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Sat TV Trends: 23rd Jan 2021

It’s off to Haydock, Ascot and Taunton this Saturday for the LIVE ITV action.

At Ascot, the Grade One Clarence House Chase (3.35) is their feature contest – a race the classy Defi Du Seuil landed 12 months ago.

Then at Haydock, the Peter Marsh Chase (2.40) is their showcase race – a prize that trainer Sue Smith has won five times in the last 17 years.

While, a big day at Taunton too with the ITV cameras heading there to show their Weatherbys Portman Cup (2.15) - a race the Paul Nicholls-trained Yala Enki won 12 months ago.

So, like all big race days, we’ve got all the big races covered from a trends and stats angle – just these to narrow down the runners and find the best profiles based on past winners.

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)


1.15 – Matchbook Betting Podcast Mares´ Hurdle (Registered As The Warfield Mares´ Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
10/11 – Officially Rated 133 or higher
10/11 – From the top 4 in the betting
10/11 – Won over at least 2m5f (hurdles) previously
8/11 – Later ran in that season’s OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
8/11 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/11 – Ran at either Haydock (4) or Newbury (4) in their last race
7/11 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
7/11 – Favourites placed
7/11 – Won their last race
6/11 – Winning Favourites
4/11 – French bred
4/11 – Raced at Ascot previously
3/11 – Aged 6 years-old
2/11 – Trained by Harry Fry
2/11 - Later finished second in the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
1/11 – Won the OLBG Mares’ Only Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival) – Vroum Vroum Mag (2016)
Trainer Harry Fry won 2 of the last 6 runnings
Magic Light won the race in 2019 and 2020


1.50 – Matchbook Better Way To Bet Holloway´s Handicap Hurdle (Grade 3) Cl1 2m3f58y ITV4

11/13 – Aged 7 or younger
10/13 – Priced 5/1 or bigger in the betting
10/13 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
10/13 – Officially rated 139 or higher
10/13 – Carried 10-11 or more in weight
9/13 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
8/13 – Ran within in the last 4 weeks
7/13 – Winners from outside the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Went onto race in that season’s Coral Cup (best finish 3rd)
6/13 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles in the UK previously
6/13 – Won their last race
6/13 – Aged 6 years-old
6/13 – Had raced at Ascot previously
3/13 – Trained by David Pipe
3/13 – Raced at Cheltenham in their last race
2/13 – Later raced in that season’s World Hurdle (best finish 3rd)
2/13 – Ridden by Tom Scudamore
2/13 – Favourites (1 co)
Thomas Darby (8/1) won the race in 2020
Ballymoy (4/1) won the race in 2019

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Haydock

 

3.00 – bet365.com Handicap Chase Cl2 2m5f110y ITV4

Your first 30 days for just £1

13/14 – Won between 1-3 times over fences in the UK previously
12/14 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/14 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
12/14 – Either French (5) or Irish (7) bred
11/14 – Priced 8/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) previously
11/14 – Officially Rated 130 or higher
10/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
9/14 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
8/14 – From the top 3 in the betting
7/14 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
6/14 – Winning distance  - 6 lengths or further
5/14 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
4/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (2) or Chepstow (2) last time out
3/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls (3 of last 6 runnings)
3/14 – Won their last race
2/14 – Trained by Richard Rowe
2/14 – Winning Favourites
Domaine De L’Isle (5/1) won the race in 2020

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Lingfield
2005 – Renewal at Uttoxeter

 

3.35 – Matchbook Betting Exchange Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) Cl1 2m1f ITV

