4/6 market leader.

Class 4 seven furlong handicap scheduled for 4.55: The only favourite to secure a toteplacepot position via four renewals to date was the winner of one of the two divisions of the 2010 contest at odds of 4/1.

 

Wolverhampton:

General stats: William Knight held two options on the card at the time of writing, boasting a 26% strike rate at Wolverhampton via eleven winners during the last five years.

 

Bangor:

General stats: Richard Johnson leads Tony McCoy from both a strike rate and a level stake profit perspective at Bangor, recording respective figures of 26% and thirty-three points during the last five years.  Martin Todhunter’s 24% strike rate (4/17) is worth noting, especially as the trainer has secured an LSP figure of nine points into the bargain.

Well I Declare, 16th August

Well I Declare: 16th August

Well I Declare: 16th August

Thursday looks a busy day with no less than six meetings on the horizon. I've just brought you a quick recap of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the scheduled action from Beverley, Chepstow, Newmarket, Salisbury, Fontwell & Stratford. All taken, of course, from Mal's comprehensive Tuesday morning's Well I Declare article.


THURSDAY 16/08:

Beverley:

General stats: Only one of the seven races went the way of a market leader on the Thursday card last year, the other six winners ranging in price between 6/1 and 33/1. 

 

Chepstow:

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General stats: Punters are due a better day than on this card last year as the winners scored at 28/1-16/1-16/1-14/1-13/2-11/2-11/4* on what was perfect (good) going whereby there were no excuses made on account of the ground. The toteplacepot dividend of £2,421.40 told the story as just two favourites finished in the frame via the opening six races.  Sir Mark Prescott and Peter Chapple-Hyam lead the percentage table of the potentially represented trainers on Thursday.

 

Newmarket:

General stats: This is the start of a three-day meeting which produced a strike rate of 35.0% of winning favourites (7/20) twelve months ago.  Peter Chapple-Hyam (22/1 & 6/1) and Mahmood Al Zarooni (8/1 & Evens--17/1 double on the final day of the fixture) were the only trainers to saddled two winners.  All seven winners on the first day were recorded in single figures, ranging between 8/11 & 9/1.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Richard Hannon saddled a winner on each day of the meeting twelve months ago, opening the two-day fixture with a successful 15/8 favourite before winning the penultimate race on the Thursday via an 8/1 chance. 

 

Fontwell:

General stats: We have been starved on NH action of late whereby I will report the leading trainers (ratios) in August according to my records: 5/11-Tim Vaughan---3/16-Lucinda Russell---2/6-Donald McCain---2/4--Richard Woollacott---2/5--Philip Hobbs

 

Stratford:

General stats: Thursday was not a fortunate day for the majority of punters twelve months ago because alongside the poor results at Chepstow, all six favourites were beaten at Stratford, with winners going off at 33/1-25/1-8/1-11/2-5/1-7/2. Charlie Longsdon boasts a 34% strike rate at the track, statistics which have produced nearly twenty-two points of level stake profits.  Daniel Mark Loughnane has scored with both representatives at the track thus far, securing an LSP figure of twenty-one points.  Daniel held two options earlier in the week for this meeting.

Well I Declare, 15th August

Well I Declare: 15th August

Well I Declare: 15th August

Good Morning, we've just the four meetings to cover today, as action takes place at Beverley, Kempton, Salisbury & Southwell.
Here's a quick reminder of Mal Boyle's thoughts on the day's proceedings.


WEDNESDAY 15/08:

Beverley:

General stats: Sir Michael Stoute saddled an 86/1 treble on Saturday and the trainer boasts a great 6/13 record here at Beverley in recent times.  Tracy Waggott is another handler to keep on the right side given her LSP figure of twelve points which have been gained via a 22% strike rate.  Last year’s two day meeting got off to a great start for Mel Brittain who saddled a 359/1 treble on the card. 

2.15: Three of the four favourites (winners of their respective races) have secured toteplacepot positions thus far. The other winner scored at 50/1, just to keep your feet well and truly on the ground!