17/17 – Raced within the last 7 weeks
17/17 – Won at least 3 times (fences) previously
16/17 – Won by a horse aged 9 or younger
16/17 – Won a race over fences at 2m1f or further
15/17 – Winners from the top 3 in the betting market
15/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
15/17 – Favourites placed
13/17 – Won by a French-bred horse
12/17 – Won their last race
11/17 – Went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (4 winners)
11/17 – Raced at Sandown or Wetherby last time out
10/17 – Favourites that won
9/17 – Raced within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
7/17 – Won by a horse aged 8 years-old
5/17 – Had won the Tingle Creek Chase (Sandown) last time out
4/17 – Went onto win the Champion Chase that season (2009 - Master Minded, Sprinter Sacre 2013, 2014 Sire de Grugy, 2015 Dodging Bullets)
4/17 – Won by the Paul Nicholls stable (won the race 5 times in all)
3/17 – Trained by Willie Mullins
3/17 – Won by the Nicky Henderson stable (won the race 5 times in all)
2/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
Since 1989 there have only been 3 winners aged in double-figures
Since 1989 (28 runnings) there have been 12 winners aged 8 years-old

The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 3/1

Note:
2006 – Renewal at Sandown
2005 & 2017 – Renewals at Cheltenham

 

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

1.30 – Sky Bet Supreme Trial Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Rossington Main Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV

14/14 – Aged 7 or younger
14/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles previously
13/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
13/14 – Priced 9/2 or shorter in the betting
9/14 – Won their last race
8/14 – Aged 5 years-old
7/14 – Winning Favourites
6/14 – Had raced at Haydock previously
4/14 -  Ran at Haydock last time out
4/14 – French bred
3/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle
2/14 – Ran at Ascot last time out
2/14– Trained by Venetia Williams
2/14 – Trained by Donald McCain Jnr
Stolen Silver (9/2) won the race in 2020

Note: 2004 Renewal was staged at Wetherby

2.40 - Peter Marsh Chase (A Limited Handicap) (Grade 2) Cl1 3m1f ITV

17/17 – Won on ground described as soft or worse previously
16/17 – Aged 8 or older
16/17 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
16/17 – Carried 11-3 or less in weight
15/17 – Had run within the last 36 days
12/17 – Won at least 3 times over fences previously
12/17 – Officially Rated 139 or higher
12/17 – Won at Haydock previously
12/17 – Carried 10-12 or less in weight
11/17 – Favourites unplaced
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Won before (fences) over at least 3m
9/17 – Won between 3-5 times over fences before
9/17 – Aged either 8 or 9 years-old
9/17 – From outside the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Finished in the top 3 in their last race
9/17 – Won over fences at Haydock before
7/17 – Went onto finish unplaced in that season’s Grand National
7/17 – Ran at Wetherby last time out
6/17 – Raced in the Rowland Meyrick (Wetherby) last time out
6/17 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/17 – Trained by Sue Smith
4/17 – Ridden by Danny Cook
2/17 – Trained by the McCain stable
2/17 – Won their last race
2/17 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 17 runnings is 10/1

 

3.15 – The New One Unibet (Registered as the Champion Hurdle Trial) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

15/15 – Won at least twice over hurdles in the UK before
15/15 – Favourites placed in the top 3
13/15 -  From the top 3 in the betting
12/15 – Ran within the last 5 weeks
12/15 – Finished in the top three in their last race
12/15 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Champion Hurdle
12/15 – Priced 5/2 or shorter
12/15 – Officially Rated 150 or higher
11/15 – Won at least 3 times over hurdles previously
11/15 – Either French (3) or Irish (8) bred
11/15 – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (7) last time out
8/15 – Aged 7 or younger
8/15 – Winning Favourites
4/15 – Placed in the top 4 in that season’s Champion Hurdle (no winners)
3/15 – Won their last race
1/15 – Went onto win that season’s World Hurdle
Ballyandy (5/2) won this race in 2020

 

Taunton Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.10 – Weatherbys Portman Cup Chase (GBB Race) Cl2 (5yo+) 3m4 1/2f ITV4

2 previous runnings
Yala Enki (11/10 fav) won the race in 2020
Trainers Paul Nicholls and Colin Tizzard have won the race before
Trainer Kim Bailey has a 50% record with his chasers at the track
Trainer Tim Vaughan has a 20% record with his chasers at the track
Jockey Bryony Frost has a 27% record riding over fences at the track

 

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