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2.45: Although only two of the last nine renewals have been claimed by favourites, eight of the ten favourites have finished in the frame.  Seven winners have scored at odds of 7/2 or less during the last decade.

3.15:  All four winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less, whilst three of the six market leaders have finished in the money (one winner) via four renewals to date.

3.50: Six of the last seven winners have carried a minimum weight of 8-12, whilst five-year-old have secured three of the last five renewals.  Five favourites have won during the last eleven years, during which time nine of the fourteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions.

4.25:  The last five winners have carried weights of 9-4 or more, whilst five-year-olds come to the gig on a four timer.  Seven of the last eleven winners were returned in double figures, with prices ranging from 10/1 to 50/1.  No favourite has prevailed during the last decade, whilst five market leaders have secured toteplacepot positions in the process.

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Kieran Fallon stands tall in the saddle via his 34% strike rate figure at Salisbury, statistics which have produced twenty-one points of level stake profits.  As far as trainers are concerned, Alan King (6/24), Richard Price (5/19) and Alastair Lidderdale (2/5) and names to consider.  Five of the six favourites scored on last year’s corresponding card.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Nicole Nordblad is mentioned in despatches for the first time in this service, given that the jockey sits on the 20% mark (good figures for this venue) via eight winners.

 

Southwell:

General stats: James Tate is one of the (serious) new trainers to consider, his raiders here having achieved 4/7 status. 

Trainer Stats: 15th Aug 2012

Tregoning Horses Are Hitting The Mark

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Trainer Stats: 26th July 2012

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Well I Declare: June 27th 2012

Well, I Declare! 27th June 2012

Well, I Declare! 27th June 2012

Today's action comes from Bath, Carlisle, Salisbury, Kempton & Worcester.

WEDNESDAY 27/6:

Bath:

General stats: Robert Cowell has saddled two of his three runners to winning effect at Bath to date. 

 

Carlisle:

General stats: Edwin Tuer boasts a strike rate of 44% via figures of 4/9, statistics which have produced a level stake profit of twenty-one points. 

 

Salisbury:

General stats: Salisbury is yet another track where Roger Varian has started well (3/10 to date), whilst this is Richard Price country (as is most of the south-west from a value for money perspective), the trainer boasting a 31% strike rate (5/16) in recent years.

2.20: Eight clear favourites have won alongside a joint market leader during the last 15 years. 12 of the 16 favourites secured toteplacepot positions in the process.  10 of the last 11 winners were returned at odds of 8/1 or less.

3.50: Six favourites have won via thirteen renewals to date, whilst twelve of the thirteen winners were returned at 7/1 or less.  Thirteen of the four market leaders have been successful from a toteplacepot perspective.

4.25: Five-year-olds have won five of the last seven renewals of this contest, whilst three of the last five favourites (of one sort or another) have obliged.

4.55: Seven of the eleven winners of the ’Bibury Cup’ since the turn of the Millennium have carried weights of 9-1 or more, stats which include the last four of the last five gold medallists. Ten of the last fifteen favourites have secured toteplacepot positions (three winners).  Successful favourites were only conspicuous by their absence during the last decade.

5.25: Seven of the nine winners have carried weights of 8-13 or less to date, whilst ten of the fourteen favourites have claimed toteplacepot positions, with two market leaders having snared the gold rosette.

 

Kempton:

General stats: Ibtahaj is the only Saeed Bin Suroor runner at Kempton on Wednesday (the trainer boasts a 33% strike rate at the venue in recent times), the yard now being back to form after a quiet start to the season.

 

Worcester:

General stats: Anthony Honeyball enjoys a level stake profit of seventy-one points here at Worcester via a 31% strike rate relating to his 9/23 ratio).

Trainer Stats: 14th June 2012

Cecil Heading To Ascot In Form

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Tregoning's Horses On The Mark......

With 5 winners from his last 12 runners Marcus Tregoning's horses are in cracking form at present. Read more

Trainer Stats: 17th May 2012

Nicky Henderson is one of many NH trainers taking advantage of the current wet conditions around the country. Read more